Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Maintain" [8] Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic policies are expected to enhance the concentration of the steel industry and improve the long-standing imbalance between supply and demand, benefiting leading players in the rebar sector. Additionally, the demand for medium and high-end special steel is anticipated to grow rapidly due to the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry [2][150]. Summary by Sections Operational Capability - The total asset turnover rate (TTM) for the A-share steel industry in Q3 2024 is 0.99 times, down by 0.06 times, and remains at the mid-level since 2017. The accounts receivable turnover rate (TTM) is 26.02 times, down by 1.95 times, and is at a low level since 2017. The inventory turnover rate (TTM) is 7.96 times, up by 0.15 times, and is at a relatively high level since 2017. The fixed asset turnover rate (TTM) is 2.24 times, down by 0.15 times, and is at the mid-level since 2017 [2][89][111]. Growth Capability - The A-share steel industry achieved a total operating revenue of CNY 1,831.233 billion from Q1 to Q3 2024, down by 8.2%, accounting for 3.5% of all 30 industries. In Q3 2024 alone, the operating revenue was CNY 581.102 billion, down by 12.4% year-on-year, marking the second-lowest growth rate since 2017. The net profit for the A-share steel industry from Q1 to Q3 2024 was CNY 1.846 billion, down by 93.6%, and in Q3 2024, the net profit was -CNY 6.938 billion, down by 152.4% [6][57][60]. Profitability - The weighted ROE (TTM) for the A-share steel industry in Q3 2024 is 0.9%, down by 1.4 percentage points, marking the second-lowest since 2017. The sales gross margin (TTM) is 4.5%, down by 0.2 percentage points, also the second-lowest since 2017. The sales net margin (TTM) is 0.4%, down by 0.6 percentage points, again the second-lowest since 2017. The sales collection rate (TTM) is 97.8%, up by 2 percentage points, indicating improved collection quality [7][51][104]. Debt Repayment Capability - The short-term debt repayment capability of the steel industry is stable, with a current ratio of 0.84 times, down by 0.06 times, ranking 28th among all industries. The long-term debt repayment capability is gradually improving [124][143]. Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on leading companies in the rebar sector that are expected to benefit from favorable policies and the special steel sector with good fundamentals, as the demand is expected to improve marginally [2][150].

行业周报 ·交通运输行业 五、风险提示………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 18 0.98% -0.14%-0.42%-0.70%-1.15%-1.33%-1.45%-1.73% -2.31%-2.73% -4.29% -5.63% -6.72% -8.00% -7.41% -7.00% -6.00% -5.00% -4.00% -3.00% -2.00% -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------ ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the electric power equipment and new energy industry as "Recommended" [10]. Core Viewpoints - The industry is currently experiencing a valuation at historical lows, with the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at 46.9 times as of December 20, 2024, which is 54.2% of its 10-year historical valuation percentile [8][22]. - The report highlights that the lithium carbonate price has slightly decreased to 75,600 CNY/ton (-1.01%), while the prices of various lithium battery materials show mixed trends [10][35]. - The photovoltaic industry is entering a down cycle in pricing, with significant price drops across the supply chain, indicating a potential oversupply situation [10][72]. Summary by Sections Valuation Analysis - As of December 20, 2024, the P/E ratios for various sub-industries are as follows: - Power grid: 25.2 times (37.6% of historical percentile) - Energy storage: 86.8 times (57.0%) - Solar energy: 117.2 times (94.5%) - New energy vehicles: 33.2 times (20.5%) - Wind power: 48.2 times (79.7%) [8][23]. Industry Data Tracking - Lithium carbonate price is at 75,600 CNY/ton, with a decrease of 1.01% [10][75]. - The photovoltaic supply chain is experiencing price declines, with polysilicon prices remaining stable at 35.0 CNY/kg [10][24]. - The report notes that the gross profit margins in the photovoltaic sector are under pressure, with the overall industry gross profit reaching -0.09 CNY/W [72]. Key News Tracking - Significant announcements include major contracts from Changgao Electric and Qifan Cable, as well as equity incentive plans from Goldwind Technology [9]. - The report mentions the launch of a competitive bidding process for a 7.65 million kW offshore wind power project in Jiangsu [30][114]. - The report also highlights the approval of a 14.5 billion USD loan guarantee for Hanwha QCells to support solar supply chain manufacturing in Georgia, USA [65]. Important Announcements Tracking - Key announcements include Jiangsu Huachen's issuance of convertible bonds to raise up to 460 million CNY [9]. - Goldwind Technology's stock incentive plan has been approved, allowing for the issuance of 39.4 million shares at a price of 4.09 CNY/share [9]. - The report notes that major contracts have been awarded in the offshore wind sector, with a total value of approximately 415.82 million CNY for the Yangjiang wind farm project [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the building materials industry [8] Core Views - Cement: Demand decline significantly impacts prices, with national cement prices continuing to decrease. The current demand is heavily influenced by weather conditions, leading to a downward trend in most regions. The supply side shows stable staggered