[日期Table_Industry] : shzqdatemark 2025年12月18日 | [Table_Author] 分析师: | 王红兵 | | --- | --- | | E-mail: | wanghongbing@shzq.co | | m | | | SAC 编号: | S0870523060002 | [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： | 《证券 ETF 配置价值分析》 | | --- | | ——2025 年 12 月 08 日 | | 《银行 ETF 配置价值分析》 | | ——2025 年 11 月 25 日 | | 《中药 ETF 十一月配置策略》 | | ——2025 年 11 月 19 日 | 黄金股 ETF 配置价值分析 [◼Table_Summary] 主要观点 永赢基金管理的黄金股ETF（517520.SH）跟踪中证沪深港黄金 产业股票指数（931238.CSI），指数简称SSH黄金股票。 最近3个月期间，即在2025年9月11日至2025年12月12日期间， 黄金股ETF最佳趋同股为赤峰黄金(600988.SH)，趋同股的选择综合考 虑了成分股与黄金股票 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing rapid advancements in AI models, with significant updates from major players like OpenAI and Zhiyuan, indicating a strong trend towards commercialization of AI applications [3][4] - The recent performance of the computer index has lagged behind major indices, suggesting a need for cautious optimism in the short term [2] Summary by Sections Market Review - In the past week (December 8-12), the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.74%. The computer index dropped by 1.14%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite by 0.80 percentage points and the ChiNext by 3.88 percentage points [2] Weekly Insights - OpenAI launched the new GPT-5.2 model, enhancing capabilities in information retrieval, writing, translation, and programming tasks, with improved performance in enterprise applications [3] - Zhiyuan released the GLM-4.6V series of multimodal models, significantly increasing context window size and integrating tool invocation capabilities into visual models [3] AI Application Acceleration - Google introduced the Gemini Deep Research AI agent, marking a significant step towards industrial application of AI with enhanced web search capabilities [4] - Zhiyuan also launched the AutoGLM model, which can operate mobile applications, indicating a shift towards more interactive AI agents [4] - Alibaba restructured its business to focus on creating a super app, aiming to become a primary AI assistant across various platforms [4] Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies to watch include those in computing power such as Cambrian, Haiguang Information, and Zhongke Shuguang, as well as AI application firms like Kingsoft Office and iFlytek [8]

[日期Table_Industry] : shzqdatemark [Table_Summary] 主要观点 2025年12月17日 | [Table_Author] 分析师: | 陈彦利 | | --- | --- | | Tel: | 021-53686170 | | E-mail: | chenyanli@shzq.com | | SAC 编号: | S0870517070002 | [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《CPI 持续回升，PPI 偏降》 ——2025 年 12 月 11 日 《进出口回升，顺差再回高位》 ——2025 年 12 月 10 日 《投资仍负，消费偏稳》 ——2025 年 11 月 19 日 生产偏稳，需求回落 ——2025 年 11 月宏观数据点评 生产偏稳，需求回落 作为经济成效综合体现的工业生产增速本月略有回落，稳中偏降。三 大门类产业除采矿业外均有所回落。11月各行业生产除其他运输设 备、汽车、黑色金属冶炼之外均有所回升，汽车生产下降幅度较突 出。 固定投资增速进一步负增。跌幅进一步扩大。分项来看，制造业投资 增长1.9%，增速下降0.8个百分点，基础设 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The automotive sector has shown a slight increase in performance, with a weekly change of +0.16%, ranking 9th among 31 primary industries [3] - November saw a total automotive production and sales of 3.532 million and 3.429 million units respectively, with year-on-year increases of 2.8% and 3.4% [4] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 53.2% in November, with sales of 1.823 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.6% [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The automotive sector's performance was +0.16%, with motorcycles and others performing the best at +1.7% [3] - The top five performing companies in the sector saw significant increases, with Superjet Co. at +39.03% [3] Sales Data - In November, automotive exports reached 728,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 48.5% [4] - Passenger vehicle sales were 3.037 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [4] Regulatory Developments - The State Administration for Market Regulation has proposed guidelines to standardize pricing behavior in the automotive industry, aiming to prevent price collusion among manufacturers and parts suppliers [5] - The guidelines emphasize the need for comprehensive price management and fair pricing practices [5] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies involved in smart technology related to vehicles, those with potential overseas sales, and parts manufacturers benefiting from domestic substitution [7] - Recommended companies include BAIC Blue Valley, Great Wall Motors, and GAC Group for vehicle manufacturers, and several parts manufacturers such as Songyuan Safety and Zhejiang