Investment Rating - The report rates the tungsten industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The global tungsten industry is experiencing a complex situation characterized by resource control competition and technological upgrades, with supply chain camp formation [2][12] - China's tungsten industry is undergoing a transformation towards high-value-added products, driven by domestic upgrades and international market expansion [3][39] - The geopolitical landscape is influencing regional procurement trends, particularly in emerging markets like Russia and ASEAN countries [3][51] Summary by Sections 1. Background of the Game: Strategic Value of Tungsten Resources and Supply System - 80% of global tungsten resources come from China, while high-end application technologies are dominated by Europe and the US, leading to a clash between China's outward industrial upgrade and the US's protection of its domestic industries [12][13] - The US aims to reduce dependency on Chinese tungsten through tariffs and domestic mining initiatives, while China seeks to maintain its resource advantages and expand its international market share [2][12] 2. Policy Duel: China's and the US's Dual Strategies - China's tungsten industry policies focus on transformation and control, implementing measures such as export tariffs and quotas to manage production and sales [16][22] - The US is working to lower its reliance on Chinese tungsten by diversifying import sources and increasing domestic production through the Defense Production Act [25][30] 3. Export Trends: Acceleration of Transformation in the Tungsten Industry - China's tungsten exports are experiencing a decline in overall volume but are shifting towards high-value products, with significant growth in exports to Russia and ASEAN countries [39][51] - The export structure is changing, with a focus on high-end products like hard alloy tools, which have seen price increases and growing demand [45][43] 4. Industry Opportunities: Focus on Regional Markets in Russia, Europe, and ASEAN - The geopolitical situation is driving regional procurement, with Russia emerging as a significant market for Chinese tungsten exports, showing a compound annual growth rate of nearly 70% from 2018 to 2024 [3][51] - The EU's rearmament plans are expected to stimulate demand for tungsten products, particularly in Germany, creating opportunities for Chinese manufacturers [3][51]

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals sector as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The small metals market is experiencing a significant price increase due to limited strategic metal reserves, high extraction difficulty, and insufficient supply elasticity, coupled with rapid growth in downstream demand from sectors like new energy, semiconductors, and military industries. Geopolitical tensions and China's export controls on tungsten, antimony, and rare earths have exacerbated supply-demand conflicts, leading to a sustained upward price trend for small metals [12][15][17] - In May 2025, the overall non-ferrous metals sector saw a moderate increase, with precious metals (gold) and strategic small metals (rare earths, tungsten) leading the gains. The geopolitical situation has intensified, causing a decline in risk appetite in international financial markets, which has driven gold prices higher as a traditional safe-haven asset [12][15] Summary by Sections 1. Focus Areas: Supply-Demand Conflicts and Geopolitical Impact - The small metals market is currently hot, with prices rising due to limited reserves and high extraction difficulty. The rapid growth in demand from new energy and military sectors, along with geopolitical tensions, has intensified supply-demand conflicts [12][15] 2. Small Metals Price Increase Cycle and Strategic Resource Valuation - Small metals are experiencing a significant price increase, with tungsten concentrate prices reaching historical highs of 169,000 yuan/ton, and antimony concentrate prices increasing by 57.02%. The main drivers include limited reserves, high extraction costs, and increased demand from various industries [15][17] 3. Market Trends: Macroeconomic Sentiment Recovery and Non-Ferrous Sector Growth - The non-ferrous metals sector showed a recovery in May, with small metals leading the way. The report highlights the importance of monitoring the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and China's economic recovery [12][46] 4. Policy Changes: Global Policies on Key Mineral Resource Protection and Development - Multiple countries are implementing policies to protect and develop key mineral resources, including the U.S. signing a "mineral agreement" with Ukraine and South Africa launching a critical minerals strategy. China is also taking measures to combat smuggling of strategic minerals [13][27] 5. Key Industry and Company Developments - Harmony Gold's acquisition of Macarthur Copper for $1.03 billion and other significant mergers and acquisitions in the mining sector are noted. Companies are using diverse capital strategies to strengthen resource control and optimize capacity [14][15]

