Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its asset optimization and growth potential [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a young asset structure and value reassessment driven by asset optimization. The focus on operational efficiency and network expansion is anticipated to enhance revenue and profitability [4][5][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenue of RMB 6,825 million for 2025, with a slight decline of 2.06% year-on-year, followed by a recovery to RMB 7,017 million in 2026 and RMB 7,438 million in 2027. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from RMB 1,002 million in 2025 to RMB 1,150 million in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.32% [4][6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from RMB 0.45 in 2025 to RMB 0.51 in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 10.92x to 9.52x over the same period [4][6]. Business Structure - The company primarily operates toll roads, with toll revenue accounting for approximately 63.98% of total revenue in 2024. The construction service segment contributes 33.22%, while real estate sales account for only 1.25% [5][15]. - The company has a total of 808 kilometers of managed highways, with a weighted average remaining toll collection period of 17.04 years, providing ample time for traffic growth and revenue generation [5][42]. Dividend Policy - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, committing to a minimum cash dividend payout ratio of 40% of net profit from 2025 to 2027. The dividend payout ratio was 40.42% in 2023 and is expected to rise to 43.40% in 2024 [5][35]. Market Position - The company benefits from a strategic location in Henan Province, a key transportation hub in China, enhancing its operational advantages and potential for traffic growth [5][36]. - The company is part of the Henan Transportation Investment Group, which holds a significant share of the province's toll road assets, providing a strong backing for its operations and growth prospects [12][57].

Fixed Income - The development of insurance subordinated bonds has gone through three stages, with perpetual bonds being the mainstream issuance type currently [7][8] - As of June 6, 2025, there are 56 insurance companies with 100 outstanding subordinated bonds, totaling a bond balance of 495.41 billion [7] - The active trading volume of insurance subordinated bonds is between that of bank and brokerage subordinated bonds, with a trading volume of 303.38 billion from December 6, 2024, to June 6, 2025 [8][9] Media - The card game industry has evolved through three key phases: the Ultraman card era, the My Little Pony era, and the Nezha and other IP era, showcasing the industry's growth and adaptation [11][12] - The barriers to entry in the card game market are based on first-mover advantages, channel strength, product quality, and IP operation capabilities [12] - The card game market in China is projected to reach 44.6 billion by 2029, indicating significant growth potential [12][13] Machinery/Construction - The demand for underwater situational awareness is urgent, with the need for advanced sonar technology highlighted by recent government initiatives [17][18] - The company has developed an intelligent underwater sound signal processing system, which addresses industry pain points in both military and civilian applications [19] - The expected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is projected to grow significantly, indicating strong potential in the deep-sea technology sector [19] Transportation - Jinjiang Shipping has established itself as a premium shipping company focusing on Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, with a strong market presence and high customer loyalty [21][22] - The company’s gross profit margin reached 48.81% in the first half of 2023, demonstrating resilience amid market fluctuations [21] - The outlook for the intra-Asian shipping market is optimistic, with expected demand growth supported by stable economic conditions and RCEP agreements [22][23]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5][12] Core Viewpoints - The recent military parade on September 3 has increased market attention on the "Deep Sea Technology" strategy, which emphasizes resource security, national defense construction, and blue economy, with situational awareness being a key focus [5] - The government work report has elevated "Deep Sea Technology" to a strategic level, highlighting the need for a comprehensive underwater perception system to address security challenges posed by foreign reconnaissance devices in China's waters [5] - The construction of situational awareness capabilities is deemed essential for development, with sonar equipment being the core component due to the complexities of underwater signal processing [5] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Investment Highlights**: The focus is on the construction of situational awareness capabilities, particularly in underwater signal processing, which faces significant challenges due to environmental noise and target stealth [5] - **Sector Performance**: Key companies to watch include China Marine Defense, Jizhi Co., and Zhongke Haixun, each with unique capabilities in underwater information acquisition, intelligent underwater technology, and sonar systems [5] - **Company Profiles**: - **China Marine Defense**: Engages in underwater information systems and has acquired assets from various military units [5] - **Jizhi Co.