Summary of the Conference Call Company and Industry Involved - The conference call pertains to the beauty retail industry, specifically focusing on 德邦 (Debon) and its analysis of the current market trends and opportunities in the beauty sector [1]. Core Points and Arguments - The call begins with a disclaimer emphasizing that the content is intended for Debon Securities Research clients and does not constitute investment advice, urging participants to make independent investment decisions and assume their own risks [1]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call highlights the importance of understanding the beauty retail landscape and the potential implications for investment strategies, although specific data and insights from the report are not detailed in the provided content [1].

所属行业：煤炭 当前价格(元)：3.20 市场表现 -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 34% 甘肃能化 沪深300 甘肃能化（000552.SZ）：短期 经营改善，长期增量可观 省属国企，煤电化一体区域龙头。公司是甘肃省国资系统唯一煤炭上市平台。 2022 年原靖远煤电通过增发方式收购窑煤集团 100%股权，实现优质资产注入， 截至 2023 年底拥有 1624 万吨核定产能及 690 万吨在建产能。煤炭销售结构方 面，根据 2023 年 9 月 25 日公司在互动平台披露，约 40%为长协煤，40%为配焦 煤，20%为市场煤，"现货+长协""焦煤+动力煤"模式下弹性和稳定性兼具。 2024 年一季度，公司实现营收 28.22 亿元，同比下降 10.6%；归母净利润 5.36 亿 元 ， 同 比 下 降 44.01%， 较 2023 年 2/3/4 季 度 归 母 净 利 润 分 别 增 长 66%/91%/201%。 高质量发展凸显长期价值。1）发展规划指明成长方向：公司规划 2025 年末将实 现煤炭产能 2314 万吨、电力装机 300 万千瓦、化工产能 140 万吨；集团层面规 划"十四五 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate sector, indicating expectations for better performance compared to the broader market [6]. Core Insights - The real estate sector has shown significant underperformance, with the sector index down 5.76% in the last week and 16.47% year-to-date, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 17.25 percentage points [3][4]. - Key cities are experiencing a decline in land transaction volumes, with a year-on-year decrease of 34.49% in land sales among the top 100 cities [4]. - The report highlights the ongoing pressure on real estate investments, with a focus on the government's efforts to promote the acquisition of existing housing for affordable housing projects [5]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.14% and the CSI 300 Index by 1.30% during the week of June 17-21, 2024, while the real estate sector underperformed these indices [3]. - Year-to-date, the real estate sector has decreased by 16.47%, significantly trailing the broader market indices [3]. Data Tracking - The total residential land area sold in the top 100 cities was 441.26 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 33.49% [4]. - Sales of commercial housing in 30 major cities totaled 232.74 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 39.55% [4]. Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held a meeting on June 20, 2024, to discuss the acquisition of completed residential properties for use as affordable housing [4]. - Midea Real Estate plans to restructure its business, focusing on property management and commercial operations while divesting its real estate development business [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate companies with quality land reserves in core urban areas, such as Binjiang Group and China Resources Land [5]. - Developers likely to benefit from policies promoting the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing are also highlighted, including Chengjian Development and Yuexiu Property [5]. - Real estate intermediaries that may benefit from government policies encouraging property exchanges are recommended, such as Beike-W and I Love My Home [5].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 房地产 2024 年 06 月 25 日 推动县级以上城市收储,多地成 房地产 交环比改善 房地产行业周报(2024.6.17-6.21) 投资要点: 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 金文曦 资格编号:S0120522100001 邮箱:jinwx@tebon.com.cn 蔡萌萌 资格编号:S0120524050003 邮箱:caimm@tebon.com.cn 市场回顾 研究助理 市场表现 房地产 沪深300 -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2023-06 2023-10 2024-02 资料来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《24 年 1-5 月国家统计局房地产数 据追踪-销售未见明显改善,投资持 续承压》,2024.6.17 2. 《 房 地 产 行 业 周 报 (2024.6.10-6.14)-保障性住房再贷 款持续推进,上海三批次土拍不设房 地联动价》,2024.6.17 3.《房地产行业周报(2024.6.3-6.7) -国常会关注地产"去库存",融资协 调机制持续推进》,2024.6.10 4.《上海 527 楼市新政解读-政 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 机械设备 2024 年 06 月 25 日 机械设备 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 何思源 资格编号:S0120522100004 邮箱:hesy@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 机械设备 沪深300 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 2023-06 2023-10 2024-02 2024-06 相关研究 资料来源:德邦研究所,聚源数据 机械行业周报:华为开发者大会成本 周焦点 投资要点: 市场表现: 6 月 17 日至 6 月 21 日期间,上证指数下跌 1.1375%,沪深 300 指数下跌 1.2964%, 市场行情整体偏弱,申万机械设备指数下跌 1.6921%,表现弱于大盘。 周度观点更新: 当前位置持续看好工程机械板块配置机会,短期关注挖掘机数据底部修复带来的行 业β回升,中长期角度关注工程机械企业规模效应提供的经营弹性。建议关注工程 机械龙头企业【中联重科、三一重工、恒立液压、徐工机械】。 行业重点信息: 【人形机器人】6 月 21 日,华为开发者大会 2024 举办,现场出现了名为"夸父" 的人形机器人,展示了识别物品、问答互动 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 巨子生物(02367.HK) 2024 年 06 月 25 日 买入(维持) 所属行业:美容护理 当前价格(港币):43.40 元 证券分析师 易丁依 资格编号:S0120523070004 邮箱:yidy@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 巨子生物 恒生指数 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2023-06 2023-10 2024-02 | 恒生指数对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | |------------------|--------|--------|-------| | 绝对涨幅 (%) | -11.41 | -7.72 | 3.50 | | 相对涨幅 (%) | -8.28 | -12.52 | -5.77 | | | | | | 相关研究 1.《巨子生物:23 年业绩超预期,静 待妆字新品放量 + 医 美 获 批 》, 2024.3.26 2.《巨子生物:23H1 收入、利润均超 预期,渠道转型+产品矩阵完善,巩固 胶原护肤龙头地位》,2023.8.29 3.《巨子生物(2367.HK)22 年报点 评:2022 年收入、利润略超预期,重 组 ...

