Key Points - The report indicates that there is still potential for credit spread compression, particularly in the context of different bond types and their excess spreads compared to similar maturity and rating bonds [1][3][35] - As of January 30, 2026, the excess spreads for 3Y AAA-rated bank subordinated bonds, perpetual bonds, and industrial bonds are 6.1BP, 6.6BP, and 11.0BP, respectively, which are at the 92%, 79%, and 44% percentiles since early 2025 [1][3][35] - The report suggests that the selection of bonds based on value for money ranks as follows: bank subordinated bonds > perpetual bonds > urban investment bonds > industrial bonds [1][35] Credit Strategy Review for January 2026 - The yield of bank subordinated bonds has significantly decreased, and the excess spreads remain high, indicating potential for further compression [3][6] - The report notes that the 3Y AA+ urban investment bond yield decreased by 9BP, with the yield at the end of January 2026 being 1.91% [11] - Factors contributing to the decline in credit bond yields include limited corporate financing demand, stable credit issuance, and a loose funding environment [11][14] Performance of Different Credit Strategies - In January 2026, the performance of various credit strategies ranked as follows: duration extension > barbell strategy > 3Y bullet strategy > short-end sinking [15] - The returns for the duration extension strategy for urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, bank subordinated bonds, and perpetual bonds were 0.65%, 0.85%, 0.76%, and 0.82%, respectively [15][18] - The report highlights that the short-end sinking strategy yielded returns of 0.16%-0.19% across different bond types, although its performance was generally average [17][18] Outlook for February 2026 - The report anticipates that the overall funding environment will remain tight, with a weak recovery in the fundamentals [35] - It is expected that the central bank's operations will lead to a decrease in funding rates, potentially resulting in a further decline in long-term bond yields by 5-10BP in Q1 2026 [35] - The report emphasizes that the credit spread compression trend is likely to continue, with a focus on the performance of various bond types [35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company, Pudong Construction, is a state-owned enterprise in the Pudong New Area, focusing on municipal construction and infrastructure development. It has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, with a dividend payout ratio expected to increase to 43.66% in 2024, reflecting its robust financial health and investment attractiveness [6][9] - The company has a diversified business model that includes design, construction, and investment, with a focus on integrated infrastructure services. It aims to enhance profit elasticity through mature park operations and stable rental income from projects like Deloitte Park and TOP Chip Link [6][9][39] - The company is expected to face short-term operational pressure due to a decline in new construction orders, but it maintains a strong market position in Shanghai, with significant order concentration in the Pudong area [6][32] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to reach RMB 18,859 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.39%. However, a decline of 19.47% is expected in 2025, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [5][44] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 593 million in 2024, with a slight increase to RMB 369 million by 2027, indicating a stable yet cautious growth outlook [5][46] Business Segments - The construction segment remains the core business, contributing significantly to revenue. The company anticipates a revenue decline of 20% in this segment for 2025, with a gradual recovery thereafter [8][44] - The design and consulting segment is expected to face challenges, with revenue growth projected at -20% for 2025, while the park development segment is seen as a future growth driver [8][44] Market Environment - Shanghai's fiscal strength is robust, with a comprehensive financial capacity of RMB 14,027.9 billion in 2024, ranking sixth nationally. This financial stability supports ongoing infrastructure investments and project execution [27][30] - The company has a strong order backlog, with new construction orders expected to total approximately RMB 137.69 billion in 2025, despite a year-on-year decline of 22.72% [32] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing a strategy to become a "technology-driven full-industry chain infrastructure investment and construction operator," focusing on integrated services across design, construction, and park operations [36][38] - Projects like Deloitte Park and TOP Chip Link are central to the company's strategy, aiming to create high-value park development and operational models that enhance profitability [39][40]

