| --- | --- | |------------|-------------| | | | | 目标价： | 8.28 港元 | | 现 价： | 4.74 港元 | | 预计升幅 : | 74.6% | 主要股东 相关报告 | --- | |-------------------------| | | | | | | | 研究部 | | 姓名：林兴秋 | | SFC ： BLM040 | | 电话： 0755-21519193 | | Email:linxq@gyzq.com.hk | 买入 创新推动业绩持续增长，创新药 RDC 管线丰富 24 年中期公司实现营收约 60.47 亿港元，同比增长 1.0%（剔除汇 率影响后增长 5.4%）。期内，公司拥有人应占溢利约为 15.58 亿港 元，同比增长 51.4%（剔除汇率影响后增长 58.0%）。主要业务板 块中，核药抗肿瘤及心脑血管精准介入诊疗科技产品表现尤为突 出，录得收入 3.43 亿港元，同比增长 140.8%，主要得益于核心产 品易甘泰®钇[90Y]的临床需求快速增加。新药如呼吸及危重症板 块的恩卓润®比斯海乐®和恩明润®比斯海乐®、心脑血管 ...

事件： 12 月 19 日，美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）公布最新利率决议，宣 布降息 25 基点，并公布最新利率点阵图及经济预测。决议公布后美 联储主席鲍威尔召开记者会答记者问。 点评观点： 1、降息 25 基点符合市场预期，但决议文本和点阵图显示美联储官员 立场更偏鹰派 决议文本变化不多，继续重申就业和通胀的风险大体均衡、坚定致力 于支持充分就业，缩表计划未变，最重要的变化在于新增了"考虑联 邦基金利率目标区间进一步调整的幅度和时机"这一表述，暗示未来 暂停降息的可能性增加，这一信号为 9 月份美联储启动降息后首次。 投票中克利夫兰联储主席希望保持利率不变，显示美联储内部对于本 次降息存在意见不统一。在点阵图方面，本次上调了明年的利率预期 中值 50 基点至 3.9%，折合 2 次 25 基点的降息，低于 9 月份时的 4 次 降息。 2、立场偏鹰或源于美联储官员的政策重心重新回归通胀 从本次公布的经济预测来看，美联储多数官员认为 PCE 及核心 PCE 在 2025 年面临更大的上升风险，对于两者的预测来到了 2.5%和 2.5%，较 9 月份的预测上升了 0.4%和 0.3%。与此同时官员们对于 G ...

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证 券 研 究 报 告 1 | --- | --- | |---------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | IPO 申购指南 | 佑驾创新（ 2431.HK ） | | 建议谨慎申购 | 2024-12-17 星期二 | | 一、 佑驾创新招 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MINISO, with a target price of $30.60, indicating a potential upside of 23.6% from the current price of $24.75 [1][2][17]. Core Insights - MINISO's overseas direct sales growth has exceeded expectations, with Q3 FY24 revenue increasing by 19% year-on-year to 45.2 billion RMB, driven by a 40% increase in overseas revenue [2][8]. - The gross margin for Q3 FY24 reached a historical high of 44.9%, up 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the increased contribution from overseas direct sales [2][12]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue and adjusted net profit of 48.5 billion RMB and 7.5 billion RMB, respectively, in Q4 FY24 [17]. Summary by Relevant Sections Domestic Business Performance - Domestic revenue for Q3 FY24 grew by 9% to 27.1 billion RMB, with MINISO's offline revenue increasing by 4% to 22.3 billion RMB [2][7]. - The number of domestic MINISO stores increased by 12% year-on-year to 4,520, with a same-store sales growth rate showing a slight decline [7][8]. Overseas Business Performance - Overseas revenue for Q3 FY24 reached 18.1 billion RMB, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase, with same-store sales growth in direct and agency markets showing high single-digit growth [2][8]. - The contribution of overseas revenue to total revenue increased from 32% last year to 37% this year, indicating successful global expansion [12][17]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY24E to FY26E are 171.2 billion RMB, 208.2 billion RMB, and 251.1 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 23.7%, 21.6%, and 20.6%, respectively [2][17]. - Adjusted net profit projections for the same period are 28.4 billion RMB, 34.6 billion RMB, and 42.2 billion RMB, with growth rates of 21.6%, 22.0%, and 21.7% [17].

