【华泰公用】发电侧容量电价新规基本符合预期 事件：2026年1月30日，国家发改委、国家能源局发布《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》（发改价格 〔2026〕114号），在此前煤电、抽蓄容量电价机制的基础上进一步更新规则，并扩充至气电、电网侧独立新型储 能的容量电价顶层设计。 观点： 1）各类电源容量电价机制完善情况基本符合预期，有望提升调节电源的固定收入占比，盈利稳定性有望提升，推 荐火 【华泰公用】发电侧容量电价新规基本符合预期 事件：2026年1月30日，国家发改委、国家能源局发布《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》（发改价格 〔2026〕114号），在此前煤电、抽蓄容量电价机制的基础上进一步更新规则，并扩充至气电、电网侧独立新型储 能的容量电价顶层设计。 观点： 1）各类电源容量电价机制完善情况基本符合预期，有望提升调节电源的固定收入占比，盈利稳定性有望提升，推 荐火电龙头【华能国际AH】/【国电电力】/【华润电力】等、抽蓄运营龙头南网储能和装机增长潜力大的【长江 电力】/【湖北能源】等； 2）抽蓄抽水、电网侧独立新型储能充电时缴纳上网环节线损费用和系统运行费用（全国平均约1.6和6.1分/千瓦 时） ...

【国泰海通食饮】周报第5期：茅台动销批价上行，零食迎接备货行情 本周1月29日白酒板块单日大幅上涨，主要受地产政策、茅台批价、流动性等多重因素催化。 据我们观察，茅台价盘理顺后渠道融合度显著提升，线上i茅台掀起抢购潮，线下经销商出货甚至略快于往年，近 期礼赠及饮用需求增加，普飞批价本周一度涨超1700元。 展望后续：1）短期维度，白酒开门红推进中，除强势品牌外多数渠道打款积极性一般，预计动销高峰2月开启， 届时若普飞等核心大单品需求持续释放，则有望支撑价盘，若批价确认企稳，我们认为其对股价的压制将会减 轻；2）中期维度，2026年景气修复和库存去化尚需时间，预计酒企通过以价换量或控量的方式维持渠道韧性，典 型的以价换量如高端龙头茅台、五粮液，控量如习酒、郎酒等，5-6月起行业迎来低基数，动销或将逐步企稳，具 备较强放量潜力的品牌有望更快修复，行业预计呈现主动或被动去库之势，为后续发展奠定基础。 大众品：元旦良好人流量利好出行相关食饮需求。 成长为主线、重视供需出清下的拐点机会。 1）首选具有价格弹性标的：贵州茅台、五粮液、泸州老窖以及有望陆续出清标的：迎驾贡酒、古井贡酒、山西汾 酒、今世缘、珍酒李渡、舍得酒业 ...

