Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its stable industrial control business and growth potential in energy storage and solid-state battery sectors [5][7]. Core Insights - The company's industrial control business is stabilizing, while its energy storage capacity expansion and solid-state battery layout are expected to drive performance growth [5][6]. - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a projected increase in operating income from 234 million RMB in 2023 to 5.08 billion RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 98.49% [5][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 46 million RMB in 2023 to 409 million RMB by 2027, with a notable increase in profitability metrics such as ROE [5][6]. Summary by Sections Industrial Wireless Remote Control Equipment and Energy Storage Business - The company reported a net profit of 48.09 million RMB for Q1-Q3 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 9% [6][15]. - The industrial wireless control equipment business includes the development, production, and sales of both the OHM and HBC brands, serving major clients like SANY Heavy Industry and XCMG [6][25]. - The energy storage business is expected to see significant growth, with revenue projected to reach 2.77 billion RMB in 2024, contributing over 54% to total revenue [6][54]. Growth Potential - The energy storage segment is anticipated to expand rapidly, with production capacity expected to exceed 10 GWh by 2026, driven by ongoing projects and increasing demand [6][50]. - The company has secured contracts worth 4.02 billion RMB for energy storage projects, indicating strong market demand and operational capacity [6][10]. Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 74 million RMB, 220 million RMB, and 409 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 52.8 to 9.6 [5][7]. - The company is positioned favorably against comparable firms, with a current average P/E of 73X for peers in the industry [7][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5][6] Core Views - The company plans to acquire 100% equity of Baiyinhua Coal Power at a transaction price of 11.15 billion yuan, which is expected to significantly enhance profitability [5] - The acquisition is projected to increase the company's net profit attributable to shareholders from 5.34 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.79 billion yuan, marking a growth of 1.45 billion yuan [5] - The integration of Baiyinhua Coal Power's coal, electricity, and aluminum businesses aligns with the company's existing "coal-electricity-aluminum" model, potentially expanding its operational scale [5] - The acquisition is expected to add approximately 2 billion yuan to the company's net profit in 2025, with further asset injections anticipated from the controlling shareholder [5][6] Financial Summary - As of November 26, 2025, the company's closing price is 26.47 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 59,334.45 million yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 25.18% [3] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 and 2025H1 are projected to be 2.38 yuan and 1.24 yuan respectively, with a slight dilution expected post-acquisition [5] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 are estimated at 31,960 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.04% [7] - The company's net profit for 2025 is projected to be 5,766 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 7.95% [7] - The company anticipates a dividend yield of 3.21% in 2024, increasing to 3.98% by 2027, indicating an attractive return for investors [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic floating - rate bond market has gone through three stages: initial development, scale expansion, and adjustment and transformation, with significant room for improvement in market scale and product structure [2][74]. - The US floating - rate bond market is relatively mature, mainly including TIPS and FRNs, with different issuance subjects and benchmark interest rates from the domestic market [17]. - The valuation of floating - rate bonds is complex, and their secondary - market liquidity is insufficient. Issuers and investors choose floating - rate bonds for different reasons, such as cost reduction and risk avoidance [2][38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Domestic Floating - Rate Bond Market Development - The domestic floating - rate bond market started in 1995 and has experienced three rounds of expansion. In 2025 (as of October 13), 103 floating - rate bonds were issued, with a scale of 293.57 billion yuan [2][5]. - As of October 13, 2025, the domestic floating - rate bond stock was 648.991 billion yuan, accounting for 0.34% of the total bond balance. Policy - bank bonds are the largest variety, and the top three benchmark - interest - rate types in terms of scale are DR007, 1 - year LPR, and 5 - year LPR [2][6]. - The remaining maturity of outstanding floating - rate bonds is highly concentrated in the 1 - 3 - year medium - and short - term varieties, with a balance - scale proportion of 79.01% [15]. 2. US Floating - Rate Bond Market - As of June 30, 2025, the US floating - rate bond (TIPs + FRNs) stock was approximately $3.39 trillion, accounting for 9.36% of the total US - dollar bond scale. The main products are TIPs and FRNs [17]. - TIPs are linked to the CPI, with a fixed coupon rate and a floating principal to resist inflation. As of June 30, 2025, the TIPs stock was approximately $1.73 trillion, accounting for 51.03% of floating - rate government bonds [17]. - FRNs are linked to the US benchmark interest rate, with a more diverse range of issuers. As of June 30, 2025, the FRNs stock was approximately $1.66 trillion, accounting for 48.97% of floating - rate government bonds [22]. 