行业评级：看好（维持） 证券研究报告|行业专题报告 传媒 2026年1月23日 招股书·解牛系列报告（一） TOPTOY：中国位居前列的潮玩集合品牌 证券分析师 姓名：陈良栋 资格编号：S1350524100003 邮箱chenliangdong@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 目录 1. 公司概况：始于实体门店，成为潮玩集合零售商 2. 行业概况：潮玩IP产业景气度持续上修，TOP TOY市占 率高 3. 公司业务：打造"自有IP+授权IP+他牌IP"矩阵，构建 全产业价值链环节的一体化平台 4. 风险提示 • "产品不再是被动陈列的库存，而成为互动的道具。空间既为社交联结而设计，亦为交易转化而存在。" 核心观点 • 收入快速增长，盈利能力显著改善：2024年TOPTOY在中国内地实现GMV24亿元人民币，其中自研产品收入占比接 近50%。2022-2024年GMV复合年增长率超过50%。2022/2023/2024/2025H1分别实现收入6.79/14.61/19.09/13.60亿元， 对应毛利率19.9%/31.4%/32.7%/32.4%，对应经调整净 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The performance of thermal power is expected to improve due to a decrease in coal prices in 2025, with notable profit growth anticipated for companies like Jiantou Energy, which forecasts a 253% increase in net profit [5] - Hydropower operations are expected to remain stable, with certain regions experiencing favorable water conditions leading to significant profit growth for companies like Guizhou Power and Gui Guan Electric [5] - The impact of wind, solar, and nuclear energy markets is expected to be significant, with challenges anticipated for new energy operators in 2026 due to market adjustments and declining electricity prices [5] - Waste-to-energy companies are projected to maintain high growth rates, driven by improved capacity utilization and heating scale [6] Summary by Sections Thermal Power - The performance of thermal power is closely linked to coal price fluctuations, with national and regional improvements expected in 2025 [5] - Companies like Huaneng International and Datang Power are expected to benefit from lower coal prices and improved operational efficiency [5] Hydropower - Hydropower is anticipated to have stable operations, with specific regions like Sichuan and Yunnan expected to see varying water levels affecting output [5] - Companies such as Gui Guan Electric and Qian Yuan Power are projected to experience significant profit growth due to favorable water conditions [5] New Energy - The introduction of policies is expected to accelerate the transition in the new energy sector, but operators may face challenges due to market adjustments and declining prices [5] - The cancellation of VAT refunds for wind energy operators is expected to impact profits more significantly in 2026 [5] Environmental Protection - Waste-to-energy companies are expected to continue their growth trajectory, with key contributors being capacity utilization and efficiency improvements [6] - Major waste-to-energy companies are projected to maintain profit growth, with specific forecasts for companies like Yongxing Co. and Hanlan Environment [6] Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include companies with both dividend yield and growth potential such as Gui Guan Electric, and those with low valuations like Jiazhen New Energy [6] - Attention is also drawn to companies with potential capacity increases and high dividend yields, such as Huaneng International and State Power Investment [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6][8]. Core Viewpoints - The company is recognized as a leading enterprise in high-end equipment manufacturing, focusing on advanced manufacturing and exploring new opportunities in the field [6][12]. - The company has a strong position in the high-end forming machine tool industry and intelligent sorting equipment, with significant market shares in various segments [9][12]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in traditional high-end equipment manufacturing and the emerging field of nuclear fusion equipment, which is expected to become a new pillar of development for the company [12][58]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the company's stock is 25.90 yuan, with a total market capitalization of approximately 12,805.33 million yuan [4]. Financial Data - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2,074 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.43%. However, it is expected to incur a net loss of 89 million yuan [7][25]. - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is -15 million yuan, 118 million yuan, and 190 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of -826.98, 108.35, and 67.44 [10][61]. Business Segments - High-end forming machine tools are expected to benefit from equipment upgrades and domestic substitution opportunities, with a focus on reducing reliance on imports [40][42]. - The intelligent sorting equipment segment is projected to maintain stable growth, driven by increasing demand across various industries, including agriculture and waste management [45][51]. - The nuclear fusion equipment segment is anticipated to become a significant growth area, with the company actively participating in key projects and collaborations [52][58]. Investment Logic - The company is well-positioned to leverage its capabilities in high-end equipment manufacturing and is expected to gradually overcome challenges in its traditional business segments while expanding into cutting-edge manufacturing [12][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the bond market may mainly rely on increased allocation by bank self - operations. The balance of China's bond market increased by 19.7 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025, and the incremental investment in self - operated bonds by the banking industry in the same period reached 14.3 trillion, accounting for 72.7% of the bond scale increment [2][31]. - Bank self - operated bond investment is mainly in interest - rate bonds, which have a significant impact on the pricing of interest - rate bonds. As of Q3 2025, the proportion of interest - rate bond holdings in bank self - operated bonds was 80.7% [36]. - The bond investment behavior of banks is mainly affected by three types of indicators: