证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Author] 分析师: 陈彦利 Tel: 021-53686170 E-mail: chenyanli@shzq.com SAC 编号: S0870517070002 宏 观 数 据 外贸向好，经济平稳 ——2024 年 8 月外贸数据点评 [日期Table_Industry] : shzqdatemark [Table_Summary] 主要观点 2024年09月14日 出口走强，顺差扩张 8 月出口反弹回升，进口有所下滑，顺差再破 900 亿美元规模。出口 方面，从海外需求来看，主要发达国家制造业景气度以回升为主外需 仍有支撑。从出口国别来看，对美国出口有所下滑，对欧盟、日本出 口明显回升。从主要出口商品来看，劳动密集型商品除玩具外均有所 改善，机电商品方面也以回升为主，而汽车、手机出口明显加快。进 口本月回落较多，从进口数量来看，主要进口商品增速除大豆、汽 车、钢材以外均有所下滑；从进口金额来看，除大豆、钢材之外均有 所回落。机电进口增速也有所回落，拖累了进口的表现。 市场有望波动中走稳回暖 我们认为宏观环境变化为我国资本市场运行步入平稳回暖的新阶段奠 定了基础。 ...

Inflation Data - August CPI year-on-year increased by 2.5%, consistent with market expectations, down from 2.9% in the previous month[4] - Core CPI year-on-year remained stable at 3.2%, matching both market expectations and the previous value[4] - Month-on-month CPI adjusted for seasonal factors increased by 0.2%, in line with expectations[4] Market Reactions - On the day of the data release, 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields changed by +3 basis points and 0 basis points, respectively[5] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September have risen to 88% as of September 12[5] Price Trends - Energy prices saw a significant decline, with month-on-month growth dropping from 0.0% to -0.8%[5] - Core goods prices decreased slightly, with used car and truck prices showing a reduced decline from -2.3% to -1.0%[5] - Core service prices increased from +0.3% to +0.4%, driven by rising rent prices[5] Economic Outlook - Inflation is expected to continue to cool slowly, prompting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to adjust its dot plot and initiate a rate cut cycle[5] - The long-term trajectory of U.S. Treasury yields will be influenced by the Federal Reserve's future rate cut schedule[5]

证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 周 报 [行业Table_Industry] : 食品饮料 日期: shzqdatemark 2024年09月17日 [Table_Author] 分析师: 王慧林 Tel: 15951919467 E-mail: wanghuilin@shzq.com SAC 编号: S0870524040001 分析师: 赖思琪 Tel: 021-53686180 E-mail: laisiqi@shzq.com SAC 编号: S0870524090001 分析师: 袁家岗 Tel: 02153686249 E-mail: yuanjiagang@shzq.com SAC 编号: S0870524090003 [Table_QuotePic] 最近一年行业指数与沪深 300 比较 -34% -29% -25% -21% -17% -12% -8% -4% 0% 09/23 11/23 02/24 04/24 07/24 09/24 食品饮料 沪深300 [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《中秋在即，关注需求趋势 ——食品饮料 行业周报 20240902-20240908》 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 周 报 珀莱雅管理层换届落地，复锐肉毒素产 品中国获批 ——美容护理行业周报（20240909-0913） [Table_Rating] 增持（维持） [➢Table_Summary] 主要观点 8 月抖音美妆同比+22%，品牌集中度有提升趋势 根据青眼情报数据，8月抖音化妆品类目（护肤、彩妆/香水、洗发护 发、身体护理清洁）GMV超198.35亿元，同比增长22.27%，环比增 长27.75%。（1）护肤类目GMV超117.06亿元，同比增长25.21%，环 比增长42.48%。品牌集中度进一步提升，TOP20品牌的GMV占护肤 类目的30.08%，环比提升7.52个百分点；TOP20品牌中国产品牌 GMV占比为51.24%，环比下滑。国货品牌中韩束、欧诗漫、珀莱雅进 入前五，GMV分 别 超 过4.47/2.39/2.27亿 元 ， 同 比 增 长6.5%、 74.4%、29%。此外薇诺娜和自然堂GMV高增，同比分别达到175.6% 和171.5%。