证券研究报告 机械设备 | 专用设备 北交所|新股申购 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 03 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com ——空压机及凿岩设备"小巨人"，拟募资扩产智能化钻机稳固海内外业务版图 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 发行价格 17.41 元/股，发行市盈率 14.24X，申购日为 2025 年 8 月 5 日。志高机械本次发行 价格 17.41 元/股，发行市盈率 14.24X，申购日为 2025 年 8 月 5 日。本次公开发行股份初始 发行股份数量为 2,148.1488 万股，发行后总股本为 8,592.5951 万股，本次发行数量占发行 后总股本的 25%（超额配售选择权行使前）；若超额配售选择权全额行使，则发行总股数将 扩大至 2,470.3711 万股，发行后总股本扩大至 8,914.8174 万股，本次发行数量占超额配售 选择权全额行使后发行后总股本的 27.71 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an overall optimistic view of the North Exchange market for the whole year, believing that the positioning and development direction of the "specialized, refined, characteristic, and innovative" North Exchange market are highly consistent with the national policy orientation of the "self - controllable" and innovation - driven development strategy [24]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July 2025, the North - 50 Index and the North Specialized, Refined, Characteristic, and Innovative Index underperformed major indices such as the ChiNext and STAR Market. However, in the first seven months of 2025, the North - 50 Index rose 37%, outperforming other major indices. The market was weak in July, but some sub - sectors like building decoration and pharmaceutical biology performed well. The market has been in a range - bound consolidation for over two months, and with continuous progress in "high - quality" expansion, code switching of existing stocks, and the issuance of specialized, refined, characteristic, and innovative index funds, the market should gradually turn optimistic. The market may return to the performance - driven mainline, and attention should be paid to high - quality companies with continuous high - growth performance [3][6][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - view - In July 2025, the North - 50 Index fell 1.68%, and the North Specialized, Refined, Characteristic, and Innovative Index fell 2.70%, underperforming major indices. In the first seven months of 2025, the North - 50 Index rose 37%, far outperforming other major indices, and indices such as the STAR - 200 and CSI 2000 also rose over 20%. In July, sectors such as building decoration and pharmaceutical biology in the North Exchange market had relatively high increases. Only 16 companies had a monthly increase of over 20%, and 6 companies including Hengli Drilling Tools had an increase of over 50%. Compared with June 2025, trading volume, turnover, and turnover rate in July all declined. As of July 31, 2025, the overall price - to - earnings ratio (TTM, excluding negatives) of the North Exchange A - share index reached 51 times, 134% of the ChiNext index and 84% of the STAR Market index [3][6][12]. 3.2 Market Performance - This week, the overall price - to - earnings ratios of the ChiNext, STAR Market, and North Exchange A - shares declined. The North Exchange A - shares' overall PE dropped from 52.17X to 50.92X. In terms of liquidity, the daily average trading volume of North Exchange A - shares this week was 257 billion yuan, a 17% decrease from last week. The daily average turnover rate of North Exchange A - shares dropped to 5.94%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from last week. The North - 50 Index fell 2.70% this week, and major indices such as the CSI 300, STAR - 50, and ChiNext also declined [26][27]. 3.3 New Stock Listings - From January 1, 2024, to August 1, 2025, 30 new companies were listed on the North Exchange. From July 28 to August 1, 2025, 1 new company, Dingjia Precision, was listed. From January 1, 2023, to August 1, 2025, the average issue price - to - earnings ratio of 107 listed companies was 16.20X, and the median was 15.86X. The average first - day increase was 111%, and the median was 51% [32][35]. 3.4 New Stock IPOs - From July 28 to August 1, 2025, 2 companies, Aomisen and Sanxie Electric, updated their review status to registration; 1 company, Yangtze River Energy Technology, updated its status to passing the listing committee meeting; 22 companies updated their status to being under inquiry. Next week, the North Exchange will review the IPO applications of 2 companies, Zhongcheng Consulting and Nante Technology [41].