我们认为，季度环比的稳健增长主要得益于 800G 和 1.6T光模块需求的持续上升，且在供应链紧张的市场环境 下，公司的领先市场地位有助于其获取光芯片等关键零部件。 野村 – 中际旭创业绩预告超出我们预期的中间值 中际旭创（300308 CH，买入评级）于 1 月 30 日收盘后发布 2025 财年业绩预告，归母净利润预计为 98 亿 – 118 亿元，同比增长 89.5%– 128.17%，其中间值 108 亿元，较我们此前预计的 103 亿元高出 5%。 同时，扣除股份支付费用后，光模块业务净利润预计为 108 亿 – 131 亿元，同比增长 90.8 野村 – 中际旭创业绩预告超出我们预期的中间值 中际旭创（300308 CH，买入评级）于 1 月 30 日收盘后发布 2025 财年业绩预告，归母净利润预计为 98 亿 – 118 亿元，同比增长 89.5%– 128.17%，其中间值 108 亿元，较我们此前预计的 103 亿元高出 5%。 同时，扣除股份支付费用后，光模块业务净利润预计为 108 亿 – 131 亿元，同比增长 90.8%– 131.4%。 2025 财年业绩预告对应 2025 年第 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Baijiu Industry Core Insights and Arguments - **Zhenjiu Li Du**: - The company has initiated a 26-year repayment plan with inventory levels around 3+ months [1] - Recent batch prices for Zhen30, Zhen15, Zhen10, and Zhen5 are 720, 305, 260, and 110 yuan respectively [1] - Over 4,000 contracts signed with major Zhen Alliance merchants, achieving over 700 million yuan in repayments [1] - The second phase of Zhenjiu's expansion has halted recruitment in 15 counties, with a strategy of replacing existing merchants [1] - The "Zhen 2021 Real Vintage" is set to launch, while the 2020 vintage will cease production by year-end, with a price increase of 10 yuan per bottle starting January 10 [1] - Zhenjiu's classic version has been officially launched at a suggested retail price of 208 yuan per bottle, now available in Guizhou [1] - **Yanghe Co.**: - The company has achieved a 20% repayment progress for 2026, with average inventory levels of 2.5-3 months [2] - Batch prices for M6+, M3 Crystal Edition, Tianzhilan, and Haizhilan are 560, 360, 240, and 115 yuan respectively [2] - Yanghe has been selected as an official sponsor for "Su Super" [2] - No mandatory repayment requirements during the Spring Festival, with current inventory below 2 months [2] - **Jinshi Yuan**: - The company reports a 25% repayment progress for 2026, with average inventory around 3.5 months [2] - Batch prices for Dikai, Si Kai, and V3 are approximately 240, 405, and 500 yuan [2] - Jinshi Yuan has sponsored "Su Super" for two consecutive years [2] - The company is adapting to changes in consumer behavior, with a notable increase in the sales of its light and elegant products [2] - The company aims to maintain a stable market presence and pricing strategy while expanding its product matrix [2] - **Gu Jing Gong Jiu**: - The company has a 25% repayment progress for 2026, with inventory levels around 5+ months [3] - Batch prices for Gu20, Gu16, Gu8, Gu5, and Xianli are 510, 310, 190, 103, and 76 yuan respectively [3] - Gu Jing Gong Jiu announced a cash dividend distribution plan totaling 529 million yuan [3] - **Kouzi Jiao**: - The company has initiated a 26-year repayment plan with average inventory levels of 4+ months [3] - Batch prices for Kouzi 30, 20, 10, and 6 years are 700, 300, 200, and 120 yuan respectively [3] - The company reported significant declines in high-end and mid-range product revenues, with a notable increase in low-end product sales [3] - **Yingjia Gong Jiu**: - The company has a repayment progress of 20-30% for 2026, with average inventory around 5+ months [4] - Promotional prices for Dong6, 9, and 16 are 110, 185, and 285 yuan, with stable batch prices [4] - The company aims for a 30% repayment target in Q1, with expectations for continued growth in Dong6 and 9 [4] - **Jinhui Jiu**: - The company has initiated a repayment plan for 2026 [5] - Plans to distribute nearly 100 million yuan in cash dividends [5] - Positive feedback from the Northwest region indicates potential market share growth due to a lack of strong competitors [5] - The company has seen revenue growth in products priced below 100 yuan, with a rising share in the 300 yuan and above segment [5] Other Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the Baijiu industry reflects cautious optimism, with companies focusing on maintaining stable pricing and adapting to changing consumer preferences [2][3][4][5] - The impact of the Spring Festival on sales and repayment expectations is a