1. Report industry investment rating - This report does not provide an investment rating for the industry [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The secondary market discount may lead to a temporary increase in the cost - effectiveness of credit bond ETFs. If the trading sentiment recovers in the future and the ETF premium - discount rate reverts to the central level, it may drive the ETF price to recover. It is recommended to moderately focus on the temporary trading opportunities brought by credit bond ETFs entering the discount range [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Credit bond ETF performance - From July 21 to July 25, affected by the strong performance of the equity and commodity markets, the benchmark - made credit bond ETFs and science - innovation bond ETFs were under pressure. The net worth and closing prices of 8 benchmark - made credit bond ETFs and 10 science - innovation bond ETFs declined for 4 consecutive days from July 21 to July 24 and showed differentiation on July 25. As of July 25, 2025, the closing prices of 10 science - innovation bond ETFs fell below 100 yuan, with cumulative declines ranging from 0.28% to 0.57% since listing; the closing prices of 8 benchmark - made credit bond ETFs also fell below 101 yuan, with declines ranging from 0.45% to 0.66% from July 17 to July 25. On July 28, the net worth of both types of ETFs recovered slightly [5] - Since the listing of science - innovation bond ETFs on July 17, the net capital inflow has rapidly declined. From July 23 to July 25, the benchmark - made credit bond ETFs saw a large - scale capital outflow. On July 24, the single - day net outflow of benchmark - made credit bond ETFs reached 2.52 billion yuan, the largest since the beginning of this year. More than half of the science - innovation bond ETFs had a small net capital outflow on July 24, just one week after listing [4][6] 3.2 How to view the discount trading opportunities of credit bond ETFs - Credit bond ETFs can be traded in the secondary market. Currently, 8 benchmark - made credit bond ETFs use physical subscription and redemption methods, and only 3 out of 10 science - innovation bond ETFs use cash subscription and redemption methods [12] - In the physical subscription and redemption model, investors are more likely to sell credit bond ETFs in the secondary market during market adjustments, which may lead to short - term discounts. After a short - term discount occurs, there are two possible directions: the market continues to adjust and the discount deepens, or the premium - discount rate reverts to the central level due to arbitrage activities [13] - Regarding the influencing factors, from July 17 to July 25, the valuation adjustments of the underlying component bonds of benchmark - made credit bond ETFs and science - innovation bond ETFs were not significantly different from those of non - component bonds, and no additional factors causing excessive valuation adjustments were observed [14] - From July 21 to July 25, the discount of benchmark - made credit bond ETFs deepened, and science - innovation bond ETFs gradually turned to a discount state. As of July 24, the discount of 8 credit bond ETFs ranged from 25 to 47 BP, significantly higher than the historical average; as of July 25, the discount of science - innovation bond ETFs ranged from 8 to 25 BP [17][18] - Although both types of ETFs are in the discount range, the trading sentiment may recover in the future, pulling the premium - discount rate back to the central level. The discount may bring a temporary increase in cost - effectiveness, and it is recommended to pay attention to the trading opportunities [19]

Fixed Income - The bank wealth management market's existing scale reached 30.67 trillion yuan as of H1 2025, an increase of 0.72 trillion yuan compared to the end of 2024, surpassing the average change of -0.13 trillion yuan from H1 2021 to H1 2024 [2][7][8] - The average annualized yield of wealth management products weakened in H1 2025, with an average yield of 2.12%, down 0.53 percentage points from the entire year of 2024 [9][10] - The market is expected to stabilize above 30 trillion yuan in H2 2025, with a focus on long-term municipal investment bonds and capital bonds [10] New Consumption - Maternal and Infant Industry - The implementation of the childcare subsidy policy is expected to stimulate the maternal and infant industry, with the market size projected to reach 76,299 billion yuan in 2024 and 89,149 billion yuan by 2027 [12][13] - The birth population in China is expected to increase to 9.54 million in 2024, marking a rise of 520,000 from 2023, the first increase since 2017 [13] - The policy aims to alleviate family burdens and enhance birth rates, benefiting sectors such as dairy products, education and training, and infant care [13] New Consumption - Investment Opportunities - The high-end beauty sector is expected to grow faster than the mass market, with projected CAGR of 9.6% for skincare and 10.8% for makeup from 2023 to 2028 [14][15] - The ancient gold market shows strong growth potential, with a CAGR of 21.8% expected from 