证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 04 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年08月04日 华源晨会精粹 20250804 固定收益 税收新规对债券定价的影响多大？——国债等利息收入增值税新规点评： 8 月 8 日之后新发的政府债券及金融债利息收入将恢复征收增值税。政府债券及金融 债利息收入此前免增值税。税收新规对商业银行负债成本及短期业绩影响较小。税 收新规预计将影响 8 月 8 号之后新发的政府债券及金融债定价，政府债券及金融债 的新老券或将出现利差。税收新规或将使得企业债券收益率与新发的金融债收益率 更接近。我们认为，债市做多依然是当前阻力最小的方向，8 月份 10Y 国债收益率 可能逐步回到 1.65%左右，5Y 国股二级到 1.9%以下。随着美与欧日韩等达成贸易 协议，中美贸易可能再起摩擦。此外，反内卷降温，物价增长或偏弱，股市转入震 荡，社融增速或将回落，7 月 PMI 回落，当前债市利空较少。税收新规相对提升了 政府债券及金融债老券的稀缺性，或促使银行自营等抢配政府债券及金融债老券， 阶段性压低收益率。 风险提示：银行及理财投资基金监管 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the Ideal i8 has received positive feedback regarding its product strength, with potential orders expected to gradually increase [4][8] - The sales strategy of Ideal is noted to be conservative, which may contribute to a significant portion of potential customers remaining in a wait-and-see state [5][17] - The report emphasizes the potential for the Ideal i8 to attract a broader customer base, including single individuals and traditional vehicle owners considering electric options [18][20] Summary by Sections 1. Ideal i8 Product Feedback - The Ideal i8, launched on July 29, is priced between 321,800 to 369,800 yuan, and has received favorable feedback from potential users regarding its appearance, space, range, and configuration [5][8] - A survey of 401 potential customers revealed that 49% are still in a wait-and-see mode, with only 7% having placed orders, indicating a cautious approach to purchasing [19] - The i8's range of 670/720 km and energy consumption of 14.6/14.8 kWh per 100 km are highlighted as competitive advantages [28] 1.1. Product Strength Recognition - Over 90% of respondents do not consider the i8's appearance unattractive, and more than 70% believe its electric range is sufficient [9][13] - The survey indicates that more than 50% of users are comfortable with the absence of a front trunk, and most find the rear trunk adequate [11][12] 1.2. Customer Observation State - The report notes that 41% of potential users are not considering purchasing the i8, while 49% are contemplating but have not yet committed [19] - The conservative sales strategy, including the lack of aggressive discounts or financing options, is suggested as a reason for the observed customer hesitation [16][17] 1.3. Expanding Customer Demographics - The survey indicates that nearly 25% of potential i8 customers are single, suggesting a widening demographic for the vehicle [20][21] - A significant portion of potential customers currently own traditional fuel vehicles and are showing interest in switching to electric models [18][22] 1.4. Alternative Vehicle Considerations - If not purchasing the i8, nearly 50% of potential customers would consider other electric models rather than hybrid or traditional fuel vehicles [24][26] - The report identifies that potential customers are comparing the i8 with models such as NIO ES8 and other Ideal models, indicating competitive positioning in the market [25][27]

固收专题报告 2025 年 08 月 04 日 长钱长投:企业年金的过去、现在与未来 中国养老金专题 投资要点: 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC: S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 联系人 马赫 mahe@huayuanstock.com 上长周期考核机制,弱化短期波动影响,提升权益资产配置至20%-30%,年均收益 或增至 6%-7%。三支柱整合:或推动不同支柱账户互通（如允许企业年金转入个人 养老金账户）,优化税负,增强长期的吸引力。未来十年,随着覆盖面或扩大、权 益配置优化和三支柱整合,企业年金有望使中小企业员工退休收入替代率提升,成 为应对老龄化挑战的关键支撑。 风险提示。经济增长超预期导致债市调整的风险;股市可能大幅走强,对债市情绪 A 有冲击;测算的收益可能与实际情况存在差异。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 A 规模持续扩张但覆盖广度不足,结构性矛盾突出。截至 25年 Q1,企业年金积累基 金规模达 3.73 万亿元,参与职工 3291 万人(较 2006 年末增长超 2 倍)。然而参 与率（企业年金参加职工/劳动年龄人口(15-64 ...