3. Floating - Rate Bond Valuation - The pricing of floating - rate bonds is driven by two factors: current benchmark - interest - rate changes triggering coupon resets and changes in market expectations of future interest rates. YTM may be "distorted" in analyzing floating - rate bonds [38]. - Quantitative valuation analysis of floating - rate bonds is subjective because future cash flows cannot be determined in advance and rely on forward - interest - rate forecasts. Current methods include the ChinaBond valuation method, forward - interest - rate prediction, and using comparable fixed - rate bonds for valuation [46]. 4. Secondary - Market Trading of Floating - Rate Bonds - With the decline of the interest - rate center, the trading activity of floating - rate bonds has decreased. Their liquidity is generally lower than that of fixed - rate bonds of the same period [52][55]. - The five floating - rate bonds with the best liquidity as of October 19, 2025, are 25 Guokai 14, 25 Nongfa Qingfa 09, 25 Nongfa 09, 24 Nongfa 09, and 25 Guokai Kechuang 01. Liquidity is better for bonds with a large stock scale, a remaining maturity of 1 - 3 years, and a recent issuance date [61]. 5. Reasons for Issuers and Investors to Choose Floating - Rate Bonds - For issuers, floating - rate bonds can reduce issuance costs in a declining or stable interest - rate environment, have a built - in risk - hedging function, and help broaden financing channels [64][65]. - For investors, floating - rate bonds are an effective tool to avoid interest - rate risks and achieve asset - liability matching. Investing in floating - rate bonds with a high repricing frequency can reduce the duration exposure of commercial - bank asset portfolios [70][71]. 6. Future Outlook for the Domestic Floating - Rate Bond Market - The domestic floating - rate bond market has significant room for improvement in market scale, product structure, and function. Local governments and enterprises can issue floating - rate bonds with the government - bond yield as the benchmark, and the central government can issue floating - rate bonds linked to inflation indicators [74][75]. - Banks' self - operation of floating - rate bonds can effectively alleviate interest - rate risks. To improve liquidity, multi - dimensional measures should be taken, such as expanding issuance scale, standardizing terms, and unifying quotation methods [74][75].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Since October, the net value of credit bond ETFs has significantly recovered compared to the end of September, with interest rates showing a downward trend. The net value of different types of credit bond ETFs, including science - innovation bond ETFs, benchmark - market - making credit bond ETFs, and others, has increased to varying degrees [2]. - There is a structural divergence in the trends of the circulating shares and market values of credit bond ETFs. Science - innovation bond ETFs have contributed the main scale increment, while the shares and market values of benchmark - market - making credit bond ETFs have been gradually declining since early September [2]. - The market has fully priced the underlying bonds of the second batch of science - innovation bond ETFs in advance. The yield decline of the underlying bonds of the CSI AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index may be similar to that of general credit bonds, and the subsequent market trends of credit bond ETFs' underlying bonds may be in line with general credit bonds [2]. - The discount of credit bond ETFs has significantly narrowed compared to the first half of October, and there may still be room for further recovery in the future, mainly due to factors such as the potential demand from amortized fixed - open bond funds, the impact of the new regulations on public fund redemption fees, the support from fixed - income wealth management products, and the expected decline in interest rates [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Net Value Performance - As of November 21, the average unit net value of science - innovation bond ETFs has increased by 0.63% compared to the end of September, and most of them have recovered above 100 yuan. The average unit net value of benchmark - market - making credit bond ETFs has increased by 0.67% and is above 100 yuan. The net values of the three credit bond ETFs listed before the beginning of 2025 have also recovered to different degrees [2]. Share and Market Value Trends - As of November 21, the total market value of benchmark - market - making credit bond ETFs is 119.7 billion yuan, with 1.187 billion circulating shares; the total market value of science - innovation bond ETFs is 253.6 billion yuan, with 2.534 billion circulating shares; the total market value of corporate bond spread factor ETFs, urban investment bond ETFs, and short - term financing ETFs is 126.4 billion yuan, an increase of 15.6 billion yuan compared to the end of September [2]. - The shares and market values of benchmark - market - making credit bond ETFs have been gradually declining since early September, while the total market value of science - innovation bond ETFs has rapidly climbed to over 250 billion yuan as of November 21, an increase of 125.1 billion yuan compared to September 23 [2]. Pricing of Underlying Bonds - Since the listing of the second batch of 14 science - innovation bond ETFs in late September, the yields of the underlying bonds of the CSI AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index have declined significantly. The decline in the yields of underlying bonds with different remaining maturities is in the range of 10 - 19BP, and the decline is not significantly different from that of general credit bonds [2]. Discount and Recovery Potential - As of November 21, the discount rate of benchmark - market - making credit bond ETFs is 0.25%, and that of science - innovation bond ETFs is only 0.03%, significantly narrowing compared to the first half of October. The discounts of corporate bond spread factor ETFs and urban investment bond ETFs have also returned to near zero [2][3]. - There are four main reasons for the potential further recovery of credit bond ETF discounts: the potential demand from amortized fixed - open bond funds, the impact of the new regulations on public fund redemption fees, the support from fixed - income wealth management products, and the expected decline in interest rates [3][4].

