每日晨报 银河观点集萃 ● 通信:AI+算力提振营收质量,高景气度有望延续。当前通信行业的推动因素 主要以运营商资本开支结构优化为基础,人工智能共振,细分子行业发散为主 的新范式。当前基金公司主要持仓头部集中度较高,仍有较大挖掘空间,建议 优选空间较大且未来动能充足的板块,并关注细分子行业中绩优标的:建议关 注:运营商中国移动、中国联通、中国电信;主设备商中兴通讯;光纤光缆中 天科技、亨通光电;北斗导航华测导航、卫星互联网海格通信、华力创通、震 有科技等;车/物联网移远通信、广和通等,连接器瑞可达、意华股份等;光模 块中际旭创、新易盛、光迅科技,光器件及光芯片天孚通信、德科立、太辰光、 金信诺等;专网通信东方通信、万马科技;量子通信国盾量子;视频会议亿联 网络等。 ● 汽车:央国企引领专题：国企改革提质增效,加快汽车强国建设。展望未来, 在国产汽车品牌崛起之路上,民企更加灵活多变,能够快速适应市场变化并推 出创新产品,国企则更加稳健,注重长期发展和技术创新,民企与国企仍将继 续并行发展,合力推动我国汽车工业国际竞争力的提升。多手段促进改革,力 争在新能源、智能化全球领跑。改革助力央国企持续做大做强,带来价值重 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry [9]. Core Insights - The AI wave is leading a new phase in the digital economy, with central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) taking on new historical missions as they drive technological breakthroughs and deep industrial transformations [9]. - The share of SOE revenue in China's GDP has increased from 62.44% in 2020 to 68.01% in 2023, highlighting their significant role in the economy [9]. - The restructuring of global supply chains is expected to lead to a revaluation of central SOEs, as their counter-cyclical investments can mitigate external shocks and enhance cash flow predictability [9]. - The domestic innovation ecosystem is being revalued, with central SOEs playing a crucial role in stabilizing the industry chain and enhancing long-term development stability [9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of central SOEs in the information technology sector, with companies like China Electronics and China Electronics Technology Group leading in key technologies [9]. Summary by Sections Section 1: New Quality Productive Forces - New quality productive forces are characterized by high technology, high efficiency, and high quality, driven by technological breakthroughs and deep industrial transformations [12][49]. - The integration of data as a new productive factor is recognized, with its marketization providing more momentum for technological innovation [49]. Section 2: Missions of Information Technology Central SOEs - Information technology central SOEs are tasked with enhancing core functions and competitiveness, as outlined in the recent central government directives [52][53]. - Key missions include strengthening innovation resource coordination, deepening state-owned enterprise reforms, promoting digital transformation, ensuring network security, and expanding international markets [53][54]. Section 3: Counter-Cyclical Regulation - Central SOEs play a vital role in counter-cyclical regulation, stabilizing production and operations of non-state-owned enterprises during economic downturns [58][60]. - The revenue share of SOEs in GDP has shown a consistent upward trend, indicating their buffering effect against external shocks [60]. Section 4: R&D Investment and High-Quality Development - Central SOEs have significantly increased R&D investments, with total R&D spending surpassing 1 trillion yuan in 2023, reflecting a commitment to high-quality development [72]. - The report highlights the growth in R&D spending among selected central SOEs in the computer industry, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.29% over five years [72]. Section 5: Mergers and Acquisitions in the Innovation Industry - The report discusses the role of mergers and acquisitions among central SOEs in developing the domestic innovation industry, particularly in the context of the "信创" (Xinchuang) initiative [83][88]. - Recent mergers, such as the integration of China Electronics Technology Group and China Hualu Group, are expected to enhance core competencies and strengthen the innovation ecosystem [88].

