证券研究报告 公用事业|电力 行业点评报告 2024年05月31日 强化绿电需求侧指标 有望改善新能源消纳 看好 ——《2024－2025 年节能降碳行动方案》点评 （维持） 投资要点： 证券分析师 ➢ 事件：国务院2024年5月29日发布《2024—2025年节能降碳行动方案》。 刘晓宁 S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com ➢ 文件提及非化石能源需求侧强制性指标，在近年减碳政策中相对少见，我们认为需要引起重视， 后续落地情况对新能源消纳改善至关重要。文件提出化石能源消费减量替代行动、非化石能源 联系人 消费提升行动、钢铁行业节能降碳等10大重点任务，其中与可再生能源行业相关的定量指标 刘晓宁 包括：1）到2025年底，全国非化石能源发电量占比达到39%左右（2023年数据为38.8%， S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 实际提升幅度非常有限，由此我们分析政策重点是落实存量消纳，而非进一步提升新能源装机 增速，与全文的控产能基调一致）；2）“十四五”前三年节能降碳指标进度滞后地区要实行 板块表现： 新上项 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) [1][4] Core Views - The company is a leading innovation-driven BigPharma in China, with significant potential for international expansion [1] - The company has 8 innovative drugs approved for marketing, all included in the National Reimbursement Drug List, with innovative drug revenue reaching 6.865 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 37.1%, accounting for 67.9% of total revenue [1] - The company aims to increase the contribution of innovative drugs to 80% of total revenue by 2025 [1] - The company has a strong presence in oncology, CNS, anti-infectives, and metabolic diseases, with a robust pipeline of high-value innovative products [1][2] - The company is accelerating its global strategy through international BD collaborations, with significant milestones and licensing deals, such as the $1.85 billion deal with GSK for HS-20093 [2][14] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 11.846 billion yuan, 12.658 billion yuan, and 14.728 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2][4] - Net profits are forecasted to be 3.422 billion yuan, 3.614 billion yuan, and 4.073 billion yuan for the same periods, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28x, 26x, and 23x [2][4] - The company's fair equity value is estimated at 120.5 billion yuan, equivalent to 130.2 billion HKD, based on a DCF valuation with a perpetual growth rate of 2% and WACC of 8.29% [4] Key Therapeutic Areas Oncology - The company has a strong portfolio in oncology, with key products including Ameile (Aumolertinib) and Haosen Xinfu (Flumatinib), generating 6.169 billion yuan in revenue in 2023, accounting for 61.0% of total revenue [1][2] - Aumolertinib, a third-generation EGFR-TKI, is a leading product in the lung cancer market, with ongoing Phase III trials for adjuvant therapy and other indications [19][20] - The company is advancing its ADC pipeline, including HS-20093 (B7-H3 ADC) and HS-20089 (B7-H4 ADC), with significant global licensing deals with GSK [14][26][27] Central Nervous System (CNS) - The company has a long-standing advantage in CNS, with products like Inebilizumab (Xinyue), the only CD19 monoclonal antibody approved for NMOSD treatment [31][32] - HS-10380, targeting schizophrenia, is in Phase Ib/II clinical trials, with potential to address unmet needs in the mental health market [33][34] Anti-Infectives - The company has two self-developed innovative drugs in the anti-infective field: Hengmu (Ainuovirine) and Mailingda (Morinidazole) [35][36] - Ibrexafungerp, a fourth-generation antifungal drug, is under review for domestic approval, with potential to address recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis (RVVC) [39][40] Metabolic and Other Diseases - The company has launched Fulaimei (Pegylated Loxenatide) and Shengluolai (Peginesatide), with HS-20094, a GLP-1/GIP dual agonist, in Phase II clinical trials for diabetes and obesity [40][41] - HS-10374, a TYK2 inhibitor, is in Phase II trials, positioning the company as a global leader in this therapeutic area [43][44] - HS-10390, an ETA/AT1 dual receptor antagonist, is in Phase I trials for FSGS and IgA nephropathy, with potential to address unmet needs in renal diseases [45][46]

