1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of each link in the non - ferrous metal industry chain are jointly repaired, and the core indicators of the issuing entities in the non - ferrous metal industry have improved [1][4]. - It is recommended to focus on allocating AA+/AAA - rated central enterprises and regional leading state - owned enterprises, and select entities with relatively superior core financial indicators, and appropriately extend the duration for higher coupon yields [3][56]. - The credit spread of non - ferrous metal industrial bonds has been narrowing, and coupon income may need to be explored in the medium - and long - term of high - quality central and state - owned enterprises [51][52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1产业链各环节基本面协同修复 - **Overall Industry Operation**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the industrial added value of the non - ferrous metal mining and dressing industry above the national scale was 7.6%, and that of the smelting and rolling processing industry was 7.1%. The output of ten common non - ferrous metals reached 7,447.4 million tons, and the overall operating income scale exceeded 9 trillion yuan, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.3% [5]. - **Upstream Resource Mining**: Central and local state - owned enterprises dominate. China has advantages in rare metals like rare earths but has a high external dependence on strategic minerals. In 2025, the price of non - ferrous metals showed an upward trend, driving the improvement of the operating conditions of upstream mining enterprises [1][8][9]. - **Mid - stream Smelting and Processing**: In January - November 2025, the output of refined copper and electrolytic aluminum increased by 7.0% and 2.4% respectively. The output of deep - processed products was much higher than that of smelting products. There was a structural differentiation in the prosperity, with new - energy metal smelting being a highlight [2][16][22]. - **Downstream Application**: Basic metals are mainly used in traditional industries, while lithium, cobalt, and nickel are used in emerging fields. In 2024, the demand for lithium increased by nearly 30%, and the demand for nickel and cobalt increased by 6% - 8%, with the new - energy industry being the core driving force [23]. 3.2有色金属行业发行主体核心指标改善 - **Profitability**: From Q1 to Q3 in 2025, 36 issuing entities achieved a total operating income of 41,067 billion yuan and a net profit of 2,058 billion yuan, with year - on - year increases of 8.5% and 30.6% respectively. The average ROE was 6.91%, and the average net sales profit margin was 6.04%, both showing significant improvements [4][25]. - **Operating Ability**: The average inventory turnover was 6.27 times, and the average current asset turnover was 2.45 times, with year - on - year increases of 0.28 and 0.17 times respectively, indicating improved payment collection and capital return efficiency [4][27]. - **Solvency**: As of Q3 2025, the average asset - liability ratio was 58.0%, the current ratio was 1.18 times, and the quick ratio was 0.61 times. The EBITDA interest coverage ratio increased significantly, indicating enhanced debt repayment ability [4][33]. 3.3有色金属产业债结构分布及机会挖掘 - **Bond Structure**: As of January 7, 2026, there were 290 non - ferrous metal industrial bonds with a total balance of 290.1 billion yuan. Most of the bonds were issued by state - owned enterprises and had high ratings, and the remaining maturity was mostly less than 3 years [43]. - **Credit Spread**: Since 2025, the credit spread of non - ferrous metal industrial bonds has been narrowing, mainly due to the low - interest - rate environment, sufficient capital, and the improvement of industry fundamentals [51]. - **Coupon Income**: The average static coupon of AA+ and above bonds with a remaining maturity of less than 3 years is less than 2%. Coupon income may need to be explored in the medium - and long - term of high - quality central and state - owned enterprises, such as the 3 - 5Y AA+ bonds with a static coupon of 2.13% as of January 7, 2026 [52]. - **Recommended Bonds**: The report recommends some 3 - 5Y non - ferrous metal industrial bonds issued by central and state - owned enterprises for investors' reference [58][59].

