Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Sany Renewable Energy (688349 SH) [1] Core Views - Sany Renewable Energy has rapidly grown its market share in the wind turbine sector, ranking 4th in the domestic onshore wind market with a 10 1% share in 2023 [2] - The company's "Dual Sea" strategy (offshore and overseas markets) is expected to drive future growth, with overseas revenue reaching 310 million yuan in 2023, a 38,836% YoY increase [2] - Sany Renewable Energy's cost advantages stem from its dual-fed technology, transformer-on-tower design, and self-developed core components [2] - The company's power station development business is becoming a second growth curve, with a gross margin consistently above 70% [2] Company Development and Performance - Sany Renewable Energy's wind turbine sales capacity grew from 3 2GW in 2021 to 7 24GW in 2023, with a CAGR of 33 6% [2] - In 2024H1, the company achieved 3 3GW of domestic onshore wind turbine sales, a 121% YoY increase [2] - The company's revenue and net profit for 2024Q1-3 were 9 07 billion yuan and 690 million yuan, respectively, with a 21% YoY increase in revenue [2] - Sany Renewable Energy's gross margin for 2024Q1-3 was 15 5%, higher than industry average [2] Wind Power Industry Outlook - Domestic onshore and offshore wind installations are expected to reach 90-100GW and 15-18GW respectively in 2025, with YoY growth of 18 8% and 83 3% [2] - The wind power industry is expected to maintain rapid growth during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, driven by new energy installation demand and structural improvements [2] - The industry's concentration is high, with CR5 reaching 73 6% in 2023 [86] - Wind turbine prices are expected to stabilize, with limited room for further declines in offshore wind turbine prices [89] Cost Advantages - Sany Renewable Energy's cost advantages come from its dual-fed technology, transformer-on-tower design, and self-developed core components [2] - The company's gross margin for 2024Q1-3 was 15 5%, higher than industry average [2] - Sany Renewable Energy's production, operation, and supply chain are fully digitalized, further enhancing cost efficiency [140] Dual Sea Strategy - Overseas revenue reached 310 million yuan in 2023, with a gross margin of 22 07%, 5 25 percentage points higher than domestic business [2] - The company has won multiple projects in India, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East, and is accelerating overseas capacity construction [2] - Sany Renewable Energy has launched 8 5-16MW offshore wind products and is expected to secure orders in northern China [2] Power Station Development - Sany Renewable Energy's power station business has a gross margin consistently above 70%, contributing significantly to profits [2] - As of 2024H1, the company's under-construction scale exceeded 2GW, with power generation revenue reaching 128 million yuan and investment income of 442 million yuan [2] - The company adopts a "rolling development" strategy for power station operations, continuously developing new projects while selling mature ones [155] Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits of 2 051 billion yuan, 2 195 billion yuan, and 2 738 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2] - EPS is projected to be 1 67 yuan, 1 79 yuan, and 2 23 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2] - The PE ratio is expected to be 17 7x, 16 5x, and 13 2x for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2]

每日晨报 2025 年 1 月 3 日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网: zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 12 月财新制造业 PMI 50.5 2025 年展望:需求温和改善背景下关注行业结构性机会。若 2025 年宏观经济回暖叠加相 关消费刺激政策落地,有望推动需求端温和改善,建议持续关注 C 端具备中长期产业逻辑的板 块,同时预计顺周期属性较强+竞争格局较好的板块亦受益。与市场观点不同,我们认为除了经 济周期波动之外,人口结构变化与下游渠道变革将孕育诸多新的机会,这些线索将在 2025年进 一步显现。 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 食饮：拨云见月，孕育新机——食品饮料行业 2025年投资策略。2025 年展望： ● 需求温和改善背景下关注行业结构性机会。若 2025 年宏观经济回暖叠加相关 消费刺激政策落地,有望推动需求端温和改善,建议持续关注 C 端具备中长 期产业逻辑的板块,同时预计顺周期属性较强+竞争格局较好 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gree Electric Appliances (stock code: 000651) [3][6][10] Core Views - The company is expected to continue its high dividend payout, with a mid-term dividend rate of 45% based on a net profit of 12.38 billion yuan for the first half of 2024 [6] - Gree Electric Appliances is positioned as a leader in the white goods sector, benefiting from a favorable air conditioning market environment and expected to achieve significant revenue growth [6][10] - The report forecasts Gree's net profit for 2024-2026 to be 32.78 billion, 36.15 billion, and 38.79 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 5.85, 6.45, and 6.92 yuan [6][10] Financial Forecast Summary Revenue and Profitability - **Revenue Forecast (Million Yuan)**: - 2023A: 205,018.12 - 2024E: 