2024年09月21 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 社会服务行业·周观点 中秋旅游市场平稳有序，国庆有望迎来出境高峰 本周行情：社会服务（申万）板块指数周涨跌幅为2.02%，在申万 一级行业涨跌幅中排名8/31。 � 各基准指数周涨跌幅情况为：创业板指（-0.19%）、深证成指（- 1.81%）、沪深300（-2.23%）、上证指数（-2.23%）、社会服务 (-3.71%)。 � 子行业涨跌幅排名：教育（2.47%）、酒店餐饮（0.82%）、体育 II（0.43%）、旅游及景区（0.42%）、专业服务（-0.08%）。 � � 个股涨跌幅排名前五: 实朴检测(13.11%)、中公教育(10.87%)、 豆神教育(8.40%)、谱尼测试(7.44%)、零点有数(7.39%)。 个股涨跌幅排名后五：中纺标(-4.63%)、外服控股(-4.09%)、科锐 国际(-3.71%)、天纺标(-3.20%)、安车检测(-3.11%)。 � 核心观点: 2024年中秋节假期，全国文化和旅游市场总体平稳有序。据文 化和旅游部数据中心测算,全国国内出游1.07亿人次,按可比口 径较2019年同期增长6.3%；国内游客出游总 ...

2024年09月20日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 非银金融 非银行业周报（2024 年第三十二期）: 监管助推打造国际一流投资银行 市场表现: 本期（2024.9.16-2024.9.20）非银(申万)指数+1.92%，行业排名 11/31, 券商 Ⅱ指数+1.42%，保险Ⅱ指数+2.52%; 上证综指+1.21%,深证成指+1.15%,创业板指+0.09%。 个股涨跌幅排名前五位:九鼎投资(+29.17%)、新力金融(+16.82%)、仁东控 股（+7.69%）、香溢融通（+6.67%）、锦龙股份（+5.81%）; 个股涨跌幅排名后五位：天茂集团（-21.41%）、天风证券（-7.74%）、华铁应急 (-2.53%)、国海证券（-0.66%）、长江证券（-0.60%）。 (注:去除 ST 及退市股票) 核心观点: 证券: 市场层面,本周,证券板块上涨 1.42%,跑赢沪深 300指数 0.10pct,跑赢上证综 指数 0.21pct。当前券商板块 PB 估值为 1.03 倍,位于历史低位。 本周,9月19日,美联储宣布将基准利率目标范围降至4.75%至5%,同日,A股 市场放量拉升，三大股指集体上涨 ...

2024年09月20日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 计算机 ◆ 信创:政府+行业应用全面推广取得积极进展 报告摘要 ◆ 全球信息系统安全事件频发,信创产品基础保障作用明显 据央视新闻客户端 9 月 18 日消息,黎巴嫩公共卫生部最新更正伤亡人数称,当地 时间 9月17日下午,黎巴嫩全国多地发生的寻呼机爆炸事件已确认造成9人死亡,约 2750 人受伤。此前,7月19日 CrowdStrike 公司的安全软件更新引发"全球大宕机", 微软视窗系统出现"蓝屏"致航空、医疗、传媒、金融、零售、物流等多个行业受到影 响,微软估计 CrowdStrike 的更新影响到 850 万台 Windows 设备。然而,我国由于 政企及关键行业用户已可以选择自主品牌的电子信息产品,在微软设备大规模宕机事件 中并未受到波及。随着现代信息技术的快速发展,减少外部依赖、实现核心信息技术 自主可控，是保障社会基础信息系统安全运行的基本保障。 ◆ 安全可靠测评结果推动信创产品市场化、规模化、常态化应用，相关 信创产品逐步进入市场充分竞争阶段 当前,中国信息安全测评中心已发布两期安全可靠测评结果。通过对产品及其研发 单位的核心技术、安全 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [3][56]. Core Insights - The report highlights that after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, there is an expectation for improved consumer sentiment, particularly in sectors with strong consumption attributes like pet food [3][8]. - The report notes a recent adjustment in the pig market following the Mid-Autumn Festival, with a national average price of 18.62 yuan/kg as of September 20, reflecting a decrease of 3.2% from before the holiday and 6.8% from the beginning of the month [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the pet food sector, projecting a compound annual growth rate of 17% for pet staple food, 15% for nutritional products, and 25% for snacks by 2026 [8][16]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenyuan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery sector decreased by 3.26%, ranking 29th out of 31 industries [1][3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.05%, and the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.94% [1]. Livestock Industry - The average daily slaughter volume for sample enterprises was 156,114 heads, a week-on-week increase of 9.02% [3]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter was 125.97 kg, showing a slight week-on-week increase [3]. Pet Food Sector - The report identifies leading domestic pet food companies such as Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong Co., and Pei Ti Co. as key investment targets due to their strong market positions and growth potential [3][16]. - The pet food industry is expected to maintain rapid growth, supported by brand strategies and market expansion efforts by leading companies [8][16]. Grain and Crop Industry - The report discusses the expected increase in global wheat supply and consumption for the 2024/25 period, with a projected supply increase of 1.5 million tons [14]. - It also notes adjustments in global rice supply and demand, with an increase in supply by 300,000 tons due to higher initial stocks in India [14]. Company Insights - The report mentions that Muyuan Foods aims to achieve a breeding cost of 13 yuan/kg by the end of the year, reflecting a continuous decline in costs [22]. - Dongrui Co. has expanded its scale and secured a quota of over 200,000 heads for supply to Hong Kong [26].