证券研究报告 交通运输 行业点评 2024年05月29日 行业竞争缓和，龙头估值有望修复 看好 ——2024 年 4 月快递经营数据点评 （首次） 投资要点： 证券分析师 ➢ 国家邮政局公布2024年4月快递经营数据：4月全国快递实现业务量约137.0亿件，同比+22.7%， 孙延 业务收入完成1094.4亿元，同比增长15.7%，4月快递单价格约为8.0元/件，同比下滑5.7%。4月 S1350524050003 快递集中度CR8约为85.0%，同比增长0.3pct。 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 联系人 ➢ 行业需求持续复苏，整体竞争可控：1）4月行业需求增速22.7%，环比3月增速提升2.6pct，2024年 行业需求保持在 20%+，持续超出市场及各家企业对于行业增速预期。因直播电商高增长、行业单件包 裹价值量下行、退货增加等因素共同催化，市场或对行业需求预期上调。从件量口径上，今年邮政小包 板块表现： 的件量计入，行业件量规模被放大；从增速上，剔除邮政小包测算 4 月行业件量增速约 23.4%，与披露 39% 物流 沪深300 29% 需求增速差异不大。2）4 月行业价格经重溯 ...

证券研究报告 海外科技 行业定期报告 2024年05月28日 微软领衔 AIPC 新品推出 加密现货 ETF 再添新军 ——海外科技周报（24/05/20-24/05/24） 投资要点： 证券分析师 ➢ 海外AI：1）本周微软举行Build 2024 开发者大会，大会前夕发布“Copilot+PC”。“Copilot+PC” 郑嘉伟 的推出对于硬件和应用层面两方面具有重要意义，1）硬件层面，“Copilot+PC”的推出可能是Arm PC S1350523120001 的重要转折，此前微软一直推动Windows on Arm，但是进展相对较慢，此次微软称其新设备在87%的 情况下运行的都是Arm原生应用程序，“Copilot+PC”率先搭载高通Arm架构处理器，在AI性能和续 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 航能力上大大提升。2）应用层面融合OpenAI上周推出的GPT-4o，Copilot可以真正“看懂你的屏幕”， 联系人 Copilot可以根据用户屏幕上看到的内容来回答问题，真正做到理解用户。微软Build 2024开发者大会， 推出了一系列新的AI功能，发布了三种小语言模型以及 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][7]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading domestic cosmetics brand, entering a phase of high-quality growth. It has maintained a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 30% in revenue and net profit from 2017 to 2023. In Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.182 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.56%, and a net profit of 303 million yuan, up 45.58% year-on-year [4][18]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has over 20 years of experience in the industry and has evolved from a mass-market brand to a leading domestic cosmetics brand. Its brand matrix includes Proya, Caitang, Yefuti, Yousilai, CORRECTORS, and Off&Relax, covering various segments such as skincare, makeup, and hair care [4][16]. Product Strategy - The company has shifted its product strategy from affordable kits to a focus on big-ticket items, achieving significant results. The introduction of popular products like the "Bubble Mask" and subsequent big product strategies have helped establish a strong brand presence and attract repeat purchases [4][23]. Channel Strategy - The company has effectively adapted to channel changes, with online sales growing from 44% in 2018 to 93% in 2023. It has successfully leveraged platforms like Douyin (TikTok) for marketing, transitioning from influencer-driven sales to self-broadcasting, which has increased brand loyalty and reduced costs [5][31]. R&D Strength - The company emphasizes R&D, maintaining a leading position in various fields such as basic research and formula development. It has established strategic partnerships with institutions like the Chinese Academy of Sciences to enhance its technological capabilities [5][4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 11.43 billion, 13.93 billion, and 16.65 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.4%, 21.9%, and 19.5%, respectively. Net profits are projected to be 1.51 billion, 1.85 billion, and 2.23 billion yuan, with growth rates of 26.3%, 22.4%, and 20.7% [4][7].