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证 券 研 究 报 告 1 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | IPO 申购指南 | 越疆（ 2432.HK | ） | | 建议谨慎申购 ...

——2025年海外投资策略 利好政策持续落地，经济底气不断增强 报告日期： 2 0 2 4 - 1 2 - 1 2 研究部 姓名：张思达 S F C：B P T 2 2 7 电话：0 7 5 5 - 2 1 5 1 9 1 7 9 E m a i l : z h a n g s d @ g y z q . c o m . h k 证 券 研 究 报 告 请 务 必 阅 读 免 责 条 款 目录 1、 港股：把握结构性机会 2、 美股：整体上行但波动幅度或有增加 3、 日股：货币政策正常化环境下的估值修复 4、风险提示 1.1 2024年是国内主要风险进一步出清的一年 ➢ 2024年国内经济面出现一步的风险出清，主要表现在地产市场和信贷需求的回落： ➢ 2024年1-11月新房销售面积77,930.16 万平米，同比下降15.8%，其中住宅销售面积65,367.92万平米，同比下降17.7%。房屋 销售面积自2022年以来持续下降，但由于低基数效应的影响，2024年后下降的速度逐渐放缓，但同比降幅仍然达到15%以 上。另一方面，2014年1-11月新房累计销售额76,854.90 亿元，同比下降20.9%，其中 ...

事件： 12 月 9 日，中央政治局会议在京闭幕，会后会议决议公布，强调三 大政策目标：1.社会民生全面好转：政策将更加关注社会民生的改 善，确保居民收入和生活质量的提升；2.地方政府运转良性：地方政 府的财政健康和运营效率将是政策的重点之一，避免地方债务风险加 剧；3.物价和资产价格正循环：政策将致力于稳定物价和资产价格， 避免通缩或通胀过度波动，形成良性的经济循环。 点评观点： 1、本次会议转向信号明显， 定调"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"表 明在明年宽松政策将继续加码，预期明年 LPR 有进一步下降空间。同 时，本次会议表示将实施"适度宽松的货币政策"，这一表述是 2008 年金融危机以来的首次，进一步确认决策层对于经济政策方针的转变。 强调"加强超常规逆周期政策调节"同属首次，或暗示后续将使用政 策工具箱中此前未使用过的工具。 2、本次会议对于股市楼市的方针是要"稳住楼市股市"，表明决策层 重视当前楼市对于经济带来的风险，后续楼市松绑或加码；而对于股 市的描述则能够直接为资本市场带来政策预期，这一态度与 9.24 以来 决策层对于资本市场的态度相一致，后续资本市场在中长期内具有政 策托底。 3、财政政 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an investment rating for the company [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The company announced the acquisition of a land use right in Vietnam's Nghe An province to expand production capacity by 10-15% in the first phase [4][5][6] - The total land area acquired is approximately 512,000 square meters, with a total payment of HKD 220 million (USD 28.66 million) to be paid in installments [7][8][9] - The company plans to invest HKD 500 million in factory construction over the next 15-21 months, with production expected to commence by March 2026 [11][12] - The expansion aligns with the growth trend in the international sportswear market, where the company has seen a 35.8% increase in sportswear and apparel revenue in H1 2024, accounting for 54.6% of total revenue [15][16][19] - The Vietnam facility is expected to enhance operational efficiency due to competitive labor costs and tariff advantages in the international supply chain [25][26][28] Industry Analysis - The international sportswear and leisurewear industry has maintained a growth trend, with the company benefiting from this trend as a core supplier of elastic fabrics [16][17] - From 2014 to 2023, the company's revenue CAGR was 9.5%, with sportswear business revenue CAGR at 31.6% [18] - The sportswear market continues to show potential for scale expansion and fabric upgrades, which aligns with the company's expansion plans [20][21][22] Operational Efficiency - The company's existing Vietnam production base has achieved double-digit profit margins, outperforming other facilities [27] - The new Vietnam expansion is expected to leverage local labor cost advantages and supply chain benefits to further improve operational efficiency and support long-term growth [28][30][31]