联系电话：010-59219558 传真：010-59562637 2024年09月20 E 证券研究报告|行业研究|军工行业深度报告 国防军工 投资评级 增持 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------| | | | | | | | | | | | 高端锻铸行业深度报告:锻大国重器,铸国防长城 | | | 维持评级 | | 报告摘要 | | 行业走势图 | | | ◆ 高端锻铸优势显著，是高端装备关键零部件制造的主流工艺 | | | | | 高端锻铸工艺主要是指面向高端装备难加工材料零部件高效制造 | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - Humanoid robots are entering a critical phase of commercialization, with significant advancements in AI technology enabling their practical applications. Major tech companies like Tesla, OpenAI, Nvidia, and Samsung are actively investing in this sector, indicating a competitive landscape [2][14] - The global demand for humanoid robots is projected to reach 2 million units by 2030, corresponding to a market potential exceeding 570 billion yuan. The industry is expected to transition through three stages: initial factory applications, broader manufacturing integration, and eventual household adoption [2][29] - Key components of humanoid robots include execution systems (with a focus on screws, motors, and reducers), perception systems (utilizing various sensors), and control systems (primarily relying on self-developed algorithms) [2][3] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots: Dawn of a New Era - Humanoid robots are seen as a prime vehicle for AI technology to enter the physical world, with significant developments in general models enhancing their capabilities. The industry is poised for initial commercialization, with Tesla's Optimus robot leading the charge [2][14] Execution Systems - The flexibility of humanoid robots is largely determined by their hardware, with critical components such as screws, motors, and reducers accounting for over 50% of costs. The report highlights the urgent need to reduce costs in these areas, particularly screws, which currently represent 23.4% of total costs [2][3] Perception Systems - Sensors play a crucial role in enabling robots to perceive their environment, with the current cost of sensors making up approximately 24.7% of the total. Key sensors include torque sensors, visual sensors, and tactile sensors, with advancements expected to drive industry trends [2][3] Control Systems - The control system acts as the "brain" of the robot, requiring tailored designs to meet specific task demands. The report emphasizes the importance of low power consumption, high computing power, and high integration in control systems, with a trend towards self-developed algorithms [2][3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific investment opportunities within the humanoid robot sector, including Tier 1 suppliers, screw manufacturers, sensor companies, reducer manufacturers, motor producers, and domestic complete machine manufacturers [3]

Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 50 basis points (BP) to a target range of 4.75%-5.00%[2] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2024 was raised by 0.4 percentage points (PCTS) to 4.4%[3] - The GDP growth forecast for 2024 was reduced to 2.0%[3] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The PCE inflation forecast for 2024 was revised down from 2.6% to 2.3%, a decrease of 0.3 PCTS[4] - Core PCE inflation forecast for 2024 was adjusted down from 2.8% to 2.6%, a reduction of 0.2 PCTS[4] - The long-term federal funds rate forecast was increased from 2.8% to 2.9%[4] Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the rate cut, U.S. stock indices initially rose but later fell due to hawkish comments from Powell[2] - The market anticipates an additional 75 BP rate cut within the year, with a majority of officials suggesting only 1-2 more cuts of 25 BP each[5][12] - Risks of overly optimistic market expectations regarding future rate cuts were highlighted, indicating potential volatility in capital markets[5]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate from 5.25%-5.50% to 4.75%-5.00%[3] - This marks the first rate cut since the tightening cycle began in March 2022[3] - The Fed maintained a redemption scale of $250 billion for U.S. Treasury securities and $35 billion for agency debt and MBS[3] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The Fed revised down its GDP growth forecast for 2024 to 2.0%[6] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2024 was raised by 0.4 percentage points to 4.4%[6] - The PCE inflation forecast