Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 43.0, reflecting a potential upside of 5.7% from the current price of RMB 40.7 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company's revenue in Q2 2024 grew by 13.5% year-on-year, primarily driven by the contribution from the newly acquired brands Za and Bo Mei, which generated RMB 130 million. However, excluding this contribution, the comparable revenue growth was only 5.1%, indicating that the main brand, Winona, has yet to show significant improvement from its strategic adjustments [2][3]. - The integration of the new brands has enhanced the company's multi-brand matrix but has not yet led to a substantial increase in overall revenue, as the new brands only accounted for 7.4% of total revenue [2][3]. - The gross margin has declined due to the increased proportion of mass-market products, with the overall gross margin dropping by 2.8 percentage points to 72.6% in the first half of 2024 [2][3]. - Cost control measures have started to show results, with a decrease in sales and R&D expense ratios, which helped mitigate the impact of lower gross margins on operating profit margins [2][3]. Financial Forecast Adjustments - The revenue forecast for 2024 has been adjusted downwards to RMB 6,476 million, reflecting a 2.1% decrease from previous estimates. The forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have also been reduced by 5.1% and 7.1%, respectively [3][6]. - The gross profit forecast for 2024 is now RMB 4,605 million, down 2.7% from prior estimates, with gross margins expected to decline further in the second half of 2024 due to promotional activities during peak sales periods [3][6]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 has been revised down to RMB 910 million, representing a 7.9% decrease from previous estimates, with net profit margins expected to decline as well [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company and lowers the target price to RMB 48.9 [1][2]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 18.1% in Q2 2024, with a significant drop in net profit attributable to shareholders by 56% year-on-year, indicating that a return to growth will take time [1]. - Adjustments in the functional skincare product line are ongoing, with a 30% year-on-year revenue decline in the first half of 2024. Despite some improvements in the brand structure, revenue for the leading brand, Runbaiyan, still fell by over 10% [1]. - The company anticipates a sequential growth in the second half of 2024 due to new product launches and increased marketing efforts for major sales events like Double Eleven [1]. - Revenue from raw materials and medical aesthetic products has supported overall revenue during the decline in functional skincare, with raw material revenue growing by 11% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [1]. - The report projects a recovery in profit margins due to reduced promotional expenses and cost control measures, despite a temporary increase in sales and management expense ratios [1]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to decline from RMB 6,359 million in 2022 to RMB 5,880 million in 2024, with a year-on-year change of -3.2% [2][7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to recover slightly from RMB 593 million in 2023 to RMB 597 million in 2024, reflecting a minimal year-on-year increase of 0.7% [2][7]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 42.7x in 2024, decreasing to 30.3x in 2025 [2][7]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 8.7% in 2023 to 8.2% in 2024, before recovering to 10.7% in 2025 [2][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Baosheng (3813.HK), with a target price of HKD 0.73, indicating a potential upside of 15.9% from the current price of HKD 0.63 [2][4]. Core Insights - Despite a significant revenue decline of 9% in 1H24, Baosheng achieved a 10% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders through cost reduction and efficiency improvements, showcasing strong operational management [2][9]. - The company’s ability to expand its operating profit margin amidst declining revenues reflects effective cost control and operational efficiency enhancements [2][9]. - The second half of 2024 will largely depend on revenue performance, but the benefits of cost-cutting measures are expected to continue [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: The company reported a revenue of RMB 18,514 million for 2024E, reflecting an 8% decline year-on-year [3][11]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 516 million for 2024E, a 5% increase compared to the previous year [3][11]. - **Profit Margins**: The operating profit margin is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase anticipated in 2024 [2][9]. - **Earnings Per Share**: The diluted earnings per share is projected to be HKD 0.10 for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio close to 55%, leading to a dividend yield of 9.5% based on current stock price [2][9][10]. Operational Efficiency - The company has successfully reduced overall operating expenses by 9% year-on-year, attributed to the closure of inefficient stores and optimization of rental costs [2][9]. - The gross profit margin improved by 2.0 percentage points in 2Q24, driven by better retail discount management and a shift in channel structure due to a decline in wholesale revenue [2][9]. Market Outlook - The demand in the international brand retail market remains weak, and Baosheng is expected to focus on maintaining healthy inventory