Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The price of germanium has surged significantly in the second half of 2024, driven by increased supply and strong demand from commercial satellites. The price peaked at 18,850 CNY/kg before retreating to around 15,000 CNY/kg in early 2025 [12][13] - Major germanium producers in China include Yunnan Germanium, Chihong Zinc & Germanium, Zhongjin Lingnan, and Luoping Zinc & Electricity, with a total estimated production of approximately 183 tons in 2024, of which 37 tons (20%) will come from new supply in Guangxi and Inner Mongolia [13][19] - The demand for germanium is expected to rise significantly due to the advancement of satellite constellation plans and increased single-satellite power. By 2030, the demand for germanium from commercial satellites is projected to reach about 70 tons, representing a 38% increase from the current supply [15][19] Summary by Sections Section 1: Germanium Price Trends - The long-term price center for germanium is expected to rise above 10,000 CNY/kg, supported by high production costs in Inner Mongolia [19][20] - The price of germanium has fluctuated historically, with significant increases noted from 6,644 CNY in early 2007 to a peak of 10,960 CNY in late 2008, followed by a drop to 7,000-8,000 CNY in 2020 [20] Section 2: Supply Sources - Inner Mongolia's Xilin Gol League is a crucial source of germanium, with significant reserves accounting for 68% of China's total and 38% of the world's reserves. The Ulan Tuogai open-pit mine is currently the largest germanium mine in China [2][19] - The total estimated germanium production capacity in 2024 from major producers is approximately 182.9 tons, with Yunnan Germanium and Chihong Zinc & Germanium being the largest contributors [17] Section 3: Demand Projections - The G60 and GW satellite constellation plans are expected to significantly increase germanium demand, with projections indicating a substantial rise in usage by 2030 [18] - The stable demand from other sectors such as fiber optics and infrared applications will further support the overall demand for germanium [15] Section 4: Market Overview - The overall market performance for the metal materials sector has shown fluctuations, with the Shenyin Wanguo Metal New Materials Index reporting a decrease of 0.89% month-on-month but a year-on-year increase of 23.19% [22][24] - The report highlights the performance of key companies in the sector, with notable increases in stock prices for several firms during March 2025 [36][37]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 [Table_Main] 稳增长，抗外扰——4.25 政治局会议点 评 事件描述 中共中央政治局 4 月 25 日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。中 共中央总书记习近平主持会议。 事件点评 报告在 4 月 2 日美国"对等关税"落地的背景下，会议指出，在接下来的经 济发展工作中继续"坚持稳中求进工作总基调"。并且提出了"统筹国内经济 工作和国际经贸斗争"，强调调整国内经济工作以最大程度化解关税冲击，提 出"以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性"。表明中央对 当前外部环境面临的风险高度重视，也有相应的应对措施。 结构上，将过去的"六稳"（稳就业、稳金融、稳外贸、稳外资、稳投资、稳 预期）调整为本次的"四稳"（稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期）。移除了 "稳金融""稳外贸""稳外资""稳投资"，加入了"稳企业"与"稳市场"。 我们认为，在年初 DeepSeek 等科技企业，以及 4 月中"类平准基金"以及 央行持续释放流动性的背景下，国内金融市场已经展现出较强韧性。"稳外贸" 与"稳外资"与海外宏观、政治立场紧密挂钩，在当前地缘政治、关税冲突的 背景下，外贸与外资 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The price of germanium has surged significantly in the second half of 2024, driven by a substantial increase in supply from regions rich in germanium resources such as Guangxi and Inner Mongolia. The total germanium production from major domestic companies is estimated to be around 183 tons, with an increase of approximately 37 tons, accounting for 20% of the total production [1][13] - The demand for germanium is expected to be greatly boosted by the advancement of commercial satellite projects, with projections indicating that by 2030, the demand for germanium from commercial satellites could reach about 70 tons, representing a 38% increase compared to the current demand [15] - The long-term price center for germanium is anticipated to rise above 10,000 yuan per kilogram, supported by the high production costs in the Inner Mongolia region, which is a significant source of supply [19][20] Summary by Sections 1. Germanium Price Trends - In the second half of 2024, germanium prices soared to a peak of 18,850 yuan per kilogram, before retreating to around 15,000 yuan per kilogram in early 2025 due to increased supply and export restrictions [12][13] 2. Supply Sources - Inner Mongolia's Xilin Gol League is a crucial source of new germanium supply, with proven reserves of 3,458 tons, accounting for 68% of China's total germanium reserves and 38% of the world's reserves. The Ulan Tuogai open-pit mine in this region is currently the largest germanium mine in China [2][19] 3. Production Costs - The complete production cost of germanium in Inner Mongolia is estimated to be over 10,000 yuan per kilogram, which may serve as a future price equilibrium point [20] 4. Demand Projections - The G60 and GW satellite constellation plans are projected to