证券研究报告 建筑装饰 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 08 日 证券分析师 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 关税战，对内基建发力，对外一带一路 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——建筑装饰行业周报（20250331-20250406） 投资要点： 本周观点： 市场回顾： 风险提示：经济恢复不及预期，基建/地产投资增速不及预期，政策落地不及预期。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 1）海外业务持续突破，未来发展稳中求进。 截至目前，申万建筑板块已有 30 家公司披露 2024 年年报， 受基建项目落地放缓影响，行业整体业绩承压，营收、归母净利润同比增长的公司分别为 16 家和 ...

证券研究报告 环保 | 环境治理 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 08 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@huayuanstock.com 联系人 市场表现： | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | | | | 15.25 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 高 | | | | | | | 17.17/12.00 | 最 | | | 内 | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | 13,725.00 | | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | 3,660.00 | | | | | | | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, but the consolidation with China Merchants Railway has led to significant revenue growth [4] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of approximately 12.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.62%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was about 5.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.35% [6] - The company is focusing on its core business and has successfully completed the transition of the management of the Road King asset package, adding 276 kilometers of operational mileage [6] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 9.73 billion yuan (2023), 12.71 billion yuan (2024), 12.90 billion yuan (2025E), 13.23 billion yuan (2026E), and 13.60 billion yuan (2027E) [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 6.77 billion yuan (2023), 5.32 billion yuan (2024), 5.74 billion yuan (2025E), 6.19 billion yuan (2026E), and 6.70 billion yuan (2027E) [5] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 10.40% (2023), 7.47% (2024), 7.65% (2025E), 7.84% (2026E), and 8.05% (2027E) [5] Market Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 34.09% in 2024, a decrease of 2.87 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to asset optimization and adverse weather conditions [6] - The company’s operating expenses increased due to the consolidation with China Merchants Railway, with a total expense ratio of 20.92% in 2024, up by 1.34 percentage points year-on-year [6] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing expansion strategies and has made progress on various upgrade and expansion projects, including the completion of internal project approvals for the Ningbo-Taizhou-Wenzhou Expressway southern section [6] - The company has also completed the acquisition of the remaining 40% equity in Hunan Yonglan Expressway and is advancing the preliminary engineering for several other projects [6]

证券研究报告 农林牧渔 李冉 liran02@huayuanstock.com 行业定期报告 关税反制下的农业结构性机会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 07 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 证券分析师 雷轶 SAC：S1350524110001 leiyi@huayuanstock.com 冯佳文 SAC：S1350524120003 fengjiawen@huayuanstock.com 顾超 SAC：S1350524110005 guchao@huayuanstock.com ——农林牧渔行业周报（20250331-20250403） 投资要点： 生猪：标肥价差后市预期不足，二育逐步出栏兑现利润。 联系人 标肥价差收窄，肥猪供应压力或显现。本周涌益数据最新猪价降至 14.60 元/kg，出 栏均重增至 128.89kg，15Kg 仔猪涨至 659 元/头，175kg 标肥价差为 0.80 元/kg。 二育群体出栏意愿增强，延后的供应压力开始显现，猪价或有下行压力；中长期看 全年总体供给偏多，猪价弱势较为确定。产能方面，2 月农业部全国能繁母猪存栏量 4066 万头，即将超出 105%的产 ...

证券研究报告 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 内需有望进一步发力，地产止跌回稳意义重大 房地产 行业点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 07 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——美国宣布"对等关税"事件点评 投资要点： 风险提示：经济恢复不及预期，房地产量价超预期下行、房地产政策不及预期 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 事件：美国东部时间 4 月 2 日，美国总统特朗普宣布"对等关税"相关政策并签署 总统行政令，向所有贸易伙伴征收不同水平的关税，其中拟对中国加征 34%关税， 对欧盟、越南、中国台湾地区、日本、印度、韩国、泰国、瑞士、印度尼西亚、马 来西亚、柬埔 ...

证券研究报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 07 日 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 避险情绪升温，收益率大幅下行 ——信用分析周报（2025/3/31-2025/4/3） 投资要点： 3）负面舆情：鑫苑(中国)置业有限公司所发行"19 鑫苑 01"展期；江苏华宏科技 股份有限公司主体评级调低，其所发行的"华宏转债"债项评级调低。 本周市场分析：本周资金面边际收紧，公开市场共有 11868 亿元逆回购到期，央行 累计开展 6849 亿元逆回购操作，实现全周净回笼 5019 亿元。或受美国征收"对等 关税"事件以及清明假期等因素影响，本周市场避险情绪明显升温，交易量和换手 率较上周均有较大幅度下降。基于我们对当前中国利率处于历史最低位，25Q2 债市 或维持震荡的判断，我们认为后市信用利差继续大幅收窄的可能性或较低。 投资建议：总体来看，本周不同行业信用利差涨跌互现。城投债方面，3-5Y 城投信 用利差倒挂长端利差，且 3-5Y 信用利差处于较高历史分位，后续仍有较大收窄空间， 建议可选取发达地区的优质城投主 ...

hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 07 日 证券分析师 1证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 联系人 张付哲 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 关税对交运影响：内需与供应链重构迎来机遇 投资评级： 看好（维持） —交通运输行业周报（2025 年 3 月 31 日-2025 年 4 月 6 日） 投资要点： 一、行业动态跟踪 航空机场： 1）航空板块受特朗普关税影响将是综合性的：（1）油价大幅下行、内需政策值得 期待。4 月 3 日，OPEC+宣布自今年 5 月起增产 41.1 万桶/日，远超市场预期；叠 加特朗普超预期关税政策，4 月 3-4 日布油期货两天跌幅 12.5%，达 65.6 美元/桶， 较今年 1 月高点跌幅 20.1%，油价下行将大幅改善航司经营压 ...

证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 06 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com Al Agent 或将成为未来人机协同的主要模式，关注北交所布局 AI 应用企业 ——北交所科技成长产业跟踪第二十期（20250406） 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 内容目录 | 1. Al | Agent 正在各行业领域加速渗透，或将成为未来人机协同的主要模式 | 5 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2. | 总量：北交所科技成长股股价涨跌幅中值-1.72% | 10 | | 3. | 行业：新能源产业市盈率 TTM 中值+0.51%至 45.7X | 11 | | 4. | 公告：科润智控中标非洲某国家电气化计划项目 16 | | | 5. | 风险提示 | 16 | 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 第 2页/ 共 17页 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 投资要点： 请务必 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次覆盖) [5][44] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the Chinese trendy toy industry, leveraging its IP toy full industry chain operation capabilities. The expansion of overseas business is expected to unlock new growth potential [10][44] - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth, with net profit estimates of 58.99 billion RMB, 83.50 billion RMB, and 110.53 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 88.75%, 41.54%, and 32.38% [8][44] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the company is 162.60 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 218,362.56 million HKD [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 6,301 million RMB in 2023, 13,038 million RMB in 2024, 21,547 million RMB in 2025, 28,747 million RMB in 2026, and 35,864 million RMB in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 36.46%, 106.92%, 65.26%, 33.42%, and 24.76% [6][43] - The company’s net profit is expected to grow from 1,082.34 million RMB in 2023 to 5,899.17 million RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 127.55% in 2023 and 88.75% in 2025 [6][43] Industry Insights - The trendy toy market in China is rapidly growing, with a market size of 626 billion RMB in 2023 and a CAGR of 31.24% from 2019 to 2023. The target demographic primarily consists of individuals aged 15-39 [7][15] - The market concentration is increasing, with the top five companies' market share rising from 22.8% in 2019 to 26.4% in 2021. The company’s market share increased from 8.5% in 2019 to 13.6% in 2021 [21][7] Revenue Drivers - The company’s revenue is significantly driven by its proprietary artist IP, which is projected to generate 111.21 billion RMB in 2024, accounting for 85.30% of total revenue, with a CAGR of 60.12% from 2020 to 2024 [30][8] - The overseas business is emerging as a new growth driver, with revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas markets expected to reach 50.66 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 375% [35][8] Cost Management - The company is expected to maintain a sales expense ratio of 26.00%, 25.00%, and 24.00% from 2025 to 2027, while the management expense ratio is projected to decrease to 5.50%, 5.00%, and 4.50% in the same period [39][9]

证券研究报告 医药生物 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 06 日 刘闯 SAC：S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 孙洁玲 SAC：S1350524120004 sunjieling@huayuanstock.com 联系人 板块表现： 政策持续支持中药创新，关注健民集团 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——医药行业周报（25/3/31-25/4/3） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 本周医药市场表现分析：3 月 31 日至 4 月 3 日，医药指数上涨 1.20%，相对沪深 300 指数超额收益为+2.57%。本周创新药板块继续活跃，科伦药业、海思科、一品红、恒瑞 医药等前期滞涨标的涨幅较好，出口产业链受美国关税影响，表现较差。近期美国推出 "对等关税"，中国政府宣布反制关税，建议关注：1）国产替代机会，建议关注医疗器 械（联影医疗、开立医疗、澳华内镜、天臣医疗、惠泰医疗、微电生理、迈普医学）、 血制品（派林生物、天坛生物、博雅生物）以及上游产业链等；2）关注消费类资产，中 药（华润三九、东阿阿胶、 ...