证 券 研 究 报 告 1 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | IPO 申购指南 | | 毛戈平（ | 1318.HK ） | | 建议申购 | | | 2024-12-2 星期一 | | 毛戈平（ 1318.HK | | ）招股详情 | | | 名称及代码 | | 毛戈平（ 1318.HK ） | | | 独家保荐人 中金公司 | | | | | 上市日期 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 4.90, which corresponds to a PE ratio of approximately 14 times for FY25E [6][17]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 17.8% and a net profit growth of 23% for the first half of FY25, with total revenue reaching CNY 8.804 billion and net profit at CNY 1.130 billion [8][9]. - The main brands, Bosideng and Xuezhongfei, contributed nearly 90% of the business growth, while the women's clothing segment experienced a decline due to the consumer environment [4][9]. - The company has successfully expanded its self-operated channel for down jackets, achieving a growth of 36.7% [5][11]. - The inventory turnover days increased by 29 days to 189 days, reflecting the company's strategy to slow down the supply to distributors amid market uncertainties [13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of FY25, the company achieved a gross profit of CNY 4.391 billion, with a gross margin of 49.9%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [8][10]. - The net profit margin improved to 12.8%, up by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Revenue Breakdown - The down jacket business recorded revenue of CNY 6.063 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.7%, accounting for 68.9% of total revenue [9][10]. - The OEM processing business generated CNY 2.316 billion, up 13.4%, while the women's clothing segment saw a decline of 21.5% to CNY 308 million [9]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The overall gross margin remained stable, with the main brands' margins improving, but the women's clothing and other brands' margins declining [10]. - Distribution expenses as a percentage of revenue decreased, contributing positively to net profit [10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has invested in the Canadian luxury down jacket brand Moose Knuckles, enhancing its multi-brand matrix [15]. - New product lines, including sun protection clothing and multi-functional down jackets, have been introduced to capture off-season sales potential [14]. Future Outlook - Revenue projections for FY25E to FY27E are CNY 26.398 billion, CNY 29.856 billion, and CNY 33.477 billion, with expected growth rates of 13.7%, 13.1%, and 12.1% respectively [17]. - The company aims to maintain its growth trajectory through flexible supply chain management and strong marketing capabilities [16].

Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of HKD 14.9, implying a 55.6% upside from the current price of HKD 9.57 [1][16] Core Views - The company's revenue grew 19.6% YoY to RMB 6.87 billion in H1 2024, with order volume increasing over 30% YoY [3][7] - Net profit reached RMB 62 million, a 105.1% YoY increase, with net profit margin improving to 0.9% [3][7] - Same-city delivery revenue grew 19.2% YoY to RMB 4.04 billion, while last-mile delivery revenue increased 20.3% YoY to RMB 2.84 billion [3][9] - The company benefits from the rapid growth of the tea beverage market in lower-tier cities, with registered tea-related enterprises up 6.1x YoY [3][10][12] - The company's scale effect continues to drive profitability, supported by its extensive delivery network and efficient data algorithms [3][14][16] Business Performance - Non-meal delivery scenarios grew rapidly, with revenue up 32.4% YoY in H1 2024 [8] - Coverage in county-level markets expanded to over 1,200 counties, with revenue from these areas growing 51% YoY [8] - The company added over 6,000 new partner stores and increased its active merchant base to 550,000, up 45% YoY [8] - Revenue from consumer delivery grew 20.1% YoY to RMB 1.163 billion, driven by an expanding active user base and higher repurchase rates [8] Market Position - The company is a leading independent third-party instant delivery platform, with a strong position in the tea beverage delivery market [12] - During the 2024 Double 11 shopping festival, the company's daily delivery orders increased 43% YoY, with categories like beauty, beverages, and convenience stores seeing over 100% growth [13] - Last-mile delivery orders during Double 11 grew 160% YoY, and external cooperation orders increased 149% YoY [13] Growth Drivers - Deepening cooperation with key accounts (KA) and leveraging synergies with SF Holding for last-mile delivery [14][16] - Expanding commercial scenarios in lower-tier cities to further enhance scale effects [14][16] - The company's PS ratio for 2024 is estimated at 0.9x, reflecting its strong market position and commercial potential [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music (TME.US) with a target price of $13.9, indicating a potential upside of 20.5% from the current price of $11.51 [2][5][15] Core Insights - The growth in super membership is expected to drive an increase in ARPU (Average Revenue Per User), with non-subscription revenue exceeding expectations. In Q3 2024, online music revenue reached 5.