证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 民企座谈会释放积极信号 事件描述 2025 年 2 月 17 日，习近平总书记在京出席民营企业座谈会，并发表重要讲 话。 事件点评 时隔 6 年，习近平总书记再次组织召开民营企业座谈会，一是正处在"贸易摩 擦 2.0"阶段，二是全球 AI 竞赛愈加激烈，三是 2025 年是"十四五"收官之 年，四是宏观经济在近期虽然已经燃起星星之火，但是信心依然偏弱。此次会 议的目的是给民企吃下"定心丸"，与过往有所不同的是，此次"定心丸"是 在外部压力增长的初期，而非过过去的冲击之后，我们认为这将有利于化解接 下来关税以及科技装备竞争的冲击。对可能出台的政策方向判断，将对党的二 十届三中全会中的第五条：坚持和落实"两个毫不动摇"进行延展，进一步规 范公平、法制，进一步解决融资难等历史问题。除此之外，除了此次会议后可 能出台的相关政策外，还应进一步关注《民营经济促进法》以及会后各地召开 的民企座谈会。 此次会议多次强调了"党的基本方针政策不会变"，坚持"两个毫不动摇"， 我们认为释放出两个信号：首先是肯定了民营企业在技术浪潮和民生稳定中的 重要作用，其次是以最高层的声音传递出会破除过去不利于民企发 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 民企座谈会释放积极信号 事件描述 2025 年 2 月 17 日，习近平总书记在京出席民营企业座谈会，并发表重要讲 话。 时隔 6 年，习近平总书记再次组织召开民营企业座谈会，一是正处在"贸易摩 擦 2.0"阶段，二是全球 AI 竞赛愈加激烈，三是 2025 年是"十四五"收官之 年，四是宏观经济在近期虽然已经燃起星星之火，但是信心依然偏弱。此次会 议的目的是给民企吃下"定心丸"，与过往有所不同的是，此次"定心丸"是 在外部压力增长的初期，而非过过去的冲击之后，我们认为这将有利于化解接 下来关税以及科技装备竞争的冲击。对可能出台的政策方向判断，将对党的二 十届三中全会中的第五条：坚持和落实"两个毫不动摇"进行延展，进一步规 范公平、法制，进一步解决融资难等历史问题。除此之外，除了此次会议后可 能出台的相关政策外，还应进一步关注《民营经济促进法》以及会后各地召开 的民企座谈会。 此次会议多次强调了"党的基本方针政策不会变"，坚持"两个毫不动摇"， 我们认为释放出两个信号：首先是肯定了民营企业在技术浪潮和民生稳定中的 重要作用，其次是以最高层的声音传递出会破除过去不利于民企发展的障碍， ...

