行 业 研 究 11 月新能源汽车表现亮眼 ——汽车行业研究周报 投资摘要： 每周一谈：11 月新能源汽车表现亮眼 2024 年 11 月全国汽车销量、库存情况等数据公布，车企新车型持续发布，居民 购车需求持续释放，汽车市场热度延续，市场表现持续向好。新能源汽车销量增 速依然保持较高水平。伴随各项刺激政策效果不断显现，汽车销量有望继续攀升， 全年销量有望创历史新高。 总体销量：11 月汽车销量为 331.6 万辆，同比增加 11.7%。今年 1-11 月，汽车 累计销量为 2794 万辆，同比增长 3.7%。 库存情况：11 月汽车经销商综合库存系数为 1.1，同比减少 22.4%，环比增加 低估值零部件龙头，如华域汽车、福耀玻璃等；电动化和智能化的优质赛道核心 标的，如华阳集团、德赛西威、瑞可达、科博达、伯特利等；国产替代概念受益 股，如菱电电控、三花智控、星宇股份、上声电子、中鼎股份等；强势整车企业 对核心零部件的拉动效应，如拓普集团、文灿股份、旭升集团等。 本周重点关注组合：比亚迪 20%、理想汽车 20%、拓普集团 20%、德赛西威 20% 和上声电子 20%。 市场回顾： | --- | --- | ...

行 业 研 究 11 月动力电池装车量稳步增长 ——电力设备行业研究周报 投资摘要： 每周一谈：11 月动力电池装车量稳步增长 新能源汽车销量稳定增长。2024 年 11 月，我国新能源汽车销量为 151.2 万辆， 同比增长 47.38%，渗透率为 45.6%。2024 年 1-11 月，新能源汽车销量为 1126 万辆，同比增长 35.6%，渗透率为 40.3%。随着各大厂家加速向新能源转型，我 们对新能源车市场的发展保持长期乐观的态度。 装车增速依然可观。11 月，我国动力电池装车量 67.2GWh，同比增长 50%。2024 年 1-11 月，我国动力电池累计装车量 473GWh，同比增长 39%，增速依然可观， 维持较高水平。 磷酸铁锂动力电池装车量同比高增长。11 月，我国磷酸铁锂动力电池装车量 53.6 GWh，占总装车量 80%，同比增长 84%；三元动力电池装车量 13.6 GWh，占 总装车量 20%，同比减少 13.4%。2024 年 1-11 月，国内磷酸铁锂动力电池装车 量 348 GWh，占总装车量 74%，同比增长 51%；三元电池装车量 124.6 GWh， 占总装车量 26% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronic industry [4]. Core Insights - The U.S. has implemented export controls on semiconductor equipment and software to China, affecting 136 Chinese semiconductor manufacturers and related entities. This may accelerate the domestic production of advanced semiconductor equipment and materials [2][25]. - OpenAI has initiated a 12-day product launch cycle, which is expected to catalyze growth in AI applications. The AI application sector has shown strong performance, with several companies reporting significant growth [3][28]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift towards domestic production due to export restrictions, which may alleviate supply pressures and enhance self-sufficiency [2][27]. Market Review - The Shenwan Electronics Industry Index rose by 1.61% from December 2 to December 6, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.16%. The index has increased by 19.85% year-to-date, ranking 5th among 31 industries [12][16]. - Within the electronics sub-industries, optical components, analog chip design, printed circuit boards, and consumer electronics parts showed relatively strong performance, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.89%, 2.87%, 2.68%, and 2.09% respectively [16][19]. Industry Dynamics - The global wafer foundry industry saw a 27% year-over-year revenue increase in Q3 2024, driven by strong AI demand and a faster-than-expected economic recovery in mainland China [36][38]. - The global semiconductor market is projected to reach $620.2 billion in 2024, with mainland China accounting for 30.1% of this market. The market is expected to grow by 17% year-over-year [39][40]. - Logic chips and memory chips are expected to see significant growth in 2024, with increases of 21% and 61.3% respectively, while other segments may experience declines [40].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with a warning to be cautious of increased volatility due to the market's high position [4][33]. - Last week, major indices showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.33% and the CSI 300 Index increasing by 1.44% [16][17]. - All 31 first-level industry indices tracked by Shenwan Securities experienced an increase, with the top five performing sectors being steel, coal, machinery equipment, media, and comprehensive [18][19]. Group 2 - The total trading volume last week was 7,958.41 billion shares, with a trading value of 86,228.12 billion yuan, indicating a robust market activity [20][21]. - The number of stocks reaching historical highs was 21, while 4 stocks hit historical lows, with significant numbers of stocks also achieving new highs over various time frames [23][25]. - Margin financing data showed an increase of approximately 194 billion yuan in weekly financing balance and a 4 billion yuan increase in weekly margin short balance [26][28].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [7] Core Insights - The average price of market pigs has decreased by 5.22% week-on-week, reaching 15.62 CNY/kg as of December 6, 2024, indicating a significant drop after a period of gradual recovery [21][35] - The average price of piglets has also fallen by 3.94%, with the average price for 7kg piglets at 383.33 CNY/head [21] - The planned slaughter volume for December is expected to increase by 6.58% month-on-month, indicating a faster pace of slaughter compared to November [33] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The average weight of market pigs has decreased to 123.70 kg, down 0.02% week-on-week, while the average post-slaughter weight is 91.86 kg, down 0.04% [4][28] - The price difference for standard fat pigs has narrowed slightly to -0.51 CNY/kg, suggesting potential price advantages for fat pigs as demand may rise with colder weather [28] Profitability - The average breeding profit for self-bred pigs is 172.31 CNY/head, a decrease of 23.47 CNY/head from the previous week, while the loss for purchased piglets has increased to 47.10 CNY/head [5][34] - The report indicates that leading companies are expected to maintain improved profitability in Q4, driven by stable pig prices and improved earnings [37] Investment Strategy - Recommendations include focusing on leading companies in pig farming such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture, which have scale and cost advantages [6][40] - In the poultry sector, attention is drawn to companies with proprietary