证券研究报告[Table_First] | 行业深度 固态电池系列 3：全固态电池工程化核 心难点在哪？ 报告要点 全固态电池工程化核心难点在于压力的处理。从第一性原理角度看，离子传 导的前提是材料接触，依赖于一定压力下实现，这分为初始压力、堆叠压力。 电池充放电中的膨胀在全固态时代下成为难点，且负极材料迭代方向上是膨 胀性更大的硅基/金属锂，对电池的稳定运行带来更大挑战。 等静压是全固态电池初始加压关键，潜力较大。全固态电池生产工艺中，核心 在前段的极片辊压、中段的等静压、后段的高压化成等环节，其中等静压可实 现较大、均应的压力，是致密化方案核心，其关键在连续化生产、设备大型化 等，当前处于完善期。 低堆叠压力是保持全固态电池良好运行关键，本质是对界面问题的改善，主 要通过材料、结构设计两方面实现。从材料上看，一方面，在硫化物电解质之 外掺杂材料改善界面控制，另一方面采用硫化物基复合电解质等是潜力较大 方案，从而实现电池"减压"运行。从结构设计上看，电池外部压强和轻量化 之间的平衡是关键。 全固态预计以 2027 年示范性装车为节点，消费类（EV tol 和人形机器人等） 场景或将在此前开启示范应用。 从投 ...

证券研究报告/行业跟踪报告 2025/11/25 | 有色金属行业 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | 铜产业链的脱碳挑战 11.2025 五矿证券研究所 有色金属行业 五矿证券研究所 有色金属行业 分析师：王小芃 登记编码：S0950523050002 邮箱：wangxiaopeng@wkzq.com.cn 联系方式：13401186193 分析师：于柏寒 登记编码：S0950523120002 邮箱：yubaihan@wkzq.com.cn 联系方式：13959271860 Contents 目录 铜在绿色脱碳进程中不可替代性 01 The irreplaceability of copper in the green decarbonization process 2℃ 目标 vs 铜供应体系 2°C Goal vs. Copper Supply System 02 03 铜的绿色转型路径与战略启示 Copper's Green Transition: Path and Strategic Implications 铜在绿色脱碳进程中不可 01替代性 1、全球碳中和目标提前— ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is optimistic [1]. Core Insights - The industry is entering a "low TC" era, with copper smelting enterprises facing significant challenges and the need for transformation [2]. - The report highlights that TC/RC has dropped to negative levels, indicating a tightening supply of copper concentrate [8][12]. - The report discusses the impact of recent production cuts from major copper mines, which have led to a significant reduction in supply [12][18]. - The profitability of smelting enterprises is under pressure, with many operating at a loss, relying on by-product revenues for survival [15][18]. - Future policies are expected to focus on controlling copper smelting capacity to prevent excessive competition and promote industry consolidation [22][23]. Summary by Sections Section 1: TC at a Decade Low - TC/RC has reached negative values, with imported copper concentrate TC around -42 USD/dry ton as of November 2025 [8]. - Major copper mines have experienced production cuts, leading to a total reduction of 570,000 tons in supply [12]. - Smelting enterprises are currently facing losses, with by-products like sulfuric acid becoming crucial for profitability [15][18]. Section 2: Future Outlook on TC - The report anticipates that TC will remain low over the next two years, with a projected supply gap of around 500,000 tons in 2026 [29]. - Policies are being developed to set a "capacity ceiling" for copper smelting to enhance industry structure and efficiency [22][23]. - The pricing model for copper smelting may shift, with companies like Freeport considering individual contract pricing to maintain profitability [25]. Section 3: Strategies for Smelting Enterprises - Smelting enterprises are encouraged to extend their supply chains and reduce costs through technological advancements and operational efficiencies [36][41]. - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing the recycling of copper and optimizing the use of by-products to enhance profitability [41][42].

