2024 年二季度市场主动权益基金配置调整幅度较大，港股和电子行业配置比例分别提升 2.47pct 和 2.21pct；食品饮料、 电力设备及新能源和医药配置比例分别降低 3.53pct、1.10pct 和 0.87pct。 主动权益基金 2024 年二季度重仓的板块为机械、TMT 和消费板块，配置比例分别为 21.56%、20.87%和 15.94%，2024 年二季度相比 2024 年一季度主要增持了港股 2.47 pct 和 TMT 2.25 pct，主要减持了消费 3.96 pct 和医药 0.87pct。 从主动权益基金的行业配置看，2024 年二季度配置比例最高的五个行业分别为电子、港股、医药、食品饮料和电力设 备及新能源，配置比例分别为 13.51%、11.62%、9.91%、8.38%和 8.11%；相比于上季度，主动权益基金主要加仓了 港股 2.47pct 和电子 2.21pct，主要减仓了食品饮料 3.53pct、减仓电力设备及新能源 1.10pct 和医药 0.87pct，其他行业 的配置比例变化不大。 重点关注 2024 年 2 季度，我国经济增长放缓，今年全年达成 5%增长目标的难度 ...

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 7 月 21 日 光伏装机高速增长,阳光电源签署储能大订单 光伏方面,2024 年上半年我国光伏装机规模达到 102GW,同比增长 31%, 全年装机规模增长无忧,新技术方面 HJT 中标价格最低达到 0.81 元/W,均 价 0.83 元/W,预计银包铜导入速度加快推动 HJT 降本,建议优先配置行业 格局较优、成本优势较为明显的行业细分环节。风电方面,Q2 业绩风险逐 步落地,预期 H2 国内海风项目招标及建设有望稳步推进,国外海风逐步放 量,带动出海需求,建议优先配置受益于海风、海外逻辑的塔筒桩基与海缆 环节,以及存在渗透率提升逻辑的国产化与新技术环节。新能源车方面,本 周锂电产业链公司业绩预告陆续发布,材料环节依然面临盈利压力。我们预 计下半年材料降价压力有望缓解,盈利有望得到修复。新技术方面固态电池 产业化加速,在相关领域有布局的材料和设备企业有望受益。建议优先布局 格局较优的电芯环节,海外客户放量以及一体化布局较优的部分中游材料环 节。电力设备领域,国内持续推动电力体制改革,《国家能源局关于做好新 能源消纳工作 保障新能源高质量发展的通知》发 ...

强于大市 基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 7 月 21 日 化工行业周报 20240721 国际油价下跌,聚合 MDI 价格上涨 7 月份建议关注:1、关注 MDI、涤纶长丝、制冷剂、化肥等产品价格变化及中报业绩兑现;2、 大基金三期、下游扩产等多因素催化,关注部分半导体、OLED 等电子材料公司;3、油价中高 位,关注大型能源央企及相关油服公司在新时代背景下的改革改善与经营业绩提升;4、地产及 节能降碳政策影响下,相关产业链产品的预期变化及后续景气度改善。 行业动态 ◼ 本周(7.15-7.21)均价跟踪的 101 个化工品种中,共有 22 个品种价格上涨,42 个品种价格 下跌,37 个品种价格稳定。周均价涨幅居前的品种分别是醋酐(华东)、硫磺(CFR 中国现 货价)、甲乙酮(华东)、醋酸(华东)、环氧氯丙烷(华东);而周均价跌幅居前的品种分 别是棉短绒(华东)、硝酸(华东地区)、R125(浙江高端)、NYMEX 天然气、液氯(长三 角)。 ◼ 本周(7.15-7.21)国际油价下跌,WTI 原油收于 80.13 美元/桶,收盘价周跌幅 2.53%;布伦 特原油收于 82.63 美 ...

