策略研究 周度报告 外部扰动敏感期，高股息有望进一步强化 [Table_RptDate] 报告日期： 2025-01-12 [Table_Author] 分析师：郑小霞 执业证书号：S0010520080007 电话：13391921291 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 分析师：刘超 执业证书号：S0010520090001 电话：13269985073 邮箱：liuchao@hazq.com 分析师：张运智 执业证书号：S0010523070001 电话：13699270398 邮箱：zhangyz@hazq.com 分析师：任思雨 执业证书号：S0010523070003 电话：18501373409 邮箱：rensy@hazq.com 相关报告 1.策略周报《节前高股息占优》2025- 01-05 2.策略月报《扰动与对冲》2024-12-30 3.策略周报《配置迎变局，重视高股 息》2024-12-22 12 月中旬以来市场维持弱势震荡态势，高股息板块确立为新占优主线，表 现优异。展望后市，预计市场惯性在春节前仍将延续，这也决定了高股息占 优态势也将延续。此外，从中观行业层面入手，具备政策预 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing active research in life sciences and the global wave of biotechnology revolution, which is accelerating integration into economic and social development, providing new solutions to major challenges such as health, climate change, resource security, and food security. The National Development and Reform Commission has issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for Biological Economy Development," indicating a trillion-yuan market potential in the biological economy [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Synthetic Biology Market Dynamics - The synthetic biology sector has shown a positive performance, with an increase of 0.82% in the Huazhong Synthetic Biology Index during the week of January 6-10, 2025, ranking 7th among various sectors [20][22]. - The top five performing companies in the synthetic biology sector during this period were Jinbo Bio (+5%), Shengquan Group (+5%), Aibo Medical (+3%), Juzhi Bio (+3%), and Tebao Bio (+3%) [22]. 1.2 Company Business Developments - Huisi Le Health Technology and Aibio have signed a strategic cooperation agreement to promote the integration of synthetic biology and AI technology, focusing on the development of peptide raw materials [28]. - Henan Huiyang's project for the annual production of 1,000 tons of high molecular weight polylactic acid has commenced, with a total investment of 500 million yuan, aiming for an annual revenue of 600-800 million yuan [29]. - Zhejiang Tianfu Hongyun's project for the annual production of 400,000 tons of biodiesel has been accepted for environmental assessment, with an investment of 800 million yuan [30]. 1.3 Industry Financing Tracking - The financing in the synthetic biology sector has accelerated, with nearly a hundred companies completing new financing rounds at the beginning of 2024. For instance, Libang Pharmaceutical completed a C round financing of 550 million yuan to support its kidney disease drug development [33]. - Inari, a company based on synthetic biology technology, announced a financing of 144 million USD, bringing its total equity financing to over 720 million USD [33].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the continuous active research in life sciences and the global wave of biotechnology revolution, which is accelerating integration into economic and social development. This provides new solutions for major challenges such as health, climate change, resource and energy security, and food security. The National Development and Reform Commission has issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for Biological Economy Development," indicating a trillion-yuan market potential in the biological economy [4][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Synthetic Biology Market Dynamics - The synthetic biology sector showed a positive performance with an increase of 0.82% during the week of January 6-10, 2025, ranking 7th among various sectors [20]. - The Huazhong Synthetic Biology Index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.15 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 2.83 percentage points during the same period [5]. 1.1 Secondary Market Performance - The top five performing companies in the synthetic biology sector included Jinbo Bio (+5%), Shengquan Group (+5%), Aibo Medical (+3%), Juzi Bio (+3%), and Tebao Bio (+3%) [22]. 1.2 Company Business Developments - Huisi Le Health Technology and Aibio have signed a strategic cooperation agreement to promote the integration of synthetic biology and AI technology [28]. - Henan Huiyang's project for producing 1,000 tons of high molecular weight polylactic acid has commenced with a total investment of 500 million yuan, aiming for annual revenue of 600-800 million yuan [28]. - Zhejiang Tianfu Hongyun's project for producing 400,000 tons of biodiesel has been accepted for environmental assessment, with an investment of 800 million yuan [29]. 1.3 Industry Financing Tracking - The synthetic biology sector is experiencing accelerated financing, with nearly a hundred companies completing new financing rounds at the beginning of 2024. For instance, Libang Pharmaceutical completed a C round financing of 550 million yuan [33]. - Inari, a company based on synthetic biology technology, announced a financing of 144 million USD, bringing its total equity financing to over 720 million USD [33]. 1.4 Company R&D Directions - The report emphasizes the importance of R&D in synthetic biology, with companies focusing on innovative applications in various fields, including beauty and health [28]. 1.5 Industry Research Dynamics - The report notes significant developments in synthetic biology research, including the introduction of biobased chemicals into the "Encouraged Foreign Investment Directory" by the National Development and Reform Commission [10].