证券研究报告 [|T a行ble业_跟Fir踪st ] [Table_Main] [有Tab色le_I金nve属st] 铅锌价格超预期上涨，后续何去何从？ 评级： 看好 日期： 2024.05.14 报告要点 [分Ta析bl师e_ A王ut小ho芃r] 登记编码：S0950523050002 近期铅锌价格为何超预期上涨？在“二次通胀”预期渐起，矿端持续偏紧背景 ： 021-61102510 下，工业金属价格均出现较大幅度反弹，LME锌价 2月以来底部反弹近 20%， ： wangxiaopeng@wkzq.com.cn 铅价亦涨超10%。我们认为本轮上涨主要系金融属性与供需层面共振，金融 分析师 刘艺帆 属性上，年初降息预期延后，海外重回通胀状态，以美元计价的金融品种整体 登记编码：S0950523050003 偏强，供需层面，矿端复产推迟、TC持续下行，海内外冶炼厂减产使得锭端 ： 18217026088 过剩程度有所缓解，此外，全球制造业PMI重回扩张区间预示制造业开始触 ： liuyifan@wkzq.com.cn 底回升带动需求回暖。 [行Ta业bl表e_现Pic Quote] 2024/5/14 铅 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the renewable energy industry is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth in the power grid and energy storage sectors, with a focus on new investment directions such as ultra-high voltage direct current and distribution networks [5][6][10] - The energy storage sector is experiencing a bifurcation in performance, with large-scale storage showing strong growth while household storage faces challenges [7][10] - The green energy sector is viewed as undervalued, with potential for significant growth driven by increasing installation capacity and favorable policy changes [11][14] Summary by Sections 1. 2023 & 2024 Q1 Summary and Investment Outlook - The power grid sector's overall profit growth reached 23.4% in 2023, an increase of 7.9 percentage points [5] - The return on equity (ROE) for the power grid sector improved to 10.4%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous year [18] - The energy storage sector saw a 290% increase in new installations in China, totaling 22.0 GW in 2023 [8] 2. Five Key Indicators of Industry Changes - Profit growth in the inverter and large-scale storage segment was 150.8% year-on-year, while household storage profits decreased by 34.3% [28] - The ROE for the inverter and large-scale storage segment rose to 27.3%, an increase of 11.9 percentage points [30] - Capital expenditures in the inverter and large-scale storage segment grew by 46.9% in 2023 [33] 3. Key Company Performance Overview - Companies involved in ultra-high voltage and distribution networks are expected to see significant performance improvements as these sectors enter a growth phase [5][6] - The report suggests that companies with established supply chains in overseas markets, particularly in Europe, are well-positioned to benefit from increased demand for energy equipment [5] - The green energy sector is projected to recover from a performance vacuum, with an expected return to high growth due to increased capital expenditures [11][14]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating for China Duty Free Group (601888.SH) with a first-time coverage [6]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the long-term positive outlook for the duty-free industry driven by national policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption and the recovery of high-quality consumer demand [2]. - It highlights the strong competitive position of China Duty Free as a leading player in the retail sector, benefiting from significant scale advantages and a robust market presence [3]. - The report also notes short-term profitability improvements due to reduced airport rental costs and enhanced inventory turnover rates [4]. Summary by Sections Long-term Perspective - The duty-free market is expected to grow significantly, with a target of attracting 300 billion yuan in duty-free shopping back to China, particularly in Hainan [2]. - The overall economic trend in China remains positive, with increasing demand for high-quality consumer goods [2]. Mid-term Perspective - China Duty Free has established itself as the largest travel retail operator globally, with a market share exceeding 85% in domestic duty-free sales since 2018 [3]. - The company operates approximately 200 duty-free stores across more than 100 cities, leveraging its strong brand and extensive distribution network [3]. Short-term Perspective - The company has signed rental agreements with major airports, significantly reducing base rental fees and commission rates, which is expected to enhance profitability as international travel recovers [4]. - The report argues that the opening of duty-free licenses will ultimately benefit leading companies like China Duty Free by accelerating the exit of smaller competitors [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 675 billion yuan in 2023 to 1,030 billion yuan by 2026, with corresponding net profits increasing from 67 billion yuan to 109 billion yuan during the same period [5]. - The report provides a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio forecast of 23x for 2024, 19x for 2025, and 17x for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4].