235,525.00 (growth rate: 14.88%) - 2025E: 252,015.00 (growth rate: 7.00%) - 2026E: 266,313.00 (growth rate: 5.67%) [3][9] - **Net Profit Forecast (Million Yuan)**: - 2023A: 29,017.39 - 2024E: 32,779.41 (growth rate: 12.96%) - 2025E: 36,146.92 (growth rate: 10.27%) - 2026E: 38,787.66 (growth rate: 7.31%) [3][9] Earnings Per Share (EPS) and Valuation - **EPS Forecast (Yuan)**: - 2023A: 5.18 - 2024E: 5.85 - 2025E: 6.45 - 2026E: 6.92 [3][9] - **Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio**: - 2024E: 7.77 - 2025E: 7.04 - 2026E: 6.56 [3][9] Dividend Policy - The company has a historical dividend payout rate that has varied, with a notable 45% payout for the first half of 2024, and a commitment to maintain a minimum of 2 yuan per share or 50% of net profit for the years 2022-2024 [6][10]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic indicators such as GDP growth and inflation rates to assess market conditions and investment opportunities [19][16][17] - It highlights the projected GDP growth rates for the years 2024 to 2027, indicating a gradual decline from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.8% by 2027 [19] - The report also discusses the expected trends in PCE inflation, forecasting a decrease from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.0% by 2027, suggesting a stabilizing inflation environment [19] Economic Indicators - The report provides detailed projections for GDP growth, with estimates of 2.5% for 2024, 2.1% for 2025, and further declines in subsequent years [19] - It outlines the expected PCE inflation rates, with a forecast of 2.4% in 2024, gradually decreasing to 2.0% by 2027 [19] - The report notes that core inflation measures are anticipated to remain stable, indicating a controlled inflation environment [16][19] Industry Analysis - The analysis indicates that sectors sensitive to economic cycles may experience varying impacts based on the projected GDP growth rates [19] - The report suggests that consumer spending may be influenced by inflation trends, affecting retail and service industries [19] - It highlights the importance of adapting investment strategies in response to changing economic conditions and inflation expectations [19][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the public utility industry [65]. Core Insights - The report highlights the narrowing decline in hydropower generation and the clear targets for wind and nuclear power installations by 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the energy sector [55][57]. - It emphasizes the expected increase in renewable energy installations, with a projected addition of 200 million kilowatts of wind and solar power by 2025, which is anticipated to alleviate consumption pressure [56][58]. - The report suggests a short-term positive outlook for thermal power due to improving generation volumes and policy catalysts, while long-term prospects remain strong for hydropower and nuclear power due to their stable performance and strong dividend capabilities [58]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry News - The report discusses the recent trends in the carbon trading market and the overall electricity market performance, noting a 6% year-on-year increase in electricity trading volume in November [70]. 2. Electricity Industry Data - In November, the total industrial power generation was 749.5 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, while hydropower generation saw a significant narrowing of its decline [15][55]. - The report indicates that as of November, the cumulative installed capacity of wind and solar power reached approximately 492.18 GW and 818.33 GW, respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 19.2% and 46.7% [106]. 3. Hydropower Generation - The report notes that the decline in hydropower generation has significantly narrowed, with November's hydropower generation showing a decrease of only 1.9% compared to the previous year, supported by favorable water storage conditions [15][55]. 4. Wind and Nuclear Power Installation Goals - The report outlines that by the end of 2025, the operational capacity of nuclear power is expected to reach approximately 65 million kilowatts, with an annual average increase of 3.02 million kilowatts during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [57][58]. - It also mentions that the government aims to approve a significant number of key power interconnection projects to enhance the transmission capacity of renewable energy [56]. 5. Investment Recommendations and Stock Pool - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong performance and dividend capabilities in the hydropower and nuclear sectors, while also identifying specific stocks such as Huaneng International, Waneng Power, and China General Nuclear Power as potential investment opportunities [58][44].

