事件点评 [Table_Main] 《铜产业高质量发展实施方案（2025- 2027）》有哪些新看点？ 事件描述 近日，工业和信息化部、国家发展改革委、教育部、自然资源部、生态环境部、 商务部、应急管理部、国务院国资委、海关总署、中国证监会、国家矿山安监 局等 11 部门联合发布《铜产业高质量发展实施方案（2025—2027 年）》。 《实施方案》主要目标包括原材料保障、技术创新、产业升级等方面。 上游：原材料保障给予量化指引，关注国内重点矿区。《实施方案》提出，到 2027 年，力争国内铜矿资源量增长 5%—10%。具体举措包括"推动国内资 源增储上产，推进西藏、新疆、云南、黑龙江等重点地区铜矿资源基地建设。" 我国铜矿资源矿床规模小，小型矿山占比高达 88%；根据 S&P，大型矿山（资 源量>50 万吨）主要集中于西藏、云南、新疆等地。因此，建议关注上述重点 地区的投资机会。 中游：铜冶炼有序发展，优化产业布局。 1）政策对新增冶炼产能有收紧趋势：继《2024—2025 年节能降碳行动方案》 提及从严控制铜冶炼新增产能之后，本次方案再次强调了"新建矿铜冶炼项 目需配套相应铜精矿"及"大气污染防治重点区域不 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" indicating an expected overall sector return higher than the benchmark index by more than 10% [4]. Core Insights - The 2025 Spring Festival consumption market is expected to be robust, driven by government policies and increased consumer spending, with retail and catering sales projected to exceed 1.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12% [9][10]. - Gold consumption has surged, with a year-on-year increase of 13% during the Spring Festival, attributed to traditional holiday demand and rising risk aversion due to international uncertainties [10][11]. - The film market has set a historical record during the Spring Festival, achieving 9.51 billion yuan in box office revenue, a year-on-year increase of 18.12% [11]. Consumption Insights - The "National Subsidy" policy has stimulated consumption, particularly in the gold and film sectors, contributing to a strong start to the year [9]. - The average spending per customer in Hainan's duty-free shopping has increased to 8,707 yuan, reflecting a recovery in consumer spending power and willingness [20][23]. Travel Insights - During the Spring Festival, over 2.3 billion people traveled across regions, with domestic travel reaching 501 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [15][16]. - Long-distance travel via civil aviation and railways has significantly increased, indicating a recovery in travel demand as the economy improves [15][16]. Duty-Free Shopping Insights - Hainan's duty-free shopping during the Spring Festival amounted to 2.094 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.87% year-on-year, but the decline is less severe compared to previous holidays, suggesting a gradual recovery [20][23]. - The upcoming closure of Hainan's free trade port is expected to attract more tourists and boost the duty-free shopping market [23].

Investment Rating - The report rates the electrical equipment industry as "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The lithium battery materials industry is expected to maintain high growth due to recent price increases in iron-lithium materials and strong downstream demand driven by policies such as battery replacement [11][20] - In January, China's sales of new energy vehicles met expectations, with significant growth in Europe as the region prepares to introduce electric vehicle incentive plans [14][70] - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic energy storage bidding, reaching 7.7 GW/60.7 GWh in January, a year-on-year growth of 204%/1088% [20] - The report anticipates that the overall investment in the power grid will exceed 800 billion yuan in 2025, marking a historical high [20] Summary by Sections New Energy Industry Trends - The report discusses the trends in energy metals, battery materials, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic/wind power, energy storage/grid, and carbon markets [8][10] Energy Metals - In January, lithium prices showed a slight rebound, while cobalt prices are expected to decline due to low demand [13] - The report notes that lithium salt plants are gradually resuming operations, which may lead to increased market demand [13][49] Battery and Materials - In December, China's battery sales reached 126.6 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 7.0% and a year-on-year increase of 40.4% [11][55] - The report mentions that recent price increases for iron-lithium materials have been implemented, affecting various suppliers [55] New Energy Vehicles - The report highlights that January saw a significant year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle sales in China, while European markets also performed well [14][86] - The report notes that various automakers are setting ambitious sales targets for the new year, with some aiming for a doubling of sales [13] Photovoltaic/Wind Power - The report indicates that major photovoltaic companies continued to face losses in Q4 2024, while the wind power sector is expected to see significant growth in 2025 [15] Energy Storage/Grid - The report emphasizes the record-high bidding for energy storage in January and anticipates continued high growth in installations [20] Carbon Market - The report assesses the impact of the U.S. re-exiting the Paris Agreement on ESG investments, suggesting limited long-term effects [21]

