基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 业绩评论 2024 年 7 月 24 日 002648.SZ 买入 原评级:买入 市场价格:人民币 17.64 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (20%) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Feb-21Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Jul-21Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21Nov-21Dec-21Jan-22 xx股票 xx指数 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 17.8 (2.8) (8.9) 11.6 相对深圳成指 23.4 (0.6) (4.9) 29.6 | --- | |-----------| | 3,368.65 | | 3,366.39 | | 59,422.91 | | 347.74 | | | | 34.6 | | | 以 2014 年 7 月 22 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《卫星化学》20240408 《卫星化学》20230723 《卫星化学》20230504 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 基础化工:化学原料 证券分析师:余嫄嫄 (8621)20328550 yuany ...

Macroeconomic Overview - In June, the national general public budget expenditure reached 28,212.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.0%, with a decrease of 5.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Local public finance expenditure amounted to 24,374.0 billion yuan, down 4.4% year-on-year, with a decrease of 5.7 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The public finance budget revenue showed weak performance, with June public finance revenue at 19,001.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, narrowing the decline by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] Government Fund Expenditure - Government fund expenditure in June was 7,895.0 billion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 3.1 percentage points from the previous month [4] - Central government fund expenditure was 26.8 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, significantly improving by 14.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [4] - Local government fund budget expenditure was 7,627.0 billion yuan, down 11.7% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 2.8 percentage points [4] Electronic Industry Insights - The maturity of edge AI applications is expected to lead to a wave of upgrades in AI smartphones and AI PCs, driving hardware upgrades in SoC/CPU, storage, sensors, cooling, and batteries [6][7] - IDC forecasts that AI smartphone sales in China will grow from 0.10 million units in 2023 to 1.50 million units by 2027, while AI PC shipments are expected to increase from approximately 0.03 million units to about 0.43 million units in the same period [7] - The demand for advanced packaging is anticipated to rise due to the expansion of domestic HBM projects, with the global advanced packaging market projected to grow from 4.3 billion USD to 28 billion USD from 2023 to 2029 [24] Pharmaceutical Industry Outlook - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to experience a "low first, high later" trend in 2024, with performance anticipated to gradually accelerate in the second half of the year [9][10] - The implementation of centralized procurement has led many pharmaceutical products to enter a price stabilization window, with stable growth expected in the pharmaceutical industry due to ongoing demand [10][11] - The market's demand for innovative products remains strong, suggesting that opportunities in innovative drug and medical device development should be closely monitored [9][27]

Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Stronger than Market" rating for the electronics industry [1] Core Views - Edge AI applications are expected to drive a replacement cycle for AI smartphones and AI PCs, leading to hardware upgrades in SoC/CPU, memory, sensors, cooling, and batteries [2] - AI-powered AR glasses and AIoT products are emerging as innovative hotspots in consumer electronics [2] - The global HBM market is facing supply shortages, with domestic manufacturers entering the field, potentially boosting demand for advanced packaging [2] Edge AI and Hardware Upgrades - Edge AI applications are expected to drive a replacement cycle for AI smartphones and AI PCs, with IDC predicting China's AI smartphone sales to grow from 10 million units in 2023 to 150 million units by 2027, and AI PC shipments to increase from 3 million units in 2023 to 43 million units by 2027 [2] - AI smartphones require NPUs with at least 30Tops of computing power, while AI PCs need NPUs with at least 40Tops [2] - Edge AI is driving upgrades in microphones (higher signal-to-noise ratio), CIS (higher resolution), and PCB (higher frequency and speed) [2] AIoT and AR Glasses - AI-powered AR glasses, such as those from Meta and Google, are gaining traction, offering features like music playback, video recording, and live streaming [2] - AR glasses are seen as an ideal form factor for edge AI models due to their first-person perspective and real-time responsiveness [2] HBM and Advanced Packaging - The global advanced packaging market is expected to grow from $4.3 billion in 2023 to $28 billion by 2029, with HBM being a key driver [2] - Domestic manufacturers like Wuhan Xinxin and ChangXin Memory are investing in HBM projects, which could boost demand for advanced packaging [2] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies involved in AI edge chip localization, such as Haiguang Information, Loongson Technology, and Cambricon [3] - Pay attention to companies in AI edge storage upgrades, such as Montage Technology, GigaDevice, and Puya Semiconductor [3] - Consider companies in AI edge acoustic upgrades, such as Goertek, AAC Technologies, and MEMSensing [3] MEMSensing (688286 SH) - MEMSensing is a leading MEMS platform company in China, with products covering MEMS acoustic sensors, pressure sensors, and inertial sensors [51] - The company is benefiting from the edge AI trend, with its MEMS microphones expected to see increased ASP due to upgrades in AI smartphones [51] - MEMSensing is also expanding into the e-cigarette and humanoid robot markets, with its MEMS pressure sensors seeing rapid growth due to increased adoption of MEMS microphones in e-cigarettes [51]

