| | | 政策有保障,转型有成效 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中国对美加征 125%关税点评 | | 日期: | 2025年04月18日 | 事件 | | | | 2025年4月11日,国务院关税税则委员会发布公告:对原产于美 | | 分析师: | 张河生 | 国的进口商品加征关税税率由 84%提高至 125%;同时鉴于在目前关 | | Tel: | 021-53686158 | | | E-mail: | zhanghesheng@shzq.com | 税水平下,美国输华商品已无市场接受可能性,如果美方后续对中国 | | SAC 编号: S0870523100004 | | 输美商品继续加征关税,中方将不予理会。 | | 相关报告: | | | | 《中国对等反制,降息降准或加速落地》 | 0 | 主要观点 | 1、大幅加征关税后中美经济均可能受负面影响 中国加征 125%关税,美国加征 145%关税。 防究报 | -2025年04月02日 | EN-J- IFA 10 / 10 / 2 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / | 《聚焦消费能力、意愿提升,供给创造需 | 由于特朗 ...

周观点： 美国限制英伟达对华销售 H20 芯片，对华关税最高升至 245% ——先进科技主题 20250407-20250413 [Table_Rating] 增持（维持） [◼Table_Summary] 主要观点 | E-mail: | yanfeng@shzq.com | | --- | --- | | SAC 编号: | S0870525030001 | | 分析师: | 李心语 | | SAC 编号: | S0870525040001 | [Table_QuotePic] 最近一年行业指数与沪深 300 比较 -11% -2% 7% 15% 24% 33% 42% 51% 59% 04/24 06/24 09/24 11/24 01/25 04/25 电子 沪深300 [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《周观点：科技厂商陆续发布财报及业绩 预告，AI 驱动业绩增长》 ——2025 年 04 月 11 日 《事件点评："对等关税"靴子落地，全球 贸易结构加快调整》 ——2025 年 04 月 08 日 《HBM 产能供给持续紧张，台积电 2nm 工 艺有望于 2025H2 进入量产》 ...

——2025 年 04 月 08 日 《HBM 产能供给持续紧张，台积电 2nm 工 艺有望于 2025H2 进入量产》 ——2025 年 04 月 07 日 周观点： 美国限制英伟达对华销售 H20 芯片，对华关税最高升至 245% ——先进科技主题 20250407-20250413 [Table_Rating] 增持（维持） [◼Table_Summary] 主要观点 | E-mail: | yanfeng@shzq.com | | --- | --- | | SAC 编号: | S0870525030001 | | 分析师: | 李心语 | | SAC 编号: | S0870525040001 | [Table_QuotePic] 最近一年行业指数与沪深 300 比较 -11% -2% 7% 15% 24% 33% 42% 51% 59% 04/24 06/24 09/24 11/24 01/25 04/25 电子 沪深300 [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《周观点：科技厂商陆续发布财报及业绩 预告，AI 驱动业绩增长》 ——2025 年 04 月 11 日 《事件点评："对等关税 ...

——2025 年 04 月 11 日 《投资加快，消费向好》 ——2025 年 03 月 19 日 开局良好，内需发力 ——2025 年 3 月经济数据点评 [日期Table_Industry] : shzqdatemark [Table_Summary] 主要观点 2025年04月18日 | [Table_Author] 分析师: | 陈彦利 | | --- | --- | | Tel: | 021-53686170 | | E-mail: | chenyanli@shzq.com | | SAC 编号: | S0870517070002 | [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《3 月出口仍获支撑，顺差维持千亿》 ——2025 年 04 月 16 日 《价格双负局面延续》 开局良好，内需发力 3 月主要数据还是延续了向好趋势。作为经济成效综合体现的工业增 长明显加快，三大门类产业均有不同程度回升，采矿业回升幅度较 大。主要行业生产也呈现出涨跌不一。 我们认为作为经济第一增长动力的投资稳步上升。其中基建投资持续 发力，制造业投资仍稳。今年财政政策将全方位发力，赤字率和财政 赤字全面上调。超长期 ...

[日期Table_Industry] : shzqdatemark [Table_Summary] 主要观点 2025年04月16日 | [Table_Author] 分析师: | 陈彦利 | | --- | --- | | Tel: | 021-53686170 | | E-mail: | chenyanli@shzq.com | | SAC 编号: | S0870517070002 | [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《价格双负局面延续》 | ——2025 年 04 月 11 日 | | --- | | 《投资加快，消费向好》 | | ——2025 年 03 月 19 日 | | 《春节错月影响下，价格实际仍偏稳》 | 3 月出口仍获支撑，顺差维持千亿 ——2025 年 3 月外贸数据点评 3 月出口仍获支撑，顺差维持千亿 3 月外贸表现仍较强，出口增长明显加快，顺差维持千亿规模。出口 方面，与 1-2 月相比，对欧盟、美国、日本出口均有所回升，尤其是 美国，虽然美国在 2、3 月已对我国加征两轮关税，但鉴于其 4 月全球 开征"对等关税"，因此或仍存在一定的抢出口效应；对东盟出口也有 ...