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in the electric power equipment and new energy sector, including Dongfang Cable, Sunshine Power, and CATL, among others [18][19][21]. Core Insights - The electric power equipment and new energy sector is experiencing significant fluctuations, with a focus on high growth potential in energy storage and wind power, while solar energy is expected to rebound in the second half of 2025 [5][6][7][16]. - The report highlights the strong demand for lithium batteries driven by new energy vehicles and energy storage, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37% from 2023 to 2030 [6][17]. - The wind power sector is expected to see substantial growth, with projected installations of 90-100 GW for onshore and 15-18 GW for offshore wind in 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 18.8% and 83.3%, respectively [16][33]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The electric power equipment and new energy index has shown a year-to-date increase of 9.7% as of December 27, 2024, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [24]. - The report notes that the wind power sector is benefiting from increased bidding activity, with a total of 119.1 GW of bids recorded in the first three quarters of 2024, a 93% increase year-on-year [52]. Energy Storage - The energy storage market remains robust, with a focus on Power Conversion Systems (PCS) expected to benefit from global market opportunities [6][16]. - The report emphasizes the emergence of long-duration and grid-forming energy storage solutions as key growth areas [6]. Lithium Batteries - The demand for lithium batteries is supported by three main factors: the push for consumer spending, policy-driven growth in new energy vehicles, and the expansion of energy storage solutions [17][21]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the materials sector, particularly for battery components, as the industry begins to rebound [17]. Solar Energy - The solar energy sector is expected to experience a rebound in the second half of 2025, driven by improved demand and supply chain adjustments [7][16]. - The report highlights the importance of high-quality development and collaboration within the solar industry to sustain growth [7]. Wind Power - The report forecasts a strong growth trajectory for wind power installations, with significant contributions from both onshore and offshore projects [16][33]. - The bidding activity for wind power projects is expected to exceed 150 GW in 2024, supporting high installation growth in 2025 [52]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: improving supply-demand dynamics, the acceleration of new technologies, and opportunities in international markets [17][21]. - Recommended stocks include leading companies in the sector such as Goldwind Technology, Dongfang Cable, and CATL, among others [17][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the beer industry, expecting a recovery in consumption and recommending stocks such as Qingdao Beer, Yanjing Beer, and China Resources Beer [5][36]. Core Insights - The beer industry is anticipated to see a gradual improvement in consumption due to the issuance of dining vouchers, which is expected to boost the restaurant sector and subsequently beer sales [4][5]. - The trend of consumption upgrading continues, with the price segment of industrial beer priced between 6-10 yuan showing resilience [4][15]. - Raw material costs for beer are expected to remain stable in 2025, with barley prices returning to pre-2020 levels and packaging material costs stabilizing despite fluctuations in aluminum and corrugated paper prices [5][32]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The beer retail sales experienced a slight decline during the off-season months of October and November, but the overall consumption upgrade trend remains intact [4][15]. - The report highlights the impact of dining vouchers on improving the restaurant industry's performance, which is likely to enhance beer consumption [5][36]. Cost Analysis - Barley import prices have stabilized, and beer companies typically lock in prices for the following year at the end of the current year, suggesting a stable cost outlook for 2025 [32]. - Packaging material costs are expected to remain stable, with aluminum prices decreasing and glass prices fluctuating at low levels [32]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific companies within the beer sector, including Qingdao Beer, Yanjing Beer, and China Resources Beer, as potential investment opportunities [5][36].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for key companies in the social services sector, including Xueda Education, Trip.com Group, Tongcheng Travel, and Santai Cableway [7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of digitalization and internationalization in the OTA and local life services sectors, predicting continued growth for platforms like Trip.com, Meituan, and Tongcheng due to increasing online booking rates and improved competitive dynamics [2]. - It highlights the need for companies to adapt to changing consumer demands and market conditions, particularly in the automotive service and retail sectors, suggesting a focus on innovative business models and supply chain improvements [6]. - The report outlines a positive outlook for 2025, anticipating a stabilization in demand and a shift towards supply-side innovations, driven by new technologies and changing consumer demographics [11]. Summary by Sections 2024 Summary: Imbalance and Restructuring - The report notes a rationalization in consumer spending, with retail sales growth stabilizing around 3.3%, a significant decline from the previous year's high growth [34]. - It discusses the shift of tourism consumption towards online platforms, with OTA penetration rates significantly increasing, as evidenced by Trip.com and Tongcheng's revenue recovery exceeding pre-pandemic levels [36][49]. - The report identifies a supply-demand imbalance in the hotel and airline sectors, leading to downward pressure on prices and profitability [53]. 