证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 周 报 ——机械行业周报（2024.12.16-2024.12.20） [行业: 日期: Table_Industry] 机械 shzqdatemark 2024年12月25日 | --- | --- | |-------------------------|----------------------| | | | | [Table_Author] 分析师 : | 刘阳东 | | Tel: | 021-53686144 | | E-mail: | liuyangdong@shzq.com | | SAC 编号 : | S0870523070002 | | 分析师 : | 王亚琪 | | Tel: | 021- 53686472 | | E-mail: | wangyaqi@shzq.com | [Table_QuotePic] 最近一年行业指数与沪深 300 比较 -22% -16% -10% -4% 2% 9% 15% 21% 27% 12/23 03/24 05/24 07/24 10/24 12/24 机械设备 沪深300 [Table_Rating] 增持（维持） [ ...

智元机器人开启商用量产，人形机器人产业化持续推进。1）12 月 16 投资建议 行业周报 风险提示 宏观经济下行风险、下游需求不及预期、原材料价格波动等。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------|---------------|---------------|-------|----------|----------------------------------------|---------| | | 排序 股票简称 周涨跌幅 | 涨幅前十 \n | 周换手率 排序 | | | 跌幅前十 \n股票简称 周涨跌幅 周换手率 | | | 1 | 克劳斯 | 46.58% | 42.13% | 1 | 东方智造 | -30.05% | 129.33% | | 2 | 佳力图 | 36.27% | 85.29% | 2 | 日上集团 | -28.76% | 103.43% | | 3 | 实朴检测 | 23.90% | 150.30% | 3 | 巨轮智能 | -22.00% | 111 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [4][71]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the supply-demand balance in the refrigerant sector is expected to improve, leading to a potential upward trend in prices. It suggests focusing on companies such as Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. [55]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of the chemical fiber sector, recommending attention to Huafeng Chemical, New Fengming, and Taihe New Materials [55]. - Other sectors of interest include tire manufacturing and agricultural chemicals, with specific companies recommended for investment [55]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - In the past week (December 16-22), the basic chemical index decreased by 3.37%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.23 percentage points, ranking 19th among all sectors [42][53]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included non-metallic materials (1.75%), viscose (1.14%), and rubber additives (1.11%) [64]. Chemical Product Price Trends - The report lists the top five products with the highest weekly price increases: acrylic acid (9.96%), succinic anhydride (9.92%), butanone (7.59%), international butadiene (7.27%), and epoxy chloropropane (5.41%) [67]. - Conversely, the top five products with the largest weekly price declines included ammonium nitrate (-13.04%), monoammonium phosphate (-8.82%), industrial naphthalene (-7.35%), caprolactam (-6.22%), and liquid chlorine (-6.08%) [67]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the refrigerant sector, chemical fiber sector, and other quality growth stocks such as Wanhu Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Luxi Chemical [55][71].

证 券 研 究 报 告 国产大模型豆包崛起，重视国产算力产 业链 [行业Table_Industry] : 计算机 日期: shzqdatemark 2024年12月24日 [Table_QuotePic] 最近一年行业指数与沪深 300 比较 -32% -24% -17% -10% -2% 5% 12% 20% 27% 12/23 03/24 05/24 07/24 10/24 12/24 计算机 沪深300 ◼ 周观点 政策支持+推理需求提升，国产算力持续受益。中央经济工作会议明确 2025 年的重点任务包括"开展'人工智能+'行动，培育未来产业"。 "人工智能+"行动有望为多个行业迎来利好，算力产业迎来重要发展 机遇。我们认为，随着国内 AI 大模型能力持续升级，AI 应用有望加速 落地，带动推理算力需求提升。此外美对华科技制裁不断加码，算力 自主可控势在必行，国产算力产业链有望持续景气。 建议关注：（1）AI 算力：海光信息、寒武纪、中科曙光、神州数码、 软通动力、华丰科技、泰嘉股份、安博通、申菱环境、英维克、润泽 科技等；（2）AI 应用：金山办公、科大讯飞、万兴科技、新致软件、 梅安森、鼎捷数智、 ...

