Revenue Trends - In June 2024, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with a notable decline in tax revenue expanding by 2.4 percentage points to -8.5%[1] - Non-tax revenue significantly increased, contributing to a 3.9 percentage point rise compared to the previous month[1] - The overall fiscal revenue growth slowed down further in June, dropping 3 percentage points from May to -1.0%[1] Expenditure Insights - General public budget expenditure growth fell sharply by 5.6 percentage points in June to -3.0%, marking the lowest level since early 2022[1] - The main contributors to the negative growth in expenditure were health, education, and cultural sectors[1] - Government fund expenditure also saw a decline, with a year-on-year drop of 11.1% in June, continuing a trend of negative growth since the beginning of the year[1] Land and Property Market - Government fund income fell by 32.4% year-on-year in June, reaching a three-year low, with land transfer income decreasing by 35.3%[1] - The decline in land transfer income reflects a cautious attitude from developers despite recent policy relaxations aimed at boosting the real estate market[1] Debt and Financing - In June, local government debt financing increased significantly by 7.9 percentage points to 38.4%, although the pace of growth slowed compared to May[1] - The issuance of government bonds remained high, with an increase of 848.7 billion yuan year-on-year, but the growth rate has narrowed[1] Policy Implications - The report suggests that significant equipment upgrades and consumer product replacements are crucial for stimulating effective investment and domestic consumption[1] - There is a potential for expanding the general budget deficit in the second half of the year to further promote equipment upgrades and consumer product replacements[1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Views - The food and beverage sector has seen a significant reduction in fund holdings, returning to levels close to Q2 2017. The market value of food and beverage stocks held by funds decreased to 10.86% of total fund investments, down 3.13 percentage points from Q1 2024, reflecting a 22% quarter-on-quarter decline and a 14% year-on-year decline [1][6][7] - The report highlights that the white liquor sector is undergoing a deep adjustment and slow recovery, influenced by weak consumer demand and cyclical factors. The overall fundamentals of listed companies in the food and beverage sector are weak, leading to reduced holdings [1][6][10] - The report suggests that the valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a historically low level, with the sector's PE ratio at 19.81x, indicating potential investment value [2][6] Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Analysis - The food and beverage industry has experienced a significant reduction in fund holdings, with the current level being the lowest since Q2 2017. The fund's heavy holdings in food and beverage stocks have decreased to 10.86%, down 3.13 percentage points from Q1 2024 [6][10] - The white liquor sector saw a substantial reduction in holdings, with a current fund holding ratio of 9.9%, down 2.63 percentage points from the previous quarter [10][22] - Non-white liquor holdings have also reached a historical low, with a fund holding ratio of 0.96%, reflecting a 0.50 percentage point decrease [11][22] Individual Stock Allocation Analysis - The top ten holdings in the food and beverage sector remain stable, with companies like Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao consistently featured. The report notes that the positions of these companies have not changed significantly [19][20] - There are few instances of increased allocations, with only a couple of stocks in the white liquor sector seeing slight increases, while most others have decreased [22][25] Hong Kong Stock Connect Allocation Analysis - The report indicates that foreign investment remains optimistic about the food sector, with the top ten holdings in the Hong Kong Stock Connect including companies like Yili and ChaCha Food [28][29] - The report notes a trend of increasing holdings in certain stocks like Three Squirrels and Xianle Health, while reducing positions in others like Dongpeng Beverage [28][29]

Group 1 - The report highlights the recent monetary policy adjustments by the People's Bank of China (PBOC), including a 10 basis points (BP) reduction in the 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.7%, and corresponding reductions in the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) to 3.35% and 3.85% respectively, marking a significant shift in policy approach [1][1][1] - The adjustments aim to optimize the open market operation mechanism and enhance the transmission of monetary policy, reflecting the directives from the recent Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee [1][1][1] - The report indicates that the PBOC is moving towards a more neutral counter-cyclical transmission mechanism, with a focus on steepening the yield curve while addressing the declining credit demand [1][1][1] Group 2 - The report notes that the PBOC's decision to maintain the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate unchanged while lowering the reverse repo and LPR rates is intended to strengthen the policy rate's attributes and reduce market expectations for unilateral long-term rate cuts [1][1][1] - The introduction of a framework allowing MLF participants to apply for a reduction in collateral requirements aims to increase the supply of long-term government bonds, which is expected to support the steepening of the yield curve [1][1][1] - The report suggests that the current monetary easing measures are more of a passive response to the slowing growth in Q2 rather than a proactive stimulus for high investment growth, indicating a shift in the PBOC's strategy [1][1][1]

