北交所周报 交投活跃度提升,北交所做市商队伍扩容 2025 年 02 月 15 日 核心观点 分析师 范想想 ☎：010-8092-7663 @: fanxiangxiang _yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130518090002 张智浩 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-02-15 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 1. 【银河北交所】2024 中期策略_新质生产力赋能 北证,关注国央企投资价值 2. 【银河北交所】深化国企改革,迈向高质量发展- 北交所国央企专题报告 3. 【银河北交所】2025 年度策略_并购重组助高质 发展,抓两新两重投资机遇 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 北证 50 指数周涨跌幅为+3.84%。本周,北证 50 涨跌幅为+3.84%。北交 ● 所 264 家上市公司中,有 190 家公司周涨幅为正,并行科技(+70.30%) 涨 幅领先,其次是云创数据(+68.90%)、国子软件(+60.22%)、雅达股份 (+59.59%）、新赣江 (+48.4 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growth potential of the ETF market, particularly in the context of increasing investor interest and market dynamics [1][2][3] - It highlights the strategic positioning of specific companies within the ETF sector, suggesting that they are well-placed to capitalize on emerging trends [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The ETF market is experiencing significant growth, with projections indicating a continued upward trajectory through 2025 [1][2] - The report notes a shift in investor preferences towards ETFs, driven by their flexibility and cost-effectiveness compared to traditional investment vehicles [3][4] Company Analysis - Specific companies are identified as leaders in the ETF space, with strong performance metrics and innovative product offerings [5][6] - The analysis includes a review of financial performance, highlighting key revenue growth figures and market share increases for these companies [7][8] Strategic Recommendations - The report suggests that companies should focus on enhancing their digital platforms to attract a broader investor base [9][10] - It recommends diversifying product offerings to include thematic and niche ETFs, which are gaining popularity among investors [11][12] Future Outlook - The outlook for the ETF market remains positive, with expectations of continued growth driven by technological advancements and changing investor demographics [13][14] - The report anticipates that regulatory changes may further facilitate the growth of the ETF market, providing new opportunities for companies [15]

Monetary Supply and Credit Data - In January 2025, M1 growth was 0.4% (previous value 1.2%), while M2 growth was 7.0% (previous value 7.3%) [1] - New social financing (社融) reached 7.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 586.6 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate of 8.0% (unchanged from the previous month) [1] - Financial institutions issued new RMB loans of 5.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 210 billion yuan year-on-year, with a loan growth rate of 7.5% (previously 7.6%) [1] Factors Influencing Monetary Trends - M1 growth decline may be influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival, with M0 growth rising to 17.2% (previously 13%) [2] - M2 growth decline is attributed to deposits flowing into wealth management products and a slowdown in fiscal deposits into the private sector [2] - New deposits in January totaled 4.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.2 trillion yuan year-on-year, with household deposits increasing by 3.0 trillion yuan and corporate deposits decreasing by 1.3 trillion yuan [2] Social Financing and Loan Performance - Social financing growth was supported mainly by credit and government bond financing, with new social financing increasing by 586.6 billion yuan year-on-year [3] - The new loan amount in January set a historical high, with corporate loans performing better than last year, particularly in medium to long-term loans [3] - Government bond financing netted 693.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 398.6 billion yuan, contributing significantly to social financing [3] Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank maintains a moderately loose monetary policy stance, with potential adjustments in interest rate cuts expected in the second quarter [4] - The annual policy interest rate may be reduced by 30-40 basis points, with a cumulative reduction in the reserve requirement ratio of 100-150 basis points anticipated [5] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8%, with 1.64% seen as a reasonable position [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry [5]. Core Insights - DeepSeek is rapidly gaining popularity globally, significantly impacting the AI industry landscape, with AI applications like AI Agents and edge AI expected to experience explosive growth. As of February 9, DeepSeek has begun operations in Saudi Arabia and has surpassed 30 million daily active users [2][25]. - Major US tech companies are increasing their capital expenditures on infrastructure, reflecting optimism about the future of AI. Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta are projected to reach record capital expenditures in 2024, with Amazon planning to invest up to $100 billion primarily for data center construction [2][17]. - DeepSeek has innovatively reduced the computational power requirements for training and inference, lowering costs to an industry-low level, while still indicating that computational demand will continue to grow in the long term. This low-cost model is expected to drive widespread application adoption, with inference power becoming the primary driver of computational consumption [3][25]. Summary by Sections Global Market Performance - From February 5 to 11, the US tech market experienced a slight pullback, while the A-share computer sector saw a cumulative increase of 15.65%. The S&P 500 index rose by 0.51%, and the NASDAQ composite index fell by 0.05% [12][13]. Industry News Computing Power and End Devices - CoreWeave has launched new instances based on NVIDIA's GB200 NVL72, enhancing AI inference model development. These instances support up to 110,000 GPUs and are designed for next-generation AI applications [19][20]. - NVIDIA's new RTX 50 series graphics cards are optimized for generative AI workloads, providing significant performance improvements and enabling local processing of AI tasks [21][22]. Large Models and Cloud Applications - DeepSeek has emerged as a leading AI application, achieving over 20 million daily active users within 20 days of launch, significantly outpacing competitors like ChatGPT. Its training costs are substantially lower than those of OpenAI, making AI development more accessible [23][24].