significantly increase germanium demand, with annual increments expected to reach 2,600 tons by 2030 [18] 5. Market Overview - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector has shown fluctuations, with the Shenyin Wanguo Metal New Materials Index reporting a decrease of 0.89% month-on-month but a year-on-year increase of 23.19% [22][24]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" with an expectation of overall sector returns exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% [5][21]. Core Insights - The 2025 version of the national standard for electric vehicle power batteries (GB38031-2025) is the strictest to date, set to be implemented on July 1, 2026. Key changes include revised thermal diffusion requirements and the introduction of new tests for bottom impact and fast charging cycles [2][10]. - A significant 78% of surveyed companies in the battery and automotive sectors have the technical capability to meet the new "non-ignition, non-explosion" requirements by February 2024 [3][16]. - The new standards are expected to enhance safety in the battery industry, promote high-quality development, and improve the penetration rate of new energy vehicles. Innovations in semi-solid battery materials and thermal management systems are anticipated as a result of these regulations [3][18]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The 2025 battery safety standards represent a major upgrade from the 2020 version, focusing on preventing fire and explosion during testing [10][11]. - The evolution of battery safety standards has progressed from a recommended standard in 2015 to a mandatory one in 2020, culminating in the current 2025 version [10]. Technical Preparedness - The majority of surveyed companies possess the necessary technology to comply with the new standards, with notable advancements from companies like CATL, which has developed batteries that meet the new requirements ahead of schedule [16][18]. Market Implications - The implementation of the new standards is expected to lead to a safer battery environment, reducing risks associated with battery fires in electric vehicles and fostering a competitive market for new energy vehicles and battery products [3][18].

[Table_Main] 铜企五大要素变化趋势——中国 9 家年报全扫描 事件描述 根据已披露年报、布局铜矿的 9 家中国企业（紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、江西铜 业、云南铜业、中国有色矿业、五矿资源、中国中铁、中国黄金国际、西 部矿业等等），我们对其产量、资源量、储量、成本、战略规划等进行分析。 事件点评 2024 年中国样本企业积极增储。根据公司公告，2024 年样本铜企合计资源 量同比+27%，合计储量同比+21%。紫金矿业的铜资源量仍旧保持第一，储 量同比增速也领先同行。并购方面，2024 年五矿资源和紫金矿业在并购市场 上较为活跃。勘探方面，紫金矿业 2024 年勘探投入同比+4%；中国有色矿业 通过深边部找矿新增资源量同比+10%。 ：021-61102510 ：w angxiaopeng@wkzq.com.cn 2024 年中国头部铜企产量超预期。2024 年样本铜企矿产铜产量合计 304 万 吨，同比+42 万吨，同比+16%。相较于 2024 年初的产量指引，2024 年实际 合计产量比年初产量指引高 3%，主要得益于洛阳钼业超预期完成。在样本铜 企中，2024 年紫金矿业和云南铜业的实际产量低于产 ...

[Table_Main] 有色月跟踪："对等关税"出台，避险 情绪冲击市场 报告要点 三月有色金属行情整体呈现结构性分化。工业金属受供给扰动及传统旺季需 求支撑，铜铝锡价偏强；小金属表现亮眼，锑因原料短缺和出口管制暴涨，稀 土、钴受资源国政策刺激上涨，而钨、钛紧平衡运行，短期内出口受政策博弈 受挫。宏观上全球贸易政策变动及资源国觉醒加大供应不确定性。美国"对等 关税"出台短期内导致金属价格波动大幅加剧，进一步也将致使全球双体系 供应链加速巩固及内外价差现象不断上演。 铜价受中美关税博弈、中国经济刺激政策的宏观因素，以及矿端紧缺双重驱 动。3 月冶炼厂加工费（TC）维持负值，亏损扩大至-2083 元/吨。全球铜矿 供给存在扰动，智利、秘鲁环保限产，但新能源（光伏、电网）及旺季需求支 撑价格韧性。美国加征关税将导致贸易摩擦加剧，经济衰退预期升温，受避险 情绪冲击铜价高位回落，但基本面给予铜价支撑。 锑价创新高，同时国内外剧烈分化。国内因环保停产（冷水江）、俄出口配额 削减及国家收储推动本月锑锭 99.65%价格上涨至 24 万元/吨，国际现货价 5.95 万美元/吨，折合人民币价差接近 20 万元/吨。光伏、军工 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The impact of the "reciprocal tariff" announced by the US on April 2, 2025, is expected to be limited, as the high profitability of US companies can absorb the current tariff levels [2][11] - The US has imposed tariffs ranging from 10% to 49% on Southeast Asian countries and 34% on China, with an additional 104% tariff on Chinese products announced shortly after [11] - The preliminary anti-dumping tax rates for Southeast Asian countries are expected to range from 0% to 271.28%, which may lead to a decrease in US demand and an increase in component prices, benefiting domestic US solar companies [3][15] - The trend of supply decentralization in the solar industry is emerging, with the relocation of production lines being a potential solution to address supply concentration issues [3][17] Summary by Sections Event Description - The US announced a "reciprocal tariff" plan affecting Southeast Asian countries and China, with tariffs significantly impacting the solar supply chain [11] Event Commentary - The current tariff levels are manageable for US companies, and the overall impact on the solar industry is expected to be limited [2][3] Industry Analysis - The solar supply chain is facing challenges due to concentrated production in China and Southeast Asia, leading to a need for diversification and potential relocation of production lines [3][17]

