Market Overview - The A-share market continued its upward trend, with trading volume returning to 2 trillion yuan, indicating significant inflow of new capital [2][3] - The core indices of the A-share market showed strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,924.08 points, up 0.54%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.39% to 13,329.99 points [3] Sector Performance - The technology sector led the gains, with indices for communication, electronics, and computer industries rising by 4.67%, 2.51%, and 1.92% respectively, driven by strong demand for AI hardware [5] - The financial sector remained robust, with the non-bank financial index increasing by 1.89%, supported by regulatory signals aimed at enhancing broker capital space and leverage limits [5] - The dividend index showed weakness, with declines in various indices indicating a persistent improvement in market risk appetite [5] Economic Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau's meeting on December 8 highlighted a shift in economic work focus for 2026, emphasizing quality and efficiency over mere stability [6] - The report anticipates a more pragmatic economic growth target for 2026, with a maintained narrow deficit rate around 4% and limited expansion of debt scale [6] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market exhibited a mixed performance, with long-term futures showing significant adjustments while short to medium-term bonds remained stable [7] - The central bank's net injection of 147 billion yuan into the market indicates a continued loose monetary environment, although short-term interest rates saw slight increases [7] Commodity Market Trends - The commodity index declined, with significant drops in the black series commodities, particularly coking coal and coke, reflecting weak downstream demand [7] - The precious metals sector, however, showed strength, with silver prices rising due to ongoing central bank gold purchases and weakening U.S. economic data [9] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The report suggests a balanced investment approach across technology growth, dividend stocks, and cyclical resources, given the current market conditions and policy signals [10] - In the bond market, a focus on short to medium-term bonds is recommended, while monitoring fiscal and monetary policy developments [10] - For commodities, attention should be paid to supply-side changes and policy statements, as industrial products continue to show weak performance [10]

证券研究报告 宏观经济 2025年12月8日 德邦证券 市场双周观察（第一期） 证券分析师 程 强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 薛 威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 摘要 过去两周的全球市场主要受流动性层面的影响，特别是FOMC议息会议即将在12月10日进行和美联 储新主席人选即将公布的背景下。 12月FOMC降息的概率在过去两周逐步升高，这也带来了美元指数的弱势和全球风险资产的普遍强势。 日央行行长对于可能加息的言论引发了市场波动，也带来了日元汇率的反弹和全球发达市场无风险 利率的普遍回升，给全球风险资产带来了一定的扰动。 整体来看，过去两周全球股市与商品表现不错，发达市场国债利率迎来回升，美元弱势带来非美 货币涨多跌少。 股市：全球迎普涨行情，其中科技板块强势领涨；A股通信、国防军工领涨； 债市：联储降息预期抬升，发达市场无风险利率回升；30Y中债国债利率显著攀升，信用利差走扩； 商品：全球大宗 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 12 月 05 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 大金融强势领涨 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 摘要。2025 年 12 月 5 日周五，A 股市场午后在大金融带领下强势上涨，成交额 放量至 1.7 万亿以上；国债期货市场震荡回暖；商品指数微涨，工业品延续偏弱。 一、市场行情分析 1）股票市场：放量上涨，大金融领涨 午后拉升，主要指数全线上行。今日 A 股核心指数集体走强，金融、成长与周期 板块形成合力，推动市场情绪持续回暖。上证指数低开高走后震荡回升，午后在金 融带动下突破 3900 点整数关口，收盘报 3902.81 点，涨幅 0.70%；深证成指表现 更强，全天维持上行态势，收报 13147.68 点，涨幅 1.08%；创业板指收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yongtai Energy (600157.SH) [2] Core Views - The company has initiated a share repurchase plan, aiming to buy back A-shares worth between 300 million to 500 million RMB, which is expected to enhance market confidence and optimize the capital structure [9] - Yongtai Energy has been included in the CSI A500 Index, highlighting its leading position and investment value, which may attract more long-term investors [9] - The construction progress of the Haizetan coal mine is ahead of schedule, with expected production capacity reaching 10 million tons per year by 2027 [9] - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 348 million, 972 million, and 1.524 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a slight adjustment from previous forecasts [9] Financial Data Summary - Total shares outstanding: 21,817.76 million [7] - Current price: 1.61 RMB [2] - Market capitalization: 35,999.31 million RMB [7] - Revenue forecast for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027: 28,357 million, 25,143 million, 27,193 million, and 28,714 million RMB respectively [7] - Net profit forecast for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027: 1,561 million, 348 million, 972 million, and 1,524 million RMB respectively [7] - Gross margin for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027: 25.1%, 19.7%, 23.0%, and 24.2% respectively [7] - Return on equity for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027: 