for 2024 was lowered from 2.6% to 2.3%, a reduction of 0.3 percentage points[6] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the rate cut, U.S. stock indices initially rose, with the Nasdaq gaining over 1% during trading[3] - However, after hawkish comments from Powell, major U.S. indices closed lower, and the dollar index rebounded[3] Group 4: Future Policy Uncertainty - Powell indicated that the Fed's future policy path remains uncertain, with no preset course for rate adjustments[7] - The dot plot showed that 9 out of 19 officials expect cumulative rate cuts of no more than 75 basis points in 2024, while 10 officials anticipate cuts of at least 100 basis points[7]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts can be categorized into recessionary and preventive cuts based on the economic context[3] - The current economic indicators suggest that the upcoming rate cut is more likely to be preventive, as the U.S. economy shows signs of soft landing despite some pressures[3][59] - Historical data indicates that during preventive rate cuts, U.S. stock markets tend to perform positively in the month leading up to the cut, with a 100% success rate[3] Group 2: Impact on A-shares - A-shares are expected to be indirectly influenced by the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, primarily driven by domestic economic fundamentals[4][8] - Historically, A-shares have outperformed emerging markets during Fed rate cuts, indicating strong allocation value[8] - A-shares tend to lag behind Hong Kong stocks post-rate cuts, but often outperform emerging markets[3][4] Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The normalization of the U.S. Treasury yield curve suggests a decrease in recession risks, which may positively impact market sentiment[3][72] - The Chinese government is expected to continue implementing macroeconomic policies to stimulate growth, which could lead to a recovery in A-shares[8] - Consumer sectors such as food and beverage, and beauty care are projected to outperform the market in the months following a rate cut, based on historical performance[8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Taihe New Materials (002254) is upgraded to "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's revenue for H1 2024 reached 1.95 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.55% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 117 million yuan, a significant decrease of 45.4% [1] - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 990 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.0%, with a net profit of 92 million yuan, up 16.2% year-on-year and 267% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The report notes that while the spandex industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, it is also facing a peak in production capacity, leading to a decline in profitability for some companies [1] - The report indicates that the company's gross margin improved to 18.1% in the reporting period, despite a decline in the spandex business gross margin due to falling product prices [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.95 billion yuan and a net profit of 117 million yuan, with basic EPS of 0.13 yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 40 million yuan [1] - In Q2 2024, the company recorded a revenue of 990 million yuan and a net profit of 92 million yuan, with a gross margin of 18.1% [1][4] Industry Analysis - The spandex industry is at a peak production capacity, with an increase of 55,000 tons in capacity in H1 2024 and additional capacity expected in H2 2024 [1] - The report mentions that the price of upstream raw material PETMG has declined, leading to a downward trend in spandex prices [1] Future Outlook - The report projects that the company will achieve revenues of 4.22 billion yuan in 2024, 5.04 billion yuan in 2025, and 6.04 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.5%, 19.8%, and 39.8% respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 314 million yuan in 2024, 409 million yuan in 2025, and 572 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of -5.77%, 30.42%, and 39.76% respectively [4]