·基本面催化逻辑：全球粮价已触底，2026年易涨难跌。 2023年以来全球粮食持续去库，玉米库存消费比创超10年新低，大豆库存消费比处于过去10年50%分位；供应端 受新冠疫情后低价拖累已边际趋紧，2026年玉米和大豆饲用、工业需求均向好，但仅靠自身供应基本面缺乏足够 上行催化，需外部因素拉动。 ·宏观面催化逻辑：美元降息周期带动大宗商品流动性宽松，推升价格预期，当前大宗商品进入牛市初期，市场对 农 ·基本面催化逻辑：全球粮价已触底，2026年易涨难跌。 2023年以来全球粮食持续去库，玉米库存消费比创超10年新低，大豆库存消费比处于过去10年50%分位；供应端 受新冠疫情后低价拖累已边际趋紧，2026年玉米和大豆饲用、工业需求均向好，但仅靠自身供应基本面缺乏足够 上行催化，需外部因素拉动。 ·宏观面催化逻辑：美元降息周期带动大宗商品流动性宽松，推升价格预期，当前大宗商品进入牛市初期，市场对 农产品价格预期逐步抬升。 油价与粮价相关性极强，可通过农业机械、农化等成本端传导，以及燃料乙醇转化需求拉动影响粮价；当前油价 已开启底部反弹，叠加局势波动、OPEC+增产退坡推升上行预期，为粮价上行提供强劲催化。 ·资金 ...

精测电子：扭亏为盈，半导体量测进入收获期。 2025年预计归母净利8，000~9，000万元，同比扭亏；扣非净利2，166~3，166万元，较24年大幅改善。 机械行业业绩预告要点 公司业绩反转主要系：1）半导体量测业绩兑现：膜厚、OCD等核心产品国内领先，主力产品已完成7nm先进制程 交付验收，先进制程订单成为核心驱动力。 2）显示业务稳步复苏：受益于G8.6代线及OL 机械行业业绩预告要点 精测电子：扭亏为盈，半导体量测进入收获期。 2025年预计归母净利8，000~9，000万元，同比扭亏；扣非净利2，166~3，166万元，较24年大幅改善。 公司业绩反转主要系：1）半导体量测业绩兑现：膜厚、OCD等核心产品国内领先，主力产品已完成7nm先进制程 交付验收，先进制程订单成为核心驱动力。 2）显示业务稳步复苏：受益于G8.6代线及OLED投入增加，订单快速增长，新型显示业务毛利率提升明显。 3）结构优化与提效：前期研发投入转化规模效应，同时新能源业务持续减亏，经营质量发生质变。 公司作为前道量测领军，已步入盈利上升通道。 奥比中光：扭亏为盈，3D视觉迎来爆发拐点。 2025年预计实现营收9.40亿元（+ ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the AI industry, particularly the token consumption related to AI models and applications, which is deemed essential for the entire AI ecosystem's sustainability [1][2]. Key Points 1. **Token Consumption as a Lifeline**: - AI large model companies and related application firms are currently unable to achieve positive operating cash flow. OpenAI is projected to reach positive cash flow around 2030. Thus, both AI model and application layers rely on fundraising cash flow to subsidize investment and operating cash flows. This dependency on external capital is expected to continue for over three years [1][2]. 2. **Token as a Deflationary Asset**: - Since the launch of ChatGPT by OpenAI in 2022, the cost of tokens has decreased by 99%. The rapid increase in token usage is crucial to offset the deflation in token prices, thereby maintaining high revenue growth, which is essential for attracting continuous external investment in AI [1][2]. 3. **Historical Context of Investment Cycles**: - Drawing parallels with the dot-com bubble, the early 2000s saw internet usage and bandwidth consumption still growing despite the bubble's burst. The collapse was not due to a significant valuation drop but rather a loss of investor confidence, leading to the failure of companies unable to achieve positive cash flow. The Dow Jones Internet Index experienced a maximum decline of over 95% [2]. 4. **Recent Token Consumption Data**: - In the past week, token consumption reached 7.5 trillion, a slight decrease of 2% week-over-week but a significant increase of 987% year-over-year. Google remains dominant with consumption rising from 1.67 trillion to 1.92 trillion, capturing over 25% market share. Anthropic holds the second position, while x-ai has surged to third place with a consumption of 996 billion, surpassing OpenAI [2][3]. 5. **Emerging Players**: - Xiaomi entered the top ranks with a consumption of 587 billion, while MistralAI also made it into the top ten. Other companies like DeepSeek, Tongyi Qianwen, and Z-AI maintained stable rankings [3]. Investment Recommendations - The team continues to recommend investments in the following sectors based on anticipated growth in token consumption and the performance of the AIDC industry chain: - **Energy Supply Chain**: Companies such as Jerry Holdings, Yingliu Co., Wanzhe Co., Liande Co., Boying Special Welding, Longda Co., and Changbao Co. [3]. - **Liquid Cooling Industry**: Companies including Invec, Hongsheng Co., World Co., Jieban Technology, Hanzhong Precision, and Ice Wheel Environment [3].

