每日晨报 2025年1月6日 银河观点集萃 要闻 一线城市楼市成交齐创新高 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 宏观:聚焦汇率、房价与信用 -- 货币政策委员会 2024年第四季度例会解读。 ● 货币政策取向适度宽松,提升 2025年全年降息降准幅度的预期。本次会议明 确提出"建议加大货币政策调控强度",并具体提到"根据国内外经济金融形 势和金融市场运行情况,择机降准降息"。我们梳理了 1990 年以来历年中央 经济工作会议中对货币政策的表述,中国货币政策取向按照从紧到松分为四类 "从紧"、"适度从紧"、"稳健"、"适度宽松"。"适度宽松"是最宽松 的取向。展望 2025 年，货币政策宽松的三个路径包括降准、降息、央行公开 市场国债净买入。我们提高对于中国 2025年降息、降准的幅度预测。2025年 全年可能累计调降政策利率（7 天逆回购利率）40-60BP，引导 5 年期 LPR ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the mechanical equipment industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - The mechanical equipment industry is expected to benefit from policy-driven recovery in domestic demand, with a focus on infrastructure and real estate chains as key investment themes for 2025 [6][9]. - Key investment keywords for 2025 include engineering machinery, humanoid robots, and self-controllable technologies [6][32]. - The report highlights the importance of high-tech investments and equipment upgrades to drive manufacturing investment growth amid external uncertainties [6][32]. Summary by Sections 2024 Review & 2025 Outlook - The mechanical equipment sector's performance is closely tied to the macroeconomic environment, with manufacturing investment being a significant driver [14][33]. - In 2024, manufacturing investment growth was primarily driven by exports, while domestic demand recovery was weak [25][34]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain Recovery - Engineering machinery is expected to see a rebound in domestic demand, supported by policy measures aimed at stimulating infrastructure investment [6][9]. - The urban rail signaling system is anticipated to benefit from new demand and maintenance needs as the economy recovers [6][9]. General Equipment Recovery - The report suggests that general equipment, including industrial control devices and machine tools, is likely to experience a cyclical recovery as manufacturing investment rebounds [6][9]. - The industrial gas sector is highlighted as a resilient option, with potential for growth as the economy recovers [6][9]. New Energy Vehicle Chain - The lithium battery equipment sector is poised for a new expansion cycle, with improving profitability for equipment manufacturers [6][9]. New Quality Productivity - Humanoid robots are identified as a significant growth area, with the industry moving towards mass production [6][9]. - The low-altitude economy is also highlighted as a new emerging industry with substantial growth potential [6][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on engineering machinery and urban rail signaling systems, as well as general equipment that benefits from cyclical recovery [9][32]. - Key companies to watch include Xugong Machinery, Xianlead Intelligent, and Huichuan Technology, among others [8][9].

北交所周报 北证 50 阶段性回调,新股星图测控关注高 2025 年 01月 04 日 核心观点 分析师 范想想 ☎：010-8092-7663 @: fanxiangxiang _yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130518090002 张智浩 网: zhangzhihao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524100001 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-01-04 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 1. 【银河北交所】2024 中期策略_新质生产力赋能 北证,关注国央企投资价值 2. 【银河北交所】深化国企改革,迈向高质量发展- 北交所国央企专题报告 3. 【银河北交所】2025 年度策略_并购重组助高质 发展,抓两新两重投资机遇 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 北交所周报 北交所动态及展望 (一) 本周市场回顾 北交所整体交易活跃度连续四周回落,日均成交额为 133.50 亿元。本周,北交所日均成交额 约为 133.50 亿元,较上周的 140.86 亿元有所回落。北交所本周整体成交额为 ...

策略研究 · 专题研究 分析师 杨超 ☎：010-8092-7696 極: yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码: S0130522030004 相关研究 2024-12-31, 2024 年全球大类资产投资展望:变 局·择机 2024-12-27, 2025年港股投资展望:潮涌·博弈 2024-12-26, 2025年 A 股市场投资展望: 重构·聚势 2024-12-19,美联储 12 月议息会议点评报告:美联 储传递节奏更换的渐进式降息信号 2024-12-13,中央经济工作会议对投资的启示 2024-12-09，12 月中央政治局会议解读：超常规对 市场意味着什么? 2024-11-20, 央国企引领专题: 央国企改革助推市场 估值结构重塑 2024-11-19，初窥 2025：以确定性拥抱不确定性 2024-11-08,人大常委会后如何看市场? 2024-11-08,美联储 11 月议息会议点评报告:特朗 普当选后美联储降息或趋于谨慎 2024-11-06，美国大选尘埃落定对资本市场影响几 何? 2024-11-03,A 股 2024年三季报业绩点评:金融行 业 ...

12 月央国企 ESG 整合策略超额收益显著 ——ESG 与央国企月度报告（2024 年 12 月） 2024 年 12 月 31 日 ESG 与央国企月度报告 核心观点 市值管理政策密集出台，明确规范和指引。2024 年 12 月 17 日，国务院国 资委近日印发了《关于改进和加强中央企业控股上市公司市值管理工作的若 干意见》（以下简称《意见》）。《意见》共分九部分，对上市公司提升质 量和各类市值管理工具使用做出了更加明确的规范和指引。2024 年 12 月 23 日至 24 日，国务院国资委召开中央企业负责人会议，对央国企经营指标体系 及考核做出了进一步部署。关注十大要点：1. 着力提高公司质量，强化责任 人市值管理考核 2. 并购重组聚焦产业链安全、专业化发展和科技创新 3. 强 化公司治理，维护股东权益 4. 提高信息披露质量，完善 ESG 管理体系 5. 提 高央企上市公司投资者关系管理主动性 6. 鼓励就利润分配预案征集投资者 意见，提高现金分红比例 7. 建立常态化股票回购增持机制，鼓励自愿不减 持 8. 高度重视控股上市公司破净问题 9. 健全市值管理工作制度机制 10. 严 守依法合规底线。 ...

