[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 神火股份(000933.SZ) 2025 年 03 月 26 日 买入（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 所属行业：有色金属/工业金属 当前价格(元)：18.77 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 神火股份 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 10.14 | 7.46 | 19.34 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 9.97 | 4.87 | 20.68 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《神火股份：回购引导信心，盈利能 力或将改善》，2025.1.5 2.《神火股份：业绩符合预期，中期股 利加强投资回报》， ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 神火股份(000933.SZ) 2025 年 03 月 26 日 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 买入（维持） 所属行业：有色金属/工业金属 当前价格(元)：18.77 证券分析师 翟堃 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 神火股份 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 10.14 | 7.46 | 19.34 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 9.97 | 4.87 | 20.68 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《神火股份：回购引导信心，盈利能 力或将改善》，2025.1.5 2.《神火股份：业绩符合预期，中期股 利加强投资回报》， ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业专题 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《供给端不确定性加深，溴素涨价 有望超预期》，2025.3.25 2.《SAF 国内应用试点大步推进，新 疆 煤 化 工 进 入 高 速 发 展 期 》， 2025.3.23 3. 《 关 注 聚 氨 酯 涨 价 机 会 》， 2025.3.16 4.《宝丰能源(600989.SH)：价差修复 产能释放，看好公司长期成长！》， 2025.3.12 5.《——三氯蔗糖行业专题报告-供 给协同默契空前，内外共振需求稳 健》，2025.3.10 从政策端看民爆行业发展方向 ——民爆行业系列深度① [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 基础化工 2025 年 03 月 26 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 引入：2025 年 2 月 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 2025 年 03 月 25 日 固定收益点评 证券分析师 吕品 资格编号：S0120524050005 邮箱：lvpin＠tebon.com.cn 严伶怡 资格编号：S0120524110003 邮箱：yanly＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 苏鸿婷 邮箱：suht＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 固定收益点评 MLF 历史使命或结束，做多窗 口可能较短 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 3 月 24 日下午 5 点，央行发布 3 月 MLF 招标公告：为保持银行体系流动性充裕， 更好满足不同参与机构差异化资金需求，自本月起中期借贷便利（MLF）将采用固 定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展操作。2025 年 3 月 25 日（周二），中 国人民银行将开展 4500 亿元 MLF 操作，期限为 1 年期。当日尾盘利率加速下行， 这也是以往罕见的提前预告 MLF 续作规模，有何含义？ 第一，量的角度来看属于紧平衡。本次 MLF 投放金额 4500 亿，本周政府债净发 行规模 6219 亿，较 ...

优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 王华炳 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 基础化工 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 王友舜 邮箱：wangys5＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 29% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 基础化工 沪深300 供给端不确定性加深，溴素涨价有望 超预期 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 事件：据百川盈孚，2025 年 3 月 25 日，溴素市场均价为 28000 元/吨，较上一交 易日大幅上涨 3000 元/吨，涨幅 12.0%，较 2024 年同期上涨约 9000 元/吨。 点评： 基础化工 2025 年 03 月 25 日 图 1：春节后溴素价格加速攀升 图 2：溴素下游以阻燃剂应用为主 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 供给侧：我国溴素对外依存度高，红海局势升温或波及进口。我国溴素资源十分短 缺，主要分布在山东省莱州湾的地下卤水中。近年来，山东卤水水位和品位下降 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 王友舜 邮箱：wangys5＠tebon.com.cn 供给侧：我国溴素对外依存度高，红海局势升温或波及进口。我国溴素资源十分短 缺，主要分布在山东省莱州湾的地下卤水中。近年来，山东卤水水位和品位下降很 快，有效产能不断收缩，因此我国溴素高度依赖进口，进口量由 2021 年的 6.3 万 吨提升至 2024 年的 7.7 万吨，依存度由 47.3%提升至 56.8%。海外角度看，死海 是世界上溴元素含量最丰富的地方之一，湖水中溴浓度高达 2000-12000ppm，远 高于海水的 65ppm。依托死海溴资源，以色列化工集团、约旦溴业公司、以及美 国雅保三者合计溴素产量占到全球总产量的 72%以上，供给高度集中。据新华社 报道，近期红海局势再升温，涉及红海、阿拉伯海、曼德海峡和亚丁湾的航线或受 影响。地缘政治风险下，以色列出口船只绕行好望角成为缓解原航线受阻的重要方 式。但航程延长增加了供应链压力，同时提高了货运和 ...