25Q3风电业绩总结：盈利趋势向好 "两海"指引方向 五矿证券研究所 新能源行业 分析师：蔡紫豪 登记编码：S0950523070002 电话：0755-23375760 邮箱：caizihao@wkzq.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 2025/11/25 | 电气设备行业 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | 25Q3风电行业收入利润基本持平，盈利能力略微下降 图表2：25Q3风电行业盈利能力环比略微下滑 图表1：25Q3风电行业营收和利润环比基本持平 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 24Q1 24Q2 24Q3 24Q4 25Q1 25Q2 25Q3 营业收入 归母净利润 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 24Q1 24Q2 24Q3 24Q4 25Q1 25Q2 25Q3 毛利 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Positive" for the steel industry, indicating an expectation of overall returns exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% [4]. Core Insights - The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, which has the largest and highest-grade undeveloped iron ore reserves globally, officially commenced production on November 11, 2025. Chinese enterprises hold over 50% of the equity resources in the project [2][11]. - The initial combined production capacity of the Simandou project is expected to reach 120 million tons per year, with production ramping up from 2026 and expected to reach full capacity around 2030. This project is strategically significant for China to reduce its reliance on Australian and Brazilian iron ore imports [2][16]. - The Simandou project is anticipated to contribute 5% to global iron ore supply upon reaching full production, equivalent to 10% of China's iron ore imports in 2024 [16]. Summary by Sections Project Overview - The Simandou iron ore project is located in southeastern Guinea and features significant reserves of over 4.4 billion tons with an average iron content exceeding 65% [11][12]. - The project is divided into northern and southern blocks, with major Chinese companies like China Baowu and Chalco leading the northern block's development [12][15]. Market Impact - The project is expected to shift the global iron ore supply-demand balance from a tight equilibrium to a more relaxed state, leading to a gradual decline in iron ore prices. The average all-in sustaining cost (AISC) for Simandou is projected to be in the 75th percentile globally, which will pressure higher-cost marginal mines [3][22][23]. - The anticipated increase in supply from Simandou, along with expansions from other major mines, is expected to create downward pressure on iron ore prices, which have been fluctuating around $100 per dry ton [22][23]. Strategic Significance - The Simandou project exemplifies a successful model for Chinese enterprises to secure strategic resources abroad through collaborative efforts, enhancing China's bargaining power in the global iron ore market [24][25]. - The project is part of a broader strategy to diversify China's iron ore import sources and reduce dependency on the four major mining companies that dominate the market [16][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the solar energy industry [3]. Core Insights - The solar industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability within the main supply chain, while the auxiliary supply chain remains stable [4][6]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" measures are expected to lead to a valuation recovery in the industry, with a focus on improving supply-demand dynamics [30][26]. - Despite the current challenges, including high inventory levels and low capital expenditure, there are signs of improvement in profitability for certain segments like polysilicon [30][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the main supply chain of the solar industry showed a reduction in losses, with both gross and net profit margins improving compared to the previous quarter [6][4]. - The auxiliary supply chain's revenue and profit remained stable, indicating a lack of significant growth or decline [6][11]. Capital Expenditure and Debt Levels - Capital expenditure in the solar industry remains low, reflecting a cautious approach from companies amid ongoing losses [11][9]. - The overall debt-to-asset ratio has remained stable, with slight improvements noted in the battery segment [11][10]. Inventory and Cash Flow - Inventory levels have increased, particularly in polysilicon, which remains at a high level [16][15]. - The short-term net cash flow continues to decline in the main supply chain, while the auxiliary supply chain remains stable [15][14]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The domestic solar installation market is entering a slow season, with global installation growth expected to stabilize between 5% and 10% in the medium to long term [21][23]. - The "anti-involution" measures are seen as a pathway to restore reasonable pricing across the supply chain, which could lead to a recovery in industry valuations [30][26]. Future Outlook - The report highlights optimism regarding the potential for valuation recovery in polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery components due to the ongoing "anti-involution" efforts [30][26]. - New technologies, such as copper replacing silver in materials and advancements in perovskite solar cells, are expected to create opportunities for cost reduction and efficiency improvements [30][26].

Global Macro - The US economy faces increasing uncertainty, with a marginal weakening observed, while global manufacturing PMI remains slightly above the expansion threshold at 50.8%[6] - The impact of the US-China tariff war has been less severe than initially expected, with short-term risks appearing limited[11] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is expected to continue despite government shutdown-induced data gaps[11] Domestic Macro - China's economy continues to slow, with October exports down 1.1% year-on-year and industrial production growth declining to 4.9%[12][15] - Consumer spending remains weak, with retail sales growth at 2.9% in October, reflecting a lack of internal demand[15][16] - Fixed asset investment has dropped for the fourth consecutive month, with a year-on-year decline of 11.2% in October, particularly in real estate, which fell by 23.1%[19][21] Policy Outlook - Global uncertainty has decreased, but domestic stimulus measures remain weak, focusing on the implementation of previously announced policies rather than new aggressive stimulus[2][27] - The Chinese government is expected to maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy, with potential for small interest rate cuts if the US continues to lower rates[2][29] Asset Performance - Technology stocks have experienced significant volatility, but the overall asset market remains upward trending, influenced by recent US-China trade agreements and the longest government shutdown in US history[34][36] - Despite recent adjustments, the long-term outlook for technology stocks remains positive due to favorable liquidity conditions and superior fundamentals compared to traditional sectors[36]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company has achieved significant revenue and profit growth in Q3 2025, driven by the successful release of production capacity from the Baotou "selection and chemical integration" project [2][4] - The company’s net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 is projected to be 3.09 billion, 4.11 billion, and 5.19 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a current PE ratio of 55, 54, and 41 times [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 10.