每日晨报 银河观点集萃 ● 策略:市场围绕降息、特朗普内阁和地缘风险持续发酵——全球大类资产配置 周观察。权益市场：全球多数权益市场表现分化。大选结束后美股市场聚焦特 朗普内阁布局,同时美国经济活动维持回升迹象,美联储降息节奏存在收紧趋 势。周内英伟达第三财季净利润增长 109%,且第四财季的营收展望超出市场 平均预期,但未能匹配投资者的最高预期,受此拖累纳斯达克指数涨幅有限。 当前美国典型的成长行业存在估值过高的问题,中长期配置性价比有所降低。 ● 固收:需求端改善明显,置换隐债进度加速。债券市场表现跟踪:本周利率债 一级市场发行规模整体回升,其中地方债回升幅度较大。新增专项债发行进度 已达 102%,新增地方政府债整体发行进度 100.7%,人大常委会以来 2 万亿 置换隐债专项债发行进度42.67%,发行期限集中在长期、超长期,占比超88%; 二级市场利率表现上,长、短端利率均下行,收益率曲线整体略陡、利差扩张; 公开市场资金本周净投放 668亿元,下周逆回购到期规模 18682 亿元。 ● 军工:央国企引领专题:资产整合再深化,提质增效焕新颜。我国正探索中国 特色估值体系,军工央企仍有较大提升空间。首 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the construction materials industry [5] Core Insights - Cement: The industry has entered a staggered production phase, leading to a gradual decrease in inventory. National cement prices continue to rise due to strong support from staggered production on the supply side. However, overall national demand for cement remains weak, with a decrease in demand expected as temperatures drop. In the medium to long term, infrastructure projects are anticipated to boost cement demand [2][65] - Consumer Building Materials: Retail sales of consumer building materials showed a month-on-month increase in October, driven by policies stimulating a recovery in the real estate market. The retail sales of building and decoration materials decreased by 5.8% year-on-year in October but increased by 4.9% month-on-month. The real estate market is expected to continue recovering, which will drive demand for consumer building materials [2][66] - Fiberglass: Short-term demand remains limited, with stable prices for both roving and electronic yarn. The overall supply is expected to remain stable, but manufacturers are keen to maintain prices. In the medium to long term, demand from the thermoplastic and wind power yarn markets is expected to grow, providing potential for price increases [3] - Float Glass: Prices have slightly decreased, but new capacity replacement regulations are expected to accelerate industry consolidation. Demand is anticipated to recover towards the end of the year, supported by urgent construction needs [3] Summary by Sections Cement - The national average cement price is 364.23 CNY per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.89% and a year-on-year increase of 13.80% [37] - The clinker inventory has decreased, with the national clinker inventory rate at 60.96%, down 2.46 percentage points from the previous week [37] Consumer Building Materials - Retail sales of building and decoration materials decreased by 3.0% year-on-year from January to October 2024, with a notable decline in October [2][66] - The recovery in the real estate market is expected to enhance demand for consumer building materials, particularly in the old renovation market [2][66] Fiberglass - The price of roving remains stable, with the average price for 2400tex roving at 3762.5 CNY per ton, showing a year-on-year increase of 12.73% [47] - Electronic yarn prices are also stable, with the average price for G75 electronic yarn at 9100 CNY per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.98% [47] Float Glass - The average price for float glass is 1455.61 CNY per ton, with a slight decrease from the previous week [34] - The float glass inventory has increased slightly, with a total inventory of 4282 million weight boxes, up 3.43% from the previous week [36]

行业周报 · 家电行业 内销改善叠加出口前置,空调产销增势强劲 板块行情回顾:家电板块个股普遍回调。本周(11月18日-11月22日) 家用电器(SW)指数下跌 2.14%,表现略强于沪深 300指数(-2.60%),收 益率在一级行业中位列第19 位。截止 11月 22日,家电指数累计年收益率 为 22.69%、跑赢沪深 300 指数 8.53 个百分点。从家电行业各细分板块来 看,本周白色家电/黑色家电/小家电/厨卫电器/照明设备 II/家电零部件 II 收 益率分别为-2.95%、-0.52%、-3.77%、2.15%、0.69%、0.51%，其中厨电 板块有所补涨,白电、小家电板块持续回落,行业投资情绪有所分化。本周 家电行业多数下跌,94只股票中有29只实现了正收益,其中四川九洲、爱 仕达、日出东方、*ST同洲、恒太照明、极米科技、鸿智科技、利仁科技、 格利尔、顺威股份领涨行业。 ● 以旧换新补贴使用加快,低基数下家电内销延续改善。根据奥维云网,2024 年第 46 周(2024-11-18~2024-11-22),空调/冰箱/洗衣机的线上零售额和 销 量 同 比 分 别 增 加 285.79%/2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry, specifically highlighting the investment value of state-owned enterprises in the sector [7][9]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the food and beverage industry under the new round of state-owned enterprise reforms, suggesting three main investment themes: 1) Strengthening key area guarantees, ensuring supply chain security; 2) Deep participation in global division of labor to build Chinese brands; 3) Increasing vertical integration and improving governance [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Opportunities in the Liquor Sector - The investment value of state-owned liquor companies is expected to rise due to their increased flexibility in responding to industry cycles, enhanced dividend returns, and a focus on local quality asset management [6][36]. 2. Investment Clues in Consumer Goods - The report identifies three dimensions for finding investment clues related to state-owned enterprise reforms in consumer goods: 1) Strengthening key area guarantees, particularly in dairy and seasoning products; 2) Deep participation in global division of labor, with companies like Mengniu Dairy achieving breakthroughs in overseas markets; 3) Mergers and acquisitions and efficiency improvements, with companies like Hengshun Vinegar and Mengniu Dairy expected to benefit from reforms [6][54][56]. 3. Specific Investment Recommendations - For the liquor sector, the report recommends focusing on Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Jianshijiu. In the consumer goods sector, it suggests looking at Hengshun Vinegar, Angel Yeast, China Resources Beverage, Mengniu Dairy, and Zhongju Gaoxin [7][8]. 