Investment Rating - The report recommends leading state-owned enterprises in the automotive sector, specifically Changan Automobile and GAC Group, with benefiting stocks including SAIC Motor and Jianghuai Automobile for passenger vehicles, Weichai Power and China National Heavy Duty Truck for commercial vehicles, Huayu Automotive for parts, and China Automotive Engineering for automotive services [8][163]. Core Viewpoints - The central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are crucial to the automotive industry, having led the sector from its inception to a position of competitive advantage, particularly in the context of the rapid development of new energy vehicles (NEVs) since 2015 [7][35]. - The revenue share of central SOEs in the automotive sector has decreased from 80% in 2010 to 55.15% in 2023, yet they still play a dominant role, generating a total revenue of 1.91 trillion yuan in 2023 [23][24]. - The report highlights the need for central SOEs to enhance their capabilities in NEVs and smart technologies through various reform measures, including optimizing state capital layout and deepening diversified cooperation [7][8]. - The report anticipates that the ongoing reforms will stimulate the growth of NEV sales among central SOEs, leading to a potential revaluation of their market value [35][158]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Central SOEs Leading the Charge - The development of China's automotive industry has been spearheaded by central SOEs, evolving from a difficult start to a position of competitive advantage [7][14]. - Currently, there are 46 central SOE listed companies in the automotive sector, accounting for over 25% of the total market capitalization [21][22]. Section 2: Reform Measures to Enhance Competitiveness - Central SOEs are implementing various strategies to improve their competitiveness, including restructuring, collaboration with tech firms, and enhancing governance mechanisms [7][8]. - The establishment of joint ventures and partnerships, such as the collaboration between Changan and Huawei, is aimed at advancing smart and connected vehicle technologies [81][102]. Section 3: Reform Driving Growth and Value Reassessment - The transition to NEVs is expected to provide new growth momentum for central SOEs, with the potential for significant increases in sales and profitability [35][158]. - The report notes that the profitability of central SOEs has been lagging behind private enterprises, particularly in the NEV segment, highlighting the need for accelerated transformation [41][43]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks within the automotive sector, including Changan Automobile and GAC Group for passenger vehicles, Weichai Power for commercial vehicles, and Huayu Automotive for parts [8][163].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the electric power equipment and new energy industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the valuation of the electric power equipment and new energy industry is at a historical low, with a significant increase in expected returns. As of November 22, 2024, the industry’s price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 47.27 times, which is 54.90% of its 10-year historical valuation percentile, indicating it is in a historical bottom region [23][38]. - The report notes that the lithium carbonate price has shown an upward trend, reaching 79,000 yuan/ton (+0.43%) as of November 22, 2024, while other materials like the ternary 622 precursor have decreased by 3.50% to 69,000 yuan/ton [40][53]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From November 15 to November 22, 2024, the CSI 300 index decreased by 2.60%, the ChiNext index fell by 3.03%, and the new energy index dropped by 1.90%, ranking 17th among industries. Notably, the fuel cell, nuclear power, and comprehensive energy equipment sectors saw significant increases of 5.79%, 0.97%, and 0.26%, respectively [19]. Valuation Analysis - The report emphasizes that the valuation is at a historical low, with the electric power equipment and new energy industry (CI) price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) at 47.27 times, which is 54.90% of its 10-year historical valuation percentile, indicating a historical bottom region. The sub-industries of the grid, energy storage, new energy vehicles, and wind power have price-to-earnings ratios of 25.08, 84.75, 33.85, and 46.57 times, respectively, with historical valuation percentiles of 33.74%, 56.02%, 19.39%, and 79.52% [23][38]. Industry Data Tracking - The report indicates that the photovoltaic industry chain prices have entered a downward cycle, with the price of high-purity silicon material remaining stable at 36.0 yuan/kg as of November 20, 2024. The prices of various components, including monocrystalline silicon wafers and battery cells, have also remained stable [40][48]. - The report highlights that the overall profit margins in the industry are under pressure due to rapid price declines, particularly in the silicon material segment, where the gross profit margin was reported at -0.01 yuan/W as of November 21, 2024 [48]. Key News Tracking - The report mentions significant developments such as the successful trial operation of the Qinghai electricity spot market and the announcement of a major tender by the Southern Power Grid for materials worth 8.859 billion yuan for 2024 [66][70].