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 45.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.2% [1] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.09 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 84.7% [1][2] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 27.58 billion, up 50.7% year-on-year, while the net profit decreased by 5.9% to 2.36 billion [1] Operational Highlights - The Baotou project produced 620,000 tons of fluorite powder in the first nine months of 2025, a significant increase of 55% year-on-year [2] - The company’s self-owned fluorite mine production increased, with total fluorite products produced reaching approximately 300,000 tons, and sales of about 278,000 tons [2] - The average cost of self-produced fluorite decreased to 1,600 yuan/ton for the first three quarters and further to 1,500 yuan/ton in Q3 [2] Future Outlook - The company plans to produce 100,000 to 120,000 tons of fluorite concentrate in Q4 2025 and aims to produce 180,000 to 200,000 tons of fluorite powder from the Baotou project [3] - The company’s growth strategy is supported by the scarcity of fluorite resources and its ability to integrate the industrial chain, with a clear long-term growth logic [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electric equipment industry is optimistic [2] Core Insights - The report indicates a tight balance between supply and demand in the lithium battery materials industry, with expectations for this trend to continue into 2026 [4][9] - The report highlights significant growth in energy storage demand, with global shipments of energy storage batteries reaching 428 GWh in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 90.7% [4] - The report suggests that the lithium battery sector is entering a new cycle, driven by rising prices in certain segments and improved profitability across the industry [6][9] Summary by Sections Supply Side Analysis - Profitability across various segments has improved, with no overall losses reported in Q3 2025, marking a turnaround for the industry [4] - Capital expenditure has seen a year-on-year increase across multiple segments, indicating a positive outlook for future expansion [4] - Cash flow has slightly improved, although a significant portion is attributed to CATL [4][20] Inventory Analysis - The inventory level is considered reasonable, with the inventory-to-total-assets ratio increasing in Q3 2025 [29] Demand Analysis - The demand for energy storage has exceeded expectations, with a cumulative sales increase of 55.8% in China's power and other batteries from January to September 2025 [4] Supply and Demand Balance - A tight balance between supply and demand has led to price increases in certain segments during the peak demand season of 2025, with expectations for this trend to strengthen in 2026 [4][9] Market Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on opportunities within the lithium battery sector, particularly in energy storage batteries, lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium iron phosphate cathodes, and silicon-carbon anodes [4][9] Financial Performance Indicators - The lithium battery sector's net profit growth rate for Q3 2025 was +61%, marking three consecutive quarters of positive growth [12] - The overall net profit margin for the lithium battery sector in Q3 2025 was reported at 9.2%, showing improvement [12] Cash Flow Indicators - The cash flow situation for the industry has shown positive growth for two consecutive quarters, although the strength is uneven across different companies [20][21] Capital Expenditure Indicators - The industry has experienced a positive year-on-year growth rate in capital expenditure for three consecutive quarters, with the battery segment showing particularly strong growth [23][27] Inventory Indicators - The inventory-to-total-assets ratio for the lithium battery materials industry is at a relatively reasonable level, with a slight increase noted in Q3 2025 [29]

Group 1: Key Directions of the 15th Five-Year Plan - The 15th Five-Year Plan is positioned as a critical period for achieving socialist modernization by 2035, focusing on high-quality development and economic stability[1] - The plan emphasizes the importance of the real economy, with advanced manufacturing as the backbone, and aims to create a unified, open, competitive, and orderly market system[1] - The plan aims to enhance domestic circulation and promote consumption upgrades, with a focus on expanding the middle-income group[1] Group 2: Main Goals During the 15th Five-Year Plan - The primary goals include maintaining reasonable economic growth, steadily improving total factor productivity (TFP), and increasing the resident consumption rate[2] - The plan highlights the importance of common prosperity, technological self-reliance, and national security as key objectives[2] - The plan aims to achieve high-quality development by integrating digitalization, greening, and industrial innovation[2] Group 3: Focus on Domestic and International Circulation - Strengthening domestic circulation is crucial, with an emphasis on consumption upgrades and investment expansion[3] - The plan aims to eliminate barriers to the construction of a unified national market, facilitating smooth circulation of goods and factors across the country[3] - The plan emphasizes the need for effective investment, focusing on quality and efficiency rather than merely increasing investment volume[3] Group 4: Enhancing People's Livelihood and Common Prosperity - The plan aims to promote common prosperity by focusing on employment, income distribution, education, social security, and housing[4] - It emphasizes the need for equitable public services and improving the welfare of the population to enhance growth resilience[4] - The plan includes specific measures to support rural revitalization and agricultural modernization, ensuring food security and increasing farmers' income[4]