Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1]. Core Insights - The trend of domestic innovative drugs accelerating their international expansion is becoming more pronounced, with significant mergers and acquisitions occurring, particularly in the dual-antibody sector [3]. - The upcoming results of the medical insurance negotiations are anticipated to support the development of innovative drugs, reflecting a dual adjustment in medical insurance policies [5]. - The rising positivity rate of influenza indicates an upcoming peak season for respiratory diagnostics, with increased demand expected [7]. - The market potential for domestic GLP-1 drugs is significant, with opportunities for overseas expansion as unmet needs in obesity and diabetes treatment remain high [9]. - The tightening supply of raw materials is expected to extend the prosperity cycle within the pharmaceutical sector [11]. - The retail pharmacy sector is undergoing a significant transformation, with a decline in the total number of stores expected to benefit leading companies [13]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a shift towards global markets, with a notable increase in license-out transactions, reflecting a growing trend of Chinese innovative drugs being selected for international markets [3]. Medical Insurance Policy - The recent medical insurance negotiations aim to enhance drug accessibility while balancing the financial sustainability of the insurance system, indicating a supportive stance towards innovative drug development [5]. Respiratory Diagnostics - The increase in influenza positivity rates suggests a peak in demand for respiratory diagnostics, with expectations for government procurement to ramp up as the flu season approaches [7]. GLP-1 Drug Market - The domestic GLP-1 market is expanding, with significant sales growth reported, and opportunities for local companies to enter international markets are increasing [9]. Raw Material Supply - The raw material supply for pharmaceuticals is tightening, leading to price increases and a sustained high level of industry prosperity, particularly in the vitamin sector [11]. Retail Pharmacy Dynamics - The retail pharmacy landscape is shifting, with a projected decline in the number of stores, which is expected to enhance the market share and profitability of leading pharmacy chains [13]. Stock Recommendations - The report suggests specific stock picks based on the anticipated positive developments in the pharmaceutical sector, including companies like Shanghai Yizhong and Xintai [15][19].

Group 1 - The core market driver is the confirmation of the Trump trade, leading to a collective adjustment in risk assets, with only the US dollar index rising. Key risk points include the possibility of not lowering interest rates, as indicated by Powell's hawkish remarks and a 53% probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan on December 19. The Trump trade is expected to continue until the first quarter of 2025, providing buying opportunities due to normal pullbacks from excessive concentration in gains. It is advisable to diversify investments into gold, the Nikkei, and US long-term bonds [4][22][24] - The expected decline in central bank gold purchases in 2025 may lead to a decrease in ETF inflows, with short-term downward pressure primarily from profit-taking on speculative positions. Gold is anticipated to find support near $2,500, and currently, gold, the US dollar index, and US stocks are inversely correlated, offering effective diversification opportunities. The Nikkei is expected to benefit most from the fiscal expansion of the Trump trade and a temporarily strong US dollar, providing a hedge against US stock risks. This week, Japan saw a net inflow of $800 million according to EPFR [24][25] Group 2 - In the A-share market, there was a net outflow of $500 million from northbound investments, while there was continued inflow into Hong Kong stocks. After the National Congress, northbound trading participants continued to sell, with net positions decreasing by 0.4% to 6.8%, indicating limited further downside potential [25] - The financing balance in the A-share market has risen to CNY 1.83 trillion, with financing buying intensity showing a double peak, second only to 2015. Domestic public funds began to slightly bottom-fish on November 12, starting to replenish positions sold on October 8. The second round of B rebound is mainly driven by high-leverage investors, and if financing buying intensity declines, the profit-making effect will decrease, leading to reduced trading volume. The support level to watch is 3,250, and if there is a rebound next week, attention should be paid to whether the upper level of 3,409 can be broken [26][27] - The report is bullish on industrial manufacturing, materials, discretionary consumption, staple consumption (rebound), energy (rebound), and pharmaceuticals (rebound) for November. Key industries to focus on include industrial manufacturing, consumption, debt restructuring, and inflation-related sectors [27][28] Group 3 - The report suggests maintaining a dividend and growth strategy, with a focus on semiconductor technology stocks as part of a broader investment strategy [33][36] - The industry outlook includes adding transportation and coal sectors while removing building materials and oil and petrochemicals. Key industries highlighted are electric equipment and new energy, food and beverage, non-ferrous metals, and electricity [37] - The report recommends the Media ETF (512980) and Information Security ETF (159613) as weekly top picks [38]