common theme, with companies expressing a mix of caution and strategic planning for the upcoming period [2][3][4]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry - **Company**: 淮北矿业 (Huabei Mining) - **Industry**: Coal and Power Generation Key Points and Arguments Production Capacity Growth - **Coal Production**: - The revival of the Xinh Lake coal mine (3 million tons/year, equity 2.04 million tons/year) is imminent - The Tao Hutu coal mine (8 million tons/year, equity 3.04 million tons/year) aims to commence production in the first half of the year - Total approved production capacity of coal mines will reach 42.25 million tons/year (+23.36%), with equity capacity at 34.90 million tons/year (+9.51%) [1][1][1] - **Power Generation Projects**: - The 2×660MW power generation project is expected to be operational by 2026, securing profits in the coal-power industry through self-supplied coal [1][1][1] - **Aggregate Mining**: - Four non-coal mines are under construction or planned, with approved capacity reaching 40.90 million tons/year (+49.27%) and equity capacity at 39.93 million tons/year (+47.28%) [1][1][1] Profitability Elasticity - **Coal Segment**: - Coking coal sales account for over 50% of both production and sales, indicating significant profitability elasticity - The Xinh Lake mine is expected to produce 150/210/270 thousand tons of coal from 2026 to 2028, with net profit per ton at 252 yuan, leading to estimated net profits of 2.56/3.59/4.62 million yuan - The Tao Hutu mine, with a calorific value exceeding 6000 kcal, is projected to produce 80/320/560 thousand tons, with net profit per ton at 157 yuan, resulting in estimated net profits of 0.48/1.91/3.34 million yuan [2][2][2] - **Power Generation**: - Expected electricity generation of 2.64/3.96/5.28 billion kWh from 2026 to 2028, with net profit per kWh at 0.052/0.046/0.041 yuan, leading to estimated net profits of 1.09/1.46/1.71 million yuan [2][2][2] - **Aggregate Sales**: - Projected sales volume of 2.545/3.123/3.701 million tons from 2026 to 2028, with net profit per ton at 9 yuan, resulting in estimated net profits of 2.12/2.62/3.11 million yuan [2][2][2] Future Outlook - **Profitability Turnaround**: - Anticipation of a profitability turning point by the second quarter of 2026, with conservative estimates for net profits of 1.49/2.62/4.10 billion yuan for 2025-2027 (YoY -69%/+76%/+56%) [3][3][3] - Corresponding PE ratios are projected at 22.6×/12.9×/8.2×, maintaining a "Buy" rating [3][3][3] Risk Factors - **Potential Risks**: - Delays in mine revival and production progress - Significant decline in coal prices - Lower than expected electricity generation [4][4][4]

2025 财年业绩预告对应 2025 年第四季度净利 同时，扣除股份支付费用后，光模块业务净利润预计为 108 亿 – 131 亿元，同比增长 90.8%– 131.4%。 中际旭创（300308 CH，买入评级）于 1 月 30 日收盘后发布 2025 财年业绩预告，，同比增长 89.5%– 128.17%，其中间值 108 亿元，较我们此前预计的 103 亿元高出 5%。 中际旭创（300308 CH，买入评级）于 1 月 30 日收盘后发布 2025 财年业绩预告，，同比增长 89.5%– 128.17%，其中间值 108 亿元，较我们此前预计的 103 亿元高出 5%。 目前该股票的 2026 财年预期市盈率为 28.5 倍。 另一家光模块供应商天孚通信（300502 CH，未评级）主要面向全球人工智能数据中心市场，同日也发布了 2025 财年业绩预告。 公司预计 2025 财年净利润为 94 亿 – 99 亿元，同比增长 231.2%– 248.9%，其中间值 96.5 亿元，较万得一致预 期的 89.9 亿元高出 7%。 2025 财年业绩预告对应 2025 年第四季度净利润为 30.7 亿 – ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Overseas computing power and optical module market - **Key Companies Mentioned**: 西部通信 (West Communication), 中际旭创 (Zhongji Xuchuang), 新易盛 (Xinyi Sheng), 英维克 (Yingweike), 福晶科技 (Fujing Technology) Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Optical Module Market**: - Strong demand and material shortages expected in H1 2026, with leading companies showing supply chain advantages [1] - Market sentiment is improving as previous suppressive factors are alleviated, allowing funds to enter the market early [1] - Key price catalysts will emerge as industry guidance for 2027 becomes clearer, particularly after the OFC conference in March [1] - Performance in H1 2026 is anticipated to be the highest among leading optical module companies, with H2 2026 expected to see accelerated performance due to