证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 [Table_Main] 美联储货币政策进入博弈期——美联 储 12 月会议点评 事件描述 美联储在 12 月会议上宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点，利率区 间调降至 3.5%-3.75%。 事件点评 美联储如期降息。美联储 12 月会议宣布降息 25bp，符合市场一致预期。点阵 图显示 2026 年仍将降息一次。给市场的一个"惊喜"在于美联储重启短债购 买。这一操作被鲍威尔定义为"技术性调整"，我们不认为这会改变未来美联 储货币政策的取向，但这也是美联储主动向银行体系注入储备金，会缓解金融 市场的资金面焦虑，直接提振了包括美股和短端美债在内的风险资产情绪。总 体来说，本次美联储会议如期降息，且对于未来的指引不如市场担忧的那样"鹰 派"，对于金融市场利好。 美联储对于未来经济较为乐观。美联储提升了对于未来几年的经济预期，而对 就业的预期变化不大，并且指出当前的就业数据是被高估的，实际就业人数在 下降。在承认就业减少的同时对经济更加乐观，表明美联储官员对于劳动生产 率的上升很有信心。我们认为这来自于 AI 技术的广泛应用带来的劳动生产率 的提升，且已经被纳入了政策考量范畴 ...

价格周期高点退出。这一逻辑在其早期 Voisey's Bay 镍铜矿、缅甸 Monywa 铜矿、蒙古 Oyu Tolgoi 铜金矿等项目的交易中得到充分印证。后期，艾芬豪 将战略重心转向非洲地区，重点推进 Kamoa-Kakula、Kipushi、Platreef 三大 旗舰项目。艾芬豪在转型过程中，并未放弃其勘查基因，而是将其转化为"长 期运营旗舰项目+持续勘查储备资源"的双轮驱动发展战略，以成熟运营项目 保障稳定盈利，通过持续勘查工作储备优质资源以保障增长潜力。目前，公司 仍在非洲、中亚等资源潜力区域持续推进勘查，现有 Western Forelands、 Mokopane Feeder、Chu-Sarysu Copper Basin 等 5 个主要勘查项目，按权 益比例，公司铜资源量 2702 万吨，镍资源量 171 万吨，铂资源量 268 2 万盎 司，钯资源量 2733 万盎司。 艾芬豪的成功得益于其勘查战略、技术创新，以及与市场周期深度协同的资 本运作能力。公司始终聚焦资源富集区域，在资本市场尚未充分关注的阶段 率先启动勘查开发，同时凭借技术创新，实现全链条赋能。资本运作方面，艾 芬豪通过多元化融 ...

2026 年储能重点关注五大变化 报告要点 展望 2026 年，储能行业短期景气度有望延续，长期成长空间依然广阔，建议 重点关注以下五大变化： 变化一：各省电力现货峰谷价差走势 证券研究报告 [Table_ | 行业深度First] 综上，我们认为当前影响行业发展的积极因素多于潜在风险，有理由对 2026 年全球储能行业的增长保持乐观。从装机口径，我们预计 2026 年全球储能新 增装机 388gwh，同比增长 45%；从出货量口径，我们预计 2026 年全球储能 电池出货量 825gwh，同比增长 39%。 电力现货市场峰谷价差是比招标数据更为前瞻的景气度跟踪指标，2026 年应 重点关注。根据 394 号文要求，截至 2025 年底，全国绝大部分省份电力现货 市场已进入长周期/连续结算试运行。各省现货峰谷价差直接反映当地新能源 消纳情况与系统调节需求，未来电力现货市场将成为指挥棒，短期应优先建 设储能还是光伏，将由市场供需与价格机制决定。 变化二：各省储能容量补偿机制推进情况 容量补偿有望成为独立储能电站仅次于现货市场收入之外的第二大收入来 源，其落地进度将对国内储能建设节奏产生重要影响，2026 年应重 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 "十五五"开端的"稳中求进" 事件描述 中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，审议《中 国共产党领导全面依法治国工作条例》。中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。 事件点评 站在"十五五"开端的"稳中求进"。会议重申"稳中求进"总基调，但在"十四五" 与"十五五"交接的节点上，其内涵发生了战略扩容。"稳"的核心逻辑从单纯的 经济增速维稳延伸至国家安全与发展主动权的统筹，特别是要"更好统筹国内 经济工作和国际经贸斗争"，以确保护航国内产业链、供应链的安全。而"进"则 承载了为"十五五"确立新坐标的使命，通过"适度宽松"的政策环境支持技术突 破和产业升级，确保新旧动能转换期间经济不失速。 货币宽松面临"两大约束"，降息或将"谨慎"。尽管货币政策定调转向"适度宽 松"，但我们认为价格型工具的使用将面临掣肘。首先是人民币汇率的硬约束， 在应对"国际经贸斗争"背景下，需防止中美利差倒挂过大引发资本外流；其次 是商业银行净息差的底线约束，需维护金融系统稳定。因此，预计未来央行将 更多依赖降准、买债等"量"的工具，降息路径大概率采取"存款利率先行"的非 对称模式。 财 ...

