主要观点 [Table_RptDate] 报告日期： 2024-11-22 [Table_Author] 策略分析师：郑小霞 执业证书号：S0010520080007 电话：13391921291 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 策略分析师：刘超 执业证书号：S0010520090001 电话：13269985073 邮箱：liuchao@hazq.com ⚫[Table_Su 市场异动 11 月 22 日市场大跌，其中上证指数收跌 3.06%，创业板指收跌 3.98%。全 A 成交额 1.79 万亿，较昨日增量近 1800 亿。行业层面全部下跌，前期涨幅 靠前的行业整体下跌较多，其中非银（-4.82%）、医药生物（-4.30%）、美容 护理（-4.26%）、电子（-3.94%）、基础化工（-3.80%）、电力设备（-3.78%）、 计算机（-3.63）跌幅靠前。 ⚫ 地缘形势风险升温、前期强势方向获利了结等加大市场调整幅度 今日市场和前期强势板块大跌，主要原因在于：一是俄乌、朝韩地缘政治 风险急剧上升，抑制市场风险偏好。11 月 21 日，俄罗斯使用洲际弹道导 弹，同时也发射了新研制的中程弹道导弹" ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's Q3 2024 performance significantly exceeded expectations, driven by strong growth in international business [2] - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 reached 15.9 billion HKD, representing a year-over-year increase of 15.5%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus expectations [2] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q3 2024 was 6 billion HKD, up 21.7% year-over-year, and significantly higher than Bloomberg consensus expectations by 24.9% [2] - The report emphasizes that outbound and international business remain the main drivers of the company's performance growth, with international hotel and flight bookings surpassing 60% year-over-year growth [2] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue by segment: - Accommodation booking revenue: 6.8 billion HKD (yoy +21.7%) - Transportation ticketing revenue: 5.7 billion HKD (yoy +5.3%) - Vacation business revenue: 1.6 billion HKD (yoy +17.3%) - Business travel management revenue: 660 million HKD (yoy +11.0%) - Other business revenue: 1.2 billion HKD (yoy +40.9%) [2] - The company expects revenues of 52.8 billion, 60.7 billion, and 69.3 billion HKD for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 18.4%, 15.1%, and 14.1% [4][6] - The projected adjusted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 17.7 billion, 19.8 billion, and 23 billion HKD, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 35.7%, 11.4%, and 16.4% [4][6] Key Financial Metrics - Major financial indicators for 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E: - Revenue: 44.6 billion, 52.8 billion, 60.7 billion, 69.3 billion HKD - Non-IFRS net profit: 13.1 billion, 17.7 billion, 19.8 billion, 23 billion HKD - Gross margin: 82% for 2024E and 2025E, 81% for 2026E - P/E ratio: 26.2 for 2023A, decreasing to 14.9 by 2026E [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home furnishing industry, particularly benefiting leading companies due to the implementation of the old-for-new policy [2][11]. Core Insights - The old-for-new policy is expected to stimulate home consumption recovery, with top companies likely to benefit significantly. The estimated subsidy amount for home furnishing categories is projected to be between 83 billion to 167 billion yuan, potentially driving terminal sales of 437 billion to 875 billion yuan [2][16]. - The report highlights that the home furnishing sector is currently at a historical low in terms of valuation, indicating substantial room for upward correction [2][11]. Summary by Sections Old-for-New Policy Impact - The old-for-new policy is supported by a 1.5 trillion yuan special long-term government bond, with subsidies expected to account for 5%-10% of this amount, translating to approximately 83-167 billion yuan for home furnishing [2][16]. - As of November 8, 2024, the usage rate of subsidies for home appliances was about 64%, with expectations for similar trends in home furnishing categories [2][16]. Regional Implementation - The report notes that the implementation of the old-for-new policy varies by region, with some provinces like Guangdong and Hunan showing high coverage for smart home products [2][19]. - The report anticipates a nationwide rollout of the home furnishing subsidy policy, as many regions are still in the early stages of implementation [2][24]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading home furnishing companies with strong channel coverage and financial strength, such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Zhibang Home, which are well-positioned to benefit from the policy [2][3][28]. - Companies that actively engage in the old-for-new subsidy activities are expected to capture market orders quickly and improve operational performance [2][28].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights significant pressure in the domestic market due to price adjustments affecting the sales of covered stents, while overseas revenue is expected to grow [2][4] - The company has achieved a revenue of 9.70 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.13%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.53 billion yuan, up 42.46% year-on-year [2] - The report anticipates that the company's revenue will continue to grow, projecting revenues of 12.47 billion yuan, 13.54 billion yuan, and 15.99 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.89 billion yuan, 5.47 billion yuan, and 6.26 billion yuan [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 1.82 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a decline of 31.65% year-on-year, primarily due to policy impacts [2] - The gross profit margin is projected to decrease from 76.5% in 2023 to 70.5% by 2026 [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to show a slight decline in 2024, with a forecast of 489 million