证券投资基金研究报告/基金周报 报告日期：2025年04月15日 本期（2025.4.7-2025.4.11）上证指数下跌 3.11%，深证成指下跌 5.13%。申万一级行业跌多涨少，其中农林牧渔和商贸零售行业表现较 好。海外权益市场重要指数跌多涨少，国际黄金价格上涨。本期各类型 基金跌多涨少。主动投资股票基金较上期下跌 3.78%，主动投资混合基 金下跌 3.05%，主动投资债券基金上涨 0.07%；QDII 基金较上期下跌 5.05%。 图 1、基金指数近一年收益率走势 数据来源：wind，上海证券基金评价研究中心； 起止时间：2024 年 4 月 12 日——2025 年 4 月 11 日 图 2、各类型基金本期收益率（%） 数据来源：wind，上海证券基金评价研究中心；数据截至 2025 年 4 月 11 日 注：主动投资股票基金、混合基金及债券基金平均收益率采用中国开放式主动管理基 金系列指数收益率；其他类型基金平均收益率采用样本基金收益率算术平均值 分析师：池云飞 执业证书编号：S0870521090001 电话：021-53686397 E-mail: chiyunfei@shzq.com 研究 ...

Group 1: CPI and PPI Data Analysis - In March 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with urban areas down 0.1% and rural areas down 0.3%[10] - Food prices fell by 1.4%, while non-food prices increased by 0.2%[10] - The producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month[21] Group 2: Core CPI and Economic Implications - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.5% year-on-year, indicating stable demand[12] - The decline in CPI was primarily influenced by a 1.4% drop in food prices, which accounted for approximately 60% of the total CPI decrease[11] - The low inflation environment provides room for policy measures to stimulate domestic demand and support economic recovery[31] Group 3: Price Trends and Policy Outlook - The dual negative price situation continues, with CPI's decline narrowing due to the fading impact of the Spring Festival and a reduction in food price declines[30] - Industrial product prices remain in a contraction phase, suggesting a stable price trend overall[31] - The report suggests that monetary and fiscal policies should work together to enhance macroeconomic policies and stabilize prices[31]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. tariff policy has led to downward adjustments in overseas asset valuations, while domestic asset value has improved due to supportive policies in innovation, consumption, and finance, resulting in a positive outlook for the domestic economy since early 2025 [1][15][20] - The report emphasizes the resilience of the domestic economy against external risks, bolstered by the development of the internal circulation economy and the success of the Belt and Road Initiative, which enhances the long-term attractiveness of domestic assets despite short-term challenges from geopolitical tensions [1][15][20] - The report suggests that the April 2025 fund allocation should focus on three areas: the impact of U.S. policy changes on global economic development, new opportunities arising from structural improvements in the domestic economy, and the valuation effects on precious metals and oil due to changing expectations [1][15][20] Market Review - As of March 31, 2025, global equity asset performance was mixed, with A-shares and H-shares outperforming overseas markets, yielding returns of -0.1% and 0.3% respectively, while value stocks in A-shares achieved a growth of 0.8% [7][12] - Domestic bond assets remained stable despite increased volatility in interest rate bonds, with the China Bond Index only declining by 0.2%, and credit bonds showing stronger resilience [7][12] Market Outlook - The report identifies the U.S. policy environment as a significant uncertainty for global economic development, with protectionist measures potentially harming the recovery of other economies [16][20] - It notes that the domestic economy is undergoing a structural transformation, supported by various policies aimed at boosting consumption and improving market liquidity, which has led to a stable performance in service and manufacturing PMIs [20][21] Major Asset Allocation - The report recommends a diversified asset allocation strategy, emphasizing the importance of balancing investments across different asset classes to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [44] - For equity funds, it suggests maintaining confidence in long-term investments, focusing on high certainty in performance, profitability, and dividends, particularly in themes like dividends and large-cap funds [47][48] - For fixed income funds, it highlights the continued attractiveness of credit bonds and recommends a focus on medium to short duration bonds for stability [49][50] - The report advises on QDII funds, suggesting a cautious approach to oil investments due to geopolitical risks and a focus on value stocks outside the U.S. market, particularly in Europe and Hong Kong [51][54]

