证券研究报告 | 行业周报 [Table_Main] 有色金属脉动跟踪：仍需关注降息预期 +"特朗普交易" 报告要点 主要观点更新： 贵金属：降息预期+"特朗普交易"仍需关注。 铜：国内宏观预期好转，静待拐点到来。 铝：氧化铝延续涨势，电解铝亏损至 700 元/吨以上，铝价中枢长期抬升。 铅锌：加工费仍在亏损，锌锭产量持续下行，锌价震荡修复。 锡：非洲锡矿产量增加，锡价继续承压。 镍：镍矿溢价回落，镍价表现弱势。 钨：钨市场价格横盘僵持，采购商按需议价。 锑：内外价差有所修复，光伏需求或触底。 钛：钛材市场需求稳定，海绵钛利润仍然承压。 工业金属周度涨跌幅：LME 铜（-0.4%），LME 铝（0.3%），LME 铅（-2.6%）， LME 锌（+0.6%），LME 镍（-0.9%），LME 锡（-0.2%） 战略小金属周度涨跌幅：碳酸锂（-3.9%），钨精矿（-4.1%），钴（-3%）， 锑（+0%），氧化镨钕（-1.1%），氧化钇（-5.6%），氧化铽（-0.5%），氧 化镝（1.9%） 日期： 2024.12.19 登记编码：S0950523050002 钼：钼价处于僵持状态，年末钢招需求稳定。 金属价 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a **positive rating** to the central enterprise sector, suggesting a favorable outlook for investment opportunities in this area [12] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of **market value management** for central enterprises, highlighting its role in enhancing the quality of listed companies and stabilizing the capital market [10][20] - Central enterprises are seen as a **pillar of the national economy**, with significant influence on economic growth and capital market stability [20] - The report suggests that central enterprises will continue to maintain **high dividend levels** under the "China-specific valuation" and "central enterprise market value management" frameworks [11][53] Summary by Sections Market Value Management Framework - Market value management is divided into three stages: **value creation**, **value operation**, and **value realization** [1][17] - **Value creation** focuses on improving fundamentals through innovation, mergers, and mixed-ownership reforms [1][17] - **Value operation** involves tools like stock buybacks, increased dividends, and strategic investments to align market value with intrinsic value [1][2][17] - **Value realization** aims to enhance investor relations and improve information disclosure quality [1][17] Central Enterprises' Role in Market Value Management - Central enterprises are expected to play a leading role in market value management, with a focus on **high-quality development** and **technological innovation** [23] - The report highlights the importance of **dividends** as a key tool for market value management, with central enterprises being the main contributors to A-share dividends [49][52] - The **"low valuation + high dividend"** characteristic of central enterprises makes them attractive for investment, especially in sectors like banking [11][53] Policy and Regulatory Support - The **State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC)** has issued guidelines to strengthen market value management for central enterprises, including measures to address **long-term undervaluation** [2][24] - The **China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC)** has also introduced regulations to encourage cash dividends and improve market value management practices [49][53] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on central enterprise sectors with **low valuation** and **high dividend yields**, particularly in the banking sector [11][53] - The **valuation repair** potential for undervalued state-owned enterprises is highlighted, driven by policy support and market value management initiatives [11][24]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the machinery equipment industry is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is expected to accelerate its industrialization and scaling, driven by advancements such as Tesla's Optimus robot, which features a new dexterous hand with 22 degrees of freedom [12] - Huawei's entry into the humanoid