高端制造产业跟踪（3月）： Optimus订单落地，工程机械关税影响可控 五矿证券研究所 高端制造行业 分析师：祁岩 登记编码：S0950523090001 邮箱： qiyan1@wkzq.com.cn 电话：010-56307033 联系人：周越 邮箱： zhouyue@wkzq.com.cn Contents 目录 板块观点 01 02 数据跟踪 03 04 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025/04/07 | 机械设备行业 | | --- | | 投资评级 看好 | 联系人：张雪 邮箱： zhangxue1@wkzq.com.cn 行情回顾 新闻&公告 板块观点 1. 板块观点 人形机器人产业化更进一步，从发展角度看待人形机器人的应用场景。本月特斯拉optimus订单落地，Figure AI正式公布了BotQ人形机器人生产线的设计方案并 规划未来4年内实现10万台产能，人形机器人产业化迈出重要一步。当前市场对人形机器人应用场景有较多争议，我们认为需要从发展的视角去思考这一问题。当 前人形机器人处于产业化初期，缺乏具有价值的落地场景，但这并不是没有需求，而是无法提供有效供给。我们认为大模型技术的发展将快速 ...

高端制造产业跟踪（3月）： Optimus订单落地，工程机械关税影响可控 五矿证券研究所 高端制造行业 分析师：祁岩 登记编码：S0950523090001 邮箱： qiyan1@wkzq.com.cn 电话：010-56307033 联系人：周越 邮箱： zhouyue@wkzq.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025/04/07 | 机械设备行业 | | --- | | 投资评级 看好 | 联系人：张雪 邮箱： zhangxue1@wkzq.com.cn Contents 目录 板块观点 01 02 数据跟踪 03 1. 板块观点 人形机器人产业化更进一步，从发展角度看待人形机器人的应用场景。本月特斯拉optimus订单落地，Figure AI正式公布了BotQ人形机器人生产线的设计方案并 规划未来4年内实现10万台产能，人形机器人产业化迈出重要一步。当前市场对人形机器人应用场景有较多争议，我们认为需要从发展的视角去思考这一问题。当 前人形机器人处于产业化初期，缺乏具有价值的落地场景，但这并不是没有需求，而是无法提供有效供给。我们认为大模型技术的发展将快速弥合需求和供给之 间的鸿沟。未来3-5 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [5] Core Views - The company achieved impressive performance in 2024, with total revenue of 15.74 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.074 billion, up 15% [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 5.124 billion, a 51% increase year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 745 million, up 107% [1] - The CG (Chinagoods) e-commerce platform contributed to revenue growth, generating 340 million in revenue and 165 million in operating profit, a year-on-year increase of 102% [2] - The introduction of the "Yi Pay" service has enhanced the company's digital financial ecosystem, supporting cross-border settlements and trade financing, with a target of 6 billion USD in collections by 2025 [2] - The "Yiwu Deepening Reform Plan" provides policy support for the company's further development in the Yiwu market, with potential new profit growth from import business [2] - The company's export business is thriving, with Yiwu's total import and export volume increasing by 18.2% in 2024, positioning the company to benefit from technological support and favorable policies [3] Financial Summary - The company is expected to maintain a positive performance trend, with projected net profits of 4.116 billion, 5.456 billion, and 6.516 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - The current price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 21 times, 16 times, and 13 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - Key financial metrics for 2024 include total revenue of 15.737 billion and a net profit of 3.074 billion, with growth rates of 39.3% and 14.9% respectively [13]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [6] Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in social retail sales (社零) with a year-on-year growth of 4.0% in January-February 2025, indicating a 4 percentage point increase compared to the previous month, although the growth rate remains weaker compared to the previous year [12][23] - Rural consumption is showing significant growth, outpacing urban areas, with rural retail sales increasing by 4.6% year-on-year [13][23] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the service consumption market, with a 4.9% year-on-year increase in service retail sales, driven by holiday economic effects during the Spring Festival [27][30] - The new energy vehicle market is experiencing rapid growth, with retail sales of passenger cars reaching 1.43 million units in January-February 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.5% [31][32] - E-commerce is thriving, with online retail sales growing by 7.3% year-on-year, supported by policies promoting digital consumption and the integration of online and offline retail [33][34] Summary by Sections Social Retail Sales - In January-February 2025, social retail sales totaled 83,731 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [12] - The retail sales of goods reached 73,939 billion yuan, growing by 3.9% year-on-year, while catering revenue was 4,417 billion yuan, increasing by 3.6% [18][21] - The report notes that the growth in rural areas is becoming a new growth engine for overall consumption [13][23] Service Consumption - The service retail market saw a 4.9% year-on-year increase, with significant contributions from tourism and dining during the Spring Festival [27][30] - The number of domestic travelers exceeded 500 million during the holiday, with a notable increase in spending [30] Low-Carbon Consumption - The new energy vehicle market is highlighted, with a retail penetration rate of 44.9% and a significant increase in sales [31][32] - The report indicates a shift towards green consumption across various sectors, including home appliances and food and beverage [32] E-commerce - E-commerce sales are on the rise, with a 7.3% increase in online retail, driven by enhanced digital experiences and policies supporting consumption upgrades [33][34] - The report notes a significant growth in online travel services, reflecting the expanding potential of the e-commerce market [34]