2023 to 2028 [15][16] - The current beverage market is seeing a rise in ready-to-drink products, with the market size for ready-to-drink beverages reaching 5,175 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 36.3% of the beverage market [16][17] Medical Devices - Kaili Medical - Kaili Medical is positioned as a leader in ultrasound and endoscopy equipment, with new product launches expected to enhance market penetration [19][20] - The company has expanded its workforce significantly, preparing for a recovery in the medical device sector, with procurement activities showing signs of normalization [20][21] - Revenue forecasts for Kaili Medical indicate a growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 2.388 billion yuan in 2025, growing to 3.224 billion yuan by 2027 [21] Transportation - YTO Express - YTO Express reported a revenue of 5.53 billion yuan in June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, with a business volume growth of 19.34% [23][24] - The express delivery market is experiencing structural growth, with YTO's business volume growth outpacing overall market growth [24][25] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve profitability in the express delivery sector, with YTO's net profit per ticket projected to increase significantly [25][26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain a leading growth rate in parcel volume, with the potential for improved profitability due to anti-competitive measures [5][6] - The report highlights that the company's revenue and profit forecasts show a positive trend, with significant growth expected in the coming years [5][6] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023: 57,684 million RMB - 2024: 69,033 million RMB (19.67% YoY growth) - 2025E: 79,932 million RMB (15.79% YoY growth) - 2026E: 91,782 million RMB (14.83% YoY growth) - 2027E: 103,561 million RMB (12.83% YoY growth) [5][7] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2023: 3,723 million RMB - 2024: 4,012 million RMB (7.78% YoY growth) - 2025E: 4,074 million RMB (1.54% YoY growth) - 2026E: 5,081 million RMB (24.72% YoY growth) - 2027E: 6,047 million RMB (19.01% YoY growth) [5][7] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 1.09 RMB - 2024: 1.17 RMB - 2025E: 1.19 RMB - 2026E: 1.49 RMB - 2027E: 1.77 RMB [5][7] - **Valuation Metrics**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are projected at 12.59, 10.10, and 8.48 respectively [5][8] Market Performance - As of July 29, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is 15.00 RMB, with a total market capitalization of 51,303.39 million RMB [3][4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The scale of wealth management products has returned to 30 trillion yuan, and it is expected to remain stable above 30 trillion in the second half of 2025. The scale of hybrid products is expected to continue to rise. [2] - The number and scale of wealth management products of bank institutions have decreased significantly, and the market is concentrating towards wealth management companies. It is expected that by the end of 2026, the wealth management market will continue to shift to wealth management companies. [2] - In the first half of 2025, wealth management products increased their allocation of public - offering funds and reduced their allocation of bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit. The proportion of public - offering funds may continue to increase in the second half of the year. [2] - In the low - interest - rate era, the average yield of wealth management products has weakened, and the performance comparison benchmark of newly issued products of wealth management companies has continued to decline. [2] - The bond market may not have a trending market in the second half of 2025. It is recommended to focus on certain types of bonds and conduct interval trading. [2] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Wealth Management Product Scale - As of H1 2025, the scale of the bank wealth management market was 30.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.72 trillion yuan compared to the end of 2024. The scale of cash - management products was 6.4 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.9 trillion yuan compared to the end of 2024, and the proportion dropped from 24.4% to 20.87%. The scales of fixed - income (excluding cash), hybrid, and equity wealth management products were 23.4 trillion, 0.8 trillion, and 0.1 trillion yuan respectively, with proportions of 76.3%, 2.5%, and 0.2% respectively, increasing by 3.38 pct, 0.07 pct, and 0.02 pct respectively compared to the end of 2024. [2] - It is expected that the scale of wealth management products in the second half of 2025 may remain stable above 30 trillion yuan. [2] 3.2 Market Concentration - By the end of H1 2025, there were 226 wealth management institutions in the market, including 194 bank institutions and 32 wealth management companies, a decrease of 24 and an increase of 1 (Zheshang Bank Wealth Management) compared to the end of the previous year respectively. [2] - In terms of the number of products in existence, there were 13,900 