Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 5.1, indicating a potential upside of 25% from the current price of HKD 4.1 [7][9][16]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the rising demand for smartphone camera modules and improvements in product structure, leading to increased average selling prices [7][16]. - The automotive camera module business is experiencing rapid growth, with significant potential for profitability improvement as the company engages with domestic and international automotive manufacturers [7][16]. - The report highlights that the fingerprint recognition segment is expected to significantly reduce losses, contributing positively to overall performance [7][16]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2022: RMB 13,759 million - 2023: RMB 12,531 million (down 9% YoY) - 2024E: RMB 16,197 million (up 29% YoY) - 2025E: RMB 18,545 million (up 14% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 21,929 million (up 18% YoY) [5][10][14]. - Net profit is projected to recover significantly: - 2022: RMB 171 million - 2023: RMB 82 million (down 52% YoY) - 2024E: RMB 274 million (up 234% YoY) - 2025E: RMB 385 million (up 41% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 513 million (up 33% YoY) [5][10][14]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 3.9% in 2022 to 6.4% by 2026E, reflecting better product mix and cost management [5][10][14]. Segment Performance - The company’s camera module segment is projected to generate significant revenue, with expectations of 221 million units shipped in the first half of 2024, reflecting a 30% increase YoY [13]. - The average selling price for camera modules is anticipated to rise, contributing to revenue growth [13]. - The automotive camera module segment is expected to maintain high growth momentum, with approximately 200,000 units shipped in the first half of 2024 [7][13]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning target P/E ratios of 14.0x for smartphone camera modules, 18.0x for other camera modules, 8.0x for fingerprint recognition modules, and 10.0x for other businesses, leading to a target price of HKD 5.1 [7][16][17].

浦银国际 公司研究 中芯国际 （981.HK/688981.CH） 浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 半导体行业 沈岱 首席科技分析师 tony_shen@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6435 马智焱 科技分析师 ivy_ma@spdbi.com (852) 2809 0300 黄佳琦 科技分析师 sia_huang@spdbi.com (852) 2809 0355 2024 年 8 月 12 日 中芯国际（981.HK） 目标价（港元） 19.3 潜在升幅/降幅 +22% 目前股价（港元） 15.8 52 周内股价区间（港元） 13.9-25.2 总市值（百万港元） 131,917 近 3 月日均成交额（百万港元） 735 注：截至 2024 年 8 月 8 收盘价 市场预期区间 HKD 13.0 HKD 22.4 HKD 15.8HKD 19.3 SPDBI 目标价 目前价 市场预期区间 资料来源：Bloomberg、浦银国际 中芯国际（688981.CH） 目标价（人民币） 56.7 潜在升幅/降幅 +26% 目前股价（人民币） 45.0 52 周内股价区间（人民币） 40.0-59.4 总市 ...

风险提示：美联储未及时对经济走弱做出反应而引起经济衰退，提早 降息导致通胀率居高不下和经济过热，地缘政治风险推升通胀。 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