如何理解与观测中国宏观政策目标？ 报告要点 证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 以高质量发展为主题的九大治理目标体系已取代单一 GDP 指标，成为牵引中 国经济行稳致远的新航标。九个关键维度，相互贯通、有机支撑，共同构成了 中国式现代化的支柱。在这一框架下，宏观政策正从过去偏重数量和速度的粗 放型调控，转向质量效益并重的精准化治理，通过设定如研发强度、全要素生 产率、居民消费率等具体监测指标，动态校准政策工具。我们认为这标志着中 国经济治理模式已彻底告别对房地产与债务驱动的路径依赖，转而通过改革 创新增强内生动力，确保在 2035 年基本实现社会主义现代化目标。 我们通过梳理提炼出九大宏观目标，首先是发展与安全组合，两者组成了宏观 治理的总纲要。其次除了安全侧外，8 项高质量发展目标可以分为两类。第一 类以全要素生产率为核心。经济合理增速是财政、社会力量的保障，是新质生 产力的动力源泉。微观层面，要形成新科技、新消费、新市场的循环，才能将 长期经济增速和新质生产力推向正循环。要形成正向循环，就需要市场规模、 消费能力的支撑。因此强化内需和居民可支配收入的增长至关重要。第二类是 以优化经济产出、可持续发展为目标。将绿色 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The lithium price has shown a strong rebound due to supply constraints and increased demand from the energy storage sector, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rising from 61,300 CNY/ton to 85,700 CNY/ton in Q3 2025, marking an 11.92% increase from the previous quarter [12] - The overall revenue of 12 A-share lithium companies reached 39.718 billion CNY in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.01% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12% [18] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for these companies surged to 5.328 billion CNY in Q3 2025, a significant year-on-year increase of 110% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 65% [21] - The average gross margin for the companies was 24.7%, with a net margin of 13.42%, indicating a positive trend in profitability [29] Market Analysis - The lithium supply remains resilient despite production disruptions in regions like Jiangxi, with Q3 2025 lithium salt production reaching 328,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.9% [14] - Global sales of new energy vehicles reached 5.4 million units in Q3 2025, a 23% increase year-on-year, driving demand for lithium [9] - Lithium salt inventory decreased from 150,000 tons to 130,000 tons in Q3 2025, indicating a trend of destocking in the industry [17] Financial Performance - The average cash ratio for the companies was 0.79, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 38.75%, indicating stable debt repayment capabilities [55] - Capital expenditures for the 12 companies totaled 16.943 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.65% [49] - The four major expenses (sales, management, R&D, and financial costs) totaled 3.26 billion CNY in Q3 2025, with a notable increase in financial expenses [38]

Group 1: Market Transition and Challenges - The banking wealth management industry is transitioning to asset management with a focus on low-risk products, facing challenges from declining interest rates and missed opportunities in higher-risk asset allocation[1] - As of June 30, 2025, the total scale of bank wealth management products reached CNY 30.7 trillion, with a mere 0.5% annual growth rate since 2017[10] - The proportion of low-risk products (R1 and R2) increased from 81.3% to 95.9% from 2020 to mid-2025, indicating a conservative shift in product offerings[15] Group 2: Strategic Directions for Wealth Management Subsidiaries - Wealth management subsidiaries can focus on three strategic directions: serving as tools for bank asset-liability management, transforming into multi-channel asset management companies, and outsourcing non-fixed income asset investments[2][3] - The first strategy emphasizes providing low-risk products to replace deposits, potentially reducing fees to zero to maintain investment returns[1] - The second strategy involves enhancing investment capabilities across various asset classes and expanding distribution channels, which carries risks due to high investment costs and uncertain progress[2] Group 3: Financial Performance and Fee Structures - The average fee rate for wealth management subsidiaries is around 19 basis points, with a median operating cost of CNY 300 million[49] - The break-even point for a small wealth management subsidiary is estimated at approximately CNY 790 billion in managed assets[50] - The management scale of the top ten wealth management subsidiaries accounts for over 60.7% of the total market, indicating a highly concentrated industry[58]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it emphasizes the potential growth and investment opportunities in the AR glasses market. Core Insights - The development of consumer-grade AR glasses has been relatively slow due to the challenge of achieving both lightweight design and affordability. The current trend is towards a "gradual iteration" paradigm, starting with audio glasses, moving to AI glasses, and eventually to AI+AR glasses [2][3]. - The global market for AI smart glasses is projected to reach 1.52 million units in 2024, while traditional AR glasses are expected to sell 500,000 units. The acceptance of "AI+social" product positioning is reflected in the sales growth of Meta's upgraded Ray-Ban Meta glasses, which are expected to reach nearly 3 million units by Q2 2025 [2][3]. - The traditional eyewear market, with annual sales exceeding 1.5 billion units, provides a substantial replacement market for smart glasses. If the AI+AR solution matures, the penetration rate could rise from 0.01% in 2023 to 4.44% by 2030, with the global AR smart glasses market projected to grow from 735 million RMB in 2023 to 118.7 billion RMB by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 106.7% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Turning Point - The XR industry is diversifying, with AR emerging as a new growth engine. The report outlines the historical challenges and commercialization phases of AR technology, highlighting the shift from initial excitement to a recovery growth phase driven by technological advancements [12][16][24]. Competitive Landscape - The competition is evolving from a focus on hardware products to building ecological barriers. Major players like Meta and Google are adopting different strategies, with Meta focusing on AI+AR technology and Google moving towards an open ecosystem model. Domestic companies are categorized into those focusing on rapid hardware iteration and those leveraging their mobile ecosystems for cross-device collaboration [4][5][6]. Industry Chain Analysis - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on core segments of the industry chain that hold significant value. The cost structure of AR glasses is detailed, with optical display units accounting for 43% of the BOM cost, followed by chip-based computing units at 31% [5][6]. Market Outlook - The report predicts a significant growth trajectory for AR glasses, with a gradual increase in sales expected as the technology matures. The AI glasses market is expected to see substantial growth, with sales projected to reach 3.5 million units by 2025, while traditional AR glasses are forecasted to sell only 650,000 units [49][52]. Conclusion - The report concludes that the gradual iteration path taken by AI glasses is more aligned with market demands, providing a foundation for the future development of AR glasses. This approach is expected to facilitate the overcoming of initial technological bottlenecks and accelerate market penetration [34][41][42].