3.3%, 0.7%, 2.0%, and 3.1% respectively [7]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a weak sentiment with major indices showing a general decline, particularly in the growth sectors which are adjusting more significantly than value sectors [3][6] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3878.00 points, down 0.51%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.78% to 12955.25 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.12% to 3036.79 points [3] Stock Market Analysis - The market lacks a clear leading sector, with significant fluctuations observed in the commercial aerospace sector, influenced by recent rocket launch news [6][10] - Defensive sectors and some cyclical stocks are showing resilience against the overall market decline, suggesting a rotation in investment strategies [6][7] Bond Market Insights - The bond futures market is characterized by a clear differentiation in performance across maturities, with long-term bonds underperforming while mid to short-term bonds are stabilizing [10] - The 30-year bond contract saw a decline of 0.26%, while the 10-year bond contract increased by 0.06%, indicating a mixed sentiment in the bond market [10] Commodity Market Trends - Financial commodities are outperforming industrial commodities, with the Nanhua Commodity Index down 0.28% while industrial products are under pressure [10][11] - The industrial product index has decreased by 7.19% since the beginning of the year, reflecting weak demand and a contraction in manufacturing activity [10] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a balanced allocation between technology and dividend stocks to hedge against sector rotation risks [7][12] - Focus on structural opportunities in undervalued defensive sectors and industries aligned with the "15th Five-Year Plan" trends [7][12] Recent Trading Hotspots - Key investment themes include dividend stocks for their attractive yields, AI applications driven by major tech advancements, and consumer sectors benefiting from currency appreciation [12] - The brokerage sector is highlighted due to active trading volumes and potential changes in trading regulations [12]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 3900 points, specifically at 3914.01 points, reflecting a 0.65% rise on December 1, 2025 [3][5] - The total market turnover reached 1.89 trillion yuan, marking an 18.3% increase compared to the previous trading day, indicating a broad recovery in market sentiment [3][5] Sector Performance - Technology and cyclical sectors led the market gains, with the consumer electronics sector showing notable performance. Key products like smart speakers and TWS headphones saw increases of 5.86% and 3.37%, respectively [5] - The precious metals sector also performed well, with international silver prices reaching a historical high and copper prices hitting a yearly peak, contributing to a 2.86% rise in the non-ferrous metals sector [8] Policy and Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the market is in a policy preheating phase, with expectations for the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference to potentially signal stronger economic stimulus measures [5][7] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has risen to over 80%, which could enhance global liquidity and risk appetite [5][7] Investment Strategy - The report recommends maintaining a balanced allocation between technology and dividend-paying stocks to hedge against sector rotation risks [11][13] - Key investment themes include AI applications, consumer spending, and brokerage firms, with a focus on monitoring market turnover and potential changes in trading regulations [11][13] Bond Market Insights - The bond market is expected to continue its oscillating trend, with short-term government bonds showing strength while long-term bonds may experience slight adjustments due to profit-taking [8][13] - The central bank's liquidity management and the evolution of credit risks in the real estate sector are highlighted as critical factors to watch [8][13] Commodity Market Trends - The commodity index rose by 0.93%, with significant gains in precious metals and basic metals driven by macroeconomic factors such as the anticipated Fed rate cut and a weaker dollar [8][14] - The report notes a rebound in the black coal sector after previous declines, with coking coal prices increasing by 2.73% [14]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略月报 2025 年 12 月 01 日 全球策略月报 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 海外市场：货币政策方面，美联储内部分化加剧，12 月是否降息存在不确定性。 当前 CME 模型预期 12 月降息的概率重新回升至 80%以上，但我们认为 12 月或 明年 1 月降息对于实体经济的影响差异并不大，耐心等待 FOMC 会议中的指引或 是更好的选择。产业方面，谷歌 Gemini 3 或重塑 AI 产业格局，行业内部或迎来 分化。 展望 12 月，我们认为美股 AI 板块整体情绪或阶段性放缓，美股整体缺乏明确方 向，或维持高位震荡。截止 11 月末，美国科技七巨头的市值已经占到标普 500 的 33%，占纳斯达克指数的 48%。资本开支是驱动美股 AI 板块持续上行的重要因 素，但我们认为这个逻辑已经出现松动迹象，原因有三：第一，市场或担忧于资 本开支增速放缓。从七巨头中英伟达的下游公司来看，2025 年微软、谷歌、亚马 逊和 Meta 的资本开支占经营活动 ...