证 2024 年 11 月 17 日 告 行 研 究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------|------------------------------------|----------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including China Petroleum, Sinochem, and others [5][6][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that natural gas, dichloromethane, and liquid chlorine have seen significant price increases, while products like butadiene and natural rubber have experienced notable declines [1][25]. - It suggests continued focus on sectors such as petrochemicals, titanium dioxide, and tires, particularly as the industry enters a seasonal demand peak [3][25]. - The report emphasizes the potential for valuation recovery among leading companies in specific sub-industries, particularly those with strong cost advantages and stable competitive landscapes [3][25]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring low-valuation, high-dividend companies like China Petroleum due to recent declines in oil prices, which are expected to stabilize [23][25]. - It notes that while many chemical sub-industries have underperformed, sectors like tires and upstream mining (oil and gas extraction, phosphate mining) have shown resilience [3][25]. Price Movements - Significant price increases this week include natural gas (up 10.77%), dichloromethane (up 10.31%), and liquid chlorine (up 10.28%) [22][25]. - Conversely, products like toluene (down 3.36%), adipic acid (down 3.61%), and butadiene (down 7.52%) have seen declines [22][25]. Company Performance and Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for various companies, indicating expected EPS growth for firms like Sinochem and others, with a consistent "Buy" rating across the board [5][6][7]. - It highlights specific companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Longbai Group as key players to watch for potential investment opportunities [3][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [3]. Core Insights - The Double Eleven shopping festival has shown stable growth in the food and beverage sector, with a notable increase in sales for alcoholic beverages and dairy products [1][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong performance and low valuations, particularly in the liquor segment, where the recovery of sales is anticipated to depend on policy support and consumer confidence [1][5]. Weekly News Summary Industry News - A grain supply chain project for liquor production has been established in Luzhou. - A new liquor production project with an annual capacity of 3,000 tons has been set up in Jinan. - JD Supermarket reported a 45% increase in liquor sales during the Double Eleven event [12][17]. Company News - Guizhou Moutai appointed a new general manager for its sales company. - Wuliangye has seen over 1.1 million bottles of its second-generation Wuliangchun sold in the Lanzhou market. - Jinsiyuan plans to cancel 7.7 million shares [20][21][22]. Industry Performance - The liquor sector is currently experiencing a sales downturn, attributed to seasonal factors and pressure on terminal sales. Companies are adjusting inventory expectations to ensure healthy channel development [1][5]. - The report suggests a focus on companies with strong earnings certainty and low valuations, recommending Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu as key investment targets [1][5]. Key Company Feedback - The report highlights the performance of various companies, noting that the overall sales in the food and beverage sector have shown stability with slight increases, particularly in the e-commerce space [1][5]. - Key companies in the seasoning, frozen food, beer, and dairy segments are identified for potential investment, including Haitian Flavoring, Anjuke Food, and Yili Group [1][5]. Industry Data Trends - The report provides insights into the liquor industry's production and revenue, noting a production volume of 4.492 million tons in 2023, a decrease of 33.08%, while revenue reached 756.3 billion yuan, an increase of 9.70% [45]. - The seasoning industry has seen its market size grow from 259.5 billion yuan in 2014 to 513.3 billion yuan in 2022, with a CAGR of 9% [46].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, citing strong demand and improving supply-demand dynamics [3][93] Core Views - NEV production and sales in October reached 1.463 million and 1.43 million units, up 48% and 49.6% YoY respectively, driven by policy support and new model launches [2] - From January to October, NEV production and sales totaled 9.779 million and 9.75 million units, up 33% and 33.9% YoY, with a penetration rate of 39.6% [2][81] - The industry is expected to see sequential profit improvement in 2024, with valuation recovery, particularly in solid-state batteries, battery materials, and liquid cooling technologies [3][93] Industry Performance and Trends - The NEV index rose 12.22% YTD, while the lithium battery index increased 1.81%, and the charging pile index fell 2.98% [26] - Key companies like CATL and EVE Energy showed strong performance in energy storage, with material companies like Shangtai Technology and Zhongke Electric posting robust Q3 results [2][93] - Lithium prices rose, with lithium carbonate up 4.3% WoW to 78,700 yuan/ton, and cobalt prices increased 4.6% WoW to 182,000 yuan/ton [6][41] Key Companies and Investment Strategy - The report highlights companies like CATL, Shangtai Technology, and Hunan Yuneng in the main materials sector, and focuses on new directions such as solid-state batteries, liquid cooling, and composite current collectors [3][94] - Companies like BYD and Zeekr showed strong sales in October, with BYD selling 503,000 units, up 67% YoY, and Zeekr selling 25,000 units, up 92% YoY [66][67] Industry Dynamics - In October, China's power battery installations reached 59.2 GWh, up 51% YoY, with LFP batteries accounting for 79.4% of total installations [80][81] - Tesla recalled 2,400 Cybertrucks in the US due to a faulty component, marking its sixth recall this year [81] - Avita announced cumulative deliveries of 12,000 units for the Avita 07 and 10,000 orders for the Avita 12 within 12 days of launch [83]