Group 1: Metal New Materials - Copper prices are expected to experience high-level fluctuations in the short term due to inventory accumulation and delayed tariff expectations, with LME and COMEX arbitrage space narrowing [8][9] - Aluminum prices are also anticipated to face high-level fluctuations, driven by inventory accumulation and the impact of delayed tariff expectations [9] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with carbonate lithium prices entering an upward cycle, while cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply [10][11] Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have been rising, attributed to weak U.S. employment data and changes in margin requirements for precious metal contracts, which may increase market volatility [13][14] - The geopolitical situation, including U.S. military actions in Venezuela, has heightened demand for safe-haven assets, contributing to the upward momentum in precious metals [14][15] - China's gold reserves increased to 74.15 million ounces by the end of December 2025, reflecting ongoing central bank purchases that support gold prices [18] Group 3: North Exchange Market - The North Exchange has begun disclosing 2025 earnings, with Lin Tai New Materials and Hai Neng Technology forecasting significant profit increases, indicating a positive market outlook [19][20] - The market is expected to maintain liquidity, with structural investment opportunities arising from the technology sector and a focus on companies with strong fundamentals and reasonable valuations [20] - Key investment directions include companies with expected earnings growth, those in the service consumption sector, and firms in the new energy vehicle export chain benefiting from reduced tariffs [20] Group 4: New Consumption - Chao Hong Ji anticipates a substantial increase in net profit for 2025, driven by store expansion and improved brand strength, with a projected profit range of 436 to 533 million yuan [22][23] - The approval of a new medical device by Juzi Biotechnology marks a significant milestone, indicating growth potential in the healthcare sector [23] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding new consumer trends and suggests focusing on high-quality domestic brands in various sectors [24][25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Copper prices may experience high-level fluctuations in the short term due to inventory accumulation and delayed tariff expectations. Recent price changes for copper include a decrease of -0.50% for LME copper, -0.63% for SHFE copper, and -0.71% for COMEX copper. The significant inventory accumulation includes LME copper at 144,000 tons (+3.31%), COMEX copper at 54,300 short tons (+4.81%), and SHFE copper at 214,000 tons (+18.3%). The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory is at 321,000 tons (+17.20%). The operating rate for electrolytic copper rods increased to 57.47% (+9.65 percentage points) [4] - Aluminum prices are also expected to face high-level fluctuations due to inventory accumulation. The price of alumina has decreased by 1.12% to 2,655 CNY/ton, while SHFE aluminum rose by 0.83% to 24,185 CNY/ton. The operating capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina is at 89.16 million tons/year with an operating rate of 80.82% (+0.31 percentage points). Domestic aluminum production capacity is nearing its ceiling, and demand is expected to grow, potentially leading to a shortage [4] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with carbonate lithium prices rising by 12.86% to 158,000 CNY/ton. The production of lithium carbonate is at 22,600 tons, with a slight increase of 0.3%. The demand for lithium battery materials continues to grow, and the supply-demand dynamics are expected to reverse, leading to an upward price trend [4] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply. The price of MB cobalt increased by 0.59% to 25.68 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices fell by 1.31% to 452,000 CNY/ton. The supply structure remains tight, and prices are likely to rise further [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The macroeconomic indicators show that the US December CPI year-on-year rate is at 2.70%, matching expectations. Retail sales for November increased by 0.6%, exceeding expectations of 0.4% [8] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector shows an increase of 3.03%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.48 percentage points, ranking third among the Shenwan sectors [10] 2. Industrial Metals - Copper: LME copper price decreased by 0.50%, SHFE copper by 0.63%, and COMEX copper by 0.71%. Inventory levels increased significantly, with LME copper inventory up by 3.31% and SHFE copper inventory up by 18.26% [24] - Aluminum: LME aluminum price fell by 0.73%, while SHFE aluminum rose by 0.83%. The inventory situation shows a mixed trend, with LME aluminum inventory down by 1.97% and SHFE aluminum inventory up by 29.24% [34] - Lead and Zinc: LME lead price increased by 1.03%, and SHFE lead by 1.62%. LME zinc price rose by 3.17%, and SHFE zinc by 4.38%. The mining profit for zinc increased by 5.77% to 11,284 CNY/ton [48] - Tin and Nickel: LME tin price rose by 11.68%, and SHFE tin by 18.70%. LME nickel price increased by 0.14%, and SHFE nickel by 5.77% [62] 3. Energy Metals - Lithium: The price of lithium carbonate increased by 12.86% to 158,000 CNY/ton, with lithium spodumene rising by 5.32% to 1,980 USD/ton. The profit margins for lithium production are showing significant fluctuations [78] - Cobalt: The price of MB cobalt increased by 0.59% to 25.68 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices decreased by 1.31% to 452,000 CNY/ton. The supply dynamics remain tight, supporting price increases [90]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The precious metals sector, particularly gold and silver, has seen strong price increases, with London spot gold rising by 5.93% to $4611.05 per ounce and silver increasing by 22.35% to $90.80 per ounce over the past two weeks [4][9] - The recent price surge is attributed to several factors, including weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data, changes in margin requirements for precious metal contracts by CME, and geopolitical tensions involving Venezuela [4][5] - The report suggests that the "Trump 2.0" and "rate cut trade" themes will continue to support gold prices in the medium term, with a focus on upcoming economic indicators and Federal Reserve decisions [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Price Trends - Over the last two weeks, gold prices have increased significantly, with London spot gold up 5.93% and Shanghai gold up 5.60%. Silver prices have surged by 22.35% in London and 31.68% in Shanghai [9][10] 2. U.S. Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The report highlights that the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 50,000 jobs in December 2025, below expectations, and the unemployment rate was recorded at 4.4%, indicating a slowdown in job growth [4][5] 3. Positions and Trading Volume - The report notes an increase in trading volumes, with Shanghai gold positions rising by 10.39% to 347,100 contracts and silver positions increasing by 12.21% to 719,100 contracts [9][10] 4. Domestic and International Price Differences and Gold Benchmark Ratios - The report indicates that the gold price difference between domestic and international markets is -4.33 CNY per gram, while the silver price difference is 2217.87 CNY per kilogram [57] 5. Futures Basis Situation - As of the latest report, the international gold basis (spot-futures) is $9.95 per ounce, showing a decrease, while the domestic gold basis is -1.23 CNY per gram, indicating an increase [63]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, focusing on companies with expected performance improvements and high barriers to entry [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Lin Tai New Materials anticipates a net profit of 133.3 to 150.7 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 64.48% to 85.95%, driven by stable sales in traditional automotive and rapid growth in hybrid vehicle components [3][6]. - Hai Neng Technology expects a net profit of 41 to 44 million yuan for 2025, with a significant year-on-year increase of 213.65% to 236.61%, attributed to overall market demand recovery and advancements in high-end instrument manufacturing [3][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and reasonable valuations, particularly those with expected performance improvements in 2025 [3][6]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecasts - Lin Tai New Materials projects a net profit of 133.3 to 150.7 million yuan for 2025, with growth driven by stable sales in traditional automotive and rapid growth in hybrid vehicle components [3][6]. - Hai Neng Technology forecasts a net profit of 41 to 44 million yuan for 2025, with growth driven by market demand recovery and advancements in high-end instruments [3][6]. Market Trends - The report notes that the North Exchange market is experiencing significant fluctuations, with the North Certificate 50 index declining by 3.6% [3][6]. - The overall PE ratio for North Exchange A shares has risen to 49X, indicating a recovery in market valuations [12][15]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on three main areas for investment: companies with expected performance improvements, those related to service consumption, and companies in the new energy vehicle export chain [3][6]. - It highlights the potential for structural investment opportunities within the North Exchange, particularly in specialized and innovative enterprises [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Focus" on the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the new fertilizer sector [2][4]. Core Insights - The company is recognized as a national-level "Manufacturing Single Champion Demonstration Enterprise" in the new fertilizer industry, with plans to expand production capacity for organic fertilizers [2][14]. - The company has a strong market position, ranking second in the production and sales of humic acid compound fertilizers in China, and has achieved significant innovation with 45 invention patents and 35 utility model patents [2][14]. - The company’s revenue from new fertilizers has shown a stable trend, with a projected revenue of CNY 2.363 billion in 2024, despite a slight decline in growth rates [2][19][30]. Summary by Sections Initial Offering - The company plans to issue 16 million shares at a price of CNY 25 per share, with an expected market capitalization of CNY 760 million post-issue [5][6]. - The funds raised will be allocated to projects including a 300,000-ton annual production of humic acid intelligent high tower compound fertilizer and a 150,000-ton biological fertilizer production line [12][13]. Business Overview - The company specializes in new fertilizers, including humic acid-enhanced fertilizers, controlled-release fertilizers, and water-soluble fertilizers, with a focus on innovation and technology [14][19]. - The revenue from new fertilizers for 2022 to the first half of 2025 was CNY 1.968 billion, CNY 1.939 billion, CNY 1.924 billion, and CNY 1.248 billion, respectively, with a significant contribution to the main business revenue [19][20]. Industry Analysis - The global fertilizer market is expected to grow, with a projected demand of 224 million tons by 2029, driven by increasing agricultural needs [2][38]. - The Chinese new fertilizer market has expanded from CNY 235.2 billion in 2015 to CNY 307.2 billion in 2023, with a forecasted growth rate of approximately 9% annually over the next five years [2][50]. Financial Performance - The company’s net profit is expected to rise from CNY 128 million in 2021 to CNY 145 million in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 4.41% [30][33]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is between CNY 2.2 billion and CNY 2.4 billion, with a potential net profit of CNY 135 million to CNY 155 million [30][31].

