即时点评 行业有序开展检修,短期价格仍将低位承压 多晶硅行业 2024-07-04 星期四 事件: 硅业分会最新报价显示: 本周多晶硅 n 型产品价格稳定,p 型产品价格略有下调。n 型棒状硅 成交价格区间为 3.90-4.20 万元/吨,成交均价为 4.00 万元/吨,环 比持平;单晶致密料成交价格区间为 3.30-3.60 万元/吨,成交均价 为 3.43 万元/吨,环比下降 0.87%。n 型颗粒硅成交价格区间为 3.60- 3.70 万元/吨,成交均价为 3.65 万元/吨,环比持平。 点评观点: ➢ 硅料交易偏向冷淡,成交价格趋于稳定: 企业以执行前期订单为主,下游拉晶厂维持随采随购策略;短期看, 拉晶厂开工率仍处低位,导致硅料交易整体偏向于冷淡。本周 n 型棒 状硅有 4 家企业成交,p 型棒状硅有 3 家企业有成交,n、p 型硅料均 有较大成交量,部分企业已签单至本月中旬。具体来看,大厂 n 型小 料价格基本在 4 万元/吨左右维持稳定,且基本全部产能均转为 n 型, p 型多作为 n 型多晶硅生产中的瑕疵料存在,多数为一口价成交,不 再区分具体类型。 ➢ 企业有序开展检修,硅料供应量持续下调: ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 34.15, representing a potential upside of 35% from the current price of HKD 25.30 [1][6][13]. Core Insights - The company has made significant progress in global innovation, securing a partnership with Takeda for the exclusive licensing of its drug, Olverembatinib (耐立克®), which includes a substantial upfront payment and potential milestone payments totaling up to USD 1.2 billion [4][9]. - Olverembatinib has shown strong clinical efficacy, particularly in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), with notable response rates in various patient groups [5][10]. - The company's research pipeline is advancing well, with several promising drug candidates, including APG-2575 and APG-115, which have received regulatory approvals and are undergoing clinical trials [6][11][12]. Financial Summary - The company reported revenues of RMB 27.91 million in 2021, with projections of RMB 10.3 billion, RMB 5.3 billion, and RMB 9.1 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [22]. - Net profits are expected to be negative in the coming years, with estimates of RMB -2.32 billion, RMB -7.26 billion, and RMB -5.14 billion for the same periods [22]. - The company has a total market capitalization of HKD 80 billion and a net asset value of HKD 0.60 billion [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longyuan Power (0916.HK) with a target price of HKD 10.36, indicating a potential upside of 48% from the current price of HKD 7.02 [1][6]. Core Insights - The parent company, State Energy Investment Group, plans to inject renewable energy assets into Longyuan Power, which is expected to enhance both profitability and valuation. The anticipated scale of the renewable energy capacity to be injected is approximately 4 million kilowatts, supporting the company's goal of adding 30GW of wind and solar capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4][9]. - Recent government policies signal a positive outlook for the renewable energy sector, particularly regarding the consumption of non-fossil energy. The implementation of green certificate trading and energy-saving policies is expected to enhance the market for green electricity, thereby increasing the profitability of the renewable energy industry [5][10]. - Longyuan Power is positioned as a market leader with significant resource distribution advantages, and its valuation is expected to outperform the industry average, justifying a premium [6][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Data - As of June 28, 2024, Longyuan Power's market capitalization is HKD 122 billion, with total assets of RMB 239,915 million and net assets of RMB 82,026 million. The company has a total share capital of 8,360 million shares, and the 52-week price range is HKD 8.13 to HKD 4.23 [2][3]. Shareholder Information - The major shareholder is State Energy Investment Group, holding 54.91% of the shares [3]. Earnings Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 37,638 million in 2023 to RMB 42,949 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.1%. Net profit is expected to increase significantly from RMB 6,200 million in 2023 to RMB 8,724 million in 2024, representing a growth of 40.7% [7][14]. Dividend Policy - The report anticipates an increase in dividends, with the dividend per share expected to rise from RMB 11.7 in 2024 to RMB 36.7 by 2026, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.89% in 2024 [7][14]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of HKD 10.36 corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 9 times for 2024 and 8 times for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation compared to the current market price [6][11].

Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. stock market has shown mixed performance recently, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.96%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experienced declines of 0.16% and 0.94% respectively [26] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index saw a weekly decline of 2.63%, indicating a cyclical adjustment in the semiconductor sector [19][26] - Wall Street analysts express significant divergence regarding the sustainability of the current bull market, particularly focusing on technology stocks [5] Group 2: Company Performance - AMD is highlighted as having a promising outlook for the second half of the year, with over 100 clients in the AI accelerator space expected to increase their investments [22] - AMD's strategic positioning in the AI accelerator market is noted as impressive, with a strong customer base including major companies like Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle [22] - The report suggests that AMD's growth is driven by the increasing demand for AI, which is expected to boost both its PC product line and AI server demand [19][22] Group 3: Analyst Predictions - Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 5,200 to 5,600, citing ongoing earnings upgrades and profit growth extending beyond tech stocks [6] - Piper Sandler has designated AMD as a "Top Pick" with a target price of $175, reflecting confidence in its growth potential in the AI sector [22] - Morgan Stanley's strategist predicts a potential 22% decline in the U.S. stock market over the next six months due to various risks, despite recent gains [30]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the domestic distributed installation market, awaiting the implementation of electricity reform policies, with short-term terminal demand expected to remain weak [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in photovoltaic component bidding in May 2024, with approximately 7.9GW announced, representing a 76% month-on-month decrease, primarily driven by a reduction in large-scale component procurement projects [1] - The report notes that the market for silicon materials is experiencing a steady reduction in supply, with limited room for price declines, suggesting a stable market operation in the short term [1] - The penetration rate of N-type, bifacial, and large-size components is rapidly increasing, with N-type component bidding reaching 78.7GW in the first five months of 2024, accounting for 83.5% of total bids [1] Summary by Sections Section 1: Photovoltaic Component Bidding - In May 2024, the bidding for photovoltaic components saw a significant drop, with 7.9GW announced, a 76% decrease from the previous month, mainly in distributed project bids [1] - N-type component bidding reached 7.24GW in May, representing 91.6% of the total, with bifacial components making up 58.6% of the bids [1] Section 2: Silicon Material Prices - Multi-crystalline silicon prices have slightly decreased, with the average price at 40,000 RMB/ton, down 0.25% week-on-week, while single-crystal dense material prices fell by 6.23% to 34,600 RMB/ton [1] - The report indicates that the number of operational multi-crystalline silicon producers is 19, with 15 companies undergoing maintenance, which helps stabilize production growth [1] Section 3: Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the overall price of the industry chain will remain at the bottom level due to factors such as project delays in Europe and increased inventory, leading to a slowdown in demand in Q3 [2]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious subscription for Dida Chuxing (2559.HK) [1] Core Viewpoints - Dida Chuxing is a technology-driven platform in China providing ride-sharing and smart taxi services, aiming to create more transportation capacity while reducing environmental impact [1] - The company operates the second-largest ride-sharing platform in China, with a transaction volume of RMB 8.6 billion and 130 million rides in 2023, capturing a market share of 31.8% based on transaction volume [1] - Dida Chuxing offers services in 366 cities nationwide, with approximately 15.6 million certified private car owners, of which 32.0% were active in 2023 [1] - The company generates revenue primarily from service fees charged to private car owners and taxi drivers, as well as from advertising and other services [1] - Revenue figures for 2021, 2022, and 2023 were RMB 780 million, RMB 570 million, and RMB 820 million respectively, with adjusted net profits of RMB 240 million, RMB 84 million, and RMB 230 million [1] - The estimated market capitalization post-IPO is approximately HKD 7 billion, with a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of about 7.7 times and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of about 27 times, indicating reasonable valuation [1] Company Overview - Dida Chuxing aims to popularize ride-sharing by allowing private car owners to share their underutilized vehicle capacity with passengers, providing alternative transportation options in low-density urban areas or regions with insufficient public transport [1] - The IPO price range is set between HKD 5.00 and HKD 7.00, with a total fundraising amount of HKD 147 million based on a median price of HKD 6.00 per share [1] - The total number of shares offered is 39.09 million, with 35.18 million shares allocated for international placement and 3.90 million shares for public offering, representing approximately 90% and 10% respectively [1]

