证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 22 日 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 2025 年北交所打新火爆申购资金均值近 5000 亿，单周受理 10 家企业 IPO 证券分析师 ——北交所周观察第三十一期（20250622） 投资要点： 风险提示：宏观经济环境变动风险、市场竞争风险、资料统计误差风险 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 申购资金再超 5000 亿元，申购户数创造历史新高达到 51.7 万户。2025 年 6 月 20 日， 广信科技发行完毕。其中网上发行获配户数为 82,500 户，网上获配股数为 1900 万股， 网上获配金额为 1.9 亿元，网上获配比例为 0.03%，网上有效申购倍数为 2,908.15 倍（启 用超额配售选择权后）；发行战略配售股份实际获配 400 万股，战略配售募集资金金额 合计 4000 万元，主要包含 10 家机构，包括核心员工 ...

行业深度报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 22 日 证券研究报告 公用事业 证券分析师 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 绿电底层需求持续扩容 看好下游运营和监测设备 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——新型电力系统系列报告之一：绿电绿证碳市场政策体系全景梳理 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 在新型电力系统机制框架的理论体系中，电力价值呈现出多元复合的特性，其核心 由能量价值、时间价值与环境价值三大要素构成，当前碳市场建设的滞后，致使电 力的环境价值未能有效纳入定价范围，成为新能源发展承压的症结所在。为有效解 决电力环境价值定价问题，我国系统性构建了以碳市场、绿电交易市场和绿证交易 市场为核心的绿色电力交易市场体系，其中碳市场交易碳配额，绿电市场交易绿电 （含绿证价值），绿证市场交易绿证，同时还催生出碳排放权的 ...

市场表现： | 基本数据 | | 2025 | 年 | 06 | | 日 | | | 19 | | 月 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | 23.57 | | | | | | | | | | 一 年 高 | 内 | | | | 55.97/7.96 | | 最 | | | 最 | | / | 低 | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | 2,341.94 | | | | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | 1,367.63 | | | | | | | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | 99.36 | | | | | | | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | | 43.51 | | | | | | | | | | 每股净资产（元/股） | | | | | | | | 6.86 | | | | | | | ...

Economic Overview - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [8][10] - The national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for the first five months was 19.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, slightly slowing down by 0.3 percentage points from January to April [8][10] - Exports showed a steady increase, with a total import and export value of 17.94 trillion yuan in the first five months, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [9][10] Consumer Sector Insights - The retail sales of household appliances grew significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 53.0%, driven by national subsidies and promotional events like "618" [8][10] - The retail sales of communication equipment also saw a robust growth of 33.0% year-on-year [8][10] - Service retail sales increased by 5.2% in the first five months, indicating a steady recovery in consumer demand for services [8][10] Uranium Industry Analysis - Sprott's Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) announced a fundraising of approximately 200 million USD to purchase physical uranium, marking its first procurement since November 2024 [12][13] - The expected procurement could support uranium prices, with SPUT potentially purchasing around 1,200 tons of U3O8, which would account for about 6.5% of the total spot market volume in 2024 [13][14] - The global nuclear energy sector is experiencing a surge in activity following recent U.S. policies aimed at accelerating advanced reactor deployment, creating a favorable environment for uranium and nuclear-related investments [14] Company Profile: Zhongtian Technology - Zhongtian Technology is a leading supplier of communication and power transmission equipment in China, with a diversified business structure including marine equipment, optical communication, and power transmission [20][21] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing offshore wind energy market, with significant opportunities arising from both domestic and international projects [21][22] - Profit forecasts for Zhongtian Technology indicate a net profit of 34.2 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 20.5% from 2025 to 2027 [22]

证券研究报告 海外 行业点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 19 日 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 于炳麟 SAC：S1350524060002 yubinglin@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 证券分析师 SPUT 或将重启采购，铀板块三季度有望持续催化 投资评级： 无 ——铀行业点评 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 事件：Sprott 旗下实物铀信托（SPUT）宣布增发融资，总额达 2 亿美元。2025 年 6 月 16 日，Sprott 公司宣布，其旗下的实物铀信托基金（SPUT）将以每份 17.25 美 元的价格，向包销商 Canaccord Genuity 发行 1160 万份基金单位，总募资额约 2 亿美元。募集资金将 100%用于购买实物铀（包括铀精矿和六氟化铀）及相关费用， 以支持信托的投资目标。该交易预计将于 2025 年 6 月 20 日左右完成，仍需获得多 伦多证券交易所等监管批准。 联系人 SPUT 有望自去年 11 月以来首次恢复采购实物铀，三季度 ...

证券研究报告 通信 | 通信设备 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 19 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 年 | 06 | 月 | 日 | | 18 | 2025 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | | 13.85 | | | 一 年 内 高 最 低 | | | | | 最 | | | | / | | （元） | | | 17.78/12.10 | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | 47,269.35 | | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | 47,269.35 | | | | | | | ...

