Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The company reported strong same-store sales performance in Q4 2025, with a revenue of $2.82 billion, representing a 9% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of $140 million, up 24% year-on-year [6] - The company aims to exceed 30,000 stores by 2030, having reached 18,101 stores by the end of 2025, with a net addition of 1,706 stores during the year [6] - The company plans to return $1.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in 2026, with an average annual return of approximately $900 million to over $1 billion in 2027 and 2028 [6] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of $1.071 billion, $1.156 billion, and $1.242 billion for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 15%, 8%, and 8% [6] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company forecasts revenue of $11.303 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3% [5] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 is $3.02, with a return on equity (ROE) of 21.6% [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 18.53 for 2026, indicating a stable valuation [5]

Group 1 - The unmanned mining truck industry is expected to develop rapidly, with demand likely to continue growing. By 2025, the number of unmanned mining trucks in China's open-pit coal mines is projected to increase to 5,750 units, up from approximately 2,500 units in 2024. The average daily transportation volume of unmanned trucks is 15%-20% higher than that of human-driven trucks, leading to an overall capacity increase of 10%-15% in mining areas [7][13][19] - Berai Technology has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to become a leading provider of electric and automated mining solutions globally. The company focuses on a "unmanned + electrification" strategy to promote the green and intelligent transformation of the mining industry [7][8][9] - The unmanned mining truck market is characterized by a clear industry chain structure, with upstream components including sensors, chips, and automatic driving algorithms, while the downstream includes various mining sectors such as coal and metal mining [10][19] Group 2 - The North Exchange's technology growth stocks have shown a median price change of -1.83% as of February 6, 2026. Among 153 core stocks, 32 companies (21%) experienced price increases, with notable gainers including *ST Yun Chuang (+40.85%) and Optech (+14.44%) [35][37] - The median TTM price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the new energy industry has increased by 6.36% to 38.2X, while the electronic equipment sector's median P/E remains unchanged at 61.1X. The mechanical equipment sector's median P/E has decreased from 42.3X to 40.8X [40][44][62] - The North Exchange's mining truck industry chain includes seven companies, such as Tongli Co., which specializes in non-road wide-body dump trucks, and Wan Tong Hydraulic, which produces hydraulic cylinders for mining machinery. These companies are positioned to benefit from the growth in the unmanned mining truck market [21][24][25][31]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery sector shows resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profitability. Long-term competition in the e-commerce express delivery market is expected to improve [12] - The aviation sector is anticipated to benefit from the upcoming Spring Festival travel peak and performance forecast periods, with a sustainable recovery in demand and a tightening supply situation [12] - The shipping market is expected to see a positive outlook due to the OPEC+ production increase cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, enhancing the elasticity of VLCC freight rates [12] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - ZTO Express forecasts a revenue range of 48.5 to 50 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9.5% to 12.9%. The company expects a package volume of 38.52 billion pieces, a 13.3% increase year-on-year [5] - The company plans to issue $1.5 billion in convertible preferred notes, with a net amount of approximately $1.404 billion, to refinance and repurchase shares [6] - The express delivery market is characterized by significant growth opportunities for companies like YTO Express and SF Express, driven by market share increases and operational stability [12] Aviation - Global air passenger traffic is projected to reach 10.2 billion in 2026, a 3.9% year-on-year increase, with strong demand expected to continue [7] - The Spring Festival travel volume is expected to reach 95 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of approximately 5.3% [8] - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) indicates a strong demand for air travel in 2025, with a 5.3% increase in global passenger demand [8] Shipping and Ports - The shipping market is expected to benefit from geopolitical developments and trade agreements, particularly with India ceasing oil purchases from Russia [9] - The BDI index increased by 1.1% to 2011 points, indicating a positive trend in the dry bulk shipping market [11] - China's port cargo throughput increased by 9.63% week-on-week, with container throughput rising by 12.41% [12] Road and Rail - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with rail freight increasing by 2.27% and highway freight vehicle traffic up by 4.75% [12] - The road passenger volume decreased by 2.60% year-on-year, while rail passenger volume increased by 8.52% [12] Supply Chain Logistics - The logistics sector in South China is undergoing transformation, providing performance elasticity and potential for value reassessment [12] - The chemical logistics market is expanding, with significant growth opportunities for leading companies [12] Ports - The port sector is stabilizing, with strong cash flow and a focus on hub growth potential [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The demand for AI computing power is driving the optical fiber industry into an upward cycle, with prices for G.652.D bare optical fibers rising from less than 20 yuan per core kilometer and accelerating in 2026 due to a reversal in supply and demand dynamics [3][8] - The