products of bank institutions and 27,900 products of wealth management companies, a decrease of 2,100 and an increase of 3,600 respectively compared to the end of the previous year. [2] - In terms of the scale of products in existence, the scales of bank institutions and wealth management companies were 3.19 trillion and 27.48 trillion yuan respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 24.0% and + 13.0%. [2] 3.3 Asset Allocation - From the end of 2024 to H1 2025, the scales of bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased from 13.03 trillion and 4.31 trillion yuan to 12.82 trillion and 4.23 trillion yuan respectively. The allocation ratio of interest - rate bonds increased from 2.33% to 3.01%, and the scale reached 0.99 trillion yuan in H1 2025. The allocation ratio of credit bonds decreased from 41.11% to 38.79%, and the scale reached 12.79 trillion yuan in H1 2025. The allocation of public - offering funds increased significantly by 0.42 trillion yuan (the proportion in H1 2025 was 4.2%, an increase of 1.3 pct compared to the end of 2024) to 1.29 trillion yuan. [2] - The proportions of cash and bank deposits and non - standard debt assets in H1 2025 were 24.8% and 5.5% respectively, an increase of 0.9 pct and 0.1 pct respectively compared to the end of 2024. [2] 3.4 Product Yield - The annualized yield of wealth management products has been declining since H1 2023. In the first half of 2025, the average annualized yield of wealth management products was 2.12%, a decrease of 0.53 pct compared to the full - year yield in 2024. [2] - According to Puyi Standard, the performance comparison benchmark of newly issued products of wealth management companies has continued to decline, from 3.21% in Q1 2024 to 2.56% in Q2 2025, and it is expected that the lower limit of the benchmark may reach 2.0%. [2] 3.5 Bond Market Outlook - The report is bullish on the bond market in the short term, expecting the 10 - year Treasury bond yield to return to around 1.65%. After the adjustment, it is recommended to focus on certain types of bonds such as urban investment bonds, capital bonds, and insurance subordinated bonds. [2] - It is predicted that the 10 - year Treasury bond yield will fluctuate in the range of 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year, and there may not be a trending market. The possibility of a significant bear market in the bond market is low, and it is also difficult for the bond market to have a significant bull market. It is recommended to conduct interval trading. [2]

证券研究报告 医药生物 | 医疗器械 非金融|公司专题报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 30 日 证券分析师 刘闯 SAC：S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 林海霖 SAC：S1350524050002 linhailin@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 07 | | 日 | 月 29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | 32.04 | | | | 一 年 内 最 高 / 最 低 | | | | | | | | （元） | | | | 43.06/25.04 | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | 13,864.11 | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | 13,864.11 | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | 432.71 | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | 21.81 | | | | 每股净资产（元/股） | | | | 7.22 | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating, highlighting the favorable momentum in new consumption sectors, particularly in beauty care, gold, trendy toys, and freshly brewed tea drinks [4]. Core Insights - The new consumption landscape reflects the evolving consumer preferences of the younger generation, emphasizing the importance of understanding these narratives for capturing growth opportunities in new consumption companies [80]. Beauty Care Sector - The high-end beauty segment is expected to grow faster than the mass market, with projected CAGR for high-end skincare and makeup at 9.6% and 10.8% respectively from 2023 to 2028, compared to 8.2% and 6.7% for mass-market products [5][9]. - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with the national beauty market share reaching 50.4% in 2023, surpassing foreign brands [15][18]. Gold Jewelry Sector - The gold jewelry market in China is projected to grow from 820 billion yuan in 2023 to 1,140 billion yuan by 2028, with a CAGR of 6.8% [19]. - The ancient gold segment shows strong growth potential, with a CAGR of 21.8% expected from 2023 to 2028, despite a slowdown in growth rates [24][25]. Trendy Toys Sector - The trendy toy market in China reached 626 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 31.24% from 2019 to 2023, indicating rapid growth [40]. - The market concentration is increasing, with the top five companies' market share rising from 22.8% in 2019 to 26.4% in 2021 [46]. Freshly Brewed Tea Drinks Sector - The freshly brewed tea drink market in China was valued at 517.5 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 36.3% of the beverage market, with expectations to reach 1,163.4 billion yuan by 2028 [67]. - The market for freshly brewed tea drinks is anticipated to maintain its position as the largest segment within the freshly brewed beverage category, with a projected CAGR of 17.3% from 2023 to 2028 [71][75].