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Low Price Enhanced Strategy (PMS Code: 1621837) - **Model Construction Idea**: The low-price factor has been effective in the convertible bond market for a long time, often used as a foundational strategy by convertible bond funds and "fixed income+" funds. The strategy aims to enhance returns by relaxing industry restrictions and focusing on convertible bonds with higher payoff potential under policy support and changing trading logic [2][3] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Stock Fundamentals Dimension**: Select companies with positive net profit, positive operating cash flow, and a positive cash-to-maturing-debt ratio. Relax constraints on stock price-to-book ratio and stock price floor [2][3] - **Convertible Bond Characteristics Dimension**: Choose bonds with more than 30 days of listing, over 360 days of remaining maturity, a balance greater than 100 million yuan, and a credit rating above AA-. Exclude bonds with announced or triggered forced redemption clauses [3] - **Convertible Bond Trading Dimension**: Focus on actively traded bonds in the top 75% of stock trading activity, with a conversion premium below 80% and a price above 80 yuan. Limit industry concentration to 20% [3] - **Execution**: Select up to 20 convertible bonds with the lowest prices that meet the criteria, compare with the previous holdings, and adjust by removing non-compliant bonds and adding compliant ones [3] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy sacrifices some stock fundamentals quality to achieve higher payoff potential while maintaining a focus on avoiding default risks [2][3] 2. Model Name: Low Price Large Market Cap Enhanced Strategy (PMS Code: 1630007) - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy enhances the low-price factor by incorporating large market cap preferences, aligning with the investment tendencies of institutional investors such as insurance and bank wealth management funds. It aims to increase returns by relaxing industry restrictions and focusing on mid-to-large-cap convertible bonds [15][17] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Stock Fundamentals Dimension**: Select companies with positive net profit, positive operating cash flow, and a positive cash-to-maturing-debt ratio. Relax constraints on stock price-to-book ratio and stock price floor [15][17] - **Convertible Bond Characteristics Dimension**: Choose bonds with more than 30 days of listing, over 360 days of remaining maturity, a balance greater than 100 million yuan, and a credit rating above AA-. Exclude bonds with announced or triggered forced redemption clauses [17] - **Convertible Bond Trading Dimension**: Focus on actively traded mid-to-large-cap bonds in the top 75% of stock trading activity, with a conversion premium below 80% and a price above 80 yuan. Limit industry concentration to 20% [17] - **Execution**: Select up to 20 convertible bonds with the lowest prices that meet the criteria, compare with the previous holdings, and adjust by removing non-compliant bonds and adding compliant ones [17] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy balances the low-price factor with large market cap preferences, aiming to achieve higher returns while maintaining a focus on avoiding default risks [15][17] 3. Model Name: Improved Double Low Strategy (PMS Code: 1631754) - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy selects convertible bonds with low prices and low conversion premiums, dynamically adjusting and rotating holdings to balance safety and potential returns [28][30] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Stock Fundamentals Dimension**: Select companies with positive net profit, positive operating cash flow, and a positive cash-to-maturing-debt ratio [30] - **Convertible Bond Characteristics Dimension**: Choose bonds with more than 30 days of listing, over 360 days of remaining maturity, a balance greater than 100 million yuan, and a credit rating above A+. Exclude bonds with announced or triggered forced redemption clauses [30] - **Convertible Bond Trading Dimension**: Focus on actively traded bonds in the top 75% of stock trading activity, with a price above 80 yuan. Limit industry concentration to 20% [30] - **Execution**: Select up to 10 convertible bonds with the lowest combined "double low" values (price and conversion premium), compare with the previous holdings, and adjust by removing non-compliant bonds and adding compliant ones [30] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy effectively balances price and value, providing a safety cushion while seeking higher potential returns [28][30] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Low Price Enhanced Strategy - **Cumulative Return (YTD)**: 6.74% [4][9] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.48 [4][9] - **Alpha**: 2.67% [9] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -10.81% [4][9] - **Daily Win Rate**: 54.11% [4][9] - **Weekly Win Rate**: 52.17% [4][9] - **Monthly Win Rate**: 44.44% [4][9] - **Profit-Loss Ratio**: 1.22 [4][9] 2. Low Price Large Market Cap Enhanced Strategy - **Cumulative Return (YTD)**: 6.08% [18][22] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.44 [18][22] - **Alpha**: 2.04% [22] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -11.51% [18][22] - **Daily Win Rate**: 58.44% [18][22] - **Weekly Win Rate**: 50.00% [18][22] - **Monthly Win Rate**: 55.56% [18][22] - **Profit-Loss Ratio**: 1.04 [18][22] 3. Improved Double Low Strategy - **Cumulative Return (YTD)**: 11.61% [31][34] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.80 [31][34] - **Alpha**: 7.83% [34] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -11.19% [31][34] - **Daily