2025 Outlook: Breaking Through and Restructuring - The report anticipates a rise in service consumption, supported by government policies aimed at stimulating demand in various sectors, including household appliances and automobiles [58]. - It emphasizes the role of service consumption in driving domestic demand, highlighting its sustainability compared to durable goods consumption [63]. - The report suggests that the service sector will continue to absorb employment and drive income growth, further supporting consumer spending [63]. Education & Human Resources - The report identifies growth opportunities in the K12 education sector, particularly with advancements in AI and education technology [60]. - It notes that the human resources sector is expected to rebound in line with macroeconomic recovery, benefiting from improved employment conditions [60]. Duty-Free and Chain Services - The report indicates that the duty-free sector is awaiting demand stabilization, while chain services are expected to see marginal improvements as consumer preferences evolve [60]. Travel and Tourism - The report predicts stable demand in the travel sector, with opportunities for growth in diversified tourism offerings and OTA business models [60].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the communication industry, highlighting its potential for high growth and favorable market conditions [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The communication industry is experiencing a recovery in performance, driven by the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and infrastructure investments, with a notable increase in transaction volumes and valuations [2][3]. - Operators are seen as undervalued with high growth potential, benefiting from new infrastructure developments and increasing dividend payouts [3][4]. - The light communication sector is expected to see significant profit margin improvements due to rapid iterations of high-speed optical modules, with a projected high growth phase in 2025 [3][4]. - The satellite internet segment is crucial for the transition from 5G to 6G, with increasing demand for low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites expected to drive market optimism [3][4]. - Quantum technology is anticipated to grow significantly, supported by government policies and market demand, with the quantum communication market expected to expand rapidly [3][4]. Summary by Sections Operators - Operators are positioned as key players benefiting from new infrastructure developments, with a focus on enhancing shareholder returns through increased dividends [3][4]. - The financial performance of major operators remains strong, with steady revenue growth and improved cash flow [3][4]. Light Communication - The light communication industry is set for a phase of high growth, driven by technological advancements and increasing demand for high-speed data transmission [3][4]. - The market for optical modules is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size of approximately $2.65 billion in 2024 and $6.5 billion by 2029 [3][4]. Satellite Internet - The satellite internet sector is gaining traction, with significant investments and policy support expected to accelerate its development [3][4]. - The number of LEO satellites is projected to increase substantially, enhancing global connectivity and communication capabilities [3][4]. Quantum Technology - The quantum technology sector is poised for rapid growth, with increasing applications in various fields and strong government backing [3][4]. - The quantum communication market is expected to reach a scale of over 80 billion yuan, with significant potential for future expansion [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future performance [78][79]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a key beneficiary of China's Western Development strategy, with significant potential for resource integration in the western region. The main asset, Yulong Copper Mine, is expected to drive revenue growth through capacity expansion. Additionally, previously overlooked iron ore assets are anticipated to recover profitability amid improving domestic economic conditions, presenting substantial profit and valuation recovery potential. The current valuation is relatively low compared to peers, and the company boasts a leading dividend level, which is expected to benefit from the recovery of the domestic economy and global liquidity [78][86]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading player in the mining sector in the western region of China, with a stable operational system and a focus on copper, lead, zinc, and iron mining. It has a significant presence in various provinces, including Tibet, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Gansu, and is not directly affected by geopolitical risks [84][86]. Resource and Production Capacity - As of the first half of 2024, the company holds substantial mineral reserves, including 5.93 million tons of copper, 1.54 million tons of aluminum, 2.66 million tons of zinc, and 29.649 million tons of iron ore. The company operates 15 mines, with a focus on high-quality resources [54][69]. Financial Performance - The company has shown robust financial performance, with a projected revenue of 42.748 billion yuan in 2023, expected to grow to 53.837 billion yuan by 2026. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 2.789 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.105 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [18][30]. Profit Contribution - The copper segment is the primary source of profit, contributing 56% to the gross profit in 2023. The company has also seen significant contributions from by-products like molybdenum, which has been increasing since 2022 [46][78]. Dividend Policy - The company has a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders through dividends, with a cash dividend of 1.19 billion yuan in 2023 and a dividend payout ratio of 42.7%, which is among the highest in the industry [65][78].