高端制造产业跟踪（1月）： DeepSeek爆火预示着投资方向的何种变化？ 五矿证券研究所 高端制造行业 分析师：祁岩 登记编码：S0950523090001 邮箱： qiyan1@wkzq.com.cn 电话：010-56307033 联系人：周越 邮箱： zhouyue@wkzq.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025/02/07 | 机械设备行业 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | 联系人：张雪 邮箱： zhangxue1@wkzq.com.cn Contents 目录 板块观点 01 02 数据跟踪 03 04 行情回顾 新闻&公告 板块观点 1. 板块观点 DeepSeek系列为什么爆火？ 图表1：DeepSeek-R1性能比肩OpenAI o1 图表2：DeepSeek-R1的价格远低于OpenAI o1 资料来源：DeepSeek，五矿证券研究所 珍惜有限 创造无限 资料来源：DeepSeek，五矿证券研究所 4 4 • DeepSeek实现行业领先模型能力，并且对代码开源。在AIME2024、Codeforces、GPQA Diamond、Math-50 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 政策加码驱动消费回升，春节效应加速需求释放 报告要点 12 月社零同比+3.7%，政策加码推动市场复苏。（1）12 月社零总额为 45172 亿元，同比+3.7%，其中商品零售额为 39623 亿元，同比增速+3.9%。全年 社零总额达到 48.79 万亿元，同比+3.5%。尽管受到季节性因素影响，消费仍 维持增长态势，尤其在年末节庆和春节即将到来时，消费需求得到提前释放。 （2）线上和线下零售均呈现稳步增长趋势。具体来看，12 月线上零售额为 1.28 万亿元，同比+2.7%；12 月线下零售额为 3.24 万亿元，同比+4.1% ，显 示出"两新"政策叠加消费券支持下国内消费需求正在逐步回升，市场复苏 迹象明显。（3）消费品以旧换新政策持续显效，通讯器材类/家用电器类分别 同比+14.0%/39.3%，冰雪运动季支持体育娱乐用品类同比+16.7%。（4）各 部门存量政策落实，增量政策出台，推动房地产市场止跌回稳，对地产后周 期消费改善带来支撑，带动家具类/建筑装潢类消费同比+8.8%/0.8%。 出行市场整体回暖，免税购物平稳回升。（1）12 月旅客周转量较 2019 年恢 复 ...

城市快速渗透 2025以旧换新落地，将带动纯电车在低线 汽车行业 投资评级 看好 五矿证券研究所 新能源行业 分析师：张娜威 联系电话：18551983137 登记编码： S0950524070001 邮箱： zhangnawei@wkzq.com.cn 联系人：顾思捷 联系电话：18862755264 邮箱：gusj@wkzq.com.cn 证券研究报告|行业点评 2025/02/06 报告摘要 以旧换新政策包括报废更新和置换更新，报废更新指将车辆报废回收后购入新车，由国家制定补贴细则；置换更新是指将旧车转让 并购入新车，由各省制定细则，报废更新和置换更新不可同时享受。2025年以旧换新政策对报废更新和置换更新均做出调整。 报废更新：将国排放四标准纳入补贴范围，注册登记时间较上一年向后推迟，新增可享受报废更新的车辆合计约1296.4万辆，与 2024年体量相当。 置换更新：统一补贴标准上限，购入新能源车最高不超过1.5万元，购入燃油车最高不超过1.3万元，具体细则仍由各省制定实施。 2024年在以旧换新中换购新能源车比例超过60%，纯电动车增速回升、插混增速回落，低价纯电动车在低线城市大规模渗透，渗 透率提 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 公募基金被动投资迎来发展机遇期 事件描述 2025 年 1 月 26 日，证监会印发《促进资本市场指数化投资高质量发展行动方案》 （下文简称《方案》）。 事件点评 新投资范式、居民财富迁移、政策红利共振，指数基金迎来蓬勃发展时期。近年来， A股市场震荡走弱，核心资产抱团行情逐渐瓦解，市场更加关注组合"反脆弱"能力； 伴随着长端利率持续下行、居民财富迁移，A股市场面临投资范式的重构。政策端看， 监管层大力支持指数化投资的发展，政策体系不断完善。经济和资本市场高质量发展 要求下，指数化投资已成为服务国家战略和实体经济的重要抓手，也是居民财富管理 的重要工具。2024 年，全市场 ETF 总规模达到 3.73 万亿元，同比增长 81%，ETF 有望成为助力提升公募基金 A股持仓的重要工具。 指数化投资高质量发展蓝图落地，推动公募基金行业主被动投资协调发展、助力中长 期资金入市。健全投资和融资相协调的资本市场功能是资本市场高质量发展的关键任 务，只有壮大理性成熟的中长期投资力量、增强资本市场内在稳定性、提升投资者获 得感，才能在投资端源源不断地引入活水，更好的将居民财富引入国家战略支持的领 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the "Two New" policy and consumption vouchers have significantly contributed to stable consumption growth in 2024, with a total retail sales of social consumer goods reaching 48.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.48% [2][12] - The report emphasizes that the "Two New" policy has effectively stimulated consumption in sectors such as home appliances, electronics, and automobiles, leading to a notable increase in consumer spending [3][15] - The report forecasts that the consumption heat will continue to rise in 2025, driven by ongoing optimization of subsidy policies and a focus on boosting domestic demand [5][22] Summary by Sections 1. Review of 2024 - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2024 reached 48.79 trillion yuan, with an average growth rate of 5.35% over 2023-2024 [2][12] - Online retail sales amounted to 15.53 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2% year-on-year, while offline consumption increased by 4.83% [2] - The "Two New" policy and consumption vouchers were pivotal in stabilizing consumption, particularly during major shopping events [12][15] 2. Policy Impact on Consumption - The "Two New" policy has fostered a habitual consumption pattern among residents, particularly in the home appliance and electronics sectors, with significant year-on-year growth in these areas [3][17] - The issuance of consumption vouchers has stimulated long-term consumption in daily life sectors such as dining and entertainment [3][17] 3. Demand and Economic Potential - Despite the positive effects of the "Two New" policy, overall demand remains weak, indicating substantial potential for further demand release [4][20] - The report highlights that residents' wealth levels are crucial for determining consumption expenditure, with the need for income growth and financial asset price recovery being emphasized [4][20] 4. Outlook for 2025 - The central economic work conference has prioritized boosting consumption for 2025, with plans to increase the scale of the "Two New" policy and expand the categories eligible for subsidies [5][21] - The report anticipates that the consumption market will experience sustained growth, supported by improved employment conditions and rising household incomes [6][22]