Consumption Trends - The emotional economy market in China is expected to exceed 20 trillion yuan in 2024, with a projected CAGR of 14% from 2025 to 2029[3][60]. - The beauty consumption market is projected to reach nearly 370 billion yuan by 2025, with the retail sales of cosmetics in China estimated at 465.3 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.1%[5][51]. - The health food market is anticipated to reach 720.3 billion yuan by 2029, driven by increasing health awareness and aging population[5]. Policy and Market Dynamics - The Chinese government has prioritized boosting consumption as a key task for 2025, with policies supporting consumption upgrades and equipment renewal[5][9]. - Changing consumer behavior emphasizes emotional value, health, and personalized consumption, indicating a shift towards emotional and social fulfillment in purchasing decisions[5][9]. Key Industry Insights - The maternal and infant food market is projected to reach approximately 55.91 billion yuan in 2024, with the number of maternal and infant chain stores increasing from 21,000 in 2019 to 32,000 in 2024[5]. - The pet economy is expected to grow significantly, with the market size reaching 701.3 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase[58]. Investment Opportunities - Companies in the North Exchange related to beauty consumption include Jinbo Biological, Bawei Co., and Vicky Technology, which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing growth in the beauty sector[5][52]. - The health food sector includes leading brands like Kangbiter and Yizhi Konjac, which are well-placed to capitalize on the rising demand for health-oriented products[5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in the market [5][8]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the African hygiene products market, with a strong local competitive advantage [5][10]. - The company focuses on developing, manufacturing, and selling baby diapers, baby pull-ups, sanitary napkins, and wet wipes, catering to diverse market needs [7][14]. - The report highlights the company's robust growth trajectory, with projected revenue and net profit increases over the next few years [8][47]. Financial Performance - As of February 12, 2026, the closing price is HKD 31.26, with a market capitalization of HKD 19,366.09 million [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are USD 540.43 million, USD 635.51 million, and USD 738.25 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19%, 18%, and 16% [8][47]. - The net profit estimates for the same period are USD 109.83 million, USD 139.94 million, and USD 165.50 million, with growth rates of 15%, 27%, and 18% [8][47]. Market Position - The company holds the top market share in the African baby diaper and sanitary napkin markets, with respective shares of 20.3% and 15.6% based on 2024 sales volume [7][14]. - The company has established a comprehensive distribution network across 12 countries, reaching over 80% of the local population in key markets [42]. Product Strategy - The company employs a multi-brand strategy to cater to various consumer segments, with five major brands targeting different market tiers [26][32]. - The product lines include a total of 341 SKUs, with a focus on continuous product iteration to meet diverse consumer needs [26][32]. Supply Chain and Production - The company has built a robust global supply chain with localized production facilities in eight African countries, enhancing cost efficiency [36][42]. - As of April 30, 2025, the company operates 51 production lines across its facilities, with a total designed capacity for various hygiene products [36][42]. Growth Potential - The report anticipates significant growth in the baby diaper and sanitary napkin segments, driven by increasing birth rates and rising market penetration in Africa [9][47]. - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge due to its established market presence and strong distribution capabilities [10][50].

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The scale of public fixed income + funds reached a historical high of approximately 2.83 trillion yuan by the end of Q4 2025, with a slight increase of 0.09 trillion yuan from Q3 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.2% [6][7][12] - The top five fund companies in terms of fixed income + fund scale as of December 2025 were: Invesco Great Wall (230.9 billion yuan), E Fund (221.9 billion yuan), Huatai-PB (157.1 billion yuan), and others [7][8] - The equity allocation of fixed income + funds reached its highest level since Q4 2023, with stock, bond, and deposit market values accounting for 9.7%, 86.4%, and 1.5% respectively in Q4 2025 [8][9] Group 2: Fund Performance and Holdings - The average annual return for fixed income + funds in 2025 was 5.35%, with specific returns for different fund types: mixed debt funds (6.7%), first-level debt funds (2.4%), second-level debt funds (4.9%), and convertible bond funds (22.9%) [12] - The manufacturing sector dominated the investment focus of fixed income + funds, with an investment scale of 172.2 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 63% of total stock investments [9][10] - The top ten heavy positions in fixed income + funds showed strong stability, with major stocks like Zijin Mining, CATL, and Tencent remaining in the top three [10][11] Group 3: Banking Sector Analysis - The proportion of active equity funds heavily invested in the banking sector increased from 3.6% in Q3 2025 to 4.4% in Q4 2025, with a significant recovery in the banking index's quarterly return from -10.5% to 4.6% [17][18] - Notable banks such as Ningbo Bank and Jiangsu Bank are recommended for their strong asset quality and risk management capabilities, with Ningbo Bank showing a collaborative model in wealth management and technology finance [20][19] - The overall performance of listed banks is relatively weak, but some banks exhibit strong growth potential due to differentiated operational