证 券 研 究 报 告 泡泡玛特"星星人"新款热销，关注潮 玩消费与 AI+消费 ——新消费行业周报（20260126-0201） 行业数据： 社会消费品零售总额首破 50 万亿元，规模居全球零售市场前列。结 构持续优化，新的消费热点不断涌现，26 年服务消费与乡村市场有望 是核心引擎。国家统计局公布数据，2025 年社会消费品零售总额 50.12 万亿元，比上年增长 3.7%（比 2024 年加快 0.2 个百分点）。其 中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额 45.14 万亿元，增长 4.4%。全国网上 零售额 15.97 万亿元，比上年增长 8.6%；服务零售额比上年增长 5.5%；最终消费支出对经济增长的贡献率为 52.0%（比上年的贡献率 提高了 5 个百分点）。12 月份，社会消费品零售总额 4.51 万亿元，同 比增长 0.9%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额 3.97 万亿元，增长 1.7%。 ——2026 年 01 月 08 日 服务消费活力释放。从居民消费看，2025 年服务性消费支出占居民人 均消费支出的比重是 46.1%。各地也在持续创新消费场景，优化消费 环境，文化、旅游、娱乐、赛事等细分领域 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [9] Core Insights - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2025 surpassed 50 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.7% compared to the previous year. Online retail sales reached 15.97 trillion yuan, growing by 8.6%, while service retail sales increased by 5.5%. The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 52.0%, an increase of 5 percentage points from the previous year [3][9] - The 2026 CES showcased a strong embrace of AI technology, focusing on practical applications. Major chip companies like NVIDIA, AMD, and Intel are shifting their attention to physical AI and edge AI, indicating a significant trend in AI hardware development [12][9] - The popularity of collectible toys is rising, with products from Pop Mart, such as the PUCKY series, gaining significant attention and selling out quickly. This trend suggests a potential new focus in the collectible toy market [14][15] Summary by Sections Macro Consumption - In 2025, the retail sales of social consumer goods reached 50.12 trillion yuan, with online retail and service retail sales growing by 8.6% and 5.5%, respectively. The contribution of final consumption to economic growth was 52.0% [3][9] - Service consumption is becoming more vibrant, with a projected 46.1% of per capita consumption expenditure dedicated to service-related spending in 2025. Various sectors like tourism, entertainment, and sports are expected to see double-digit growth [3][11] AI + Consumption - The CES 2026 highlighted the integration of AI in consumer products, with a focus on AI hardware that is becoming more mature and applicable. The emergence of AI glasses and other smart devices indicates a shift towards consumer-grade AI products [12][9] - Companies such as Luxshare Precision, GoerTek, and KANAT Optical are recommended for investment in the AI hardware sector [16] Collectible Toys - Pop Mart's new product lines, including the "Starry Person" series, have quickly sold out, indicating a strong market interest. The resale prices of these products have seen significant increases, suggesting a robust demand in the collectible toy market [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [10] Core Views - The basic chemical index decreased by 0.86% over the past week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.94 percentage points, ranking 12th among all sectors [3][15] - Key sub-sectors that performed well include compound fertilizers (10.93%), textile chemical products (10.36%), coal chemicals (4.81%), polyurethane (3.75%), and soda ash (2.99%) [3][16] - International crude oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures settling at $70.69 and $65.21 per barrel, respectively, marking increases of 7.30% and 6.78% from the previous week [4] - The price of polyester filament has also increased, with weekly average prices for POY 150D/48F, FDY 150D/96F, and DTY 150D/48F rising by 2.99%, 3.84%, and 2.04%, respectively [5] Summary by Sections Market Trends - The basic chemical index's performance was negative, with a decrease of 0.86% compared to a slight increase of 0.08% in the CSI 300 index [3][15] - The top-performing sub-sectors included compound fertilizers, textile chemical products, and coal chemicals, indicating a mixed performance across the industry [3][16] Chemical Price Trends - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases were international fuel oil (9.66%), adipic acid (9.59%), and octanol (8.84%) [4][24] - Conversely, the products with the largest price declines included NYMEX natural gas (-25.76%) and hydrochloric acid (-15.38%) [4][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several key sectors: refrigerants, chemical fibers, high-quality companies like Wanhua Chemical, and agricultural chemicals [10][44] - Specific companies to watch include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., and Sanmei Co. in the refrigerant sector, and Huafeng Chemical and New Fengming in the chemical fiber sector [10][44]

证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table增_R持at（ing维] 持） | [行Ta业ble_Industry] : | 医药生物 | | --- | --- | | 日期: | 2026年02月04日 shzqdatemark | | [T分ab析le师_Author] : | 张林晚 | | Tel: | 021-53686155 | | E-mail: | zhanglinwan@shzq.com | | SAC 编号: | S0870523010001 | 行 业 周 报 [T相ab关le报_R告e：portInfo] 领域资源整合加速》 《产业化进程加速，脑机接口发展进入快 车道》 《重庆脑机接口获突破性进展，建立癫痫 治疗新范式》 我们认为，我国血脂异常人数近年显著增加，关注代谢领域PCSK9靶点 及小核酸赛道进展。建议关注：恒瑞医药、信达生物、华东医药等。 风险提示 药品/耗材降价风险；行业政策变动风险等；市场竞争加剧风险等。 诺华 siRNA 降脂药物在华获批新适应症，关 注 PCSK9 及小核酸赛道 ——医药生物行业周报（20260126-0130） [Tab主le_要Su观mm点ary] 诺华 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 [T日ab期le_Industry] : shzqdatemark 2026年02月04日 | 固 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 定 | | | | | | | | [T分ab析le师_Author] | 张河生 | : | 收 | Tel: | 021-53686158 | 益 | | E-mail: | zhanghesheng@shzq.com | 周 | 编号: | SAC | S0870523100004 | 报 | | [T相ab关le报_R告e：portInfo] | 《国际避险情绪提升与国内投资风险偏好 | | | | | | | 高企》 | ——2026 | 年 | 月 | 日 | 01 | 30 | | 《结构性降息落地与格陵兰岛局势升级》 | ——2026 | 年 | 月 | 日 | 01 | 21 | | 《投资者风险偏好高企》 | ——2026 | 年 | 月 | 日 | 01 | 13 | [T相ab关le报_R告e：portInfo] 《国际避险情绪提升与国内投资风险 ...