Investment Rating - The report rates the leisure service industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant changes in generational consumption patterns in China compared to Japan, highlighting the importance of understanding these shifts for future market strategies [2][3] - It identifies three core trends in China's generational development: accelerated aging and declining birth rates, increasing single population, and expanding lower-tier market [3][22] Summary by Sections Section 1: Generational Consumption Changes - The consumption changes are influenced by economic foundations, demographic environments, and consumption logic, which collectively shape individual values and consumption perspectives [2][10] - Historical processes and cultural differences necessitate a careful comparison between countries, with Japan serving as a relevant case study for understanding China's consumption evolution [2][10] Section 2: Japan's Consumption Era - Japan's consumption has evolved through four distinct eras, each characterized by different consumer behaviors and societal influences [11][15] - The first era focused on urbanization and mass consumption, while subsequent eras saw shifts towards individualism and quality over quantity [11][12] Section 3: China's Consumption Trends - China's consumption landscape is currently in a transitional phase, moving from the third to the fourth consumption era, with notable characteristics of consumption layering rather than simple upgrades or downgrades [19][22] - The report highlights the need to focus on the potential of lower-tier markets, the booming health and elderly care industries, and the unique demands of the single economy [3][22] Section 4: Demographic Analysis - The report presents a comparative analysis of demographic trends between China and Japan, noting that China has entered a phase of negative population growth earlier than Japan [25][31] - It discusses the implications of aging populations and declining birth rates on consumption patterns, emphasizing the need for businesses to adapt to these changes [22][23] Section 5: Family Structure and Single Economy - Changes in family structures are closely linked to societal developments, with a notable rise in single-person households in both Japan and China [32][40] - The report suggests that cultural differences and housing policies contribute to the slower growth of single households in China compared to Japan [40] Section 6: Urbanization and Market Opportunities - The report underscores the importance of urbanization in driving consumption growth, particularly in lower-tier markets, which present significant opportunities for businesses [34][39]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" indicating an expected overall return exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% [3]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of carbon asset evaluation, highlighting that policy factors are fundamental in influencing carbon asset price levels. Various methods for carbon asset evaluation are discussed, including market, income, and cost approaches [2][14]. - The report provides specific valuation examples, such as the market-based valuation of mangrove carbon sinks at 205.53 CNY/ton and the income-based valuation of carbon emission allowances for a thermal power company at 14.16 million CNY [17][21]. Summary by Sections Carbon Asset Evaluation - The report outlines the newly released guidelines for carbon asset evaluation by the China Asset Appraisal Association, which are advisory and not mandatory. It specifies that professionals in asset evaluation must possess knowledge related to carbon asset evaluation [2][7]. - The evaluation methods include market, income, cost, and innovative methods like shadow pricing and option pricing [14]. Valuation Examples - Using the market approach, the valuation of a specific mangrove carbon sink project was calculated to be 353.52 million CNY based on a transaction price of 205.53 CNY/ton for 17,200 tons [17]. - The income approach for a thermal power company projected a value of 14.16 million CNY for carbon emission allowances over the next three years, based on specific growth and pricing assumptions [21]. - The shadow pricing method estimated the carbon emission rights shadow price in Shanghai's industrial sector at 1,332.16 CNY/ton for 2021 [24][25]. Information Disclosure - The report stresses the significance of information disclosure in carbon asset evaluation, recommending that relevant parties prioritize transparency regarding carbon asset details, ownership, and valuation factors [27][29].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-bank financial sector is "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the increasing importance of ESG standards in China, with a shift from voluntary to mandatory disclosure requirements for companies [2][10] - The green credit balance reached 35.8 trillion yuan by the end of September 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.1% [9][14] - The issuance of green bonds has slowed down, with a 6% decrease in issuance amount compared to 2023, totaling 679.16 billion yuan [18][19] Summary by Sections Policy Dynamics - Multiple top-level design documents for green transformation were released in 2024, indicating a strong governmental push towards sustainable development [1][10] - Key policies include the "Opinions on Accelerating the Comprehensive Green Transformation of Economic and Social