yuan, before increasing to 547 million yuan in 2025 and 626 million yuan in 2026 [4][6] Market Outlook - The report indicates that the company is experiencing significant pressure in the domestic market due to price adjustments and competitive bidding policies, while the overseas market is expected to see rapid growth [2][4] - The company has made strategic acquisitions and is expanding its market presence in Europe, Japan, and the United States, with overseas revenue growth of 11% year-on-year [2][4] Valuation Metrics - The report provides a forecast for the company's earnings per share (EPS) to be 3.97 yuan in 2024, increasing to 5.08 yuan by 2026 [6][7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 28.58 in 2023 to 21.43 by 2026, indicating a potential increase in valuation attractiveness over time [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][5]. Core Insights - The company, Dingyang Technology, is a leading enterprise in the domestic electronic measurement instrument industry, established in 2007, and is one of the few manufacturers capable of simultaneously developing, producing, and selling digital oscilloscopes, signal generators, spectrum analyzers, and vector network analyzers [4][18]. - The electronic measurement instrument industry has vast potential, with domestic brands benefiting from the trend of domestic substitution, supported by government policies and funding initiatives [4][5]. - The company's high-end product strategy and strengthened marketing channels are driving continuous growth in performance, with high-end product revenue increasing by 55% year-on-year in 2023 [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Dingyang Technology has deepened its presence in the electronic measurement field for over 20 years, entering a new phase of rapid development [18]. - The company has established a solid equity structure, with key shareholders holding a combined 57.6% of shares, ensuring stability [24][27]. 2. Industry Outlook - The electronic measurement instrument industry is crucial for modern scientific research, with a wide range of applications across various sectors, particularly in IT and communications, which account for 47% of the market [45][60]. - Domestic brands are increasingly recognized for their quality, with significant growth potential in high-end markets, driven by advancements in technology and government support [62][66]. 3. Product and Marketing Strategy - The company emphasizes independent research and development, with R&D expenses rising significantly, reflecting its commitment to innovation [70][71]. - Dingyang Technology has established a comprehensive global marketing network, with overseas revenue growing from 1.15 billion to 2.89 billion yuan from 2018 to 2023, indicating a compound annual growth rate of 20.24% [4][83]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach 5.17 billion, 6.43 billion, and 8.14 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.49 billion, 1.91 billion, and 2.44 billion yuan [5][99]. - The company's current price-to-earnings ratio is estimated at 33, 26, and 20 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5][99].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Overweight [2] Core Views - Downstream demand has exceeded expectations, leading to a continuous rebound in lithium prices [2] - As of November 19, the battery-grade lithium carbonate index price is 78,513 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase [2] - The rebound in lithium prices is supported by increased downstream production and supply-side reductions, particularly overseas [2] Summary by Sections Downstream Demand - In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.463 million and 1.43 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 48% and 49.6% [2] - The installed capacity of power batteries in October was 59.2 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 8.6% and a year-on-year increase of 51% [2] Supply-Side Dynamics - Recent announcements from overseas producers indicate a reduction in lithium supply, with MinRes halting operations at its Bald Hill site due to a prolonged downturn in the lithium market [2] - The expected shipment volume for MinRes has been revised down from 120,000-145,000 tons to 60,000 tons for the 2025 fiscal year [2] Market Outlook - The lithium market is expected to maintain its momentum, with production of lithium iron phosphate in October showing a month-on-month increase of 4% and a year-on-year increase of over 100% [2] - The anticipated increase in lithium prices is likely to continue due to supply constraints and robust demand from the battery sector [2]