Group 1: Debt Pressure and Economic Growth - The current debt pressure in China is expected to gradually ease by 2027, with the debt service ratio projected to drop from 14% in 2023 to approximately 12.8%[1] - The ongoing "de-leveraging and stable growth" phase indicates significant debt service pressure due to high implicit debt and local fiscal contraction[1] - The nominal GDP growth is anticipated to contribute to a "passive dilution" effect, aiding in the reduction of debt service ratios[1] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Budget Constraints - The fiscal deficit rate is expected to rise to 5% over the next two years to achieve stable growth, with a projected policy gap of approximately 2.8 trillion yuan[3] - Current fiscal spending as a percentage of GDP has decreased to 20.8%, significantly lower than the 23% average from 2015 to 2019[3] - Local government debt limits and revenue shortfalls are leading to a reliance on special bonds as gap-filling tools, particularly in financially weaker regions[2] Group 3: Investment Efficiency and Debt Dynamics - The broad investment return rate is declining, with 5.4 trillion yuan of nominal GDP generated through 32.2 trillion yuan of social financing, indicating a historical high of approximately 5.8 yuan of credit needed for every 1 yuan of GDP[4] - The reliance on land sales for local government revenue is increasing, with some regions depending on land sales for over 40% of their fiscal income, exacerbating asset-debt-income mismatches[2] - The marginal utility of debt is decreasing, leading to a potential "debt contraction" scenario as economic dependence on debt deepens[4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-bank financial sector is "Positive" [6] Core Insights - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum emphasized the importance of expanding financial openness and enhancing the capital market's inclusivity for technology-driven enterprises, particularly in the context of "de-dollarization" and the internationalization of the RMB [3][4][14] - Key focus areas include promoting technology innovation through the STAR Market, enhancing the internationalization of the RMB, and fostering patient capital to improve the efficiency of innovation capital formation [5][16] Summary by Sections Event Description - The Lujiazui Forum took place from June 18 to 19, 2025, in Shanghai, focusing on "Financial Openness and Cooperation in the Global Economic Landscape" [2][13] Event Commentary - The forum highlighted the need for a multi-tiered capital market to support the integration of technology and industry innovation, with significant reforms proposed for the STAR Market [3][14] - The introduction of a "1+6" reform measure aims to include unprofitable companies in the STAR Market's growth layer, expanding the scope of the fifth listing standard to cover more advanced technology sectors [3][14] Promotion of Dual Opening - The forum discussed the establishment of a digital RMB international operation center and the optimization of the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system to enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets [4][15] - It was noted that the Shanghai International Financial Center's development will draw lessons from Hong Kong's experience, focusing on legal and infrastructure improvements [4][15] Cultivation of Patient Capital - The forum identified the need to cultivate patient capital to address the short-term nature of current financial supply, proposing measures to broaden the sources of patient capital and improve exit channels for investments [5][16] - Specific strategies include promoting social security funds and insurance capital to participate in private equity investments and developing more technology innovation indices [5][16]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Baowu Magnesium Industry [3][45]. Core Viewpoints - The improvement in the corrosion resistance of magnesium alloys is crucial for their application in the automotive sector, with a potential market growth of 5 times due to enhanced economic viability as magnesium prices decline [1][2]. - Baowu Magnesium has launched corrosion-resistant magnesium alloy components, indicating progress in applications requiring high corrosion resistance, such as electric motor housings [1][26]. - The company has a comprehensive layout in the magnesium alloy manufacturing sector, with significant reserves and production capacities planned for the future [1][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Magnesium Alloy Corrosion Resistance - Enhancing corrosion resistance is key to unlocking the market for automotive magnesium alloy components [10]. - Magnesium alloys have shown better weight reduction compared to aluminum alloys, making them economically viable as magnesium prices have decreased [12][13]. - The current application of magnesium alloys in vehicles is limited, with potential usage significantly higher than current levels [18][19]. 2. Baowu Magnesium's Capabilities - Baowu Magnesium has successfully developed a magnesium alloy electric drive assembly that meets industry corrosion resistance requirements [26]. - The company has invested in R&D and established various innovation platforms to enhance product development [28]. 3. Industry Layout and Production Capacity - Baowu Magnesium has a well-structured layout in magnesium resources, production, and customer development, ensuring a competitive edge in the market [29]. - The company holds substantial magnesium ore reserves, with a total of 175,359.38 million tons available for extraction [32]. - Planned production capacities include 50,000 tons of raw magnesium and 60,000 tons of magnesium alloys by the end of 2024 [34][41]. 4. Profitability and Valuation Forecast - The forecasted EPS for Baowu Magnesium for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.241, 0.374, and 0.606 respectively, with dynamic PE ratios indicating a favorable investment outlook [2][45]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in the automotive magnesium alloy market due to improvements in corrosion resistance [45].