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 7 月 23 日 油运市场整体较为疲软,上半年我国快递业务 量再创新高 航运方面,成品油运运价下跌,原油轮市场整体疲软。航空方面,暑运期间 民航市场或将延续旺季态势,暑运日均旅客运输量有望实现同比增长。快递 物流方面,上半年我国快递业务量再创新高,较去年同期增长 23.1%。 核心观点: ①成品油运运价下跌,原油轮市场整体疲软。对于 MR 市场,东北亚市 场下行,LR2 市场走低带动 MR 运价下跌,澳洲 AMPOL 炼厂月中计划 检修,进口需求未来有望增加,后期市场有望回暖。东南亚市场下行, 尽管印尼柴油需求增加,但运价继续下跌,随着部分船位空放去印度, 后期市场有望企稳。LR 市场方面,苏伊士以东 LR2 市场平静,船位富 余,运价走低。LR1 市场活跃,船位较为紧张,受低迷的 MR 市场影 响,运价维持平稳。原油轮市场本周整体疲软,VLCC 市场方面,中东 市场下行,货源供应不足,大部分货盘私下成交,运价继续下跌。苏伊 士市场方面,美湾市场较为活跃,运价上涨。中东、西非市场持续低 迷,运价走低。阿芙拉市场方面,美湾市场活跃,同时受台风影响,船 位较 ...

医药生物 | 证券研究报告 — 行业策略报告 2024 年 7 月 23 日 强于大市 变数之中求定数,寻找价格平稳窗口期 医药生物行业 2024 中期策略 整体而言,医药板块 2024 上半年相对承压明显,但我们对下半年依然保持相对 乐观。一方面,我们判断 24 年医药板块业绩仍会呈现"先低后高"的趋势,下半 年医药板块业绩有望逐步加速;另一方面,集采实施多年后,大部分医药产品 其实已经逐步进入价格平稳的窗口期,在医药行业需求仍然会保持稳定增长的 情况下,医药行业未来有望逐步进入平稳的发展阶段。除此之外,市场对创新 产品的需求仍然迫切,创新仍为未来发展的主旋律,我们建议关注创新药械发 展机会。 支撑评级的要点 医药板块上半年表现较差,但下半年板块依然值得期待。整体来看,医药 上半年表现相对低迷,截止到 2024 年 6 月 30 日,申万医药板块上半年下 跌 21.09%,与其他行业相比,排名第 26 位。对于整体板块的业绩端表现, 我们依然维持全年"先低后高"的趋势判断,这种趋势会在三、四季度体现 的更加明显。在这种逐季加速的情况下,我们认为医药板块有望迎来反转。 此外,"医药反腐"相关因素的影响逐步褪去 ...