煤炭 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 煤炭开采 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《煤炭周报：需求预期回暖，价 格震荡反弹》，2025.3.9 2.《煤炭周报：协会倡议书出台， 静待需求发力》，2025.3.2 3.《煤炭周报：政策&基本面共振， 看好煤焦钢估值修复》，2025.2.23 4.《煤炭周报："金三银四"旺季 将至，关注煤焦钢弹性》， 2025.2.16 5.《煤炭周报：对美煤炭加征关税 支撑煤价，持续看好煤焦钢春季行 情》，2025.2.9 煤炭周报：预期底部夯实，静待 需求复苏 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 煤炭开采 2025 年 03 月 23 日 投资建议：2024 年 9 月政治局会议开启经济支持新篇章，结合近两年供给持续弱 化，煤炭板块基本面底部再度确认，市 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with total operating income for 2024 reaching 156.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.69%. Net profit for the same period was 22.37 billion yuan, up 95.21% year-on-year [6][7] - The increase in alumina prices and stable electrolytic aluminum prices are the main drivers for the company's performance improvement. The average price of alumina in Shandong reached 5,705 yuan per ton by the end of 2024, a 39% increase year-on-year [6] - The company is expanding its green aluminum production capacity, with a high operating rate of 99.32% in Yunnan's electrolytic aluminum production [6] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio, with a total dividend of 1.61 HKD per share for the year, reflecting a payout ratio of approximately 63%, up from around 50% in previous years [6] Financial Data Summary - Total shares outstanding: 9,463.89 million shares [6] - Market capitalization: 147.60 billion HKD [6] - Revenue forecast for 2025: 149.53 billion yuan [7] - Net profit forecast for 2025: 22.03 billion yuan [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025: 2.33 yuan [7] - Gross margin forecast for 2025: 27.19% [7] - Return on equity (ROE) forecast for 2025: 16.97% [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with total operating income for 2024 reaching 156.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.69%. The pre-tax profit was 32.80 billion yuan, up 106.4%, and net profit was 22.37 billion yuan, reflecting a 95.21% increase [6] - The rise in alumina prices and stable electrolytic aluminum prices are the main drivers for the company's performance improvement. The average price of alumina in Shandong reached 5,705 yuan per ton by the end of 2024, a 39% increase year-on-year [6] - The company is actively expanding its green aluminum production capacity, with a high utilization rate of 99.32% in Yunnan's electrolytic aluminum production [6] - The company has increased its dividend payout, with a total dividend of 1.61 HKD per share for the year, resulting in a payout ratio of approximately 63%, up from around 50% in previous years [6] - The company is expected to maintain strong profitability and social contributions as the proportion of green electricity aluminum increases, with projected net profits of 22 billion, 24.3 billion, and 24.9 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [6] Financial Data Summary - Total shares outstanding: 9,463.89 million shares [6] - Market capitalization: 147,604.72 million HKD [6] - Total assets: 247,467.75 million HKD [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 2.36 yuan, with a gross margin of 27% [7] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 is estimated at 14.33% [7] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 20.75% for 2024 [7]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the industry, suggesting that the expected overall return is within -10% to +10% of the benchmark index [19]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current interest rate during the March meeting, with a 99% probability of pausing rate cuts, reflecting a cautious economic outlook [6][11]. - The report highlights that the labor market is showing signs of weakness, with potential adjustments in unemployment rates due to increasing layoffs, which could impact economic growth and inflation expectations [4][6]. - The focus of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be on the interest rate outlook and economic projections, particularly the dot plot indicating potential rate cuts later in the year [6][7]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report notes that while the U.S. economy remains resilient, there are signs of softening in certain data points, which could lead to a downturn in economic performance and affect stock market earnings [6][7]. - The potential for 2-3 rate cuts in 2025 is highlighted, but the exact timing and frequency remain uncertain [6][7]. Market Impact - The report anticipates that market volatility will remain high due to unpredictable political actions and macroeconomic uncertainties, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to stabilize market expectations [7][8]. - It is suggested that small-cap growth sectors may have greater upward potential compared to larger indices like the Dow and Nasdaq [5]. Interest Rate Projections - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a strong likelihood of maintaining the current interest rate, with expectations for future rate cuts becoming more pronounced as the year progresses [11][12]. - The report emphasizes that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may rise in the near term, reflecting broader market adjustments [7].