Industry and Company Analysis Summary Industry Overview Lithium Battery and Energy Storage - The national capacity electricity price policy has been implemented, expected to increase the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for energy storage by over 3% [1] - In February, lithium battery production is projected to decrease by over 10%, indicating a strong production season despite being traditionally off-peak [1] - Sodium batteries are undergoing winter tests with multiple automotive companies, with expectations for mass shipments in Q2 [1] Key Segments Ranking - The preferred segments in the energy storage industry are ranked as follows: - Energy storage cells (Penghui) - Iron lithium cathodes - Energy storage integration (Haibo) - Separators (Enjie) - Copper and aluminum foils (Nord and Dingsheng) [1] Sodium Battery Sector - The lithium carbonate market is expected to undergo adjustments, with a new upward trend anticipated next week, maintaining a long-term positive outlook [2] - Recent price drops are not due to fundamental factors; downstream procurement has increased, with significant spot transactions indicating acceptance of the 150,000 yuan price for lithium [2] - February is expected to see price increases due to strong battery production and ongoing maintenance at lithium salt plants [2] Wind Power Sector - Recent earnings forecasts in the wind power sector have largely fallen short of expectations, primarily due to a decline in Q4 shipments and year-end impairments [2] - The main machine segment has cleared out low-priced orders, indicating a confirmed bottom, with expectations for overall gross margin recovery starting in Q1 2026 [2] - Recommended stocks in this sector include Jinlei Co., Daikin Heavy Industries, and major machine manufacturers (Goldwind, SANY, Yunda, Mingyang) [2] Photovoltaic Sector - Positive outlook for space photovoltaic technology and silver-free solutions [2] - SpaceX has applied to the FCC to deploy 1 million satellites, enhancing the logic behind space photovoltaic initiatives [2] - High silver prices and technological breakthroughs have led to a reduction in costs for copper-based batteries by an average of 0.15 yuan/W, indicating a potential explosion in silver-free industrialization [2] AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) Sector - A new round of bidding is emerging in the domestic supply chain [2] - ByteDance is shifting its bidding towards high-voltage direct current solutions, while NVIDIA's GB300 liquid cooling certification is tightening, potentially redirecting investments towards core components and ASIC overflow [2] - The production capacity of Yingwei QD is expected to increase by 20 times in Q1, closely integrating with the NVIDIA ecosystem [2]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **SaaS (Software as a Service)** industry, particularly focusing on the impact of AI advancements on software companies in both the US and China. - The emergence of **MoltBook**, an AI Agent social network developed from **Clawdbot**, is highlighted as a significant development in the industry. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Launch of MoltBook**: - On January 28, MoltBook was launched, attracting over **150,000 AI Agents** and creating more than **12,000 submolt communities** within a few days, indicating rapid adoption and engagement in the AI Agent ecosystem [1][1][1]. 2. **Decline in US SaaS Sector**: - The US SaaS sector experienced a significant downturn, with companies like **Unity** leading the decline. Previous adjustments in stock prices were noted for **SAP**, **ServiceNow**, and **Salesforce**. Concerns were raised about "large models consuming software and SaaS" [1][1][1]. 3. **Impact of AI on Software Companies**: - The US software industry has successfully transitioned to SaaS over the past decade, focusing on process management and collaboration. However, the simplicity of these systems makes them vulnerable to disruption by AI Agents [1][1][1]. 4. **Chinese SaaS Landscape**: - In China, major internet companies dominate the SaaS market (e.g., **Feishu**, **DingTalk**), while listed software firms focus on vertical industry solutions and primarily offer private deployments. This suggests that the impact of AI models and Agent startups on Chinese software companies will be delayed and less severe compared to the US [2][2][2]. 5. **Complexity of Core Systems**: - The complexity and specialization of core systems across industries are expected to remain resilient against disruption by Agents in the short term. Companies are encouraged to accelerate their transformation by integrating Agent-related technologies to meet future AI demands [3][3][3]. 6. **Opportunities in Computing and Storage**: - The demand for computing and storage solutions is projected to grow positively, with opportunities in AI databases and storage being particularly promising. Companies in CPU, cloud computing, and AI database sectors are recommended for investment [4][4][4]. 7. **Investment Recommendations**: - Suggested companies for investment include: - **StarRing Technology** in the database sector - **Haiguang Information** and **Hesheng New Materials** in the CPU sector - **Runjian Co.**, **Beijing Online**, **UCloud**, and others in the computing service sector - **Sangfor Technologies**, **Pinggao Group**, and others in the private cloud sector - **Inspur Information** and **Unisplendour** in the server sector [5][5][5]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The security risks associated with the rise of Agents are acknowledged, emphasizing the need for comprehensive solutions to address these challenges [4][4][4].

此外，东航税前利润总额为2-3亿元，受所得税费用影响导致东航税后利润出现亏损：受21年经营利润亏损影 响，2021年三大航分别确认较大额度的未经抵消的递延所得税资产（未弥补税务亏损），根据报表披露21年国航/ 东航/南航确认额度分别为29.8/46.2/38.1亿元，根据税法约定，可抵扣暂时性差异形成的递延所得税资产要求在未 来5个纳税年度内能产生足够的应纳税所得额用以抵扣，意味着对于三大航而言需要在26年之前确认同等额度的所 得税费用，导致大航不得不在25年提前确认部分所得税费用，使得税后利润由正转负。 预计三大航均在25年提前确认15亿上下的所得税费用。 2、近期航空板块调整幅度较大，主要由于三方面原因：1）递延所得税问题逐步被市场认识，市场下修对2025年 业绩预期；2）地缘战争预期升温，油价同比大幅上涨，压制板块股价；3）中日航线摩擦持续，边际改善有限。 随着业绩预告最后一重利空落地，我们认为短期来看股价里面隐含的悲观预期得到了充分的释放；25年税后盈利 低于预期不改经营利润显著改善的趋势，预计26年开始行业的经营利润仍有望持续且显著的改善。 大航业绩预告落地，经营改善确认周期拐点 1、事件点评：三大 ...