证券研究报告 固收专题报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 16 日 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com ——银行理财资产配置专题分析 马赫 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com 固收+理财现状、竞争格局与配置策略 固收+理财的核心特征与市场定位。固收+理财以固定收益资产为底层配置，通过叠 加权益资产或策略增厚收益，形成"安全垫+弹性收益"的平衡结构。其本质是通过 股债黄金等相关性低的资产分散风险，在低利率环境下突破纯固收收益率瓶颈，满 足投资者对稳健收益与适度弹性的双重需求。本文讨论的固收+理财指含权资产（含 权基金、股票等）配置比例小于 30%的含权银行理财产品。 固收+理财市场驱动因素。资管新规打破刚兑后，固收+或能成为承接万亿级存量资 金的主力工具，同时养老金融需求持续增加，理财公司积极布局个人养老金产品。 存款利率明显下调与债券收益率下行或使资金转向固收+产品。 1. 市场现状：混合类理财和权益类理财规模持续下降，25Q3 含权理财和 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated a robust performance with a 10% growth in offline retail sales for both adult and children's segments in Q4 2025. The e-commerce platform also recorded high double-digit growth despite external disruptions [7] - The company has launched multiple new products and collaborations, enhancing its brand influence through technological innovations and partnerships [7] - The expansion of "super stores" has exceeded expectations, with 126 stores opened by the end of 2025, including 105 large-format stores and 21 children's stores [7] - The company is expected to see a steady increase in net profit, with projections of RMB 1.315 billion, RMB 1.489 billion, and RMB 1.684 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 14.50%, 13.20%, and 13.13% [6][7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 10,073.51 million in 2024, RMB 11,540.03 million in 2025, RMB 13,113.23 million in 2026, and RMB 14,773.90 million in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 19.59%, 14.56%, 13.63%, and 12.66% [6][8] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 12.25% in 2024, 12.75% in 2025, 12.60% in 2026, and 12.47% in 2027 [6][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 11.54 in 2023 to 6.59 in 2027, indicating an attractive valuation over time [6]

Industry Overview - The domestic automotive market is under pressure, with a projected decline of 2% in overall passenger vehicle insurance in 2026, while new energy vehicles (NEVs) are expected to see a growth of 6% [4] - The growth in passenger vehicle exports is anticipated to reach nearly 1 million units in 2026, primarily driven by NEV exports, supported by several manufacturers' quality products and channel expansions [4][12] - The penetration rate of NEVs is expected to exceed 50%, leading to a slowdown in growth as the market matures [4][18] Stock Recommendations - Focus on structural opportunities in ultra-luxury models and exports, as companies with strong product cycles may navigate the industry's weak sentiment [4] - Recommended stocks include Jianghuai Automobile (Zun Jie), Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motors, Leap Motor, and Xiaomi Group-W, which are expected to benefit from structural opportunities and product cycles [4][12] Valuation Insights - Companies with strong product cycles may experience valuation re-evaluations if there are revolutionary changes in autonomous driving technology, particularly if Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology sees significant advancements [4] - Companies like XPeng Motors, Li Auto, and Seres are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of this valuation shift [4] Market Dynamics - The 2026 domestic market is expected to be influenced significantly by the replacement demand, which has surpassed 50% in 2025, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards vehicle replacement rather than new purchases [12][14] - The old-for-new vehicle policy is set to decline, which may further impact the sales performance of passenger vehicles in 2026, with expectations of a weak market performance [14][16] Energy Structure Outlook - The reduction of NEV purchase tax subsidies and high penetration rates are likely to slow down the growth of NEVs in 2026, with increased costs due to rising battery material prices [18][20] - The anticipated changes in subsidy structures may lead to higher retail prices for NEVs, affecting consumer purchasing decisions [18][20]