Win Rate**: 53.25% [31][34] - **Weekly Win Rate**: 52.17% [31][34] - **Monthly Win Rate**: 66.67% [31][34] - **Profit-Loss Ratio**: 0.97 [31][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the electric power equipment and new energy industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the valuation of the electric power equipment and new energy industry is at a historical low, with a significant increase in expected returns. As of November 22, 2024, the industry’s price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 47.27 times, which is 54.90% of its 10-year historical valuation percentile, indicating it is in a historical bottom region [23][38]. - The report notes that the lithium carbonate price has shown an upward trend, reaching 79,000 yuan/ton (+0.43%), while the price of ternary 622 precursor has decreased to 69,000 yuan/ton (-3.50%) [40][53]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From November 15 to November 22, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 2.60%, the ChiNext Index fell by 3.03%, and the new energy index dropped by 1.90%, ranking 17th among industries. The fuel cell, nuclear power, and comprehensive energy equipment sectors saw significant increases of 5.79%, 0.97%, and 0.26%, respectively [19]. Valuation Analysis - The report indicates that the valuation is at a historical low, with the electric power equipment and new energy industry (CI) price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) at 47.27 times, which is 54.90% of its 10-year historical valuation percentile, indicating a historical bottom region. The price-to-earnings ratios for the grid, energy storage, new energy vehicles, and wind power sectors are 25.08 times, 84.75 times, 33.85 times, and 46.57 times, respectively, corresponding to their 10-year historical valuation percentiles of 33.74%, 56.02%, 19.39%, and 79.52% [23][38]. Industry Data Tracking - The report states that the photovoltaic industry chain prices have entered a down cycle. As of November 20, 2024, the price of high-purity silicon material is 36.0 yuan/kg (unchanged), and the prices of various photovoltaic components have remained stable [40][48]. - The report also highlights that the overall profit margins in the industry are under pressure due to rapid price declines, particularly in the silicon material segment, where the gross profit margin is reported at -0.01 yuan/W, leading to a significant squeeze on industry profitability [48]. Key News Tracking - The report mentions several key developments, including the successful trial operation of the Qinghai electricity spot market and the announcement of a major tender by the Southern Power Grid for materials worth 8.859 billion yuan for 2024 [66][70].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the electric new industry. Core Insights - The electric new industry is experiencing significant revenue decline, with a reported revenue of 2,371.6 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, down 9.3% year-on-year, marking a 22.89 percentage point decrease in growth rate [4][5]. - The industry is in a bottoming phase, with Q3 2024 revenue of 825.2 billion yuan, also down 9.3% year-on-year and 2.1% quarter-on-quarter, indicating the first decline in Q3 revenue in three years [5][6]. - The net profit for the electric new industry in Q1-Q3 2024 was 103.3 billion yuan, a significant drop of 49.4% year-on-year, with 239 companies reporting profits, representing 77.1% of the total [9][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Q3 2024 Performance Review - The electric new industry reported a revenue of 8,252.04 billion yuan in Q3 2024, down 9.3% year-on-year and 2.1% quarter-on-quarter [5][6]. - The industry is still in a bottoming phase, with Q1-Q3 2024 revenue showing a clear downward trend [5]. 2. Major Sub-sectors Performance - In Q1-Q3 2024, the top three revenue growth sectors were electric motors (+11.0%), distribution equipment (+8.0%), and power electronics and automation (+7.9%) [36]. - Only distribution equipment (+19.6%) and nuclear power (+3.5%) achieved positive net profit growth, while the solar sector saw a drastic decline of 115.6% in net profit [36]. 3. Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for the electric new industry decreased by 2.1 percentage points to 17.71% in Q1-Q3 2024, with 182 companies above the industry average [13]. - The net profit margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 4.69%, down 3.78 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a low profitability level [23]. 4. Cash Flow Situation - The operating cash flow net amount for the electric new industry reached 1,139.76 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, down 32.2% year-on-year, but Q3 2024 saw a significant increase of 11.6% year-on-year [33]. 5. Sub-sector Insights - The lithium battery sector reported a revenue of 6,305.82 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, down 13.0% year-on-year, with a net profit of 497.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.6% [60]. - In Q3 2024, the lithium battery sector's revenue was 2,214.85 billion yuan, down 13.6% year-on-year but showing signs of recovery with a slight quarter-on-quarter increase [63]. 6. Key Performance Indicators - The lithium battery sector's gross margin improved to 21.93% in Q3 2024, reflecting a recovery trend, while the net margin was 8.14% [69]. - The sector's inventory levels increased to 1,610.64 billion yuan, with a significant rise in accounts receivable, indicating a tightening cash flow situation [74].