图表 11. 中国新造船价格指数变化 . 图表 13. 中国网络安全市场规模及中期预测 图表 16. 环比上周风格因子环比不变…………………………………………………………………………………………12 图表 18. 一周主题紅黑榜,养殖链、半导体相关主题领跑,造纸、原材料、汽车 图表 19. 中银年度核心组合、月度金股连续组合本周走势情况 . 2024年7月21日 3 ——2024 年度策略 《结构新生，主导演进》：国内经济动能转换期，新兴主导产业趋势将逐渐确 立，2024 年配置"内升外落"， 关注软硬科技。 ——20240121 《红利策略仍有效》：经济数据显示政策有所显现，红利策略仍有效，市场接近阶 段性底部的胜率在相应提升。 ——20240407《财报季关注盈利因子配置方向》：强势非农数据或推后美联储降息时点，4 月市场 进入业绩窗口期及政策落地期，对盈利端的预期将有望迎来市场重新计价。 大势与风格 降息预期升温，科技性价比提升。本周市场在三中全会改革预期以及海外降息预期等因素的影响下 延续上周回升态势。6 月美通胀、零售数据引发基本面走弱担忧，海外降息交易再度升温。截至当 前，根据 FedWatch ...

Economic Overview - In Q2 2024, China's GDP growth slowed to 4.7%, down 0.6 percentage points from Q1, making it challenging to achieve the annual growth target of 5%[24] - The primary pressure on economic growth is from real estate investment, which continues to decline, impacting domestic consumption and investment sectors[24] Monetary and Fiscal Policy - Monetary policy has only an indirect effect on stimulating real economic spending, as financial institutions are not the main buyers in the economy[4] - Fiscal expansion is constrained by significant revenue declines; tax revenue fell by 5% and land use rights income dropped by 14% in the first five months of 2024[8] - A proposed "real estate relief fund" of 1-2 trillion yuan could help alleviate credit risks in the real estate sector and restore normal market circulation[10][32] Real Estate Sector Insights - The decline in real estate investment is linked to high credit risks among real estate companies, which has led to a "wait-and-see" attitude among potential homebuyers[9][34] - From 2021 onwards, the sales area of pre-sold homes has dropped by over 50%, while the sales of completed homes have increased, indicating a shift in buyer confidence[9][14] Financing and Investment Trends - The sensitivity of financing demand to interest rates has significantly decreased, leading to a disconnect between low interest rates and social financing growth[31] - In June 2024, the funding sources for real estate investment saw a notable decline, reflecting ongoing pressures in the sector despite government support measures[38] Market Outlook - The current economic downturn is primarily driven by internal factors, with a need for effective fiscal policies and support for the real estate sector to stabilize growth[11][30] - If no effective measures are taken in fiscal policy or real estate support, market confidence may weaken further, complicating the achievement of this year's economic growth targets[11]

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2024 年 7 月 19 日 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 产品组 证券分析师：王军 (8621)20328310 jun.wang_sh@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300511070001 公司领跑东南亚快递物流行业，在中国也处于行业前列，近年来不断进军海外市场。财务方面，近年来公司业务量持 续增加，规模效益显现，盈利能力逐渐改善。公司通过学习国内先进经验，进一步赋能整合东南亚市场，中东南美等 新市场增量红利未来可期。 支撑评级的要点 领跑东南亚快递物流行业，业务规模持续扩大。公司发家于东南亚，2020 -2023 年，公司实现营业收入为 15.35/48.52/72.67/88.49 亿美元，2023 年收入较 2020 年增长超 5 倍。在成本端方面，其变动与收入端一致，主要为公 司开拓新市场拓建物流网络，以及兼并并购的成本。同期，公司毛利率稳步提高，由 2020 年的-17.03%提升至 2023 年的 5.34%。我们认为，公司综合毛利率的改善反映了公司在成本方面的管控逐渐显效，随着业务规模不断扩大以及 成本方面不断优 ...

中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2024 年 7 月 18 日 中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第三次全体会议，于 2024 年 7 月 15 日至 18 日在北京举行。 全会听取和讨论了习近平受中央政治局委托所作的工作报告，审议通过了《中共中央关于进一步全 面深化改革、推进中国式现代化的决定》。习近平就《决定（讨论稿）》向全会作了说明。 全会强调，进一步全面深化改革，必须坚持马克思列宁主义、毛泽东思想、邓小平理论、"三个代表" 重要思想、科学发展观，全面贯彻习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想，深入学习贯彻习近平总书 记关于全面深化改革的一系列新思想、新观点、新论断，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，坚持稳中 求进工作总基调，坚持解放思想、实事求是、与时俱进、求真务实，进一步解放和发展社会生产力、 激发和增强社会活力，统筹国内国际两个大局，统筹推进"五位一体"总体布局，协调推进"四个全面" 战略布 ...