证券研究报告|行业点评2024/05/17 新能源行业 投资评级 看好 五大指标洞察行业变化（2 3 年&2 4 Q1 ） — — 电网/储能/电力 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 [Table_Main] 钨行业 点评：钨价春季躁动的原因是什 [ 有Tab 色le_I 金nve 属st] 评级： 看好 么？ 日期： 2024.05.17 事件描述 [分Ta析bl师e_ A王ut小ho芃r] 登记编码：S0950523050002 5 月 7 日，据章源钨业公布 2024 年 5 月上半月长单采购报价：55%黑钨精 ： 13401186193 矿：14.35万元/标吨；55%白钨精矿：14.25万元/标吨; 仲钨酸铵(国标零级)： ： wangxiaopeng@wkzq.com.cn 21.10万元/吨。 分析师 祁岩 事件点评 登记编码：S0950523090001 ： 13661240951 1、钨价为什么上涨？ ： qiyan1@wkzq.com.cn 1）长期积累的供应链紧张是本轮上涨核心要素：2024 年首批总量控制政策 联系人 何能锋 收紧、全球新增钨矿产能不及预期、国家环保和安全督察等生产限制性因素 ： 13116101317 作用下，叠加需求预期向好及贸易商惜售行为推动上涨。 ： henengfeng@wkzq.com.cn 2）成本上升及限制 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The growth rate of new energy vehicle sales is stabilizing, with automakers experiencing revenue growth without profit increase, leading to a decline in net profit [3][17] - The implementation of the vehicle replacement policy and the central enterprise assessment of new energy vehicles is expected to provide a slight boost to sales in Q2 2024 [5][10] - The automotive industry is facing intensified price competition, resulting in increased revenue but decreased profitability, with an overall decline in net profit of 14.3% year-on-year in Q1 2024 [17][21] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In Q1 2024, new energy passenger vehicle retail reached 1.77 million units, a year-on-year increase of 34.5%, with a penetration rate of 36.6% [8][9] - Companies like BYD and Great Wall Motors showed significant sales growth, while others like BAIC Blue Valley experienced a decline [8][10] Financial Performance - The overall revenue of the industry increased year-on-year but decreased quarter-on-quarter, with notable growth from companies like Seres (421.8%) and Great Wall Motors (47.6%) [13] - The net profit of the industry decreased by 14.3% year-on-year, with BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Seres being exceptions with positive growth [17][21] Cost Structure - The average R&D expense ratio in the industry increased from 3.9% in Q4 2023 to 4.1% in Q1 2024, driven by intensified competition in smart technology [31] - The average sales expense ratio decreased to 5.9%, indicating effective cost control among automakers [31] - Advertising expenses increased significantly for most companies, with BYD, Changan, and GAC seeing increases of 94%, 53%, and 49% respectively [42]

证券研究报告|行业点评 2024/5/16 新能源行业 投资评级 看好 光伏、风电行业2 0 2 4 年年报一季报总结：业绩承压， 否极泰来 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 [Table_Main] 强化“ 功能性”定位，上市券商监管新规助 [非Tab银le_I金nve融st] 评级： 看好 力一流投行建设 日期： 2024.05.16 —《关于加强上市证券公司监管的规定》点评 [分Ta析bl师e_ A徐ut丰ho羽r] 登记编码：S0950524020001 事件描述 ： 15026638387 ： xufy@wkzq.com.cn 2024年5月10日，证监会发布《关于加强上市证券公司监管的规定》。 [行Ta业bl表e_现Pic Quote] 2024/5/16 7% 1% 事件点评 -4% -9% 上市券商是打造一流投行及投资机构的核心力量，也是加快推进金融强国建设过程中 -15% 的关键环节。2009年，证监会首次发布《关于加强上市证券公司监管的规定》，并分 -20% 2023/5 2023/8 2023/11 2024/2 别于2010年、2020年进行了修订，但从实施效果看，我国上市券商在公司治理、投 非银金融 上证综指 沪深300 资者保护、信息披露、合规风控等方面与国际一流投行还有很大差距。