Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, aligning with market expectations[1] - The dot plot indicates a median rate forecast increase of 50 basis points for next year to 3.9%, suggesting only two 25 basis point cuts, down from four previously anticipated[2] - Internal dissent was noted, with Cleveland Fed President advocating for no rate change, indicating differing opinions within the Fed[2] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Inflation Focus - Fed officials raised their 2025 PCE and core PCE inflation forecasts to 2.5%, up by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively from September[3] - GDP growth forecast for 2025 was adjusted slightly upward to 2.1%, an increase of 0.1% from previous estimates, with risks to growth seen as balanced[3] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 was lowered to 4.3%, down from 4.4% in September, indicating a more optimistic labor market outlook[3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Policy - The market decline post-announcement was attributed to the Fed's indication of a potential pause in rate cuts, which was more hawkish than expected[7] - The Fed's future policy adjustments will be data-dependent, increasing market uncertainty[7] - Despite the hawkish tone, the Fed's stable economic growth outlook suggests potential upward movement for US equities in the coming year, albeit at a slower pace than the latter half of this year[7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to the company, indicating a favorable outlook for its future performance [2]. Core Viewpoints - The approval of the clinical trial for the selective FGFR4 inhibitor, Ipagotene (ABSK011), represents a significant opportunity in the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), a market with limited effective drugs available [2]. - The company has demonstrated strong early clinical data for Ipagotene, with a 50% overall response rate (ORR) in patients previously treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors [2]. - The research and development (R&D) team, consisting of approximately 221 professionals, is focused on oncology, with a significant portion holding advanced degrees, indicating a strong foundation for innovation [2]. - The company has established a partnership with Merck, granting exclusive commercialization rights for Pimicotinib and related products in several regions, with a total agreement value of $605.5 million [2]. Summary by Sections Clinical Development - The approved clinical trial is a multi-center, randomized, double-blind study assessing the efficacy and safety of Ipagotene combined with best supportive care (BSC) versus placebo plus BSC in advanced or unresectable HCC patients with FGF19 overexpression [2]. - Approximately 30% of global HCC patients exhibit FGF19 overexpression, highlighting the need for targeted therapies in this area [2]. R&D and Innovation - The company has developed a pipeline of 16 oncology-focused drug candidates, with 10 currently in clinical stages, showcasing its commitment to advancing cancer treatment [2]. - The leadership team, including Dr. Xu Yaochang, Dr. Yu Hongping, and Dr. Chen Zhui, has a proven track record in successfully commercializing drug projects, enhancing the company's competitive edge in small molecule drug development [2]. Market Potential - The report emphasizes the significant market potential for Ipagotene in treating HCC, particularly given the lack of effective therapies for late-stage liver cancer patients [2]. - The company's innovative approach and efficient R&D processes position it well for future growth in the oncology sector, with the current valuation seen as undervalued [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Cautious Subscription" [2]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Youjia Innovation (2431.HK), is a supplier of intelligent driving and smart cockpit solutions in China, providing solutions including navigation, parking, and in-cabin functions. It offers customized L0 to L2+ level intelligent driving solutions and is actively developing advanced autonomous driving technologies. The company has achieved mass production for 35 automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) [2]. - The intelligent automotive solutions industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the global intelligent driving solutions market size increasing from CNY 107.1 billion in 2019 to CNY 268.7 billion in 2023, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.9%. It is expected to reach CNY 560.9 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 13.7% from 2024 to 2028. The global smart cockpit solutions market size grew from CNY 130.2 billion in 2019 