证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 29 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 北交所公司首次拟收购新三板公司提供新范式，关注有并购预期相关公司 ——北交所周观察第三十二期（20250629） 投资要点： 风险提示：宏观经济环境变动风险、市场竞争风险、资料统计误差风险 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 科达自控拟 2.09 亿元收购海图科技 51%股权，为新三板拟 IPO 企业提供新思路。2025 年 6 月 27 日，科达自控公告签署《股份转让协议》，拟以 2.091 亿元受让肖涛等 11 名 股东持有的海图科技 51%股权，公司将成为新三板公司海图科技的控股股东。从业务来 看，科达自控主要服务于智慧矿山、智慧市政和新能源充换电领域，提供系统性的解决 方案。海图科技主营业务为智能化视频终端设备及配件的设计、制造、销售，以及提供 相关技术的设计、开发服务。从估值 ...

证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 29 日 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 联系人 5 月电力装机与新疆内蒙 136 号文解读 重申看好风电设备 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——大能源行业 2025 年第 26 周周报（20250628） 投资要点： 电力：5 月新能源装机创历史 新疆内蒙两地 136 号文配套政策分化 （一）5 月新能源装机新增创历史，入市影响仍在延续 国家能源局于 2025 年 6 月 23 日发布 1-5 月全国电力工业统计数据：截至 5 月底， 全国累计发电装机容量 36.1 亿千瓦，同比增长 18.8%。其中，太阳能发电装机容量 10.8 亿千瓦，同比增长 5 ...

证券研究报告 固收深度报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 27 日 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 养老理财稳中求进，未来可期 ——中国个人养老金演进与养老理财透视 投资要点： 我国个人养老金制度全面实施已有半年，我国养老金理财产品正以低风险、稳健收益为 核心优势，在多层次养老体系中快速崛起，展现出"稳中求进、未来可期"的投资潜力。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 | | | 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 图表目录 | 图表 | 1： | | 中国养老体系 5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图表 | 2： | | 我国养老三支柱规模走势（万亿元，%） 6 | | 图表 | 3： | | 个人养老金相关的法律法规 7 | | 图表 | 4： | | 美国养老三支柱规模走势（万亿美元） 8 | | 图表 | 5： | iDeCo | 计划的参与人数与资产规模变化趋势 9 | | 图表 | 6： | 日本 NISA | 计划的账户数与资产规模变化趋势 9 | | 图表 | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The demand for AI power supply equipment is rapidly increasing due to accelerated AI infrastructure development [1][4] - The global computing power scale reached approximately 900 EFLOPS in 2022, with a CAGR of 55% from 2017 to 2022, while China's AI computing power is expected to grow at a CAGR of about 70% from 2023 to 2030 [11] - The capital expenditure (Capex) of cloud service providers is expected to grow by around 50% in 2025, indicating strong support for the industry [13] Summary by Sections AI Data Center System Architecture - The layout of computing power is driving rapid growth in equipment demand [4][43] - The increasing power density of servers is leading to a simultaneous increase in both quantity and price of server power supplies [44] Backup Power Supply - Diesel generators are the mainstream backup power source for data centers, with a significant market share held by foreign manufacturers [45][49] - Domestic manufacturers are expected to benefit from the increasing demand and potential for domestic substitution due to supply constraints faced by foreign suppliers [49][53] Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS) - UPS remains the mainstream solution, while the penetration of HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current) is expected to accelerate [71][74] - HVDC systems are seen as more efficient and reliable compared to traditional UPS systems, with a growing trend towards higher voltage applications [80][89] Related Companies - KOTAI Power is a leading supplier of backup power solutions, focusing on the communication and data center sectors, with a significant portion of revenue coming from environmentally friendly low-noise diesel generators [54][59] - Taihao Technology is focusing on military and emergency power solutions, with a strong emphasis on high-power density and new energy systems [60] - Weichai Heavy Machinery is a leading manufacturer of large power diesel engines, with a strong presence in the generator set market [64][68]

证券研究报告 煤炭开采 行业深度报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 27 日 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邹佩轩 SAC：S1350524070004 zoupeixuan01@huayuanstock.com 邱达治 SAC：S1350525050001 qiudazhi@huayuanstock.com 联系人 煤炭行业中期策略报告 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——成本倒挂煤价筑底，供需再平衡龙头先启航 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 煤炭成本刚性上涨，煤价跌破完全成本，行业或已至底部。煤炭行业常以北方港口 下水煤价格跟踪煤价涨跌，为直观对比煤炭成本与价格标杆，我们选取中国神华、 陕西煤业、中煤能源三家代表我国晋陕蒙动力煤主产地资源禀赋的龙头上市煤企， 根据其较为一致的成本核算准则及较长期的历史财报数据，结合行业公允的运输成 本，测算出 2014-2024 年行业的完全成本及现金成本。据 ...

