[Table_Main] 铜企五大要素变化趋势与股东回报 ——海外 16 家年报全扫描 事件描述 根据现有已披露年报的 16 家海外铜企（必和必拓、自由港、智利国家铜业、 南方铜业、嘉能可、英美资源、力拓、安托法加斯塔、俄镍、泰克资源、第一 量子、伦丁矿业、淡水河谷、顶石铜业、巴里克黄金、哈铜 KAZ等），我们 对其产量、资源量、储量、成本、战略规划等进行分析。 事件点评 2024 年海外样本企业并购/勘探在路上。根据 S&P，2024 年样本铜企合计资 源量同比+2%，合计储量同比+4%，实现的主要方式为并购或勘探。并购方 面，近 2 年，必和必拓和顶石铜业在并购市场上较为活跃。勘探方面，力拓 2024 年勘探投入同比+9%，其中铜的勘探占 36%，为最大勘探投入部分；安 托法加斯塔也在 2024 年通过棕地开发实现了增储。 2024 年海外头部铜企产量基本满足预期。2024 年矿产铜产量合计为 1204.3 万吨，同比+16.3 万吨，同比增速为 1.4%。从产量指引兑现度来看，2024 年 实际合计产量基本和 2024 年初的产量指引一致。 展望 2025 年样本铜企产量较为稳定，给予铜价基本面支撑。根 ...

2025 年以来，国内钾肥价格持续上涨，春节后涨势加大，据 wind 和盐湖云 声数据，截至 3 月 7 日，国内钾肥现货价格从 2565 元/吨上涨至 3310 元/吨， 涨幅达 29.0%。进口老挝氯化钾价格从去年底 2430 元/吨涨至 3150 元/吨， 涨幅达 29.6%。 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 钾肥价格上涨，新一轮周期将开启？ 事件描述 事件点评 [Table_Author] 分析师 曾俊晖 短期看，国内春耕阶段下钾肥需求旺盛，国内库存低位叠加俄罗斯和白俄罗 斯钾肥巨头减产，全球钾肥价格触底反弹，需求温和复苏，中期价格拐点显 现。长期来看全球钾肥市场维持寡头垄断格局，随着成本上升钾肥价格重心 或逐步上涨，中国钾肥保供形势仍然严峻，老挝凭借资源禀赋、运输距离优势 有望成为国内钾肥新的稳定供应源。 风险提示： 1、海外钾肥新建产能大幅释放； 2、地缘政治变化及全球航运市场波动。 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 登记编码：S0950524100001 | [Table_Invest] | | | --- | --- | | 化工 | | | 评级： | 看好 | | 日期： | 2025.03.12 | ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [7] Core Insights - The global production of base metals shows a divergent trend, with significant challenges in resource continuity for China, particularly in copper, aluminum, and lead [2][14] - The supply of cobalt is heavily concentrated in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which controls 75.86% of global production, while the overall cobalt market is facing a surplus [25] - The report highlights the increasing importance of rare metals such as tungsten, antimony, and rare earths, with China holding a dominant position in their production and reserves [5][29] Summary by Sections Base Metals - Global copper production is projected to reach 23 million tons in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 1.77%, primarily driven by the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia [13] - China's aluminum production is expected to be 43 million tons, accounting for 59.72% of global output, with a growth of 2.86% [13] - Lead production is forecasted to decline by 1.60% to 4.3 million tons, while zinc production is also expected to decrease by 0.83% to 12 million tons [13][18] Precious Metals - Global gold production is anticipated to grow by 1.54% to 3,300 tons, with China and Russia being the main producers [3][24] - Silver production is expected to decline by 1.96% to 25,000 tons due to falling ore grades and strikes affecting supply [3][24] - The platinum group metals are facing significant supply reductions, with global platinum production around 170 tons, primarily from South Africa [3][24] Minor Metals - Cobalt production is set to reach a record high of 290,000 tons in 2024, with the Democratic Republic of Congo contributing the majority [25] - Antimony prices are expected to rise due to export controls and increasing demand from the photovoltaic industry [25] - Lithium production is projected to increase by 17.65% to 240,000 tons, but the market is still facing a surplus [26] Rare Earths - China holds 48.89% of global rare earth reserves, with a production share of 69.23%, indicating a strong position in the global supply chain [29] - The report notes that supply constraints and increasing downstream demand could lead to a rise in rare earth prices [29]

