证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 14 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年12月12日 华源晨会精粹 20251214 固定收益 中央经济工作会议的几个债市信号——12 月中央经济工作会议点评： 25Q3 以来，看空债市的较多，长债显著调整，超长债期限利差明显走阔。本次中央 经济工作会议明确提出，"继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准降息 等多种政策工具，"这说明当前仍处于降准降息的大周期中。2026 年政府债券净融 资规模或小幅扩大。中央经济工作会议提出，"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模 和支出总量，加强财政科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政 策。"这说明 2026 年赤字率可能维持在 4%左右，政府债券净发行规模可能保持相 对稳定，不会明显扩张，不会加剧政府债券的供给压力。我们预计 2026 年政府债券 净融资规模 14.5 万亿左右，同比小幅增加。"积极有序化解地方政府债务风险，督 促各地主动化债，不得违规新增隐性债务。"我们认为，化债之下，城投融资需求 依然将偏弱，信贷需求或持续偏弱。社融增速的重要性或下降。本次 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media and internet industry [4] Core Views - Disney's investment of $1 billion in OpenAI and its partnership with Sora for content licensing is seen as a significant move that may lead to new business models and enhance IP value [5] - The film and television sectors are expected to see steady growth, driven by strong performances from quality imported films and new policies promoting content creation [5] - The AI application sector is witnessing advancements, particularly in content generation, which could accelerate the elevation of IP content [6] - The internet sector is experiencing competitive dynamics, with major companies adapting their strategies to leverage AI technologies [8] - The gaming industry is showing robust performance, with top titles maintaining strong user engagement and revenue potential [9] Summary by Sections Media Sector - Disney's collaboration with OpenAI is expected to standardize AI content copyright usage and create new revenue streams [5] - The film market is projected to grow, with notable films like "Zootopia 2" and "Avatar 3" performing well in China [5] - Recommendations include focusing on quality IP companies and film distribution firms [5] AI Applications - The release of Nano Banana Pro indicates significant improvements in AI capabilities, which may enhance content production [6] - Companies involved in IP rights and industrialized content production are recommended for investment [6] Internet Sector - The launch of the Doubao mobile assistant highlights the ongoing evolution of AI technologies in the internet space [8] - Major internet companies are expected to continue adjusting their strategies to maintain competitive advantages [8] Gaming Sector - The gaming industry is seeing high engagement with major titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Delta Force" leading the market [9] - Investment opportunities are identified in companies exploring AI integration in gaming [9] New Business Models - The rise of group broadcasting is transforming the industry from reliance on individual charisma to systematic growth [10] - Companies directly involved in group broadcasting and those benefiting from its growth are highlighted as potential investment targets [10] Publishing and State-Owned Media - State-owned publishing companies are exploring new business models and enhancing dividend sustainability [11] - The report suggests monitoring the merger and acquisition activities of state-owned media companies [11] Market Overview - The media sector showed a slight increase of 0.26% in the week from December 8 to December 12, ranking 8th among all industries [15] - The report notes significant movements in stock prices of various media companies, with notable gainers and losers identified [16][20]

证券研究报告 医药生物 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 14 日 刘闯 SAC：S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 林海霖 SAC：S1350524050002 linhailin@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 掘金百亿胶原蛋白市场，建议关注佰仁医疗 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——医药行业周报（25/12/8-25/12/12） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 联系人 本周医药市场表现分析：12 月 08 日至 12 月 12 日，医药指数下跌 1.04%，相对沪深 300 指 数超额收益为-0.96%。近期创新药持续横盘震荡，局部领域较为活跃如小核酸板块，12 月份 行业基本面整体相对平稳、个股催化事件为主。展望 2026 年上半年，创新药催化剂较多，且 板块调整充分，有望迎来一波β。当前位置，我们建议精选创新药核心资产，看好未来股价 走出新高度，同时建议配置业绩趋势明确和 26 年经营有望反转的个股。1）创新药重点关注， A 股）信立泰、泽璟制药、热景生物、科伦药业、上海谊众 ...

证券研究报告 贵金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 14 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 方皓 SAC：S1350525110003 fanghao@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 降息交易进行时，贵金属上行动能充足 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——贵金属双周报（2025/12/01-2025/12/14） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 贵金属板块：黄金白银价格强势上涨。近两周，伦敦现货黄金上涨 3.72%至 4346.95 美元/盎司，上期所黄金上涨 1.75%至 970.66 元/克，沪金持仓量上涨 2.61%至 34.86 万手；伦敦现货白银上涨 ...