Impact on U.S. CPI - The implementation of the "reciprocal tariffs" is expected to increase the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) by approximately 3%[2] - In 2024, the total U.S. imports are projected to be $4.1 trillion, with the newly announced tariffs affecting about $2.5 trillion of imports[2] - The average tariff level on the $2.5 trillion of imports is estimated to reach 34%, while the overall tariff impact on total imports could be around 24%[2] Tariff Details - Tariffs on China will reach 54% when combined with previous tariffs, while tariffs on the EU will be set at 20%[8] - Specific tariffs include 34% on China, 31% on Switzerland, 36% on Thailand, and 46% on Vietnam, among others[8] - A basic tariff of 10% will be applied to all countries, exceeding market expectations[8] Negotiation and Actual Rates - The announced tariffs are considered a maximum limit, with potential for negotiation to lower actual rates[3] - If negotiations with key trading partners succeed, the effective tariff rate could drop to around 3%, leading to a minimal CPI impact of approximately 0.5%[3] - Under neutral scenarios, the actual impact on CPI is estimated to be between 1% and 1.8%[3] Market Outlook - The financial market may have already priced in the negative impacts of the tariffs, suggesting limited room for further declines[4] - The likelihood of significant additional tariff increases is low, as current rates have approached the maximum levels previously suggested by Trump[4] - China's potential domestic policies to stimulate demand may mitigate some negative impacts from U.S. tariffs[4]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - In March, sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) exceeded one million units, indicating a gradual recovery in demand [12] - The government has allocated 300 billion yuan for vehicle replacement subsidies, doubling the amount from 2024, which is expected to support overall automotive consumption [12] - The report highlights a significant increase in battery sales, with a total of 90.0 GWh sold in February, marking a 12.0% month-on-month increase and a 140.7% year-on-year increase [10][49] Summary by Sections New Energy Industry Trends - The report discusses the recovery of the new energy vehicle market, with March sales projected to exceed one million units, driven by government policies and consumer demand [12] - The report notes that the battery and materials sector is experiencing growth, with a 12.0% month-on-month increase in battery sales [10] Energy Metals - Lithium production increased by 24.47% month-on-month in March, but prices for lithium carbonate fell by over 2% due to supply pressures [11] - Cobalt prices have seen limited increases due to weak demand, while nickel prices are expected to remain under pressure due to a supply-demand imbalance [11] Battery and Materials - The report highlights the introduction of new technologies in battery production, such as BYD's "flash charging" technology, which significantly reduces charging time [49] - The domestic battery installation volume saw a year-on-year growth of approximately 94% in February [50] Renewable Energy - The report indicates a positive outlook for the solar and wind energy sectors, with production expected to increase in April [13] - The nuclear fusion research is progressing, with significant milestones achieved in temperature breakthroughs [13] Storage and Grid - The report emphasizes the importance of establishing a market mechanism for energy storage, which is expected to enhance the economic viability of storage stations [16] - The construction of ultra-high voltage power lines is highlighted as a key task for the grid in 2025, with several projects expected to commence [16] Key Company Performance - BYD reported a 29.0% increase in total revenue for 2024, with a net profit of 40.25 billion yuan, reflecting a 34.0% year-on-year growth [72] - NIO's revenue for 2024 was 65.73 billion yuan, but it faced a net loss of 22.66 billion yuan, indicating a widening loss compared to the previous year [72]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Positive" for the electrical equipment sector [4] Core Insights - The bankruptcy of Northvolt signifies a substantial failure in the localization of the European electric supply chain, with ongoing price increases in lithium battery materials indicating a persistent "negative feedback" loop [2][12] - The report highlights that the lithium battery industry is undergoing a supply-side clearance, with significant events such as the reduction in lithium concentrate production from Greenbushes starting in January 2024 and Northvolt's bankruptcy in March 2025 [15][19] - The report suggests that despite the current bottoming out of the lithium battery materials sector, there are emerging opportunities for investment, particularly in the iron-lithium segment, which may have already surpassed its capacity utilization bottom due to strong demand [3][20] Summary by Sections Event Description - Northvolt, Europe's largest battery company, announced its bankruptcy in Sweden due to cash exhaustion on March 12, 2025 [1] - Prices for anode materials have increased since early 2025, with reports of price hikes for both standard and high-end lithium iron phosphate products in mid-March [11] Industry Changes - The report notes that Northvolt's bankruptcy is part of a broader trend, with several European battery companies, including Britishvolt and AMTE Power, declaring bankruptcy since 2023 [12] - The report identifies that the price increases for anode and lithium iron phosphate materials are driven by rising costs of petroleum coke and needle coke, alongside strong downstream demand [14] Implications for the Industry - The report emphasizes the need for continuous technological upgrades even at the industry's cyclical bottom, suggesting that domestic lithium battery supply chains in China possess strong competitive advantages in cost, manufacturing, and processes [20] - It is recommended to focus on investment opportunities within the lithium battery sector, particularly as the iron-lithium segment shows signs of recovery and potential for higher margins due to technological advancements [3][20]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The focus on dexterous hands is due to their core role in humanoid robots, representing the highest cost component and having significant room for upgrades [1][15] - Dexterous hands serve as a bridge for humanoid robots to interact with the external