robot sector, with partnerships signed with 16 robot companies, is anticipated to enhance the application of humanoid robots in various domestic scenarios [13] - The manufacturing PMI for November 2024 is reported at 50.3, indicating a recovery in economic activity and presenting three key opportunities: large-scale equipment upgrades, international expansion of Chinese equipment manufacturers, and the industrial application of humanoid robots [14] Summary by Sections Sector Insights - Tesla's Optimus robot showcases significant advancements in flexibility and dexterity, moving closer to mass production [12] - Huawei's innovation center aims to integrate various technologies to foster the development of humanoid robots, enhancing their practical applications [13] Market Review - The general equipment index increased by 9.12% in November, while specialized equipment rose by 7.70% [18] - The engineering machinery sector saw a decline of 3.09% in November, but has shown a year-to-date increase of 26.53% [18] Data Tracking - The cumulative year-on-year profit growth for the general equipment manufacturing industry is reported at 0.4% [27] - The industrial profit growth rate for January to October 2024 is at -3.9%, with the top-performing sectors being paper products and transportation equipment manufacturing [29]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 [Table_Main] 从中央经济工作会议看券商板块的投 资机会 事件描述 2024 年 12 月 11-12 日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。作为每年最高级别 的经济工作会议，本次会议对于定调 2025 年宏观政策具备前瞻性指引意义。 从内容看，2024 年中央经济工作会议延续了 12 月 9 日政治局会议的基调和 政策取向，整体表述积极有力，对改善预期、提振市场信心起到了重要作用。 事件点评 "稳住股市"，增强资本市场内在稳定性。本次会议将"稳住楼市股市"置于 总论，体现出中央对于增强资本市场内在稳定性、促进资本市场健康平稳发 展的高度重视，也是"以投资者为本"理念的具体体现。平稳运行是资本市场 健康和成熟发展的重要标志，只有平稳运行的资本市场才能提升投资者的获 得感，从而促进资本市场健康壮大。当前资本市场改革重心已转向投资端，政 策层面从严监管、规范交易行为、引入中长期资金入市、稳定市场预期等方面 发力，着力促进资本市场健康稳定发展。提升增强资本市场稳定性有利于交 投情绪的修复，加上资本市场投融资端的深化改革全面利好券商基本面，我 们认为，券商板块估值有望提升。 "科技金融 ...

中央经济工作会议解读 事件点评 在对 2025 年全年经济工作的总基调上与 12.9 日召开的中央政治局会议保持一致，强 调 2025 年全年经济工作总基调将继续"坚持稳中求进"，坚持"稳中求进、以进促 稳，守正创新、先立后破，系统集成、协同配合"，相较去年新增三个方向。整体看明 年产业政策，特别是在科技领域上将进一步扩张，同时，超长期逆周期调控政策的出 台将与财政、货币相配合，以系统集成为核心，在长期改革上突出效率与重点。 对当前宏观经济运行状况，会议指出"当前外部环境变化带来的不利影响加深，我国 经济运行仍面临不少困难和挑战"。在特朗普贸易 2.0 带来的关税脱钩压力下，经济 增长存在下行风险。12 月 9 日政治局会议提出"加强超常规逆周期调节"，释放近年 来最强的稳增长信号，显示宏观政策方向已经发生明显转折，全面聚焦经济增长。未 来政策将延续 9 月 26 日会议以来的刺激基调，通过新一轮增量政策为经济运行提供 支撑、筑底，确保经济稳中有进。 在经济结构上，会议强调了"五个必须统筹"，措辞较为严厉，突出了对发展关系调整 的迫切性。两个"必须统筹"值得关注，第一个"必须统筹"强调了对市场经济有效性 的认 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The report focuses on China's advantageous metal varieties, particularly germanium, antimony, gallium, tungsten, molybdenum, rare earths, indium, and magnesium, amidst rising geopolitical tensions and export controls [1][18][21] - China holds a dominant position in the supply of tungsten, indium, gallium, rare earths, magnesium, and germanium, with significant reliance from overseas markets on these metals [2][35] - The report highlights the tightening of export controls on germanium and gallium, with new regulations introduced in November 2024 [26] Summary by Sections Section 1: Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Environment - The global trade environment is deteriorating due to geopolitical tensions, with the U.S. imposing tariffs and China restricting exports of certain metals [18][19] Section 2: China's Advantageous Metal Varieties - China is a net exporter of metals such as gallium, indium, magnesium, tungsten, and rare earths, with significant global market influence [21][22] - The report identifies