Macroeconomic Impact - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. on April 2, 2025, signals a shift in global trade dynamics and geopolitical relations, accelerating the restructuring of global economic and trade patterns[6] - The potential for a global economic recession remains high, with a long-term view suggesting a reconfiguration of global supply chains, leading to temporary supply shortages and increased investment, which may elevate medium to long-term inflation pressures[8] - The U.S. dollar's credibility may weaken due to accelerated "de-dollarization" trends and rising trade protectionism[8] Financial Market Reactions - The "tariff storm" has intensified, leading to a rapid decline in risk asset prices, with expectations of higher volatility in domestic equity markets[9] - Short-term performance of brokerage firms and credit businesses is likely to be under pressure due to heightened investor risk aversion[9] - Long-term capital inflows into the market are expected to continue, with insurance companies increasing their equity investment space[9] Commodity and Metal Sector - The impact of tariffs on commodities is categorized into two main directions: bulk commodities and China's advantageous minor metals, with significant effects on demand and pricing dynamics[10] - Copper prices are expected to remain supported in the short term due to tight domestic supply, despite macroeconomic uncertainties[12] - Zinc's overall impact from tariffs is limited due to China's small import scale from the U.S., but downstream products may face market share pressures[13] New Energy and Technology - The lithium market is largely unaffected by tariffs, as key products are exempt, but the overall demand for lithium batteries may decline due to increased costs[23] - The U.S. storage sector may face demand risks, but its overall impact on global demand remains manageable, with China maintaining a leading position in the supply chain[24] - The semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from increased domestic production due to tariffs, despite potential short-term price increases for imported chips[31] Strategic Resources and Rare Earths - China maintains a dominant position in the rare earth market, with over 70% of U.S. imports relying on Chinese sources, particularly for heavy rare earths[20] - The introduction of tariffs may lead to price increases for strategic metals, with ongoing geopolitical tensions influencing supply chain dynamics[19] Automotive and High-End Manufacturing - The automotive sector is likely to see significant price increases in the U.S. due to a 25% tariff on vehicles and parts, impacting domestic demand[28] - China's engineering machinery exports are relatively insulated from tariffs, with limited exposure to the U.S. market, allowing for continued global operations[33] Consumer and Trade Dynamics - The tourism and retail sectors may benefit from changes in tax policies, with domestic consumption potentially increasing due to higher prices on imported goods[34] - The overall trade landscape is shifting, with opportunities for domestic businesses to capitalize on tariff-induced market changes[34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electrical equipment industry is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The U.S. government's imposition of a 125% tariff on Chinese imports, particularly affecting the lithium battery sector, is expected to impact China's export market significantly, with an estimated loss of approximately $15.3 billion in lithium battery exports to the U.S. in 2024 [2][13] - Despite the tariff pressures, China's lithium battery industry is anticipated to maintain strong competitiveness due to its established supply chain and production efficiency compared to U.S. manufacturers [16][17] - The report highlights that the U.S. will likely rely more on domestic production, which may lead to higher costs and delayed price parity for electric vehicles [16] Summary by Sections Event Description - On April 10, 2025, the U.S. announced an increase in tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, continuing a trend that began with the IRA Act in 2022 [2][10] Event Commentary - The U.S. tariffs are expected to have a more significant impact on the export of energy storage batteries, which constitute a major portion of China's lithium battery exports to the U.S. [3][13] - In 2024, China's lithium battery exports are projected to account for 16% of total shipments, with the U.S. being the largest market [12][13] Global Supply Chain Impact - The report discusses the potential shifts in the global lithium battery supply chain, noting that while China may reduce exports to the U.S., other countries like Japan and South Korea may partially fill the demand gap [16] - The U.S. domestic market will likely face higher production costs and lower efficiency compared to China, which could delay the adoption of affordable electric vehicles [16] Implications for China - The increase in tariffs may lead to a reduction in exports to the U.S. and an increase in prices for exported products, particularly energy storage batteries [17] - The report suggests that China may respond by investing in local production facilities in the U.S. or exploring markets with lower tariffs [18][19]