= 内容目录 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 近一周以来，发达经济体各项重点经济数据相继发布，加之欧央行 7 月货币政策会议召开， 共同驱动美元指数周内产生剧烈波动。我们将在本周周报中对此及美联储降息展望进行详细分析。 图 1：美元兑日元汇率与欧元兑美元汇率对比（红色虚线框内为日本央行直接干预汇率时段） 资料来源：CEIC，华金证券研究所 定期报告 6 月日本核心 CPI 小幅反弹，是趋势改善还是如履薄冰？ 资料来源：CEIC，华金证券研究所 资料来源：CEIC，华金证券研究所 注：2020.3-2022.2 为两年平均增速 实际上内需不足是当前非美发达经济体普遍面临的核心困难，近期公布的英国商品零售同 比增速大幅下行，欧元区核心 HICP 再度降温，也同样指向非美发达经济体或已普遍面临新一轮 增长停滞的泥沼。英国于当地时间 7 月 19 日和 7 月 17 日分别公布的 6 月零售销售同比和核心 CPI 同比，前者大幅下行 2.1 个百分点至 0.6%、后者持平于 2.0%低位；欧央行 6 月核心 HICP 也再度降温 0.1 个百分点至 2.8%。内需严重不足导致欧、英、日核心通胀同比从年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the semiconductor equipment industry [1]. Core Insights - The lithography industry is undergoing an upgrade driven by light sources, numerical aperture, process coefficients, and machine capabilities. The resolution is determined by the wavelength of the light source, numerical aperture, and lithography process factors [2]. - The industry is characterized by a stable "one strong, two leaders" pattern, with new wafer fabs and production line expansions driving demand for lithography machines. EUV lithography is growing the fastest, while KrF and i-line remain the main demand types [2][3]. - Domestic companies are making strides in technology, with significant advancements in laser light sources and optical systems, indicating a potential for overcoming international monopolies [3]. Summary by Sections 01 Lithography: Core Process in Integrated Circuit Manufacturing - Lithography involves using optical-chemical reactions to transfer circuit patterns onto substrates, with key tools being lithography machines, photoresists, and masks [17]. - The lithography machine functions like a nano-level printer, projecting patterns from a mask onto a silicon wafer [18]. - Photoresists undergo chemical changes upon exposure to light, allowing for the transfer of patterns from the mask to the substrate [21]. 02 Technology: Driving Upgrades in the Lithography Industry - The resolution of lithography machines is influenced by the light source wavelength, numerical aperture, and process coefficients [2]. - Key technologies include EUV light sources, which are dominated by Cymer and Gigphoton, and advancements in optical components and manufacturing precision [2][3]. 03 Market: Demand Driven by New Wafer Fabs and Production Line Expansions - The global demand for lithography machines is expected to rise due to the establishment of new wafer fabs, particularly in China, which is projected to have 50 large fabs by the end of 2024 [3]. - The semiconductor market is anticipated to exceed $1 trillion by 2030, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and other technologies [3]. 04 Breaking the Bottleneck: Learning from Others - ASML remains the absolute leader in the lithography machine industry, with a strong focus on R&D and strategic acquisitions to maintain its technological edge [4]. - Domestic companies are increasingly focusing on independent technology development, with several firms making significant progress in laser and optical technologies [3]. 05 Related Companies - Key players in the lithography supply chain include Chipbond Technology (direct-write lithography), Fuchuang Precision (components), and Shanghai Micro Electronics (complete machines) [5].

超预期的：发展和安全并重，强调坚定不移实现全年经济社会发展目标、扩内需。 （1）本次会议强调发展与安全并重：一是将建设高水平社会主义市场经济体制、 高质量发展放在中国式现代化建设的首位，而国家安全、国防和军队现代化建设放 在最后强调；二是强调坚定不移实现全年经济社会发展目标，表明全年 5%左右的 经济增长目标在下半年会进一步发力完成。（2）扩内需是政策发力的重点。一是 会议强调要积极扩大国内需求：首先，海外经济放缓以及特朗普当选概率上升可能 使我国外需放缓；其次，国内地产偏弱、居民收入预期偏低导致内需偏弱。二是下 半年财政发力等扩内需的政策仍有空间：首先可比口径下 1-5 月专项债发行规模总 计 1.9 万亿，去年同期为 2.3 万亿；其次上半年基建投资增速、社零增速偏低。 底部区域不悲观，短期反弹来临 2024.7.9 新股二级交投暂时性低迷，重大时间临近或 将成为短期情绪转折点-华金证券新股周报 2024.7.7 深化改革，关注科技和扩内需 事件点评 投资要点 重点强调的：改革和中国式现代化建设，着力点包括财税金融体制改革、支持民营 经济、科教兴国和创新发展等。（1）改革和中国式现代化建设是当前的时代背景 ...