2024年4月， 新“国九条”颁布，同日，证监 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 [Table_Main] 强化“ 功能性”定位，上市券商监管新规助 [非Tab银le_I金nve融st] 评级： 看好 力一流投行建设 日期： 2024.05.16 —《关于加强上市证券公司监管的规定》点评 [分Ta析bl师e_ A徐ut丰ho羽r] 登记编码：S0950524020001 事件描述 ： 15026638387 ： xufy@wkzq.com.cn 2024年5月10日，证监会发布《关于加强上市证券公司监管的规定》。 [行Ta业bl表e_现Pic Quote] 2024/5/16 7% 1% 事件点评 -4% -9% 上市券商是打造一流投行及投资机构的核心力量，也是加快推进金融强国建设过程中 -15% 的关键环节。2009年，证监会首次发布《关于加强上市证券公司监管的规定》，并分 -20% 2023/5 2023/8 2023/11 2024/2 别于2010年、2020年进行了修订，但从实施效果看，我国上市券商在公司治理、投 非银金融 上证综指 沪深300 资者保护、信息披露、合规风控等方面与国际一流投行还有很大差距。2024年4月， 新“国九条”颁布，同日，证监 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as **Positive** [1] Core Views - Lead and zinc prices have risen more than expected since February, driven by financial attributes and supply-demand dynamics [1] - Zinc prices have rebounded nearly 20% from the bottom since February, while lead prices have risen over 10% [1] - The global manufacturing PMI has returned to the expansion zone, indicating a recovery in demand [1] - Zinc supply is tight on the mining side, with overseas production falling short of expectations, while domestic production is gradually recovering [10][11] - Lead supply is stable, with overseas mining production increasing slightly and domestic mining supply remaining resilient [42][43] - Zinc demand is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2024, with domestic demand growing at 3.5% and overseas demand at 1% [1] - Lead demand is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2024, with domestic demand growing at 2.3% and overseas demand at 2% [1] Zinc Supply and Demand - Overseas zinc mining production fell short of expectations in 2023, with a 2.3% year-on-year decline [10] - Domestic zinc mining production increased by 370,000 tons in 2023, driven by post-pandemic recovery [11] - Overseas zinc smelting production is gradually recovering, with Glencore's production increasing by 10% in 2023 [15] - Domestic zinc smelting production surged by 10.7% in 2023, driven by high profits and sufficient ore supply [16] - Zinc demand in 2024 is expected to be driven by domestic recovery, with overseas recession risks remaining [24] Lead Supply and Demand - Overseas lead mining production increased by 3.9% in 2023, with major contributions from Asia and the Americas [42] - Domestic lead mining production remained stable in 2023, with a slight increase in some regions [43] - Overseas lead smelting production increased by 3.1% in 2023, driven by the recovery of major smelters [45] - Domestic lead smelting production increased by 12.8% in 2023, driven by new capacity and improved technology [48] - Lead demand in 2024 is expected to be supported by replacement demand for lead-acid batteries, with domestic demand growing at 2.3% [65] Price Outlook - Zinc prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, with prices ranging between 20,000-25,000 yuan/ton in 2024 [1] - Lead prices are expected to remain in a wide range of fluctuations due to oversupply [1] - The supply gap for zinc is expected to widen from 2026, opening up room for price increases [1]