Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The industry is experiencing a decline in profitability, with the main material chain under significant pressure, while the auxiliary material chain remains relatively stable [7][16] - The performance of the main material chain has seen a year-on-year revenue decrease of 31% and 26% for 24Q4 and 25Q1, respectively, with net profit losses continuing to expand [7] - The auxiliary material chain has shown a slight revenue decline of 4% and a growth of 4% for the same periods, with net profit increasing by 10% in 25Q1 [7] - The industry is expected to enter a bottoming phase, with potential price rebounds anticipated in 25H2 due to supply contractions [23][25] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The main material chain is facing ongoing losses due to continuous price declines, while the auxiliary material chain is performing more steadily, with some price increases providing operational flexibility [7][16] - The overall industry is experiencing a slowdown in demand growth, with limited bright spots on the demand side [23] Financial Metrics - The main material chain's gross margin and net margin have shown a declining trend, while the auxiliary material chain's margins remain relatively stable [7] - The industry's capital expenditures are decreasing, returning to levels seen in early 2022, indicating a slowdown in corporate expansion [16][20] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The industry is expected to see a significant supply contraction in 25H2, particularly in the battery and component segments, which are facing high debt ratios [20][25] - The demand outlook for 25H2 is expected to be subdued, with potential low points in production schedules during June and July [23][25]

财报中的复苏信号 机械设备 投资评级 看好 五矿证券研究所 高端制造行业 分析师：祁岩 登记编码：S0950523090001 邮箱：qiyan1@w kzq.com.cn 联系方式：010-56307033 联系人：周越 邮箱：zhouyue@wkzq.com.cn 联系方式：13167229763 证券研究报告|行业点评 2025/05/23 Contents 目录 观点汇总 01 02 附录 03 季报总结 1. 观点总结 梳理2024年Q4和2025年Q1业绩，我们认为企业在微观层面有显著的复苏迹象。具体来看，我们认为自动化、锂电设备的基本面在2024年相对承压，但2025年将 切换至复苏状态，基本面将逐步走强。我们预判复苏强度不会太高，但确是重要的拐点。 自动化：我们认为自动化板块从2024年下半年开始逐步走出谷底。从宏观数据，我们观察到M1触底，代表企业资金状况企稳。一季度PMI较强，展现出复苏趋势。 虽然4月PMI数据受到关税冲击有所反复，但随着对等关税大幅降低，对后续数据谨慎乐观。微观层面，我们观察到发那科和安川中国区订单连续多个季度回暖。自 动化样本企业的应收账款及应收票据增速将至与收入增速 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the mechanical equipment industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The report identifies significant recovery signals in the industry, particularly in automation and lithium battery equipment, with expectations for gradual improvement in fundamentals starting in 2025 [10][11][12] - The automation sector is expected to emerge from a downturn starting in the second half of 2024, supported by stable macroeconomic indicators and improving cash flow in the industry [10][19] - The engineering machinery sector is projected to see domestic demand exceed expectations, with a shift from price competition to value and efficiency competition among companies [11][42] - The mining machinery sector is experiencing strong demand for non-ferrous metals and stable coal demand, with performance aligning with fixed asset investment trends [12][55] - The lithium battery equipment sector shows signs of a potential turning point, with improved financial metrics and a notable increase in contract liabilities [12][65] Summary by Sections Automation - The automation sector's revenue for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 was 38.481 billion and 29.121 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth of 1% and 9% [19] - Companies like Fanuc and Yaskawa have seen a recovery in orders in China, indicating a positive trend [19] - The sector's cash flow is improving, with accounts receivable growth aligning closely with revenue growth [10][32] Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector achieved revenues of 698 billion and 769 billion for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, with year-on-year growth of 9% and 12% [38] - The sales of excavators in Q1 2025 reached 61,400 units, a 23% increase year-on-year [38] - The sector is expected to maintain