Group 1: Deep Sea Technology and Situational Awareness - The report highlights the increasing focus on "Deep Sea Technology" due to the upcoming military parade on September 3, which will showcase new combat forces including unmanned systems and underwater equipment [2][8] - The core of "Deep Sea Technology" revolves around resource security, national defense construction, and blue economy, with situational awareness being a key component [2][9] - The challenges in situational awareness construction lie in underwater signal processing, which is deemed critical for effective underwater operations [9][10] Group 2: Huaren Microelectronics (华润微) - Huaren Microelectronics operates a fully integrated supply chain model, focusing on power semiconductors and smart sensors, with a recovery expected in the power semiconductor market [11][12] - The company has a significant market share in IGBT products, particularly in industrial and automotive applications, with plans to expand into new customer segments [11][12] - The report projects a steady increase in net profit for Huaren Microelectronics from 9.59 billion to 16.50 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with a corresponding PE ratio decline [13] Group 3: Zhongyuan Expressway (中原高速) - Zhongyuan Expressway focuses on the construction and operation of toll roads, with a projected revenue of 6.969 billion CNY in 2024, where toll income constitutes approximately 63.98% [15][16] - The company has a young asset structure with an average remaining toll collection period of 17.04 years, indicating potential for value reassessment [16][18] - The report anticipates net profits to grow from 10.02 billion to 11.50 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with a favorable PE ratio [18] Group 4: Dekang Agriculture (德康农牧) - Dekang Agriculture is transitioning from a traditional agricultural production company to a platform and technology-driven enterprise, aiming to create a "value symbiosis" ecosystem [5][22] - The company has demonstrated significant profitability advantages, with a projected average income of 770,000 CNY per modern pig farm in 2024, and a return on equity (ROE) of 48% [29][30] - The report forecasts Dekang's net profit to reach 36 billion CNY by 2027, with a PE ratio of 7.69, reflecting its strong growth potential in the agricultural sector [30]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its integrated operations and expected recovery in power semiconductor demand [5][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the power semiconductor industry, with inventory levels returning to reasonable levels and gross margins beginning to rebound [7][10]. - The company operates a fully integrated supply chain, focusing on both product solutions and manufacturing services, which positions it well for growth in various applications, particularly in automotive electronics and industrial sectors [7][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Comprehensive Power Semiconductor Layout - The company employs an IDM model, integrating chip design, mask manufacturing, wafer fabrication, and packaging testing, which enhances operational efficiency [15][17]. - The product and solution segment focuses on power semiconductors, smart sensors, and smart control, while the manufacturing and service segment provides large-scale mask manufacturing, wafer fabrication, and packaging testing [7][15]. 2. Power Semiconductor: Diverse Product Series and Application Expansion - The global power semiconductor market is expected to grow steadily, with domestic manufacturers catching up [69]. - The company is expanding its MOSFET products into automotive electronics, industrial applications, and AI servers, with IGBT products dominating over 70% in industrial and automotive sectors [7][10]. 3. Manufacturing and Services: Specialized Process Platforms - The company has established multiple wafer manufacturing lines, including 8-inch and 12-inch lines, with a focus on high-performance products [21][23]. - The packaging and testing segment covers a wide range of semiconductor testing processes, ensuring comprehensive service offerings [21][23]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 959 million, 1.205 billion, and 1.650 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.80%, 25.63%, and 36.91% [6][8]. - The current price-to-earnings ratios are estimated at 64.88, 51.65, and 37.72 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Dekang Agriculture [1][14][16] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the agricultural industry is at a pivotal moment, necessitating a reevaluation of strategies to address emerging challenges and opportunities [4][5] - Dekang is transitioning from a traditional agricultural production company to a modern service-oriented platform, focusing on a "platform + ecosystem" strategy to enhance efficiency and sustainability [10][11][12] - The company aims to create a value-sharing ecosystem that benefits all stakeholders, including farmers and enterprises, by leveraging technology and innovation [11][12][18] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The pig farming industry in China is characterized by inefficiency and significant variance in operational performance among companies, with a need for modernization and technological advancement [6][29] - The report highlights a shift in national agricultural policy towards ensuring farmers' rights and fostering enterprise innovation, indicating a supportive environment for companies like Dekang [5][27][28] Company Strategy - Dekang's "platform + ecosystem" strategy is designed to facilitate collaboration across the supply chain, enhancing overall efficiency and profitability [11][12] - The company has invested significantly in technology and innovation, aiming to improve breeding efficiency and product quality, which aligns with national agricultural goals [12][13][18] Financial Projections - The report forecasts that Dekang will serve 3,900 to 5,000 modern farms by 2027, with significant revenue growth projected from service fees [14][16] - Expected net profits before fair value adjustments for biological assets are projected to reach 36 billion, 54 billion, and 76 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, respectively [14][16] Competitive Position - Dekang is positioned to outperform competitors in terms of profitability, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 48% in 2024, significantly higher than peers [13][14] - The company’s operational efficiency is underscored by its low fixed asset investment per head, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge in the industry [12][36]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its asset optimization and growth potential [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a young asset structure and value reassessment driven by asset optimization. The focus on operational efficiency and network expansion is anticipated to enhance revenue and profitability [4][5][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenue of RMB 6,825 million for 2025, with a slight decline of 2.06% year-on-year, followed by a recovery to RMB 7,017 million in 2026 and RMB 7,438 million in 2027. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from RMB 1,002 million in 2025 to RMB 1,150 million in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.32% [4][6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from RMB 0.45 in 2025 to RMB 0.51 in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 10.92x to 9.52x over the same period [4][6]. Business Structure - The company primarily operates toll roads, with toll revenue accounting for approximately 63.98% of total revenue in 2024. The construction service segment contributes 33.22%, while real estate sales account for only 1.25% [5][15]. - The company has a total of 808 kilometers of managed highways, with a weighted average remaining toll collection period of 17.04 years, providing ample time for traffic growth and revenue generation [5][42]. Dividend Policy - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, committing to a minimum cash dividend payout ratio of 40% of net profit from 2025 to 2027. The dividend payout ratio was 40.42% in 2023 and is expected to rise to 43.40% in 2024 [5][35]. Market Position - The company benefits from a strategic location in Henan Province, a key transportation hub in China, enhancing its operational advantages and potential for traffic growth [5][36]. - The company is part of the Henan Transportation Investment Group, which holds a significant share of the province's toll road assets, providing a strong backing for its operations and growth prospects [12][57].