（2）彩妆类目GMV超48.98亿元，同比增长11.54%，环比 上涨10.11%。其中国产品牌数量占比达75%，国产品牌GM ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 周 报 珀莱雅管理层换届落地，复锐肉毒素产 品中国获批 ——美容护理行业周报（20240909-0913） [Table_Rating] 增持（维持） [➢Table_Summary] 主要观点 8 月抖音美妆同比+22%，品牌集中度有提升趋势 根据青眼情报数据，8月抖音化妆品类目（护肤、彩妆/香水、洗发护 发、身体护理清洁）GMV超198.35亿元，同比增长22.27%，环比增 长27.75%。（1）护肤类目GMV超117.06亿元，同比增长25.21%，环 比增长42.48%。品牌集中度进一步提升，TOP20品牌的GMV占护肤 类目的30.08%，环比提升7.52个百分点；TOP20品牌中国产品牌 GMV占比为51.24%，环比下滑。国货品牌中韩束、欧诗漫、珀莱雅进 入前五，GMV分 别 超 过4.47/2.39/2.27亿 元 ， 同 比 增 长6.5%、 74.4%、29%。此外薇诺娜和自然堂GMV高增，同比分别达到175.6% 和171.5%。（2）彩妆类目GMV超48.98亿元，同比增长11.54%，环比 上涨10.11%。其中国产品牌数量占比达75%，国产品牌GM ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The National Day holiday travel shows a clear dual circulation characteristic, with cost-effectiveness of travel during the "Eleventh" holiday highlighted. According to Ctrip's "2024 National Day Travel Forecast Report," domestic and outbound flight prices have dropped over 20% compared to the same period last year, leading to a surge in long holiday travel bookings. Additionally, inbound travel orders have increased by 60%, indicating a strong dual circulation trend in tourism [5] - The report predicts that the number of travelers and tourism consumption during the "Eleventh" holiday is expected to reach a historical high, with major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou being the top destinations. The report also notes a significant increase in rural tourism orders, driven by travelers from first and second-tier cities [5] - The concert economy is emerging as a new path for urban cultural tourism development, with large-scale concerts attracting significant attendance and boosting local tourism. The report emphasizes the importance of the "concert + tourism" consumption model, which is expected to drive growth in transportation, hotels, dining, and tourist attractions [6][7] Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Increase," indicating a favorable outlook for the sector [5][26]. Travel and Tourism Insights - The report highlights a 60% increase in inbound travel orders and a significant drop in flight and hotel prices, suggesting a favorable environment for travel during the upcoming holiday [5]. - Major cities are expected to be the most popular destinations, with a notable increase in rural tourism orders [5]. Concert Economy Impact - The concert economy is becoming a significant driver of urban tourism, with large events leading to increased local tourism and spending [6][7]. - The report suggests that the "concert + tourism" model will enhance the overall travel experience and stimulate various sectors within the travel industry [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific companies within the hotel, restaurant, tourism, and retail sectors, including Huazhu Group, Haidilao, and China Duty Free [8].