production, with a kiln shutdown rate exceeding 85% in northern regions. Short-term demand is expected to decline further due to falling temperatures and the upcoming Spring Festival, which will have a more pronounced effect on prices. However, medium to long-term prospects may improve with policy support for infrastructure investment, which could boost cement demand [1][95] - Consumer Building Materials: Retail performance has shown significant improvement, with a 2.3% year-on-year decline in retail sales of building and decoration materials from January to November 2024, a narrowing of 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous period. November saw a 2.9% year-on-year increase in sales, driven by positive changes in the real estate market and a surge in demand due to year-end project completions. Future policies are expected to further stimulate demand [2][75] - Glass Fiber: The terminal demand remains weak, with stable pricing for raw yarns but limited support from downstream orders. The market shows a cautious outlook, with expectations for price stability in the short term. However, medium to long-term demand is anticipated to grow due to emerging markets such as wind energy and automotive lightweighting [2][62] Summary by Sections Cement - National cement production from January to November 2024 reached 1.671 billion tons, a 10.1% year-on-year decline, marking the lowest level since 2010. November's production was 169 million tons, down 10.7% year-on-year [10] - The average national cement price as of December 20 was 357.11 CNY per ton, a 0.62% decrease week-on-week, but an 8.65% increase year-on-year [49] - The report recommends companies like Huaxin Cement and Shangfeng Cement, which are expected to benefit from infrastructure investment recovery and potential price increases [4][63] Consumer Building Materials - The retail sector for building materials is recovering, with significant growth expected in the fourth quarter due to year-end project completions and policy support for old housing renovations [2][75] - Recommended companies include Beixin Building Materials and Weixing New Materials, which are positioned to benefit from the recovery in demand [4][63] Glass Fiber - The report indicates that while raw yarn prices remain stable, the overall demand is weak, particularly in the electronic fiber segment. However, the long-term outlook is positive due to growth in high-demand sectors [2][62] - China Jushi is highlighted as a recommended company due to its expanding capacity and increasing share of high-end products [4][63]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector index decreased by 3.09% this week, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.70% and the CSI 300 Index by 0.14%. Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals sector index has increased by 6.46% compared to 13.21% for the Shanghai Composite Index and 14.47% for the CSI 300 Index [5][16]. - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to slow down, which may put short-term pressure on metal prices [16][18]. Price Trends - Basic metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were reported at 73,820 CNY/ton, 19,975 CNY/ton, 25,155 CNY/ton, 17,360 CNY/ton, 122,410 CNY/ton, and 242,620 CNY/ton respectively, with weekly changes of -1.22%, -2.04%, -2.10%, -0.43%, -5.34%, and -2.58% [14][17]. - London Metal Exchange (LME) prices for the same metals were reported at 8,944 USD/ton, 2,542 USD/ton, 2,973 USD/ton, 1,981 USD/ton, 15,350 USD/ton, and 28,660 USD/ton, with weekly changes of -1.20%, -2.42%, -3.97%, -1.44%, -3.23%, and -1.50% [14][17]. Subsector Performance - Among the five secondary industries within the non-ferrous metals sector, industrial metals, precious metals, minor metals, energy metals, and new metal materials experienced weekly changes of -3.47%, -5.67%, -2.40%, -3.16%, and +2.32% respectively [5][16]. - The top five performing stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector this week were *ST Xinke (+47.67%), Walden Nuclear Materials (+21.11%), Lianrui New Materials (+20.36%), Western Materials (+16.91%), and Pengxin Resources (+14.46%) [11][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Shandong Gold (600547), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Yintai Gold (000975), and Chifeng Gold (600988) due to expected increases in gold holdings driven by global ETF demand and potential inflationary pressures from U.S. fiscal policies [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the thermal power sector, highlighting its potential for policy-driven growth and continuous performance improvement. It also expresses a long-term positive outlook for the hydropower and nuclear power sectors due to their strong dividend capabilities [2][3]. Core Insights - In November, the total industrial power generation reached 749.5 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, reflecting a slowdown of 1.2 percentage points compared to October. The growth rates for various power sources in November were as follows: thermal power increased by 1.4%, hydropower decreased by 1.9%, nuclear power grew by 3.1%, wind power declined by 3.3%, and solar power surged by 10.3% [1][7]. - The report indicates that the decline in hydropower generation has significantly narrowed, primarily due to favorable water storage conditions, which are expected to support power generation during the dry season [1][7]. - The report projects that by the end of 2024, the cumulative installed capacity for wind and solar power will reach 510 GW and 840 GW, respectively, with a total of