[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 海外市场年度报告 2025 年 12 月 16 日 海外市场年度报告 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 先抑后扬 2026 年海外市场展望 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2026 年美国的经济可能会以中期选举和货币政策为主线，呈现先抑后扬的节奏。 中期选举：博弈加剧，内政为先。美国两党博弈仍在加剧，特朗普能否继续横扫面 临较大不确定性。1938 年以来，总统所在政党在 22 次选举中有 20 次都在众议院 选举中失利，唯二的两次例外都源于特殊情况。从中期选举的角度来看，2026 年 特朗普的政策倾向性有四方面：1）继续给大型科技企业提供税收优惠等方面的支 持。2）可能会针对中小企业和低收入人群进行一定支持，以平衡社会分化的问题。 3）加大力度推动"制造业回流"，但必要性并不高。4）关税政策预计会持续，但 整体力度会降低。整体的思路是在《大美丽法案》的基础 ...

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a volume contraction with the technology index leading the decline, as the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.55% to 3867.92 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.10% to 13112.09 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.77% to 3137.80 points, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards defensive sectors [2][5] - The total market turnover was 1.79 trillion, a decrease of 15.3% from the previous trading day, reflecting a growing cautious sentiment among investors [2][5] Sector Performance - Consumer and financial sectors showed strength, with the dairy index surging by 4.41% following a national medical insurance meeting that raised expectations for increased demand for infant formula [5] - The insurance sector also performed well, with the Insurance Select Index rising by 3.09%, driven by a reduction in risk factors for insurance capital and a shift towards defensive market styles [5] - In contrast, the technology sector faced significant declines, with indices for electronics, communications, computers, media, and machinery dropping between 1.35% and 2.40%, reflecting concerns over a potential saturation in AI computing demand [5] Bond Market - The government bond futures market continued to adjust, with the 30-year contract hitting a new low for the year, closing down 0.99% at 111.53 [10] - The central bank maintained a loose liquidity environment, conducting a net injection of 86 billion through reverse repos, indicating a "short-term tight, long-term loose" operational strategy [10] Commodity Market - Precious metals continued to show strength, with gold futures rising by 1.92% to 983.16 yuan per gram, supported by expectations of further monetary easing following a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [10] - Industrial commodities rebounded, with significant increases in aluminum oxide and coking coal prices, suggesting a potential recovery in sectors previously affected by "involution" competition [10][12] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a balanced allocation in technology and consumer sectors, as the central economic work conference emphasizes the importance of AI and domestic demand expansion [7][15] - The focus on "anti-involution" policies may provide opportunities in industrial commodities, with a recommendation to monitor the implementation of related policies [10][15] Trading Hotspots - Key investment themes include high dividend stocks, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, AI applications, and consumer sectors, with a focus on their respective market dynamics and potential growth drivers [13][15]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 12 月 12 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 相关研究 放量上涨，微盘调整 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 摘要。2025 年 12 月 12 日周五，A 股市场回暖上涨，成交额 2.12 万亿创近一个 月新高；国债期货市场全线调整；商品指数微涨，焦煤延续弱势。 一、市场行情分析 1）股票市场：市场回暖，放量上涨，微盘连续调整 回暖上涨，微盘连续调整。今日 A 股核心指数集体反弹，成长类指数表现更优。 上证指数低开后震荡回升，收盘报 3889.35 点，涨幅 0.41%；深证成指报 13258.33 点，涨幅 0.84%；创业板指收于 3194.36 点，涨幅 0.97%。科创 50 指数表现突 出，上涨 1.74%，或反映硬科技板块情绪升温。 ...

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a significant pullback, with major indices declining. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.70% to 3873.32 points, while the Shenzhen Component dropped by 1.27% to 13147.39 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.41% to 3163.67 points. The overall market saw 4377 stocks decline, representing over 80% of the total [3][6] - The market's trading volume reached 1.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.2% from the previous trading day, indicating a notable profit-taking sentiment among investors [3] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as banking and defense industry showed slight gains, with increases of 0.34% and 0.22% respectively. In contrast, sectors like coal and real estate faced significant declines, reflecting a "policy fulfillment + profit-taking" characteristic [6][7] - The technology sector led the adjustments, while thematic investments in areas like new energy and commercial aerospace saw localized activity, with notable gains in indices related to near-term new stocks and nuclear fusion [6][7] Bond Market - The government bond futures market showed a continued recovery, with all contract maturities rising. The 30-year main contract closed at 113.19 yuan, up 0.45%, while the 10-year contract rose by 0.09% to 108.100 yuan [11] - The liquidity in the interbank market remained ample, with the central bank conducting a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 118.6 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%. Despite a net withdrawal of 62.2 billion yuan, the overall liquidity pressure was low [11] Commodity Market - The commodity market displayed significant divergence, with lithium carbonate and silver showing strength, while coking coal and coke experienced substantial declines. The Nanhua Commodity Index fell by 0.23% [13] - Coking coal has seen a cumulative decline of over 26% since early November, indicating a bearish market driven by supply-demand pressures [13] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a balanced investment approach across technology growth, dividend stocks, and cyclical resources, while emphasizing the importance of monitoring low-valuation and policy-sensitive sectors [13] - In the bond market, a "short-end strong, long-end oscillation" pattern is expected to continue, with a focus on the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference for guidance on fiscal and monetary policy coordination [11][13]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut on December 10, 2025, aligning with market expectations[5] - This marks the third consecutive 25 basis point cut, with internal divisions evident among committee members[5] - The dot plot indicates a potential rate cut in 2026, with the median forecast remaining in the 3.25%-3.5% range, suggesting one cut[5] Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Post-decision, market risk appetite increased, with major U.S. stock indices rising and bond yields declining[5] - The Fed's decision to initiate Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) involves buying $40 billion in short-term Treasury securities over the next 30 days to ensure adequate reserves[5] - The current liquidity environment is expected to remain ample, reducing the likelihood of short-term capital market disruptions[5] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, which could prompt the Fed to tighten policy again[7] - Global economic conditions may weaken, impacting U.S. corporate earnings and subsequently affecting stock markets[7] - Escalation of geopolitical tensions could lead to increased market volatility and risk aversion[7]

