目前国内新能源汽车大规模使用的铝合金电池包壳体方案材料成本约 2300 元左右，使用外企带铝硅镀层热冲压高强钢电池壳体方案材料成本约 1500 元 左右。使用国产高强钢真空热冲压方案的电池包壳体方案原材料成本仅为 1260 元左右，相比目前大规模使用的铝合金电池壳体，其原材料成本有望降 低大约 1052 元，降幅约 46%。 专利优势 目前铝硅镀层热冲压高强钢的专利技术大多掌握在外资钢铁企业手中，国内 车企如使用国产带镀层材料，可能会在出海销售时面临专利限制的问题。因 此使用真空热冲压的国产无镀层高强钢可以很大程度上规避此类风险。 真空热冲压的新生产技术可以推进国产化热成型钢在电池包壳体领域的应 用。这种低成本的材料方案有望进一步推进新能源车的成本优化。 [Table_Main] 降本46%——新工艺助推低成本国产 材料在电池包壳体的应用 报告要点 我们在《马氏体高强钢：汽车轻量化的成本优势何在？》报告中提到汽车用钢 制电池壳体的应用有望为新能源汽车降低成本。目前这种工艺已经出现相应 的制造方案。 苏州普热斯勒科技股份有限公司日前在其官网展示了其钢制电池壳体产品。 该电池包壳体采用了高强钢热冲压工艺制造，意味 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 [Table_Main] 有色金属脉动跟踪：复盘全球央行购 金，趋势仍将持续 报告要点 汇率承压，中国央行时隔半年再度增加黄金储备。2024 年 11 月末中国官方 黄金储备为 7296 万盎司，较 10 月末增加 16 万盎司（约合 4.54 吨），是央 行时隔半年来首次增持黄金。10 月，美元兑人民币汇率再次走高，同期 10 年期国债收益率继续走低，首次突破 2.0%关口，中美利差再次扩大，卖美债 /美元、买黄金可以降低离岸美元需求，缓解部分人民币贬值的压力。 适度宽松的货币政策，将助推央行黄金储备需求。2025 年，中国人民银行将 实施适度宽松的货币政策，以支持经济的稳定增长。央行将综合运用多种货 币政策工具，择机降准降息，保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模和货币供应 量的增长与经济增长和价格总水平预期目标相匹配。适度宽松的货币政策对 于通胀具有积极意义，提高黄金作为避险资产的吸引力，推动黄金需求上升。 新兴市场央行多元化外汇储备的必要性在提升。当前国际局势复杂多变，地 缘政治风险、经济政策不确定性等因素增加，黄金作为避险资产，在这种环 境下具有较高的投资价值。央行购金可以增强储 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 [Table_Main] 有色金属脉动跟踪：降息预期降温，美 元走强压制金属价格 报告要点 主要观点更新： 金属价格涨跌： 贵金属周度涨跌幅：COMEX 黄金（-0.5%），COMEX 银（-2.0%），LME 铂（-0.5%），LME 钯（-0.2%） 工业金属周度涨跌幅：LME 铜（0.4%），LME 铝（0.6%），LME 铅（-0.8%）， LME 锌（2.3%），LME 镍（-1.8%），LME 锡（-0.4%） 战略小金属周度涨跌幅：碳酸锂（-0.1%），钨精矿（0.4%），钴（-1%）， 锑（0%），氧化镨钕（1.4%），氧化钇（0.0%），氧化铽（1.6%），氧化 镝（7.8%） | [Table_Invest] | | --- | | 有色金属 | | 评级： 看好 | | 日期： 2025.01.08 | | 分析师 王小芃 [Table_Author] | | 登记编码：S0950523050002 | | ：021-61102510 | | ：w angxiaopeng@wkzq.com.cn | | 分析师 于柏寒 | | 登记编码：S0950523120 ...

高端制造产业跟踪（12月）： OpenAI重启机器人，产业化再加速 五矿证券研究所 高端制造行业 分析师：祁岩 登记编码：S0950523090001 邮箱： qiyan1@wkzq.com.cn 联系人：周越 邮箱： zhouyue@wkzq.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025/01/03 | 机械设备行业 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | 联系人：张雪 02 (03) 数据跟踪 04 行情回顾 新闻&公告 邮箱： zhangxue1@wkzq.com.cn 板块观点 Contents 目录 1. 板块观点 板块观点 01 11月挖机销量同比+17.9%，叉车销量同比+5.1%。海外需求还是保持了较好的韧性，挖机出口同比+15.2%，叉车出口同比+16.7%。从宏观数据来看，11 月美国的CPI和PPI保持反弹，制造业PMI反弹至48.4，美国10年期国债收益率也上涨至4.62%。我们认为2025年海外需求仍然能保持稳健增长。叠加国内需求 存在政策托底，行业格局优化，工程机械板块仍有望实现超额收益。 全球矿山机械需求边际减弱，企业业绩分化波动。从海外矿山机械厂商 ...