Investment Rating - The report recommends subscription for the company, Lao Pu Gold (6181.HK) [1] Core Viewpoints - Lao Pu Gold is a brand that integrates the original design, production, and sales of traditional Chinese gold products, emphasizing cultural value and product differentiation [1] - The company's revenue from solid gold products and gold-inlaid products accounted for 43.9% and 56% respectively in 2023, with both product categories contributing approximately 50% of total revenue in previous periods [1] - The company operates both online and offline retail, with offline store sales accounting for about 90% of total revenue, and currently has 33 stores across 14 cities in China, primarily in first-tier and new first-tier cities [1] - The target customer base consists mainly of high-net-worth individuals, aligning with the brand's positioning [1] - The market size of the traditional gold jewelry market in China was approximately RMB 157.3 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 64.6% from 2018 to 2023 [1] - The company's market share in the traditional gold jewelry market was 2.0% in 2022 and 0.6% in 2023, with the highest single-store sales among all gold jewelry brands in China [1] - Revenue and profit have shown significant growth, with revenues of RMB 12.94 billion and RMB 31.8 billion in 2021 and 2023 respectively, reflecting a CAGR of 58.6% [1] - Gross profit for the years 2021 to 2023 was RMB 5.2 billion, RMB 5.4 billion, and RMB 13.3 billion, with corresponding gross profit margins of 41.2% and 41.9% [1] - Net profit for the same period was RMB 1.1 billion, RMB 0.9 billion, and RMB 4.2 billion, with net profit margins of 9.0%, 7.3%, and 13.1% [1] - The company's market capitalization is approximately HKD 65.6 billion, with a static PE ratio of 14.4, slightly higher than the average PE of comparable companies at 14.18 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 48.29 per share, indicating a potential upside of 22.1% from the current price of HKD 39.55 [5][13]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the AI-driven smartphone replacement trend, with a strong partnership with major consumer electronics clients, enhancing its supply chain position [3][6]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China has reached a new high, with the company's parent, BYD Group, achieving significant sales growth, which is expected to strengthen market competitiveness [8]. - The collaboration with NVIDIA is expanding, allowing the company to develop advanced solutions in various sectors, including AI and autonomous mobile robots [4][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are RMB 161.31 billion (+24.1%), RMB 180.55 billion (+11.9%), and RMB 201.50 billion (+11.6%) respectively [5][13]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are RMB 5.04 billion (+24.8%), RMB 6.37 billion (+26.3%), and RMB 7.67 billion (+20.4%) respectively, with an average net profit growth rate of 23.8% over three years [5][13]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 8.0% in 2023 to 9.2% in 2026, reflecting operational efficiency [14]. Shareholder Information - The major shareholder, Golden Link Worldwide Limited, holds a 65.76% stake in the company, indicating strong control over corporate decisions [2].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of HKD 3.20, indicating a potential upside of 24.0% from the current price of HKD 2.58 [2][6][90]. Core Insights - Harbin Electric is one of China's largest state-owned enterprises in energy equipment manufacturing, with significant market shares in coal, hydro, and nuclear power equipment [3][14]. - The company has seen a substantial increase in coal power orders, with new orders reaching CNY 13.97 billion in 2023, a year-on-year growth of 101.6% [5][24]. - The energy sector in China is transitioning towards a new power system, where coal power remains a core component despite the rapid growth of renewable energy installations [4][34]. Company Overview - Harbin Electric is a key player in the energy equipment sector, producing major equipment for coal, hydro, nuclear, and gas power generation [3][14]. - The company has a historical significance, originating from the first five-year plan of China and has evolved into a crucial backbone of the national energy infrastructure [15][19]. Industry Analysis - The energy demand in China has been growing rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.4% over the past eight years [42]. - Coal power still accounts for a significant portion of the energy mix, with coal-fired generation representing 63% of total power generation in 2023, reflecting a 5 percentage point increase year-on-year [4][40]. - The government has set ambitious targets for renewable energy, with expectations for coal power to continue playing a supportive role in energy security [34][52]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42.5% in net profit from 2024 to 2026, with projected net profits of CNY 9.5 billion, CNY 13.9 billion, and CNY 16.8 billion respectively [6][88]. - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of CNY 367.9 billion, CNY 426.8 billion, and CNY 454.7 billion for the years 2024 to 2026 [87][88]. Order and Revenue Analysis - The company has experienced a consistent increase in order volumes, with total contract signings reaching CNY 43.57 billion in 2023, a 29.5% increase from the previous year [24][26]. - The revenue from coal power equipment is expected to rise as the company completes the delivery of previous low-cost orders, enhancing overall profitability [5][71]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the demand for coal power equipment will remain strong due to ongoing projects and the need for flexibility upgrades in existing coal plants [72][75]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the planned expansion of pumped storage capacity, with expectations for significant growth in hydro power orders [76][80].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious subscription for the company Yun Factory (2512.HK) [7] Core Insights - Yun Factory is an internet data center operator with a current market share of 0.6%. The company provides flexibility and redundancy by allowing access to multiple network service providers [7] - The company operates without owning or constructing its own data centers, instead managing data center space and cabinets procured from suppliers [7] - The business spans across 38 cities in 19 major provinces in China, with a recorded bandwidth usage of approximately 316,508 Gbps during the performance record period [7] - The company launched its edge computing services under the Lingjing Cloud brand in 2022, which began generating revenue in the same year [7] - Revenue increased from 464.3 million in 2021 to 695.9 million in 2023, with a profit of 142.2 million in 2023. The estimated market capitalization post-IPO is around 2.1 billion HKD, with a price-to-sales ratio of approximately 3 times based on the 2023 PS [7] Company Overview - The IPO details include a subscription price of 4.60 HKD per share, with a total fundraising amount of 337 million HKD based on the median offer price [7] - The total number of shares offered is 115 million, with 90% allocated for international placement and 10% for public offering [7] - The entry fee for investors is approximately 4,646.39 HKD [7]