Development" and "Opinions on Promoting the Construction of a Beautiful China" [10][11] Green Financial Products Dynamics - Green credit remains the primary financial tool for supporting green industries, with significant growth in loans [14][16] - The average issuance rate for AAA-rated bonds in 2024 was reported at 2.49% for 3-year bonds and 2.58% for 5-year bonds [19][20] - The total number of ESG funds increased by 121 in 2024, with a total scale of 825.52 billion yuan [23][24] Environmental Rights Financing Tools - Water rights trading in 2024 reached a total volume of 1.47 billion cubic meters, with a transaction amount of 282 million yuan [26][27]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electrical equipment sector is "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The national carbon market is expected to operate healthily and steadily in 2025, with policy continuity being a key theme. The carbon price is anticipated to maintain slight fluctuations, and the carbon futures market is not expected to be launched in the short term [3][4] - Significant changes are expected in the national carbon emission quota market in 2024, with the introduction of the "Interim Regulations on Carbon Emission Trading Management" providing a clear legal basis for market operations. The indirect emissions from power generation facilities, steel, cement, and electrolytic aluminum industries will no longer be included in the national carbon trading market management [1][3] - The CCER market has gradually returned to normal after its restart, with the first batch of CCER projects registered by December 31, 2024. The regulatory authorities are focusing on the standardization and integrity of the CCER project registration and emission reduction process [2][3] Summary by Sections National Carbon Market Policy - The national carbon market is set to see important changes in 2024, with the introduction of new regulations and a focus on aligning with EU carbon market rules. The first control year for the steel, cement, and electrolytic aluminum industries is planned for 2024, with compliance expected by the end of 2025 [1][12] - The carbon emission quota transfer policy will be introduced in 2024, changing the compliance cycle to "annual compliance" to alleviate pressure on companies facing quota shortages [1][3] Carbon Market Trends - The carbon emission quota market is expected to exhibit significant tidal phenomena, with trading volumes surging as compliance deadlines approach and dropping sharply afterward [1][3] - The CCER market has seen a total transaction volume of 375,300 tons and a total transaction value of 23.835 million yuan on its first day of reopening, with an average price of 63.51 yuan per ton [2][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [5] Core Views - The report highlights the strengthening of the company's position as a hub for domestic and international trade, driven by platform economies and operational improvements [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from the implementation of the "Overall Plan for Deepening International Trade Comprehensive Reform in Yiwu City," which aims to enhance the business environment and promote integrated development of domestic and foreign trade [2][3] - The company's self-operated sales platform, ICMALL, which focuses on imported goods, is projected to continue driving revenue growth, contributing 62.11% to the main business revenue in 2023 [3][4] Summary by Sections Event Description - The National Development and Reform Commission issued a plan to deepen international trade reform in Yiwu City, which the company announced it would implement [1] Event Commentary - The plan aims to improve the business environment by optimizing trade standards and enhancing logistics systems, which will benefit small and medium-sized enterprises [2] - It includes measures for digital innovation and financial support to reduce costs and improve access to financing for SMEs [2] Development Opportunities - The company is expected to see sustained revenue growth from its import business, supported by the plan's initiatives to enhance the import environment [3] - The logistics system's modernization and digital warehousing services are anticipated to position the company as an efficient hub in the trade logistics network [3] - The financial services provided by the company, such as Yiwu Pay, have shown significant growth, with cross-border payment transactions exceeding 20 billion RMB in the first nine months of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 770% [3] Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2024, the company's main business revenue exceeded 10.6 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 34%, with operating profit reaching 2.959 billion RMB, up 8.83% [4] - The financial forecasts indicate a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with projected revenues of 14.1 billion RMB in 2024 and 15.7 billion RMB in 2025 [12]