[Table_Main] USGS 2024 年数据洞察：产量、储量 分化，聚焦关键矿产 事件描述 近日，USGS（美国地质调查局）发布 2024 年全球有色金属产量、储量统计 数据。 事件点评 全球基本金属产量分化，中国资源储采比挑战凸显，重点关注铜、铝、锡。根 据 USGS 数据，2024 年全球基本金属产量呈现分化态势。铜同比增长 1.77%， 刚果（金）和印尼贡献主要增量；电解铝产量同比增长 2.86%，中国占比 59.72%；铅矿产量同比下滑 1.60%；锌矿产量因矿端扰动延续下滑趋势，同 比下滑 0.83%；镍/锡产量分别同比下滑 1.33%/1.64%。中国虽在基本金属生 产方面占据重要地位，然而在资源接续上仍有较大的挑战，铜、铝、铅、锌储 采比均显著低于全球均值，如全球铜矿静态储采比约 42.61 年，中国仅有 22.78 年，铝土矿全球静态储采比约 64.44 年，中国为 7.31 年。 全球黄金、白银及铂族金属产量与供应格局呈现显著差异。黄金产量连续两 年稳步增长，同比增长 1.54%，中国、俄罗斯等国家是主要生产国。全球黄 金储量约 6.4 万吨，储采比 19.4 年，中国储量 3100 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the leisure services sector [4]. Core Insights - The government prioritizes boosting consumption as a key task for 2025, implementing special actions to enhance consumer spending through various measures such as income growth for different demographic groups and optimizing regulatory frameworks [9][10]. - The introduction of a special long-term bond worth 300 billion yuan to support the replacement of old consumer goods is expected to significantly enhance consumer spending and improve the overall consumption environment [3][11]. - New consumption growth points are emerging, with sectors like the ice and snow economy, silver economy, platform economy, and low-altitude economy showing rapid development [10][12]. Summary by Sections Government Policy and Economic Impact - The government aims to increase final consumption expenditure's contribution to GDP growth, which reached 44.5% in 2024, driving a 2.2% increase in GDP [9]. - The special consumption-boosting actions will focus on income growth for skilled workers, farmers, and retirees, thereby releasing more consumer potential [9][10]. Consumer Goods Replacement Policy - The 2025 policy for replacing old consumer goods will see a funding increase to 300 billion yuan, a 100% year-on-year growth, with the first batch of 81 billion yuan already allocated [3][11]. - The policy will expand to include more consumer goods, such as microwaves, dishwashers, and smartphones, particularly in the automotive sector for new energy vehicles and compliant fuel vehicles [3][14]. Regional Policy Variations - There are regional differences in the implementation of the replacement policy, with more funding directed towards regions with better implementation results, particularly in the central and western areas [12][14]. - The policy's effectiveness varies by region, with urban areas like Beijing and Shanghai experiencing slower growth in certain consumer goods compared to western regions [12]. Emerging Consumption Trends - New consumption concepts are continuously emerging, with diverse service offerings and innovative consumption scenarios being developed [9][10]. - The platform economy is expected to transform traditional production factors into significant GDP growth drivers, while the low-altitude economy is anticipated to enhance consumption through tourism and logistics [10].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The cancellation of sanctions against Russia may lead to a reshaping of aluminum and nickel trade flows, but the overall impact on global supply is limited [2][42] - The price impact of sanctions on key metals is diminishing, with nickel expected to experience the most volatility [3][46] Summary by Sections Supply Impact - Russian production of key metals has not significantly decreased, with aluminum and nickel exports slightly declining, primarily shifting from Europe to Asia [2] - In 2024, the U.S. and EU are expected to reduce imports of Russian aluminum by 184,000 and 447,000 tons respectively, with the EU planning to completely ban imports by 2026 [2][42] - If sanctions are lifted, Russian aluminum may re-enter the U.S. and EU markets, potentially increasing global aluminum supply slightly [2][42] Price Impact - The sanctions have had a muted effect on metal prices, with market reactions becoming less pronounced over time [3][46] - Short-term price declines may occur if sanctions are lifted, but the extent of the drop is expected to be limited [3][46] Metal-Specific Insights - **Aluminum**: The U.S. and EU have reduced imports, but if sanctions are lifted, Russian aluminum could return to the supply chain, increasing global supply [2][42] - **Nickel**: The U.S. and EU are expected to reduce imports, but the U.S. may increase imports from Russia if sanctions are lifted, leading to a slight increase in global supply [2][42] - **Copper**: The trade relationship with the U.S. is minimal, and sanctions have little impact on copper exports, which primarily go to China and Central Asia [31] - **Potash**: The U.S. may increase imports of Russian potash, while the EU's imports are expected to stabilize [45] - **Rare Earths**: Development is still in early stages, with significant technological and infrastructure challenges limiting short-term supply impacts [40][45]