证 券 研 究 报 告 金融工程周报 煤炭建材市场下行，有色石油石化降温， 农产品期货外盘表现疲软 价格高频数据跟踪W46 报告日期：2024年11月16日 数据截至日期：2024年11月14日 本周日期范围：2024年11月08日至2024年11月14日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------|-------|-------|-------| | | ◼ 分析师：吕思江 | | | | | | ◼ SAC 编号： S1050522030001 | | | | 投 资 要 点 【本周关注1——有色：碳酸锂】： 本周碳酸锂期货显著上行，涨幅+5.40%，价格处1年历史分位点低位(17.15%)。需求方面，尽管步入淡季，但目 前表现仍较强，11月因抢出口等因素排产保持在较高水平。供给方面，国内碳酸锂周度产量维持平稳；海外矿山 陆续公布三季度财报，部分企业下调生产指引，海外供应未来或有所下滑；另外，由于需求强劲及部分云母生产 企业停产，国内碳酸锂社会库存近两月持续去化，短期内对锂价形成支撑，后续将持续关注是否继 ...

证 2024 年 11 月 17 日 报 告 表现 1M 3M 12M 汽车(申万) 11.5 28.0 7.5 沪深 300 4.8 18.6 11.2 行 业 研 究 多家主机厂进军低空等科技产业，估值有望迎来 重估 —汽车行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：林子健 S1050523090001 linzj@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 市场表现 (%) 汽车 沪深300 -30 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 30 -20 -10 0 10 20 相关研究 1、《汽车行业周报：重申特斯拉产 业链投资机会》2024-11-10 2、《新势力 10 月销量点评：小 鹏、零跑等多家车企交付量创历史 新高，汽车消费有望维持高景气 度》2024-11-04 3、《汽车行业周报：10 月多家造车 新势力销量创历史新高，机器人丝 杠赛道持续扩容》2024-11-03 ▌多家主机厂进军低空等科技产业，估值有望迎来 重估 小鹏发布新一代人形机器人 Iron，成功迁徙其智驾能力应 用：11 月 6 日，在小鹏 AI 科技日上,小鹏 AI 机器人 Iron 正 式亮相。小鹏 Iron 身高 1.78m，体重 ...

证 2024 年 11 月 17 日 告 行 研 究 生猪盈利幅度及时间维持乐观判断，双 11 宠物 赛道成交额 5 倍扩容 —农林牧渔行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：娄倩 S1050524070002 louqian@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：卫正 S1050124080020 weizheng2@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 农林牧渔(申万) 7.4 9.3 -6.5 沪深 300 4.8 18.6 11.2 市场表现 (%) 农林牧渔 沪深300 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《农林牧渔行业周报：10 月集团 场生猪出栏节奏加快，宠物多条赛 道持续利好》2024-11-10 2、《农林牧渔行业周报：Q3 生猪养 殖业绩兑现，宠物盈利水平显著提 升，农林牧渔基金重仓市值比略有 下降》2024-11-03 3、《农林牧渔行业周报：需求拉动 短期猪价回涨，但不改长期向下趋 势，双十一宠物产品需求增长亮 眼》2024-10-20 业 ▌ 本周观点 供需博弈格局不同，推动商品猪、仔猪出栏价格走向两级分 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation rating for the media industry [5][26]. Core Insights - The integration of AI technology, particularly AI glasses, is expected to create new paradigms in content supply and drive growth in the media sector. Major tech companies are investing in AI hardware, which is anticipated to benefit both consumer electronics and media applications [4][21][22]. - The upcoming 2025 Spring Festival film season is expected to boost cinema attendance and revenue, with several films already scheduled for release [4][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview and Dynamics - The media industry has shown varied performance, with the internet marketing index experiencing significant gains while the O2O index has declined. Notable stock movements include a 30.51% increase for Dou Shen Education and a 20.29% decrease for Bilibili [20]. - The gaming market in China reached a scale of 29.083 billion yuan in October 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.4%. The mobile gaming sector showed a revenue increase of 17.07% year-on-year [25]. Key Recommendations and Logic - Specific stocks recommended include BlueFocus Communication Group (300058), Zhejiang Wenlian (600986), Mango Excellent Media (300413), and Wanda Film (002739), all expected to benefit from trends in digital marketing and cinema [5][11][12]. - The report highlights the potential of AI agents in various sectors, including digital marketing and content creation, with companies like BlueFocus and Zhejiang Wenlian positioned to leverage these advancements [23][24]. Film Market - The film "The Legend of the Condor Heroes: The Hero of the Great" is set to premiere on January 29, 2025, marking a significant addition to the upcoming film lineup [37]. - Recent box office statistics indicate a weekly revenue of 164 million yuan, with top films including "Burning City" and "Venom: Let There Be Carnage" [39]. Television Market - The report notes that popular TV shows include "Little Alley Family" and "People's Police," which have garnered high viewership ratings [47].