Summary of Earnings Call Records Companies and Industries Involved - **Meta**: Technology and social media company - **Microsoft**: Technology company focusing on cloud services and AI - **Corning**: Technology company specializing in glass and ceramics, particularly in optical fibers - **Silicon Photonics**: Emerging technology in optical communication - **Liquid Cooling**: Technology related to cooling systems in data centers and electronics Key Points and Arguments Meta - **Q4 2025 Revenue**: Reported revenue of $59.893 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $58.42 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 24% [1] - **Q1 2026 Revenue Guidance**: Expected revenue between $53.5 billion and $56.5 billion, also above analyst expectations of $51.27 billion [1][1] Microsoft - **Q2 FY2026 Revenue**: Achieved revenue of $81.273 billion, a 17% year-over-year increase, driven by intelligent cloud services [2] - **Intelligent Cloud Revenue**: Revenue from the intelligent cloud segment grew by 26% to $51.5 billion, marking a significant milestone of surpassing $50 billion [2] - **Capital Expenditure**: Capital expenditure reached $37.5 billion, a 66% increase year-over-year, primarily invested in GPU and CPU technologies to meet AI and cloud demands [2][2] Corning - **Q4 2025 Core Sales**: Reported core sales of $4.41 billion, a 14% year-over-year increase, with core earnings per share of $0.72, up 26% [4] - **Q1 2026 Guidance**: Management anticipates a further acceleration in growth, with core sales expected to increase by approximately 15%, reaching between $4.2 billion and $4.3 billion [4] Investment Opportunities - **Silicon Photonics**: Recommended stocks include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Technology, and Yuanjie Technology [3] - **Liquid Cooling**: Recommended stock is Invec, recognized as a leader in the liquid cooling supply chain [2] - **Optical Fiber**: Recommended stocks include Hengtong Optic-Electric and Zhongtian Technology, with beneficiaries such as Changfei Optical Fiber and Yongding Co. [5] Additional Important Content - **Capital Expenditure Trends**: Meta's capital expenditure for Q4 2025 was $22.14 billion, with a total of $72.22 billion for the year, exceeding initial guidance of $60-65 billion [2] - **Market Outlook**: The overall sentiment in the technology sector remains optimistic, particularly in AI-driven applications and optical communication technologies, indicating potential growth and investment opportunities in these areas [1][2][4]

【天风电新】安靠智电交流后更新：上修26年变压器出海订单预期-0201 公司上周发布业绩预减后股价调整较多，在与公司交流后我们的观点：业绩最差时点已过，上修26年变压器出海 预期至收入5亿元、利润1亿元，调整后#看好公司作为变压器出北美稀缺标的的投资价值。 变压器出海 26年订单目标上修至约7亿元，预计2/3在26年确收、净利率20%。 【天风电新】安靠智电交流后更新：上修26年变压器出海订单预期-0201 公司上周发布业绩预减后股价调整较多，在与公司交流后我们的观点：业绩最差时点已过，上修26年变压器出海 预期至收入5亿元、利润1亿元，调整后#看好公司作为变压器出北美稀缺标的的投资价值。 北美电力公司：明确后续参与230KV及以上变压器框采、春节后定份额，预计年框采金额3000万美元。 2、非美地区：包括预计南美、欧洲、土耳其各1亿元。 3、变压器工厂产能：以全部生产35KV变压器计算年产值8-10亿元，电压等级越高、产值对应可上修。 扩产1年左右周期，26H1订单顺利将开始扩产，短期国内订单考虑外协。 主业 25年业绩预减主要受计提减值约8000万元影响（回款后冲回），加回后净利润1.5亿元+；研发费用同 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the European offshore wind industry, highlighting the need for a reevaluation of valuations due to previously pessimistic market expectations and the unique attributes of certain companies [1][2]. Key Points Market Sentiment and Valuation Adjustments - The market has previously held overly pessimistic views regarding the growth potential of the European offshore wind sector, failing to recognize the unique characteristics of companies like Daikin Heavy Industries [1][2]. - Recent developments, such as the UK AR7 auction results, have led to an upward revision of installation forecasts for offshore wind, indicating a more positive outlook for the industry [2]. Positive Developments in Installation Forecasts - The UK AR7 auction exceeded expectations with a capacity of 8.4 GW, compared to prior estimates of 5-6 GW, prompting an increase in projected installation volumes for 2028 and 2029 [2]. - The forecast for annual installations in Europe has been adjusted to 9.1 GW for 2028 and 10 GW for 2029, reflecting a more optimistic growth trajectory [2]. Long-term Goals and Regional Development - The "Hamburg Declaration" from ten European countries reaffirms the goal of achieving 300 GW of offshore wind capacity in the North