Fixed Income - The bond market is under pressure from three main factors: rising industrial commodity prices due to "anti-involution" sentiment, a bullish stock market diverting funds away from bonds, and marginal improvements in economic indicators increasing market risk appetite [2][7][10] - As of July 25, 2025, the yields on various bonds, including government and corporate bonds, have risen significantly, indicating a market adjustment [2][7] - The report suggests a short-term bullish outlook for the bond market, with a potential return of the 10-year government bond yield to around 1.65% [10] Non-Banking Financials - The insurance industry is adjusting the maximum preset interest rates for life insurance products, with the new maximum for ordinary life insurance set at 2.0% and for participating insurance at 1.75% [12][13] - This adjustment is expected to lower the liability costs for insurance companies and encourage a shift towards participating insurance products, which have floating interest characteristics [13] - The report recommends companies like China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, which have favorable asset-liability duration matching [13] Transportation - The express delivery industry is experiencing a shift towards value reassessment due to the "anti-involution" trend, which aims to protect the rights of delivery personnel and promote price increases across the industry [15][16] - The report highlights the potential for price improvements in the short term, especially in regions where delivery companies are currently facing losses [17] - Long-term prospects suggest a transition from price wars to value competition, which could enhance the performance of express delivery companies [17] Pharmaceuticals - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical has entered a significant partnership with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) for the global licensing of its innovative drug HRS-9821, with potential milestone payments totaling approximately $12 billion [19][20] - The company is expected to see substantial revenue growth driven by its innovative drug pipeline, with projected net profits increasing significantly over the next few years [21][22] - The collaboration with GSK is anticipated to enhance Heng Rui's valuation and market presence, particularly in the respiratory field [20][21] New Consumption - Lao Pu Gold has projected impressive sales growth for the first half of 2025, with expected revenues between RMB 138 billion and 143 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 240% to 252% [24][25] - The company's brand influence and product optimization are key drivers of this growth, positioning it well in the high-end ancient gold market [25][26] - The ancient gold sector is expected to see strong growth, with a projected market size of RMB 2.193 trillion by 2024 and a compound annual growth rate of 21.8% from 2023 to 2028 [25][26]

Market Overview - The global amino acid market is projected to grow from $26.19 billion in 2021 to $49.42 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 7.3%[2] - In 2023, China's amino acid market reached ¥43.635 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.2%[2] - In 2020, China accounted for 32.23% of the global amino acid market, leading the world[2] Industry Dynamics - China's amino acid production is dominated by glutamic acid (42.06%) and lysine (36.80%) as of 2020[19] - The domestic amino acid industry has a complete supply chain, with applications in animal feed, food additives, pharmaceuticals, and fine chemicals[6] - The demand for high-value-added amino acids is increasing, with products like phenylalanine and isoleucine gaining traction[2] Company Spotlight - Wuxi Jinghai is recognized as a "little giant" in amino acid raw materials, focusing on branched-chain amino acids and other products[26] - In 2024, Wuxi Jinghai's revenue from amino acid raw materials is expected to constitute 57% of its total revenue[30] - The company has obtained a food production license, allowing it to expand its amino acid applications in the food sector[29] Market Performance - From July 21 to July 25, 2025, the median market cap change for North Exchange consumer service stocks was +1.68%, with 70% of companies experiencing an increase[37] - The median P/E ratio for North Exchange consumer service companies decreased from 58.6X to 57.1X during the same period[39] Investment and Expansion - Companies like Baixinglong are establishing subsidiaries in Italy and Hong Kong to enhance their international market presence[56] - The global