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网: yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 研究助理:王雪莹 策略研究 · 周度报告 估值调整已为"春季躁动"行情做好准备 A 股投资策略周报 2025 年 01 月 05 日 核心观点: 分析师 杨超 ☎: 010-8092-7696 相关研究 2024-12-31, 2025 年全球大类资产投资展望：变 局·择机 2024-12-27，2025年港股投资展望：潮涌·博弈 2024-12-26,2025年 A 股市场投资展望:重构·聚势 2024-11-20,央国企引领专题:央国企改革助推市场 估值结构重塑 2024-11-08，人大常委会后如何看市场? 2024-11-08，特朗普当选后美联储降息或趋于谨慎 2024-11-06，美国大选尘埃落定对资本市场影响几 何? 2024-11-03, 金融行业带动 A 股盈利修复 -- A 股 2024 年三季报业绩点评 2024-10-29, 美国大选交易策略: "特朗普交易"VS " "哈里斯交易" 2024-10-28,双创板块热度上升,电力设备加仓显著 -- 2024Q3 公募基金持仓分析 ...

Core Insights - The report analyzes the investment value of the Hang Seng Stock Connect High Dividend Low Volatility Index, which emphasizes low volatility and high dividend characteristics [2][8] - The index consists of 50 constituent stocks, with a significant representation of state-owned enterprises, indicating a potential benefit from enhanced state-owned enterprise market value management [9][14] - The index's dividend yield as of December 31, 2024, is 6.71%, which is higher than the Hang Seng Index (3.85%) and the CSI 300 (2.97%) [16][24] Group 1: Index Characteristics - The Hang Seng Stock Connect High Dividend Low Volatility Index is designed to reflect the overall performance of high dividend and low volatility securities in the Hong Kong stock market [8] - The index includes stocks with a continuous three-year dividend record, focusing on traditional high-dividend industries [14][16] - The average market capitalization of the constituent stocks is approximately HKD 320 billion, with 54% of the companies having a market cap greater than HKD 100 billion [9][24] Group 2: Reasons for Selection - **High Dividend**: The index provides stable cash flow through high dividend rates, which are particularly attractive in a low-interest-rate environment [14][16] - **Low Valuation**: As of December 31, 2024, the index's price-to-earnings ratio is 5.98 and the price-to-book ratio is 0.52, indicating attractive valuation levels [24][21] - **Low Volatility**: The index has demonstrated strong defensive characteristics, outperforming the Hang Seng Index during market downturns [27][30] Group 3: Fund Perspective - The report highlights the achievements of the招商基金 (China Merchants Fund), which has received multiple awards for its performance and social responsibility [35] - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF tracks the index, offering investors a means to gain exposure to high dividend, low volatility stocks while providing monthly dividends [37][39] - The ETF is positioned as a cost-effective option for dividend asset allocation, supported by government policies encouraging corporate dividends [39]

宏观动态报告 聚焦汇率、房价与信用 货币政策委员会 2024 年第四季度例会解读 核心观点 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 网: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 詹璐 ☎：0755-8345-3719 z: zhanlu @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522110001 风险提示 1. 货币政策理解不到位的风险 2. 央行货币政策超预期的风险 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2025年1月3日 12 月 27 日,中国人民银行货币政策委员会召开 2024 年第四季度例会。 ● 货币政策取向从稳健转向适度宽松,逆周期调控强度将加大。本次例会与 上个季度相比边际变化主要聚焦汇率、房价与信用。 汇率:新增三个"坚决",强调保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本 0 稳定。本次例会新增强调"增强外汇市场韧性,稳定市场预期,加强市场管 理",意在引导市场预期。新增三个"坚决",包括"坚决对扰乱市场秩序行 为进行处置"、"坚 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the construction industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The construction industry is experiencing a slight decline in business activity, with the business activity index at 50.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [4][10] - Fixed asset investment growth is slowing, while broad infrastructure investment is accelerating, with a growth rate of 9.39% for the first 11 months of 2024 [4][45] - Real estate sales are continuing to decline, but the rate of decline is narrowing, indicating potential stabilization in the market [4][60] - The central enterprises in the construction industry are expected to benefit from enhanced market value management policies, which aim to improve corporate governance and investor returns [4][67] Summary by Sections 1. Construction Industry Activity - The construction industry's business activity index is at 50.4%, indicating a slight decline [4][10] - The new orders index remains stable at 43.5%, while the input prices index has decreased by 7.2 percentage points to 48.0% [4][10] 2. Fixed Asset Investment - From January to November 2024, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 465,839 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3% [4][26] - Private fixed asset investment decreased by 0.4%, while infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water supply) grew by 4.2% [4][26] 3. Infrastructure and Real Estate Investment - Broad infrastructure investment growth is at 9.39%, while narrow infrastructure investment growth is at 4.2% [4][45] - Real estate development investment totaled 93,634 billion yuan, down 10.4% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline in sales area to 86,118 million square meters, down 14.3% [4][60] 4. Market Value Management Policies - Recent policies from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) emphasize improving the market value performance of central enterprises [4][67] - The report highlights a trend of increasing mergers and acquisitions in the construction sector, with a notable 5% share of central enterprise M&A cases from 2020 to 2023 [4][67] 5. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on state-owned enterprises with low valuations and high dividends, as well as international engineering companies with high growth [4][67]