**: Collaborated with Zhijiang Laboratory to develop intelligent underwater sound technology, entering a revenue-generating phase [5] - **Zhongke Haixun**: Provides signal processing platforms and has core technologies in sonar systems, capable of offering comprehensive solutions [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that since September 2024, the central government's clear requirement has been to stabilize the real estate and stock markets. The focus on building quality housing and high-quality residential properties is expected to lead to a development wave in this sector [5][48] - The report suggests that the real estate market is under pressure, with significant declines in investment and new construction areas, but there are also measures being taken to stimulate demand through urban renewal and housing quality improvement initiatives [48][49] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.5%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.2%, and the real estate sector (Shenwan) by 1.7% during the week [5][8] - In terms of individual stocks, notable gainers included Tibet City Investment (+10.3%) and Shibei High-tech (+5.9%), while significant losers included ST Zhongdi (-10.5%) and Zhujiang Shares (-9.6%) [5][8] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - For the week of June 14-20, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 2.38 million square meters, a 12.5% increase from the previous week, but a 12.9% decrease year-on-year [15][19] - Cumulatively, from June 1-20, new housing transactions reached 6 million square meters, a 9.4% increase month-on-month but a 5.4% decrease year-on-year [19] Second-hand Housing Transactions - For the week of June 14-20, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 2.19 million square meters, a 1.4% increase from the previous week, but a 5.7% decrease year-on-year [32][36] - Cumulatively, from June 1-20, second-hand housing transactions reached 5.91 million square meters, a 12.2% increase month-on-month and a 2.0% increase year-on-year [36] Industry News - From January to May 2025, real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year-on-year, with new construction area down by 22.8% and completed area down by 17.3% [48][49] - The report highlights various local government initiatives aimed at improving housing quality and facilitating urban renewal, including adjustments to public housing policies in cities like Shenzhen and Jiangsu [48][49] Company Announcements - China Resources Land issued up to 3 billion yuan in medium-term notes, with interest rates ranging from 1.8% to 3.0% [51] - Poly Developments received approval for a 5 billion yuan short-term financing bond [51]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of underwater technology and positions the company as a potential leader in this field, particularly in sonar technology [8] - The demand for underwater situational awareness is urgent, and the company is well-positioned to benefit from the acceleration of "deep-sea technology" initiatives [8] - The company's products aim to address industry pain points related to weak signal processing in complex marine environments, with applications in both military and civilian sectors [8] Financial Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2025 is 410 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 52.46% [7] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 53 million RMB, representing a significant increase of 179.77% compared to the previous year [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.48 RMB, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 76.28 [7] - The company is expected to achieve a return on equity (ROE) of 6.92% in 2025, increasing to 16.39% by 2027 [7][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the card game industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The evolution of population demographics is enhancing the willingness of the new generation of users to pay for IP, making card games an important form of IP derivative products [4] - The card game market in China is expected to grow significantly, with projections estimating a market size of 44.6 billion yuan by 2029 [6][12] - Key companies to watch include Card Game, Yaoji Technology, Zhejiang Shuju, Aofei Entertainment, Shanghai Film, and Huali Technology [4] Summary by Sections 1. The Three Stages of Card Game Development - **Ultraman Era**: Card Game established industry standards and gained a first-mover advantage by launching Ultraman trading card series in 2018, achieving significant commercialization [6][12] - **My Little Pony Era**: Card Game leveraged its comprehensive product, channel, and marketing capabilities to reduce reliance on top IPs, successfully expanding its user base to include women and adults through live-streaming card unpacking [6][25] - **Nezha and Other IPs Era**: Card Game demonstrated its supply chain capabilities by quickly responding to the market with Nezha-related products, achieving rapid sales growth post the movie's release [6][32] 2. Card Games as a Promising Direction in China's Toy Market - The card