证券研究报告|行业周报 2025/01/02 电气设备行业 投资评级 看好 电池厂进入招标期，铁锂材料或有较强涨价动力 五矿证券研究所 新能源行业 分析师：张斯恺 登记编码：S0950523110002 邮箱：zhangsikai@wkzq.com.cn 分析师：张鹏 登记编码：S0950523070001 邮箱：zhangpeng1@wkzq.com.cn 分析师：蔡紫豪 登记编码：S0950523070002 邮箱：caizihao@wkzq.com.cn 分析师：张娜威 登记编码： S0950524070001 邮箱： zhangnawei@wkzq.com.cn 联系人：顾思捷 邮箱：gusj@wkzq.com.cn 联系人：钟林志 邮箱：zhonglinzhi@wkzq.com.cn 联系人：吴依凡 邮箱：wuyf3@wkzq.com.cn Contents 目录 新能源产业趋势点评 01 附录 产业动态&数据跟踪 02 03 光伏/风电 储能/电网 能源金属 电池及材料 新能源车 电力（新能源/传统能源） 行业指数涨跌幅 细分板块行情回顾 新能源产业趋势点评 4 珍惜有限 创造无限 新能源产业趋势 ...

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Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry - The conference call discusses the mining industry, specifically focusing on the company involved in the Las Bambas mine in Peru and its operations. Key Points and Arguments 1. Removal of Obstacles - **Production Obstacles Removed**: The Las Bambas mine faced significant production and transportation disruptions due to community issues, with nearly 400 days of shutdown over the past five years. Since March 2023, normal production has resumed due to support from the new Peruvian government and improved community relations through long-term agreements [1] - **Financial Obstacles Removed**: The company faced a financial burden from the $2 billion Chucapaca project. However, by bringing in strategic investors in July, financial constraints have been fully alleviated, with expectations of reduced debt levels and leverage by year-end [2] - **Tax Obstacles Removed**: Following the acquisition of Las Bambas for nearly $6 billion, the Peruvian tax authority demanded approximately $2.5 billion in fines. After an appeal, it was determined that $1.7 billion of this was not owed, with a positive outlook on the remaining $900 million, effectively resolving tax issues [3] 2. High Growth Potential - **Production Growth**: The company is projected to be one of the fastest-growing in terms of production within its sector, with copper output expected to reach 490,000 to 540,000 tons, representing a 40% to 56% increase from 2023. The Chucapaca mine is expected to expand to a maximum of 610,000 tons, with significant contributions from the Las Bambas second pit starting in Q2 2024 [4] - **Cost Reduction**: Significant cost reductions are anticipated at Las Bambas, with the first half of 2024 expected to see costs above industry averages, dropping below average in the second half, potentially increasing net profits by approximately $60 million. Costs are also expected to decrease at the Kiva mine and during the ramp-up at Chucapaca [5] - **Financial Expense Savings**: The company plans to reduce financial costs through debt restructuring, with expected savings of several million. With the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, a reduction of 100 basis points could save $34 million in financial expenses, with further reductions anticipated next year. Overall, financial expenses are expected to decrease by about $100 million, a 30% reduction [6] 3. Undervaluation - **Dynamic Valuation Low**: Although the static PE valuation appears high, the dynamic PE for next year is expected to be around 7-8 times, significantly lower than peers like Zijin at 12-13 times and Luoyang at 10 times. By 2026, as costs decrease, the PE is projected to drop to 5-6 times [7] - **Relative Valuation Low**: The company’s valuation is lower compared to peers in terms of resource valuation and EV/EBITDA metrics. The static valuation for 2024 is impacted by acquisition costs and interest expenses, but with capacity releases and cost reductions, the company’s performance and valuation are expected to improve significantly [8]

公路出行稍有好转，短途旅游仍相较低迷。11 月份公路和水路出行较 2019 年同期恢复度仍 处于较低水平。公路出行恢复度达 63%，为本年度最高值，但我们分析本月以及未来两到三 休闲服务 [Table_Page] |周报 个月的增长的主要原因是年底民众逐渐返乡，出于铁路和民航票务价格及票务数量有限等原 因，公路返乡会成为不少民众的选择。所以公路出行以及短途旅游热度是否真的能做到整体 性且持续性恢复，还需要进一步观察。 资料来源：国家统计局，五矿证券研究所 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------|-------|---------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|------------| | | | | | | | | | | 600 | | 2000 | | | | | 120% | | | | 1800 | | | | | | | 500 | | 1600 | | | | | 100% | | 400 | | 1400 | | | | | 80% | | | | 1200 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [11]. Core Insights - The mining industry is currently facing unprecedented opportunities and challenges amid the global economic landscape and energy transition. Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are seen as the fastest and most effective path for mining companies to expand internationally, with two main transaction modes: equity acquisition and project acquisition. Each mode has its advantages and disadvantages, and the choice between them should be based on specific circumstances to maximize benefits and efficiency [15][26]. Summary by Sections Section 1: M&A Modes - Mining M&A can be categorized into equity acquisition and project acquisition, each with distinct characteristics. Equity acquisition allows for quick access to all assets and operations of the target company but comes with significant risks, including assuming all debts and potential liabilities. Project acquisition, while more precise and lower risk, incurs higher transaction costs [15][45][46]. Section 2: Market Updates (December 16-20, 2024) - Precious Metals: Expectations of interest rate cuts have cooled, leading to overall pressure on gold prices. The COMEX gold price decreased by 0.7% [4][55]. - Aluminum: The price of alumina continues to rise, with electrolytic aluminum losses exceeding 700 RMB/ton. The long-term price center for aluminum is expected to increase [5][57]. - Tin: Supply continues to recover, but demand remains below expectations, putting continued pressure on tin prices [6][60]. - Tungsten: The tungsten market is stagnant, with buyers negotiating based on demand [7][91]. - Molybdenum: Demand from the steel sector has slightly strengthened, keeping molybdenum prices stable [8][95]. - Titanium: The titanium market shows stable demand, but sponge titanium profits remain under pressure [9][127]. Section 3: Macro Trends and Industry Dynamics - The report highlights a shift towards more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies in China, which are expected to improve macroeconomic expectations. The manufacturing PMI in November was reported at 50.3, indicating a return to growth [72][105]. Section 4: Metal Prices and Sector Performance - The report provides a detailed overview of metal prices, noting fluctuations in various metals such as copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and tin, with specific price changes and trends over the reporting period [116][119].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - Global solid mineral exploration investment has entered a downward cycle, with a 1.46% year-on-year decline to $12.909 billion in 2023 due to macroeconomic headwinds, geopolitical tensions, and falling mineral prices [20][21] - Major mining companies dominate the exploration funding market, with a significant shift from grassroots exploration to later-stage detailed exploration and mining exploration, leading to a decline in new mineral discoveries [17][34] - Canada and Australia remain key markets for primary mining capital, but tightening foreign investment regulations have increased challenges for Chinese enterprises seeking to acquire overseas primary mining companies [2][125] Summary by Sections Global Exploration Investment Trends - In 2023, exploration investment in Latin America reached $3.378 billion, accounting for 26.17% of global investment, with Canada and Australia following at $2.505 billion (19.41%) and $2.201 billion (17.05%) respectively [9][47] - The proportion of grassroots exploration has decreased from 47.96% in 2000 to 23.38% in 2023, with a corresponding decline in new major copper and gold discoveries [26][50] Major Mining Companies and Financing - The top ten global exploration companies in 2023 were all large mining firms, with Rio Tinto leading at $357.6 million, followed by Barrick Gold and Vale [34][61] - Large mining companies have a stronger risk tolerance and are less affected by fluctuations in downstream mineral prices, which has led to their increased dominance in exploration funding [34][65] Challenges and Opportunities for Chinese Mining Companies - Chinese mining companies face increased scrutiny and regulatory challenges in Canada and Australia, impacting their ability to acquire primary mining companies [125][126] - The report suggests focusing investments along the Belt and Road Initiative and in African countries, enhancing cooperation to increase resource value [3][106] Domestic Exploration and Investment Strategies - The China Geological Survey Fund plays a crucial role in mineral exploration, with a success rate of 21.6% in new mineral discoveries as of the end of 2023 [13][80] - The report emphasizes the need for better integration of social capital in exploration projects and improving the efficiency of fund utilization [85][110]