Policy Impact - The "Two New" policy has effectively promoted consumption and investment, driving related product sales exceeding 1.6 trillion yuan in 2025[2] - The scope of the old-for-new policy has expanded in 2025, with a total sales amount from five categories (automobiles, home appliances, digital products, home decoration, and electric bicycles) surpassing 1.6 trillion yuan by June 2025, exceeding the 2024 sales figures[5] Market Performance - The median market value change for consumer service stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange was -2.21% from July 28 to August 1, 2025, with only 22% of companies experiencing an increase[2] - The total market capitalization of consumer service companies decreased from 123.5 billion yuan to 120.6 billion yuan during the same period[41] Sector Analysis - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for consumer service stocks rose from 52.1X to 53.5X[36] - The median P/E ratio for the broader consumer sector decreased from 72.9X to 72.6X, indicating a slight contraction in valuation[39] Company Highlights - Taihu Snow reported a 70% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching approximately 280.82 million yuan, a 17.75% increase[2] - A total of 63 companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange are identified as beneficiaries of the "Two New" policy, with 10 in the equipment update category and 53 in the old-for-new category[29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's pension system is undergoing profound changes due to the acceleration of population aging. The enterprise annuity, as an important part of the second - pillar pension, has significant development potential. In the future, through measures such as expanding coverage, optimizing equity allocation, and integrating the three - pillar pension system, it is expected to enhance the retirement income replacement rate of employees in small and medium - sized enterprises and become a key support in addressing the challenges of aging [1]. - The enterprise annuity is transitioning from "short - term investment of long - term funds" to "long - term investment of long - term funds". With the implementation of the "automatic enrollment + voluntary withdrawal" mechanism, the establishment of a long - term assessment mechanism, and the integration of the three - pillar pension system, the enterprise annuity's role in the pension system will be further strengthened [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Historical Evolution - **Non - marketization to Marketization**: From 1991 - 2004, it was the non - marketization operation stage, including the exploration period (1991 - 2000) and the pilot transformation period (2000 - 2004). After 2004, it entered the market operation stage, with the rapid development period from 2007 - 2016 and the mature deepening period from 2017 to the present. During this process, policy dividends continuously promoted scale expansion, but there were also deep - seated contradictions such as system design and investment performance fluctuations [8][9][10]. - **Enterprise Annuity Management Institutions**: The market shows characteristics of high concentration and professional division of labor. There are four types of management institutions, with different numbers and types of institutions in each category. The insurance - based institutions dominate the trustee market, and the public - offering fund companies play an important role in the investment management field [16]. - **Enterprise Annuity Plans and Pension Products**: There are single plans and collective plans. Single plans are suitable for large enterprises, while collective plans have advantages such as high efficiency and low cost. Pension products have gradually expanded their investment scope over the years [39][41][44]. 