Group 1: Macro Economic and Asset Market Performance - The macroeconomic state is categorized into four phases based on the Merrill Lynch investment clock: recovery, overheating, stagflation, and recession, with recommendations for asset allocation in each phase [5][6] - The economic index has slightly decreased compared to the previous month, indicating a need for improvement in economic recovery momentum, while the liquidity index continues to rise and remains in a loose range [6][12] - In January, the A-share market showed a decline, with small-cap stocks outperforming mid and large-cap stocks, and the overall market sentiment remained low due to the upcoming Spring Festival [12][13] Group 2: Recent A-Share Fund Flow Changes - In January 2025, there was a significant improvement in overall active net buying compared to the previous two months, with banks being the only sector showing a positive cumulative net buying amount [24][33] - The financing balance decreased to 1.65 trillion yuan by January 27, 2025, reflecting a reduction in investor positions ahead of the holiday [37] - The net subscription amount for stock ETFs increased to 421.31 billion yuan in January, indicating a recovery in market sentiment driven by policies encouraging long-term capital inflow [43][45] Group 3: Margin Trading Market Changes - As of January 27, 2025, the total margin trading balance was approximately 17,581.38 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 17,487.25 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 5.17% from the previous month [64] - All sectors experienced net repayment in margin trading, with the electronic, computer, and non-bank financial sectors showing the highest net repayment amounts [72] - The number of margin trading ETFs increased significantly, with the China Securities A500 ETF seeing substantial net buying [64][70]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the mechanical equipment industry, but it suggests a focus on specific sectors and companies for investment opportunities in 2025 [24]. Core Insights - The mechanical sector's fund allocation ratio remained stable, but the total market value of holdings continued to decline, with a 10.64% decrease in the total market value of mechanical industry holdings among active equity funds in Q4 2024 [6][9]. - The report highlights a shift in fund flows towards technology growth sectors, with significant increases in holdings for oil and gas equipment, industrial robots, and lithium battery equipment, while traditional sectors like shipbuilding and forklifts saw substantial declines [12][13]. - The report identifies structural growth opportunities in the mechanical sector, with a notable increase in the number of mechanical stocks held by equity funds, indicating a recovery in interest [17]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Mechanical Sector Overview - The total market value of mechanical sector holdings among active equity funds was 1,067.29 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.64% decline from the previous quarter [6]. - The proportion of mechanical sector holdings in the total fund size was 4.11%, showing a slight increase of 0.07 percentage points, indicating a low allocation status [6]. Section 2: Subsector Analysis - The top five subsectors by market value in Q4 2024 were engineering machinery, other specialized machinery, basic components, shipbuilding, and other general machinery, accounting for 66.18% of the total mechanical sector holdings [12]. - Significant increases in holdings were observed in oil and gas equipment (up 80.85%), industrial robots (up 73.25%), and lithium battery equipment (up 48.97%), while declines were noted in shipbuilding and forklifts [12][13]. Section 3: Heavyweight Stocks - A total of 235 mechanical stocks were heavily held by equity funds, with a decrease in the total market value of the top ten mechanical stocks by 13.93% [17]. - New entrants to the top ten heavyweights included Jerry Holdings and Invek, while China Shipbuilding and China Heavy Industry exited the list [17]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors benefiting from policy support, such as infrastructure and real estate chains, as well as cyclical general equipment and new technology sectors like humanoid robots and low-altitude economy [24].

Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy remains moderately accommodative, but the pace of interest rate cuts may change, with a potential rate cut expected in Q2 2024[1] - The central bank aims to maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate, with the current US-China interest rate differential deepening to nearly -300 basis points[1] - The central bank may cumulatively lower the policy interest rate (7-day reverse repo rate) by 30-40 basis points and the 5-year LPR by 40-60 basis points throughout 2025[1] Economic Conditions - The report indicates that China's economy is expected to maintain stable growth in 2025, supported by strong resilience and potential[3] - External factors, including insufficient global economic growth and inflation risks, are significant constraints on current monetary policy[3] - The central bank emphasizes the need for structural monetary policy to focus on technology and consumption, with increased financial support for these areas[3] Market Dynamics - The central bank's net purchase of government bonds in the open market is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan for the year[1] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8%, with 1.64% seen as a reasonable level at this stage[1] - The report highlights the importance of restoring corporate confidence as a slow variable affecting credit expansion[1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector [1] Core Insights - The focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption is expected to be a key task, benefiting bank credit demand [4][7] - Local debt management is set to proceed cautiously, supporting the quality of bank assets [4][17] - Credit resources are expected to further tilt towards the "Five Major Articles," accelerating structural optimization [4][20] - The revitalization of real estate and the implementation of stock asset management are likely to alleviate risks [4][19] - The efforts to mitigate risks in small and medium-sized banks will continue, maintaining the stability of the financial system [4][19] - The issuance of special government bonds to increase capital for major banks is anticipated, accelerating the capital replenishment process [4][19] - Deepening state-owned enterprise reforms will enhance market value management, reshaping bank valuations [4][19] Summary by Sections 1. National Two Sessions Preview: Seven Policy Dimensions from the Banking Perspective - Expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption is expected to be the primary task, positively impacting bank credit [4][7] - Local debt management will be cautiously advanced, providing support for bank asset quality [4][17] - Credit resources will further lean towards the "Five Major Articles," with structural optimization accelerating [4][20] - Real estate revitalization efforts are expected to speed up, potentially reducing risks [4][19] - The risk mitigation efforts for small and medium-sized banks will remain strong, ensuring financial system stability [4][19] - The issuance of special government bonds to bolster major banks is likely to be approved, speeding up capital replenishment [4][19] - The deepening of state-owned enterprise reforms will enhance market value management, reshaping bank valuations [4][19] 2. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption will be a focal point, leading to improved bank credit demand [4][7] - Local debt management, real estate revitalization, and continued risk mitigation for small financial institutions are favorable for bank asset quality [4][19] - Financial support for the "Five Major Articles" will continue to improve, accelerating credit structure optimization [4][20] - Major banks are expected to see capital increases, enhancing credit deployment and risk resistance capabilities [4][19] - Enhanced market value management will reshape bank valuations positively [4][19]

Inflation Data - The January CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year, with core CPI rising to 3.3%, both exceeding market expectations[2] - The non-seasonally adjusted CPI growth rate rose from 2.9% in December to 3.0%, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased from 3.2% to 3.3%[3] - Month-on-month, the CPI accelerated to 0.5%, and the core CPI increased to 0.4%, both stronger than anticipated[2] Food and Energy Prices - Food prices maintained a year-on-year growth rate of 2.5%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, primarily driven by a 15.2% rise in egg prices due to avian influenza[2] - Energy prices increased by 1.9% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to -0.5% from -3.9%[4] Core Goods and Services - The deflation in core goods narrowed to -0.1%, with second-hand cars and medical goods contributing to the month-on-month price increase[4] - Core services saw an acceleration in growth, with a month-on-month increase from 0.3% to 0.5%[4] Housing Costs - Housing costs decreased year-on-year to 4.4% from 4.6%, but month-on-month growth rose to 0.4%[5] - The main components of housing costs, such as rent and owners' equivalent rent, maintained a growth rate of around 0.3%[5] Future Projections - The average CPI for 2025 is projected to rise to 2.6%, with potential risks of exceeding 3% if tariffs are fully implemented[6] - Despite the strong January data, inflation is expected to gradually decline in the first half of 2025, allowing for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[6] Market Reactions - Market expectations for the first interest rate cut in 2025 have shifted from July to September, with only one cut anticipated for the year[6] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 12.4 basis points to 4.619%, reflecting market adjustments to inflation data[6]

行业动态报告 ·建筑材料行业 节后市场恢复偏缓,政策有望带动需求释放 1 月动态报告 2025 年 2 月 11 日 建筑材料 推荐 维持 分析师 贾亚萌 ☎：010-80927680 网: jiayameng_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523060001 2025-2-11 相对沪深 300 表现图 建筑材料(SW) 沪深300 40% 20% -20% 资料来源:中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 【银河建材】12 月行业动态报告_市场逐步收尾, 静待政策提振需求复苏 【银河建材】11 月行业动态报告_政策有望继续发 力，供需结构逐步优化 【银河建材】10 月行业动态报告_三季报业绩承压, 供给侧迎积极信号 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 水泥:1月价格走低,春季复工及供应偏紧支撑价格回暖。受气温较低及春 ● 节假期临近影响,下游施工进度放缓,对材料端需求拉动作用不明显。春季复 工后下游施工将逐步恢复,在 2025年地方政府债券及超长期特别国债对重大 项目建设的大力支持下,基建投资有望进一步 ...