to CNY 321.3 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 25.3%, and is projected to reach CNY 769.4 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 17.0% from 2024 to 2028 [2]. - The company ranks seventh in the intelligent driving solutions sector and fourth among emerging technology companies in China, with a market share of 0.6%. It has established advantages in the industry through its self-research capabilities and advanced intelligent mass production capabilities. With technological advancements, policy support, and increasing market demand, the company is expected to further expand its market share and achieve sustained growth [2]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue from 2021 to the first half of 2024 is as follows: CNY 175 million, CNY 279 million, CNY 476 million, and CNY 237 million respectively. The gross profit margins during the same period were 9.7%, 12.0%, 14.3%, and 14.1%. The losses during these periods were approximately CNY 140 million, CNY 221 million, CNY 207 million, and CNY 112 million [2]. - Based on the offering price, the company's market valuation upon listing is estimated to be approximately HKD 67.9 billion to HKD 80.6 billion, which corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of about 15 times for 2023 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MINISO, with a target price of $30.60, indicating a potential upside of 23.6% from the current price of $24.75 [1][2][17]. Core Insights - MINISO's overseas direct sales growth has exceeded expectations, with Q3 FY24 revenue increasing by 19% year-on-year to 45.2 billion RMB, driven by a 40% increase in overseas revenue [2][8]. - The gross margin for Q3 FY24 reached a historical high of 44.9%, up 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the increased contribution from overseas direct sales [2][12]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue and adjusted net profit of 48.5 billion RMB and 7.5 billion RMB, respectively, in Q4 FY24 [17]. Summary by Relevant Sections Domestic Business Performance - Domestic revenue for Q3 FY24 grew by 9% to 27.1 billion RMB, with MINISO's offline revenue increasing by 4% to 22.3 billion RMB [2][7]. - The number of domestic MINISO stores increased by 12% year-on-year to 4,520, with a same-store sales growth rate showing a slight decline [7][8]. Overseas Business Performance - Overseas revenue for Q3 FY24 reached 18.1 billion RMB, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase, with same-store sales growth in direct and agency markets showing high single-digit growth [2][8]. - The contribution of overseas revenue to total revenue increased from 32% last year to 37% this year, indicating successful global expansion [12][17]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY24E to FY26E are 171.2 billion RMB, 208.2 billion RMB, and 251.1 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 23.7%, 21.6%, and 20.6%, respectively [2][17]. - Adjusted net profit projections for the same period are 28.4 billion RMB, 34.6 billion RMB, and 42.2 billion RMB, with growth rates of 21.6%, 22.0%, and 21.7% [17].

证 券 研 究 报 告 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 即时点评 | | 减重不减肌药研发 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 1 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | IPO 申购指南 | 越疆（ 2432.HK | ） | | 建议谨慎申购 ...

Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience two rounds of short-term rebounds in 2024, driven by policy support and improved market confidence [15][19][23] - The first rebound occurred from January to May 2024, following a series of monetary easing policies and real estate support measures [15][19] - The second rebound took place from mid-September to early October 2024, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and further easing measures from the People's Bank of China [19][25] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market is projected to continue its upward trend in 2024, with major indices showing gains of over 15% by December [31][32] - The growth is attributed to strong economic fundamentals, with a 2.8% year-on-year GDP growth in Q3 2024 and a 7.9% increase in S&P 500 EPS from the beginning of the year [31][33] - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate cuts is expected to support market stability, with a focus on maintaining a balance between employment and inflation [37][38] Group 3: Japanese Stock Market - The Japanese stock market faced volatility in 2024, particularly due to unexpected interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, leading to significant market fluctuations [48] - Despite these challenges, Japan's economy showed signs of recovery, with a 1.2% year-on-year GDP growth in Q3 2024 and a stable unemployment rate of 2.4% [48] - The potential for further interest rate hikes in 2025 is anticipated as the Bank of Japan aims to normalize its monetary policy, which could influence market performance [48]