material supply easing [1] 2. **Liquid Cooling Solutions**: - 2026 is projected to be the first year of significant adoption for liquid cooling solutions, with major companies like NV, Meta, and Google leading the way [2] - Estimated value of liquid cooling solutions is approximately $1,400 per 1kW chip, translating to a market potential of $21 billion for 15 million chips [2] - Domestic leaders in liquid cooling for ASIC chips are expected to capture over 20% market share, with overseas orders potentially yielding double the profit margins compared to domestic [2] 3. **Price Increases in Communication Products**: - Recommendations to invest in core communication products due to ongoing price increases driven by supply constraints [2] - Significant supply reductions from global suppliers of Faraday rotators, with Japanese company Granopt reducing production and issuing supply cut notices [2] - Domestic manufacturers like 森一 (Senyi), 飞锐特 (Feiruite), and 福晶科技 (Fujing Technology) are positioned to increase their market share through domestic substitution [2] 4. **Self-Sufficiency in SGGG Crystals**: - 福晶科技 has achieved self-sufficiency in SGGG crystal materials, which is expected to alleviate expansion bottlenecks and significantly increase market share [3] 5. **Data Center Fiber Pricing**: - Continuous price increases for fiber cables noted since January, with expectations of rising demand and prices from domestic operators [3] - Fiber optic cable manufacturers are adopting "same-day valid" pricing due to volatility in raw material costs, leading to a cautious expansion approach [3] Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the overseas computing power sector is shifting positively, with early investments being made in anticipation of future growth [1][2] - The liquid cooling market is set for rapid growth, with significant opportunities for domestic companies to capture market share [2] - The supply chain dynamics in the optical module and communication product markets are critical, with potential for substantial price increases due to supply constraints [2][3]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Overseas computing power and optical modules - **Key Companies Mentioned**: 西部通信 (West Communication), 中际旭创 (Inspur), 新易盛 (NewEase), 英维克 (Invec), 福晶科技 (Fujing Technology), 长飞光纤 (Changfei Fiber), 亨通光电 (Hengtong Optic), 中天科技 (ZTE Technology) Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Optical Module Demand**: Strong demand and material shortages expected in H1 2026, with leading companies showcasing supply chain advantages. The release of previous performance forecast suppression is alleviating, and market pressures are easing, allowing funds to enter early in a strong industry trend [1] 2. **Future Catalysts**: Attention is shifting to clearer industry guidance for 2027, anticipated post the OFC conference in March, and new technology trends (NPO/CPO) that will promote scale-up scenarios. The short-term performance realization will depend on upstream supply chain material and capacity resolution [1] 3. **Liquid Cooling Solutions**: 2026 is projected to be the first year of significant liquid cooling adoption, with NV, Meta, and Google leading commercial applications. The estimated value of liquid cooling solutions for ASIC chips is substantial, with potential market size reaching $21 billion [2] 4. **Market Share Potential**: Domestic leaders in liquid cooling solutions for ASIC chips are expected to capture over 20% market share, with overseas orders potentially yielding double the profit margins compared to domestic ones [2] 5. **Price Increases in Key Components**: Recommendations include focusing on core price-increasing products in communication, particularly SGGG crystals and Faraday rotators. Global supply reductions are creating significant gaps, with domestic manufacturers poised to increase their market share [3] 6. **Data Center Fiber Pricing**: Continuous price increases for fiber optic cables are noted, with domestic operators expecting both volume