4. Financial Projections and Valuations - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several key companies, indicating a positive outlook for their financial performance [8]. For example, Guizhou Moutai is projected to have an EPS of 67.45 in 2024 with a PE of 23, while Wuliangye is expected to have an EPS of 8.33 with a PE of 18 [8]. 5. Importance of State-Owned Enterprises - The report highlights the critical role of state-owned enterprises in maintaining national strategic security and their ability to lead the industry towards long-term development, particularly in essential sectors like dairy and seasoning [54][62]. 6. Global Expansion and Competitiveness - State-owned enterprises are positioned to enhance their global competitiveness through internationalization strategies, as exemplified by Mengniu Dairy's efforts to establish a global presence and improve operational efficiency [63][70]. 7. Dividend Policies - The report notes that state-owned liquor companies have increased their dividend payouts significantly, with Guizhou Moutai planning to maintain a dividend ratio of no less than 75% from 2024 to 2026 [43][50]. 8. Market Dynamics and Consumer Trends - The report discusses the current market dynamics, including the impact of economic cycles on liquor consumption and the potential for consumer goods to recover as demand stabilizes [36][43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the non-banking industry [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in leading the financial sector to support the construction of a financial powerhouse in China, focusing on five key areas: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance [2][3] - It highlights the need for financial institutions to enhance their risk management frameworks to prevent systemic financial risks, ensuring the stability of the financial system [3] - The report suggests investment opportunities in specific companies such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan, and others, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing reforms and market developments [3] Summary by Sections 1. Returning to Fundamentals: Five Key Financial Areas - The report outlines the necessity for financial institutions to focus on five major areas to support the real economy and enhance financial services [28] - It notes that the financing for technology-oriented SMEs has significantly increased, with loans exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board raising over 1 trillion yuan [35] - Central SOEs are positioned as the main force in promoting technology finance, with substantial underwriting activities in the technology sector [35] 2. Cross-Border Development: Building World-Class Financial Institutions - The report discusses the ongoing efforts to enhance the international competitiveness of Chinese financial institutions through cross-border operations [2] - It mentions that central SOEs are leading the charge in expanding their international business, particularly in Southeast Asia, the US, and Europe [70] 3. Strengthening Internal Capabilities: Preventing Systemic Financial Risks - The report stresses the importance of improving risk management systems within financial institutions to safeguard against systemic risks [3] - It highlights the need for a robust risk monitoring and assessment framework to enhance the core competitiveness of financial enterprises [3] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific companies that are likely to benefit from the financial sector's reforms and growth opportunities, including CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and others [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the banking sector, emphasizing the value of dividend and high-yield strategies [5]. Core Insights - The banking sector has shown resilience, with a marginal improvement in profit growth and stable asset quality in the first three quarters of 2024. The net profit of commercial banks increased by 0.48% year-on-year, with state-owned banks showing significant improvement [4][18]. - The introduction of the "Guidelines for Market Value Management" is expected to enhance the valuation of the banking sector, with a focus on shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks [3][15]. - The banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio is currently at 0.63, indicating a significant discount compared to the overall A-share market [33]. Summary by Sections Latest Research Insights - Market value management is reshaping the operational and investment logic of banks, with increased expectations for dividends and share buybacks, particularly among state-owned banks [3][17]. - The banking sector has benefited from a series of policies aimed at enhancing credit supply and managing risks, particularly in real estate [5][18]. Weekly Market Performance - The banking sector outperformed the broader market, with a decline of 1.17% compared to a 2.60% drop in the CSI 300 index. Notable gainers included Minsheng Bank (+2.56%) and Everbright Bank (+2.03%) [2][23]. Valuation of the Sector and Listed Companies - As of November 22, 2024, the banking sector's PB ratio stands at 0.63, significantly lower than the overall A-share market's 1.60, indicating a 39.58% discount [33]. - The banking sector's dividend yield is 5.18%, ranking second among all industries [33][38]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the new round of state-owned enterprise reforms and enhanced market value management will open up valuation recovery opportunities for banks. It recommends specific banks for investment, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398) and China Construction Bank (601939) [5][49].

