证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 31 日 ——债基 2025 年 Q3 季报分析 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 马赫 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com 从 2025Q3 季报看利率债基变化 利率债基整体规模缩减，债券配置比例下降。截至 25Q3，利率债基资产总值为 3.1 万亿元，较 25Q2 下降 0.44 万亿元，其中主动型利率债基和被动型利率债基分别为 2.2 万亿元和 0.9 万亿元，较 25Q2 分别-0.23 万亿/-0.22 万亿元。从大类资产配置 来看，截至 25Q3，利率债基主要配置于债券（规模约为 3.0 万亿元，占比 96.39%）， 其次是现金（规模约为 0.03 万亿元，占比 0.92%），规模占比较上一季度分别 -0.90pct/+0.02pct，其中主动型利率债基的债券和现金配置规模分别为 2.1 万亿元和 0.02 万亿元，比例分别为 96.08%/1.11%，较上一季度分别 ...

证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 30 日 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邹佩轩 SAC：S1350524070004 zoupeixuan01@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | | 日 | | | | 29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | 8.26 | | | | | | | 最 低 | / | | | | 内 | | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | 129,666.25 | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | 129,666.25 | ...

New Consumption - The company Ruyuchen (003010.SZ) reported a 73% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2025, driven by strong performance in its proprietary brands [2][10] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.14 billion yuan, an 85% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 105 million yuan, up 82% [2][10] - The proprietary brand business accounted for 55.1% of total revenue, with brands like Zhanjia and Feicui maintaining high growth rates [11][12] Metal New Materials - Xiamen Tungsten (600549.SH) exceeded expectations in Q3 2025, with revenue of 12.82 billion yuan, a 39.3% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 810 million yuan, up 109.9% [15][16] - The tungsten and molybdenum segment saw significant profit growth due to rising tungsten prices, with Q3 profits reaching 1.06 billion yuan, a 98.3% increase year-on-year [16][18] - The company is positioned to benefit from the rising demand for cobalt lithium in the energy new materials sector, with a 45% year-on-year increase in sales volume [17][18] Transportation - Milkewei (603713.SH) reported a 2.1% increase in revenue to 3.64 billion yuan in Q3 2025, although net profit decreased by 3.5% to 173 million yuan [20][21] - The company's integrated logistics strategy is showing results, with total assets growing by 41.42% year-on-year, indicating rapid expansion in distribution business [21][23] - The gross margin improved to 11.2%, driven by optimization in distribution product categories [21][22] Machinery/Building Materials - Weixing New Materials (002372.SZ) experienced a revenue decline of 10.76% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with net profit down 13.52% [25][26] - The company reported a slight improvement in performance due to investment gains, with a gross margin of 43.04% in Q3 [26][27] - The company is facing challenges in operational performance despite a healthy cash flow situation [27][28] Overseas/Education Research - Tiangong International (00826.HK) is transitioning from a cutting tool manufacturer to a leader in high-end materials, focusing on powder metallurgy and titanium alloy sectors [34][35] - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand in high-value sectors such as aerospace and consumer electronics [36][38] - The powder metallurgy technology is seen as a key platform for entering strategic new materials and high-end manufacturing markets, potentially enhancing both performance and valuation [37][38] North Exchange - Jianbang Technology (920242.BJ) reported a 9% year-on-year revenue increase to 586 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, despite facing credit loss provisions [39][40] - The company is expanding its product offerings in the automotive electronics sector and has initiated production at its Thailand factory [41][42] - Future growth is anticipated from the development of optoelectronic hybrid interconnection products and a focus on non-automotive components [42]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The new factory ramp-up meets expectations, contributing to improved quarterly gross profit, with a year-to-date revenue growth of 6.67% [5][7] - The company achieved a revenue of 18.68 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a gross margin of 21.96%, showing a slight increase from the first half of the year [7] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the sports footwear OEM sector in China, benefiting from short-term demand recovery and long-term capacity expansion [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 20,114 million yuan in 2023, 24,006 million yuan in 2024, 26,929 million yuan in 2025, 30,414 million yuan in 2026, and 34,739 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of -2.21%, 19.35%, 12.18%, 12.94%, and 14.22% respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 3,200 million yuan in 2023, 3,840 million yuan in 2024, 3,515 million yuan in 2025, 4,187 million yuan in 2026, and 4,977 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of -0.86%, 20.00%, -8.46%, 19.12%, and 18.85% respectively [6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.74 yuan in 2023, 3.29 yuan in 2024, 3.01 yuan in 2025, 3.59 yuan in 2026, and 4.26 yuan in 2027 [6] Market Performance - The company’s sales volume of sports shoes reached 168 million pairs, with a year-on-year increase of 3.04%, maintaining steady growth despite a high base in 2024 [7] - The average selling price (ASP) of products increased by 0.99% compared to the first half of the year, contributing to revenue stability [7] - The company is expected to benefit from structural changes in customer demand and new brand collaborations, which will drive ASP upward [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report indicates that the company's performance shows signs of marginal improvement, with a positive revenue growth in the third quarter of 2025, despite a year-on-year decline in the first three quarters [7] - The company is recognized as a leader in the waterproof materials industry in China, and it is believed to be entering a sustainable high-quality development phase after strategic adjustments [7] Financial Summary - Total market capitalization is 30,575.36 million yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 24,511.76 million yuan [3] - The company reported a total revenue of 32,823 million yuan for 2023, with a projected decline to 28,056 million yuan in 2024, followed by a slight recovery in subsequent years [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 2,273 million yuan in 2023, dropping significantly to 108 million yuan in 2024, but rebounding to 1,131 million yuan in 2025 [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.95 yuan in 2023, decreasing to 0.05 yuan in 2024, and then recovering to 0.47 yuan in 2025 [6] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 8.01% in 2023, dropping to 0.43% in 2024, and gradually increasing to 7.56% by 2027 [6] Performance Analysis - In the third quarter of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7,032 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.51%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2,450 million yuan, down 26.58% year-on-year [7] - The gross profit margin for the third quarter was reported at 24.80%, showing a decline compared to the previous year [7] - The company has improved its cash flow management, with net cash flow from operating activities increasing by 184.56% year-on-year [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][9]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the global tool steel sector, with a solid foundation for sustainable profitability. It has made breakthroughs in powder metallurgy and titanium alloy technologies, positioning itself in high-growth sectors such as integrated die-casting for electric vehicles, consumer electronics, and aerospace, establishing a clear second growth curve [6][9]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 49.41 billion, 56.99 billion, and 65.45 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.2%, 15.3%, and 14.8%. Corresponding net profits are projected at 4.31 billion, 6.20 billion, and 8.50 billion RMB, with growth rates of 20.0%, 43.9%, and 37.2% [6][9]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of October 28, 2025, the closing price is 3.05 HKD, with a market capitalization of 8,311.25 million HKD. The stock has seen a one-year high of 3.28 HKD and a low of 1.65 HKD [3]. Business Overview - The company has been in the special steel industry for over 40 years, evolving from a cutting tool manufacturer to a leader in high-end materials, covering high-speed steel, tool steel, cutting tools, and titanium alloys [8][18]. - The company has a concentrated and stable shareholding structure, with the Zhu family as the actual controllers, ensuring strategic execution continuity [8][17]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 5,163.31 million RMB in 2023, with a projected decline in 2024 followed by a recovery in subsequent years. The gross profit margin and net profit margin have remained stable, supported by high R&D investment [7][31]. - The first half of 2025 saw a revenue decline of 7.1% year-on-year, attributed to reduced exports and lower demand from consumer electronics. However, net profit increased by 10.4% due to favorable currency exchange rates and improved gross margins in tool steel [22][23]. Growth Drivers - The company’s core business in tool steel is expected to enter an upward cycle, driven by domestic demand recovery and import substitution in high-end materials [8][22]. - The titanium alloy business is positioned to benefit from expanding demand in consumer electronics and aerospace, with significant growth potential as the market evolves [8][37]. Technological Advancements - The company has successfully established a powder metallurgy production line, filling a domestic gap in the large-scale production of tool steel, and is expected to lead in domestic substitution efforts [15][18]. - Ongoing R&D efforts have resulted in numerous innovations, including high-nitrogen alloy materials and advanced titanium products, enhancing the company's competitive edge in high-end manufacturing [31][34].