Xiantong [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The consumer electronics ETF (159732.SZ) managed by China Asset Management tracks the Guozheng Consumer Electronics Theme Index (980030). From September 11, 2025, to December 12, 2025, the best convergent stock of the consumer electronics ETF was Huaqin Technology (603296.SH). The choice of the convergent stock considered the trend deviation of the constituent stocks from the consumer electronics index and research coverage [3][10]. - Regarding the valuation of Huaqin Technology's stock price stabilization position in September 2024, it should be based on the 2023 fundamental data (EPS), and the calculated bottom - end valuation is close to 17 times PE. Since the stock price rebound in September 2024, most of the stock price fluctuations have been within the value range defined by the fundamental value of T - 1 year and the expected fundamental value of T+2 years. Based on the data of December 12, 2025, the expected per - share fundamental values of Huaqin Technology from 2025 to 2027 are 67.97, 84.68, and 102.63 yuan respectively, and the closing price of 95.5 yuan per share is still lower than the per - share fundamental value in 2027 [3][10]. - According to the position of Huaqin Technology's closing price in the expected per - share fundamental value range from 2025 to 2027, the closing position on December 12, 2025, was 51.2%. From October 9, 2025, to December 12, 2025, the Sharpe ratio and return - drawdown ratio of the consumer electronics ETF based on the dynamic position allocation of Huaqin Technology were better than those of the buy - and - hold strategy. The allocation strategy achieved a 4.5% terminal return with a maximum drawdown of 4.5%, while the buy - and - hold strategy of the consumer electronics ETF achieved a - 7.02% terminal return with a maximum drawdown of 18.03% [4][11] Summary by Directory 1 Consumer Electronics ETF Configuration Value Analysis - The consumer electronics ETF (159732.SZ) is managed by China Asset Management and tracks the Guozheng Consumer Electronics Theme Index (980030). The best convergent stock from September 11, 2025, to December 12, 2025, was Huaqin Technology (603296.SH) [3][10]. - The bottom - end valuation of Huaqin Technology in September 2024 is close to 17 times PE, and the stock price fluctuations since then are mostly within the defined value range. The expected per - share fundamental values from 2025 to 2027 are 67.97, 84.68, and 102.63 yuan respectively, with a closing price lower than the 2027 value [3][10]. - The closing position on December 12, 2025, was 51.2%. The dynamic position allocation strategy based on Huaqin Technology outperformed the buy - and - hold strategy in terms of Sharpe ratio, return - drawdown ratio, terminal return, and maximum drawdown [4][11]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Grid Equipment ETF (159326.SZ) managed by Huaxia Fund tracks the CSI Grid Equipment Theme Index (931994.CSI). From May 1, 2025, to December 12, 2025, the best convergent stock of the Grid Equipment ETF is Hongfa Co., Ltd. (600885.SH), selected by considering the trend deviation and research coverage between component stocks and the grid equipment index [3][9]. - From November 2024 to June 2025, Hongfa Co., Ltd.'s bottom - valuation based on 2024 EPS was close to 19.5 times PE. As of December 12, 2025, its stock price fluctuations did not exceed the value range defined by the fundamental value of T - 1 year and the expected fundamental value of T+2 year. Based on December 12, 2025, data, the expected per - share fundamental values from 2025 to 2027 were 24.25, 28.09, and 32.38 yuan respectively, and the closing price was 30.42 yuan/share. The rebound in December started near 28 yuan/share, and the current stock price is still lower than the 2027 per - share fundamental value [3][9]. - According to the position of Hongfa Co., Ltd.'s closing price in the expected per - share fundamental value range from 2025 to 2027, the closing position on December 12, 2025, was 52.81%. From October 9, 2025, to December 12, 2025, the Sharpe ratio and return - drawdown ratio of the Grid Equipment ETF based on Hongfa Co., Ltd.'s dynamic position allocation were better than those of the buy - and - hold strategy. The allocation strategy achieved a 11.60% terminal return with a maximum drawdown of 4.45%, while the buy - and - hold strategy of the Grid Equipment ETF achieved a 9.28% terminal return with a maximum drawdown of 14.03% [4][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Grid