Group 1: Core Views - The report emphasizes the transformation and upgrading of the energy cycle industry, highlighting the importance of new productive forces in driving high-quality development in China [5][69]. - It identifies significant investment opportunities in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, building materials, construction, and public utilities, driven by innovation and green transformation [5][9]. Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals industry is crucial for national economic development, with a production scale that continues to expand due to emerging industries [69]. - In 2023, the production of ten commonly used non-ferrous metals exceeded 70 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% in the first half of 2024 [69][70]. - The report suggests focusing on key areas such as new materials for digital information, solid-state battery materials for electric vehicles, and hard alloy materials for CNC machine tools [71]. Group 3: Chemicals - The chemical industry is a pillar of the national economy, facing structural challenges and the need for transformation towards high-end and green products [23][24]. - The report recommends attention to companies that focus on high-end product development and green transformation, such as Juhua Co., Yonghe Co., and Hubei Yihua [71]. Group 4: Building Materials - The building materials industry is undergoing rapid transformation driven by digital economy and technological advancements [34]. - Leading companies are expected to enhance their competitiveness through innovation, green development, and digital transformation [34][35]. - Recommended companies include Beixin Building Materials, China Jushi, and Huaxin Cement [34]. Group 5: Construction - The construction industry is expanding its value chain by exploring upstream raw materials and downstream real estate businesses [9][46]. - Major construction firms are advised to focus on new energy sectors and enhance their overall profitability through diversification [9][46]. Group 6: Public Utilities - The report highlights the green and low-carbon transformation of the power industry, driven by dual carbon goals and energy reforms [9][58]. - It suggests that the transition from traditional power sources to renewable energy will create new growth opportunities for companies in the sector [9][58].

Investment Rating - The report recommends the defense and military industry [10] Core Viewpoints - The market capitalization of central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the military industry accounts for 73.7%, serving as the industry's ballast. The market share of central SOEs has gradually decreased from 96% in 2007 to a low of 65.9% in 2022, but has rebounded due to significant impacts from state-owned enterprise reforms and stable performance expectations [7][45] - The results of military SOE reforms are substantial, and further reforms are expected to deepen. The military industry has undergone three major reforms, leading to the formation of a system dominated by ten military groups, enhancing the resilience and security of the supply chain amid worsening global geopolitical conditions [7][64] - There is an expectation for capital operations, with a potential revaluation of military listed platforms. The restructuring and integration of military groups are seen as effective paths to enhance core capabilities and stabilize the supply chain [8][85] - The management of market capitalization is improving, with 53 military listed companies having released plans to enhance quality and returns as of November 16, 2024 [8][32] - The military SOEs distributed dividends totaling 12.655 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 80.5% of the total dividends in the sector [8][49] Summary by Sections 1. Market Capitalization of Military SOEs - As of November 6, 2024, the market capitalization of military central SOEs is 19,546.99 billion yuan, representing 73.7% of the total military sector market capitalization [7][45] - The military sector's total market capitalization is 26,536.95 billion yuan, accounting for 2.72% of the total A-share market [45] 2. Reform Achievements of Military SOEs - The military industry has seen significant reforms, with the establishment of ten military groups that dominate the industry. The reforms have focused on enhancing research capabilities and optimizing industrial layout [7][64] - The latest round of reforms emphasizes both institutional and functional reforms, aiming to improve core competitiveness and align with national strategic goals [76] 3. Capital Operations and Valuation Restructuring - The report highlights the potential for valuation restructuring of military listed companies, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions to enhance core capabilities [8][85] - The asset securitization rates of military groups vary, with some groups achieving over 50%, indicating significant room for improvement in others [86][89] 4. Market Capitalization Management - Military SOEs are increasingly focusing on market capitalization management, with various companies implementing plans to enhance returns and improve governance structures [8][35] - The report notes that 60 out of 76 central SOEs distributed dividends, with many having room to increase their dividend payout ratios in the future [8][49]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the home appliance industry [5] Core Views - Policy subsidies and platform promotions have significantly boosted home appliance consumption, with a 26.6% YoY increase in total sales during the 2024 Double 11 shopping festival [2] - Home appliance sales reached 193 billion yuan during Double 11, accounting for 16.3% of total sales, with a 26.5% YoY growth [2] - Domestic retail sales of home appliances in October 2024 surged by 39.20% YoY to 99.29 billion yuan, indicating a significant improvement in domestic demand [2] - Air conditioner exports maintained strong growth, with a 39.80% YoY increase in September 2024, while refrigerator and washing machine exports saw slower growth [2] - Real estate market signals are stabilizing, with a 3.41% YoY increase in first-tier city home sales in October 2024, potentially driving future demand for home appliances [3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on white goods leaders benefiting from domestic and export improvements, such as Midea Group (000333.SZ) and Haier Smart Home (600690.SH) [3] - Consider kitchen appliance leaders like Robam Appliances (002508.SZ), which may benefit from industry optimization and real estate market stabilization [3] - Pay attention to cleaning appliance companies like Roborock (688169.SH), which are expanding channels and launching new products [3] Core Portfolio Performance (as of 2024.11.13) - Haier Smart Home (600690.SH) showed a 46.49% YTD increase and a 30.82% relative return [4] - Midea Group (000333.SZ) had a 39.94% YTD increase and a 24.27% relative return [4] - Robam Appliances (002508.SZ) and Roborock (688169.SH) experienced slight declines in monthly performance but maintained positive YTD growth [4] Domestic Demand Analysis - Real estate market policies are gradually taking effect, with a 21.4% YoY increase in completed home sales area from January to October 2024 [26] - The "old-for-new" policy and Double 11 promotions significantly boosted home appliance sales, with a 26.5% YoY increase in home appliance sales during the shopping festival [35] Export Performance - From January to October 2024, home appliance exports reached 3.721 billion units, a 22.2% YoY increase, with export value rising 14.5% YoY to $83.749 billion [41] - Air conditioner exports grew by 39.80% YoY in September 2024, while refrigerator and washing machine exports saw slower growth [46] Profitability and Valuation - The home appliance industry achieved a 4.3% YoY increase in revenue in the first three quarters of 2024, with a 5.41% YoY increase in net profit [53] - The industry's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) was 15.80x as of October 25, 2024, below the historical average of 17.76x [72] Industry Beta and Market Performance - The home appliance industry's beta relative to the Shanghai Composite Index was slightly below 1.00, indicating similar volatility to the broader market [78]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry [8]. Core Insights - The overall industry is bottoming out, with continuous policy support. As of October 2024, the national commodity housing sales area reached 779 million square meters, with a sales amount of 7.69 trillion yuan, representing 84.18% and 79.10% of the same period last year, respectively. The cumulative real estate development investment was 8.63 trillion yuan, at 89.98% of last year's level. Both sales and investment are stabilizing [6][14]. - The number of central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) among leading real estate companies is increasing. In 2023, 15 out of the top 30 real estate companies by equity sales were central SOEs, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.30%, outperforming the overall top 30 companies, which saw a decline of 14.72% [7][55]. - The report highlights a trend of increasing industry concentration, with central SOEs expected to enhance their market position as the industry develops further. The report suggests that the valuations of leading real estate companies are likely to improve due to increasing policy support [9][171]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commodity housing was 779 million square meters, and the sales amount was 7.69 trillion yuan, which are 84.18% and 79.10% of the same period last year, respectively. The cumulative real estate development investment was 8.63 trillion yuan, at 89.98% of last year's level [6][14]. - The report indicates that the sales and investment levels are stabilizing, with policies introduced since September 2024 aimed at supporting the industry [23]. Central SOEs Performance - In 2023, 15 out of the top 30 real estate companies by equity sales were central SOEs, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.30%, significantly outperforming the overall top 30 companies, which experienced a decline of 14.72% [7][55]. - The report notes that central SOEs are increasingly dominating the top rankings, with 4 out of the top 5 companies being central SOEs in 2023 [55]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on central SOEs such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Overseas Development, while also suggesting attention to other central SOEs like China Resources Land and Yuexiu Property [9][171]. - The report emphasizes that central SOEs possess advantages such as strong credit backgrounds, stable operational styles, and relatively low financing costs, which position them favorably in the current market environment [9][171].