approximately 300 GW of new renewable energy installations expected for the year [7][16]. Summary by Sections Power Generation Data - In November, the total electricity consumption was 784.9 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, which is a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from October. The growth rates for different sectors were: primary industry at 7.6%, secondary industry at 2.2%, tertiary industry at 4.7%, and residential consumption at 2.9% [8]. - The report attributes the slowdown in electricity consumption growth to warmer temperatures and a high base effect from the previous year [8]. Company Focus - The report highlights specific companies to watch, including Huaneng International, Huadian International, Chuanwei Energy, Yangtze Power, and China General Nuclear Power, which are expected to benefit from the favorable market conditions [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the food and beverage industry [9]. Core Insights - Insight 1: The new gifting feature on WeChat is expected to boost revenue growth in certain food and beverage sectors. The feature is anticipated to convert some cash gifts into physical gifts, particularly during the holiday season, which includes Christmas, New Year, Spring Festival, and Valentine's Day. Snacks, dairy products, and certain beverages are expected to be popular gifting categories [2][4]. - Insight 2: Companies with strong brand power are likely to benefit more significantly from this trend. The report suggests that well-known brands are more likely to be chosen for gifting due to their perceived quality and status. The WeChat platform is expected to enhance brand promotion and product penetration through social interactions [5][6]. - Insight 3: The WeChat gifting feature is seen as an innovation that could empower the food and beverage sector. The process is designed to be more social and convenient compared to traditional gifting methods, potentially increasing demand for giftable products such as snacks, health products, seasonal items, dairy, and beverages [6]. Company-Specific Summaries - Company 1: Three Squirrels (300783.SZ) - EPS forecast for 2024E is 1.0, with a PE of 39, rated as "Cautious Recommendation" [8]. - Company 2: Zhizhi Food (002557.SZ) - EPS forecast for 2024E is 2.0, with a PE of 16, rated as "Recommendation" [8]. - Company 3: Jinzhai Food (003000.SZ) - EPS forecast for 2024E is 0.6, with a PE of 21, rated as "Recommendation" [8]. - Company 4: Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SH) - EPS forecast for 2024E is 6.3, with a PE of 38, rated as "Recommendation" [8]. - Company 5: Huanlejia (300997.SZ) - EPS forecast for 2024E is 0.4, with a PE of 43, rated as "Cautious Recommendation" [8]. - Company 6: Yili Group (600887.SH) - EPS forecast for 2024E is 1.9, with a PE of 16, rated as "Recommendation" [8]. - Company 7: New Dairy (002946.SZ) - EPS forecast for 2024E is 0.6, with a PE of 23, rated as "Recommendation" [8].

Core Views - The construction of Hainan Free Trade Port has accelerated since its proposal in 2018, with over 60 key policies and regulations introduced across various sectors including legislation, taxation, trade, investment, talent, industry, and finance [3][8][21]. Hainan Free Trade Port - Hainan Free Trade Port possesses three major advantages: geographical location, abundant resources, and strong policy support. Its natural island structure and proximity to Southeast Asia provide significant locational benefits, while its rich marine and tropical resources facilitate economic development [8][21]. - The year 2025 is critical for the Hainan Free Trade Port, marking the transition from pre-closure to post-closure phases. The focus will be on establishing a modern industrial system and implementing key reforms to ensure smooth operations [8][21]. - Tax incentives such as zero tariffs and low tax rates on certain imports will significantly boost the development of Hainan Free Trade Port, aiming to align with higher-level international trade rules [8][21]. Economic Impact - The construction of the Free Trade Port is expected to have three positive impacts: stimulating infrastructure investment and consumption, providing a model for high-level national openness, and enhancing China's global economic cooperation image [5][22]. Beijing Stock Exchange - The trading activity on the Beijing Stock Exchange has seen a decline, with the average daily trading volume dropping to approximately 172.68 billion yuan, down from 341.48 billion yuan the previous week [11][12]. - The overall market valuation of the Beijing Stock Exchange has decreased, with the average price-to-earnings ratio falling to 37.7 times, which is lower than that of the ChiNext board [11][12]. Investment Strategy - For 2025, three main investment directions are recommended: focusing on companies with high growth potential and strong R&D investment, monitoring companies engaged in mergers and acquisitions, and paying attention to state-owned enterprises with stable operations and strong growth capabilities [12][11].

874044 资料来源：全国中小企业股份转让系统 中国银河证券研究院 北交所周报 张智浩北交所分析师。哥伦比亚大学理学硕士，2024年加入中国银河证券研究院，从事北交所研究。 核心观点 ● 北交所建立上市公司信息披露评价体系,引导上市公司提高信息披露质 量。北交所于 2024年 12月 20日发布《北京证券交易所上市公司持续监管 指引第12号——信息披露工作评价》,相关规则自发布之日起施行。信息披 露质量是上市公司质量的重要体现,也是投资者价值判断和投资决策的重要 依据。《指引》通过综合评价上市公司信息披露及规范运作情况,有助于进 一步提升市场透明度,保障投资者合法权益。 ● 投资策略:北交所交投活跃度保持在较高水平,市场关注度保持高位。叠加 北交所新股发行稳步推进,我们认为北交所板块具备投资价值。对于 2025年 投资策略,我们推荐三个主要方向:1)聚焦北交所新质生产力,关注具有成 长潜力,布局热点赛道的公司,其一是业绩增速高、研发投入强的成长性公 司,其二是募投项目产能释放助推业绩成长的公司;2)政策端鼓励并购,叠 加北交所公司注重多元化布局及横向纵向拓展,关注进行产业链协同扩张或 计划海外布局的公司;3 ...