3.2 Current Situation of Enterprise Annuity - **Coverage and Regional Characteristics**: The number of participating employees in enterprise annuities is increasing, but the coverage rate has not improved significantly. The participation rate is far lower than that of OECD countries. In terms of regional distribution, central enterprises and economically developed regions dominate [45][50]. - **Investment Performance**: The overall performance of enterprise annuities has been growing steadily in the long - term. In the past three years (2022Q1 - 2025Q1), the cumulative return reached 7.46%. Asset allocation is significantly differentiated, with fixed - income products performing better in the past three years. The performance also varies between different plans and investment managers [55][65][71]. - **Different Investment Managers**: The market shows a trend of strengthening the leading position of top - tier institutions. The assessment mechanism is shifting towards long - term orientation. Different types of institutions have different investment capabilities in equity and fixed - income products [71][72]. - **Annuity Pension Products**: As of 2025Q1, there are 649 registered pension products and 573 actually operating products. The top three in terms of the number of actually operating products are common stock - type, hybrid, and common fixed - income products [75]. 3.3 Future Development of Enterprise Annuity - **Coverage Expansion**: The "automatic enrollment + voluntary withdrawal" mechanism may be promoted to reduce the participation threshold for small and medium - sized enterprises and expand the coverage [1][82]. - **Head - Concentration of Institutions**: The "Matthew effect" in the trustee and investment management markets may intensify, with insurance - based institutions continuing to dominate, and the proportion of large state - owned banks may increase [82]. - **Structural Adjustment of Investment Management**: There may be a two - way evolution in the investment management of single and collective plans. The long - term assessment mechanism may be implemented soon, and the equity allocation ratio may increase [83].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on improving free cash flow and expected dividend increases [5][8]. Core Views - The company is a state-owned water utility in Tianjin, with over 20 years of industry experience, primarily engaged in wastewater treatment, recycled water supply, and tap water supply. The wastewater treatment segment is expected to contribute nearly 80% of revenue and gross profit in 2024 [7][16]. - The company has shown stable profitability with a net profit margin around 17% and a return on equity (ROE) between 8% and 10% from 2019 to 2024. The gross margin has been steadily increasing [19][21]. - Free cash flow turned positive in 2024, with expectations for continued improvement due to reduced capital expenditures and enhanced collection of receivables [10][21]. - The company has a significant potential for dividend increases, with a current dividend payout ratio around 30%, which is lower than industry peers [10][11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of August 1, 2025, the closing price is 5.92 CNY, with a total market capitalization of approximately 9,296.88 million CNY [3]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 48.64 billion CNY, 49.04 billion CNY, and 50.35 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.8%, 0.8%, and 2.7% respectively. Net profit estimates are 9.58 billion CNY, 9.95 billion CNY, and 10.27 billion CNY, with growth rates of 18.65%, 3.89%, and 3.19% respectively [6][40]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected at 10, 9, and 9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, which is significantly lower than the industry average P/E of 17 [8][40]. Investment Logic - The company has a strong market position in wastewater treatment, with a stable revenue stream and improving margins. The wastewater treatment price has increased from 1.7 CNY/ton to 1.92 CNY/ton from 2021 to 2024, reflecting a consistent upward trend [10][33]. - The company is expected to benefit from the cessation of goodwill impairment losses starting in 2025, which could positively impact net profit by approximately 1.5 billion CNY [11][38]. Key Assumptions - The report assumes new wastewater treatment capacity additions of 9, 5.5, and 6 thousand tons per day for 2025-2027, with a consistent treatment price of 1.92 CNY/ton [9][41].

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 03 日 关注税收新规后的信用价值提升 ——信用分析周报（2025/7/28-2025/8/1） 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 赵孟田 SAC：S1350525070004 zhaomengtian@huayuanstock.com 投资要点： 本周（7/28-8/1）市场概览： 1）一级市场：本周传统信用债发行量、偿还量、净融资额环比上周均大幅减少；资 产支持证券净融资额环比上周减少 465 亿元；本周产业债、城投债加权平均发行利 率均有所上行，金融债发行成本有不同程度下降。 联系人 2）二级市场：本周信用债成交量环比上周减少 738 亿元；换手率方面，本周信用债 换手率较上周涨跌互现，资产支持证券换手率较上周有所回升。本周不同期限不同 评级的信用债收益率大多下行，10Y 以上 AAA+信用债收益率小幅上升。总体来看， 本周不同行业不同评级的信用利差有涨有跌，但波动幅度均不超过 5BP。具体来看， 本周 AA 银行、AA+采掘和非银金融、AAA ...