raw material drug market is expected to reach $226.1 billion in 2024, growing at a rate of 5.3%[27]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that since September 2024, the central government's clear requirement has been to "stabilize the real estate market and stock market," indicating that the stabilization of the real estate market is crucial for boosting social expectations and facilitating domestic demand circulation [5][48] - The report suggests that high-quality residential properties may experience a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [5] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.3%, the ChiNext Index by 2.8%, and the CSI 300 Index by 1.7%, while the real estate sector (Shenwan) increased by 4.1% [5][8] - The top five stocks in terms of price increase were *ST Nan Zhi (+15.4%), Hainan Airport (+14.5%), Zhangjiang Hi-Tech (+12.4%), Tibet City Investment (+11.8%), and Dayuecheng (+10.6%) [5] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - For the week of July 19-25, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 1.69 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 19.4% [15] - In July (up to the week of July 25), new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 5.77 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 28.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.9% [19] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - For the week of July 19-25, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 1.95 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 1.8% [31] - In July (up to the week of July 25), second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 6.96 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 3.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.5% [35] Industry News - The State Council announced the "Housing Rental Regulations," marking a new phase of legalization and standardization in the housing rental market [48] - The People's Bank of China reported a year-on-year increase of 0.3% in real estate development loans, indicating a recovery in growth [48] - The Ministry of Finance reported that the revenue from state-owned land transfers in the first half of 2025 was 1.43 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5% [48] Company Announcements - China Merchants Shekou issued the first phase of corporate bonds worth 800 million yuan with an interest rate of 1.70% for a term of 3 years [51] - China Jinmao issued the first phase of unsecured medium-term notes worth 2 billion yuan with an interest rate of 2.30% for a term of 3 years [51] - Binhai Group acquired the land use rights for a state-owned construction site in Hangzhou, covering an area of 36,496 square meters with a total price of 1.53 billion yuan [51]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) due to expected performance release from the recent BD transaction [5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company has entered into a collaboration agreement with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) for the innovative drug HRS-9821, which is expected to enhance the company's revenue potential significantly [7]. - The company is undergoing a transformation towards innovation, with projected revenue and net profit growth rates of 22.63% and 47.28% respectively for 2024, indicating a strong upward trend in performance [7]. - The collaboration with GSK is expected to maximize the overseas value of the PDE3/4 inhibitor and opens up potential for further projects, enhancing the company's research and development capabilities [7]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 22,820 million RMB - 2024: 27,985 million RMB (22.63% YoY growth) - 2025E: 34,074 million RMB (21.76% YoY growth) - 2026E: 40,899 million RMB (20.03% YoY growth) - 2027E: 49,373 million RMB (20.72% YoY growth) [6] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 4,302 million RMB - 2024: 6,337 million RMB (47.28% YoY growth) - 2025E: 9,431 million RMB (48.84% YoY growth) - 2026E: 11,331 million RMB (20.14% YoY growth) - 2027E: 13,693 million RMB (20.85% YoY growth) [6] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for the upcoming years are: - 2024: 0.95 RMB - 2025E: 1.42 RMB - 2026E: 1.71 RMB - 2027E: 2.06 RMB [6]. Summary of Financial Data - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 411,771.88 million RMB, with a total share capital of 6,637.20 million shares [3]. - The asset-liability ratio stands at 7.30%, indicating a strong financial position [3]. - The net asset value per share is 7.37 RMB, reflecting solid equity backing [3].