证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 周 报 周观点：Open AI 发布推理系列模型 o1，1X 有望充分受益 ——互联网传媒行业周报（20240909-20240915） [Table_Rating] 增持（维持） [◼Table_Summary] 主要观点 9月12日，OpenAI发布了代号为o1的系列推理模型，现阶段包括o1- preview（预览版）及o1-mini（迷你版）。o1通过一系列离散步骤谨 慎而合乎逻辑地解决问题，每个步骤均建立在上一步骤的基础上，更 类似于人类的推理方式。Open AI认为o1的发布代表AI向类人方向的目 标又迈出了一步，o1全新的"推理"能力如此重要，以至于Open AI 决定完全放弃"GPT"品牌，重新从"1"开始计数版本。o1在多项 推理测试中相比GPT-4o明显提升：（1）在高水平数学竞赛（AIME 2024）中，o1-preview、o1准确率分别为56.7%、83.3%（相比GPT4o分别提升了43.3pct、69.9pct）；（2）在代码竞赛（CodeForces） 中，o1-preview、o1准确率分别为62%、89%（相比GPT-4o分别提升 了51pct ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 行 业 周 报 8 月社零同比增长 2.1%，关注高股息低 估值的零售企业 ——行业周报（20240909-0913） [行业Table_I : ndustry] 商贸零售 日期: shzqdatemark 2024年09月16日 E-mail: zhanghongle@shzq.com | --- | --- | |-------------------------|----------------| | | | | [Table_Author] 分析师 : | 张洪乐 | | Tel: | 021-53686159 | | | | | SAC 编号 : | S0870523040004 | [Table_QuotePic] 最近一年行业指数与沪深 300 比较 -33% -29% -24% -19% -15% -10% -5% -1% 4% 08/23 11/23 01/24 04/24 06/24 08/24 商贸零售 沪深300 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------|------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage [2][4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading OEM&ODM supplier in the smart home sector, focusing on electric sofas and beds, with a strong emphasis on international market expansion, particularly in North America [2][4]. - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.207 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.67%, and a net profit of 285 million yuan, up 41.81% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is positioned to capitalize on the growing global smart home market, which is projected to reach $166.9 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 17.54% from 2020 to 2026 [2][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Smart Home Export Leader and Brand Development - The company has transitioned from OEM to ODM and self-branded products, focusing on smart home solutions [11]. - The main products include smart electric sofas and beds, with H1 2024 revenue contributions of 77.49% and 13.41%, respectively [13]. - The company has established a production base in Vietnam to enhance capacity and reduce tariff risks [13][19]. 2. Smart Home Market Expansion - The global smart home market is entering a growth phase, with North America being the largest market [21]. - The functional sofa market is expanding, with a projected market size of $32.7 billion in 2023, and the U.S. market penetration rate is expected to continue increasing [21][24]. - The smart electric bed market is also growing rapidly, with a CAGR of 20.41% from 2017 to 2022 [27]. 3. Product and Supply Chain Synergy - The company emphasizes strong R&D capabilities, with 620 authorized patents and ongoing innovation [3]. - The supply chain is vertically integrated, allowing for cost control and efficient production [3][19]. - The company has built long-term relationships with major clients like Ashley Furniture and Pride Mobility, enhancing its market position [3][19]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 2.39 billion yuan, 2.89 billion yuan, and 3.43 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 24.37%, 21.06%, and 18.45% [4][6]. - The projected net profits for the same years are 503 million yuan, 605 million yuan, and 720 million yuan, with growth rates of 23.40%, 20.40%, and 18.90% [4][6].

证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Author] 分析师: 陈彦利 Tel: 021-53686170 E-mail: chenyanli@shzq.com SAC 编号: S0870517070002 宏 观 数 据 价格平稳，政策维持 ——2024 年 8 月物价数据点评 [日期Table_Industry] : shzqdatemark [Table_Summary] 主要观点 2024年09月12日 CPI 弱回升，PPI 跌幅加深 本月 CPI 小幅回升，主要受到食品涨价以及非食品下跌的综合影响。 食品受天气影响季节性上涨较多，而非食品项则由于油价下降以及出 行旅游相关价格回落。在 8 月份 0.6%的 CPI 同比变动中，今年价格变 动的影响更大。扣除食品和能源价格的核心 CPI 同比上涨 0.3%，虽有 回落，但受到去年高基数的影响，整体仍较平稳。工业品价格跌幅加 深，主要行业中，非金属制品、石油开采、石油加工、电气机械、农 副食品、黑色金属冶炼加工、汽车以及化工等行业价格下降，上述 8 个行业合计影响 PPI 同比下降约 1.47 个百分点，对 PPI 的下拉作用比 上月扩大 0.74 个 ...