风险提示：数据统计口径有所误差，历史经验未来不一定适用，政策超预期变化 3 / 11 图 4: 2024Q2 主板超配比有所下降 主板 -- 创业板 -- 科创板 -- 北交所 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 旗 下 网 企 医药、电新仓位均有所下降。(1)仓位角度,医药行业和电新行业均处于持仓高位。具体来 看： 首先，医药和电力设备行业均为公募基金持仓商位行业，持仓排名分别位于全行业第２高、 第 3 高。其次，医药行业 2024Q2 仓位为 11.2%，持仓水平处于历史中性位置；电力设备行业仓 位为 10.1%,持仓水平处历史高位。(2)持仓变化趋势角度,医药行业仓位继续回落,电新行业 也继续回落。具体来看:医药行业在 4个季度维持加仓趋势后至 2024Q1 触底大幅回落,仓位下 降 3.4pcts，减仓幅度行业 TOP4; 电力设备行业反弹回落, 当前下降了 0.8pcts。(3)超配比变 化角度,医药和电新行业处于行业超配高位。医药行业当前超配比为 4.62%，为全行业第 3 高, 电力设备行业当前超配比为 4.63%,为全行业第 2 高;趋势上,医药行业超配比下降幅度 0. ...

上海规划 29.3GW 深远海风电+广西拟启动 6.5GW 海风竞配,看好国内外海风景气提升 事件点评 近日,上海市政协召开"推进能源结构转型,助推上海实施双碳战略"重点提案 专题督办办理推进会。从会上获悉,深远海风电是上海市未来可持续开发的最大 绿电资源宝库,上海市市发改委已编制规划并获得国家批复,总规模 2930 万千 瓦,全部建成后每年可提供约 1000 亿千瓦时绿电。 7 月 19 日,国家能源招标网发布《国电电力广西风电开发有限公司海上风电竞 争性配置技术服务公开招标项目招标公告》。公告显示,本次广西北海海上风电 竞争性配置拟于近期组织开展,本次海上风电竞争性配置技术咨询服务基于广西 壮族自治区北海市南面海域的 N、P 场址,N 场址(N1、N2、N3、N34、N4、 N51、N52)规划容量 570 万千瓦,P 场址规划容量 80 万千瓦,各场址中心离 岸直线距离约 94~120km,水深约 15~45m。 海上风电迈向"深蓝",深远海趋势明确。根据国家批复的各省份海上风电规划, 海上风电总量超过 3 亿千瓦,其中 90%以上为常规意义上的深海或远海风电项 目。2024 年以来,浙江、广东、海南等 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the semiconductor industry, indicating expected returns to exceed the market by over 10% in the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the performance of niche storage manufacturers in Taiwan is continuously improving, signaling the arrival of an upward industry cycle expected to last for two years [1]. - In Q2 2024, major Taiwanese storage companies such as Macronix and Winbond reported significant revenue increases, with Macronix achieving a revenue of NT$6.456 billion, a 12.08% increase quarter-over-quarter, while Winbond's revenue reached NT$21.778 billion, reflecting a 6.77% quarter-over-quarter growth [1]. - Nanya Technology reported a revenue of NT$9.921 billion in Q2 2024, marking a 41.18% year-over-year increase and a 4.40% quarter-over-quarter increase, with a gross margin of 2.9%, the first positive margin since 2023 [1]. - The report anticipates growth in the PC market by 5% to 10% in 2024, with the smartphone market expected to recover from a three-year downturn, projecting single-digit growth [1]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - Macronix's Q2 2024 revenue was NT$6.456 billion, down 13.10% year-over-year but up 12.08% quarter-over-quarter, ending a three-quarter decline [1]. - Winbond's Q2 2024 revenue was NT$21.778 billion, up 14.21% year-over-year and 6.77% quarter-over-quarter, marking two consecutive quarters of growth [1]. - Nanya Technology's Q2 2024 revenue was NT$9.921 billion, with a gross margin of 2.9%, the first positive margin since 2023 [1]. Market Outlook - The report indicates that the industry is entering an upward cycle, with expectations for continued improvement in 2025 [1]. - The demand for storage products is expected to rise due to recovery in downstream markets, particularly in consumer electronics and networking sectors, driven by new applications such as Wi-Fi 7 [1]. - The report recommends stocks such as Zhaoyi Innovation, Beijing Junzheng, and Dongxin Technology as potential investment opportunities [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [31]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in domestic semiconductor demand and the recovery of the foreign semiconductor market, with projected revenue for Q2 2024 reaching between 1.48 billion to 1.53 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 78.63% to 84.66% [31][32]. - The planned acquisition of Yisheng Precision is expected to strengthen the company's semiconductor component platform, enhancing product, customer, and technology synergies [31][32]. - The company has completed nearly 1,800 types of domestic material component verifications, indicating a strong position in the domestic semiconductor supply chain [31][32]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 3.131 billion, 4.266 billion, and 5.015 billion yuan, with growth rates of 51.6%, 36.3%, and 17.6% respectively [33]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 308 million, 440 million, and 561 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 82.5%, 42.8%, and 27.6% respectively [33]. - The report highlights a decrease in gross margin for 2023 to 25.2%, with an expected recovery to 29.1% in 2024 [33].