a profit growth rate exceeding revenue growth due to a favorable competitive landscape [42] Mining Machinery - The mining machinery sector reported revenues of 225 billion and 211 billion for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, with year-on-year declines of 1% and 3% [55] - The sector's profitability is bolstered by significant investments in non-ferrous metal mining [55] - Companies like North Mining Technology have shown remarkable revenue growth, significantly outpacing the industry average [55] Lithium Battery Equipment - The lithium battery equipment sector's revenue for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 was 78 billion and 77 billion respectively, with year-on-year declines of 20% and 13% [65] - The sector is showing signs of recovery, with improved financial metrics and a notable increase in contract liabilities [65] - Companies such as Xian Dai Intelligent and Hangke Technology have seen a significant increase in overseas revenue share [65]

价稳量增 ——储能行业 2024 年报及 2025 年 Q1 财报梳理分析 报告要点 储能 24 年&25Q1 财报重要变化 1）在产业链价格企稳后，价稳量增，储能行业利润逐季改善，24Q4/25Q 1 板 块利润同增 59%/66%，龙头企业阳光电源表现尤为突出，24Q4/25Q 1 阳光 电源利润同增 55%/83%。 2）大储及逆变器盈利能力有所回落但仍保持高位，24 年大储及逆变器板块 ROE 为 24.0%，同比下降 3.2pct。 产业中观数据 中国储能装机增长持续超预期。作为全球最大市场，中国 24 年新型储能新增 装机功率/容量为 43.7GW/109.8GWh，同增 103%/136%，增长超预期。25 年 1-3 月中国储能招标功率/容量为 19.8GW/102.7GWh，同增 194%/399%， 从招标这一前瞻指标看，25 年中国储能市场增长有望持续。 美国储能装机保持较快增长。美国 24 年新型储能新增装机 10.07GW，同增 63%，增速虽低于 EIA 预测值，但从绝对值看仍保持较快增速。 欧洲储能装机保持平稳。24 年德国新增装机 4.54GWh，同增 2.7%。欧洲目 前装机 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The lithium mining industry is experiencing significant changes, with companies refusing to cut production despite declining lithium prices. The report highlights that the overall production capacity remains stable, with companies opting for maintenance and upgrades instead of large-scale shutdowns [8][27] - The report indicates that the lithium price has dropped from 97,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2024 to 72,000 yuan/ton by the end of the year, leading to a substantial decrease in profit margins for companies [8][27] - The report suggests that the current downturn in lithium prices may require some companies to exit the market for supply-side adjustments to occur [8] Summary by Sections Production - In 2024, the lithium salt production of the sample companies reached 447,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 47% [11] - The total lithium salt production in China was 1,029,000 tons, with a 39% year-on-year growth [11] Inventory - Social inventory of lithium salt increased significantly, reaching 143,300 tons by August 2024, before slightly decreasing to 128,400 tons due to seasonal demand [16] - The inventory of listed companies decreased from 48,100 tons to 30,200 tons, a 37% year-on-year decline [16] Cost - The production cost of lithium salt decreased by 41%, from 112,200 yuan/ton in 2023 to 66,700 yuan/ton in 2024 [18] - The cost reduction is attributed to lower raw material prices and improved production efficiency [18] Revenue - The total revenue from lithium salt for the 12 listed companies was 36.2 billion yuan in 2024, a 40.2% decrease year-on-year [30] - The average selling price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 65% to 90,500 yuan/ton in 2024 [30] Net Profit - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the 12 listed companies dropped by 81% to 5.785 billion yuan in 2024 [37] - The decline was primarily due to reduced revenue and increased asset impairment losses [37] Profitability - The gross margin for the companies was 25.38%, down 14.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 4.52%, down 11.6 percentage points [46] Expenses - The total expenses for the 12 companies reached 12.2 billion yuan in 2024, a 14.6% increase year-on-year [55] - Financial expenses increased significantly, particularly for companies like Tianqi Lithium and Huayou Cobalt [55] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure for the 12 listed companies totaled 18.6 billion yuan in 2024, a 43% year-on-year decline [64] - The report indicates that companies are entering a period of reduced capital spending due to cash flow pressures [64] Debt Servicing Ability - The average cash ratio for the companies was 0.64, a 22 percentage point decrease year-on-year, while the debt-to-asset ratio increased to 33% [71] - The report notes that while short-term debt servicing ability is under pressure, it remains within a reasonable range [71]