germanium, antimony, gallium, tungsten, molybdenum, rare earths, indium, and magnesium as key focus areas for analysis [22] Section 3: China's Policies on Advantageous Metals - Export controls are in place for germanium, antimony, gallium, and certain tungsten and magnesium products, with recent updates indicating stricter regulations [26][27] Section 4: Overseas Dependence on Chinese Metals - The report outlines the high dependence of overseas markets, particularly the U.S., on Chinese supplies of rare earths, magnesium, and germanium [35][36] Section 5: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The report provides updates on various metal prices, indicating fluctuations and trends in the market, including precious metals and industrial metals [4][80][93]

电力行业 24Q3 总结》(2024/11/12) | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 [Table_Main] 绿色金融趋势跟踪（202411）：应对气 候变化的中国经验亮相 COP29 报告要点 COP29 达成至少 3000 亿美元/年的新气候融资集体量化目标（NCQG）。 2009 年联合国气候变化大会（COP15）发达国家承诺到 2020 年每年为 发展中国家提供 1000 亿美元的资金支持其应对气候变化行动，而这 "1000 亿美元/年"的承诺在 2016 年生效的《巴黎协定》中成为支持的 下限，并且在 2020 年以后继续生效。本次联合国气候变化大会（COP29） 上，发达国家承诺到 2035 年每年向发展中国家提供至少 3000 亿美元， 用于支持发展中国家气候行动。 应对气候变化的中国经验亮相 COP29。中国在 COP29 期间发布系列应 对气候变化成果，如《应对气候变化南南合作中国行动》等，并举行新能 源日、碳市场日、数字化日、气候资金与技术日、适应日等 10 个中国边 会主题日，展示应对气候变化的中国经验。截至 2023 年底，中国可再生 能源发电总装机达到 15.16 亿千瓦，占全国发电总装机的 51.9%，全国已 建成投运新型储能项目累计装 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The low Earth orbit satellite launch volume is expected to see a significant increase in the next five years, with estimates suggesting a total of approximately 58,500 satellites launched from 2025 to 2030, compared to 2,781 in 2023, indicating explosive growth in the low Earth orbit satellite industry [1][12][18] - The demand for germanium in the solar panel sector is projected to create a substantial supply gap, with conservative estimates indicating a demand of 256 tons and optimistic estimates reaching 440 tons by 2030, while China's native germanium production in 2023 was only 200 tons [1][18] Summary by Sections 1. Satellite-Related Germanium Industry Potential - The future global low Earth orbit satellite launch plans are extensive, with major contributions expected from SpaceX, GW, and G60, leading to an estimated 30,300 satellites launched from 2025 to 2030 [1][12] - If satellite constellations with over 1,000 satellites are completed by the end of 2030, the total launch volume could reach approximately 58,500 satellites, marking a significant increase from 2,781 in 2023 [1][12][18] 2. Overall Market Review - The Shenyuan Metal New Materials Index reported a 0.86% increase over the past two weeks, with a year-on-year increase of 5.37% [22] - The Wind Lithium Mining Index and Wind Lithium Battery Positive Index also showed increases of 0.79% and 0.95% respectively, while the China Rare Earth Industry Index experienced a slight decline of 0.47% [22] 3. Key Company Weekly Performance Review - The top ten companies with the highest growth over the past two weeks include Zhonghe Technology (29.10%), Jianghua Micro (27.39%), and Bayi Space (20.86%) [40][41] - Conversely, the bottom ten companies with the largest declines include Yingluohua (-12.58%) and Huahai Chengke (-11.65%) [40][42] 4. Recent Industry Hotspots - SpaceX is negotiating to sell internal stock, potentially valuing the company at $350 billion, reflecting significant growth in its market position [48] - A breakthrough in ultra-pure graphite technology has been achieved, enhancing supply capabilities for high-purity graphite used in advanced industries [49]