设现代化产业体系。"这意味着与过去几轮大规模投资有所不同的是，传统框 架下，长期低效益的短期投资刺激政策将不再是重点，取而代之的是对新质生 产力的孵化与培育，将更多力量投向具有长期收益率的战略新兴产业上，我们 认为部分科技产业政策，特别是欧美政府打压方向的投资规模有望进一步扩 张。 12.9 中央政治局会议解读 事件点评 政治局会议首次提出"加强超常规逆周期调节"，释放出近年来较强的稳增长 措辞，或意味着 2025 年宏观政策将对经济带来大幅支撑。与 2024 年中央经 济工作会议提出的"稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破"有所不同，此次政治局 会议加入了"守正创新"、"系统集成"以及"协同配合"三个方向。预计明 年产业政策，特别是在科技领域上将进一步扩张，同时，超长期逆周期调控政 策的出台将与财政、货币相配合，以系统集成为核心，在长期改革上突出效率 与重点。 会议将"稳住楼市股市"放在靠前位置，将提振资产价格作为宏观经济稳增长 的核心目标，进一步凸显了明年全年宏观政策的着力点。对房地产的描述剔除 "止跌"，意味着中央对自 9.26 政治局会议后出台的宏观政策一揽子刺激方 案出台以来基本面改善的肯定。其次，过去陡峭 ...

证券研究报告|行业周报 2024/12/04 珍惜有限 创造无限 电气设备行业 投资评级 看好 汽车报废更新申请超200万辆，以旧换新政策有望延续 五矿证券研究所新能源行业 分析师：张斯恺 登记编码：S0950523110002 邮箱：zhangsikai@wkzq.com.cn 联系人：顾思捷 邮箱：gusj@wkzq.com.cn 分析师：张鹏 登记编码：S0950523070001 邮箱：zhangpeng1@wkzq.com.cn 联系人：钟林志 邮箱：zhonglinzhi@wkzq.com.cn 分析师：蔡紫豪 登记编码：S0950523070002 邮箱：caizihao@wkzq.com.cn 分析师：张娜威 登记编码： S0950524070001 邮箱： zhangnawei@wkzq.com.cn Contents 目录 02 01 03 新能源产业趋势点评 产业动态&数据跟踪 附录 能源金属 电池及材料 新能源车 光伏/风电 储能/电网 电力（新能源/传统能源） 行业指数涨跌幅 细分板块行情回顾 -- 新能源产业趋势点评 珍惜有限 创造无限 4 新能源产业趋势点评（2024年11月16 ...

[Table_Main] 【消费瞭望录】 连锁酒店投资框架：如何观测行业周期？ 报告要点 连锁酒店业是服务消费中一个较为重要的板块，本文意在解析连锁酒店业的 周期逻辑及探寻连锁酒店业的投资观测指标。 重点内容 行业：市场集中度高，龙头规模优势明显 连锁酒店业规模稳健扩张，客房数占比较高。截至 2023 年底，中国住宿业设 施总数 61.2 万家，中国酒店业设施总数 32.3 万家，占比 52.9%；中国住宿 业客房总数 1804.9 万间，中国酒店业客房总数 1649.8 万间，占比 91.4%。 可见，国内酒店业客房数规模较其他住宿业规模大。 全国连锁酒店市场供给集中度较高，其中龙头优势明显。分品牌看，2023 年 我国连锁酒店业 TOP10 品牌合计份额为 55.2%；TOP3 品牌合计份额为 38.3%，分别为锦江、华住、首旅酒店。分市场看，中端连锁酒店>经济型连 锁酒店>高端连锁酒店>豪华型连锁酒店。 投资：连锁酒店行业兼具周期性和成长性 酒店产业链由上中下游三方组成，连锁酒店行业位于产业链中游，主要面向 商务、旅行客户群体。 周期性： 连锁酒店业是高标准化的行业，需求周期与国家宏观经济波动的周 期具 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 [Table_Main] 有色金属脉动跟踪：并购与勘探，谁是 矿业公司资源增长的主力军？ 报告要点 专题摘要：并购与勘探，谁是矿业公司资源增长的主力军？ 资源是矿业企业可持续发展的基础，从矿业发展规律来看，金属资源的有限 性和大型、低成本资源的稀缺性，决定矿业公司内生禀赋。以全球 TOP10 的 铜矿企业为例，资源量/产量比值大多在 100 以上，储产比在 20-55 区间。 2024 年全球固体勘探投资下滑 3%，但铜锂等重点品种仍在增长。草根勘查 占比大幅下滑至 23%，而矿山勘探阶段提升至 38%，随着勘查逐渐转向后期 可行性研究和矿山勘查，全球范围内重大的新矿发现屈指可数，并持续存在 更大不确定性。从龙头矿业企业来看，前十七大（采用 24Q3 市值排名剔除 煤炭和 Wheaton 金属流公司）过去十年最主要矿种勘探投资 CAGR 为 6%。 并购仍是全球矿业成长的最主要路径。过去二十年，前十七大（采用 24Q3 市 值排名剔除煤炭和金属流公司）金属矿业企业中，只 4 家公司更青睐通过自 有矿山挖潜实现了成长。十家大型矿业公司并购获取资源占比 40-90%。兼顾 勘查投资与并 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the mining industry, specifically focusing on copper resources and the company's operations in this sector [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Copper Price Outlook**: The company anticipates a tightening supply in the copper market, which is expected to drive copper prices upward. The global copper production distribution is heavily concentrated in three countries: Chile, Peru, and China [2][5]. 