证券研究报告 金属与材料|有色金属 行业定期报告 2024年5月26日 电解钴止跌拉涨，软磁和铜合金材料持续景气 看好 （维持） ——有色金属 能源金属＆新材料周报（24/5/20-24/5/26） 投资要点： 证券分析师 田源 ➢ 能源金属方面，价格整体呈震荡运行趋势，电解钴止跌拉涨。锂：碳酸锂价格下跌0.47%至106500元/吨， S1350524030001 氢氧化锂价格下跌 1.83%至96450元/吨，近期市场偏弱震荡运行。需求端，多数正极厂于前期价格较低 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 时期已经进行散单采备库，当下补库行情或已接近尾声，综合看碳酸锂采买观望情绪抬升，现货市场成交较 田庆争 S1350524050001 为清淡，后续关注下游企业对锂盐企业售价接受度的变动需求。建议关注：天齐锂业、赣锋锂业、中矿资 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 源、永兴材料。 项祈瑞 S1350524040002 ➢ 海外 MB 钴价下跌1.36%至12.68 美元/磅，国内电钴价格上涨8.68%至23.80万元/吨，国内市场价格 xiangqirui@huayua ...

证券研究报告 金属与材料|有色金属 行业定期报告 2024年05月26日 美联储降息预期延后，金铜回调不改向上趋势 看好 ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（24/5/20-24/5/26） （维持） 投资要点： 证券分析师 ➢ 受美联储会议纪要偏鹰影响，美联储降息预期延后至11或12月，本周大宗商品普遍回调，铜金中长期 田源 逻辑仍未改变。仍建议继续关注贵金属、低冶炼自给率的铜和高氧化铝自给率的电解铝板块，小金属建议 S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 关注：钨、锰、锑和铟，同时可关注滞涨品种如镍和镁等。 田庆争 S1350524050001 ➢ 贵金属板块：美联储降息预期延后，黄金价格调整。伦敦现货黄金下跌2.49%、上期所黄金下跌1.40%， tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 伦敦现货白银上涨3.07%、上期所白银上涨4.63%，钯金下跌2.12%，铂金下跌3.76%。美联储5月会 S1350524040002 议纪要偏鹰，指出通胀回落进程缓慢，不排除进一步加息可能。美国5月Markit制造业PMI超预期叠加 xiangqirui ...

证券研究报告 生物医药 首次覆盖报告 2024年05月26日 天坛生物 (600161.SH ) 买入 ——血制品龙头，十四五期间采浆站数量大幅增长 （首次覆盖） 投资要点： 证券分析师 ➢ 公司是国内血制品龙头，实控人为国药集团，未来成长潜力大。天坛生物历史悠久， 李强 S1350524040001 是国内最早开始从事血液制品工业化生产的企业之一，近几年经过 2010 年、2017 liqiang01@huayuanstock.com 年两次重大资产重组，公司目前成为中国生物旗下血制品平台，实控人为国药集团， 为国务院国资委直接管理的以生命健康为主业的中央企业，实力强劲。2023年，公 研究支持 司实现收入51.8亿元，实现采浆量2415吨，拥有采浆站102个，从收入、采浆量 和采浆站来看，公司是国内血制品公司龙头，目标努力成为中国领先、国际一流的血 液制品企业。 联系人 李强 ➢ 公司十四五期间获得多个采浆站，实控人国药集团实力较强。公司单采血浆站数量及 S1350524040001 liqiang01@huayuanstock.com 采浆规模持续保持国内领先地位，2020 年底，公司拥有采浆站数量 5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [7][12]. Core Insights - The company has shown a consistent upward trend in performance for 2023, with significant growth in Q1 2024. Domestic revenue increased by 7.44% year-on-year, while international revenue decreased by 5.32% [3]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 improved to 28.72%, a rise of 1.62 percentage points year-on-year, although it saw a decline in Q1 2024 to 25.63% [3]. - The company reported a significant increase in cash flow, with net cash flow from operating activities reaching 197 million yuan in 2023, an increase of 229 million yuan year-on-year [3]. - The backlog of orders at the end of 2023 was 3.623 billion yuan, a 43.15% increase year-on-year, indicating strong future revenue potential [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 1.381 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 1.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 84.82 million yuan, up 15.01% [12]. - For Q1 2024, revenue was 269 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.51%, with net profit soaring to 12.89 million yuan, a growth of 483% [12]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 28.72%, with domestic and international margins at 24.89% and 34.04%, respectively [3]. - The company’s expense ratio for 2023 was 21.31%, slightly up from the previous year, but it decreased to 20.90% in Q1 2024 [3]. Order Backlog and Future Outlook - The company’s order backlog at the end of 2023 was 3.623 billion yuan, which is approximately 2.6 times its total revenue for the year [3]. - The report anticipates