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行 业 周 报 [行业Table_Industry] : 电子 日期: shzqdatemark 2024年12月24日 [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《周观点：谷歌发布 AI 大模型 Gemini 2.0，OpenAI 推出文生视频 Sora Turbo》 ——2024 年 12 月 17 日 《经济会议首提"人工智能+"上海提出落地 重点行业代表性并购案例》 ——2024 年 12 月 16 日 《周观点：OpenAI 推出 ChatGPT Pro 套 餐，Mate 70 系列芯片实现 100%国产》 ——2024 年 12 月 10 日 [Table_Rating] 增持（维持） [◼Table_Summary] 核心观点 市场行情回顾 过去一周（12.16-12.20），SW 电子指数上涨 3.55%，板块整体跑赢沪 深 300 指数 3.69 个百分点，从六大子板块来看，半导体、元件、其他 电子Ⅱ、消费电子、光学光电子、电子化学品Ⅱ涨跌幅分别为 5.40%、4.62%、4.52%、1.22%、0.48%、0.43%。 核心观点 2025 年中国大陆 PC 市场有望延续复苏趋势，A ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the beauty and personal care industry, indicating a positive outlook on the industry's fundamentals and relative performance compared to the benchmark index [11][17] Core Views - The long-term penetration rate of medical aesthetics is expected to continue to rise, with companies like Giant Biogene, Imeik Technology, and Jinbo Biotech showing strong potential [1] - The "Gift Sending" feature on WeChat Mini Stores is expected to benefit beauty brands, especially during upcoming holiday seasons like Christmas, New Year, and Valentine's Day [8][11] - The approval of Giant Biogene's bone repair material and its priority review for the "Injectable Recombinant Collagen Filler" are significant developments that could accelerate product launches [13][16][18][21] Industry Performance and Market Data - In November, total retail sales reached 4,376.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, with retail sales excluding automobiles growing by 2.5% [3] - From January to November, total retail sales amounted to 44,272.3 billion yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year, with retail sales excluding automobiles increasing by 3.7% [3] - Online retail sales from January to November reached 14,030.8 billion yuan, a 7.4% increase year-on-year, with physical goods accounting for 11,805.9 billion yuan, up 6.8% [22] - Cosmetics retail sales in November were 43.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.4%, with cumulative sales from January to November at 401.5 billion yuan, down 1.3% [26] Key Companies and Products - Giant Biogene: Received a Class III medical device registration certificate for its bone repair material and is undergoing priority review for its "Injectable Recombinant Collagen Filler" [13][16][18][21] - Imeik Technology: A leading medical aesthetics company with a strong product pipeline [1] - Jinbo Biotech: Expected to see continued growth in collagen-based products [1] - Jiangsu Wuzhong: Successfully approved for AestheFill and has collagen-based products in development [1] - Huadong Medicine: Known for its diverse product portfolio in the medical aesthetics sector [1] Market Trends and Opportunities - The integration of WeChat Mini Stores with video accounts, community fission, and search functions is creating new opportunities for beauty brands in live commerce, social commerce, and shelf commerce [8] - The "Gift Sending" feature simplifies the gifting process and leverages WeChat's strong social attributes to enhance consumer engagement and increase purchase frequency [11][15] - The medical aesthetics industry is expected to benefit from the approval of new products and the increasing demand for aesthetic treatments [1][13][16][18][21]