证券研究报告 商贸零售 行业点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 19 日 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 周宸宇 zhouchenyu@huayuanstock.com 王悦 wangyue03@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 2025 年 5 月社零数据点评 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——5 月社零整体同增 6.4%，家具、家电等品类增速较快 投资要点： 分品类看： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 1.5 月社零整体同增 6.4%，家具、家电等品类增速 较快 1.1.社零总体数据 5 月社会消费品零售总额为 41326 亿元，同比增长 6.4%。除汽车外社会消费品零售总额 为 37316 亿元，同比增长 7.0%。分区域来看，5 月城镇/乡村消费品零售总额分别实现 36057/5269 亿元，分别同比+6.5%/+5.4%。 图表 1：中国 2022 年至今月度社零总额（亿元）及当月同比情况 资料来源：wind，华源证券研究所 5 月社零整体同增 6.4%。5 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tangshan Port, indicating a stable and high dividend yield from its bulk cargo port services [5][7]. Core Views - Tangshan Port focuses on bulk cargo handling, primarily iron ore, coal, and steel, serving the industrial hinterland of Tangshan. The company has strategically divested from secondary businesses to enhance profitability and maintain a high dividend payout [6][9]. - The port benefits from a strong industrial base in Tangshan, particularly in the steel sector, which supports cargo throughput. The integration of Hebei's ports has improved operational efficiency and reduced competition, allowing Tangshan Port to capture additional coal volumes from the transitioning Qinhuangdao Port [6][82]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Tangshan Port - Tangshan Port, established in 1989, has become the second-largest port in terms of cargo throughput globally, focusing on bulk cargo services [14][15]. - The port's geographical advantages and proximity to major industrial areas enhance its operational capabilities [19][20]. 2. Industrial Support for Cargo Growth - The economic growth in Tangshan, with a GDP of 1,000.39 billion yuan in 2024, supports stable demand for steel and coal, which are critical for the port's operations [52][55]. - The steel industry in Tangshan is robust, with significant production capacity, directly benefiting the port's throughput [60][67]. 3. Benefits from Port Integration - The integration of Hebei's ports has led to improved operational efficiency and a more favorable competitive environment for Tangshan Port [82][85]. - The restructuring allows Tangshan Port to take advantage of the shifting cargo volumes from Qinhuangdao Port, which is transitioning to a tourism-focused operation [91]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts Tangshan Port's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 20.15 billion, 20.74 billion, and 21.13 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 1.84%, 2.92%, and 1.89% [5][7]. - The current price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 11.97, 11.63, and 11.41 for the same period, reflecting a stable valuation [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need for a new development model in the real estate sector to promote stable, healthy, and high-quality growth. It highlights the importance of long-term planning and systematic policy support across various areas such as planning, land, finance, and fiscal measures [51][52] - The report notes that the central government has consistently stressed the importance of stabilizing the real estate market since September 2024, with a focus on high-quality housing development [4][55] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.2%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.6%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.2%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) declined by 1.8% during the week [4][7] - In terms of individual stocks, ST Zhongdi increased by 8.7%, while Hai Tai Development decreased by 18.8% [7] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of June 7-13, 2025, 42 key cities recorded a total new housing transaction of 212 million square meters, a 14.4% increase from the previous week [14] - For June up to the week of June 13, total new housing transactions in these cities reached 362 million square meters, a 12.8% increase month-on-month but a 0.6% decrease year-on-year [18] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week of June 7-13, 2025, 21 key cities recorded a total second-hand housing transaction of 216 million square meters, a 31.4% increase from the previous week [30] - For June up to the week of June 13, total second-hand housing transactions reached 371 million square meters, a 28.1% increase month-on-month and a 7.3% increase year-on-year [34] Industry News - The State Council emphasized the construction of a new real estate development model, which is crucial for the stable and healthy development of the market. It called for a systematic approach to stabilize expectations and activate demand [51][52] - Various cities have implemented measures such as the cancellation of purchase restrictions in Guangzhou and the promotion of housing "trade-in" policies in Jiangsu [51][52] Company Announcements - In May 2025, several companies reported their sales figures: Longfor Group at 6.47 billion yuan (down 26% year-on-year), China Jinmao at 12.44 billion yuan (up 72% year-on-year), and China Resources Land at 18.35 billion yuan (down 11% year-on-year) [55]

Fixed Income - Economic recovery shows divergence, with the bond market expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Current economic operation is in a neutral zone, with marginal changes primarily in consumption compared to last year. The bond market is unlikely to see a trend-driven bull or bear market in the short term. [2][9] - The yield on 10-year government bonds is projected to remain in the range of 1.6%-1.8% by the end of the year, with a focus on credit bonds yielding over 2% as a balanced investment strategy. [9] Electronics - Broadcom's FY25Q2 performance was strong, with revenue reaching $15.005 billion, a 20% year-on-year increase, driven mainly by AI semiconductor business, which saw a 46% increase in revenue. [10][11] - The demand for AI networks is expected to grow, with significant investments from large cloud service providers. The introduction of the Tomahawk6 switch chip, which offers double the switching capacity of existing products, is a key development. [11][12] Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - The municipal environmental sector is entering a phase of stable cash flow and increased dividend rates, with waste-to-energy and water companies showing strong profitability due to regulated return models. [14][15] - The decline in Hong Kong interest rates is expected to accelerate capital inflow into the stock market, enhancing the valuation of low-correlation, long-duration assets represented by Hong Kong dividend stocks. [16][17] Transportation - The express delivery sector is experiencing robust growth, with a forecasted 16% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume for May. The collaboration with e-commerce is expected to further boost consumption. [20][21] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are likely to lead to increased oil prices and shipping rates, with a focus on VLCC shipping companies benefiting from this situation. [22][31] Real Estate and Construction - The government has signaled stronger support for the real estate market, emphasizing the construction of quality housing and urban renewal projects, which is expected to drive demand in the construction sector. [32][33] - Key players in urban renewal and affordable housing construction, such as China State Construction, are recommended for investment due to their resource synergy and comprehensive capabilities. [33][35]