证券研究报告 轻工制造 | 包装印刷 北交所|新股申购 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 14 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 王宇璇 SAC：S1350525050003 wangyuxuan@huayuanstock.com 江天科技(920121.BJ) ——聚焦于中高端消费品品牌标签，在食饮、日化等细分领域排名前列 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 发行价格 21.21 元/股，发行市盈率 13.76X，申购日为 2025 年 12 月 16 日。江天科 技本次发行价格 21.21 元/股，发行市盈率 13.76X，申购日为 2025 年 12 月 16 日。 本次公开发行股份数量 13,213,637 股，发行后总股本为 66,068,183 股，发行数量 占发行后总股本的 20%，不采用超额配售选择权。经我们测算，公司发行后预计可 流通股本比例为 20%，老股占可流通股本比例为 0%。本次发行战略配售发行数量为 1,321,363 股，占本次发行总股数的 10%，有 3 家机 ...

证券研究报告 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 陈轩 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 有色金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 14 日 美联储如期降息 25BP，铜价上行 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（2025/12/8-2025/12/12） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 铜 ： 美 联 储 如 期 降 息 25BP ， 铜 价 上 行 。 本 周 伦 铜 / 沪 铜 / 美 铜 涨 跌 幅 分 别 为 +1.54%/+1.40%/-1.75%。宏观方面，美联储 12 月议息会议如期降息 25BP，铜价上行。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the robust growth of emerging consumer goods, reflecting the new consumption concepts developed by the younger generation in the current social environment. Understanding this new consumption narrative is crucial for capturing the growth of new consumer companies [4][15] - The report suggests focusing on high-quality domestic brands with strong professionalism and innovation in the beauty and skincare sector, such as Mao Geping and Shangmei [4][15] - In the gold and jewelry sector, it recommends attention to leading brands in the ancient gold segment that are favored by younger consumers, such as Laopu Gold and Chaohongji [4][15] - For trendy toys, companies with successful experience in IP creation and operation, like Pop Mart, are highlighted [4][15] - In the ready-to-drink tea segment, it advises focusing on strong brand power and extensive business coverage of leading tea brands like Mixue Group and Guming [4][15] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Performance - In November, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.7% year-on-year, with the rise primarily driven by food prices turning from decline to increase. The CPI's year-on-year growth rate expanded by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the highest level since March 2024 [4] - The report tracks the performance of the new consumption sector, noting a weekly decline of 1.64% in the beauty and personal care sector and a 0.21% decline in the retail sector from December 8 to December 12, 2025 [7] Key Industry Data - In October, the retail sales of clothing and textiles increased by 6.3% year-on-year, cosmetics by 9.6%, and gold and silver jewelry by 37.6% [11][17] - The report indicates that the retail sales of beverages rose by 7.1% year-on-year in October [17]

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 13 日 如何解读 11 月金融数据？ ——2025 年 11 月金融数据点评 投资要点： 事件：12 月 12 日傍晚央行披露了 11 月金融数据：新增贷款 3900 亿元，社融增量 2.49 万亿元。11 月末，M2 达 337.0 万亿，YoY+8.0%；M1 YoY +4.9%；社融增速 8.5%。 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 信贷需求持续偏弱，11 月新增贷款同比少增。由于信贷需求偏弱，季初月新增贷款 往往较低，季末月银行偏好冲信贷规模以做大季末时点贷款规模。11 月新增贷款仅 3900 亿，同比大幅少增。11 月个贷-2063 亿，对公+6100 亿，非银同业贷款-147 亿。11 月个贷短期-2158 亿，个贷中长期+100 亿，均同比大幅少增，反映居民主 动去杠杆，消费及按揭信贷需求皆弱。11 月对公短贷+1000 亿，对公中长期+1700 亿，票据融资+3342 亿，对公信贷需 ...

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 13 日 中央经济工作会议的几个债市信号 ——12 月中央经济工作会议点评 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 25Q3 以来，看空债市的较多，长债显著调整，超长债期限利差明显走阔。截至 12 月 11 日，10 年期国债收益率较 1 月 2 日上升 22BP，30 年期国债收益率上升 38BP， 5 年期商业银行二级资本债（AAA-）收益率则上升了 44BP。12 月 11 日的"30Y-10Y" 国债期限利差达 39BP，2023 年初以来利差为[10,43]BP,目前接近区间上限。考虑到 今年 5 月政策利率下调了 10BP，但长债收益率大幅高于年初，不仅修正了 2024 年 底大幅降息的预期，甚至定价了些未来加息的预期。本次中央经济工作会议明确提 出，"继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，" 这说明当前仍处于降准降息的大周期中。 2026 年政府债券净融资 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company reported a decline in performance for the third quarter, but its stable earnings and dividend value are highlighted [5] - The company plans to acquire 1.6GW of wind power, which is expected to significantly enhance profitability [7] - The coal-electricity integration strategy is expected to solidify the company's profit moat, with a commitment to substantial dividends over the next three years [7] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to have a revenue of 19,533 million RMB, a decrease of 12.38% year-on-year [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2,140 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.96% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.33 RMB [6] - The company has a target price of 5.03 RMB per share based on a discounted cash flow analysis [7]