Investment Rating - The report rates the humanoid robotics industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - Humanoid robot component suppliers are expected to benefit significantly from industry development, with a collaborative model of "independent design and outsourced production" likely to emerge [11][30] - The focus should be on joint modules, axial motors, reducers, and sensors as key investment areas [3][31] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robot Component Suppliers - The main manufacturers hold the "definition rights" for humanoid robot joints, influencing design aspects such as degrees of freedom, joint schemes, and layout [14][30] - The industry is expected to follow a model similar to the automotive sector, where component manufacturers engage deeply in product development [27][30] Analysis of Rotational Joint Solutions - Rotational joints are highlighted as high-value and highly certain investment opportunities, being a significant cost component in humanoid robots [31] - The report identifies three main types of rotational joints: rigid actuators, elastic actuators, and quasi-direct drive actuators, with rigid joints currently being the most prevalent [2][32] Key Technical Insights - High torque is a core requirement for humanoid robot motors, with the current mainstream choice being frameless torque motors [52] - Axial motors are anticipated to see explosive growth due to their higher torque density compared to radial motors [2][52] Investment Recommendations - The humanoid robotics sector is projected to drive substantial growth in the overall industrial automation market, benefiting industry players broadly [3] - Emphasis should be placed on customer relationships and collaboration within the supply chain [3][30]

[Table_Main] 寻找人形机器人的确定性：旋转关节投 资机遇拆解 报告要点 人形机器人零部件供应商有望深度受益于行业发展。在人形机器人的产业链 中，主机厂具备了关节的"定义权"，具体表现为掌握了 3 点：1）人形机器 人自由度设计；2）人形机器人关节方案设计；3）关节布局位置设计。但基于 规模效应和专业化分工，我们认为主机厂进行完全垂直整合的概率不大，"自 主设计、外包生产"将是一种更可能的合作模式。将会有一批人形机器人的零 部件供应商深度受益于行业发展，与主机厂共同成长。 旋转关节具备高价值量和高确定性，是建议优先关注的投资方向。关节模组 是人形机器人成本的重要组成，具备高价值量特点。而目前主机厂的方案均 使用旋转关节，从技术路线角度，旋转关节具备高度确定性。 旋转关节方案包括三类：刚性驱动器、弹性驱动器、准直驱驱动器。其中弹性 关节的引入会导致控制算法复杂，并增加硬件成本，因此产业中使用的较少。 刚性关节方案可以使用大减速比减速器，因此可以有更大的扭矩、更好的精 度，但增加了力传感器导致成本较高，并且耐冲击性差。准直驱方案可以用电 流环做力控，但只能用小减速比减速器，输出扭矩较小。早期准直驱方案主 ...

不在车 特朗普取消电车政策，马斯克"醉翁之意" 汽车行业 投资评级 看好 五矿证券研究所 新能源行业 分析师：张娜威 联系电话：18551983137 登记编码： S0950524070001 邮箱： zhangnawei@wkzq.com.cn 联系人：顾思捷 联系电话：18862755264 邮箱：gusj@wkzq.com.cn 证券研究报告|行业点评 2025/02/11 报告摘要 特朗普在就职演讲上表示将取消电动车政策，30天内将制定并实施具体的行动计划。目前美国现行的电动车政策包括IRA法案、电 动车渗透率目标要求、充电桩补贴等，其中最重要的是IRA法案对电动车7500美元税收抵免政策和对产业链的税收抵免。 IRA法案落地前美国电动车已经享受最高7500美元的税收抵免，因此IRA的核心在于扶持本土供应链，但至今收效甚微，主要体现 在两个方面：（1）产业链宣布的投资大幅增加，但新能源车价格下降不明显，2022-2024年新能源车降价幅度约2%~6%，售价是 燃油车的1.1~1.4倍；（2）IRA补贴的车型少，仅20余款车符合补贴要求，对终端渗透率拉动不明显。 电动车政策取消后，将阻碍美国新能源车发展 ...