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company reported a 73% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025, driven by strong performance in its proprietary brands [5][7] - The company achieved a revenue of 2.14 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing an 85% year-on-year increase [7] - The proprietary brand business contributed significantly to revenue, accounting for 55.1% of total revenue in Q3 2025 [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 1,366 million yuan - 2024: 1,766 million yuan (12.25% growth) - 2025E: 3,159 million yuan (78.89% growth) - 2026E: 4,146 million yuan (31.27% growth) - 2027E: 5,005 million yuan (20.71% growth) [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 54 million yuan in 2023 to 350 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 60.83%, 94.58%, 70.93%, 42.90%, and 35.61% respectively [6] - The company's gross margin improved by 12.0 percentage points to 58.5% in the first three quarters of 2025 [7] Brand Performance - The proprietary brand "Zhanjia" generated 227 million yuan in revenue in Q3 2025, marking a 118.9% year-on-year increase [7] - The brand "Feicui" achieved revenue of 203 million yuan in Q3 2025, with a sequential growth of over 98.8% [7] - The newly launched brand "Niuyibei" contributed 12.13 million yuan in revenue by September 2025, with significant growth in GMV [7] Brand Management - The brand management business generated 539 million yuan in revenue in the first three quarters of 2025, a 71.1% year-on-year increase [7] - The company focuses on the health and personal care sectors, enhancing its brand management ecosystem and operational capabilities [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The effectiveness of the integrated logistics strategy is becoming evident, with anticipation for a recovery in chemical demand [5][6] - The company's Q3 revenue showed a slight increase of 2.1% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.5% [6] - The total assets increased by 41.42% year-on-year, indicating rapid expansion in distribution business [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 9,753 million RMB - 2024: 12,118 million RMB (24.26% growth) - 2025E: 13,311 million RMB (9.84% growth) - 2026E: 15,303 million RMB (14.96% growth) - 2027E: 17,192 million RMB (12.35% growth) [5][7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 431 million RMB in 2023 to 862 million RMB in 2027, with a growth rate of 31.04% in 2024 [5][7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 2.73 RMB in 2023 to 5.45 RMB in 2027 [5][7] Operational Efficiency - The company has improved its cash flow significantly, with a net cash flow from operating activities reaching 940 million RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, compared to -160 million RMB in the same period last year [6] - The net operating cycle is approximately 50 days, a reduction of 3 days year-on-year, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [6] Strategic Developments - The logistics network is continuously optimized, with significant progress in building hazardous chemical support and expanding into lower-tier markets [6] - The company has successfully developed clients in three major sectors: new energy, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals, indicating a diversified client base [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's performance has been impacted by a decline in operating income and net profit, but the decrease in performance has narrowed due to investment gains [4][6] - The company reported a revenue of 3.367 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.76%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 540 million yuan, down 13.52% year-on-year [6] - The report indicates that the company's gross margin improved sequentially but still faced year-on-year pressure, with a gross margin of 43.04% in Q3 2025, down 0.07% year-on-year but up 2.51% quarter-on-quarter [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue forecast for 2025 is 5.584 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 10.90% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected at 851 million yuan, a decrease of 10.71% year-on-year [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.53 yuan [5] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 16.34% in 2025 [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 19.56 [5] Market Performance - The company’s total market capitalization is 16.637 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 15.370 billion yuan [2] - The company’s total share capital is 1,592.04 million shares [2] - The asset-liability ratio stands at 23.42% [2]

证券研究报告 有色金属 | 小金属 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 30 日 厦门钨业(600549.SH) 投资评级： 买入（维持） ——Q3 业绩超预期，钨钼板块表现亮眼 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 陈轩 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | | 2025 | 年 | 10 | 月 29 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | 37.51 | | | 一 年 内 / | 最 | 高 | 最 | 低 ...