and price increases. Manufacturers are adopting "same-day effective" pricing due to raw material price volatility, indicating a cautious expansion approach [3] Additional Important Insights - **Performance Realization Timing**: The performance realization for leading optical module companies is expected to be highest in H1 2026, with H2 2026 anticipated to see accelerated performance due to easing material supply [1] - **Investment Recommendations**: Strong buy recommendations for 中际旭创 and 新易盛 based on anticipated strong alpha in H1 2026, and 英维克 is expected to see significant acceleration in Q2 2026, with potential for valuation premium in 2027 [2] - **Domestic Production Capabilities**: 福晶科技 has achieved self-sufficiency in SGGG crystal materials, which could alleviate expansion bottlenecks and significantly enhance market share [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **pharmaceutical industry**, particularly the **CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization)** sector, highlighting key players like **Lonza** and **Samsung Biologics** [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Lonza's Financial Performance**: - For the year 2025, Lonza reported sales of **65.31 billion Swiss Francs**, with a constant exchange rate (CER) year-over-year growth of **21.7%**. - The core EBITDA margin improved by **1.4 percentage points** to **31.6%**, exceeding the revised annual expectations [1]. - The company maintains an optimistic outlook for 2026, projecting a **11-12%** CER year-over-year growth in CDMO sales and an EBITDA margin surpassing **32%** [1]. - **Upcoming Financial Disclosures**: - February will see a concentrated disclosure period for several leading CXO companies, which will provide insights into revenue, profits, orders, and capacity planning, along with 2026 operational guidance [2]. - **Strategic Collaborations**: - On January 30, **Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group** announced a strategic R&D collaboration with **AstraZeneca** to develop innovative long-acting peptide drugs using its proprietary sustained-release drug delivery technology and AI drug discovery platform [2]. - **Growth Projections for CXO Companies**: - Given the order-to-performance conversion cycle, it is anticipated that CXO companies will continue to experience rapid growth over the next **1-2 years** [2]. Additional Important Content - **Medical Devices and Biologics**: - Roche reported positive topline results from the **CT388-103 Phase II clinical trial**, suggesting continued monitoring of subsequent R&D progress [3]. - **Medical Services and Consumer Healthcare**: - **Gushengtang** plans to issue convertible bonds totaling **$110 million** (approximately **860 million Hong Kong Dollars**) [3]. - **Synergistic Opportunities**: - There is potential for deep collaboration in business synergy and resource integration, which could yield significant synergistic effects [4]. - **Chinese Herbal Medicine**: - Some companies are expected to achieve good results in inventory reduction, and with a low base, the operational trend for 2026 is anticipated to improve, suggesting potential turnaround opportunities for certain companies [4]. - **Overall Industry Recovery**: - The combination of overseas CXO annual reports and 2026 performance guidance, along with domestic CXO companies' 2025 performance forecasts, indicates a clear recovery rhythm and upward trend in the industry, presenting strong investment value and suggesting active positioning [4].

1）25Q4实现营收692.1亿元、同比+16%、环比+13%，归母净利润12.8亿元、同比-44%、环比-44%，扣非净利润 6.8亿元、同比-50%、环比-64%； 2）25全年实现营收2228亿元、同比+10%，归母净利润99亿元、同比-22%，扣非净利润62亿元、同比-36%。 1、公司发布2025年业绩快报 【国金汽车】长城汽车：还原后Q4业绩环比增长，出口&高端化加速向上 < 【国金汽车】长城汽车：还原后Q4业绩环比增长，出口&高端化加速向上 1、公司发布2025年业绩快报 ASP同比增长主要来自销售结构优化：①Q4出口销量17.2万台、同比+33%、环比+26%②高端车型销量增长：坦克 +魏牌Q4内销8.6万台、同比+22%、环比+18%。 4、展望： 1）坦克持续贡献高盈利：25年坦克400/500新款上市后合计贡献3-4k/月增量（且新款销量占比高、单车盈利更 好），26年坦克依然有700/300的新车上市，坦克内销全年有望贡献25亿以上利润增量； 2）出海业绩弹性大：26年出海保守目标增长10w，目前对俄出口占比已降低至30%，南美、右舵将持续放量，欧 洲也会有所突破；同时公司在巴西、澳大 ...