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a slight decline on December 10, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23% to 3900.5 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose 0.29% [3][5] - The trading volume in the A-share market was 1.79 trillion yuan, indicating a healthy level despite the overall market adjustment [3][5] - The technology sector remained strong, with active performance in robotics, despite the termination of a significant asset restructuring deal [5][6] Bond Market - The government bond futures market showed a continuous recovery, with all main contracts rising, particularly the 30-year contract which increased by 0.30% to 112.790 yuan [9] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 189.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 110.5 billion yuan into the market [9] - The short-term interest rates, particularly the overnight Shibor, reached a new low since August 2023, indicating a potential easing of monetary policy [9] Commodity Market - The commodity market showed mixed results, with precious metals leading the gains; silver prices rose by 5.44% to 14,373 yuan per kilogram [9][10] - The aluminum market faced a significant decline, with prices dropping by 3.17% due to supply and demand dynamics [10] - The overall performance of industrial commodities remained weak, with several products hitting yearly lows, suggesting insufficient demand [12] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several investment themes, including dividend stocks due to attractive yields, AI applications driven by major tech advancements, and consumer sectors benefiting from currency appreciation [11] - The current market environment is characterized by a balance between policy signals and year-end liquidity, suggesting a diversified investment approach across technology, dividends, and cyclical resources [11][12]

Group 1: Inflation Overview - In November 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%[4] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months[4] - Food prices shifted from a decline of 2.9% to a slight increase of 0.2%, contributing positively to the CPI[4] Group 2: PPI and Industrial Prices - The PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, with the decline slightly widening from the previous month's -2.1%[4] - The mining industry saw a month-on-month price increase of 1.7%, while coal mining prices surged by 4.1% due to winter energy demand[3] - Prices in the raw materials sector fell by 2.9% year-on-year, indicating continued supply pressure in some industries[3] Group 3: Sector Performance - Non-food prices rose by 0.8% year-on-year, with household goods prices increasing by 4.9%[4] - The price of fresh vegetables rebounded significantly, rising by 14.5% year-on-year after nine months of decline[4] - Durable goods prices decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, reflecting weak demand in that segment[5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Expectations suggest that food price declines may continue to narrow, potentially lifting CPI further[5] - Industrial product prices are anticipated to stabilize and improve due to ongoing supply-side optimization and marginal demand recovery[5] - Risks include escalating US-China trade tensions and uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions[5]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 12 月 09 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 A 股小幅调整，商品跌多涨少 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 摘要。2025 年 12 月 9 日周二，A 股市场小幅缩量调整；国债期货市场回暖；商品 期货普遍下跌，工业品延续承压。 一、市场行情分析 图 1：主要行业板块涨跌幅 资料来源：Wind，德邦研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 1）股票市场：缩量分化调整，跌多涨少 缩量分化调整，跌多涨少。今日 A 股市场呈现分化格局，主要指数涨跌互现，科 技成长板块逆势走强，周期与地产链深度调整。上证指数低开后震荡下行，收盘报 3909.52 点，下跌 0.37%；深证成指报 13277.36 点，跌 0.39%；创业板指表现亮 眼 ...

Export Performance - In November 2025, China's export value (in USD) increased by 5.9% year-on-year, reversing the previous month's decline[4] - Exports to the EU surged by 14.8%, while exports to Japan and South Korea rose by 3.2%[4] - Cumulative export growth for electromechanical products and high-tech products was significant, at 8.0% and 6.6% respectively[4] Import Trends - November 2025 saw a 1.9% year-on-year increase in import value (in USD), marking six consecutive months of positive growth[5] - Major contributors to import growth included Brazil (19.4%) and Africa (13.4%), while imports from the US fell by 19.1%[5] - Cumulative import growth for high-tech products and electromechanical products was 9.6% and 5.5% respectively[5] Trade Surplus and Competitiveness - The trade surplus in November 2025 rebounded to $111.68 billion, indicating strong industrial competitiveness[6] - The surplus with the EU and ASEAN increased, while the deficit with Japan and South Korea narrowed significantly[7] - The trade dynamics suggest a growing importance of ASEAN in China's foreign trade landscape[7] Market Outlook - The probability of continued external demand recovery is high, supported by expected improvements in the US economy and the holiday season[8] - The focus in the market is shifting towards financial and technology sectors, driven by recent policy stability following the US-China summit[8] - Risks include potential escalations in US-China tensions and geopolitical crises that could impact trade and financial markets[17]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 宏观点评 1. 政策总基调更加突出"提质增效" 会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效。与 2024 年 12.9 政治局会议相比，表述已由"稳中求进、以进促稳"调整为"稳中求进、提质 增效"，显示宏观政策的基本取向没有变，但战术重点有所调整。去年提出"实 施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充实完善政策工具箱，加强 超常规逆周期调节"，工作的重点在于通过一系列政策"组合拳"，推动宏观经 济企稳向好，逆周期调节成为主要着力方向。今年会议在"继续实施更加积极 的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"的基础上，着重提出"加大逆周期和跨周 期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能"。会议重提跨周期调节，意味着追 求短期经济增速目标的迫切性有所淡化，兼顾中长期结构优化和改革深化的 必要性有所上升。 2. 更加重视"协同"和"集成" 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 何明洋 邮箱：hemy＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 关键词从"以进促稳"到"提质增效" ——12.8 政 ...