房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 7 月 23 日 强大于市 房地产行业第 29 周周报(7 月 13 日-7 月 19 日) 本周新房二手房成交同环比均改善;三中全会强调防范 风险、完善新政、改革制度,地产高质量发展仍有空间 本周新房成交面积同环比降幅均收窄;二手房成交面积环比由负转正,同比增速提升;新 房库存面积环比由负转正,同比降幅扩大,去化周期同环比均上升。 核心观点 新房成交面积同环比降幅均收窄。40 个城市新房成交面积为194.9 万平方米,环比下降2.9%,同比下降17.4%, 同比降幅较上周收窄1.4 个百分点。一、二、三四线城市新房成交面积环比增速分别为1.2%、-0.4%、-12.3%,同 比增速分别为-14.0%、-15.0%、-27.5%,一线城市同比降幅较上周扩大0.2 个百分点,二、三四线城市同比降幅分 别较上周收窄3.3、0.3 个百分点。 二手房成交面积环比由负转正,同比增速提升。18 个城市成交面积为177.3 万平方米,环比上升0.7%,同比上升 12.4%,同比增速较上周提升了6.1 个百分点。一、二、三四线城市环比增速分别为2.4%、0.4%、- ...

燕京啤酒 食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 首次评级 2024 年 7 月 23 日 000729.SZ 买入 原评级:未有评级 市场价格:人民币 9.53 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (32%) (26%) (19%) (12%) (5%) 2% Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24Jun-24Jul-24 燕京啤酒 深圳成指 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 10.2 (3.8) 0.4 (19.4) 相对深圳成指 16.0 0.7 4.5 (0.5) | --- | |-----------| | 2,818.54 | | 2,509.56 | | 26,860.68 | | 235.36 | | | | 57.4 | | | 以 2024 年 7 月 12 日收市价为标准 持续推进降本增效,产品线有望多点开花 啤酒行业结构升级趋势不改,需求量或将持续小幅下降。燕京啤酒积极求变, 新任管理层上任后"二次创业",为公司注入成长动力。随着大单品 U8 的 持续放量,清爽、鲜啤升级计划的推出,公司产品线 ...

事件：7 月 22 日，中国人民银行公告称，为优化公开市场操作机制，从即日起，公开市场 7 天期逆回购操作调整为固 定利率、数量招标。同时，为进一步加强逆周期调节，加大金融支持实体经济力度，即日起，公开市场 7 天期逆回购 操作利率由此前的 1.80%调整为 1.70%。为增加可交易债券规模，缓解债市供求压力，自本月起，有出售中长期债券 需求的中期借贷便利（MLF）参与机构，可申请阶段性减免 MLF 质押品。 同日 9 点，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2024 年 7 月 22 日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1 年期 LPR 为 3.35%，5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.85%。为加强预期管理，促进 LPR 发布时间与金融市场运行时间更好衔接，自 2024 年 7 月 22 日起，将 LPR 发布时间由每月 20 日（遇节假日顺延）上午 9:15 调整为 9：00。 降息的三个关注点。本次降息时隔 2023 年 8 月已有 11 个月，较以往有三处不同，一是招标方式由"利率招标"调整 为"固定利率、数量招标"，与临时隔夜正、逆回购操作招标方式相同，直接明确了固定利率。在货币政策传导机制 改革 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2024 年 7 月 23 日 公共财政预算收入表现仍较弱势。公共财政支出有待进一步发力。中央政府 性基金预算支出发力，而地方支出力度下滑。 相关研究报告 《降息点评》20240722 《6 月外汇市场分析报告》20240722 《中银量化 2024 年中期策略与定量展望》 20240722 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 资料来源：wind，中银证券 资料来源：wind，中银证券 公共财政预算收入表现仍较弱势 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|---------|---------------------------------|----------------|------------------|-------|---------|-------- ...

建筑装饰 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2024 年 7 月 22 日 中性 建筑行业 6 月数据点评 地产数据继续下滑,中建订单同环比均实现增长 6 月建筑行业数据发布,地产数据同比继续下滑,中国建筑新签订单实现同 环比增长。 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | 支撑评级的要点 | | | 投资数据:6 月固定资产投资小幅增长,制造业和基建投资同比增幅较大, | | | 地产投资同比依然下降:6 月固定资产投资为 10.94 万亿元,同增 3.64%。 | | | 6 月制造业、基建、地产开发投资完成额分别为 3.74、3.28 和 1.19 万亿 | | | 元,同比分别变动 9.3%、10.2%和-7.4%。从 ...