strategies [20] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights on Haibo Shichuang - Haibo Shichuang, established in 2011, has become a leading player in the domestic energy storage system integration market, ranking first in installed capacity in China by the end of 2024 [21][22] - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of energy storage installations driven by the domestic electricity market reforms, with significant projects already secured [22][23] - Internationally, Haibo Shichuang has established partnerships and local teams in key markets, enhancing its ability to deliver projects and improve profitability, particularly in overseas markets [23][24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (first time) [4] Core Viewpoints - The proportion of bank stocks held by actively managed equity funds remains low, with a slight increase in the fourth quarter of 2025. The market capitalization of bank stocks in actively managed funds rose from 1.8% in Q3 2025 to 1.9% in Q4 2025, indicating a gradual recovery [4][12] - The bank index's quarterly return rebounded significantly from -10.5% in Q3 2025 to 4.6% in Q4 2025, reflecting a 15.07 percentage point increase [23] - The report suggests focusing on high-quality banks with stable asset quality and strong risk management capabilities, particularly in favorable economic regions [44][48] Summary by Sections 1. Changes in Fund Holdings in Q4 2025 - The market capitalization of bank stocks held by public funds increased from 3.6% in Q3 2025 to 4.4% in Q4 2025, with a total value of approximately 1,473 billion [6][8] - The increase in bank stock holdings was primarily driven by passive equity funds, which saw their bank stock market capitalization rise from 841.1 billion in Q3 2025 to 1,104.2 billion in Q4 2025, increasing their proportion from 5.4% to 7.0% [19][22] - Active equity funds showed a slight increase in bank stock holdings, with the market capitalization rising from 300.4 billion in Q3 2025 to 305.5 billion in Q4 2025 [21][22] 2. Performance of Bank Stocks - The bank sector's performance was highlighted by a significant recovery in the bank index, which turned positive in Q4 2025 after a negative performance in the previous quarter [23] - The report indicates that the overall performance of listed banks has been relatively weak, but certain banks are showing strong growth potential due to differentiated business strategies [44][48] 3. Recommendations for Investment - The report recommends focusing on banks with robust asset quality and risk management, particularly those in economically strong regions such as Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Nanjing Bank [44][48]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, highlighting it as a leading player in the energy storage system integration sector with expected overseas expansion benefits [5][8]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 930 million, 2.23 billion, and 2.9 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 44%, 140%, and 30% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 42, 18, and 14 for the same years [5][8]. - The company is positioned as a leader in energy storage system integration, with significant growth anticipated from its overseas operations and a strong technological and brand advantage benefiting from the global renewable energy and storage installation growth [5][10]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the stock is 219.00 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 39.44 billion RMB and a circulating market value of about 29.03 billion RMB. The company has a total share capital of 180.09 million shares and a debt-to-asset ratio of 68.17% [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 10.54 billion, 22.88 billion, and 30.49 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.39%, 117.22%, and 33.23% respectively. The expected net profits for the same period are 930 million, 2.23 billion, and 2.9 billion RMB, with corresponding growth rates of 43.58%, 139.59%, and 30.04% [6][8]. Company Overview - Established in 2011, the company has transitioned to focus on energy storage systems since 2019, achieving a leading position in the domestic market. It ranks among the top three globally in new energy storage installations as of 2024 [7][15]. - The company has secured significant contracts with major power groups, contributing to rapid revenue growth, and has established production bases in key regions to enhance delivery capabilities [7][44]. Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic energy storage market is expected to grow significantly due to the implementation of the electricity spot market and capacity pricing mechanisms, which are improving the profitability of storage projects [29][34]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the rapid growth in renewable energy installations and has been awarded multiple large-scale projects since 2020 [7][29]. International Market Opportunities - The global energy storage market is projected to grow substantially, with cumulative installations expected to reach approximately 270 GW by 2025. The company has established partnerships and local teams in key international markets, enhancing its ability to deliver projects [45][56]. - The company has achieved higher profit margins in overseas markets compared to domestic ones, indicating a strong potential for international growth [59].