[Table_Main] 极地黄金锑产量将再次缺失，锑价上涨 基础继续夯实 事件描述 极地黄金锑产量 1.27 万吨，同比大幅下降 1.44 万吨/-53%。3 月 5 日晚，极 地黄金披露 2024 年报，公司全年浮选锑精矿产量含锑 1.27 万吨，主因富锑 矿开采量减少所致，下半年产量降幅更为明显。其中，24H1 产量 0.86 万吨 /24H2 产量 0.41 万吨，浮选精矿锑含量分别为 14.3%/15.3%。 事件点评 [Table_Author] 分析师 李烁 | 登记编码：S0950524120001 | | --- | | ： ：021-61102510 | | ： lis19@w kzq.com.cn | | 分析师 黄梓钊 | | 登记编码：S0950523120001 | | ： ：021-61102510 | | ： huangzizhao@wkzq.com.cn | | [Table_PicQuote] 行业表现 2025/3/5 | | 21% 14% | | 8% 2% | | -5% | 资料来源：Wind，聚源 [Table_DocReport] 相关研究 富锑矿采区开采完毕 ...

[Table_Main] "双供需体系"下，国内锑价景气的草 蛇灰线 事件描述 内外价差持续，国内锑价大幅补涨。2024 年 8 月份中国正式禁止锑锭出口， 国内外锑锭价格走势分化：欧洲锑锭报价七个月的时间涨幅高达 135.4%；春 节过后国内锑锭价格开始大幅补涨。 事件点评 三大因素夯实本轮国内价格快速上涨的坚实基础，锑价有望继续创新高，直 至内外价差再平衡。 国内外价差致国内原料紧张，价差急需修复。1）内外价差大，中国进口原料 难度提升。全球直接面临原料低价销售中国的意愿降低，而海外又没有足够 冶炼能力承接原料盈余的局面；2）价差加速锑冶炼产能开始向东南亚转移。 国内原料紧张带动价格上涨是当前国内外价差持续拉大的背景下的必然结 果，海外冶炼产能逐渐开始放量值得警惕。2024 年 12 月份单月，泰国、日 本、美国、欧盟以上国家合计从缅甸进口锑锭量已经接近 1200 吨，较之前 1- 8 月份平均 268 吨的平均值，增加了 345%。 锑系阻燃剂价格上行，需求表现强劲。2025 年 2 月份开始，国内锑系阻燃材 料报价开始连续上涨，年涨幅达到 30%以上，明显高于锑锭涨幅，体现出阻 燃需求的强劲。1）溴－ ...

高端制造产业跟踪（2月）： AI应用贯穿全年，传统行业+AI的价值或被低估 登记编码：S0950523090001 邮箱： qiyan1@wkzq.com.cn 电话：010-56307033 联系人：周越 邮箱： zhouyue@wkzq.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025/03/07 | 机械设备行业 | | --- | | 投资评级 看好 | 联系人：张雪 邮箱： zhangxue1@wkzq.com.cn Contents 目录 板块观点 01 五矿证券研究所 高端制造行业 分析师：祁岩 02 数据跟踪 03 04 行情回顾 新闻&公告 板块观点 1. 板块观点 本月机器人板块表现优异，板块有望贯穿全年。2月机器人板块有亮眼表现，我们认为板块行情有望贯穿全年。 1）从产业逻辑来看，2025是AI应用元年，具身智能占据产业链关节身位。首先，模型性能的快速增长、开源模型的爆发、算力成本的下降，从供给侧铺平了AI应 用的道路；其次，从商业模式来看，产业急需爆款级别的AI应用完成商业的闭环。AI应用是2025年主线，而具身智能是AI应用重要分支。 2）产业进度来看超预期。本月figure发布h ...

[Table_Main] 极地黄金锑产量将再次缺失，锑价上涨 基础继续夯实 事件描述 极地黄金锑产量 1.27 万吨，同比大幅下降 1.44 万吨/-53%。3 月 5 日晚，极 地黄金披露 2024 年报，公司全年浮选锑精矿产量含锑 1.27 万吨，主因富锑 矿开采量减少所致，下半年产量降幅更为明显。其中，24H1 产量 0.86 万吨 /24H2 产量 0.41 万吨，浮选精矿锑含量分别为 14.3%/15.3%。 事件点评 富锑矿采区开采完毕，锑产量大幅下降。Olimpiada 矿是公司唯一含锑的黄金 矿山，其中 Vostochny 采区第四阶段属于富锑矿段，2024 年开采完毕导致 Olimpiada 浮选精矿产量下降。根据公司公告，24H2 加强 Vostochny 采区第 五阶段开采剥离工作，所以采剥比大幅抬升。 矿端库存和浮选精矿产品库存均大幅消耗。1）24H2 明显矿石处理量高于矿 石开采量，说明公司消耗前期积累库存；2）根据公司公告，24H2 黄金销量 提高，主要销售了之前积累的含锑浮选矿，作为黄金成本抵扣，黄金成本环比 下降 16%达到 355 美元/盎司（24H1 锑抵扣 6 美元/盎司 ...