Fixed Income - The development of insurance subordinated bonds has gone through three stages, with perpetual bonds being the mainstream issuance type currently [7][8] - As of June 6, 2025, there are 56 insurance companies with 100 outstanding subordinated bonds, totaling a bond balance of 495.41 billion [7] - The active trading volume of insurance subordinated bonds is between that of bank and brokerage subordinated bonds, with a trading volume of 303.38 billion from December 6, 2024, to June 6, 2025 [8][9] Media - The card game industry has evolved through three key phases: the Ultraman card era, the My Little Pony era, and the Nezha and other IP era, showcasing the industry's growth and adaptation [11][12] - The barriers to entry in the card game market are based on first-mover advantages, channel strength, product quality, and IP operation capabilities [12] - The card game market in China is projected to reach 44.6 billion by 2029, indicating significant growth potential [12][13] Machinery/Construction - The demand for underwater situational awareness is urgent, with the need for advanced sonar technology highlighted by recent government initiatives [17][18] - The company has developed an intelligent underwater sound signal processing system, which addresses industry pain points in both military and civilian applications [19] - The expected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is projected to grow significantly, indicating strong potential in the deep-sea technology sector [19] Transportation - Jinjiang Shipping has established itself as a premium shipping company focusing on Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, with a strong market presence and high customer loyalty [21][22] - The company’s gross profit margin reached 48.81% in the first half of 2023, demonstrating resilience amid market fluctuations [21] - The outlook for the intra-Asian shipping market is optimistic, with expected demand growth supported by stable economic conditions and RCEP agreements [22][23]