Group 1: Company Overview - The report covers Huabao New Energy (301327.SZ), a global leader in portable energy storage, which has been growing rapidly since its establishment in 2011, focusing on consumer-grade green energy solutions [2][5] - As of H1 2025, the company's business has expanded to over 50 mainstream countries and regions, with a CAGR of 38.9% in revenue and 47.3% in net profit from 2014 to 2024 [2][5] - The portable energy storage industry is expected to maintain double-digit growth from 2024 to 2029, with trends towards larger capacity, higher safety, and lightweight products [2][5] Group 2: Market Position and Product Development - The company has regained the top market share in key channels such as Amazon in the US and Japan for the period from January to October 2025, thanks to its lightweight and cost-effective new products [2][5] - New product categories like mobile home storage and balcony solar storage are expected to drive a second growth curve, with the global home energy storage market showing significant potential [6][7] - The balcony solar storage product, HomePower2000Ultra, has demonstrated advantages in high power, plug-and-play functionality, and cost-effectiveness, contributing to a 106.4% year-on-year revenue growth in Europe for the first half of 2025 [6][7] Group 3: Financial Projections - The projected net profits for Huabao New Energy from 2025 to 2027 are 230 million, 500 million, and 790 million CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of -3.8%, +117.7%, and +57.2% respectively [7] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios corresponding to these profits are expected to be 43, 20, and 12 times [7] Group 4: Company Overview of Ruihua Technology - Ruihua Technology (920099.BJ) is recognized as a "small giant" in chemical process package technology, focusing on the domestic replacement of imported equipment [8][9] - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 555 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40.74% [9][10] - The domestic production of styrene is expected to grow from 15.64 million tons in 2023 to 19.70 million tons by 2028, with a CAGR of 3.75% from 2024 to 2028 [8][9] Group 5: Competitive Advantages and Future Outlook - Ruihua Technology has successfully delivered overseas clients with styrene process packages and equipment, showcasing its core competitive advantage in self-developed complete technology [10][11] - The company has a solid patent portfolio with 72 authorized patents as of June 30, 2025, and is focusing on continuous innovation in its core technologies [10][11] - Future growth is anticipated as the company expands its overseas market presence and continues to innovate in technology and service offerings [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in the market [5][10][44]. Core Insights - The company is a global leader in portable energy storage and is expected to become a supplier of green energy solutions for households. Established in 2011, it has expanded its business into portable storage, balcony solar storage, and mobile home storage, covering over 50 countries as of mid-2025. The company's revenue and net profit have shown impressive compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 38.9% and 47.3% from 2014 to 2024, respectively [5][16][44]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The portable energy storage industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the company benefiting from significant advantages in lightweight new products. The global market for portable energy storage is expected to maintain double-digit growth from 2024 to 2029, driven by trends towards larger capacity, higher safety, and lightweight products. The company regained the top market share in key channels like Amazon in the U.S. and Japan during the first ten months of 2025 [6][20][28]. New Product Categories - The company is entering new growth curves with mobile home storage and balcony solar storage. The global household energy storage market has substantial growth potential, with an expected installation capacity of 18.6 GWh in 2024. The company has launched innovative products like the Jackery Solar Generator 5000 Plus and the second-generation DIY balcony solar storage system, which have shown significant revenue growth in Europe [7][35][36]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 230 million, 502 million, and 789 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -3.8%, +117.7%, and +57.2%. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are expected to be 43, 20, and 12 for the same years. The company is compared with peers like Deye, Jinlang Technology, and Goodwe, indicating a solid foundation in portable energy storage and promising new product launches [8][10][44].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3][4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing housing prices for facilitating economic circulation, with expectations for further policy support. High-quality residential properties are anticipated to experience a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure. Additionally, the sentiment in the Hong Kong private residential market is gradually recovering, suggesting a new round of value reassessment for Hong Kong developers [4][45]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 5.1%, the ChiNext Index by 6.2%, and the CSI 300 Index by 3.8%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) declined by 5.8%. Notable stock performances included ST Zhongdi (+18.8%) and Shijie Lianhang (+12.5%), while Rongsheng Development (-16.9%) and Xinhua Lian (-15.2%) saw significant declines [4][7]. Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of November 15-21, 185,000 square meters of new homes were sold across 42 key cities, a 6.5% increase from the previous week but a 40.1% decrease year-on-year. For November (up to the 21st), total new home sales reached 514,000 square meters, a 4.6% increase month-on-month but a 41.7% decrease year-on-year [12][16]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, 200,000 square meters of second-hand homes were sold across 21 key cities, a 1.2% decrease from the previous week and a 14.3% decrease year-on-year. For November (up to the 21st), total second-hand home sales reached 594,000 square meters, a 41.6% increase month-on-month but a 20.2% decrease year-on-year [28][33]. Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held a national meeting to promote urban renewal, emphasizing its role in high-quality urban development. The Ministry also highlighted the need for systematic advancement of the "Four Goods" construction: good houses, good communities, good neighborhoods, and good cities. Additionally, the Ministry of Finance allocated 56.6 billion yuan for urban housing security projects for 2026 to improve livelihoods and stabilize the economy [45][46]. Company Announcements - China Merchants Shekou issued 5.04 billion yuan in corporate bonds, while China Resources Land successfully issued two notes totaling 3 billion USD and 4.3 billion yuan. China Jinmao's subsidiary plans to sell its 100% stake in Jinmao (Sanya) Tourism for asset securitization purposes [48][49].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3][4] Core Viewpoints - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to strengthen real estate policy expectations, enhancing the cost-performance ratio of the industrial chain. The recent pullback in the technology sector coincides with increased expectations for real estate policies, leading to a rise in the cost-performance ratio of the industrial chain. The cement sector is anticipated to benefit not only from demand-side logic but also from a reduction in overcapacity, with clinker capacity potentially decreasing to 1.6 billion tons, resulting in a capacity utilization rate of approximately 75% [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of low-valuation stocks and the advantages of chip structure, recommending Global New Materials International (H-share) as a key investment opportunity. The pearlescent pigment industry is highlighted for its high growth potential and low price sensitivity, making it a rare "strong consumer attribute" sector [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Tracking - The construction materials index (Shenwan) decreased by 5.7%, with sub-sectors such as cement, glass fiber, and renovation materials indices falling by 5.6%, 8.6%, and 4.1% respectively. Notable stock performances include Jin Yuan Co. (+13.5%) and Fujian Cement (-21.5%) [8] 2. Data Tracking 2.1 Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement nationwide is 350.8 RMB/ton, down 1.5 RMB/ton month-on-month and down 77.7 RMB/ton year-on-year. The national cement inventory ratio is 69.2%, with a shipment rate of 46.1% [15][15][15] 2.2 Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1195.4 RMB/ton, down 42.1 RMB/ton month-on-month and down 387.2 RMB/ton year-on-year. The total inventory of key production enterprises in 13 provinces is 5,962 million heavy boxes, down 0.9% month-on-month and up 44.0% year-on-year [33][33] 2.3 Photovoltaic Glass - The average price for 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 13.0 RMB/sqm, unchanged month-on-month and up 1.4 RMB/sqm year-on-year. The total number of production lines for photovoltaic glass is 406, with a daily melting capacity of 88,590 tons [38][39] 2.4 Glass Fiber - The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn is 4565.0 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month and down 20.0 RMB/ton year-on-year. The average price of electronic yarn is 9250.0 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month and up 250.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [44][44] 2.5 Carbon Fiber - The average price of large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 RMB/kg, unchanged month-on-month, while small tow carbon fiber is priced at 95.0 RMB/kg, unchanged month-on-month and down 2.5 RMB/kg year-on-year. The average operating rate of carbon fiber enterprises is 63.02%, unchanged month-on-month and up 11.42 percentage points year-on-year [48][48]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction decoration industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The overall market has weakened, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.9% and the ChiNext Index down 6.15%. This adjustment is likely influenced by multiple factors, including delayed expectations for US interest rate cuts, increased volatility in US stocks, and rising geopolitical uncertainties. As the year-end approaches, a "high-cut low" tendency may emerge in the market, where technology sectors may see profit-taking while the construction sector, with its counter-cyclical attributes and low valuations, becomes more attractive for allocation [3][10] - The report suggests focusing on construction companies with stable dividends and low valuations, regional construction firms with project advantages, and companies in the decoration sector that may benefit from policy improvements [4][11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.90%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 5.13%, and the ChiNext Index fell 6.15%. The construction decoration index dropped 6.11%, with all sub-sectors declining. Among individual stocks, 8 stocks in the construction sector rose, with the top five performers being Zhengzhong Design (+14.14%), Shanghai Port (+11.83%), and others [5][16] Infrastructure Data Tracking - Special bonds issued this week amounted to 1176.39 billion, with a cumulative issuance of 72,311.75 