[Table_Main] 险企配置黄金渠道打开，投资端资 产配置结构迎来优化 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | [Table_Invest] 非银金融 | | | --- | --- | | 评级： | 看好 | | 日期： | 2025.02.10 | [Table_Author] 分析师 徐丰羽 登记编码：S0950524020001 [Table_DocReport] 相关研究 事件描述 2025 年 2 月 7 日，国家金融监督管理总局办公厅发布《关于开展保险资金投 资黄金业务试点的通知》。自通知发布之日起，试点保险公司可以中长期资产 配置为目的，开展投资黄金业务试点。 事件点评 《通知》首次将保险资金运用范围拓宽至黄金，试点主体为 10 家大型保险公 司。根据原保监会 2018 年发布的《保险资金运用管理办法》，保险资金运用 限于下列形式：（1）银行存款；（2）买卖债券、股票、证券投资基金份额等 有价证券；（3）不动产；（4）股权；（5）国务院规定的其他资金运用形式。 本次《通知》首次将保险资金运用范围拓宽至黄金，有利于实现资产多元化配 置，增厚组合收益。《通知》规定投资黄金账面余额合计不超过本公司上 ...

报告要点 12 月社零同比+3.7%，政策加码推动市场复苏。（1）12 月社零总额为 45172 亿元，同比+3.7%，其中商品零售额为 39623 亿元，同比增速+3.9%。全年 社零总额达到 48.79 万亿元，同比+3.5%。尽管受到季节性因素影响，消费仍 维持增长态势，尤其在年末节庆和春节即将到来时，消费需求得到提前释放。 （2）线上和线下零售均呈现稳步增长趋势。具体来看，12 月线上零售额为 1.28 万亿元，同比+2.7%；12 月线下零售额为 3.24 万亿元，同比+4.1% ，显 示出"两新"政策叠加消费券支持下国内消费需求正在逐步回升，市场复苏 迹象明显。（3）消费品以旧换新政策持续显效，通讯器材类/家用电器类分别 同比+14.0%/39.3%，冰雪运动季支持体育娱乐用品类同比+16.7%。（4）各 部门存量政策落实，增量政策出台，推动房地产市场止跌回稳，对地产后周 期消费改善带来支撑，带动家具类/建筑装潢类消费同比+8.8%/0.8%。 出行市场整体回暖，免税购物平稳回升。（1）12 月旅客周转量较 2019 年恢 复度为 95%，较上月有所回升，同比+7.1%，需求出行总体呈现稳步回升态 ...

高端制造产业跟踪（1月）： DeepSeek爆火预示着投资方向的何种变化？ 五矿证券研究所 高端制造行业 分析师：祁岩 登记编码：S0950523090001 邮箱： qiyan1@wkzq.com.cn 电话：010-56307033 联系人：周越 邮箱： zhouyue@wkzq.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025/02/07 | 机械设备行业 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | 联系人：张雪 邮箱： zhangxue1@wkzq.com.cn Contents 目录 板块观点 01 02 数据跟踪 03 04 行情回顾 新闻&公告 板块观点 1. 板块观点 DeepSeek系列为什么爆火？ 图表1：DeepSeek-R1性能比肩OpenAI o1 图表2：DeepSeek-R1的价格远低于OpenAI o1 珍惜有限 创造无限 资料来源：DeepSeek，五矿证券研究所 4 资料来源：DeepSeek，五矿证券研究所 开源VS闭源 大模型领域一直存在开源和闭源的争议。OpenAI的GPT系列是闭源模型的代表，而开源模型阵营则有meta的Llama模型。在国内， ...

[Table_Main] 固态电池深度：从技术本征看固态电池 产业发展趋势 引言 固态电近年来既得到市场广泛关注，也饱受争议。半固态电池到底是不是固 态电池？全固态电池何时到来？固态电池技术将为产业链带来哪些变化？本 篇报告旨在从技术本征角度回答以上问题，从而分析固态电池产业发展现状 及趋势，以供市场参考。 报告要点 固态电池是锂电池理论上高能量密度+高安全性能的最佳体系。液态锂电池体 系向高能量密度迭代的热安全矛盾凸显，固态电池在本征安全性和锂金属负 极兼容性上潜力大，是锂电池理论上高能量密度+高安全性能的最佳体系。且 固态电解质的离子电导率已实现 10-2S/cm 的突破，固态电池初步具备产业 化理论基础。 全固态电池存在界面问题+成本问题卡点。全固态取消电解液，"固-固"界面 硬接触将影响电池倍率和循环性能，并带来加压制造、干法混料等工艺难点。 成本方面，目前固态电解质价格高昂，其中聚合物、氧化物体系远期降本相对 清晰，硫化物体系由于前驱体硫化锂工艺尚未成熟，降本节奏将更缓慢。我们 测算全固态电芯远期成本有望达到 0.69 元/Wh。 半固态本质仍属于液态锂离子电池体系，在液态电池安全性仍有提升预期时， ...