[Table_Main] 降本不可持续 ——澳矿 2025Q1 财报梳理分析 事件点评 量：2025Q1 澳洲锂矿产量环比下降 13%。而受 Mt Marion 上调产量影 响，预计 2025 年澳矿全年产量同比增长 3.92%，至 362 万吨。2025Q1 澳洲锂精矿产量环比下降 13%至 83.7 万吨 SC6 锂精矿， 主要系 Greenbushes 原矿品位下滑、P1000 项目调试、Ngungaju 和 Bald Hill 矿 山关停所致；销量受发运时间影响，环比下降 5%至 85.2 万吨。本季度 Marion 上调 25 财年生产指引 20%，Holland 下调 25 财年生产指引 13%， 其余矿山生产指引不变。结合各矿山产能及规划情况，我们预计 2025 全 年澳洲锂精矿产量同比小幅增加 3.92%至 362 万吨。 成本：四大维度分析，澳矿进一步降本空间极为有限。25Q1 澳洲高成本 矿山降本效果明显，其中 Marion 与 Wodgina 矿山降本幅度超过 25%。 Q1 澳矿主要通过提高剥采比（开采富矿）、提升回收率、裁员及减少资 本开支等四大方式降低矿山生产成本。而在我们看来，澳 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 [Table_Main] 经济仍需政策呵护——5月宏观月度观 察 报告摘要 海外宏观：关税冲击下发达国家展现相对韧性。5 月份是美国"对等关税"冲 击下的第二个月份。全球经济虽然放缓，但下滑幅度不算大。发达国家和新兴 经济体出现明显分化。在关税冲击下，发达国家经济景气度展现出较强韧性， 我们认为这是由于发达国家的内需较强，抵抗外部冲击的能力更强。新兴经济 体制造业 PMI 指数则快速下滑，我们认为新兴市场对于全球贸易的依赖度更 高，所以受到美国关税政策的冲击更大。关税对海外通胀影响尚不明显。5 月 美国通胀保持平稳，欧元区通胀持续下行。发达国家的通胀数据走势表明关税 战对于通胀的影响低于最初市场的预期。但其中一个重要原因是美国对外的 "额外关税"有 90 天的豁免期。这期间有较多的贸易抢跑及提前备货，平抑 了通胀的短期波动。我们认为未来海外通胀仍存在较大的上行风险。 国内宏观：经济仍待政策呵护。消费高速增长，但持续性存疑。5 月社会消费 品零售总额同比增长 6.4%，是本月经济最大的亮点。我们认为 5 月消费高速 增长的主要动力有两点：一是电商"618"促销活动提前至 5 月 13 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The battery segment is a critical bottleneck for the development of the low-altitude economy, which requires batteries with high energy density, high power output, and high safety standards [3][9] - The demand for batteries in the low-altitude economy is characterized by the "three highs": high energy density, high power output, and high safety, which presents significant challenges [9] - The rapid development of the low-altitude economy necessitates innovations in battery materials and cost reductions to meet economic and safety requirements [9] Summary by Sections Battery Requirements - High energy density: By 2035, the goal is to produce aviation lithium batteries with an energy density of 400Wh/kg [3][13] - High power output: The battery must support high power outputs of 3-8C during vertical takeoff and landing [13][20] - High safety: The disaster-level failure rate for manned aircraft must be less than 10^(-9) per flight hour [13][20] Material Innovations - The transition to silicon-carbon anodes is expected to significantly enhance energy density, with cost reductions anticipated as technical barriers are overcome [3][14][20] - Solid-state battery solutions are well-suited for the low-altitude economy due to their better thermal stability compared to high-energy-density cathode materials [20][23] - The development of high-nickel cathodes, conductive materials, and improved cooling structures will also be promoted [20][23] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in silicon-carbon anode materials and solid-state battery-related industries [4][20]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 中印大合同签订，钾肥价格重心上移 事件描述 据中国无机盐协会消息，2025 年 6 月 12 日，中国钾肥进口谈判小组（中化、 中农、中海化学）与食安供应链有限公司（迪拜）就 2025 年钾肥年度进口合 同价格达成一致，合同价格为 346 美元/吨 CFR。