浦银国际研究 中国消费行业 首次覆盖 2024 年 7 月 8 日 超配 首次覆盖 尽管短期内,中国酒店业面临着高基数、消费理性化以及恶劣天气影响的冲击,但长期来看随着 消费者境内游热情高涨以及差旅需求恢复,中国酒店市场有望持续恢复。我们基于两极化的下沉 市场连锁化率提升和结构升级的市场整合趋势,认为酒店品牌的品牌力、会员粘性和轻资产运营 能力是评价酒店集团的主要标准。我们首次覆盖中国酒店行业,给予"超配"评级。首次覆盖给 予亚朵集团(ATAT.US)、华住集团(1179.HK/HTHT.US)"买入"评级,给予锦江酒店(600754.CH) 和首旅酒店(600258.CH)"持有"评级。 林闻嘉(首席消费分析师) richard_lin@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6433 桑若楠,CFA(消费分析师) serena_sang@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6439 欢迎关注 浦银国际研究 本研究报告由浦银国际证券有限公司分析师编制,请仔细阅读本报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露及免责声明。 目 求 | | |---------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $23 7, implying a potential upside of 22 2% from the current price of $19 4 [2][3] Core Views - Luckin Coffee has become the largest chain coffee brand in China, surpassing Starbucks in both store count and order volume, driven by strong brand marketing, product innovation, and affordable pricing [3] - The company has successfully transformed from a loss-making, credibility-damaged company to a profitable and rapidly expanding brand, focusing on product innovation, youth-oriented marketing, and cost-effective strategies [3] - Luckin Coffee's future growth potential lies in its ability to consolidate the market, expand into lower-tier cities, and explore overseas markets, despite short-term pressure on profitability due to intense competition [3] Industry Overview - The Chinese coffee market has grown significantly, with the overall market size reaching RMB 82 8 billion in 2023, and per capita coffee consumption reaching RMB 58 8 [12] - Ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee shops have become the primary channel for coffee consumption in China, contributing 66 5% of the total retail coffee market revenue in 2023, far exceeding instant coffee and RTD coffee [14] - The rise of RTD coffee shops in China is attributed to urbanization, the influence of Western lifestyles, the role of social media, and the addictive nature of coffee [15] Luckin Coffee's Strategy - Luckin Coffee has disrupted the traditional coffee market by offering a wide variety of products at affordable prices, making RTD coffee more accessible to the general public [3] - The company has focused on product innovation, such as the introduction of coconut latte and sauce-flavored latte, which have become viral hits on social media [3][25] - Luckin Coffee has adopted a franchise model to expand into lower-tier cities, with 5,620 franchise stores accounting for 34 6% of its total store count by the end of 2023 [35] Market Competition - Starbucks and Luckin Coffee have been the key players driving the development of the Chinese RTD coffee market, with Starbucks establishing the premium image of RTD coffee and Luckin Coffee making it more accessible to the masses [16] - The Chinese coffee market is becoming more segmented, with the emergence of both mass-market and premium coffee brands catering to different consumer needs [44] - Starbucks' market share in China has been declining since 2017, as new players like Luckin Coffee and other mass-market brands have gained traction [47] Future Growth Potential - The penetration rate of coffee in lower-tier cities is expected to continue rising, driven by increasing consumer acceptance, economic development, and the return of young people from higher-tier cities [35] - The high-tier cities are experiencing a trend of consumption stratification, with consumers becoming more price-sensitive and demanding higher quality and more diverse coffee products [39] - The Chinese coffee market is expected to continue growing, with the RTD coffee market projected to reach RMB 52 5 billion by 2026, driven by the expansion of mass-market brands and the rise of premium coffee brands [38] Financial Performance - Luckin Coffee's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 24 9 billion in 2023 to RMB 52 5 billion in 2026, with net profit increasing from RMB 2 8 billion to RMB 5 1 billion over the same period [4] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 55%, with operating margin improving from 12 1% in 2023 to 11 9% in 2026 [8] - Luckin Coffee's valuation is considered attractive compared to international coffee chains and large-scale Chinese restaurant chains, with potential for further upside if the company relists on a major stock exchange [3]

浦银国际研究 公司追踪 | 医药行业 康诺亚（2162.HK）：CM310 52 周数据 阳景 浦 首席医药分析师 银 和 CMG901 更新胃癌数据均符合预期 Jing_yang@spdbi.com 国 (852) 2808 6434 际 整体来说，公司近日披露的 CM310 中重度特应性皮炎 52 周数据和 胡泽宇，CFA CMG901 更新的 1b 期胃癌数据，与之前历史数据趋势一致，符合预 期，稳中向好。重申“买入”评级和目标价 58 港元。 医药分析师 ryan_hu@spdbi.com ● CM310（IL-4Rα）52周特应性皮炎疗效数据仍然维持较 Dupixent更 (852) 2808 6446 优的趋势，符合预期；52周用药病人抗药性目前看起来低于Dupixent， 令人惊喜：第52 周时，司普奇拜单抗（CM310）组（剂量:300mg Q2W） 2024年6月3日 EASI-75 达标率为 92.5%，IGA 评分为 0/1 分且较基线下降≥2 分达标 公 率为67.3%，EASI-90 达标率为77.1%，每日PP-NRS 评分周平均值较基 司 评级 线降低≥4 分，达标率为67.3% ...