Group 1: Investment Rating of the Report - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Credit demand remains weak, with new loans in December slightly lower year-on-year. Personal loans decreased by 916 million yuan, and corporate loans increased by 1.07 trillion yuan. Personal short-term loans decreased by 1023 million yuan, and personal long-term loans increased by 100 million yuan, indicating weak consumer and mortgage credit demand. Corporate short-term loans increased by 370 billion yuan, corporate long-term loans increased by 330 billion yuan, and bill financing increased by 350 billion yuan, suggesting the use of corporate short-term loans and bill financing to boost credit scale [2]. - The growth rate of M1 continued to decline. The new - caliber M1 growth rate at the end of December was 3.8%, down 1.1 percentage points from the end of last month. The M1 growth rate has been falling since the end of September. The M2 growth rate at the end of December was 8.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the end of last month [2]. - The social financing growth rate continued to decline in December, and it may continue to fall in 2026. The social financing increment in December was 2.21 trillion yuan, significantly lower than the same period last year. The shortfall mainly came from the net financing of government bonds. It is expected that new loans (in the social financing caliber) will slightly decrease year - on - year in 2026, the net financing of government bonds will expand, the increment of social financing will be similar year - on - year, and the social financing growth rate will slightly decline to about 7.4% by the end of 2026 [2]. - Pay attention to the coupon of 3 - 5Y capital bonds and seize the opportunity of long - bond trading. Since the second half of 2025, the bond market has often deviated from the fundamentals and is mainly driven by institutional behavior. It is expected that the wealth management scale will increase by more than 3 trillion yuan in 2026, and wealth management will significantly increase the allocation of credit bonds with a remaining maturity of less than 3 years and 5Y credit bonds. The decline in bank liability costs will support government bonds within 10Y. It is recommended to allocate 3 - 5Y capital bonds for coupons, trade long - bonds, and explore multi - asset opportunities [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Credit Situation - In December, due to weak credit demand, new loans were lower year - on - year. Personal loans decreased, and corporate loans increased. Personal short - term and long - term loans both decreased significantly year - on - year, while corporate short - term loans, long - term loans, and bill financing were used to boost credit scale. Credit demand may be weak in the long term due to factors such as fiscal policy and industry over - capacity [2]. M1 and M2 Situation - The new - caliber M1 growth rate at the end of December was 3.8%, down 1.1 percentage points from the end of last month, and it has been falling since September. The M1 growth rate rose from January to September due to factors such as the stock market recovery and a lower base, but it declined significantly in Q4 as the base returned to normal. The M2 growth rate at the end of December was 8.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the end of last month [2]. Social Financing Situation - The social financing increment in December was 2.21 trillion yuan, lower than 2.85 trillion yuan in December 2024. The shortfall mainly came from government bond net financing. The social financing growth rate at the end of December decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 8.3%. It is expected that the social financing growth rate will slightly decline to about 7.4% by the end of 2026 [2]. Bond Investment Suggestion - Since the second half of 2025, the bond market has been mainly influenced by institutional behavior. The growth of wealth management scale will support credit bonds within 3Y, and the decline in bank liability costs will support government bonds within 10Y. It is recommended to allocate 3 - 5Y capital bonds for coupons, trade long - bonds, and explore multi - asset opportunities. The yield of the active 30Y Treasury bond is expected to slowly return to about 2.2% in the first quarter [2].