桂[Ta林ble三_Sto金ckN（ameRptType] 002275） 公司点评 业绩持续优化，三金品牌稳健发展 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [2] Core Views - SMIC achieved record-high revenue in Q3 2024 driven by strong domestic demand for wafers, with revenue reaching RMB 15.6 billion, up 14% QoQ and 33% YoY [4] - Q3 gross margin improved significantly to 21%, up 7 percentage points QoQ, due to higher ASPs for 12-inch wafers [4] - Capacity utilization exceeded 90% in Q3, up 5 percentage points QoQ [4] - SMIC expects Q4 revenue to grow 0-2% QoQ with gross margin between 18-20% [4] - The company added 20k 12-inch wafer capacity in Q3 and plans to add another 30k in Q4, reaching total capacity of 950k 8-inch equivalent wafers by year-end [4] - CAPEX in Q3 was RMB 8.4 billion, down 48% QoQ, returning to Q1 2023 levels [4] Financial Performance - 2024E revenue is projected at RMB 57.5 billion, up 27.1% YoY [5] - 2024E net profit attributable to parent company is estimated at RMB 3.8 billion, down 20.2% YoY [5] - 2024E gross margin is forecast at 19.4%, with net margin of 6.7% [5] - ROE is expected to be 2.6% in 2024, improving to 3.9% by 2026 [5][7] - 2024E EPS is projected at RMB 0.48, with P/E of 193x and P/B of 5.11x [4][7] Industry Outlook - China's 12-inch wafer capacity is expected to account for 25% of global capacity by 2026, becoming the world's largest [4] - SMIC is well-positioned to benefit from the localization trend in wafer manufacturing [4] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a moderate recovery, with consumer markets gradually improving [4] Valuation and Projections - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to parent company is projected at RMB 3.8 billion, RMB 4.9 billion, and RMB 6.1 billion respectively [4] - 2024-2026 EPS is estimated at RMB 0.48, RMB 0.61, and RMB 0.77 respectively [4] - 2024-2026 P/E ratios are projected at 193x, 152x, and 122x respectively [4] - 2024-2026 P/B ratios are estimated at 5x, 4.9x, and 4.7x respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a continuous adjustment in the holdings of public funds in the pharmaceutical sector, with a current holding ratio of 9.66%, down by 0.22 percentage points from the previous quarter [5][13]. Core Insights - In Q3 2024, public funds have reduced their exposure to the pharmaceutical sector, with the highest historical holding ratio recorded at 18.23% in Q2 2020 [5][13]. - The secondary industry holdings within the pharmaceutical sector show significant declines in medical devices, biological products, and traditional Chinese medicine, while chemical pharmaceuticals and medical services have seen notable increases [5][21]. - The top ten pharmaceutical stocks by total market value held by public funds in Q3 2024 include: Heng Rui Pharmaceutical (37.37 billion), Mai Rui Medical (36.56 billion), WuXi AppTec (19.36 billion), and others, with significant increases in holdings for WuXi AppTec, Kanglong Chemical, and others [6][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Sector Holdings - Public funds' holdings in the pharmaceutical sector have decreased, with a current ratio of 9.66% [5][13]. - The breakdown of secondary industry holdings shows: Chemical Pharmaceuticals at 2.94% (+0.31pct), Medical Devices at 2.72% (-0.52pct), Medical Services at 1.99% (+0.47pct), Biological Products at 0.99% (-0.18pct), Traditional Chinese Medicine at 0.77% (-0.26pct), and Pharmaceutical Commerce at 0.24% (-0.04pct) [21][22]. 2. Individual Stock Analysis - The top ten pharmaceutical stocks by total market value held by public funds are: Heng Rui Pharmaceutical (37.37 billion), Mai Rui Medical (36.56 billion), WuXi AppTec (19.36 billion), and others [27][31]. - The stocks with the largest increases in holdings include Heng Rui Pharmaceutical (+11.34 billion), WuXi AppTec (+7.09 billion), and Ai Er Eye Hospital (+4.82 billion) [31][32]. - Conversely, the stocks with the largest decreases in holdings include Mai Rui Medical (-4.93 billion), Nuotai Biological (-1.70 billion), and Xingqi Eye Medicine (-1.67 billion) [31][32].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in global corn and wheat production while forecasting a decrease in soybean production [2] - The USDA's November 2024 forecast indicates a global corn production of 1.219 billion tons for the 2024/25 season, a decrease of 9.71 million tons from the previous season, but an increase of 2.21 million tons from the October forecast [20] - Global wheat production is projected at 795 million tons for the 2024/25 season, an increase of 4.31 million tons from the previous season [20] - Soybean production is expected to be 425 million tons, an increase of 30.67 million tons from the previous season, but a decrease of 3.52 million tons from the October forecast [20] Summary by Sections Corn - Global corn production for 2024/25 is forecasted at 1.219 billion tons, down 9.71 million tons from 2023/24, but up 2.21 million tons from the previous forecast [20] - Global corn consumption is expected to rise to 1.229 billion tons, an increase of 10 million tons from the previous season [20] - The ending stock for global corn is projected at 304 million tons, a decrease of 10 million tons from the previous season [20] - The corn export volume is expected to be 190 million tons, a decrease of 5.82 million tons from the previous season [20] Wheat - Global wheat production for 2024/25 is forecasted at 795 million tons, an increase of 4.31 million tons from 2023/24 [20] - Global wheat consumption is expected to reach 803 million tons, an increase of 5.66 million tons from the previous season [20] - The ending stock for global wheat is projected at 258 million tons, a decrease of 8.68 million tons from the previous season [20] Soybeans - Global soybean production is forecasted at 425 million tons for 2024/25, an increase of 30.67 million tons from 2023/24, but a decrease of 3.52 million tons from the October forecast [20] - Global soybean consumption is expected to be 402 million tons, an increase of 18.10 million tons from the previous season [20] - The ending stock for global soybeans is projected at 132 million tons, an increase of 19.32 million tons from the previous season [20]