- The A-share industry rotation model is constructed using six factors: capital, valuation, sentiment, momentum, overbought/oversold, and profitability[12] - The capital factor is based on the net inflow rate of industry capital[12] - The valuation factor uses the industry's valuation percentile over the past year[12] - The sentiment factor is derived from the proportion of rising constituent stocks[12] - The momentum factor uses the MACD indicator[12] - The overbought/oversold factor uses the RSI indicator[12] - The profitability factor is based on the industry's consensus forecast EPS percentile over the past year[12] Model Evaluation - The A-share industry rotation model provides a comprehensive scoring system to assess industry performance[12] Model Backtest Results - The highest scoring industries in the current period are agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, transportation, and public utilities[13][14] - The lowest scoring industries are non-ferrous metals, electronics, and petroleum and petrochemicals[13][14] Consensus Stock Selection Model - The consensus stock selection model selects stocks based on momentum, valuation, and price increase frequency factors, combined with high-frequency capital flow data[15] - The model identifies stocks with the highest similarity between high-frequency capital flow trends and stock price trends within the top three rising secondary industries[15] Model Backtest Results - The selected stocks for the current period include Pulike, Huisheng Biological, and Zhongmu Shares in the animal health industry, and Xiaocheng Technology in the precious metals industry[16]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: A-Share Industry Rotation Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses six factors—capital, valuation, sentiment, momentum, overbought/oversold, and profitability—to build a scoring system for industry evaluation [12] **Model Construction Process**: - **Capital**: Uses industry net inflow rate of major funds as the primary data source - **Valuation**: Based on the valuation percentile of the industry over the past year - **Sentiment**: Proportion of stocks with price increases within the industry - **Momentum**: Utilizes the MACD indicator as the main data source - **Overbought/Oversold**: Relies on the RSI indicator - **Profitability**: Uses the consensus forecast EPS percentile of the industry over the past year [12] **Model Evaluation**: Provides a comprehensive scoring system for industry rotation analysis [12] - **Model Name**: Consensus Stock Selection Model **Model Construction Idea**: Combines momentum, valuation, and price increase frequency factors with high-frequency fund flow data to select stocks with the highest similarity between fund flow and price trends [15] **Model Construction Process**: - Filters high-growth industries at the Shenwan secondary industry level over the past 30 days - Calculates momentum, valuation, and price increase frequency factors using monthly stock data - Computes high-frequency fund inflow/outflow changes for each stock using minute-level data - Selects stocks with the highest similarity between fund flow and price trends within the top three secondary industries [15] **Model Evaluation**: Effectively identifies stocks with strong fund flow and price trend alignment [15] --- Model Backtesting Results - **A-Share Industry Rotation Model**: - **Top Scoring Industries**: - Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery: Total score = 14 - Transportation: Total score = 8 - Utilities: Total score = 7 [13][14] - **Consensus Stock Selection Model**: - **Selected Industries**: - Animal Health II, Precious Metals, Special Steel II - **Selected Stocks**: - Animal Health II: Pulike Biological Engineering, Huisheng Biological, Zhongmu Co., Keqian Biological, Haili Biological - Precious Metals: Xiaocheng Technology, Sichuan Gold, Hunan Gold, Hunan Silver, Chifeng Gold - Special Steel II: Jiuli Special Materials, Shagang Group, Xianglou New Materials, Changbao Co., Guangda Special Materials [16] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Capital **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures industry net inflow rate of major funds [12] **Factor Construction Process**: Aggregates daily net inflow data for transactions exceeding 100,000 shares or 200,000 yuan, categorized by Shenwan primary industries [8][9] **Factor Evaluation**: Reflects fund flow trends across industries [12] - **Factor Name**: Valuation **Factor Construction Idea**: Uses industry valuation percentile over the past year [12] **Factor Construction Process**: Calculates the relative valuation position of the industry within a one-year window [12] **Factor Evaluation**: Provides insights into industry valuation levels [12] - **Factor Name**: Sentiment **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks the proportion of stocks with price increases within the industry [12] **Factor Construction Process**: Aggregates the percentage of stocks with positive price movements in the industry [12] **Factor Evaluation**: Indicates market sentiment within the industry [12] - **Factor Name**: Momentum **Factor Construction Idea**: Utilizes MACD indicator for trend analysis [12] **Factor Construction Process**: Computes MACD values for industry-level data [12] **Factor Evaluation**: Captures industry momentum trends [12] - **Factor Name**: Overbought/Oversold **Factor Construction Idea**: Relies on RSI indicator to measure market conditions [12] **Factor Construction Process**: Calculates RSI values for industry-level data [12] **Factor Evaluation**: Identifies overbought or oversold conditions in the industry [12] - **Factor Name**: Profitability **Factor Construction Idea**: Uses consensus forecast EPS percentile over the past year [12] **Factor Construction Process**: Aggregates EPS forecast data and calculates its relative position within a one-year window [12] **Factor Evaluation**: Reflects industry profitability trends [12] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **Capital Factor**: - **Top Industries (5-day net inflow)**: Beauty and Personal Care, Comprehensive, Light Manufacturing, Building Materials, Environmental Protection [2][8] - **Top Industries (30-day net inflow)**: Comprehensive, Beauty and Personal Care, Coal, Building Materials, Textile and Apparel [2][9] - **Valuation Factor**: - **Top Scoring Industries**: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (+++), Transportation (++), Utilities (++) [14] - **Sentiment Factor**: - **Top Scoring Industries**: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (+++), Transportation (+++), Utilities (+++) [14] - **Momentum Factor**: - **Top Scoring Industries**: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (+++), Comprehensive (+++), Utilities (+++) [14] - **Overbought/Oversold Factor**: - **Top Scoring Industries**: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (++), Utilities (--) [14] - **Profitability Factor**: - **Top Scoring Industries**: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (++), Banking (+++) [14]