[Table_Main] [商Tab业le_I贸nve易st] 小商品城（600415.SH）2023 年年报及 2024 年一季报点评 评级： 持有 主营业务持续增长，线上第二曲线渐入佳境 日期： 2024.04.22 事件描述 [分Ta析bl师e_ A何ut晓ho敏r] 登记编码：S0950523110001  事件：公司发布2023年年度报告和2024年一季度报告。公司 2023 ： （021）61392631 年实现总营收113亿元，同比增长 48.3%；毛利率 26.5%，同比增 ： hexiaomin@wkzq.com.cn 加11.2个百分点；净利率23.7%，同比增加 9.25个百分点；归母 净利润26.8亿元，同比增长142.2%；扣除由于减租等因素影响的 [公Ta司bl基e_本Ba数se据] 2024/4/19 非经常性损益后，扣非净利润为 24.7 亿元，同比增长 39.9%。 总股本（万股） 548,433.42 2024Q1 公司实现收入 26.8 亿元，同比增长 26.4%；归母净利润 流通A股/B股(万股) 548,433.42 7.1 亿元，同比减少 41.7%。公司 202 ...

证券研究报告 [|T a行ble业_F深ir度st ] [Table_Main] 氢能爆发，基建先行，储运设备国产化 [电Tab气le_I设nve备st] 评级： 看好 进程几何? 日期： 2024.04.22 报告要点 [分Ta析bl师e_ A蔡ut紫ho豪r] 登记编码：S0950523070002 氢能战略成为共识，政策推动氢能源爆发。2022年全球氢气的消费量约9500 ： caizihao@wkzq.com.cn 万吨。为了实现碳中和目标，预计2050年全球氢气市场将扩张到5~8亿吨。 分析师 张鹏 其中绿氢将从占比不足1%变为主流。各国积极制定氢能战略，其中欧洲制定 登记编码：S0950523070001 2030年2000万吨的需求目标最为激进。 ： 18373169614 氢的储运是现阶段的产业卡点。当前全球氢能绝大部分是灰氢，灰氢的生产 ： zhangpeng1@wkzq.com.cn 和使用在一个地方，仅有少量氢通过管线车等方式运输，所以没有一个成体 [行Ta业bl表e_现Pic Quote] 2024/4/19 系的氢能输送网络。而绿氢的生产主要集中在风光资源充沛的地区，生产和 5% 使 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Positive" for the electrical equipment sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - The commercialization of low-altitude economy is accelerating, with cargo drones and manned eVTOLs expected to be the first to realize this potential. The government is actively promoting the low-altitude economy as a strategic emerging industry, which is anticipated to gradually commercialize due to policy support and advancements in battery technology [2][3]. - High energy density batteries are crucial for the development of low-altitude economy applications, with battery manufacturers actively investing in related products. For instance, CATL has launched a condensed state battery with a maximum single-cell energy density of 500 Wh/kg [2][4]. - The industrialization of semi-solid state batteries is expected to promote the iteration and upgrade of the ternary battery system. The semi-solid state battery, which includes solid electrolytes, is seen as a complement to the current liquid battery system, enhancing safety and matching high energy density systems [2][3]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other governmental bodies, has issued a plan for the innovative application of general aviation equipment from 2024 to 2030, aiming for the commercial application of new types of aviation lithium batteries with energy densities of 400 Wh/kg by 2027 and validation of 500 Wh/kg batteries [1]. - The launch of the first-generation ultra-fast charging solid-state battery by Zhiji Auto, featuring a nano-scale solid electrolyte, marks a significant advancement in battery technology [1]. Industry Insights - The low-altitude economy is characterized by its efficiency and convenience, with ongoing developments in battery technology expected to facilitate its commercialization. Recent achievements include the issuance of the first production license for eVTOLs and the initiation of trial operations for drone delivery routes [2]. - Battery companies are focusing on high energy density and safety features, with notable products like the 320 Wh/kg power battery aimed at the eVTOL market being introduced [2]. Technological Developments - The introduction of semi-solid state batteries, which incorporate solid electrolytes, is anticipated to enhance the safety and performance of high nickel batteries, indicating a promising market for these technologies as they evolve [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [3] Core Viewpoints - In 2023, Chinese copper companies experienced significant mergers and acquisitions, leading to a rapid increase in production, while overseas companies maintained stable operations [2][6] - The average cost of copper production for companies increased by over 15% in 2023 due to various factors including declining ore grades and inflation [2][13] - The report highlights a divergence in strategies between Chinese and overseas copper companies, with Chinese firms being more aggressive in mergers and acquisitions, while overseas firms focus on shareholder returns and operational efficiency [26] Summary by Sections Production and Resources - In 2023, the total equity production of 22 global copper companies was 11.94 million tons, accounting for approximately 53% of the market share [1][6] - Chinese copper companies showed a production increase of 10.2% year-on-year, while overseas companies experienced a decline of 2.8% [7][10] - Major acquisitions in China included Zijin Mining and Minmetals Resources, which added 142.78 thousand tons and 630 thousand tons of resources, respectively [2][6] Financial