Equipment ETF Configuration Value Analysis - The Grid Equipment ETF (159326.SZ) is managed by Huaxia Fund and tracks the CSI Grid Equipment Theme Index (931994.CSI) [3][9]. - The best convergent stock of the Grid Equipment ETF from May 1, 2025, to December 12, 2025, is Hongfa Co., Ltd. (600885.SH) [3][9]. - Hongfa Co., Ltd.'s bottom - valuation from November 2024 to June 2025 was close to 19.5 times PE, and its stock price did not exceed the defined value range as of December 12, 2025 [3][9]. - The expected per - share fundamental values of Hongfa Co., Ltd. from 2025 to 2027 are 24.25, 28.09, and 32.38 yuan respectively, and the closing price on December 12, 2025, was 30.42 yuan/share [3][9]. - The closing position on December 12, 2025, was 52.81%. The dynamic position allocation strategy outperformed the buy - and - hold strategy in the period from October 9, 2025, to December 12, 2025 [4][10].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices showed a mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.87%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 0.75%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index up by 1.13% during the week of December 1 to December 5, 2025 [4][9] - The Hang Seng Index's current Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is 11.87, which is around the 70th percentile since January 1, 2007, while the Price-to-Book (PB) ratio stands at 1.28, approximately at the 58th percentile during the same period [6][11] Key Economic Indicators - The U.S. PCE price index increased by 0.3% month-on-month in September, with the core PCE price index rising by 0.2%, aligning with expectations [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to 86.2%, which is expected to positively impact liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, price-increasing chemical products, and AI infrastructure due to favorable market conditions [4] Capital Flow Analysis - Net inflow of southbound funds amounted to HKD 11.349 billion last week, a decrease of HKD 8.491 billion compared to the previous week [6][13] - The top five net purchases by southbound funds included Xiaomi Group (HKD 4.596 billion), Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (HKD 2.606 billion), Meituan (HKD 2.100 billion), ZTE Corporation (HKD 0.641 billion), and Li Auto (HKD 0.392 billion) [6][17] - The top five net sales were Tencent Holdings (HKD 3.811 billion), SMIC (HKD 1.376 billion), ASMPT (HKD 0.439 billion), Kuaishou Technology (HKD 0.285 billion), and China Pacific Insurance (HKD 0.129 billion) [6][17]

CPI Analysis - In November 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, marking the highest level since March 2024[4] - The CPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, primarily influenced by non-food prices[4] - Food prices turned positive, contributing positively to the CPI, with fresh vegetable prices increasing by 14.5%[15] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained stable at a 1.2% year-on-year increase, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months[15] PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, with a slight widening of the decline by 0.1 percentage points[12] - Month-on-month, PPI increased by 0.1%, marking two consecutive months of growth[20] - Key sectors such as black metal mining and coal mining saw a narrowing of price declines, while oil extraction and processing experienced expanded price drops[22] Economic Policy Implications - The low CPI and PPI levels create room for more proactive macroeconomic policies, including increased fiscal measures and moderate monetary easing[5] - The political bureau meeting emphasized the need for stronger counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to promote effective qualitative and reasonable quantitative economic growth[5] Risk Factors - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in China-U.S. policies[6]