Investment Rating - The communication industry maintains a "Recommended" rating [5] Core Insights - The communication index has performed well, ranking second in the industry year-to-date, with a growth of 31.52% since the beginning of 2024, driven by the momentum from artificial intelligence [12][13] - Revenue and profit levels in the communication industry have shown signs of recovery, with significant improvements in revenue growth and gross margin [2][41] - The capital expenditure structure optimization by operators, combined with AI developments, is expected to drive strong performance in the computing and communication application sectors [3][19] Summary by Sections 1. Communication Industry: Increased Attention and High Concentration of Holdings - The communication industry has seen a significant increase in market capitalization and trading volume, with a market share of approximately 2.62% of the total A-share market [12][13] - Fund companies have shown a high concentration in holdings within the communication sector, with a total holding amount reaching 139.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.82% [20][22] 2. Continuous Improvement in Revenue Quality and Effective Cost Control - The communication industry achieved a total revenue of 1.89 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.85% [41] - The gross margin for the communication industry reached 28.93%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.73 percentage points [47] 3. AI and Capital Expenditure Structure Optimization Resonance - The AI-driven computing sector has seen significant revenue growth, while the Internet of Things sector is recovering from a downturn [3] - The gross margin for the computing sector continues to show an upward trend, indicating strong performance [3] 4. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include major operators such as China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom, as well as key players in various sub-sectors like ZTE Corporation and Zhongtian Technology [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the automotive industry, recommending specific companies such as BYD and Li Auto, while also highlighting beneficiaries like Geely and Longxin General [4]. Core Insights - The retail sales of passenger vehicles from November 1 to 17 reached 1.106 million units, a year-on-year increase of 30% and a month-on-month increase of 3%. Cumulatively, retail sales for the year have reached 18.942 million units, up 5% year-on-year [2][12]. - The wholesale of passenger vehicles during the same period was 1.271 million units, marking a 37% year-on-year increase and a 22% month-on-month increase, with a total of 22.447 million units sold this year, also up 6% year-on-year [2][12]. - In the new energy vehicle sector, retail sales reached 581,000 units, a 66% year-on-year increase, while wholesale reached 654,000 units, a 71% year-on-year increase [2][12]. - The report indicates that the market is benefiting from the continued effects of government subsidies, with over 2 million applications for vehicle scrapping and replacement subsidies submitted by November 18 [2][12]. - The report forecasts that the narrow passenger vehicle retail market for November will be around 2.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15.4% and a month-on-month increase of 6.1% [2][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly Update - The automotive market's sales momentum continues, supported by government subsidy policies, with a significant increase in both retail and wholesale figures for November [2][12]. - The inventory levels of dealers have decreased, with the comprehensive inventory coefficient for October at 1.10, down 35.3% year-on-year and 14.7% month-on-month, indicating a new low for 2023 [13]. Market Review - The automotive sector's performance was ranked 18th among 30 industries, with a weekly decline of 1.92%. The sub-sectors of sales and services, parts, motorcycles, commercial vehicles, and passenger vehicles experienced varying declines [14][20]. - The report provides detailed valuation metrics, with price-to-earnings ratios for different segments, indicating the relative valuation of the automotive sector compared to the broader market [20][24]. Industry News - Notable developments include the signing of an agreement by BYD to expand its automotive industrial park in Shenzhen, which is expected to significantly increase production capacity [37]. - Xiaomi reported a revenue of 9.5 billion yuan from its smart electric vehicles in the third quarter, reflecting the growing market for electric vehicles [36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The ongoing effectiveness of stock policies, combined with the successful implementation of incremental policies, is expected to enhance market expectations for black metals. Multiple policies are likely to improve the concentration of the steel industry and rectify the long-standing imbalance in supply and demand, benefiting leading steel enterprises. Additionally, the development of downstream sectors such as aerospace and automotive manufacturing is anticipated to drive stable growth in special steel companies [4][115] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The steel sector index declined by 1.31% this week, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.91%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.89%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.03% [2][33] - Among the three major sub-sectors, plate, special steel, and pipe materials saw declines of 0.18%, 3.71%, and 5.28% respectively. Year-to-date, the plate sector has increased by 6.38% [2][37] Price Analysis - Domestic steel prices showed slight weakness this week. The average price of rebar was 3,305.8 CNY/ton, down 198.4 CNY/ton (5.66%) from last week. Wire rod averaged 3,703.4 CNY/ton, down 52.0 CNY/ton (1.38%). Hot-rolled sheet averaged 3,607.4 CNY/ton, down 12.8 CNY/ton (0.35%) [2][56] - The Platts iron ore price index averaged 101.21 USD/ton, up 1.67 USD/ton (1.67%) from last week, while the domestic iron ore import price averaged 705.0 CNY/ton, up 1.4 CNY/ton (0.20%) [2][69] Industry Developments - The "14th Five-Year" development planning research for the steel industry has commenced, focusing on optimizing stock development and achieving high-quality growth. Key points include prohibiting new capacity, optimizing existing stock, and enhancing the application of steel products [3][43] - The report highlights the importance of technological innovation and the development of new production capabilities, emphasizing the need for high-end, intelligent, and green development in the steel industry [3][44] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the special steel sector with favorable fundamentals and those in the general steel sector that may benefit from policy-driven demand improvements [4][115]