1-5 月，全国一般公共预算收入 96912 亿元，同比下降 2.8%，扣除去年同期中小 微企业缓税入库抬高基数、去年年中出台的减税政策翘尾减收等特殊因素影响 后，可比增长 2%左右。其中，国内增值税、国内消费税、企业所得税和个人所 2 / 9 宏观点评 资产配置：稳中求进。股票短期求稳、中期求进，方向上建议把握红利、资源能 源、出口及出海，以及受海外科技事件催化和国内产业政策支持的科技成长方 向。债券方面，在"低利率"和"信用利差极窄化"背景下，信用债需重新思考 股债性价比和厚尾风险，利率债 Q2-Q3 震荡概率较高，在配置力量主导下，10 年国债 Q4 仍有下探至新低可能。大宗商品关注供给收缩确定性强+海外需求定价 的品种，黄金仍有较强的配置价值。 1-5 月，全国一般公共预算支出 108359 亿元，同比增长 3.4%，完成了全年预算 进度的 38.0%，其中社保就业、城乡社区、卫生健康、交通运输分别达到 44.9%、38.2%、37.6%和 35.7%。 2023 年中以来，政策多措并举来防范化解地方政府债务风险，通过摸底不同类型 债务，对不同类型的债务建立不同的分类化解方式，总体风险相对可知、可控。 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 工程机械 2024 年 06 月 24 日 工程机械 优于大市(首次) 证券分析师 何思源 资格编号:S0120522100004 邮箱:hesy@tebon.com.cn 陈瑞基 资格编号:S0120524060002 邮箱:chenrj3@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 工程机械 沪深300 -18% -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 2023-06 2023-10 2024-02 相关研究 1.《海伦哲(300201.SZ)净利润大 幅增长,三年战略定发展基调》, 2024.4.20 2.《海伦哲:国内国际双轮驱动,聚 焦 特 种 高 端 智 能 装 备 制 造 》, 2023.11.30 3.《浙江鼎力:国内高机龙头,进击 海外期待臂式放量》,2023.11.17 CME 六月预测数据:国内需求 整体向好,海外降幅持续收窄 投资要点: 事件:根据 CME 预测,2024 年 6 月挖掘机(含出口)销量 16000 台左右,同比 增长 1.5%。分市场来看:国内市场销量 7300 台,同比增长近 20%。出口市场销 量 8700 台,同比下降近 10%。CME ...

Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is shifting its monetary policy framework, focusing less on total financial growth metrics like social financing and M2, and more on M1 adjustments[1] - The PBOC emphasizes the need for a market-oriented interest rate adjustment mechanism, with a preliminary formation of an interest rate corridor[3] - The central bank plans to include secondary market government bond trading as a monetary policy tool, aiming to manage liquidity without resorting to quantitative easing[3] Market Trends - This week, northbound capital saw a net outflow exceeding 16 billion RMB, attributed to both the impact of the RMB exchange rate and insufficient confidence in the economic fundamentals[1] - Despite the recent outflows, there is potential for orderly foreign capital replenishment as market sentiment improves, contingent on external factors like US-China relations and geopolitical risks[1] Real Estate Market - Following the implementation of new real estate policies, housing prices in 70 major cities have shown a month-on-month decline, with a slight increase in the year-on-year drop[1] - In June, the transaction volume of new residential properties in Shanghai increased by 0.6%, but overall growth remains limited[1] Currency and Exchange Rates - The RMB/USD exchange rate hit a new low for the year, with the onshore and offshore RMB both reaching their lowest levels since mid-November 2023[2] - The PBOC's recent adjustments to the RMB's central parity aimed to alleviate depreciation pressure, with the onshore RMB deviating close to the 2% volatility limit[2] Commodity Market - Oil prices are expected to strengthen in the short term due to OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical instability, with Brent crude rising by 3.2% to over $85.24 per barrel[3] - Gold prices fell by 0.6% to $2,334.7 per ounce, while a recent survey indicated that 29% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest proportion since 2018[3]

2024 年 06 月 23 日 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 港股周三的强势引发市场关注，但后续再度调整，我们认为港股短期可能迎来充分 调整后的反弹，中长期看建议关注结构性机会。6 月 19 日（周三）恒生科技和恒 生指数分别上涨 3.7%和 2.9%，但随后两日连续调整。我们认为港股单日的强势 主要源于两方面因素，一是港股自 5 月下旬以来已经调整了一个月，情绪得到充 分的消化，资金有再度介入博弈的动力。周三国新投资宣布认购了广发、南方、景 顺长城等基金公司旗下在发的首批中证国新港股通央企红利 ETF，释放了资金端 的积极信号；二是政策端给予支持。在第十四届陆家嘴论坛中，香港财经事务及库 务局局长许正宇表示，现在与内地监管机构紧密磋商，落实让内地投资者直接用人 民币，买在港上市的人民币股票，将人民币柜台连到港股通。政策端的预期抬升， 有助于提振市场情绪。但随后两日的连续调整也显示出当前的驱动较为短期，且政 策端的支持还未有具体措施落地，因此市场仅对利好进行了短暂反应。往后看，我 们认为港股在 7 月可能迎来充分调整之后的布局机会，但时机的把握难度较高。 中长期仍需高度关注结构性机会，例如红利 ...