world, making them crucial for data collection in AI applications [1][15] - The report identifies five key directions for investment: micro motors, drive control chips, micro lead screws, tendons, and sensors [2][57] Summary by Sections Why Focus on Dexterous Hands - Dexterous hands embody the generalization capability of humanoid robots and are the most expensive component, accounting for approximately 20%-30% of the total cost [1][15] - There is substantial potential for optimization and upgrades, making it a bottleneck in the industry [1][15] - They are essential for AI data loops, acting as the most sensor-rich component of humanoid robots [1][15] Three Main Transmission Schemes - Dexterous hands can be categorized into three transmission types: gear transmission, linkage transmission, and tendon transmission [16][19] - Each type has its advantages and disadvantages, affecting flexibility, complexity, and performance [20][21] Key Directions for Investment - **Micro Motors**: High BOM cost and significant value, with a shift towards hollow cup motors and brushless DC motors [2][58] - **Drive Control Chips**: Increasing demand for high-performance, low-power, and compact chips, with substantial room for domestic replacement [2] - **Micro Lead Screws**: Demand elasticity is expected to rise, with high material requirements and technical barriers [2] - **Tendons**: Current limitations in tendon solutions, with ongoing developments in metal and ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fibers [2] - **Sensors**: Critical for dexterous operation, with advancements in MEMS and flexible sensors expected to increase usage [3][57] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Zhaowei Electromechanical for precision transmission systems, Wuzhou Xinchun for micro lead screws, and Fengcai Technology for motor control chips [4]

Global Macro Environment - Global manufacturing PMI rose to 50.6 in February, up 0.5 percentage points from January, indicating continued expansion in the manufacturing sector[5] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.3, down 0.6 percentage points from January, signaling signs of stagflation[7] - European economies are showing signs of recovery, with the Eurozone manufacturing PMI rising to 47.6 and the ZEW economic sentiment index increasing for four consecutive months[13] Domestic Macro Environment - Industrial production in China showed strong performance with industrial added value growth at 5.9% year-on-year, significantly above the overall economic growth rate[16] - Consumer performance remains weak, with February CPI down 0.7% year-on-year and PPI down 2.2% year-on-year, indicating deflationary pressures[20] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.1% year-on-year in January-February, with manufacturing investment up 9% and infrastructure investment up 9.9%[22] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, particularly in second-hand housing transactions in first-tier cities, while new housing starts fell nearly 30% year-on-year[25] - The trend of "strong supply, weak demand" is expected to stabilize housing prices gradually[25] Policy and Economic Outlook - The Chinese government aims for a GDP growth target of 5% for 2025, reflecting confidence in economic recovery and substantial policy reserves[30] - The government plans to implement the largest fiscal and monetary stimulus measures in recent years, with a budget deficit target of 4% and a total deficit of 5.66 trillion yuan[31] - The Federal Reserve maintains a dovish stance, with expectations for continued interest rate cuts, indicating a prolonged easing cycle[36]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has escalated, leading to significant supply disruptions in tin production, particularly from Alphamin Resources' Bisie mine, which is the third-largest tin mine globally. The mine's output for 2024 was projected at 17,300 tons, accounting for approximately 6% of global tin supply, with plans to increase production to 20,000 tons in 2025. If the mine remains closed until the end of the year, it could reduce global tin supply by 15,000 tons in 2025 [2][9][10] - The ongoing conflict and the failure of peace negotiations between the DRC government and the M23 movement suggest that the situation may remain unresolved for an extended period, further impacting tin supply [2][10] - Domestic tin supply in China is under pressure due to low self-sufficiency, with imports expected to reach 52,000 tons in 2024, of which over 20,000 tons will come from the DRC. The shutdown of Alphamin's operations will exacerbate the tight supply situation, leading to a decline in processing fees for tin concentrate [3][10] - The combination of constrained supply and increasing demand from sectors such as electric vehicles, photovoltaic installations, and a recovering semiconductor cycle indicates a positive outlook for tin prices, with expectations of a continued upward shift in price levels [3][13] Summary by Sections Supply Disruption - The suspension of mining operations at Alphamin's Bisie mine due to conflict in the DRC has led to a significant impact on global tin supply, with potential reductions in output for 2025 [2][9] - The DRC has become China's largest source of tin ore imports, further highlighting the importance of the region in global tin supply chains [3][10] Market Dynamics - The processing fees for tin concentrate in China have been declining, indicating pressure on smelting companies due to supply constraints [3][10] - The anticipated global tin supply-demand gap could reach 20,000 tons this year if Alphamin's operations remain halted, suggesting a tightening market [13] Future Outlook - The long-term outlook for tin prices remains positive, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand from emerging technologies and renewable energy sectors [4][13]