浦银国际研究 行业追踪 | 医药行业 ASCO 2024：重点公司简要点评（一） 阳景 浦 首席医药分析师 5 月 23日下午（美国东部时间），一年一度的美国肿瘤年会（ASCO）披 Jing_yang@spdbi.com 银 露了此次大会投稿接收的摘要内容。对于备受关注的康方生物（9926.HK， (852) 2808 6434 国 际 “买入”评级）AK112 三期 HARMONi-A 数据（EGFR 突变 NSCLC），我 们认为 ORR和 mPFS数字略低于预期，不过首次披露的 PFS获益 HR好 胡泽宇 CFA 于已上市药物（尤其是在 T790M突变细分人群），若后续 OS数据优秀， 医药分析师 公司股价有望迎来反弹。此外，科伦博泰（未覆盖）SKB264 三期 3L+ ryan_hu@spdbi.com TNBC 数据优异，有同类最佳的潜力；二期 1L NSCLC 数据好于国外同类 (852) 2808 6446 竞争对手。 2024年5月24日  康方生物（9926.HK；评级“买入”）AK112三期EGFR突变 NSCLC适 行 应症 mPFS和 ORR数字略低于预期，但首次披露的 PFS获益 ...

科技行业 | 行业追踪 全球智能手机 1Q24 出货量增速超预期， 沈岱 浦 略微上调 2024 年智能手机出货量预测 首席科技分析师 银 tony_shen@spdbi.com 国 (852) 2808 6435 际 全球智能手机 1Q24 出货量略优于我们此前预期，略微上调 2024 马智焱 年出货量增速预期至 4.9%。根据 IDC 最新公布的数据，1Q24 全 科技分析师 球智能手机出货量 3.0 亿部，环比下降7%，同比增长12%。今年 ivy_ma@spdbi.com (852) 2809 0300 一季度出货量同比增速较去年四季度的 8%继续上扬，超出我们 此前预测。其中，中东非的一季度出货量同比增长30%，增长非 黄佳琦 行 常强劲，这是传音一季度智能手机出货量增长动能之一。拉美地 科技分析师 业 区出货量也表现亮眼，同比增长 23%。印度、亚洲其他地区、欧 sia_huang@spdbi.com 追 洲等三个地区的出货量都增长强劲，实现了两位数的同比增长。 (852) 2809 0355 踪 北美地区出货量同比增速开始走弱，同比下降 4%。 2024年5月20日 因为全球智能手机一季度较强劲 ...

策略月报 本研究报告由浦银国际证券有限公司分析师编制，请仔细阅读本报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露及免责声明。 新兴市场或吸引全球资金布局。 4 月 4 日至 5 月 1 日，发达市场转 为净流出 134 亿美元，新兴市场净流出 17 亿美元。期间，新兴市场 股价表现跑赢发达市场 2%（图表 2-3）。我们预期，全球资金短期有 望重新从发达市场流入新兴市场，尤其是流向那些估值较低，拥挤度 较低、盈利预期持续改善的新兴市场国家或地区。 图表 14: 4 月南向资金净流入前 20 大个股 浦银国际研究 浦银国际月度资金流 浦银国际月度资金流：全球资金 仓位调整，中国会是目的地吗？ 2024 年 5 月 7 日 中国市场性价比凸显，外资出现回流的迹象。 根据 EPFR，4 月 4 日 至 5 月 1 日，无论是主动型还是被动型外资仍在净流出中国股市（图 表 4）。值得注意的是，4 月 25 日至 5 月 1 日，外资净流出的幅度明 显缩小，部分外资可能开始回流中国市场，尤其是港股市场（图表 5）。 5 月 2 日至 3 日，在南向资金休市的情况下，我们发现港股市场仍维 持强劲的上涨趋势，交易量也较大，反映港股 ...