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for various technology consumer sectors, particularly in AI-enabled applications and innovative consumer products [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant innovations in AR/VR, robotic vacuum cleaners, lawn mowers, and black display technology, driven by AI integration and cost reduction strategies [4]. - It anticipates a surge in demand for AR glasses due to price reductions and enhanced AI capabilities, with the Thunder V3 priced at 1799 yuan, significantly lower than competitors [4]. - The report predicts that the robotic vacuum cleaner sector will see continued innovation in cleaning efficiency and spatial capabilities, with products expected to launch in the next 1-2 years [4]. - The lawn mower segment is expected to evolve into a consumer-grade robot, leveraging advanced navigation and obstacle avoidance technologies [4]. - The black display technology is shifting towards RGB MiniLED, with major brands like Hisense and TCL leading the charge, aiming to capture market share from OLED manufacturers [4]. Summary by Sections AR/VR Direction - The report notes that AI and AR smart glasses are set to redefine the next generation of smart devices, with multiple brands launching new products [9][10]. - Key products include the Thunder V3 AI glasses and the Thunder X3 Pro, both featuring advanced technology and competitive pricing [10][13]. - The report emphasizes that the combination of price reduction, AI integration, and hardware upgrades will catalyze market growth for AR glasses [13]. Robotic Vacuum Cleaner Direction - Innovations in robotic vacuum cleaners focus on expanding cleaning capabilities and improving efficiency through advanced technologies [18][22]. - Notable products include the Stone Technology G30 and the Ecovacs X8 PRO, which feature enhanced navigation and cleaning mechanisms [20][22]. - The report suggests that the integration of AI will drive further product optimization and market expansion in the coming years [26]. Lawn Mower Direction - The lawn mower market is experiencing an influx of new players, with products designed to enhance navigation and efficiency [32][34]. - Key innovations include the Ninebot Navimow X3 and Ecovacs GOATA3000, which utilize advanced positioning and obstacle avoidance technologies [34][36]. - The report indicates a trend towards transforming traditional lawn mowers into intelligent robotic solutions [36]. Black Display Technology Direction - The report highlights the shift towards RGB MiniLED technology, with major brands like Hisense and TCL launching new products that enhance color accuracy and energy efficiency [42][46]. - Key products include the Hisense RGB MiniLED TV and TCL's QD-MiniLED offerings, which aim to compete with OLED technology [44][46]. - The report anticipates that these advancements will lead to increased market share for domestic brands against established players like Samsung and LG [42][46]. Additional Innovation Directions - The report discusses emerging trends in service robots and smart home devices, indicating a growing market for AI-enabled consumer products [52]. - Innovations include AI companion robots and smart home appliances, which are expected to gain traction in the coming years [52].

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Overweight [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the resilience of the industry performance and suggests focusing on valuation recovery opportunities [3] - Nvidia's new flagship graphics card, GeForce RTX 5090, offers double the performance of its predecessor at a price of $1999, indicating strong advancements in AI computing capabilities [4][46] - The National Development and Reform Commission, along with other agencies, has issued guidelines for data infrastructure construction, indicating a positive outlook for data center-related businesses [5] Market Review - From January 6 to January 10, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.34%, the ChiNext Index fell by 2.02%, and the CSI 300 Index dropped by 1.13% [3][27] - The AI index showed a slight increase of 0.18%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 3.23% [27] AI Developments - Microsoft has open-sourced a small language model, Phi-4, which outperforms larger models in several benchmarks [46] - Nvidia launched the Cosmos AI platform aimed at advancing physical AI systems such as autonomous vehicles and robots [46] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the need to develop AI to promote high-quality growth in central enterprises [46][8] AI Hardware - Nvidia's RTX 5090 graphics card features 32GB GDDR7 memory and a memory bandwidth of 1792 GB/s, significantly enhancing AI computing capabilities [4][46] - The Project Digits personal AI supercomputer, priced at $3000, is set to launch in May 2025, showcasing Nvidia's commitment to AI hardware innovation [50] Investment Recommendations - For overseas AI, companies like Meta, Adobe, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, AMD, and Amazon are recommended for investment [7] - In the domestic AI sector, companies such as Tencent, Alibaba, and iFlytek are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [8] - Data center infrastructure companies like Tuowei Information and Godson Digital are also recommended [9]