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.0%. Subscription revenue also grew by 20% year-on-year, amounting to 3.8 billion yuan [3][8] - The company is exploring new avenues in the short drama sector, leveraging its strengths in the music field. Tencent Music is collaborating on a micro-drama titled "Debut, Sound Wave Youth," utilizing its extensive music copyright library and resources [4][14] Summary by Sections Online Music Business - In Q3 2024, Tencent Music's online music business generated revenue of 5.48 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.4% year-on-year growth and a 1.0% quarter-on-quarter growth. Subscription revenue was 3.8 billion yuan, also up 20% year-on-year and 2.7% quarter-on-quarter. The number of paid users increased to 119 million, a 15.5% year-on-year rise, with a payment rate of 20.7% [3][8][9] Social Entertainment Business - The social entertainment segment has faced challenges, with revenue declining by 24% year-on-year to 1.54 billion yuan in Q3 2024. The monthly ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) decreased by 25% year-on-year [10] Other Online Music Business - Other online music revenue, including advertising and digital album licensing, grew by 20% year-on-year to 1.64 billion yuan, although it saw a slight decline of 2.6% quarter-on-quarter [11][13] Future Growth Drivers - Future growth in online music subscription revenue is anticipated to be driven by the super membership program and stable growth in paid membership numbers. As of September, over 10 million super members were reported, contributing significantly to ARPU [9][10] Market Position - Tencent Music's market position remains strong, with a stable user base and significant monetization potential. The report highlights the company's efforts in cost reduction and efficiency improvements, alongside innovative business developments such as super memberships and short dramas [5][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Cautious Subscription" [2]. Core Insights - The company, Dmall Smart (2586.HK), is a leading provider of retail digitalization solutions in China, holding a market share of 6.5% as of 2023. It has successfully expanded its operations to other Asian countries, including Hong Kong, Cambodia, Singapore, Malaysia, Macau, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Brunei [2]. - The company's revenue has grown from 848 million RMB in 2021 to 1.585 billion RMB in 2023, indicating strong growth potential in the retail digitalization market [2]. - The retail digitalization rates in China and Asia are significantly lower than in the U.S., suggesting substantial room for growth in the sector [2]. - The company's market capitalization post-IPO is estimated to be around 26.7 billion HKD, with a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of approximately 15 times based on 2023 figures, indicating a relatively high valuation [2]. Summary by Sections IPO Details - The IPO price is set at 30.21 HKD, with a total fundraising amount of 623 million HKD based on the median price [2]. - The total number of shares offered is 25.77 million, with 90% allocated for international placement and 10% for public offering [2]. Market Context - The local retail digitalization market in Asia is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.4% from 2024 to 2028, reaching a market size of 33.5 trillion RMB by 2028 [2]. - The company’s proprietary Dmall SaaS operating system integrates various functions to help retailers optimize their operations, thereby reducing stockouts and increasing sales revenue [2].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - The company announced a share incentive plan on November 25, which includes granting 11.93 million restricted shares, accounting for approximately 2.8% of the total shares issued [4][5]. - The performance targets for the incentive plan require net profit growth rates of no less than 21% for 2025, 17% for 2026, and 15% for 2027 [6][11]. - The share vesting period is structured in three phases, with 33% of shares granted after meeting performance targets for 2025 and 2026, and 34% for 2027 [10][8]. - The incentive plan aims to recognize the contributions of qualified individuals, attract talent, and align the interests of employees with the company's long-term goals [18][21]. Summary by Sections Share Incentive Plan - The company plans to grant 11.93 million restricted shares as part of its incentive program, which represents 2.8% of total shares [4][5]. - The performance targets set for net profit growth are 21% for 2025, 17% for 2026, and 15% for 2027, excluding the impact of restricted share unit cost allocation [6][11][12]. - The incentive plan includes four executive directors, three supervisors, and 148 employees, with the latter group receiving 82.9% of the total shares granted [14][15]. Management Confidence - The incentive plan reflects the company's confidence in profit growth, with projected net profit growth of 26% for 2024, which is higher than previous estimates of 25% [25][24]. - The management's confidence in long-term growth and market competitiveness is emphasized through this incentive program [30][33]. Talent Development - The broad scope of the incentive plan, covering 148 employees, highlights the company's commitment to talent development and the connection between employee value and company performance [33].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - In October 2024, the company's total electricity sales volume reached 9,750,483 MWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.59%. For the first ten months of 2024, the total sales volume was 108,220,668 MWh, up 30.56% compared to the same period last year [2][3]. - The performance of different power generation types in October 2024 showed significant growth in wind and coal power, with wind power increasing by 39.89% and coal power by 30.42%. In contrast, hydropower experienced a seasonal decline of 25.15% [3]. - The overall electricity sales data indicates strong performance, with wind, coal, and natural gas generation all achieving high growth rates. The growth in wind power is attributed to improved wind resources and the acquisition of assets from the parent company, as well as the increase in self-built wind and solar capacity [3]. Summary by Category Electricity Sales Volume - Total electricity sales volume for October 2024 