Performance - The average return on equity (ROE) for top companies like BHP and Southern Copper was around 20%, while Chinese companies had a significantly lower average ROE of 4.3% [3][16] - The average C1 cost for copper production was reported at $1.8 per pound, reflecting a 24% increase year-on-year [13][15] - Chinese companies had an average sales cost of 34,000 yuan per ton, which was a 19% increase compared to the previous year [15] Market Outlook - The 2024 production guidance for 21 copper companies indicates a total expected output of 13.98 million tons, representing a 2.9% increase year-on-year, with Chinese companies expected to contribute the majority of this growth [10][12] - The report anticipates that the long-term outlook for copper prices remains positive due to supply uncertainties and increasing demand [25][26] - The average PE ratio for overseas copper companies is projected to be 18x, while for Chinese companies it is 14x, indicating a valuation gap [21][22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached a new high in March, with Xiaomi's first car launch attracting attention [6][35] - The lithium market shows signs of recovery with production expected to improve, while cobalt prices are supported by strong holding sentiment [5][11] - The demand for new energy vehicles is anticipated to gradually recover in Q2 2024, driven by a new round of price competition [6][25] Summary by Sections 01 New Energy Industry Trend Commentary - The lithium supply is recovering as weather improves, while demand remains cautious due to high prices [5] - The new energy vehicle market saw significant growth in March, primarily due to a price war that boosted penetration rates [6] 02 Industry Dynamics & Data Tracking - **Energy Metals**: Lithium prices are supported by recent auction prices from Australian mines, while cobalt prices are stable due to strong holding sentiment [5][11] - **Battery and Materials**: The retail sales of new energy vehicles in March are expected to reach approximately 750,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 37.1% [5][25] - **New Energy Vehicles**: The market share of new energy vehicles reached 30.1% in February, with significant year-on-year declines in production and sales [25][30] - **Photovoltaic/Wind Power**: The domestic installation and export data for photovoltaic components showed positive trends, indicating a potential industry bottom [7] - **Energy Storage/Grid**: The domestic energy storage installation is expected to exceed expectations in 2024, with various technologies gaining traction [8] - **Electric Power**: The 2024 energy work guidance suggests a target of 250 GW of new power generation capacity, focusing on renewable energy integration [9] Appendix - **Industry Index Performance**: The performance of various industry indices shows fluctuations, with energy metals experiencing a decline [73][75] - **Market Review**: The energy metals and battery sectors have seen varied performance, with some segments under pressure while others show resilience [75][79]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The report discusses the potential for lithium prices to be overly pessimistic, suggesting that the bottom for lithium prices may not be as low as previously thought [1][12] - It highlights that the cost support for lithium carbonate has shifted downwards, with a focus on the cost structures of various mining companies [6][9] - The report emphasizes the long-term trend of rising mining costs due to declining ore grades and the transition from open-pit to underground mining [9][10] Summary by Sections Section 1: Lithium Price Outlook - The report indicates that the cost support for lithium carbonate has historically been around 80,000 RMB, but this is expected to decrease in Q4 2023 [6] - Australian mining companies are projected to see a continued decline in cash costs, with specific companies showing significant reductions in AISC (All-In Sustaining Cost) from Q3 to Q4 2023 [7][8] Section 2: Market Dynamics - Concerns about lithium prices dropping too low stem from historical patterns observed in the 2019-2020 cycle, where prices fell significantly while production continued [12][33] - The report categorizes Australian mining companies into two groups based on their operational strategies during downturns, affecting their production decisions [12][33] Section 3: Supply and Demand Imbalance - The report notes that supply-demand mismatches are inherent in the industry, driven by different release times of production capacities [40] - It points out that global lithium mining companies have begun to reduce capital expenditures in response to falling lithium prices, indicating a shift in investment strategies [42][44] Section 4: Future Investment Trends - The report predicts that lithium mining companies will significantly slow down their investment pace over the next two years due to the rapid decline in lithium prices [44][48] - It also highlights that the quality of capital expenditures in overseas companies may not be high, with some companies relying heavily on outsourcing for production increases [48][50]