44 主题报告 图表目录 2 / 10 一、总目标：社会主义现代化强国和二〇三五目标的三大支柱 2）经济实力跃升，人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平。十九届五中全会首次提出这 一目标，二十大报告中再度给予了确认和强调。国际上和理论研究界，往往将达到美国人均 GDP 的 30%以上作为中等发达国家水平的基本门槛。考虑到美国作为全球最大的经济体、最大的发 达国家和当前较为全面地掌握全球先进生产力的国家，仍在不断试图通过其国内经济政策组合和 对国际经济贸易规则进行有利于其本国经济的修改而试图获得相对较高的经济增长，2035 年达 到人均国内生产总值中等发达国家水平的目标，实际上同时意味着我国实际经济增速和本币汇率 尽量取得长期的同步高增是最为重要的。战后数十年的全球经济发展史已经充分证明，制造业高 图 1："制造业高级化"推动持续赶超，"过早去工业化"则陷入"中等收入陷阱" 资料来源：CEIC，华金证券研究所 《公报》指出，高质量发展是全面建设社会主义现代化国家的首要任务，强调要健全因地 制宜发展新质生产力体制机制，科技创新引领的新发展模式将作为我国长期经济战略蓝图的重 要基础。"全会提出，高质量发展是全面建设社 ...

http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 6 / 11 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 7 / 11 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 膜版企业。公司创始人及多名核心技术人员在掩膜版领域具备丰富从业经验，带领公司成为国内 领先的独立第三方半导体掩膜版企业之一，据一轮审核问询函回复披露，2022 年龙图光罩在中 国大陆半导体独立第三方掩模市场中占国产厂商的份额约为 13.19%-26.39%。公司主要以特色 工艺半导体市场为切入点，在部分制程节点上成功实现国产替代，与中芯集成、士兰微、积塔半 导体、华虹半导体、新唐科技、比亚迪半导体、立昂微等国内主流晶圆厂达成稳定合作；其中， 士兰微、立昂微、华虹半导体均通过关联方持有公司股份。 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 8 / 11 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------- ...

IP 授权盛会召开,优质内容助力文娱发展 投资要点 事件:7 月 16 日,中国国际授权业峰会成功举办。7 月 17 日,第七届全球授权 展·上海站在国家会展中心开幕。展会同期举行多场专题论坛活动,包括中国国 际授权业峰会(CLC)、中国授权业论坛、合作伙伴大会等权威行业活动。系列 展会打破行业壁垒,推动行业联动创新与发展。 IP 集中亮相展会,全球授权市场多元化发展。展会展出面积达 4.8 万平米,较 2021 年增长 37%;汇聚展商 350 余家,1800+个 IP,设立动漫&形象&游戏& 文学、影视及传媒、品牌及代理、文博及艺术、潮流生活 5 大主题板块。会展 不仅包括环球、华纳、腾讯、优酷、芒果 TV 等知名授权商和喜羊羊、熊出没、 哆拉 A 梦、三丽鸥等国内外知名 IP,还包括故宫博物院、吴文化博物馆等国风 IP,充分展现授权业市场的多元性和丰富度。多个圆桌论坛分会场汇聚行业大咖, 探讨品牌联动 IP 多维度赋能营销。合作伙伴大会邀请包括阿里鱼、优酷少儿、 奥飞娱乐、梦之城等 IP 产业权威嘉宾分析行业洞见,探讨行业发展。 IP 价值在全球市场日益显著。据国际授权业协会(Licensing Int ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1][7][38]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the geotechnical engineering sector, focusing on key areas such as nuclear power and water conservancy, with a significant improvement in gross margins observed [1][25]. - The company has successfully turned around its performance, achieving a net profit of 18.91 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 113.13% [1][25]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on "core technology + core materials" to drive growth in national strategic sectors, including nuclear power and water conservancy [21][25]. Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 1.7 to 2.21 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 194.72% to 283.14% [1]. - Revenue for 2023 was 916 million yuan, with a projected increase to 1.1 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 20% [6][18]. - The gross margin for the company improved to 17.22% in 2023, with further increases expected in the coming years [1][40]. Business Segments - The geotechnical engineering segment generated revenue of 700 million yuan in 2023, with a projected growth of 23% in 2024 [6][40]. - The environmental remediation segment is expected to generate stable revenue, with projections of 37 million yuan in 2024 [5][40]. - Product sales saw a significant increase, achieving 178 million yuan in 2023, with a projected growth of 10% in the following years [6][40]. Market Opportunities - The company has secured a benchmark nuclear power project, which is expected to open new growth avenues in the context of energy supply and green transition [2]. - The report notes that China's nuclear power generation capacity is expected to grow significantly, providing a substantial market opportunity for the company [2][25]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for geotechnical engineering services in the nuclear power sector, with an estimated annual demand of 15 billion yuan [2][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company, indicating a positive long-term outlook despite a slight adjustment in earnings forecasts due to Q2 performance being slightly below expectations [2][3]. Core Insights - The company is pursuing a dual-driven strategy, with a solid foundation in its brewing business and potential growth in its ready-to-drink segment. The report anticipates that the ready-to-drink products will gradually release performance elasticity as successful pilot markets are established nationwide, alongside diversified channel expansion and increased marketing efforts [2][3]. - The revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been slightly adjusted, with expected revenues of 42.09 billion, 48.61 billion, and 55.13 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16.1%, 15.5%, and 13.4%. The adjusted net profit forecasts are 3.37 billion, 4.16 billion, and 4.93 billion yuan, with growth rates of 20.3%, 23.2%, and 18.5% respectively [2][3]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company reported a revenue of 3.625 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 15.9%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 4.209 billion, 4.861 billion, and 5.513 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of 16.1%, 15.5%, and 13.4% [6][10]. - The net profit for 2023 was 280 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 31%. The projected net profits for the next three years are 337 million, 416 million, and 493 million yuan, with growth rates of 20.3%, 23.2%, and 18.5% [6][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 37.5% in 2023 to 38.5% by 2026, indicating a positive trend in profitability [6][10].