事件： 12 月 9 日，中央政治局会议在京闭幕，会后会议决议公布，强调三 大政策目标：1.社会民生全面好转：政策将更加关注社会民生的改 善，确保居民收入和生活质量的提升；2.地方政府运转良性：地方政 府的财政健康和运营效率将是政策的重点之一，避免地方债务风险加 剧；3.物价和资产价格正循环：政策将致力于稳定物价和资产价格， 避免通缩或通胀过度波动，形成良性的经济循环。 点评观点： 1、本次会议转向信号明显， 定调"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"表 明在明年宽松政策将继续加码，预期明年 LPR 有进一步下降空间。同 时，本次会议表示将实施"适度宽松的货币政策"，这一表述是 2008 年金融危机以来的首次，进一步确认决策层对于经济政策方针的转变。 强调"加强超常规逆周期政策调节"同属首次，或暗示后续将使用政 策工具箱中此前未使用过的工具。 2、本次会议对于股市楼市的方针是要"稳住楼市股市"，表明决策层 重视当前楼市对于经济带来的风险，后续楼市松绑或加码；而对于股 市的描述则能够直接为资本市场带来政策预期，这一态度与 9.24 以来 决策层对于资本市场的态度相一致，后续资本市场在中长期内具有政 策托底。 3、财政政 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an investment rating for the company [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The company announced the acquisition of a land use right in Vietnam's Nghe An province to expand production capacity by 10-15% in the first phase [4][5][6] - The total land area acquired is approximately 512,000 square meters, with a total payment of HKD 220 million (USD 28.66 million) to be paid in installments [7][8][9] - The company plans to invest HKD 500 million in factory construction over the next 15-21 months, with production expected to commence by March 2026 [11][12] - The expansion aligns with the growth trend in the international sportswear market, where the company has seen a 35.8% increase in sportswear and apparel revenue in H1 2024, accounting for 54.6% of total revenue [15][16][19] - The Vietnam facility is expected to enhance operational efficiency due to competitive labor costs and tariff advantages in the international supply chain [25][26][28] Industry Analysis - The international sportswear and leisurewear industry has maintained a growth trend, with the company benefiting from this trend as a core supplier of elastic fabrics [16][17] - From 2014 to 2023, the company's revenue CAGR was 9.5%, with sportswear business revenue CAGR at 31.6% [18] - The sportswear market continues to show potential for scale expansion and fabric upgrades, which aligns with the company's expansion plans [20][21][22] Operational Efficiency - The company's existing Vietnam production base has achieved double-digit profit margins, outperforming other facilities [27] - The new Vietnam expansion is expected to leverage local labor cost advantages and supply chain benefits to further improve operational efficiency and support long-term growth [28][30][31]

Investment Rating - The report recommends subscription for the company Maogeping (1318.HK) [5] Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading high-end beauty group in China, focusing on high-quality beauty products, professional makeup training, and personalized customer services, providing a comprehensive beauty experience [5] - The company's revenue is primarily derived from product sales and makeup training, accounting for 97.0%/3.0%, 96.4%/3.6%, and 96.4%/3.6% of total revenue for the years 2022, 2023, and the first half of 2024 respectively [5] - The company ranks seventh among the top ten high-end beauty groups in China by retail sales in 2023, with a market share of 1.8% [5] - The high-end beauty market in China is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.9% from 2023 to 2028, with the market size projected to reach 3110 billion CNY [5] - The company's revenue CAGR over the past three years is 35.3%, with a significant increase in net profit and net profit margin during the same period [5][6] Summary by Relevant Sections IPO Details - The IPO price range is set at 26.3-29.8 HKD, with a total fundraising amount of approximately 18.45 billion HKD [5] - The total number of shares available for subscription is 70.59 million, with 63.53 million shares allocated for international placement and 7.06 million shares for public offering [5] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the years 2021 to the first half of 2024 is projected to be 15.8 billion, 18.3 billion, 28.9 billion, and 19.7 billion CNY respectively, with a revenue growth of 41.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [5] - Net profit for the same period is expected to be 3.3 billion, 3.5 billion, 6.6 billion, and 4.9 billion CNY, with a net profit CAGR of 41.6% [5] - The net profit margin has shown a consistent upward trend, reaching 25.0% in the first half of 2024 [5] Valuation Analysis - Based on the median IPO price, the company's market capitalization is estimated at approximately 132.0 billion CNY, corresponding to a static PE ratio of 20.0, which is lower than the industry average of 26.3 [5][6]