Investment Rating - Industry Investment Rating: Overweight [1] Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing production cuts that are driving rapid inventory destocking, with the market's focus shifting to the actual price increases along the supply chain [3][11] - In wind energy, 144GW of wind power was approved nationwide in 2024, with over 220GW of wind turbine contracts awarded, indicating a strong market sentiment and upward expectations for the wind energy sector [3][23] - The energy storage market is in a rapid growth phase, with a focus on the PCS (Power Conversion System) segment, as traditional markets expand and new markets emerge [4][28] - The hydrogen energy sector is witnessing strong development, with multiple regions actively investing in hydrogen production and storage [4][34] - The electric vehicle market showed strong performance in December, with recommendations to continue investing in high-profit segments such as lithium batteries and structural components [5][39] Summary by Sections Photovoltaic - Production cuts in the photovoltaic sector are leading to quick inventory destocking, with the most sensitive indicators being inventory days for battery cells, silicon wafers, modules, and silicon materials [3][11] - The main industry chain's four segments are expected to see prices drop to leading companies' cash costs, with a potential price recovery starting in Q4 2024 [13][21] - Investment recommendations focus on companies that can "cross the cycle," particularly those in the first tier of the main industry chain [22] Wind Energy - The wind energy sector saw a significant increase in approved projects, with 2024 expected to reach 89GW of new installations, a 17% year-on-year increase [23][25] - Key investment opportunities include low-valued stocks and companies benefiting from offshore wind projects [24] Energy Storage - The energy storage market is rapidly developing, with a focus on the PCS segment, and significant projects are being awarded, such as a 2.8GWh independent energy storage project in Shandong [28][29] - The market is expected to see over 100GWh of new installations in 2024 [29] Hydrogen Energy - The hydrogen energy sector is experiencing strong growth, with significant price reductions in electrolyzers and advancements in hydrogen transportation [34][35] - Investment opportunities are emerging in hydrogen production and storage segments [34] Electric Vehicles - December saw strong sales in the electric vehicle market, with Tesla's global deliveries reaching over 1.78 million units, despite facing challenges from competition and market conditions [39][40] - Continued investment in high-profit segments is recommended, particularly in lithium batteries and structural components [5][39] New Technologies - The low-altitude economy is being promoted through infrastructure development and policy support, with a projected market size exceeding 1 trillion yuan by 2026 [4][31]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the active research in life sciences and the global biotechnology revolution, which is providing innovative solutions to major challenges such as health, climate change, resource security, and food security. The National Development and Reform Commission has issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for Biological Economy Development," indicating a trillion-yuan market potential in the biological economy [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Synthetic Biology Market Dynamics - The synthetic biology sector's overall performance was average, with a decline of 0.84% during the week of December 30, 2024, to January 3, 2025 [21]. - The Huazhong Synthetic Biology Index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.71 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 7.73 percentage points [4]. 1.1 Company Business Progress - Shenzhen Youwei Technology Holdings Group signed a contract for a 300,000-ton biodegradable polyvinyl alcohol (PGA) project in Changsha, with a total investment of 2.3 billion yuan, expected to generate an annual output value of 10 billion yuan [27]. - Shandong Guyu Biotechnology Co., Ltd. announced an ecological co-production project with a total investment of 2.80756 billion yuan, aiming to produce various biochemicals [27]. - IFF launched TEXSTAR™, an innovative enzyme solution aimed at transforming the texture of dairy and plant-based fermented foods [28]. 1.3 Industry Financing Tracking - Synthetic biology companies are accelerating financing, with nearly a hundred companies completing new rounds of financing at the beginning of 2024. For instance, Guangzhou Ruifeng Biotechnology Co., Ltd. secured several hundred million yuan in financing to advance gene-editing drug clinical trials [33]. - NewPro completed a seed round financing of several million dollars to enhance its protein expression technology and scale up production [33]. 1.4 Company R&D Directions - Zhanbeisi Biotech launched a new type of rice protein with a protein content of ≥80%, utilizing non-GMO materials to enhance flavor and stability [38]. - A collaboration between Beijing University of Chemical Technology and Beijing Huaten Rubber & Plastic Products Co., Ltd. focused on the application of bio-based rubber materials in glove production [39].