levels and improving retail discounts in the second half of 2024 [2][9]. - The company may increase the scale of its wholesale business to compensate for the decline in direct store sales, which could positively impact channel structure and gross margins [2][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 5.1, indicating a potential upside of 25% from the current price of HKD 4.1 [7][9][16]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the rising demand for smartphone camera modules and improvements in product structure, leading to increased average selling prices [7][16]. - The automotive camera module business is experiencing rapid growth, with significant potential for profitability improvement as the company engages with domestic and international automotive manufacturers [7][16]. - The report highlights that the fingerprint recognition segment is expected to significantly reduce losses, contributing positively to overall performance [7][16]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2022: RMB 13,759 million - 2023: RMB 12,531 million (down 9% YoY) - 2024E: RMB 16,197 million (up 29% YoY) - 2025E: RMB 18,545 million (up 14% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 21,929 million (up 18% YoY) [5][10][14]. - Net profit is projected to recover significantly: - 2022: RMB 171 million - 2023: RMB 82 million (down 52% YoY) - 2024E: RMB 274 million (up 234% YoY) - 2025E: RMB 385 million (up 41% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 513 million (up 33% YoY) [5][10][14]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 3.9% in 2022 to 6.4% by 2026E, reflecting better product mix and cost management [5][10][14]. Segment Performance - The company’s camera module segment is projected to generate significant revenue, with expectations of 221 million units shipped in the first half of 2024, reflecting a 30% increase YoY [13]. - The average selling price for camera modules is anticipated to rise, contributing to revenue growth [13]. - The automotive camera module segment is expected to maintain high growth momentum, with approximately 200,000 units shipped in the first half of 2024 [7][13]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning target P/E ratios of 14.0x for smartphone camera modules, 18.0x for other camera modules, 8.0x for fingerprint recognition modules, and 10.0x for other businesses, leading to a target price of HKD 5.1 [7][16][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an upgraded target price of HKD 19.3 for the Hong Kong stock and RMB 56.7 for the A-share, indicating potential upside of 22% and 26% respectively [7][8]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing an upward trend in the semiconductor fundamentals, with a projected 14% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth for Q3 and a gross margin target of 19%, up 5.1 percentage points from the previous quarter. This growth is driven by local demand, optimization of product mix, and favorable pricing [7][8]. - The second quarter performance exceeded market expectations, with a 9% quarter-over-quarter and 22% year-over-year revenue increase. The company anticipates a 34% year-over-year revenue growth for Q3 [7][11]. - The company’s 12-inch capacity is in high demand, with an expected increase of approximately 60,000 wafers per month by year-end, surpassing previous plans [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - Q2 2024 revenue reached USD 1.901 billion, a 22% increase year-over-year and a 9% increase quarter-over-quarter. Gross profit was USD 265 million, with a gross margin of 13.9% [11]. - The company reported a net profit of USD 165 million in Q2, a 59% decline year-over-year but a 129% increase quarter-over-quarter [11]. - For 2024, the company’s revenue is projected to be USD 7.875 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 34% [9][13]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-book ratio for the Hong Kong stock is 0.8x, and for the A-share, it is 2.7x, both indicating potential for upward movement compared to historical averages [7][18]. - The report adjusts the EBITDA forecasts for 2024 and 2025, reflecting a more optimistic outlook based on recent performance and guidance [8][13]. Market Expectations - The market expects the company to maintain a strong performance in the second half of the year, with overall sales anticipated to exceed the first half, leading to a revenue growth rate higher than the industry average [7][8].

风险提示：美联储未及时对经济走弱做出反应而引起经济衰退，提早 降息导致通胀率居高不下和经济过热，地缘政治风险推升通胀。 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

浦银国际研究 中国消费行业 首次覆盖 2024 年 7 月 8 日 超配 首次覆盖 尽管短期内,中国酒店业面临着高基数、消费理性化以及恶劣天气影响的冲击,但长期来看随着 消费者境内游热情高涨以及差旅需求恢复,中国酒店市场有望持续恢复。我们基于两极化的下沉 市场连锁化率提升和结构升级的市场整合趋势,认为酒店品牌的品牌力、会员粘性和轻资产运营 能力是评价酒店集团的主要标准。我们首次覆盖中国酒店行业,给予"超配"评级。首次覆盖给 予亚朵集团(ATAT.US)、华住集团(1179.HK/HTHT.US)"买入"评级,给予锦江酒店(600754.CH) 和首旅酒店(600258.CH)"持有"评级。 林闻嘉(首席消费分析师) richard_lin@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6433 桑若楠,CFA(消费分析师) serena_sang@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6439 欢迎关注 浦银国际研究 本研究报告由浦银国际证券有限公司分析师编制,请仔细阅读本报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露及免责声明。 