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 12 日 1 月理财规模季节性下降 ——理财规模跟踪月报（2026 年 1 月） 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 1 月理财规模季节性下降。我们测算，截至 2026 年 1 月末，理财规模合计 32.5 万 亿元，较上年末下降 0.8 万亿元。2026 年春节较晚，理财规模月度增长节奏可能与 春节较晚的 2021 年类似。2021 年 1 月理财规模下降了 0.66 万亿元。1 月份银行的 工作重心往往在存贷款开门红上，理财经理可能会引导客户阶段性赎回理财来冲存 款规模；此外，今年 1 月份理财收益"打榜"乱象规范可能也对理财增长产生了暂 时性的影响。我们预计 2 月理财规模将回升 1 万亿左右，存款利率较低及春节前不 少企业发放年终奖有望带动 2 月理财规模明显回升。2026 年理财规模有望增长 3 万 亿左右。 1 月理财公司固收理财平均当月年化收益率回升。2022 年初以来，理财公 ...

Group 1: Nomination and Background - President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman after months of competition, highlighting his strong ties to Wall Street and alignment with Trump's low-interest rate agenda[2] - Warsh's unique supply-side economic framework connects traditional Republican monetary principles with Trump's aggressive growth objectives, proposing that inflation can be managed through productivity enhancements without raising rates[2] - His criticism of quantitative easing and the Fed's large balance sheet suggests a potential shift towards quantitative tightening if appointed[2] Group 2: Economic Philosophy and Policy Implications - Warsh's economic philosophy has evolved from a crisis pragmatist to a supply-side advocate, emphasizing that true economic growth stems from productivity improvements rather than monetary stimulus[5][8] - He argues against the Phillips Curve trade-off, asserting that the U.S. can achieve high growth and low inflation simultaneously through proper policy reforms[8] - Warsh's radical proposal includes significantly reducing the Fed's $7 trillion balance sheet, which he believes distorts market signals and contributes to financial repression[10] Group 3: Regulatory and Market Impact - His stance on financial regulation favors market discipline over administrative oversight, criticizing the Dodd-Frank Act for creating a false sense of security and hampering banks' ability to serve the economy[12] - Warsh's opposition to the Basel III finalization could lead to reduced capital requirements for banks, potentially unlocking significant buyback capacity[12] - The market anticipates that his leadership may result in a loosening of regulations, particularly concerning major financial institutions[2] Group 4: Risks and Uncertainties - There are concerns about the uncertainty of Fed policies under Warsh, particularly regarding potential political interference in the Fed's independence[15] - Investors are wary of the risks associated with accelerated balance sheet reduction, which could disrupt the supply-demand balance in U.S. Treasuries[16] - The fear of premature interest rate cuts under political pressure could lead to a resurgence of inflation, increasing financing costs for the real economy[16]

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 10 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2026年02月10日 华源晨会精粹 20260210 汽车 矿山无人驾驶专题 1:矿山无人驾驶商业模式&市场规模——汽车行业周报：为 什么看好无人矿卡赛道：1）自动驾驶大规模商业化落地进展最快的下游之一且市场 天花板较高；2）技术较为成熟，经济性突出；3）政策鼓励危险场景无人化；4）出 海逻辑清晰；5）格局初定且有较高行业壁垒；以上因素共同决定了行业龙头厂商或 具备长期成长性&投资价值。矿山无人驾驶致力于解决诸多行业痛点问题："矿区通 常地处偏远+作业环境恶劣+健康风险大+劳动强度大"引致招工难、用工贵；"装备 自动化程度低+生产系统碎片化"引致生产效率低。而这其中运输环节用工占比接近 全矿劳动员工的 50%，属于核心降本增效环节。产品模式下无人矿卡赛道市场规模： 产品模式下，下游一次性买断无人矿卡全生命周期服务（车+智驾套件/单独套件）； 该模式对于无人矿卡服务提供商的优点是"轻资产+回款快"；我们测算这种商业模 式下，中长期的国内市场规模区间预计超 200 亿元。 风险提示：1 ...