Investment Rating - The report rates the lithium mining industry as "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The report summarizes insights from quarterly earnings calls of 13 overseas lithium companies, focusing on their views regarding global prices, supply, demand, and inventory [4] - Companies agree that current prices are at a low point, but there are differing opinions on when a rebound may occur [4] - There is a strong consensus among companies that demand remains robust, while inventory is primarily concentrated in downstream battery sectors [4] Price Analysis - SQM (17% market share) believes that prices will stabilize in the short term and be optimistic in the second half of the year [6] - ALB (16% market share) states that current prices are below marginal cash costs, which could lead to structural shortages in the future [7] - ALTM (4.3% market share) asserts that prices must rise to meet future demand, as current prices are not sustainable [8] Supply Dynamics - SQM indicates that new supply may be delayed due to longer-than-expected commissioning times and that weaker competitors may be affected by current prices [10] - ALB mentions that current lithium prices do not incentivize new greenfield projects, leading to production cuts and project delays [10] - Pilbara (8% market share) is prepared to endure lower prices to rationalize the market [10] Demand Forecast - SQM forecasts a 20% growth in global lithium demand in 2024, with a projected increase of 600,000 tons LCE by 2033 [12] - ALB anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15-20% from 2024 to 2030, with a demand of 1.3 million tons LCE in 2024 [12] - Sayona (1.6% market share) expects a significant increase in battery metal demand to drive the clean energy transition [12] Inventory Insights - ALB reports a gradual decline in industry inventory since early 2023, with battery manufacturers holding higher inventory levels [14] - ALTM notes that extended downtime during the Lunar New Year will help reduce battery-level inventory [14] Additional Observations - The report highlights that in a market with over 20% annual demand growth, total costs are more critical than cash costs [15] - The lithium carbonate market is described as immature, with a need for products not priced by the Chinese market [16] - Companies express concerns about the complexity of supply chains and the need for more secondary or tertiary battery manufacturers to exit the market [21]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 [Table_Main] 小米 SU7 上市点评：小米汽车破圈， [ 汽Tab 车le_I nvest] 评级： 看好 突围 20 万元纯电市场 日期： 2024.04.01 事件描述 [分Ta析bl师e_ A张ut鹏ho r] 登记编码：S0950523070001 2023年3月28日晚，小米汽车首款车型SU7正式上市，共三款配置，定价 ： 18373169614 21.59万元、24.59万元、29.99万元；上市 27分钟订单突破 50000 台，部 ： zhangpeng1@wkzq.com.cn 分用户提前手动锁单，订单有效性预期稳定。 联系人 顾思捷 事件点评 ： 18862755264 ： gusj@wkzq.com.cn 小米 SU7定位中大型纯电轿车，定价略超预期，车型配置具备亮点。小米SU7 轴距3000mm，比Model 3空间大，与极氪001、小鹏P7、智界S7 相当， 联系人 张娜威 比燃油车宝马3系、奔驰 C级略大，21.59万元的起步价低于其他中大型车。 ： 18551983137 车型亮点方面：（1）外观符合大多数消费者审美。SU7提供9种车身颜色 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 [Table_Main] Figur e和英伟达 GTC的背后有什么技 [ 机Tab 械le_I 设nve 备st] 评级： 看好 术新动向？ 日期： 2024.03.22 事件描述 [分Ta析bl师e_ A祁ut岩ho r] 登记编码：S0950523090001 2024年3月1日，Figure官宣与OpenAI、微软达成合作。2024年 3月 13 ： 021-61102527 日，Figure发布视频展示了与OpenAI合作后的进展。 ： qiyan1@wkzq.com.cn 2024年 3月 19日，英伟达举行 GTC2024。本次 GTC 上，NVIDIA 发布了 [行Ta业bl表e_现Pic Quote] 2024/3/21 自己的人形机器人方案。 4% -3% 事件点评 -9% -16% Figure 是谁？Figure 2022 年成立，希望通过通用的人形机器人创造一个更 -22% 好的未来。Figure的成员来自波士顿动力、特斯拉、谷歌 DeepMind等公司。 -29% 2023/3 2023/6 2023/9 2023/12 Figure 这次视频的亮点是什 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 [Table_Main] 硬质合 金及刀具行业点评：中短期钨精 [ 有Tab 色le_I 金nve 属st] 评级： 看好 矿供应紧张，叠加下游旺盛需求，硬质 日期： 2024.03.22 合金企业提价氛围渐浓 [分Ta析bl师e_ A王ut小ho芃r] 登记编码：S0950523050002 事件描述 ： 13401186193 ： wangxiaopeng@wkzq.com.cn 九江金鹭3月14日发布调价函，将自2024年 3月 20 日起对部分硬质合金 分析师 祁岩 类产品的销售价格进行适当调整。与此同时，天工硬质合金于3月 15 日发布 登记编码：S0950523090001 调价函，将自2024年 3月 25日起对公司硬质合金产品进行整体上调。 ： 13661240951 事件点评 ： qiyan1@wkzq.com.cn 钨矿价格走高带动仲钨酸铵和碳化钨粉价格抬升，四因素共振导致中短期钨 联系人 何能锋 矿供应紧张。根据 SMM 数据显示，2024年 3月19日黑钨精矿（≥65%） ： 021-61102510 均价125750元/吨，较2023年年底每吨涨价 325 ...