目 求 | | |---------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $23 7, implying a potential upside of 22 2% from the current price of $19 4 [2][3] Core Views - Luckin Coffee has become the largest chain coffee brand in China, surpassing Starbucks in both store count and order volume, driven by strong brand marketing, product innovation, and affordable pricing [3] - The company has successfully transformed from a loss-making, credibility-damaged company to a profitable and rapidly expanding brand, focusing on product innovation, youth-oriented marketing, and cost-effective strategies [3] - Luckin Coffee's future growth potential lies in its ability to consolidate the market, expand into lower-tier cities, and explore overseas markets, despite short-term pressure on profitability due to intense competition [3] Industry Overview - The Chinese coffee market has grown significantly, with the overall market size reaching RMB 82 8 billion in 2023, and per capita coffee consumption reaching RMB 58 8 [12] - Ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee shops have become the primary channel for coffee consumption in China, contributing 66 5% of the total retail coffee market revenue in 2023, far exceeding instant coffee and RTD coffee [14] - The rise of RTD coffee shops in China is attributed to urbanization, the influence of Western lifestyles, the role of social media, and the addictive nature of coffee [15] Luckin Coffee's Strategy - Luckin Coffee has disrupted the traditional coffee market by offering a wide variety of products at affordable prices, making RTD coffee more accessible to the general public [3] - The company has focused on product innovation, such as the introduction of coconut latte and sauce-flavored latte, which have become viral hits on social media [3][25] - Luckin Coffee has adopted a franchise model to expand into lower-tier cities, with 5,620 franchise stores accounting for 34 6% of its total store count by the end of 2023 [35] Market Competition - Starbucks and Luckin Coffee have been the key players driving the development of the Chinese RTD coffee market, with Starbucks establishing the premium image of RTD coffee and Luckin Coffee making it more accessible to the masses [16] - The Chinese coffee market is becoming more segmented, with the emergence of both mass-market and premium coffee brands catering to different consumer needs [44] - Starbucks' market share in China has been declining since 2017, as new players like Luckin Coffee and other mass-market brands have gained traction [47] Future Growth Potential - The penetration rate of coffee in lower-tier cities is expected to continue rising, driven by increasing consumer acceptance, economic development, and the return of young people from higher-tier cities [35] - The high-tier cities are experiencing a trend of consumption stratification, with consumers becoming more price-sensitive and demanding higher quality and more diverse coffee products [39] - The Chinese coffee market is expected to continue growing, with the RTD coffee market projected to reach RMB 52 5 billion by 2026, driven by the expansion of mass-market brands and the rise of premium coffee brands [38] Financial Performance - Luckin Coffee's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 24 9 billion in 2023 to RMB 52 5 billion in 2026, with net profit increasing from RMB 2 8 billion to RMB 5 1 billion over the same period [4] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 55%, with operating margin improving from 12 1% in 2023 to 11 9% in 2026 [8] - Luckin Coffee's valuation is considered attractive compared to international coffee chains and large-scale Chinese restaurant chains, with potential for further upside if the company relists on a major stock exchange [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 58 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 84% from the current price of 31.5 HKD [2][4][5]. Core Insights - The recent data for CM310 (treatment for moderate to severe atopic dermatitis) and CMG901 (treatment for gastric cancer) align with historical trends and expectations, showing stable and positive results [2][3]. - CM310 demonstrates superior efficacy compared to Dupixent, with a 52-week EASI-75 response rate of 92.5% and a significant reduction in patient-reported outcomes [3]. - CMG901 shows promising results in gastric cancer, with an overall objective response rate (ORR) of 35% and a disease control rate (DCR) of 70% in a cohort of patients with high CLDN18.2 expression [3]. Summary by Sections CM310 Efficacy Data - CM310's 52-week data shows a lower rate of drug resistance compared to Dupixent, with serious adverse events at 5.1% and severe treatment-emergent adverse events at 2.9% [3]. - The treatment group exhibited a 67.3% rate of achieving a significant reduction in daily pain scores [3]. CMG901 Clinical Data - The updated 1b phase data for CMG901 indicates an ORR of 35% and a DCR of 70%, with the 2.2 mg/kg dose group achieving an ORR of 48% [3]. - The median progression-free survival (mPFS) is reported at 4.8 months, and median overall survival (mOS) at 11.8 months [3]. Future Catalysts - Key upcoming catalysts include the expected approval of CM310 for adult atopic dermatitis by the end of 2024 and the submission for chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps in mid-2024 [3]. - Additional important data readouts are anticipated for CM326 and CM313 in 2024 [3].

浦银国际研究 行业追踪 | 医药行业 ASCO 2024：重点公司简要点评（一） 阳景 浦 首席医药分析师 5 月 23日下午（美国东部时间），一年一度的美国肿瘤年会（ASCO）披 Jing_yang@spdbi.com 银 露了此次大会投稿接收的摘要内容。对于备受关注的康方生物（9926.HK， (852) 2808 6434 国 际 “买入”评级）AK112 三期 HARMONi-A 数据（EGFR 突变 NSCLC），我 们认为 ORR和 mPFS数字略低于预期，不过首次披露的 PFS获益 HR好 胡泽宇 CFA 于已上市药物（尤其是在 T790M突变细分人群），若后续 OS数据优秀， 医药分析师 公司股价有望迎来反弹。此外，科伦博泰（未覆盖）SKB264 三期 3L+ ryan_hu@spdbi.com TNBC 数据优异，有同类最佳的潜力；二期 1L NSCLC 数据好于国外同类 (852) 2808 6446 竞争对手。 2024年5月24日  康方生物（9926.HK；评级“买入”）AK112三期EGFR突变 NSCLC适 行 应症 mPFS和 ORR数字略低于预期，但首次披露的 PFS获益 ...