capital adequacy ratio requirements, liquidity regulatory indicators, and bank book interest rate risk indicators [3][45]. - Joint - stock banks are the main players in the secondary trading of interest - rate bonds, while the trading scale of large - state - owned banks and policy banks is relatively small. Since Q1 2023, the overall market trading activity has increased, especially significantly after 2025 [3][52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bank Self - Operated Financial Investment Composition, Scale Changes, and Structural Characteristics - **Composition and Scale Changes**: As of Q3 2025, the total financial investment scale of 42 listed banks was 101.5 trillion yuan. By statement account, the FVTPL account was 13.23 trillion yuan (13.0%), the FVOCI account was 29.87 trillion yuan (29.4%), and the AC account was 58.40 trillion yuan (57.5%). By asset category as of Q2 2025, bond investment was 79.08 trillion yuan (84.46%), equity investment was 0.86 trillion yuan (0.91%), and funds and other investments were 13.07 trillion yuan (13.96%). From Q4 2023 to Q3 2025, the investment scale of the FVOCI account increased significantly, mainly due to the growth of bond investment [8]. - **Structural Characteristics**: Credit bonds are mainly placed in the FVOCI account, and interest - rate bonds are mainly placed in the AC account. Among different types of banks, the proportion of the three accounts of large - state - owned banks and joint - stock banks is relatively stable, while the proportion of the AC category of city and rural commercial banks has decreased, and the FVOCI category of city commercial banks has increased, indicating a shift from allocation to trading thinking [2][14]. 3.2 Bond Market in 2025 - In 2025, the bond market may rely on increased allocation by bank self - operations. The government issued more bonds in 2025, and the weak credit demand led banks to significantly increase their bond investment. The year - on - year growth rate of the bond investment balance of various types of banks has increased significantly, and bond investment may become the main driving force for the expansion of bank asset scale [31][33]. 3.3 Bank Bond Investment Characteristics - **Investment Portfolio**: As of Q3 2025, bank self - operated bond holdings were 96.5 trillion yuan, mainly interest - rate bonds. Interest - rate bonds accounted for 80.7%, credit bonds accounted for 11.7%, negotiable certificates of deposit accounted for 5.7%, and other bonds accounted for 1.8%. Among interest - rate bonds, treasury bonds accounted for 33.3%, local government bonds accounted for 48.3%, and policy - bank bonds accounted for 17.8% [36]. - **Pricing Influence**: As of Q3 2025, bank self - operated bond holdings accounted for 48.21% of the total bond custody, having a significant impact on the bond market pricing, but the degree of influence varies by bond type. Bank self - operated interest - rate bond holdings accounted for 63.6% of the total interest - rate bond custody, having a significant impact on pricing [44]. 3.4 Bank Bond - Allocation Indicator Constraints - **Capital Adequacy Ratio Requirements**: The risk weights of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds are 0, the risk weights of local general bonds and special bonds are 10% and 20% respectively, and the risk weights of general corporate bonds and non - bank financial institution ordinary bonds are 75% - 100% [3][47]. - **Liquidity Regulatory Indicators**: The liquidity coverage ratio is relatively relevant to bank self - operated bond investment behavior. Treasury bonds are included in qualified high - quality liquid assets at market price, while credit bonds are given a discount coefficient according to credit ratings [47]. - **Bank Book Interest Rate Risk Indicators**: For large - state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, and Postal Savings Bank, when the maximum economic value change exceeds 15% of their Tier - 1 capital (ΔEVE > 15%), regulatory attention will be drawn [47]. 3.5 Bank Self - Operated Secondary Trading Characteristics - **Interest - Rate Bond Secondary Trading**: Joint - stock banks are the main players in the secondary trading of interest - rate bonds. The trading activity of the whole market has increased since Q1 2023, especially significantly after 2025. The trading scale of large - state - owned banks and policy banks is relatively small [3][52]. - **Credit Bond Secondary Trading**: The trading scale of credit bonds is relatively limited, and the single - quarter trading amount of bank self - operations is generally below 1 trillion yuan [54]. - **Ultra - Long - Term Interest - Rate Bond Secondary Trading**: The secondary trading of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds in the banking system shows the characteristics of "net reduction trend remains unchanged, and selling pressure converges marginally". Different types of banks have different trading behaviors [56].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The company has received approval for the world's first injectable recombinant collagen and hyaluronic acid composite solution, marking a significant milestone in its product offerings [8] - The company is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in revenue of 49.0% in 2023, followed by 57.2% in 2024, and a more moderate growth of 15.8% and 14.7% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [6][8] - The company has a strong pipeline in the aesthetic medicine sector, with two approved recombinant collagen products, which are anticipated to drive substantial revenue growth [8] Financial Summary - Closing price is HKD 35.40, with a market capitalization of HKD 37.91 billion [6][7] - Projected revenue for 2023 is RMB 3,524.14 million, increasing to RMB 7,428.23 million by 2027 [6] - Projected net profit for 2025-2027 is RMB 19.3 billion, RMB 22.6 billion, and RMB 25.4 billion respectively, with a notable decline of 6.3% in 2025 followed by growth in subsequent years [8] - The company maintains a low debt-to-asset ratio of 18.58% [7]