was 9,750,483 MWh, a 20.59% increase year-on-year. The first ten months of 2024 saw a total of 108,220,668 MWh, up 30.56% from the previous year [2]. - Breakdown by generation type for October 2024: - Hydropower: 825,616 MWh, down 25.15% year-on-year - Wind power: 2,292,301 MWh, up 39.89% year-on-year - Photovoltaic: 1,824,368 MWh, up 12.83% year-on-year - Coal power: 4,467,964 MWh, up 30.42% year-on-year - Natural gas: 203,777 MWh, up 28.10% year-on-year [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain stable growth in performance and dividends in the medium to long term. The restructuring of hydropower assets is anticipated to enhance overall valuation, making it a key area of focus [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jiuyuan Gene (2566.HK) is "Cautious Subscription" [2] Core Viewpoints - Jiuyuan Gene, established in 1993, focuses on four rapidly growing therapeutic areas: orthopedics, metabolic diseases, oncology, and hematology. The company has developed a diversified product portfolio, including eight marketed products and over ten products in the pipeline, with a notable product being the bone repair material containing rhBMP-2, which ranks first in sales revenue in China's bone repair material market in 2023 [2] - The orthopedic industry is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.7% over the next eight years, while the metabolic disease sector is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.5% during the same period. Jiuyuan Gene's pipeline products are well-positioned to capitalize on this growth [2] - The company reported revenues of RMB 1,307.3 million, RMB 1,125.4 million, RMB 1,287.4 million, and RMB 702.4 million for the years 2021, 2022, 2023, and the first half of 2024, respectively. The net profits for the same periods were RMB 119.4 million, RMB 59.9 million, RMB 119.8 million, and RMB 105.3 million [2] - Post-IPO, the company's market capitalization is expected to be between HKD 28.2 billion and HKD 30.8 billion, with a static price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of approximately 20 times, indicating a reasonable valuation. The competitive landscape shows that the company has a significant advantage in orthopedics, supporting the cautious subscription recommendation [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company, suggesting continued active monitoring of its performance and potential growth opportunities [15]. Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of 92.5 billion RMB in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.5%, with adjusted net profit reaching 6.3 billion RMB, up 4.4% year-on-year [4]. - The smartphone business continues to strengthen, with revenue of 47.5 billion RMB in Q3 2024, a 13.9% increase year-on-year, and a market share of 13.8% globally [7]. - The IoT and lifestyle products segment saw revenue growth of 26.3% year-on-year, reaching 26.1 billion RMB, with a record high gross margin of 20.8% [11]. - The electric vehicle segment reported revenue of 9.7 billion RMB in Q3 2024, a 52.3% increase from the previous quarter, with a gross margin of 17.1% [13]. Summary by Sections Smartphone Business - The company sold 43.1 million smartphones in Q3 2024, a 3.1% increase year-on-year, with an average selling price (ASP) of 1,102 RMB, up 10.6% [7]. - The company ranked third globally in smartphone shipments for 17 consecutive quarters, with a market share increase in mainland China to 14.7% [7]. IoT and Lifestyle Products - The company achieved a record high of 6.86 million monthly active users globally, a 10.1% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in air conditioning, refrigerator, and washing machine sales [11]. - Internet services revenue reached 8.5 billion RMB in Q3 2024, with a gross margin of 77.5%, up 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [11]. Electric Vehicle Segment - The company delivered 39,790 units of the Xiaomi SU7 in Q3 2024, with an average price of 238,650 RMB per unit, and expects to exceed 20,000 units in monthly deliveries post-October [13]. - The upcoming Xiaomi SU7 Ultra is priced at 817,900 RMB, with significant pre-orders indicating strong market interest [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 0.75, representing a potential upside of 44% from the current price of HKD 0.52 [2][12]. Core Insights - The company has shown a strong growth trend in wind power generation, with a total equity generation of 682.04 GWh in October 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 16.27%. Wind power generation specifically increased by 18.98% [5][9]. - The company is actively adjusting its business strategy to reduce costs and improve efficiency in response to a competitive market environment. Management expenses decreased by 4.1% year-on-year, and the average financing cost dropped by 45 basis points to 4.15% [6][10]. - Recent share buybacks have enhanced earnings per share (EPS), with a total of 29.93 million shares repurchased at prices between HKD 0.53 and HKD 0.54, totaling HKD 15.96 million. The current valuation metrics indicate a dynamic PE of approximately 3.5 times and a PB of about 0.46 times, highlighting a low valuation level and a dividend yield of around 7.69% [7][11]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of RMB 2.679 billion in 2022, with a projected revenue of RMB 3.235 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25% [8][17]. - Net profit is expected to grow from RMB 964 million in 2023 to RMB 1.121 billion in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 16.3% [8][17]. - The company’s total assets are projected to be RMB 30.455 billion in 2024, with total liabilities of RMB 21.825 billion, resulting in a shareholder equity of RMB 8.371 billion [17][18].