breeding sources like Shennong Development and Yisheng Livestock [40] Industry Trends - The report notes a shift in slaughtering sentiment, with some regions experiencing accelerated slaughter and price reductions, influenced by market pressures [35] - The overall performance of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector index increased by 0.67%, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index which rose by 1.44% [42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive sector [2]. Core Insights - In November, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.446 million units, representing an 18% year-on-year increase and an 8% increase compared to the previous month. Cumulatively, retail sales for the year have reached 20.281 million units, a 5% year-on-year growth. Notably, sales of new energy vehicles in November were 1.277 million units, up 52% year-on-year and 7% month-on-month, with a cumulative total of 9.605 million units for the year, reflecting a 41% year-on-year increase [1][15][21]. - The report anticipates that automakers will continue to push for sales towards the end of the year, maintaining a high growth rate for annual passenger vehicle sales. Five significant new models are expected to launch in December, including the Galaxy Starship 7 EM-i, which features advanced hybrid technology and competitive pricing [1][16][21]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The automotive market is experiencing strong growth due to government incentives for vehicle scrappage and trade-in programs. The report highlights the robust performance of the passenger vehicle market in November, with significant growth in both overall and new energy vehicle sales [1][15]. Investment Strategy and Key Focus - The report suggests focusing on undervalued leading companies in the automotive sector, particularly those benefiting from performance improvements. Key areas of interest include: - Domestic automakers with a first-mover advantage in the new energy sector, such as BYD, Changan Automobile, Geely, and Li Auto. - Stable, undervalued leading component manufacturers like Huayu Automotive and Fuyao Glass. - Core players in the electrification and intelligence sectors, including Huayang Group, Desay SV, Ruikeda, and others. - Companies benefiting from domestic substitution trends, such as Lingdian Electric Control and Sanhua Intelligent Control. - Strong vehicle manufacturers that drive demand for core components, like Top Group and Wencan Co [2][21][22]. Market Review - The automotive sector experienced a weekly increase of 3.56%, ranking 8th among 31 sectors. It outperformed the CSI 300 index, which saw a rise of 1.44%. The report also details the performance of various sub-sectors, with automotive services and components showing notable gains [4][24].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights an acceleration in equity changes among small and medium-sized brokerages, indicating a rising expectation for mergers and acquisitions within the industry. This trend reflects a reassessment of value by major shareholders and an active internal consolidation within the brokerage sector [5][13][15]. Summary by Sections Market Review - During the week of December 2-6, the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.44%, while the securities industry index rose by 2.37%. Within the sector, 46 stocks increased, 2 remained flat, and 2 declined [6][19]. - The top five performing stocks were: Harbin Investment, Hualin Securities, Tianfeng Securities, Southwest Securities, and Pacific Securities. The bottom five were: Guosheng Financial Holdings, Huaxi Securities, Great Wall Securities, First Venture, and Jinlong Holdings [20][21]. Investment Strategy - The securities industry index outperformed the CSI 300 Index, maintaining a strong market position. As the end of 2024 approaches, investor enthusiasm remains high, and market activity is vibrant. The report maintains a view that the short-term outlook will be characterized by strong consolidation at high levels [7][34]. Important News - The report notes that as of the end of October, the total scale of private asset management by brokerages reached 55,113.7 billion, a decrease of 1,816.3 billion from September, but still an increase of 2,067.85 billion compared to the end of last year, reflecting a 3.9% growth [38]. - The report also mentions that the scale of actively managed asset management plans was 28,935.42 billion, accounting for 52.5% of the total private asset management business of brokerages [39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the photovoltaic industry [1] Core Insights - Recent self-regulatory agreements among over 30 photovoltaic companies aim to control production capacity and stabilize market prices, promoting healthy industry development [2][18] - The prices of photovoltaic products, including polysilicon, silicon materials, and battery cells, have shown significant declines in the first half of the year but have stabilized in the second half [19][20] - The photovoltaic supply chain is expected to experience severe losses in Q1 to Q3 of 2024, with net profits for the polysilicon and silicon wafer segment projected at -14.