billion, up 25.14% year-on-year. City investment bonds issued this week totaled 618.90 billion, with a net financing amount of 129.13 billion, resulting in a cumulative net financing amount of -5,407.40 billion [6][20][21] Company Dynamics - Notable new contracts signed by major companies include China Power Construction with new orders of 9579.79 billion, China Nuclear Engineering with new contracts of 1238.40 billion, and China Chemical with new orders of 3126.70 billion. Other companies also reported significant contract wins [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Report's Core View - In October, broad funds significantly increased their holdings of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs). The total bond custody scale increased by 1.31 trillion yuan month-on-month to 176.8 trillion yuan, with NCD custody scale up 7214 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly driven by broad funds. [2][10][77] - There is uncertainty about the Fed's rate cut in December. The US added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, higher than market expectations. The 9 - month non - farm data may be more accurate, and the unemployment rate was 4.4%. As of November 23 noon Beijing time, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December is 71%. [2][23][77] - The current bond market has prominent allocation value, with bond yields likely to decline in a volatile manner. The report is bullish on the bond market, predicting that the 10Y Treasury yield will return to around 1.65% this year. [4][78] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News - In October, the total bond custody scale increased by 1.31 trillion yuan month - on - month to 176.8 trillion yuan, with the increase mainly from Shanghai Clearing House. NCDs were the main driver of the increase, with broad funds as the major buyers. [10] - On November 21, the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China announced that savings bonds (electronic) will be included in the scope of personal pension products starting from June 2026. [23] 2. Medium - term High - frequency Data 2.1 Consumption - As of November 16, the daily average retail volume of passenger car manufacturers decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, and the daily average wholesale volume decreased by 5.4% year - on - year. As of November 21, the 7 - day national movie box office revenue increased by 74.8% year - on - year. As of November 7, the total retail volume of three major household appliances decreased by 21.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales decreased by 34.6% year - on - year. [25][30] 2.2 Transportation - Affected by Double 11, freight activity remained high. As of November 16, the weekly port container throughput increased by 3.1% year - on - year. As of November 21, the 7 - day average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities increased by 5.4% year - on - year. The weekly postal express pick - up volume increased by 8.9% year - on - year, and the delivery volume increased by 5.8% year - on - year. The weekly railway freight volume and highway truck traffic volume increased by 5.3% year - on - year. [32][36] 2.3 Industrial Operating Rates - As of November 19, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises increased by 0.5 percentage points year - on - year. As of November 20, the average asphalt operating rate decreased by 5.0 percentage points year - on - year. The soda ash operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points year - on - year, and the PVC operating rate increased by 1.4 percentage points year - on - year. [38][43] 2.4 Real Estate - As of November 21, the 7 - day total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 16.2% year - on - year. As of November 16, the number of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 41.3% year - on - year. [46][49] 2.5 Prices - As of November 21, most prices recovered month - on - month. The average pork wholesale price decreased by 24.4% year - on - year but increased by 1.3% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average price of northern port thermal coal decreased by 0.7% year - on - year but increased by 11.9% compared to 4 weeks ago. [50] 3. Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On November 21, short - term rates mostly declined. Treasury yields mostly increased, with the 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year Treasury yields at 1.40%/1.59%/1.82%/2.16% respectively, up 0.9BP/0.2BP/1.0BP compared to November 14 (except for the 1 - year, which decreased by 0.5BP). The US, Japanese, British, and German 10 - year Treasury yields were 4.06%, 1.78%, 4.55%, and 2.76% respectively, down 8BP/up 8BP/down 2BP/down 3BP compared to November 14. The US dollar - RMB central parity rate and spot exchange rate increased by 50/96 pips compared to November 14. [58][60][69] 4. Institutional Behavior - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest - rate bonds has shown a trend of first declining, then rising, and then declining. As of November 21, the estimated average duration was about 4.9 years, and the median was about 4.4 years, down 0.02/up 0.18 years compared to November 14. The duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for credit bonds has shown a volatile trend, and has declined this week. The estimated average duration was about 2.1 years, and the median was about 2.0 years, down 0.07 years compared to November 14. [73][74] 5. Investment Suggestions - The report is bullish on the bond market. Due to domestic economic pressure, falling housing prices, and high short - term interest rates, there is a significant need to cut policy rates. With the Fed's rate - cut cycle, policy rates may be cut by 20BP in the next six months. The report predicts that the 10Y Treasury yield will return to around 1.65% this year, the 30Y Treasury yield to 1.9%, and the 5Y secondary capital bonds of large banks to 1.9%. [4][78]