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The approval of coal power and pumped storage remains at a high level, indicating a sustained demand for traditional power generation equipment [5][7] - In July 2025, China approved 5.3GW of new coal power installations, lower than the 12.7GW in 2023 and 6.7GW in 2024 for the same period. The cumulative approved capacity from January to July reached 35.9GW, which is lower than 53GW in 2023 but roughly equal to 36GW in 2024 [11][15] - The peak load issue in China is becoming more pronounced due to the faster growth of electricity consumption in the tertiary sector and among urban and rural residents compared to the secondary sector. As of July 16, 2025, the highest electricity load in China exceeded 1.5 billion kilowatts, an increase of 0.55 million kilowatts compared to 2024, with further increases likely [15][17] Summary by Sections Section 1: Coal Power and Pumped Storage - The approval intensity for coal power remains unexpectedly high, with a total of 90.5GW, 83GW, and 78GW approved from 2022 to 2024, respectively. The current approval strength in 2025 has not declined, supporting previous assessments that the sustainability of high-intensity coal power approvals may exceed market expectations [15][21] - The effective capacity of coal power units is determined by the nameplate capacity minus auxiliary power consumption, while the effective capacity of wind and solar power is significantly lower, at 7% and 1% of their installed capacity, respectively [18][19] - For 2030, it is estimated that a net increase of 340GW of coal power will be needed to ensure system reserve rates do not decline, given the expected peak load increase to 1.94 billion kilowatts [18][19] Section 2: Pumped Storage - From January to July 2025, China approved 18.9GW of pumped storage, lower than 26.6GW in 2023 but higher than 14.3GW in 2022 and 16GW in 2024, indicating a sustained high approval intensity [6][19] - The cumulative approved capacity for pumped storage from 2022 to the first half of 2025 reached 189GW, with an estimated total order value of approximately 150 billion yuan based on a value of 800 million yuan per GW for hydraulic turbines [19][21] - Key companies in the pumped storage sector include Harbin Electric and Dongfang Electric, with Harbin Electric's new water power orders in 2024 reaching 9.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64% [19][21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [5] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading domestic probiotic brand, benefiting from both category penetration and domestic substitution opportunities [5][7] - The Chinese probiotic market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of approximately 138 billion RMB in 2024, driven by health consumption trends and expanding application scenarios [7] - The company has successfully broken the monopoly of high-end strains held by foreign companies and is expanding its downstream coverage in sectors such as food and beverages, health products, etc. [7] - The recent FDA GRAS certification for the company's star strain opens up new market opportunities, particularly in the weight loss sector [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 299 million RMB - 2024: 303 million RMB - 2025E: 439 million RMB - 2026E: 551 million RMB - 2027E: 691 million RMB - The expected growth rates for revenue are 1.19% in 2024, 44.85% in 2025, 25.65% in 2026, and 25.36% in 2027 [6][8] - The projected net profit for the company is as follows: - 2023: 93 million RMB - 2024: 94 million RMB - 2025E: 128 million RMB - 2026E: 168 million RMB - 2027E: 210 million RMB - The expected growth rates for net profit are 0.94% in 2024, 35.90% in 2025, 31.35% in 2026, and 24.48% in 2027 [6][8] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for the company are as follows: - 2025E: 34.93 - 2026E: 26.60 - 2027E: 21.37 [6][8] - The average P/E of comparable companies is estimated at 35X for 2025, indicating a favorable growth outlook for the company [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its growth potential and dividend returns [5][7]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas business and enhancing its dividend policy, which reflects its growth potential and commitment to shareholder returns [5][9]. - The company has a strong market position in the high-end curtain wall and interior decoration sectors, with a robust cash flow supporting high dividend payouts [6][9]. - The report highlights the company's strategic shift towards productization and international expansion, which is expected to drive future growth [9][52]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 23.79 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.19% [5][56]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 683 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 7.06% [5][56]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with an expected dividend yield of 7.00% for 2024, positioning it favorably within the industry [6][37]. Market Position - The company has a market share of 1.63% in the decoration industry as of 2024, indicating a steady increase over the past two years [9][44]. - The company has secured new orders totaling RMB 270.49 billion in 2024, marking a 4.68% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from both domestic and overseas markets [9][48]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing a productization strategy, focusing on customized sales of atypical photovoltaic components and standardized curtain wall products for international markets [9][52]. - The overseas market has become a significant growth driver, with new orders from international markets increasing by 57% in 2024, accounting for 28% of total orders [9][48]. Cash Flow and Profitability - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of RMB 16.26 billion in 2024, reflecting a significant increase from the previous year [6][33]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 16.04%, with expectations for gradual improvement in profitability due to strategic initiatives [55][56].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次) [5] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the functional beverage industry, showing rapid growth in its fundamentals. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.737 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.375 billion yuan, up 37.22% year-on-year [6] - The product structure is diversifying, with revenue from energy drinks, electrolyte drinks, and other beverages in the first half of 2025 reaching 8.361 billion yuan, 1.493 billion yuan, and 877 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.91%, 213.71%, and 66.24% [6] - The company is expanding its energy drink business and the second growth curve "Bushi La" is accelerating. The energy drink segment achieved revenue of 4.46 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.77% [6] - The digital management system is a core driver of the company's continuous growth, with a comprehensive digital operation system covering the entire product lifecycle [6] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.34 billion yuan, 5.65 billion yuan, and 7.024 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 30.46%, 30.19%, and 24.32% [6] Financial Summary - As of July 31, 2025, the company's closing price is 281.30 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 146,279.66 million yuan and a total share capital of 520.01 million shares [3] - The company's asset-liability ratio is 61.86%, and the net asset per share is 16.80 yuan [3] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 20.886 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 31.86% [7] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 8.35 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33.70 [7]