Trade Data Overview - In November 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 3.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.1% year-on-year[10] - Exports amounted to 2.35 trillion yuan, growing by 5.7%, while imports were 1.55 trillion yuan, up by 1.7%[10] - The trade surplus for November was 792.58 billion yuan, equivalent to 111.68 billion USD, marking a significant increase from 900.74 billion yuan in October[21] Export Performance - Exports to the EU showed a notable rebound, while exports to the US experienced a slight increase in decline[14] - The export growth rate for automobiles surged to over 50%, indicating strong performance in this sector[15] - Exports to BRICS countries, excluding South Africa, generally improved, particularly with a significant reduction in the decline of exports to Russia[11] Import Dynamics - Import growth rebounded significantly, with mechanical and electrical imports showing a marked acceleration[11] - The growth rate for major imported goods, excluding steel and iron ore, declined, indicating a mixed performance in import categories[20] Economic Implications - The overall increase in imports and exports suggests resilience in foreign trade amidst external uncertainties, particularly due to improved US-China trade negotiations[26] - The political bureau's meeting emphasized the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to enhance domestic demand and optimize supply[26] Risk Factors - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in US-China policies[27]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week (20251201 - 20251207), US stock indexes and the Hang Seng Index rose, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changing by 0.91%, 0.31%, and 0.50% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index changing by 1.36%, while the Hang Seng Index changed by 0.87% [3]. - A - shares had larger - cap stocks with greater gains, and sectors such as satellites, non - ferrous metals, and communications led the rise. The wind All - A Index changed by 0.72%, and different market - cap indexes had varying performances. Among 30 CITIC industries, 17 rose and 13 fell, with non - ferrous metals, communications, and national defense and military industries leading with over 3.0% weekly gains [4]. - China's treasury bond yields fluctuated narrowly in the past week. The 10 - year treasury bond futures main contract fell by 0.06% compared to November 28, 2025. The 10 - year treasury bond active bond yield increased by 0.68 BP to 1.8480%. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan, and capital prices decreased [5]. - Long - term US treasury bond yields increased. As of December 5, 2025, the 10 - year US treasury bond yield changed by 12 BP to 4.14%. The yield curve became steeper [6][7]. - The US dollar weakened, and the RMB appreciated against the US dollar. The US dollar index decreased by 0.46%, and the US dollar exchange rates against the euro, pound, and yen all declined. The US dollar exchange rates against offshore and onshore RMB also decreased [8]. - Gold and silver prices mainly rose. London gold spot prices rose by 1.24%, and domestic gold prices also increased. London silver spot prices rose by 7.78%, and domestic silver prices also showed an upward trend [9]. - The Bank of Japan is in an interest - rate hike cycle, which may increase the volatility of global risk assets. If the Bank of Japan hikes interest rates twice in 2026, each time by 25 BP, the policy rate will reach 1.25%, and global risk asset prices may fluctuate [10]. - Looking ahead, A - shares may continue to fluctuate at high levels, and investment opportunities in sectors such as new energy, photovoltaics, chips, computing power, and artificial intelligence are recommended. The bond market may enter a narrow - range fluctuation again, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield around 1.85% has allocation value. Gold prices are expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend [11]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Stock Market Performance - US stock indexes and the Hang Seng Index rose in the past week, with different change rates for each index [3]. - A - shares had large - cap stocks with greater gains, and different sectors and market - cap indexes had different performances [4]. Bond Market Performance - China's treasury bond yields fluctuated narrowly, and the central bank had a net withdrawal in open - market operations, with capital prices decreasing [5]. - Long - term US treasury bond yields increased, and the yield curve became steeper [6][7]. Exchange Rate and Commodity Market Performance - The US dollar weakened, and the RMB appreciated against the US dollar [8]. - Gold and silver prices mainly rose in the past week [9]. Policy and Market Outlook - The Bank of Japan is in an interest - rate hike cycle, and its 2026 interest - rate hike rhythm may impact global risk assets [10]. - A - shares may continue high - level fluctuations, the bond market may have narrow - range fluctuations, and gold prices are expected to be strong and volatile [11].