optical fiber industry is cyclical, closely linked to investments in the telecommunications sector, with each iteration of communication technology (3G, 4G, 5G) leading to increased demand for optical fibers [4][8] - The primary new demand is coming from the construction of AI data centers, leading to a global shortage of optical fibers, particularly as North American data center markets have surpassed telecommunications markets in size [4][20] Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Performance - The optical fiber market has seen a moderate price increase over the past six months, with a significant acceleration in 2026 due to supply-side capacity clearing and increased demand from AI data center construction [3][4] Section 2: Market Concentration - The optical fiber market is highly concentrated, with the top four manufacturers (Corning, Yangtze Optical, Zhongtian Technology, and Hengtong Optic-Electric) holding over 50% market share, and the top ten companies exceeding 90% [4][11] Section 3: Supply Chain Constraints - The production of optical fiber preform, a critical material, faces rigid bottlenecks with an expansion cycle of about two years, leading to a mismatch between supply and demand in the optical fiber cable market [5][20] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The outlook for the optical fiber and cable industry is positive, with expectations for improved performance of related companies as optical fiber prices rise. Key recommendations include Zhongtian Technology, with additional attention to Yangtze Optical, Hengtong Optic-Electric, and Longfly Fiber [5][20]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The dairy industry is expected to see investment opportunities in 2026, driven by industrial upgrades that may boost raw milk demand and a potential upward turning point in milk prices, which could help leading dairy companies recover market share [4][8] - Supply-side dynamics indicate that raw milk prices are likely to rise, benefiting upstream farming companies. The price of fresh milk has declined for over four years, reaching 3.04 RMB/kg, a 30.6% drop from the 2021 peak of 4.38 RMB/kg. It is anticipated that the price stabilization will occur in the second half of 2025, with a turning point expected in 2026, significantly improving the performance of upstream farming companies [5] - On the demand side, there are structural opportunities in dairy product consumption, with potential for deep processing and domestic substitution to create new growth curves for dairy companies. The per capita consumption of dairy products in China is projected to be 40.6 kg in 2024, still below the 47 kg target set for 2030. The consumption structure is primarily focused on liquid milk, with low proportions of dairy solids [6] Summary by Sections - **Supply-Side Analysis**: The prolonged downturn in milk prices has been influenced by macroeconomic disturbances and the expansion led by large-scale enterprises during the previous price upturn. The ongoing losses in upstream farming companies are expected to lead to a supply-side contraction, with a price turning point anticipated in 2026 [5] - **Demand-Side Analysis**: The increasing health awareness among consumers is expected to drive the growth of low-temperature milk and cheese products, which will enhance raw milk demand. Regulatory changes are also expected to support the upgrade of the dairy industry by clarifying standards for deep-processed products and improving market access [6] - **Investment Recommendations**: Based on the positive outlook for the raw milk cycle and domestic substitution of deep-processed products, leading dairy companies are expected to benefit from the recovery of market share during the price upturn. Recommended companies include Yili Group and China Shengmu, with a focus on modern farming practices [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-bank financial sector is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The insurance sector is showing signs of improvement, with increased recognition of the industry's fundamentals by insurance companies, as evidenced by China Ping An's continued stake increase in China Life [4] - The brokerage and margin trading businesses maintain a high level of activity, with significant growth in new account openings and trading volumes in January 2026 [5][32] - The asset management and fund distribution businesses are expected to recover, supported by new regulations that have been implemented [5] - Huatai Securities has announced a plan to issue HKD 10 billion in convertible bonds, which is expected to enhance its operational capabilities [6] - The overall performance of brokerage firms is optimistic, with many firms reporting substantial profit growth [6] Data Tracking Insurance Industry Data - As of December 2025, the insurance industry's original premium income reached CNY 61,194 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.43% [10] - The life insurance premium income was CNY 46,491 billion, up 9.05% year-on-year, while property insurance premium income was CNY 14,703 billion, an increase of 2.60% [10] Securities Industry Data - In January 2026, the average daily trading volume of A-shares was CNY 36.5 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 156.58% [13] - The margin trading balance at the end of January 2026 was CNY 2.72 trillion, up 53.06% year-on-year [13] - New public fund issuance reached 1,094.51 billion units in January 2026, with stock and mixed funds seeing significant growth [13] Industry Dynamics - Insurance capital is increasingly active in equity markets, participating in cornerstone investments in Hong Kong stocks [27] - China Insurance Group reported premium income exceeding CNY 730 billion for 2025, indicating strong operational performance [28] - China Life Group's consolidated investment income grew by double digits in 2025, reflecting robust financial health [29] - China Ping An increased its stake in China Life by 10.12%, demonstrating confidence in the sector [30] - Several automotive service providers have withdrawn from the insurance agency business, indicating competitive pressures in the market [31]