Group 1: Macro Environment - In April, the impact of the "reciprocal tariffs" in the US was limited due to a 90-day exemption period and ongoing negotiations with most countries[1] - The US economy showed resilience, with a potential to avoid recession if tariff increases can be reduced to 10%[1] - China's exports in April grew by 8.1% year-on-year, supported by strong re-export trade, despite a decline in direct exports to the US[15] Group 2: Trade and Investment - Direct trade suffered significantly, with South Korea's exports to the US dropping by 30.4% year-on-year in April[7] - Re-export trade surged, with Vietnam's exports increasing by 21% year-on-year in April, indicating a shift in trade dynamics[7] - Fixed asset investment in China grew by 4% year-on-year in the first four months, but manufacturing investment declined by 0.9 percentage points compared to March[19] Group 3: Policy and Market Response - The US and UK reached a trade agreement, maintaining a 10% basic tariff rate, while negotiations with China resulted in temporary agreements[26] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates in the second half of the year due to rising inflation and economic slowdown risks[27] - A comprehensive financial policy package was introduced in China to stabilize market expectations, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio[29] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The US consumer confidence index fell to 50.8 in May, the lowest since July 2022, indicating strong inflation expectations[12] - China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year in April, while PPI fell by 2.7%, reflecting significant deflationary pressures[23] - New export orders in China dropped to 44.7, the lowest since late 2022, highlighting ongoing uncertainties in trade policies[17]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Positive" for the automotive industry, indicating an expectation of overall sector returns exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% [5]. Core Insights - The mandatory implementation of Automatic Emergency Braking Systems (AEBS) in light vehicles is expected to significantly increase the market penetration of these systems, with a projected annual increase of approximately 7.3 million units in the Chinese market [2][3]. - The cost of front-view integrated camera solutions has decreased to around 500 RMB, making it a viable option for mass adoption in vehicles, particularly in the cost-sensitive segment [2]. - The commercial vehicle market is anticipated to experience substantial growth in AEBS adoption, with a potential tenfold increase in penetration rates, as only about 10% of new commercial vehicles are expected to be equipped with AEBS in the near term [3]. - The evolution of industry regulations is expected to drive a surge in testing demands for new vehicle models, creating opportunities for companies that invest in testing facilities [4]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - New national standards mandating AEBS in light vehicles are set to take effect in January 2028, with commercial vehicles following in July 2026 [1]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the front-view integrated camera solution is likely to dominate the incremental market for AEBS, benefiting suppliers of integrated chips and complete systems [2]. - The commercial vehicle sector's growth in AEBS is expected to attract competition from passenger vehicle companies, enhancing the overall maturity of the industry and facilitating entry into developed markets [3]. Testing and Development - The increasing complexity of testing requirements due to evolving standards will lead to a significant rise in testing needs, benefiting companies that proactively establish testing capabilities [4].