Group 1: Global Political and Economic Context - The global political order is undergoing significant changes, with geopolitical tensions and trade disputes reshaping international trade and industrial division[1] - Key raw materials are increasingly viewed as national security assets, prompting proactive policy measures from governments to secure and control these resources[1] - China's "dual carbon" strategy emphasizes a green transition and energy security, integrating resource, energy, and industrial chain considerations[1] Group 2: Mining Industry Characteristics - The external environment for mining companies is characterized by increased "security" and "policy" focus on critical minerals, with stronger geopolitical attributes in trade, investment, and technology[2] - Supply chains are becoming more regionalized and resilient, with redundancy and compliance becoming core constraints[2] - Green and low-carbon practices, along with ESG considerations, are becoming standard throughout the mining lifecycle, making permits and carbon footprints critical variables for project success[2] Group 3: Strategic Recommendations for Mining Companies - Companies must diversify their resource acquisition and product sales across different regions and customer bases to manage risks in an era of trade restrictions[3] - Vertical integration and full value chain control are rewarded in the new order, encouraging participation across mining, refining, and key component manufacturing[3] - Increased investment in innovation and material substitution is essential, with a focus on R&D in mining and processing technologies[3] Group 4: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand for critical minerals is surging, driven by energy transition, digital expansion, and high-end manufacturing, with lithium and rare earth elements being particularly crucial[32] - According to the International Energy Agency, lithium demand is expected to grow by approximately 90% over the next two decades, while nickel and cobalt demand will increase by 60%-70%[37] - The supply side faces significant pressure due to the mismatch between rapid demand growth and the long lead times required for project development[36]

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The cobalt supply crisis continues, with prices expected to rise to new heights due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) [14][16] - The DRC's new quota management system has significantly reduced annual cobalt export volumes, with a maximum of 96,600 tons allowed for 2026/2027 [14][15] - Global cobalt supply is projected to decrease to 206,000 tons in 2025, with consumption expected to reach 221,000 tons in 2026 and 231,000 tons in 2027, indicating a rigid supply shortage [21][22] Summary by Sections Cobalt Supply and Demand - The DRC's new export quota system has replaced previous export bans, leading to a projected annual export volume of less than 100,000 tons [14][16] - The global cobalt supply is expected to sharply decline to 200,000 tons, with the DRC contributing significantly to this reduction [16][21] - Cobalt consumption is anticipated to maintain growth, with projections of 221,000 tons in 2026 and 231,000 tons in 2027, indicating a persistent supply shortage [21][22] Price Trends - Cobalt product prices have seen a significant increase, with the average CIF price for cobalt intermediates in China rising from $5.95 per pound to $24.15 per pound, a 306% increase [26] - Current prices for cobalt products in China are reported at 402,000 CNY per ton for cobalt metal and 432,000 CNY per ton for cobalt sulfate [26] - The report suggests that as cobalt raw material inventories are consumed, there is potential for further price increases in cobalt products [26] Market Dynamics - The overall non-ferrous metals market continues to show strength, with significant price increases observed in tungsten, lithium, and aluminum [30] - The report highlights that the U.S. Department of Defense is set to restart a $500 million cobalt procurement program, marking a significant move in cobalt supply dynamics [26]