业绩持续超预期,改革红利加速释放 事件: 公司发布 2024 年上半年业绩预告,预计 24H1 实现归母净利润 7.19-7.97 亿元,同比 增长 40%-55%,实现扣非归母净利润 7-7.75 亿元,同比增长 60%-77%。单季度来看, 24Q2 公司实现归母净利润 6.19-6.94 亿元,同比增长 37%-55%,实现扣非归母净利 润 5.97-6.72 亿元,同比增长 56%-76%。 投资要点 利润分析:24Q2 延续 Q1 高增,预计大单品 U8 维持较快增速。公司 24Q2 实现 归母净利润 6.19-6.94 亿元(中值为 6.55 亿元),同比增长 37%-55%,实现扣非 归母净利润 5.97-6.72 亿元(中值为 6.35 亿元),同比增长 56%-76%。24Q2 是 公司上市以来最高单季度净利润,我们认为主要系 1)公司 Q2 大单品 U8 系列持 续放量,我们预计 Q2 U8 系列销量延续较快增速,推动产品结构升级延续;2)24 但销售及管理费用率或持续改善。 年公司主要原材料及包材的采购成本均有不同程度的下降,带动公司吨成本下行。 我们预计 24 年进口大麦价格较 23 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market" for the industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the CSI 300 Index by more than 10% over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The supply of micro-short dramas is abundant, with a trend towards quality content becoming prominent. In the first half of 2024, the domestic investment flow scale for micro-short dramas exceeded 11.6 billion yuan, with over 20,000 unique micro-short dramas participating in the investment flow, of which more than 13,500 were new dramas, accounting for approximately 68% [1]. - The user base for micro-short dramas has surpassed 500 million, with nearly 40% of users watching micro-short dramas regularly. Among these, 64.8% are aged 15-29, and 73.4% are female. Key factors influencing user preferences include production quality, storyline, and actor performance [1]. - The industry is expected to see a stable increase in box office revenue, with micro-short drama box office reaching 37.39 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 70% of the total box office for Chinese films. It is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2027 [1]. - The report highlights that the number of companies supplying micro-short dramas has exceeded 300,000, with a rich upstream supply chain including 229,000 professional short drama production companies [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In the first half of 2024, the average monthly investment flow for micro-short dramas was 8,259, with 2,240 new dramas released. The enthusiasm for content creation remains high, with 3,574 micro-short dramas planned for creation and 584 launched in 2023, representing growth of 382.2% and 445.8% compared to 2021, respectively [1]. User Engagement - The report notes that the demand for micro-short dramas continues to grow, with significant increases in paid users and viewing frequency on platforms like Douyin. The paid user base grew tenfold, and the next-day revisit rate increased by 50% [1]. Monetization Strategies - Current monetization strategies for micro-short dramas primarily include advertising marketing, paid subscriptions, copyright sharing, and e-commerce sales. Advertising marketing aimed at B-end clients and paid subscriptions for C-end users are the main sources of revenue [1]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the industry will continue to grow due to market demand, despite challenges such as increased competition and regulatory scrutiny. The development of AIGC technology is expected to enhance production efficiency and content quality [1].