食品及饲料添加剂 行业快报 维生素格局良好,供给扰动价格上行 投资要点 事件:据今日维生素,近期多个维生素品种价格出现明显上涨态势。截止 7 月 19 日,花园生物、新和成 VD3 产品价格 195 元/kg,较上周(160 元/kg)、月初(98 VE 产品价格 100 元/kg,较上周(91 元/kg)、月初(83 元/kg)和年初(60 元/kg) 30.7%。 元/kg)和年初(60 元/kg)分别上涨 21.9%、99.0%、225.0%;浙江医药、新和成 分别上涨 9.9%、20.5%、66.7%;浙江医药、新和成等 VA 产品价格 98 元/kg,较 较上周(98 元/kg)、月初(92 元/kg)和年初(75 元/kg)分别上涨 0.0%、6.5%、 维生素作用重要,市场稳步增长。维生素是人和动物生长必须摄取的微量有机 物质,在生物体生长、代谢、发育过程中发挥着重要的作用。这类物质在体内既 不是构成身体组织的原料,也不是能量的来源,而是一类调节物质,在物质代谢 中起重要作用。据中商产业研究院,在维生素行业各细分品种中,维生素 B 族、 维生素 E、维生素 C 和维生素 A 市场份额最大,分别为 ...

食品饮料 行业周报 重仓比例大幅下降,水平回至 17Q2 附近 投资要点 行情回顾:上周食品饮料(申万)行业上涨 3.33%,在 31 个子行业中排名第 2 位,跑赢上证综指 2.96pct,跑赢创业板指 0.85pct。二级(申万)子板块对比, 上周各板块除休闲食品外均有不同程度上涨,其中白酒涨幅领先,上涨 3.72%, 食品加工次之,上涨 3.57%,休闲食品则下跌 0.77%。三级子行业中预加工食 品涨幅第一,上涨 5.94%,白酒次之,上涨 3.72%,零食表现最差,下跌 1.75%。 上周大事: 24Q2 食品饮料行业大幅减仓,持仓占比回归至近 17Q2 水平。24Q2 基金重仓 持有的食品饮料股票市值占基金重仓投资总市值的 10.86%,环比 24Q1 下降 3.13pct(环比下降 22%),同比 23Q2 下降了 1.75pct(同比下降 14%)。 从持仓占比的绝对数据来看,24Q2 食品饮料持仓占比已处于历史低位,从数据 层面来讲,历史上重仓占比低于 10%的时间段为 13Q4-17Q2,目前食品饮料重 仓已接近 10%,回归至 17Q2 左右水平,我们认为持仓水平与食品饮料基本面 有正向 ...

新股专题 对于本周即将上市的新股，截止最新，本周共有 2 只新股完成申购待上市；其中，2 只均为 创业板。以本周已完成申购的待上市注册制新股来看，假设以 2023 年归母净利润计算，平均绝 对发行市盈率约为 18.8X。比较来看，当前新股首日再定价总体趋于相对充分，假设标的暂无事 件或政策预期催化，短暂交易日内还是应当警惕可能的波动风险。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------|----------|----------|---------------------|----------------------------|----------------------|----------------------|-----------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------------------------| | 代码 | 简称 | 所属行业 | 2023 年收 入-万元 | 2023 年归 母 ...