Fixed Income - The report analyzes the new regulatory framework for insurance companies, highlighting five major changes aimed at improving asset-liability management [9][10] - The insurance industry's solvency indicators declined in Q3 2025, attributed to increased equity capital usage and dual pressure on liabilities [11] - Investment returns improved due to rising long-term bond yields and favorable A-share performance, reducing overall industry risk [12] - A selection of insurance subordinated bonds with specific criteria is recommended for investment, including those from major state-owned insurance companies [14] Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical index fell by 3.31% recently, with a notable trend of Chinese innovative drugs expanding into international markets [15][17] - Companies like China Biopharmaceutical are enhancing their R&D capabilities through acquisitions and self-developed products, positioning themselves for potential overseas opportunities [18] - A focus on innovative drugs is recommended, with specific companies highlighted for their strong fundamentals and potential for stock price recovery [19] New Consumption - Ruoyu Chen and Wancheng Group are projected to see significant profit growth in 2025, driven by their proprietary brand business and operational efficiency improvements [21][23] - The government is promoting new service consumption growth points, aiming to enhance service supply and consumer experience [25][26] - The snack retail sector is evolving, with companies like Mingming Hen Mang rapidly expanding and innovating to meet consumer demands [24] North Exchange - The North Exchange indices saw over 6% growth in January 2026, indicating a market rebound and highlighting specific sectors for investment opportunities [28][29] - The overall market liquidity remains ample, with a focus on structural investment opportunities in specialized and innovative enterprises [29][30] Media - Alibaba's FY2026Q3 revenue is expected to reach 288.1 billion yuan, with cloud business growth anticipated despite a slowdown in e-commerce [32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report indicates that macroeconomic fluctuations are intensifying, leading to potential price adjustments for copper and aluminum. The copper prices may experience volatility due to a strong dollar and profit-taking by long positions in the market. Meanwhile, aluminum prices are also expected to face similar adjustments due to macroeconomic pressures [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at 3.75% during its January meeting, with Kevin Warsh nominated as the next Fed Chair, viewed as a hawkish choice [9]. - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. exceeded expectations, indicating potential economic challenges [9]. 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 3.37%, while the index itself fell by 0.44% [11]. - The sector ranked fourth among all sectors in terms of performance, with notable movements in gold, copper, and tungsten [11]. 3. Price and Inventory Changes - Copper prices saw an increase of 3.54% in London and 2.31% in Shanghai, while aluminum prices fluctuated with a 4.89% increase in Shanghai but a 1.39% decrease in London [22][36]. - Inventory levels for copper and aluminum showed mixed trends, with copper inventories increasing and aluminum inventories showing both increases and decreases across different markets [22][36]. 4. Specific Metal Insights - **Copper**: The report notes a potential shift from a tight balance to a shortage in the copper supply-demand landscape, driven by insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining and frequent supply disruptions [5]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is expected to face a supply surplus in the short term, but with stable demand growth, a potential shortage may arise later in the year [5]. - **Lithium**: Despite a seasonal downturn, lithium demand remains strong, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics expected to drive prices upward [5]. - **Cobalt**: The cobalt market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with prices expected to continue rising due to structural constraints [5]. 5. Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring specific companies within the sector, including Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and Ganfeng Lithium, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated market dynamics [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The Chinese biopharmaceutical sector is expected to enter a new era of innovative drug exports in 2026, with significant opportunities arising from strategic acquisitions and internal research and development [3][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting strong fundamental innovative drug stocks that have undergone sufficient adjustments, as well as actively monitoring new medical technologies and companies poised for recovery in 2026 [4][41] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - From January 26 to January 30, the pharmaceutical index fell by 3.31%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.39%. Notably, the market has seen a significant adjustment in the innovative drug sector since August 2025, with the lowest holdings in active funds since 2021 [5][21] - The report highlights that 58 stocks rose while 407 stocks fell during the week, with notable gainers including Cap Bio (+26.49%) and Hualan Biological (+12.80%) [5][22] Company Insights - China Biopharmaceutical is enhancing its core competitiveness through strategic acquisitions and self-research, which is expected to lead to more opportunities for international expansion. The acquisition of Hegia in January 2026 and Lixin Pharmaceutical in July 2025 are key moves to strengthen its pipeline in chronic diseases and oncology [8][13] - The report identifies Hegia's siRNA delivery technology as a significant advancement, allowing for long-lasting treatment options