game industry is seen as a rapidly growing segment within the broader toy market, with cultural exploration accelerating in China [6][12] - The financialization of the U.S. card market and the cultural foundation of Japan's card market provide insights for China's market development [6][12] 3. Future Focus Areas for Card Game - **Focus Area One**: Identifying the next blockbuster product based on the IP matrix is crucial for sustaining consumer engagement [6][32] - **Focus Area Two**: Exploring new consumer demands in stationery and trendy toys, with early successes in the stationery business [6][32] - **Focus Area Three**: Expanding into overseas markets, with existing collaborations with international toy and game giants [6][32] 4. Analysis of Card Game's IPO Prospectus - Card Game is positioned as a pioneer in the trading card business, with a well-experienced management team and a robust financial analysis indicating high product elasticity [6][41] 5. Related Companies in the Card Game Industry - Companies such as Yaoji Technology, Zhejiang Shuju, Aofei Entertainment, Shanghai Film, and Huali Technology are identified as key players in the card game sector [6][41]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future performance [5][8]. Core Views - The company, Jinjiang Shipping, is positioned as a premium shipping company in Asia, focusing on the Northeast Asia routes while expanding into Southeast Asia, which is expected to drive growth [7][10]. - The company has a strong operational model with high-quality service standards, particularly in its Northeast Asia routes, which serve as a stable revenue source [10][36]. - The financial health of the company is robust, with a consistent dividend payout ratio of around 50% since its IPO, reflecting strong cash flow and profitability [44][75]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of June 23, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is 11.72 CNY, with a total market capitalization of 15,167.09 million CNY and a circulating market value of 2,275.09 million CNY [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to generate revenues of 5,799 million CNY in 2025, with a slight decline of 2.87% year-on-year, followed by growth in subsequent years [6][74]. - The expected net profit for 2025 is 800 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 21.58%, but with a recovery forecasted in the following years [6][75]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 18.95, 17.05, and 14.63, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [6][75]. Business Model and Strategy - Jinjiang Shipping has established a differentiated service model, focusing on high punctuality and premium services, particularly through its Hot Delivery Service (HDS) [7][27]. - The company is expanding its operations into Southeast Asia, replicating its successful Northeast Asia model, which is expected to enhance profitability [10][43]. - The company has a strong market presence, maintaining a leading market share in key routes such as Shanghai to Japan [15][24]. Industry Outlook - The Asian intra-regional shipping market is expected to grow, driven by stable economic growth and the deepening of trade agreements like RCEP [55][62]. - Demand for shipping services is projected to increase, with forecasts indicating a growth rate of 2.5% to 3.0% in shipping demand for the Asian region in 2025 and 2026 [55][67]. - Supply-side constraints, including a reduction in new ship deliveries and aging fleets, are anticipated to limit capacity growth, which may support freight rates in the coming years [67][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests actively paying attention to opportunities in some insurance subordinated debts [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Insurance subordinated debts have gone through three development stages, with perpetual bonds being the mainstream issuance type currently. In the context of the domestic "asset shortage," some insurance subordinated debts have relative coupon advantages, and certain ones have relatively high investment value, but issuers with non - redemption situations or those that have not disclosed financial information for a long time should be carefully selected [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Insurance Subordinated Debt Development History - **Three - stage Development and Current Situation**: Insurance subordinated debt development has three stages. From 2005 - 2014, only subordinated term debts were issued; from 2015 - 2023, capital supplementary bonds were the main type; since 2023, perpetual bonds have become the mainstream. As of June 6, 2025, 56 insurance companies have 100 outstanding subordinated debts with a balance of 495.41 billion yuan [2][10]. - **Issuance Scale Fluctuations**: From 2005 to the end of 2024, the issuance scale of insurance subordinated debts showed four upward and three downward trends. Factors such as economic slowdown, regulatory policies, and industry reforms influenced these fluctuations. Life insurance companies are the main issuers [15]. - **Rating and Interest Rate Characteristics**: High - rated bonds dominate. From 2016 - 2025/06/08, the issuance scale ranking of different - rated insurance subordinated debts is AAA>AA +>AAA +>AA>AA ->A +. The overall issuance interest