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 149.3%, and for the photovoltaic battery and module segment at -10.35 billion yuan, a decline of 126.1% [25][26] Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The signing of self-regulatory agreements is intended to prevent disorderly competition and ensure a stable market environment for the photovoltaic industry [2][18] Market Review - The electric equipment industry saw a weekly change of 0.29%, ranking 30th among 31 primary industries, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and other indices [30] - The top five gainers in the electric equipment sector included Xinling Electric and Electric Wind Power, while the top five losers included Hongyuan Green Energy and Aiko Solar [30] Price Changes in Key Materials - The report indicates that prices for polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells have stabilized after significant declines earlier in the year [19][20] - The report provides detailed insights into the profitability of the photovoltaic supply chain, highlighting severe losses expected in early 2024 [25][26] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on companies likely to benefit from rising photovoltaic module prices and possessing competitive product advantages, such as Longi Green Energy and Aiko Solar [3]

Group 1 - The report indicates that major indices experienced a rebound last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.81% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.23% [16][17] - Among the 31 primary industry indices tracked, 28 showed an increase while 3 declined, with the top five performing sectors being textiles and apparel, retail, light industry manufacturing, social services, and media [16][17] - The total trading volume reached 6,716.35 million shares, with a transaction value of 76,154.24 billion yuan, indicating a robust market activity despite a decrease in trading volume [19][20] Group 2 - The report suggests that the market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with high market activity and numerous trading opportunities, recommending investors to adopt a short-term wave trading mindset [4][33] - The margin financing balance increased by approximately 11.8 billion yuan, while the margin short selling balance rose by about 0.1 billion yuan, reflecting a positive sentiment in the market [3][26] - Historical data shows that 18 stocks reached new highs while 4 hit new lows, with significant numbers of stocks achieving new highs over various time frames [24][25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [5]. Core Insights - The domestic photovoltaic (PV) installation has seen significant growth, with a total of approximately 793.11 GW installed by the end of October 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28% [2][15]. - Wind power installations also increased, with a total of 486.17 GW installed by the end of October 2023, marking a year-on-year growth of 16% [2][15]. - The report highlights the increasing investment in power generation and grid infrastructure, with power generation investment reaching 718.1 billion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year, and grid investment at 450.2 billion yuan, up 20.7% year-on-year [17][19]. - External disturbances, such as the U.S. Department of Commerce's preliminary anti-dumping ruling on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells from Southeast Asia, may impact short-term exports but are not expected to alter the long-term demand for PV installations [25]. Summary by Sections 1. Photovoltaic and Wind Power Installation - In October 2023, the national wind power installation reached 6.62 GW, a year-on-year increase of 75% and a month-on-month increase of 20% [2][15]. - The cumulative wind power installation for the first ten months of 2023 was 44.83 GW, with a total of 486.17 GW installed by the end of October [2][15]. - The national photovoltaic installation in October 2023 was 20.19 GW, a year-on-year increase of 38% but a month-on-month decrease of 2% [2][15]. - The cumulative photovoltaic installation for the first ten months of 2023 was approximately 183.62 GW, with a total of 793.11 GW installed by the end of October [2][15]. 2. Power Generation Structure - As of the end of October 2023, thermal power accounted for the highest share of installed capacity at 45%, followed by photovoltaic and wind power at 25% and 15%, respectively [21][22]. - In terms of power generation, thermal power contributed 66.9% of the total, while photovoltaic and wind power accounted for 4.4% and 9.7%, indicating significant room for improvement in grid-connected generation [22]. 3. Investment Trends - The report notes a substantial increase in investment in power generation and grid projects, with total investments of 718.1 billion yuan and 450.2 billion yuan, respectively, for the first ten months of 2023 [17][19]. - The construction of energy storage systems and upgrades to grid systems are expected to maintain high levels of activity due to the transition to a new power system and carbon neutrality goals [19]. 4. External Factors - The U.S. has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into photovoltaic cells from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, with potential tariffs ranging from 0% to 271.28% [25]. - Despite these short-term disturbances, the report emphasizes that technological advancements will continue to lower the cost of photovoltaic power generation, leading to increased domestic and global demand for installations [25]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies likely to benefit from the construction of a new power system, such as Nanjing Grid Technology and Deyang Co., Ltd. [29].