[日期Table_Industry] : shzqdatemark 2026年02月03日 | [Table_Author] 分析师: | 王红兵 | | --- | --- | | E-mail: | wanghongbing@shzq.co | | | m | | SAC 编号: | S0870523060002 | [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： | 《黄金股 ETF 配置价值分析》 | | --- | | ——2025 年 12 月 18 日 | | 《电网设备 ETF 配置价值分析》 | | ——2025 年 12 月 15 日 | | 《消费电子 ETF 配置价值分析》 | | ——2025 年 12 月 15 日 | 卫星 ETF 的配置价值与配置风险 [◼Table_Summary] 主要观点 永赢基金管理的卫星ETF（159206.SZ）跟踪国证商用卫星通信 产业指数（980018.CNI），在2025年10月30日至2026年1月30日期 间，卫星ETF最佳趋同股为上海瀚讯（300762），趋同股的选择综合 考虑了成分股与卫星通信指数的走势偏差和研究覆盖度。 我们发现，上 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 [T日ab期le_Industry] : shzqdatemark 2026年01月30日 | [T分ab析le师_Author] | : | 张河生 | | --- | --- | --- | | Tel: | | 021-53686158 | | E-mail: | | zhanghesheng@shzq.com | | SAC | 编号: | S0870523100004 | [T相ab关le报_R告e：portInfo] 固 定 收 益 周 报 《投资者风险偏好高企》 ——2026 年 01 月 13 日 《地缘局势升级，大宗分化》 从 ETF 表现看，黄金、光伏、建材、卫星、石化、航空航天等表 现领先，周涨幅在 5%以上。 国际避险情绪提升与国内投资风险偏好高企 ——宏观固收周报（20260119-20260125） [Tabl主e_要Su观mm点ary] 美股三大指数下跌，恒生指数同样下跌。 过去一周（20260119-20260125），纳斯达克、标普 500 指数与 道琼斯工业平均指数分别变化-0.06%、-0.35%与-0.53%，同时期恒生 指数变化-0.36%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation for the stock to outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 275 million to 295 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 71.13% to 83.58% [3]. - The anticipated revenue for 2025 is projected at 1.473 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 54.4% [10]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand in AI computing power and automotive electronics, driving rapid advancements in the PCB industry towards high-layer and high-density technologies [9]. - The successful launch of the second-phase production base is expected to enhance the timely delivery capabilities of high-end equipment, further boosting company performance [9]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.473 billion yuan, 2.025 billion yuan, and 2.442 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 54.4%, 37.5%, and 20.6% [10]. - Net profit projections for the same years are 294 million yuan, 501 million yuan, and 635 million yuan, with growth rates of 83.1%, 70.2%, and 26.8% [10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.23 yuan, 3.80 yuan, and 4.82 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation for the stock to outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 275 million to 295 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 71.13% to 83.58% [3]. - The anticipated revenue for 2025 is projected at 1.473 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 54.4% [10]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the expanding demand in AI computing and automotive electronics, driving rapid advancements in the PCB industry towards high-layer and high-density technologies [9]. - The successful launch of the second-phase production base is expected to enhance the timely delivery capabilities of high-end equipment, further boosting company performance [9]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.473 billion yuan, 2.025 billion yuan, and 2.442 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 54.4%, 37.5%, and 20.6% [10]. - Net profit projections for the same years are 294 million yuan, 501 million yuan, and 635 million yuan, with growth rates of 83.1%, 70.2%, and 26.8% [10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.23 yuan, 3.80 yuan, and 4.82 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [6] Core Insights - The automotive sector experienced a weekly increase of 2.20%, with the best-performing sub-sector being automotive services, which rose by 6.87% [3] - The average daily wholesale volume for domestic passenger car manufacturers was 51,200 units, a year-on-year decrease of 28.00%, while the average daily retail volume was 50,200 units, down 22.00% year-on-year [3] - In January, the narrow passenger car retail market is expected to reach approximately 1.8 million units, with new energy vehicles accounting for around 800,000 units, resulting in a penetration rate of 44.4% [4] - CATL launched a light commercial vehicle solution featuring the industry's first mass-produced sodium battery, which can operate in extreme temperatures [4][11] - Tesla plans to sell the Optimus robot to the public by the end of next year, indicating a significant future business line for the company [5] Summary by Sections Automotive Sector Performance - The automotive sector's weekly performance was +2.20%, ranking 15th among 31 primary industries [3] - The top five companies in terms of stock performance included New Coordinates (+36.30%) and Iron Flow Co. (+32.97%) [3] Sales and Market Trends - The expected retail sales for January are 1.8 million units, with a month-on-month decrease of 20.4% but a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [4] - The penetration rate for new energy vehicles in January is projected at 44.4% [4] Technological Developments - CATL's new sodium battery solution is designed for various vehicle types and can function effectively in extreme cold [4][11] - The first prototype of the Hongqi all-solid-state battery has successfully passed critical testing, marking a significant technological advancement for the company [11] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies involved in intelligent vehicle technology and those with potential overseas sales [12] - Recommended companies include Beiqi Blue Valley and several component manufacturers [14]