Group 1: Power Investment and Construction Industry - The core viewpoint is that power investment is entering an accelerated cycle during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with the State Grid's fixed asset investment expected to reach a historical high of 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan [2][5][6] - The investment plan will focus on strengthening the power grid platform, accelerating the construction of ultra-high voltage direct current transmission channels, enhancing distribution network construction, and solidifying digital infrastructure [5][6] - The State Grid's investment in 2023 was 538.1 billion yuan, projected to increase to 609.2 billion yuan in 2024, and exceed 650 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 5% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][5][6] Group 2: Recommendations for Key Companies - It is recommended to focus on leading state-owned enterprises with capabilities in power engineering contracting and deep involvement in grid and renewable energy construction, such as China Power Construction and China Energy Engineering [2][6] - These companies have a strong foundation in ultra-high voltage transmission projects, energy base construction, and renewable energy stations, making them core players in the State Grid's investment system [6] - The expected high intensity of grid investment combined with the continuous expansion of renewable energy installations will directly boost the order scale and project volume for these companies [6] Group 3: Agriculture and Livestock Industry - The pig farming sector has seen a 4.9% decline, primarily due to market sentiment and concerns over capacity reduction, with the number of pigs slaughtered in 2025 reaching 71.973 million, a 2.4% increase year-on-year [10][11] - The price of pigs has recently risen to 13.25 yuan/kg, indicating a recovery in market sentiment, while the price of piglets has also increased, suggesting a weakening of capacity reduction expectations [10][11] - The industry is undergoing a policy shift towards protecting farmers' rights and stimulating enterprise innovation, with a focus on high-quality development and cost-leading enterprises expected to enjoy excess profits [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction and decoration industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the power investment is entering an accelerated cycle during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with significant certainty in grid construction. The State Grid announced that its fixed asset investment is expected to reach a historical high of 4 trillion yuan from 2026 to 2030, a 40% increase compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [4][12] - The investment plan will focus on strengthening the grid platform, accelerating the construction of ultra-high voltage direct current transmission channels, enhancing distribution network construction in urban and rural areas, and solidifying digital infrastructure [4][12] - The report suggests focusing on leading state-owned enterprises in construction that have the capability for power engineering general contracting and are deeply involved in grid and renewable energy construction, such as China Power Construction and China Energy Engineering [5][13] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The report notes that the construction and decoration index increased by 0.27% during the week, with other professional engineering, steel structure, and engineering consulting services leading the gains [7][28] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.14% and 1.00%, respectively [7][28] Market Data Tracking - New special bonds issued this week amounted to 22.756 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 1246.90 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 268.64% [6][35] - Urban investment bonds issued this week totaled 53.179 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of -35.399 billion yuan [6][35] Company Dynamics - The report includes a summary of company performance announcements, indicating various companies are forecasting losses for 2025, with some companies like China Power Construction and China Nuclear Engineering signing significant contracts [18][19] - The report highlights that companies such as China Power Construction and China Energy Engineering are expected to benefit from the high intensity of grid investment and the continuous expansion of renewable energy installations [5][13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - Short-term recovery in pig prices is expected, while the breeding capacity remains high [3] - The industry is undergoing a significant policy transformation, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and encouraging innovation [6][17] - The high-quality development of the industry is essential, with cost-leading and farmer-inclusive companies likely to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [6][17] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine breeding sector saw a decline of 4.9%, primarily due to market sentiment and concerns over capacity reduction [5][16] - In 2025, the national pig output reached 71.973 million heads, an increase of 2.4% year-on-year, while the breeding sow inventory decreased by 2.9% [5][16] - As of January 18, 2026, pig prices rose to 13.25 CNY/kg, indicating a recovery in the industry [5][16] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector is experiencing a contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," with the price of broiler chickens at 3.65 CNY/kg, down 3.18% week-on-week [7][18] - The impact of avian influenza in France may lead to reduced imports of breeding chickens, potentially increasing prices for parent stock [7][18] - The industry is expected to see a continued advantage for leading companies due to integrated operations and contract farming [7][18] 3. Feed Industry - The prices of various aquatic products have shown recovery, with significant year-on-year increases for certain species [19][20] - Hai Da Group is recommended for its clear long-term growth path and plans to increase its dividend payout ratio [20] 4. Pet Industry - The competitive landscape in the pet food sector is becoming more concentrated, with leading brands outperforming mid-tier brands [10][21] - Despite concerns over Q4 2025 performance, the growth outlook for the pet industry remains strong, with domestic sales expected to continue growing [10][21] - Recommended companies include Zhongchong Co., which is positioned for growth in both domestic and international markets [11][21] 5. Agricultural Products - Domestic soybean meal prices fell by 2.1%, while corn prices increased by 0.8% due to declining inventories [26] - The egg market is showing strength, with prices rising by 1.4% [26] - The agricultural sector is viewed as having significant investment value due to its historical low valuations and the need to protect farmers' incomes [26]

Group 1: Emotional Economy and New Consumption Trends - The emotional economy in China is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan in market size by 2024, with a projected CAGR of 21% from 2025 to 2030 for the trendy toy economy [2][7] - The pet economy is anticipated to surpass 1 trillion yuan by 2027, driven by emotional attachment and companionship needs [2][9] - The fragrance economy is projected to grow at a CAGR of 15% from 2018 to 2024, with emotional benefits outweighing functional needs [2][10] Group 2: Egg Processing Industry - The egg processing market in China is expected to exceed 50 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7% [2][12] - The current processing ratio of eggs in China is only 5%-7%, compared to 50% in Japan, indicating significant growth potential [2][12] - Euf Egg Industry, a leading company in the egg processing sector, reported a revenue of 674 million yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, with a net profit of 66.13 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.77% [2][12] Group 3: Real Estate Market Developments - Recent policies include the extension of personal income tax incentives for housing purchases and a reduction in the down payment ratio for commercial properties to 30% [2][19] - In the week of January 10-16, new home transactions in 42 key cities increased by 6.3% compared to the previous week, while second-hand home transactions rose by 4.9% [2][18] - The real estate sector has seen a decline of 3.5% in the week, with significant fluctuations in individual stock performances [2][17] Group 4: Power Generation and Renewable Energy - China Resources Power reported a 7% year-on-year increase in electricity sales, reaching 226.8 billion kWh in 2025 [2][23] - The company expects significant growth in renewable energy installations, with a target of 10 GW for 2025, which will enhance its performance during industry downturns [2][26] - The anticipated decline in coal prices and the introduction of new market mechanisms may create challenges for the power sector in 2026 [2][25]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong potential for growth and investment opportunity [6]. Core Insights - The company, Honglu Steel Structure, is a leading player in the domestic steel structure manufacturing sector, established in 2002, with a focus on steel structure and supporting product manufacturing [7]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth driven by its scale advantages and ongoing smart transformation initiatives, with projected revenues of RMB 27.27 billion in 2026, reflecting a 20.15% year-on-year growth [6][8]. - Despite short-term profit pressures, the core business remains resilient, with revenue from steel structure operations consistently accounting for over 90% since 2018 [7]. - The company has increased its cash dividend payout ratio from 15% to 30%, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns and a solid financial position [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 23.54 billion in 2023, RMB 21.51 billion in 2024, RMB 22.69 billion in 2025, RMB 27.27 billion in 2026, and RMB 29.45 billion in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 18.60%, -8.60%, 5.48%, 20.15%, and 8.01% respectively [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 1.18 billion in 2023, RMB 772 million in 2024, RMB 684 million in 2025, RMB 829 million in 2026, and RMB 988 million in 2027, with growth rates of 1.43%, -34.51%, -11.39%, 21.13%, and 19.24% respectively [6]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 12.83% in 2023, declining to 8.03% in 2024, and then gradually improving to 8.74% by 2027 [6]. Market Position and Strategy - Honglu Steel Structure has a clear growth path, with a production capacity of 5.2 million tons by the end of 2024 and a capacity utilization rate of 86.75% [7]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, leveraging strong relationships with core clients, which account for 30.61% of revenue from the top five clients in 2024 [7]. - The report highlights the increasing penetration of steel structures in various construction sectors, with a projected growth in processing volume from 89 million tons in 2020 to 109 million tons in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.20% [7].