[Table_Main] 《铜产业高质量发展实施方案（2025- 2027）》有哪些新看点？ 事件描述 近日，工业和信息化部、国家发展改革委、教育部、自然资源部、生态环境部、 商务部、应急管理部、国务院国资委、海关总署、中国证监会、国家矿山安监 局等 11 部门联合发布《铜产业高质量发展实施方案（2025—2027 年）》。 《实施方案》主要目标包括原材料保障、技术创新、产业升级等方面。 事件点评 上游：原材料保障给予量化指引，关注国内重点矿区。《实施方案》提出，到 2027 年，力争国内铜矿资源量增长 5%—10%。具体举措包括"推动国内资 源增储上产，推进西藏、新疆、云南、黑龙江等重点地区铜矿资源基地建设。" 我国铜矿资源矿床规模小，小型矿山占比高达 88%；根据 S&P，大型矿山（资 源量>50 万吨）主要集中于西藏、云南、新疆等地。因此，建议关注上述重点 地区的投资机会。 中游：铜冶炼有序发展，优化产业布局。 1）政策对新增冶炼产能有收紧趋势：继《2024—2025 年节能降碳行动方案》 提及从严控制铜冶炼新增产能之后，本次方案再次强调了"新建矿铜冶炼项 目需配套相应铜精矿"及"大气污染防治重点区域不 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 [Table_Main] 比亚迪发布"天神之眼"，智驾平权大 势已成 事件点评 "天神之眼"C 的纯视觉方案高快 NoA 硬件成本将降至 4000 元以内。12摄 像头+5 毫米波雷达+12 超声波雷达配合 Orin N 或国产供应商地平线和黑芝 麻芯片的硬件方案成本将降至 4000 元以内，大幅降低车型搭载门槛。作为对 比，2020 年小鹏汽车的爆款车型 P7 当时达到相近能力付出的硬件成本在 1 万元以上。 "二郎神"三目摄像头配合占用网络大幅提升有限资源下高速 NoA 可靠性。 该三目摄像头方案与众不同的地方在于并非采用常见的短中长焦摄像头的组 合，而是采用双广角双目摄像头加长焦摄像头的方案，利用类似人眼双目测 距原理，配合占用网络，极大降低了感知对识别的依赖，增加了系统面对难以 识别的物体时的安全性。 高快 NoA 功能下放至最低 7.88 万元的海鸥智驾自由版，将能覆盖约 87%的 新能源汽车销售。据高工智能汽车数据，2024 年新能源汽车终端交付高速 NoA 功能车辆约 197 万辆，绝大部分是新能源汽车，约占总销量的 18%。而 7.88 万元以上的新能源车占总体国内 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 [Table_Main] 比亚迪发布"天神之眼"，智驾平权大 势已成 事件描述 [Table_Author] 分析师 张娜威 登记编码：S0950524070001 联系人 顾思捷 [Table_Invest] 汽车 评级： 看好 日期： 2025.02.17 "天神之眼"C 的纯视觉方案高快 NoA 硬件成本将降至 4000 元以内。12摄 像头+5 毫米波雷达+12 超声波雷达配合 Orin N 或国产供应商地平线和黑芝 麻芯片的硬件方案成本将降至 4000 元以内，大幅降低车型搭载门槛。作为对 比，2020 年小鹏汽车的爆款车型 P7 当时达到相近能力付出的硬件成本在 1 万元以上。 "二郎神"三目摄像头配合占用网络大幅提升有限资源下高速 NoA 可靠性。 该三目摄像头方案与众不同的地方在于并非采用常见的短中长焦摄像头的组 合，而是采用双广角双目摄像头加长焦摄像头的方案，利用类似人眼双目测 距原理，配合占用网络，极大降低了感知对识别的依赖，增加了系统面对难以 识别的物体时的安全性。 高快 NoA 功能下放至最低 7.88 万元的海鸥智驾自由版，将能覆盖约 87%的 新能源汽车 ...

事件点评 [Table_Main] 《铜产业高质量发展实施方案（2025- 2027）》有哪些新看点？ 事件描述 近日，工业和信息化部、国家发展改革委、教育部、自然资源部、生态环境部、 商务部、应急管理部、国务院国资委、海关总署、中国证监会、国家矿山安监 局等 11 部门联合发布《铜产业高质量发展实施方案（2025—2027 年）》。 《实施方案》主要目标包括原材料保障、技术创新、产业升级等方面。 上游：原材料保障给予量化指引，关注国内重点矿区。《实施方案》提出，到 2027 年，力争国内铜矿资源量增长 5%—10%。具体举措包括"推动国内资 源增储上产，推进西藏、新疆、云南、黑龙江等重点地区铜矿资源基地建设。" 我国铜矿资源矿床规模小，小型矿山占比高达 88%；根据 S&P，大型矿山（资 源量>50 万吨）主要集中于西藏、云南、新疆等地。因此，建议关注上述重点 地区的投资机会。 中游：铜冶炼有序发展，优化产业布局。 1）政策对新增冶炼产能有收紧趋势：继《2024—2025 年节能降碳行动方案》 提及从严控制铜冶炼新增产能之后，本次方案再次强调了"新建矿铜冶炼项 目需配套相应铜精矿"及"大气污染防治重点区域不 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" indicating an expected overall sector return higher than the benchmark index by more than 10% [4]. Core Insights - The 2025 Spring Festival consumption market is expected to be robust, driven by government policies and increased consumer spending, with retail and catering sales projected to exceed 1.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12% [9][10]. - Gold consumption has surged, with a year-on-year increase of 13% during the Spring Festival, attributed to traditional holiday demand and rising risk aversion due to international uncertainties [10][11]. - The film market has set a historical record during the Spring Festival, achieving 9.51 billion yuan in box office revenue, a year-on-year increase of 18.12% [11]. Consumption Insights - The "National Subsidy" policy has stimulated consumption, particularly in the gold and film sectors, contributing to a strong start to the year [9]. - The average spending per customer in Hainan's duty-free shopping has increased to 8,707 yuan, reflecting a recovery in consumer spending power and willingness [20][23]. Travel Insights - During the Spring Festival, over 2.3 billion people traveled across regions, with domestic travel reaching 501 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [15][16]. - Long-distance travel via civil aviation and railways has significantly increased, indicating a recovery in travel demand as the economy improves [15][16]. Duty-Free Shopping Insights - Hainan's duty-free shopping during the Spring Festival amounted to 2.094 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.87% year-on-year, but the decline is less severe compared to previous holidays, suggesting a gradual recovery [20][23]. - The upcoming closure of Hainan's free trade port is expected to attract more tourists and boost the duty-free shopping market [23].