Group 1: Utilities - Recommended stock: Su Yan Jing Shen (603299.SH) due to its stable cash flow from traditional salt and salt chemical businesses, and the potential growth from gas storage projects [3][4] - The company is expected to enter a performance release period with the first phase of the gas storage project nearing production [4] Group 2: Pharmaceuticals - Recommended stock: Ang Li Kang (002940.SZ) as the impact of centralized procurement is gradually clearing, and new products are expected to drive revenue growth [4] - The introduction of ALK-N001, a promising anti-tumor candidate, is anticipated to enhance the company's innovation capabilities [4] Group 3: Media - Recommended stock: Alibaba-W (09988.HK) with a focus on the stabilization of traditional e-commerce and the potential for growth in the instant retail sector [5] - Alibaba Cloud's leading position in the domestic market and continuous revenue growth are highlighted [5] Group 4: Electronics - Recommended stock: Zhong Wei Company (688012.SH) due to its robust order backlog and continuous revenue growth driven by new product launches [6] Group 5: Non-Banking Financials - Recommended stock: China Life (601628.SH) for its excellent asset-liability matching and early transformation in dividend insurance sales [8] - The company is expected to release significant solvency capacity following asset reclassification [8] Group 6: Automotive - Recommended stock: Li Auto (02015.HK) as the company is positioned to leverage its strategic foresight and adaptability in the evolving automotive landscape [9] - The i-series is expected to maintain strong sales momentum, with the first model projected to achieve over 5,000 monthly sales [9] Group 7: Transportation - Recommended stock: YTO Express (600233.SH) with a leading growth rate in business volume, benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend in the industry [10] Group 8: Agriculture - Recommended stock: De Kang Agriculture (02419.HK) as it is positioned at a pivotal point in the agricultural sector, leveraging technology and innovative models for growth [12] - The company's platform strategy is expected to extend into other agricultural segments, enhancing its market presence [12] Group 9: Metals and New Materials - Recommended stock: Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) with a strong performance in the first quarter, exceeding expectations [14] Group 10: North Exchange - Recommended stock: Yuan Hang Precision (833914.BJ) as a leading player in the domestic nickel-based conductor materials sector, benefiting from stable demand across multiple industries [14][15]

证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邱达治 SAC：S1350525050001 qiudazhi@huayuanstock.com 联系人 基础化工 | 化学原料 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 01 日 证券研究报告 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | 2025 | 年 | 07 | 月 31 日 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | 10.48 | | | | | | | 一 年 最 | / | 最 | | | | | 高 | 低 | | 内 | | | （元） | | | | | | 12.86/8.82 | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | 8,191.78 | | | | | | | ...

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 31 日 ——2025 年 7 月 PMI 点评 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 马赫 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com 制造业 PMI 季节性回落，价格指数回升 7 月 PMI 季节性回落，景气度有所下降。7 月制造业 PMI 环比下降 0.4pct 至 49.3%， 2021-2024 年的 7 月制造业 PMI 平均环比下降 0.38pct，今年 7 月下降或主要受部 分地区高温、暴雨、台风灾害等因素影响。7 月产需相关指数有所收缩，价格指数持 续回升。7 月非制造业商务活动指数为 50.1%，环比下降 0.4pct，服务业商务活动指 数和建筑业商务活动指数分别为 50.0%和 50.6%，较上月分别-0.1pct/-2.2pct。7 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2%，较上月-0.5pct，仍位于扩张区间，显示企业生产经 营活动总体扩张虽有所减缓，但经济内生动力持续 ...

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 31 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年07月31日 华源晨会精粹 20250731 固定收益 信用债 ETF 折价套利，可否参与？——信用债热点事件系列：7/21-7/25 期间，或受权益和商品市场强势表现影响，基准做市信用债 ETF 和科创债 ETF 整体 承压调整。科创债 ETF 上市以来资金净流入快速退坡，7/23-7/25 基准做市信用债 ETF 资金大幅流出。影响信用债 ETF 价格的底层因素主要包括：1、底层成分券的 估值波动；2、二级市场的机构行为和市场情绪（主要关注信用债 ETF 升贴水率）； 3、信用债 ETF 的一级申赎情况（若一级市场持续大额赎回会造成 ETF 成分券的二 级市场抛压，主要关注信用债 ETF 流通份额）。我们认为，二级市场折价或带来信 用债 ETF 性价比的阶段性提升，若后市交易情绪修复，ETF 升贴水率向中枢回归， 或将带动 ETF 价格修复，我们建议适度关注信用债 ETF 进入折价区间所带来的阶段 性交易机会。 风险提示：数据口径和统计计算结果偏误风险、理财负反馈对债市 ...