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 13th this week, with a decline of 6.29%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.74 percentage points and outperforming the ChiNext Index by 2.28 percentage points [3][26] - The chemical industry is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2024, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4] Industry Performance - The chemical sector's performance this week was ranked 13th, with a decline of 6.29%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 5.55%, while the ChiNext Index dropped by 8.57% [3][26] - The top three gaining sectors this week were coal (-1.61%), oil and petrochemicals (-2.43%), and banking (-2.75%), while the top three declining sectors were computer (-12.49%), defense and military industry (-10.48%), and communication (-9.95%) [26][29] Key Industry Dynamics - Shell has closed its refinery in Singapore, leading to an increase in crude oil and refrigerant R22 prices [1][41] - The chemical industry is experiencing a supply-side adjustment, with 136 companies affected this week, including 4 new repairs and 4 restarts [13] - The market for third-generation refrigerants is expected to enter a high prosperity cycle due to quota policies coming into effect in 2024, with a stable growth in demand driven by the development of heat pumps and cold chain markets [5] Recommendations - Focus on synthetic biology, particularly companies like Kasei Biotech and Huaheng Biotech, which are leading in the field [4] - In the refrigerant market, companies with high quota ratios such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology are expected to benefit [5] - For electronic specialty gases, companies like Jinhong Gas, Huate Gas, and China Shipbuilding Gas are recommended due to their potential in the domestic market [6] - Light hydrocarbon chemicals are becoming a global trend, with companies like Satellite Chemical recommended for their value re-evaluation [7] - COC polymers are expected to see accelerated domestic industrialization, with AkzoNobel suggested for attention [8] - The potassium fertilizer market is anticipated to rebound, with companies like Yaji International and Salt Lake Co. recommended [9] - MDI is expected to improve in supply dynamics, with Wanhu Chemical highlighted as a key player [11]

Investment Rating - The report provides an investment strategy for the mechanical equipment industry, indicating a cautious approach with a focus on incremental growth in 2025 [1]. Core Insights - 34% of listed mechanical companies experienced a decline in both operating revenue and net profit margin year-on-year, with only the engineering machinery sector showing growth in net profit [4][5]. - The overall revenue of the mechanical industry is expected to maintain a low single-digit growth rate in 2025, aligning with the China Machinery Industry Federation's forecast of 5% growth [4][5]. - The domestic market is in a phase of reduction and update, with a shift towards new energy and technology-driven equipment, indicating a stable yet progressive trend [4][5]. - The overseas market is seeing an increase in the competitiveness of Chinese machinery, with companies enhancing their capabilities in branding, channels, after-sales, financial services, and supply chain management [5]. Summary by Sections 2024 Mechanical Industry Review - The mechanical industry saw slight revenue growth driven by exports, particularly in the transportation equipment sector, which grew by 12.2% [21]. - The number of companies with both revenue and profit declines increased, with only 37% of companies showing growth in both metrics [26]. - The overseas revenue share for the mechanical industry reached 23.5%, with engineering machinery leading at over 30% [32]. 2025 Mechanical Industry Outlook - The industry is expected to see slight revenue growth, with profit growth anticipated to outpace revenue growth due to stable raw material prices and cost control measures [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas market expansion as a key investment theme for the coming years [5][6]. Investment Strategy for 2025 - The report recommends focusing on sectors encouraged by policy, such as autonomous controllability and cyclical recovery, while also considering merger and acquisition opportunities within the mechanical sector [6]. - Specific sectors highlighted for investment include humanoid robotics, liquid cooling technology, industrial mother machines, and agricultural machinery, among others [6][8].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the domestic policy vacuum and slow improvement in economic fundamentals have limited market support, with external risk expectations becoming the dominant factor, leading to continued market volatility before external risks materialize [1][2][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of high dividend stocks as a key investment theme, particularly in the context of the upcoming Chinese New Year, while also highlighting sectors with policy expectations such as automotive and home appliances, and sectors expected to see improved prosperity like agriculture and animal husbandry [1][3][27] Group 2 - The report discusses the impact of external disturbances on market risk appetite, particularly due to the widening of the China-US interest rate differential and the upcoming inauguration of Trump, which has heightened sensitivity to external risks [2][11][12] - It suggests that high dividend sectors have established themselves as a dominant theme since mid-December, with a focus on banking, coal, and oil and petrochemicals as key areas for investment [3][27] - The report outlines three main investment lines: high dividend stocks with good value before the Spring Festival, consumer goods benefiting from policy support, and technology sectors with potential for valuation improvement [27][28]