Investment Rating - The report rates the electrical equipment industry as "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The lithium battery materials industry is expected to maintain high growth due to recent price increases in iron-lithium materials and strong downstream demand driven by policies such as battery replacement [11][20] - In January, China's sales of new energy vehicles met expectations, with significant growth in Europe as the region prepares to introduce electric vehicle incentive plans [14][70] - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic energy storage bidding, reaching 7.7 GW/60.7 GWh in January, a year-on-year growth of 204%/1088% [20] - The report anticipates that the overall investment in the power grid will exceed 800 billion yuan in 2025, marking a historical high [20] Summary by Sections New Energy Industry Trends - The report discusses the trends in energy metals, battery materials, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic/wind power, energy storage/grid, and carbon markets [8][10] Energy Metals - In January, lithium prices showed a slight rebound, while cobalt prices are expected to decline due to low demand [13] - The report notes that lithium salt plants are gradually resuming operations, which may lead to increased market demand [13][49] Battery and Materials - In December, China's battery sales reached 126.6 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 7.0% and a year-on-year increase of 40.4% [11][55] - The report mentions that recent price increases for iron-lithium materials have been implemented, affecting various suppliers [55] New Energy Vehicles - The report highlights that January saw a significant year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle sales in China, while European markets also performed well [14][86] - The report notes that various automakers are setting ambitious sales targets for the new year, with some aiming for a doubling of sales [13] Photovoltaic/Wind Power - The report indicates that major photovoltaic companies continued to face losses in Q4 2024, while the wind power sector is expected to see significant growth in 2025 [15] Energy Storage/Grid - The report emphasizes the record-high bidding for energy storage in January and anticipates continued high growth in installations [20] Carbon Market - The report assesses the impact of the U.S. re-exiting the Paris Agreement on ESG investments, suggesting limited long-term effects [21]

Investment Rating - The report rates the humanoid robotics industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - Humanoid robot component suppliers are expected to benefit significantly from industry development, with a collaborative model of "independent design and outsourced production" likely to emerge [11][30] - The focus should be on joint modules, axial motors, reducers, and sensors as key investment areas [3][31] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robot Component Suppliers - The main manufacturers hold the "definition rights" for humanoid robot joints, influencing design aspects such as degrees of freedom, joint schemes, and layout [14][30] - The industry is expected to follow a model similar to the automotive sector, where component manufacturers engage deeply in product development [27][30] Analysis of Rotational Joint Solutions - Rotational joints are highlighted as high-value and highly certain investment opportunities, being a significant cost component in humanoid robots [31] - The report identifies three main types of rotational joints: rigid actuators, elastic actuators, and quasi-direct drive actuators, with rigid joints currently being the most prevalent [2][32] Key Technical Insights - High torque is a core requirement for humanoid robot motors, with the current mainstream choice being frameless torque motors [52] - Axial motors are anticipated to see explosive growth due to their higher torque density compared to radial motors [2][52] Investment Recommendations - The humanoid robotics sector is projected to drive substantial growth in the overall industrial automation market, benefiting industry players broadly [3] - Emphasis should be placed on customer relationships and collaboration within the supply chain [3][30]

[Table_Main] 寻找人形机器人的确定性：旋转关节投 资机遇拆解 报告要点 人形机器人零部件供应商有望深度受益于行业发展。在人形机器人的产业链 中，主机厂具备了关节的"定义权"，具体表现为掌握了 3 点：1）人形机器 人自由度设计；2）人形机器人关节方案设计；3）关节布局位置设计。但基于 规模效应和专业化分工，我们认为主机厂进行完全垂直整合的概率不大，"自 主设计、外包生产"将是一种更可能的合作模式。将会有一批人形机器人的零 部件供应商深度受益于行业发展，与主机厂共同成长。 旋转关节具备高价值量和高确定性，是建议优先关注的投资方向。关节模组 是人形机器人成本的重要组成，具备高价值量特点。而目前主机厂的方案均 使用旋转关节，从技术路线角度，旋转关节具备高度确定性。 旋转关节方案包括三类：刚性驱动器、弹性驱动器、准直驱驱动器。其中弹性 关节的引入会导致控制算法复杂，并增加硬件成本，因此产业中使用的较少。 刚性关节方案可以使用大减速比减速器，因此可以有更大的扭矩、更好的精 度，但增加了力传感器导致成本较高，并且耐冲击性差。准直驱方案可以用电 流环做力控，但只能用小减速比减速器，输出扭矩较小。早期准直驱方案主 ...