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Positive (Maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide has entered an upward channel, with a recent increase of 10.97% to 531,000 CNY/ton. Meanwhile, dysprosium oxide has decreased by 2.38% to 1,640,000 CNY/ton, and terbium oxide has dropped by 0.97% to 7,110,000 CNY/ton. The positive sentiment is driven by supply constraints and strong demand for end-use magnetic materials [3][4][12]. - The molybdenum market is experiencing a price increase, with molybdenum concentrate prices rising by 7.53% to 4,285 CNY/ton. However, downstream demand is weak, leading to expectations of price fluctuations [4][24]. - Tungsten prices have reached a historical high due to supply reductions and price adjustments in long-term contracts, with black tungsten concentrate prices increasing by 7.82% to 193,000 CNY/ton [4][34]. - The tin market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with SHFE tin prices rising by 0.15% to 265,000 CNY/ton, while LME tin prices increased by 0.08% to 33,185 USD/ton [4][40]. - Antimony prices are experiencing fluctuations, with antimony ingot prices decreasing by 1.32% to 187,500 CNY/ton, attributed to low smelting output and tight raw material supply [4][56]. - The report emphasizes the accelerating commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion materials, with significant investments from state-owned enterprises, indicating a promising outlook for upstream materials [6]. Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Recent price movements show praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices increased by 10.97% to 531,000 CNY/ton, while dysprosium and terbium prices decreased [12][4]. Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices rose by 7.53% to 4,285 CNY/ton, with expectations of price stabilization due to weak downstream demand [24][4]. Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices increased by 7.82% to 193,000 CNY/ton, driven by supply constraints and price adjustments in long-term contracts [34][4]. Tin - SHFE tin prices rose by 0.15% to 265,000 CNY/ton, while LME tin prices increased by 0.08% to 33,185 USD/ton, reflecting a supply-demand imbalance [40][4]. Antimony - Antimony ingot prices decreased by 1.32% to 187,500 CNY/ton, influenced by low smelting output and tight raw material supply [56][4]. Nuclear Fusion Materials - The commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion is accelerating, with significant investments indicating a positive outlook for upstream materials [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of the recent 232 tariffs on copper, which do not include refined copper, leading to a significant drop in US copper prices. The week saw a decline in copper prices with LME copper down 2.51%, SHFE copper down 1.07%, and US copper down 23.45% [5][10]. - The report emphasizes the recovery in downstream copper demand, with the copper rod operating rate increasing by 2.36 percentage points to 71.73% [5]. - The report suggests monitoring the supply disruptions in Chile and the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in September [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Important macroeconomic information includes lower-than-expected job vacancies in the US and mixed employment data, indicating a cautious economic outlook [9]. - The non-ferrous metals sector underperformed, with the Shenwan non-ferrous index down 4.62%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.68 percentage points [12]. 2. Industrial Metals Copper - LME copper prices fell by 2.51%, while SHFE copper prices decreased by 1.07%. LME copper inventory increased by 10.33% [26]. - The report notes a copper smelting profit of -2408 CNY/ton, indicating a narrowing loss [26]. Aluminum - LME aluminum prices dropped by 4.12%, and SHFE aluminum prices fell by 1.33%. The report indicates a decrease in aluminum smelting profit to 4116 CNY/ton, down 7.71% [37]. Lead and Zinc - LME lead prices decreased by 3.30%, and SHFE lead prices fell by 1.48%. LME zinc prices dropped by 4.59%, while SHFE zinc prices decreased by 2.19% [52]. - The report highlights a smelting profit of 346 CNY/ton for zinc, with mining profits down 6.47% to 6884 CNY/ton [52]. Tin and Nickel - LME tin prices fell by 5.10%, and SHFE tin prices decreased by 2.47%. LME nickel prices dropped by 4.08%, while SHFE nickel prices fell by 2.83% [66]. 3. Energy Metals Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices decreased by 2.13% to 71350 CNY/ton, while lithium hydroxide prices increased by 4.04% to 65670 CNY/ton [83]. - The report indicates a smelting profit of 862 CNY/ton for lithium from spodumene, while the profit from lithium from lepidolite was -4608 CNY/ton [83]. Cobalt - Domestic cobalt prices surged by 11.29% to 276000 CNY/ton, with significant increases in cobalt smelting profits [96]. 4. Market Performance - The report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of various non-ferrous metal stocks, highlighting the top gainers and losers in the market [12]. 5. Valuation Changes - The report notes that the PE_TTM for the non-ferrous sector is 20.54, with a decrease of 0.88, while the PB_LF is 2.37, down 0.11 [21].

税收新规对债券定价的影响多大？ 证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 03 日 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 赵孟田 SAC：S1350525070004 zhaomengtian@huayuanstock.com ——国债等利息收入增值税新规点评 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 8 月 8 日之后新发的政府债券及金融债利息收入将恢复征收增值税。投资人在债券 投资过程中面临的税种主要包括增值税、所得税两类，应税项目主要分为债券转让 差价收入、持有期间利息收入。本次政策调整为对 2025 年 8 月 8 号之后新发的政 府债券及金融债利息收入恢复征收增值税，新老划断，且不涉及所得税征收政策的 变更，也不涉及债券转让收入的税收政策变更。 联系人 政府债券及金融债利息收入此前免增值税。本次税收新规前，一般金融机构在金融 商品持有期间（含到期）利息收入按 6%税率缴纳增值税，资管产品、公募基金对于 利息收入适用简易计税方法，按照 3%的税率缴纳增值税。国债、地方政府债、 ...