Sea by 2050, with a target of over 30 GW by the end of 2025 [2]. - The potential for additional development exists in other regions such as the Baltic Sea, Mediterranean, Atlantic coast, and Black Sea, suggesting significant future growth opportunities [2]. Company-Specific Insights - Daikin Heavy Industries is noted for its superior valuation potential, which is currently not reflected in its market price, with a PE ratio of 25X for 2026, compared to lower valuations for competitors [3]. - Cadeler, a leader in offshore wind installation, is also undervalued with a PE ratio of only 5-6X for 2026, despite expanding its business from turbine installation to foundation installation and transportation [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of recognizing the alpha attributes of these companies, which have not been adequately priced into the market [3]. Recommendations - Continued optimism for the European offshore wind sector is expressed, with specific recommendations to focus on companies such as Daikin Heavy Industries, Cadeler, and others involved in offshore wind infrastructure [3].

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Edible Mushroom Industry and Cordyceps Sinensis (冬虫夏草) - **Market Growth**: The edible mushroom industry is experiencing a continuous growth trend, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.0% from 2019 to 2024 according to the China Edible Mushroom Association [1] Key Insights on Cordyceps Sinensis - **Demand and Supply Dynamics**: There is a sustained increase in demand for Cordyceps Sinensis, with product forms becoming more diverse. Conversely, the supply of wild Cordyceps is declining, while large-scale artificial cultivation is advancing. This may lead to long-term price increases or strong fluctuations [1] - **Policy Support**: Government policies are encouraging the research and cultivation of endangered medicinal materials and the development of substitutes. Continuous technological advancements in artificial cultivation are being made [1] - **Company Initiatives**: Several companies are strategically positioning themselves in the market. For instance, Dongyangguang has an annual production capacity exceeding 60 tons, while Zhongxing Junye is developing factory-based cultivation projects, showing positive profit trends. Xue Rong Biological is accumulating technology for artificial cultivation of Cordyceps Sinensis [1] Insights on the Edible Mushroom Industry - **Market Structure**: The industry is optimizing its market structure, with production capacity returning to rational levels. Leading companies like Zhongxing Junye maintain over 40% market share and a gross margin exceeding 30% [5] - **Price Stabilization**: Prices for various mushroom types, including Enoki mushrooms and Pleurotus eryngii, are stabilizing at the bottom due to supply adjustments by leading companies like Xue Rong Biological and Zhongxing Junye, which are reducing production capacity to alleviate supply pressure [2][3][7] - **Profitability**: The profitability of the double mushroom segment remains stable, supported by sufficient supply and demand driven by the restaurant sector [6][3] Investment Recommendations - **Edible Mushroom Sector**: As companies reduce capital expenditures and production capacity, supply pressure is expected to ease, leading to potential price stabilization and upward movement. Leading enterprises are positioned to improve profitability due to their advantages in scale, technology, and management [8] - **Cordyceps Sinensis Sector**: With rising health awareness, improving policies, and mature artificial cultivation technologies, the artificial cultivation of Cordyceps Sinensis is entering a phase of large-scale industrial development. Companies with forward-looking capacity and technological layouts are expected to show greater growth potential [8] - **Key Companies**: Zhongxing Junye and Xue Rong Biological are highlighted as significant players in the industry [8] Risk Factors - **Market Competition**: Increased competition in the market poses a risk [9] - **Food Safety**: Potential food safety risks could impact the industry [9] - **Innovation Risks**: Risks associated with research and development not meeting expectations [9] - **Raw Material Costs**: Rising costs of raw materials present a financial risk [9]