in chronic diseases, while Lixin's unique LM-TME platform is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in oncology [9][11][14] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative drug companies such as Heng Rui Medicine, Xin Li Tai, and China Biopharmaceutical, as well as companies involved in new medical technologies like AI healthcare and brain-computer interfaces [41][43] - It also highlights the potential for recovery in the medical device and pharmaceutical manufacturing sectors in 2026, recommending stocks that are currently undervalued [41][42] Market Trends - The report notes that the Chinese pharmaceutical industry has completed a transition from generic to innovative drugs, with companies like Heng Rui Medicine and China Biopharmaceutical leading the way in innovation [41][42] - The aging population and increasing healthcare demands are expected to drive growth in the sector, supported by a stable increase in medical insurance revenues and the development of a multi-tiered payment system [41][42]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The new "Insurance Company Asset - Liability Management Measures (Draft for Comment)" has five major changes, aiming to strengthen the supervision of insurance companies' asset - liability management and guide long - term operations [2]. - In 25Q3, the solvency indicators of the insurance industry declined, mainly due to the increase in equity capital occupation and the pressure on both the asset and liability sides [2]. - The rise in long - term bond yields and the good performance of the A - share market in 25Q3 improved the investment returns of the insurance industry and reduced industry risks, but the credit risks of some under - performing insurers need attention [2]. - Large - scale life insurance companies have an advantage in scale premium growth, while small and medium - sized insurers show significant differentiation [2]. - The issuance scale of insurance sub - debt has shrunk [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs New "Insurance Company Asset - Liability Management Measures (Draft for Comment)" - **Five major changes**: System integration, organizational framework improvement, clear regulatory indicators, optimized indicator calculation methods, and improved regulatory measures [2][4]. - **Regulatory indicators for property insurance companies**: Precipitation fund coverage ratio to prevent short - term fund long - term investment, income coverage ratio and pressure - scenario liquidity coverage ratio to guide long - term operations [2][5]. - **Regulatory indicators for life insurance companies**: Effective duration gap to prevent asset - liability table fluctuations, comprehensive investment income coverage ratio and net investment income coverage ratio to guide long - term operations [2][5]. 25Q3 Insurance Industry Solvency - **Solvency indicators**: The comprehensive solvency ratio was 186.3% and the core solvency ratio was 134.3%, down 18.2 and 13.5 percentage points respectively from 25Q2, mainly due to the decline of life insurance companies [2]. - **Reasons for the decline**: Increased equity asset allocation, higher risk factors for equity assets under the new rules, and pressure on both the asset and liability sides [2]. 25Q3 Insurance Industry Investment and Profit - **Investment returns**: The rise in long - term bond yields and the good performance of the A - share market improved investment returns, with the total net profit of most insurers with outstanding insurance sub - debt increasing from 92.7 billion yuan in Q2 to 246.9 billion yuan in Q3 [2][24]. - **Profit differentiation**: Among 41 insurers with available data and outstanding insurance sub - debt, property insurance companies' net profit decreased by 3.306 billion yuan in 25Q3, while life insurance companies' net profit increased by 155.65 billion yuan [2]. Scale Premium Growth of Insurance Companies - **Large - scale life insurance companies**: As of 25Q3, China Post Life and New China Life had year - on - year scale premium growth rates of 18.65% and 17.96% respectively, showing relatively high and stable growth [2]. - **Small and medium - sized life insurance companies**: There was significant differentiation, with some companies having high growth rates and others having negative growth [2]. Insurance Sub - debt Issuance - **Issuance scale**: In 2024, 117.5 billion yuan of insurance sub - debt was issued, with 57.3 billion yuan in 24Q3. In 2025, 104.2 billion yuan was issued, a 11.3% year - on - year decrease. As of January 22, 2026, only 5 billion yuan was issued [2]. Investment Recommendations - Screened state - owned and central - owned enterprise insurance company sub - debt with a valuation yield > 2.2%, core solvency ratio > 100%, comprehensive solvency ratio > 150%, and risk comprehensive rating of BBB or above, such as 24 China Property Insurance Capital Supplementary Bond, 25 Great Wall Life Perpetual Bond 01, etc. [3]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the company, with a recommendation to pay attention to its competitive position in the orthopedic surgical solutions market [4][42]. Core Insights - The company, Aide Technology, specializes in orthopedic consumables and has a projected net profit of 77.75 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.82% [4][39]. - The company plans to use the funds raised from its IPO for expanding production capacity, building a research center, and developing a marketing network, which is expected to enhance sales scale and market share [12][14]. - The orthopedic medical device market in China is projected to reach 24.6 billion yuan by 2024, with significant growth in various segments such as spinal implants and trauma devices [42][50]. Company Overview - Aide Technology was established in 2006 and focuses on the research, production, and sales of orthopedic medical devices, including spinal, trauma, and sports medicine products [14][39]. - The company holds 110 patents and has several core products certified by the EU CE authority [14][39]. - The sales model primarily relies on distributors, with the top five customers accounting for 31.87% of total sales in the first half of 2025 [35][36]. Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 262 million yuan in 2023 to 302 million yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2% from 2022 to 2025 [39]. - The gross margin is expected to decline slightly from 62.45% in 2022 to 58.90% in 2025, while the net profit margin is projected to decrease from 32.70% to 25.85% over the same period [39][41]. Industry Insights - The orthopedic medical device industry is rapidly growing, with the market for orthopedic implants expected to reach 24.6 billion yuan by 2024 [42][50]. - The spinal implant market specifically is projected to grow to 7.2 billion yuan in 2024, despite a temporary decline due to national procurement policies [46][48]. - The trauma implant market is also expected to recover, reaching 3.9 billion yuan in 2024, following a downturn in previous years [52].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The report anticipates that Alibaba's cloud business will accelerate growth in FY26Q3, while e-commerce growth may slow down [5] - Total revenue for FY26Q3 is expected to reach 288.1 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 3% [5] - Adjusted EBITA margin is projected to be 11%, with adjusted EBITA declining by 43% to 31 billion RMB, primarily due to ongoing investments in the Taobao Flash Sale business [5] Financial Forecasts - For the Chinese e-commerce group, revenue is expected to be 164.3 billion RMB, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 23% [5] - The international digital commerce group is projected to generate revenue of 40.8 billion RMB, with an adjusted EBITA margin of -5% [5] - The cloud intelligence group is expected to achieve revenue of 42.9 billion RMB, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 9% [5][6] Business Segment Analysis - The Chinese e-commerce group is facing growth pressure due to a high base effect and overall industry slowdown, with revenue expected to grow by only 3% [7] - The company aims to become the market leader in the Taobao Flash Sale segment, with significant investments planned to achieve this goal [7] - The international digital commerce group is focusing on key regions to enhance operational efficiency, with revenue expected to grow by 8% [8] Profitability and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for FY2026 is 116.1 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decline of 11% [8] - The projected PE ratios for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are 25, 23, and 17 times, respectively [8] - The report highlights a focus on e-commerce and cloud business segments, with the company maintaining a "Buy" rating due to its strategic initiatives [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the context of the current inverted Sino-US interest rate spread and the continuous increase in the attractiveness of RMB assets, the supply of dim sum bonds is expected to maintain growth in 2026, but the differentiation of the internal supply structure may continue [1][39] - The issuance of urban investment dim sum bonds in 2026 may continue the pattern of "stable and slightly decreasing total volume and continuous differentiation in quality", and high - quality urban investment platforms may maintain a stable supply [1][39] - High - quality industrial entities may become the core growth source of the dim sum bond market in 2026 [1][40] - Innovative varieties of dim sum bonds are expected to increase in volume, and attention should be paid to the income mining opportunities in the initial stage of expansion [1][41] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Dim Sum Bond Market: Ample Liquidity, Policy Support, and Enhanced Attractiveness of RMB Assets - In 2025, the offshore RMB market had ample liquidity. The global liquidity environment showed overall looseness under policy differentiation. The 3M CNH HIBOR was at a historically low level, the 1Y CNH - CNY swap spread approached zero, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority取消 the 25BP additional premium for offshore RMB, and the offshore RMB deposit scale continued to expand [7][9] - The central bank introduced a series of policies to support overseas financing, including raising the cross - border financing macro - prudential adjustment parameters, issuing offshore central bank bills, and launching a pilot green foreign debt business [13][15] - The inverted Sino - US interest rate spread eased, and the exchange rate environment improved, potentially boosting the investment attractiveness of overseas RMB assets. The RMB exchange rate showed a trend of "first weak then strong and narrowing fluctuations" [16] 2. Structural Distribution and Opportunity Mining of Existing Dim Sum Bonds - As of December 24, 2025, the total scale of dim sum bonds was 14,436.81 billion yuan. Financial dim sum bonds were the main component, with a scale of 5628 billion yuan, accounting for 40%. The scale and proportion of urban investment dim sum bonds decreased, while the scale of industrial dim sum bonds significantly expanded [20] - Different types of dim sum bonds had obvious yield differentiation. Urban investment and industrial dim sum bonds had a coupon yield of over 3%, while the weighted average yield - to - call of non - bank financial bonds was 2.29%, and that of other types of dim sum bonds was less than 2%. After considering cross - border investment costs, they were less cost - effective than domestic bonds [24] - For urban investment dim sum bonds, the top five provinces in terms of existing scale were Shandong, Sichuan, Henan, Jiangsu, and Hubei, with a total scale of 1598 billion yuan. The existing scale of 1 - 3Y AA + urban investment bonds was 933 billion yuan, and the yield - to - call of 1 - 3Y AA + urban investment entities in