Industry Rating - Overweight (maintained) [2] Core Views - The food and beverage industry is expected to benefit from the upcoming Spring Festival, with companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye actively preparing for the holiday season [2][3][4] - The liquor industry, particularly baijiu, continues to show strong performance, with large-scale baijiu enterprises generating revenues of 530 billion yuan and profits of 116 billion yuan from January to October [2] - The beer industry is focusing on high-end development and digital transformation, with companies like China Resources Beer outlining strategies to navigate market cycles [5][53] Key Highlights by Category Liquor Industry - Kweichow Moutai is confident in achieving a 15% year-on-year revenue growth target for 2024 and is preparing for the Spring Festival with new product launches [2][4] - Wuliangye has outlined its 2025 marketing strategy, emphasizing price stability, market expansion, and brand value enhancement [2][4] - Renhuai-based liquor companies are ramping up production, with Renhuai Sauce Aroma Winery expected to produce 3,000 tons of sauce-flavored liquor annually [4][26] Beer Industry - China Resources Beer has released a 12-point strategy to navigate market cycles, focusing on innovation, digital transformation, and product diversification [5][53] - The beer industry is entering the second phase of high-end development, with companies like Tsingtao Brewery and Chongqing Brewery expected to benefit from product structure optimization [20][33] Soft Drinks and Pre-mixed Beverages - Junlebao and Mixue Bingcheng have formed a strategic partnership to provide high-quality ready-to-drink beverages, leveraging Junlebao's dairy resources and Mixue's market reach [16][30] - Dongpeng Beverage and BaiRun are recommended for their national expansion and clear product matrix strategies [20][57] Seasoning Industry - The seasoning industry is trending towards health and convenience, with products like zero-additive soy sauce and squeeze-packaged oyster sauce gaining popularity [7][18][54] - Leading brands like Haitian and Qianhe dominate the top 20 products in the 2024 JD Seasoning Gold List, highlighting the importance of brand strength [18][54] Frozen Food and Baking - The frozen baking sector is gaining traction, with companies like Ligo Foods and Nanc侨 Foods expected to benefit from cost improvements and internal reforms [20][59] - The 2024 Shenzhen International Pre-made Baking Selection Conference has provided a platform for cross-industry collaboration, driving innovation in the baking industry [8][56] Snacks and Convenience Foods - Yanjin Shop is leveraging Chinese flavors and innovative packaging to capture the Spring Festival market with its "New Chinese Snacks Matrix" [15][51] - Companies like Three Squirrels and Qiaqia Foods are expanding their product lines and distribution channels to meet diverse consumer demands [20][36] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector underperformed the CSI 300 index, with the SW Food and Beverage Index falling 2.27% compared to the CSI 300's 0.14% decline [61][90] - Top-performing stocks in the sector included ST Xifa, Three Squirrels, and Yanjin Shop, while Huifa Foods and Haixin Foods saw significant declines [39][41] Valuation and Key Data - The food and beverage sector's PE ratio stands at 21.13x, ranking 21st among SW primary industries [92] - Baijiu production in November 2024 fell by 15.2% year-on-year, while beer production increased by 5.7% [95][97] - The average retail price of high-end baijiu (52% vol, 500ml) was 1,218.13 yuan, and the average price of mid-to-low-end baijiu was 178.30 yuan [95]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" based on the analysis of the company's fundamentals and valuation expectations, indicating that the stock price is expected to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% within six months [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the rapid growth of the global e-commerce market, with intensified competition among leading cross-border e-commerce platforms. It suggests focusing on the growth potential of overseas warehouses and leading cross-border e-commerce platforms such as Pinduoduo, SHEIN, and Anker Innovations [1]. - The B2B online export sector is experiencing significant growth, with Alibaba International Station's GMV increasing by 30% year-on-year, driven by enhanced online trading tools and a shift in customer preference towards more stable trade forms [1]. Summary by Sections Cross-Border E-commerce - The report emphasizes the growth potential of overseas warehouses and leading platforms in the cross-border e-commerce sector, recommending attention to companies like Pinduoduo and SHEIN [1]. - B2B online exports are on the rise, with Alibaba International Station reporting a 30% year-on-year increase in GMV, indicating a strong preference for stable trade forms among overseas customers [1]. Textile and Apparel Industry - The textile and apparel industry is expected to benefit from a weak recovery in the overall consumption environment, with policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and a surge in outdoor apparel sales [7]. - The report suggests focusing on domestic brands that are ramping up marketing efforts during the holiday season, with specific recommendations for brands like Bosideng and Joybird [7]. Textile Manufacturing - The long-term growth logic for textile manufacturing is driven by overseas expansion, market share increase, and enhanced core competitiveness, with recommendations for companies like Huali Group and Weixing Co [8]. - Vietnam's textile exports increased by 10.6% year-on-year, supported by China's stable foreign trade policies [8][9]. Paper and Packaging - The report notes a continuous rise in corrugated paper prices, with significant mergers and acquisitions occurring in the paper industry, indicating a trend towards increased market concentration [10]. - Recommendations include leading companies like Sun Paper and Huawang Technology, which are expected to benefit from increased production capacity and efficiency [10]. Light Industry - The light industry is seeing improved expectations due to a recovery in real estate and the implementation of policies to stimulate consumption, particularly in the home goods sector [20]. - The report highlights a significant increase in retail sales for furniture and sanitary ware, with recommendations for leading companies like Oppein and Zhijia [20]. Export Chain - The report anticipates that the U.S. interest rate cuts will benefit the light industry export chain, particularly for products like insulated cups and office furniture [21]. - Recommendations include companies like Jiangxin Home and Jia Yi Co, which are expected to capitalize on the increased demand for imported goods [21]. Recommendations - Suggested companies to watch include those in the textile and apparel sector such as Weixing Co, Huali Group, and Bosideng, as well as light industry leaders like Oppein and Sun Paper [22].

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.53% during the week of December 9-13, 2024[4] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 0.70%[4] - The Hang Seng Technology Index saw a growth of 0.33%[4] - The Hang Seng Small Cap Index experienced the highest increase at 1.45%[4] Economic Indicators - The U.S. CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year in November, aligning with market expectations[4] - The core CPI also increased by 3.3% year-on-year, matching previous forecasts[4] - The current PE ratio of the Hang Seng Index is 9.34, positioned at the 30th percentile since January 1, 2007[30] - The current PB ratio of the Hang Seng Index is 1.01, situated at the 24th percentile since January 1, 2007[30] Capital Flows - Net inflow of southbound funds reached HKD 211.16 billion, an increase of HKD 28.33 billion from the previous week[25] - The top five net purchases included Alibaba (HKD 49.70 billion), Tracker Fund (HKD 27.72 billion), and China Mobile (HKD 14.53 billion)[15] - The top five net sales were Tencent Holdings (HKD 19.87 billion) and Meituan (HKD 13.58 billion)[25] Policy Outlook - The central economic work conference emphasized a more proactive macro policy and fiscal measures to boost consumption[4] - The Ministry of Commerce highlighted the implementation of a consumption upgrade policy to stimulate demand[27]