rate has shown a downward trend, and different - rated issuers have significant differences in coupon rates [19]. - **Enterprise Nature of Issuers**: As of June 6, 2025, central - owned enterprises account for 53.5% of the outstanding scale of insurance subordinated debts, indicating good overall credit quality of issuers [26]. - **Regulatory Policy Changes**: Key regulatory policy nodes include the release of the "Interim Measures for the Administration of Subordinated Term Debts of Insurance Companies" in 2004, the "Measures for the Administration of Subordinated Term Debts of Insurance Companies" in 2011, the permission for insurance groups to issue subordinated debts in 2013, the start of capital supplementary bond issuance in 2015, and the permission for issuing perpetual bonds in 2022 [29]. - **Solvency Policy Evolution**: Solvency policies have gone through "Solvency Generation I," "Solvency Generation II Phase I," and "Solvency Generation II Phase II." "Solvency Generation I" focused on asset scale, while "Solvency Generation II" focused on risk control. The implementation of "Solvency Generation II Phase II" has put pressure on insurance companies' solvency [33]. - **Differences between Capital Supplementary Bonds and Perpetual Bonds**: Capital supplementary bonds have a definite maturity, can supplement supplementary tier - 1 capital, and are prioritized in repayment. Perpetual bonds have no fixed maturity, can supplement core tier - 2 capital, and have a stronger subordinated nature [36]. - **Special Provisions and Risks**: Some insurance subordinated debts contain special provisions such as call options and write - down clauses. There is a risk of non - redemption, and historical non - redemption cases are mainly due to solvency pressure or operating losses [39][43]. 3.2 Activity Level of Insurance Subordinated Debts - **Outstanding Debt Situation**: As of June 6, 2025, 56 insurance institutions have 100 outstanding subordinated debts, with a capital supplementary bond scale of 378.04 billion yuan and a perpetual bond scale of 117.37 billion yuan. The remaining maturities of capital supplementary bonds are mainly within 1 year and 4 - 5 years, while perpetual bonds are in the 3 - 4 years and 4 - 5 years ranges [48][49]. - **Secondary Market Transactions**: From December 6, 2024, to June 6, 2025, 89 insurance subordinated debts had secondary - market trading records. Life insurance companies had the highest trading volume and turnover, followed by property insurance companies. The average turnover rate of perpetual bonds was higher than that of capital supplementary bonds [50][52]. - **Comparison with Other Subordinated Debts**: The trading activity of insurance subordinated debts is between that of bank and securities firm subordinated debts. The trading volume is lower than that of bank perpetual bonds but higher than that of securities firm subordinated debts. The turnover rate is lower than that of commercial bank subordinated debts but higher than that of securities firm subordinated debts [3][56]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation of Insurance Subordinated Debts - **Supply - side Situation**: The solvency adequacy ratio of insurance companies has declined. From the end of 2020 to the end of the first quarter of 2025, the comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio dropped from 184.75% to 131.42%, and the core solvency adequacy ratio dropped from 186.37% to 149.72%. There is potential for an increase in bond issuance [60]. - **Demand - side Situation**: Insurance institutions hold each other's subordinated debts, while asset management products (public funds, securities firm asset management, and bank wealth management) hold a small proportion. As of Q1 25, these three types of products held a total market value of 20.816 billion yuan of insurance subordinated debts, accounting for 2.34% of the total market value [4][62]. - **Public Fund Holdings**: Public funds hold more capital supplementary bonds with implicit AA +/AA ratings issued by central - owned enterprises. They increased their holdings of AA +/AA - rated and central - owned enterprise - issued subordinated debts in Q1 25 compared to the end of 2024 [66][67].

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 24 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年06月24日 华源晨会精粹 20250624 固定收益 "数据中心 REIT"有何不同？——REITs 系列专题报告：截至 2025 年 6 月 16 日，C-REITs 已累计上市 66 只，累计市值突破 2000 亿元。一级发行方面， 2024 年全年发行上市 29 只 C-REITs，累计发行规模 656 亿元；二级表现上，2025 年 6 月 16 日中证 REITs 全收益指数收于 1117.87 点，较 2025 年初累计涨幅达 14.69%，收益率在各项大类资产中领跑。2025 年 6 月 18 日，"南方万国数据中心 REIT"、"南方润泽科技数据中心 REIT"获批，分别为上交所、深交所的首单数据 中心公募 REITs，底层资产类型进一步扩容。数据中心 REITs 作为新型基础设施资 产，与传统产权类 REITs 在运营模式、收益稳定性、估值逻辑等方面存在显著差异。 C-REITs 二级持仓以券商自营、保险资金为主。"数据中心 REIT"作为"新基建" 的 ...

证券研究报告 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 联系人 宏观要闻：上海将实施八项金融开放举措，有助持续提升跨境贸易和投融资便利化 水平。2025 年 5 月消费持续改善，投资稳定增长。5 月社会消费品零售总额 4.1 万 亿元，同比增长 6.4%，增速环比加快 1.3pct。1-5 月全国固定资产投资（不含农户） 19.2 万亿元，同比增长 3.7%，增速较 1-4 月份放缓 0.3pct。美国联邦储备委员会 6 月 18 日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25% 至 4.50%之间不变，此次是美联储货币政策会议连续第四次决定维持利率不变。 中观高频数据：消费市场结构性回暖：乘用车市场延续高增长，截至 6 月 15 日当周 乘用车厂家日均零售/批发同比分别+22.7%/+38.0%；工业开工率分化明显：截至 6 月 19 日，当周沥青开工率同比+1.0pct，但纯碱、PVC 当周开工率同比回落；地产 链修复动能不足：截至 6 月 20 日，当周 30 城商品房合计成交面积同比-4.4%，但 成交套数同比+1 ...