Policy Direction - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued the "Action Plan for Promoting the High-Quality Development of Public Funds" on May 7, 2025, following the Central Political Bureau's meeting on September 26, 2024, which called for steady progress in public fund reforms[1] - The action plan includes 25 actionable measures across five key areas, focusing on optimizing fee structures, strengthening investor-company alignment, enhancing investor services, increasing equity investment scale and stability, and promoting strong regulation to mitigate risks[6] Industry Impact - The action plan aims to increase the scale and proportion of equity investments in public funds, positioning equity funds as the primary growth area[8] - A shift towards team-based management for fund managers is encouraged, which is expected to reduce turnover rates and focus on long-term investor returns, moving away from short-term performance pressures[9] - Sales expenses are projected to decrease as the focus shifts from short-term performance-driven marketing to a more sustainable approach, integrating investor outcomes into executive performance evaluations[9] Business Model Evolution - The industry is expected to evolve into a landscape dominated by large integrated asset management and wealth management firms, with support for market-driven mergers and acquisitions among fund companies[10] - The action plan emphasizes the need for cost control alongside fee reductions to maintain profitability, with potential short-term impacts on overall industry profits if not managed effectively[10] - Smaller fund companies may face challenges in survival unless they establish differentiated business models, as the market consolidates around larger firms[10] Risk Considerations - Economic growth below expectations and declining investor risk appetite could hinder the expansion of equity fund scales[12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the new materials industry is "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The new materials industry is experiencing a continued decline in overall performance, reaching a three-year low, with a slight revenue recovery in Q4 2024 but deteriorating profitability. Economic support policies introduced in Q4 2024 are expected to improve future profitability [1][47] - The industry saw a 1.5% decrease in revenue year-on-year for 2024, with a 19.0% drop in net profit attributable to shareholders. The average gross margin was 14.1%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [11][47] - The weighted average PE ratio for the new materials industry, excluding companies with negative PE, is 67.9, slightly below the historical median [1][41] Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Industry Performance - In 2024, the new materials industry reported a total revenue of 639.998 billion, a 1.5% decrease year-on-year, and a net profit of 29.994 billion, down 19.0% year-on-year. The average gross margin was 14.1%, reflecting a 0.6 percentage point decline [11][47] - The fastest revenue growth was observed in the new energy vehicle structural materials sector, with a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, driven by rising production and demand for lightweight automotive components [15][18] 2. Q4 2024 Performance - In Q4 2024, the new materials industry saw a 6.3% year-on-year increase in revenue, totaling 1730.22 billion, while net profit decreased by 27.5% year-on-year to 55.88 billion. The average gross margin was 13.3%, down 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [26][28] - The rare earth magnetic materials sector experienced the highest revenue and net profit growth in Q4 2024, attributed to price recovery [32][33] 3. Sub-industry Performance - The new energy vehicle structural materials sector led the average stock price increase in 2024, with an average growth of 44.6%, while the aerospace materials and catalytic purification materials sectors faced the largest declines, averaging -5.7% [35][36] - The overall new materials index declined by 0.4% in 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 15.1% [35] 4. Price Trends - In 2024, new materials prices generally saw more declines than increases, with significant drops in lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices, down 22.56% and 19.27% respectively [45][46] 5. Future Outlook - The report suggests monitoring potential recovery in sub-industries such as rare earth magnetic materials and high-growth opportunities in new energy vehicle structural materials, while keeping an eye on declining sectors like aerospace materials and catalytic purification materials for signs of reversal [47]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" [3] Core Viewpoints - The performance of domestic aramid paper materials is now comparable to imported materials, with dielectric constants showing minimal differences [1] - The cost-effectiveness of domestic aramid paper is highlighted, being approximately 30% cheaper than imported alternatives, leading to cost savings of 20 RMB per water-cooled motor and 13.5 RMB per oil-cooled motor when switching to domestic materials [1][11] - There remains significant room for domestic substitution, with domestic aramid paper currently holding a market share of about 40%, indicating a potential 60% market space for further growth [1] Summary by Sections 1. Performance Comparison - Domestic aramid paper's dielectric strength is nearly on par with imported materials, with some thicknesses even outperforming them [7] - In high thickness materials, domestic products show slightly lower performance compared to imports [7] 2. Cost Analysis - Imported aramid paper prices range from 300 to 1250 RMB/kg, while domestic prices range from 200 to 1000 RMB/kg, making domestic options 20% to 30% cheaper [10][12] - Cost savings per motor when using domestic aramid paper are quantified, with water-cooled motors saving about 20 RMB and oil-cooled motors saving 13.5 RMB [11] 3. Market Potential - The market for aramid paper in the new energy vehicle sector is estimated at approximately 4.95 billion RMB annually, with potential growth to 10.07 billion RMB by 2030 as domestic production increases [2][13] - The projected demand for aramid paper in the new energy vehicle market is based on expected sales of 12.866 million units in 2024, translating to a requirement of about 1415.26 tons of aramid paper [2][13]