Manufacturing Sector - November Manufacturing PMI increased to 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the previous year's level[3] - Production index at 50.0%, indicating slight improvement in production activities[4] - New orders index at 49.2%, showing marginal recovery but still below the expansion threshold[4] - Small enterprises PMI rose significantly by 2.0 percentage points to 49.1%, indicating temporary relief from operational pressures[3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - Non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from last month, indicating a slowdown in expansion[4] - Service sector PMI at 49.5%, reflecting weakened activity in the service industry[4] - New orders index for non-manufacturing at 45.7%, down 0.3 percentage points, indicating insufficient demand recovery[4] - Business activity expectations index at 56.2%, showing a slight increase, suggesting some optimism for future operations[4] Economic Outlook - Current economic conditions show weak supply and demand, with structural divergence in economic performance persisting[3] - Future economic recovery may depend on policy directions from upcoming political meetings and external financial environment improvements[3]

Market Analysis - The A-share market continues to show a shrinking rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3888.60 points, up 0.34%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.85% to 12984.08 points, indicating a positive overall market sentiment with 4122 stocks rising and 1187 falling [4][6]. - The market is experiencing a "slow bull" trend, with expectations of policy catalysts and liquidity improvements potentially pushing the market higher in December [8]. Bond Market - The government bond futures market is in a state of fluctuation, with the 30-year contract closing up 0.05% at 114.49 yuan, while the 10-year contract saw a slight increase of 0.03% to 107.940 yuan [11]. - The central bank's liquidity remains ample despite a net withdrawal of funds, with a focus on upcoming economic meetings that may influence fiscal policy and long-term interest rates [11][14]. Commodity Market - The commodity index rose by 0.64%, with the Shanghai silver contract reaching a new high of 12727 yuan per kilogram, driven by a favorable macroeconomic environment and expectations of continued central bank gold purchases [9][11]. - Precious metals are expected to maintain strong performance, with potential upward movement if upcoming economic data is weak or geopolitical risks increase [11][14]. Trading Hotspots - Key sectors include dividend stocks, AI applications, and consumer goods, with a focus on market recovery and potential policy stimuli [13]. - The report highlights a cautious market sentiment with shrinking trading volumes, indicating a potential shift in investment strategies towards more conservative positions [13][14].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.29% at 3875.26 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to 12875.19 points. The ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index also saw declines after early gains, with the ChiNext Index down 0.44% and the STAR 50 Index down 0.33% [3][6] - The total market turnover was 1.72 trillion, a decrease of 4.1% from the previous trading day, indicating a marginal decline in market activity [3][6] Sector Performance - The leading sectors included cyclical industries such as basic chemicals, oil and petrochemicals, light manufacturing, coal, banking, and utilities, with respective increases of 1.22%, 1.06%, 1.04%, 1.00%, 0.52%, and 0.47%. The lithium battery electrolyte index surged by 6.25% [6] - Major companies in the packaging paper sector announced price increases for their products, with cultural paper prices rising by 200 yuan/ton and packaging paper prices increasing by around 50 yuan/ton [6] - The technology sector showed relative weakness, with the media index dropping 1.39%, reflecting potential profit-taking pressures after recent rebounds in tech growth stocks [6][7] Bond Market Analysis - The government bond futures market exhibited a mixed performance, with the 10-year contract closing down 0.06% at 107.895 yuan, while the 2-year contract rose 0.01% to 102.390 yuan [10] - The interbank market maintained a stable and slightly loose liquidity environment, with the central bank conducting a net liquidity injection of 564 billion yuan through reverse repos [10] Commodity Market Insights - The South China commodity index rose by 0.36%, driven by strong performance in precious metals, particularly platinum, which saw a first-day increase of 6.25% [10][11] - The agricultural sector saw price increases in consumer products like eggs and palm oil, attributed to seasonal demand and previous price declines [11] Investment Themes - Recent investment themes include high dividend yield stocks for defensive positioning, AI applications driven by major tech firms, and consumer sectors benefiting from currency appreciation and market style shifts [12] - The report suggests a cautious approach to the market, focusing on low-valuation cyclical stocks and high-dividend defensive sectors while awaiting adjustments in the tech sector [7][12]