Shandong and Hubei was over 5% [26] - The yield of industrial dim sum bonds showed a pattern of "low for leading enterprises and high for small and medium - sized enterprises". The yield of bonds issued by leading technology enterprises was relatively limited, while that of high - quality private enterprises and small and medium - sized private enterprises in new energy and high - end manufacturing was mostly higher than the average. The average yield - to - call of AAA entities in the top five industries was less than 3.3%, and it was advisable to moderately lower the credit rating to AA + to mine coupon income [31][32] 3. Outlook for the Dim Sum Bond Market in 2026 - Urban investment dim sum bonds: The issuance in 2026 may continue the pattern of "stable and slightly decreasing total volume and continuous differentiation in quality". High - quality urban investment platforms in economically developed areas such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong may increase the issuance scale, while weak - quality platforms may continue to withdraw from the offshore RMB bond market [39] - Industrial dim sum bonds: High - quality industrial entities may become the core growth source of the dim sum bond market in 2026, driven by the cost advantage of offshore RMB bond financing and policy support [40] - Innovative varieties of dim sum bonds: Green dim sum bonds are expected to achieve a double breakthrough in scale and variety in 2026, and innovative varieties such as sustainable development - linked bonds and blue bonds are expected to further expand [41]

hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 30 日 证券研究报告 电力设备 行业点评报告 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 豆鹏超 doupengchao@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 电网投资持续位居高位 储能装机高景气 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——电力设备 2025 年业绩前瞻 投资要点： 风险提示：产品毛利率水平低于预期；项目跨期交付风险；竞争格局恶化风险 资料来源：Wind，华源证券研究所。注：除已出业绩预告的公司（华明装备）外，其余公司 2025 年归母净利润预测均来自华源证券研究所 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 第 2页/ 共 3页 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 电网设备："十五五"国网投资有望再上台阶。按照 Wind 口径，2025 年前 11 个 月电网投资完成额 56 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-bank financial sector [4][7]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights an increase in the proportion of non-bank financial holdings by public funds, with a significant increase in insurance allocations. The current holdings in the non-bank financial sector remain underweight compared to the market [4][5]. - Public funds' holdings in the non-bank financial sector rose by 0.96 percentage points to 1.97% in Q4 2025, with insurance seeing the most notable increase [5][10]. - The report suggests that the insurance sector is expected to achieve good growth in 2026, driven by improved net premium income and reduced asset allocation pressure due to rising long-term bond yields [7][8]. Summary by Sections Public Fund Holdings - In Q4 2025, the total holding of non-bank financials by public funds reached 370.64 billion, with an allocation of 1.97%, up from 1.00% in Q3 2025 [9][10]. - The breakdown of holdings shows insurance at 1.32%, securities at 0.58%, and diversified finance at 0.06%, with significant increases in insurance holdings [5][9]. Individual Stocks - The top five A-share stocks held by public funds in the non-bank financial sector are China Ping An (158.14 billion), China Pacific Insurance (47.88 billion), CITIC Securities (37.26 billion), Huatai Securities (25.21 billion), and New China Life Insurance (20.37 billion) [6][13]. - The report notes that the largest increases in holdings were also seen in these stocks, particularly China Ping An and China Pacific Insurance [6][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends China Life Insurance, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance for their strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [7][8]. - For the brokerage sector, it suggests focusing on CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and Industrial Securities due to their growth prospects and market positioning [8].

Group 1: New Consumption - Ruoyuchen (003010.SZ) - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 176 million to 200 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 66.61%-89.33% [2][5] - The significant growth in performance is primarily driven by rapid revenue growth from proprietary brands, high performance in brand management, and effective cost reduction strategies [6][7] - The company has established a competitive advantage in various categories such as health products, maternal and infant care, beauty and personal care, and food and beverages, with plans to continue expanding its proprietary brand portfolio [6][7] Group 2: Transportation - Haifeng International (01308.HK) - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.2 to 1.23 billion USD for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 16%-18.9% [9][12] - The company has built a differentiated advantage through a high-frequency, point-to-point direct shipping network, which supports performance growth amid stable demand for container trade in Asia [9][10] - The expected container volume for 2025 is approximately 3.85 million TEU, with an average revenue per container of about 753.0 USD/TEU, indicating a year-on-year increase of approximately 4.4% [9][10] Group 3: Transportation - Southern Airlines (600029.SH) - The company is expected to have a fleet size of 972 aircraft by the end of 2025, maintaining a high passenger load factor of 85.7%, which is an increase of 1.36 percentage points year-on-year [13][14] - The focus on international routes is expected to drive an 18.5% year-on-year growth in international available seat kilometers (ASK), leading to potential market share expansion [13][14] - The company has shown continuous improvement in operations, with a projected passenger volume of 174 million for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [14][15]