Group 1 - The power industry is expected to achieve high-quality development as it enters a year of comprehensive marketization, driven by the "dual carbon" strategy and accelerated reforms in the electricity system [3][7][8] - The electricity market reform is set to fully unfold in the 15th Five-Year Plan, with significant policies introduced in the final year of the 14th Five-Year Plan that will have far-reaching impacts [3][11][12] - The core idea of the electricity reform is to reflect the different values of power sources (energy value, capacity value, adjustment value, and clean value) in market pricing, which has been historically dominated by energy value due to the predominance of coal power [8][10] Group 2 - The reform is expected to accelerate the construction of ultra-high voltage (UHV) and distribution networks, with UHV construction likely to speed up again as green electricity demand rises [3][16][24] - The investment in distribution networks has been low, with a continuous decline in the investment ratio, but this is expected to change as the demand for reliable power supply increases [28][34][41] - The introduction of capacity pricing for UHV and distribution networks is anticipated to stabilize project returns and promote the development of related projects [26][41] Group 3 - The surge in AI investments is projected to significantly increase electricity demand in the U.S., with OpenAI planning to deploy over 250GW of computing power by 2033, which could lead to a substantial electricity shortfall [45][49] - The U.S. electricity demand has been stagnant, but projections indicate that by 2030, peak load could approach 1000GW, driven largely by data centers [49][51] - The anticipated increase in electricity demand from AI investments presents a significant opportunity for companies involved in power generation and distribution [45][49] Group 4 - The profitability of wind turbine manufacturers is expected to improve, with domestic companies accelerating their international expansion as domestic bidding volumes remain high and prices trend upward [3][4] - Companies such as Goldwind Technology, Yunda Co., Mingyang Smart Energy, and Sany Heavy Industry are recommended for investment due to their competitive advantages in cost and market position [3][4]

Group 1 - The 2026 Central Document emphasizes the modernization of agriculture and rural areas, outlining four key tasks and two major support guarantees in the "three rural" sectors [5][7] - The four key tasks include enhancing agricultural production capacity and quality, implementing regular precise assistance, promoting stable income growth for farmers, and advancing the construction of livable and workable beautiful villages [5][7] - The two major support guarantees focus on strengthening institutional innovation and enhancing the Party's comprehensive leadership over "three rural" work [5][7] Group 2 - As of February 6, 2026, the median price change of consumer service stocks on the North Exchange was -2.93%, with 24% of companies experiencing an increase [27][29] - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of consumer service companies rose from 47.7X to 48.1X, while the total market capitalization decreased from 1129.81 billion to 1102.41 billion [29][30] - The top five companies with the highest price changes included Fangda New Materials (+8.25%), Babi Co. (+3.28%), and Longzhu Technology (+2.54%) [27][35] Group 3 - The median TTM P/E ratio for the broad consumer sector increased by 8.25% to 56.8X, with Fangda New Materials, Babi Co., and Longzhu Technology leading in market performance [36][37] - The median TTM P/E ratio for the food and agriculture sector decreased from 53.0X to 49.9X, with Zhu Laoliu and Knight Dairy showing notable price changes [38][40] - The median TTM P/E ratio for the professional technical services sector fell from 30.1X to 28.5X, with companies like Guangzi International and Qingju Technology experiencing declines [41][43] Group 4 - Kangbiter plans to repurchase A-shares with a budget of 30 million to 50 million yuan, with a maximum repurchase price of 25 yuan per share, aimed at employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives [44][46] - Zhu Laoliu reported an expected revenue of approximately 215.79 million yuan for 2025, a decrease of 9.36% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to increase by 7.43% [44][46]

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 08 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2026年02月06日 华源晨会精粹 20260208 固定收益 长债收益率可能再度下行 5-10BP——2 月债市投资策略：1 月中旬以来 长债超跌反弹，主要靠配置盘驱动。截至 2 月 6 日，10Y 及 30Y 国债收益率较 1 月 7 日高点下行了近 10BP。2026 年 1 月 1 日-2 月 6 日，券商及基金合计净卖出超长 （剩余期限 20Y 以上）利率债 1086 亿元，上年同期仅净卖出 57 亿；同时期，险资 净买入超长利率债 1206 亿元，城农商行净买入 500 亿元，同比分别多增 554 亿元 及 688 亿元。尽管券商自营及基金等交易盘大幅净卖出超长利率债，但债券收益率 回升提升了超长债的配置价值，城农商行及险资加大了超长债的配置力度，使得超 长债收益率有所回落。当前，债券收益率曲线较为陡峭，城农商行负债成本虽大幅 下行，但配 7Y 以内国债的利差较低，适度拉长久期才能获取较高的债券配置收益率。 我们预计，2026 年一季度城农商行负债成本率不少降至 1.6 ...

证券研究报告 有色金属 行业定期报告 板块表现： 库存累积，铜铝价格或迎来降波震荡 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（2026/2/2-2026/2/6） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 08 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 陈轩 SAC：S1350525120001 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 铜 ： 库 存 累 积 ， 铜 价 短 期 或 迎 来 降 波 震 荡 。 本 周 伦 铜 / 沪 铜 / 美 铜 涨 跌 幅 分 别 为 -4.02%/-3.45%/-1.33%。上周在高杠杆资金出清背景下金 ...