此前在 2025 年 6 月 5 日， 印度钾肥进口大合同价格确定为 349 美元/吨，该价格由俄罗斯钾肥公司 （BPC）与印度化肥进口商 IPL 达成，今年计划发货 65 万吨。 事件点评 中印 25 年钾肥大合同价格涨幅超过 25%，中国仍是全球钾肥"价格洼地"。 据中国无机盐协会消息，2025 年 6 月 12 日，中国钾肥进口谈判小组（中化、 中农、中海化学）与食安供应链有限公司（迪拜）就 2025 年钾肥年度进口合 同价格达成一致，合同价格为 346 美元/吨 CFR，较去年大合同增长 73 美元 /吨，同比上涨 26.7%。此前在 2025 年 6 月 5 日，印度钾肥大合同价格为 349 美元/吨，较去年同比上涨 25%，该价格由俄罗斯钾肥公司（BPC）与印度化 肥进口商 IPL 达成，今年计划发货 65 万吨。据 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-oil and gas geological exploration industry is "Positive" [5]. Core Insights - The geological exploration industry in China has entered a new growth cycle, with non-oil and gas geological exploration investment increasing for four consecutive years. In 2024, the total investment reached 22.957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.4% [2][12]. - The funding for mineral exploration is primarily directed towards gold, copper, and uranium, with significant increases in rare earths, gold, and silver exploration investments in 2024 [2][15]. - The industry is experiencing a structural transformation, with a slight reduction in personnel and an increase in social capital investment, which accounted for 46.05% of total funding in 2024 [3][30]. Summary by Sections Investment Trends - In 2024, the total investment in non-oil geological exploration reached 22.957 billion yuan, with mineral exploration accounting for 13.917 billion yuan, representing 60.6% of the total [12][15]. - The investment in rare earth exploration saw a remarkable increase of 128.9% year-on-year, while investments in phosphorus and molybdenum also rose significantly [15][19]. Industry Performance - The total revenue of the geological exploration industry in China for 2024 was 404.637 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.46% [26]. - The workforce in the geological exploration sector has slightly decreased, with a total of 402,400 employees by the end of 2024, a reduction of 3.1% compared to the previous year [27]. Strategic Developments - Major mining companies are focusing on brownfield exploration to enhance resource acquisition efficiency and extend the lifespan of mines. Companies like Zijin Mining and China Minmetals have established subsidiaries dedicated to exploration [4][34]. - The report highlights the importance of technological innovation and strategic partnerships in enhancing exploration capabilities, with companies leveraging digital technologies and AI for improved efficiency [35][38]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the capital market for mineral exploration in China is still developing, with government funding constituting a significant portion of total investment, unlike in more mature markets like Canada and Australia [30][36]. - The exploration rights for non-oil minerals in China have increased, with a total of 11,681 valid exploration rights by the end of 2024, marking a 3.8% increase from the previous year [21].