证券分析师：苏凌瑶 lingyao.su@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522080003 1 策略观察：电子受到行业周期与产业趋势双重驱动 2024 年 7 月 18 日 策略对话行业 2 图表 3. 一期国家大基金投资分布 图表 4. 二期国家大基金投资分布 ■制造 ■设计 ■封测 ■装备材料 ■ 制造 ■设计 ■封测 ■装备材料 ■应用 6% 2.4% 2.6% 10% 10% 10% 17% 75% 67% 资料来源：立鼎产业研究网，中银证券 资料来源：芯思想研究网，中级证券 图表 5. 集成电路出口表现强势 图表 6.2024 年以来存储价格有所上行 ━含的手均价:DRAN:DOR4 (BGb (1Gx8) , 2133Mbps(基于8G存储)) 中国:出口全额:集成电路:苦月值:同比 (关元) (%) 4.5 500 4.0 400 3.5 300 3.0 2.5 200 2.0 100 1.5 1.0 0 0.5 -100 0.0 2020-01 2010-01 2012-01 2014-01 2016-01 2018-01 2022-01 2024-C 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with an initial rating of "No Rating" prior to this report [1][3]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the Southeast Asian express logistics industry and is expanding into overseas markets, leveraging its experience from China. The financial performance has shown consistent growth in business volume and improving profitability. The integration of advanced domestic practices into Southeast Asia and other emerging markets is expected to yield significant future growth [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, J&T Express, was established in Indonesia and has rapidly expanded its global presence, focusing on express delivery services. It operates in 13 countries, including major markets in Southeast Asia and China. The express service remains the core business, while cross-border logistics is increasingly contributing to revenue [8][12][14]. Market Analysis - The domestic e-commerce market in China is experiencing significant growth, with live-streaming e-commerce gaining a larger market share. The Southeast Asian express market is projected to maintain a high growth rate, with the company holding a leading market share. Emerging markets are still in the early stages of e-commerce development but show rapid growth potential [19][26][29]. Financial Overview - The company has seen substantial revenue growth from $15.35 billion in 2020 to $88.49 billion in 2023, with a significant improvement in gross margin from -17.03% to 5.34% during the same period. The net profit margin has also shown improvement, indicating better cost management and operational efficiency [16][17][41]. Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to generate revenues of RMB 766.19 billion, RMB 910.85 billion, and RMB 1,065.31 billion for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of -28.25 billion, 10.47 billion, and 19.01 billion respectively. The valuation is based on a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, with estimates indicating a reasonable valuation compared to peers [36][42][41].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the seasoning industry, with well-known brands "Chubang" and "Meiweixian," and has significant room for market share growth [3][9] - Recent management changes and reforms are expected to enhance operational efficiency and drive future performance [3][22] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and expanding its national marketing network, particularly in the restaurant channel [3][5] Summary by Sections Company Background - The company, Zhongju Gaoxin, was established in 1993 and listed in 1995, focusing on seasoning products and real estate development [9] - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 5.14 billion RMB, with soy sauce products accounting for 62.2% of its revenue [3][9] Shareholding Structure - The ownership dispute has concluded, with Huojun Group regaining control as the largest shareholder [12] Management Team - A new management team with backgrounds in major consumer goods companies has been appointed, aiming to leverage their experience for business synergy [22][23] Incentive Mechanism - The company has announced a stock incentive plan for 2024, aimed at enhancing internal motivation and team building [24] Product Strategy - The company is shifting its focus towards high-margin products and optimizing its product mix to enhance profitability [5][9] Marketing and Sales Channels - The company is reforming its marketing structure and aims to increase its presence in the restaurant channel, which represents a significant market opportunity [3][5] Financial Forecast - The company expects revenue growth from 5.50 billion RMB in 2024 to 7.16 billion RMB in 2026, with a projected net profit of 710 million RMB in 2024 [4][5]