2. **Capital Expenditure Trends**: Over the past 10 to 15 years, capital expenditures peaked around 2011-2012. Since then, new copper mining projects have become increasingly scarce, compounded by declining ore grades and unforeseen disruptions [3]. 3. **Demand Dynamics**: The primary demand for copper is driven by the electricity sector, which accounted for 47% of copper usage last year. The transition in global energy structures is projected to increase overall demand for copper [4]. 4. **Future Supply Deficits**: The company forecasts global copper supply deficits of 250,000 tons in 2024, 240,000 tons in 2025, and 240,000 tons in 2026, supporting a bullish outlook on copper prices [5]. 5. **Company Acquisitions**: The company has enhanced its market position through acquisitions, including the purchase of the Potomac mining project and the Paramas competitor in 2014 [6][7]. 6. **Resource Growth**: The company reported significant growth in its resource base, attributed to the acquisition of the Potomac project and new resources from the Babas project [7]. 7. **Production Challenges**: The company faced production challenges due to community issues at the Abas project, impacting profitability. However, there is potential for improvement if production and sales increase [8]. 8. **Production Estimates**: The Babas project produced approximately 300,000 tons last year, with expectations for this year ranging between 280,000 to 320,000 tons, indicating a potential increase in output [9]. 9. **New Projects**: The company is advancing several new projects, including the Gansville project, which is expected to increase electrolytic membrane production to 80,000 tons, although initial costs may limit profit contributions [10][11]. 10. **Profit Projections**: The company projects net profits of $260 million in 2024, $365 million in 2025, and $467 million in 2026, reflecting a positive outlook on production and earnings growth [14]. Additional Important Content - **Risks**: The company faces risks associated with overseas projects, including potential force majeure events, safety and environmental concerns, and geopolitical risks that could impact production [14].

Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the **Electrical Equipment** industry as **Positive** [4] Core Viewpoints - **BYD's Blade Battery** has officially entered the **construction machinery electrification** field with the release of three new battery products: the **hybrid construction machinery blade battery**, the **fastest-charging pure electric construction machinery battery**, and the **CTB construction machinery blade battery** [1] - The key highlights of the products include **safety**, **fast charging capability**, and **extreme working condition adaptability**, addressing the pain points of construction machinery electrification such as **range and charging issues**, and **battery performance under complex working conditions** [2][10] - The **penetration rate of electrification** in construction machinery varies significantly across different types, with **lighter and fixed-scenario equipment** like **elevating work platforms** and **forklifts** having higher electrification rates, while **heavy-load and complex-condition equipment** like **excavators** have less than 1% electrification penetration [3][16] - With **cost reduction**, **battery performance improvement**, and **charging infrastructure development**, the **electrification penetration rate** in construction machinery is expected to further increase [3][16] Product Performance and Parameters - **Super Hybrid Version**: 4C charging rate, 120Wh/kg energy density, 17.3kWh single-pack capacity, 10-minute charging from 20% to 80% SOC [9] - **Super Fast Charging Version (Pure Electric)**: 400A charge/discharge current, 160Wh/kg energy density, 37.7kWh single-pack capacity, 1500V maximum voltage, ≥7000 cycles, 2C fast charging across all temperature ranges [9] - **Super Integrated Version**: Uses CTB battery technology, 400A charge/discharge current, 320Wh/L volumetric energy density, 97.7kWh single-pack capacity [9] Construction Machinery Electrification Market - In 2023, the **domestic construction machinery market** sold **1.774 million units**, with a **4% YoY growth**, where **industrial vehicles** accounted for **66.2%** of the total sales [3][14] - The **electrification penetration rate** in 2023-2024H1 for **elevating work platforms**, **forklifts**, **loaders**, **excavators**, and **mining trucks** was **>90%**, **67.9%**, **9.0%**, **0.05%**, and **5.4%**, respectively [16][17] - **BYD**, **CATL**, **CALB**, and **EVE Energy** have already made significant strides in the **construction machinery battery sector**, with **BYD** collaborating closely with **XCMG** [3][19][29] Industry Performance - The **Electrical Equipment** industry has shown a **14% increase** in performance as of **November 29, 2024**, compared to the **CSI 300** index [5]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 [Table_Main] 有色金属脉动跟踪：地缘冲突升级，金 价走强 报告要点 主要观点更新： 贵金属：地缘冲突升级，金价反弹 铜：美元偏强压制铜价，需求呈现淡季不淡 铝：高盈利有望持续，绿电铝可能分化 铅锌：关注冶炼减产进展，铅锌价格震荡 锡：佤邦复产预期增强，锡价仍然承压 镍：价格底部震荡，纯镍供应短期偏紧 钨：钨市场价格稳定上行，持货商让利意愿弱 锑：氧化锑出口大幅下降，政策落地后或有改善 钼：价格横盘震荡，钢招相对稳定 稀土：四重因素看好稀土产业链价值回归 钛：钛材市场需求稳定，海绵钛价格小幅回升 金属价格涨跌： 贵金属周度涨跌幅：COMEX 黄金（5.21%），COMEX 银（3.36%），LME 铂（2.12%），LME 钯（7.36%） 工业金属周度涨跌幅：LME 铜（0.02%），LME 铝（-1.00%），LME 铅（3.43%）， LME 锌（0.63%），LME 镍（2.20%），LME 锡（1.47%） 战略小金属周度涨跌幅：碳酸锂（0.46%），海绵钛（-2.22%），钨精矿（0.70%）， 钴（4.60%），镁锭（-2.73%），氧化镨钕（-2.28%） ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 [Table_Main] 弗迪电池发布会点评：携超混+快充 +CTB 技术进军工程机械电动化领域 事件描述 2024 年 11 月 26 日，弗迪电池亮相 bauma CHINA2024 上海宝马工程机械 展，共发布 3 款工程机械电池新品：全球首款量产超混工程机械刀片电池、 全球首款量产充电最快的纯电工程机械电池，以及全球首款量产 CTB 工程机 械刀片电池。弗迪电池自此正式进入工程机械领域。 事件点评 本次产品亮点主要在于安全性、补能能力、工程机械极端工况应对能力。工程 机械电动化面对的关键问题在于：①续航与补能问题；②复杂工况环境影响 电池性能。针对工程机械电动化痛点，本次产品亮点在于：（1）安全性方面， 已通过电芯 28 针热安全针刺试验，在 CTB 技术下车体扭转刚度可达 54000 Nm/deg，能抵御 1200J 冲击，抗挤压＞800kN，振动模态>80Hz。（2）补能 方面，主要通过快充技术提升补能效率，以纯超级快充版为例，可达全温域 2C 快充，最高耐压 1500V。（3）极限工况应对方面，弗迪工程机械刀片电 池振动模态是老国标 4~6 倍，防腐性能高于行业 2 ...

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