net profits of 111 million yuan, 143 million yuan, and 179 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - China National Pharmaceutical Group (Sinopharm Group) aims to achieve over 1 trillion in revenue, total assets, or market capitalization by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][10] - Sinopharm Group reported revenue and net profit of 632.8 billion and 20.6 billion respectively in 2022, with a net profit margin of 3.3% [2][10] - The average ROE of listed companies under Sinopharm Group is approximately 12%, with a PB ratio ranging from 1X to 5X [11] Summary by Sections Sinopharm Group - Sinopharm Group is a leading comprehensive pharmaceutical enterprise in China, covering a wide range of sectors including R&D, manufacturing, logistics, retail, and healthcare [7][10] - The group is managed directly by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and has over 1,700 member companies [10][11] Sinopharm Holdings - Sinopharm Holdings is the main carrier of the pharmaceutical trade and distribution segment, boasting the largest national distribution network for drugs and medical devices in China [14][16] - In 2023, the company achieved revenue and net profit of 596.6 billion and 9.1 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 8.0% and 6.2% [14][16] - The distribution business is the primary source of revenue and profit, with drug distribution revenue reaching 423.8 billion in 2023 [16] Sinopharm Yaozi - Sinopharm Yaozi integrates distribution, retail, and industrial investment, showing potential for profit margin improvement [3][21] - The company reported revenue and net profit of 75.5 billion and 1.6 billion respectively in 2023, with year-on-year growth of 2.8% and 7.6% [3][21] Sinopharm Shares - Sinopharm Shares is a leader in the distribution of narcotic and psychotropic drugs, with a strong market presence [28][30] - The company achieved revenue and net profit of 49.7 billion and 2.1 billion respectively in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2% and 9.3% [28][30] Sinopharm Modern - Sinopharm Modern focuses on chemical pharmaceuticals and aims to enhance product competitiveness through capital increase [35] - The company reported revenue and net profit of 12.07 billion and 0.69 billion respectively in 2023, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.9% and an increase of 10.2% [35] Tai Chi Group - Tai Chi Group is part of Sinopharm's modern traditional Chinese medicine segment, showing initial results in quality improvement [4][36] - The company achieved revenue and net profit of 15.62 billion and 0.82 billion respectively in 2023, with year-on-year growth of 10.6% and 132.0% [4][36] Tiantan Biological - Tiantan Biological is a leading player in blood products, demonstrating stable performance [5][36] - The company reported revenue and net profit of 5.18 billion and 1.11 billion respectively in 2023, with year-on-year growth of 21.6% and 26.0% [5][36] China Traditional Chinese Medicine - China Traditional Chinese Medicine is a leader in Chinese medicine granules, with a potential for profit margin stabilization [5][36] - The company achieved revenue and net profit of 18.1 billion and 1.3 billion respectively in 2023, with year-on-year growth of 26.7% and 68.2% [5][36]