Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TSMC (2330.TT) with a target price of 1,401.1 TWD, representing a potential upside of 27% [1][13]. - For TSMC's ADR (TSM.US), the target price is set at 256.3 USD, indicating a potential upside of 24% [1][13]. Core Insights - TSMC is expected to benefit significantly from the ongoing AI demand, which is projected to drive growth in 2025 and beyond [6][9]. - The company has raised its earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026, reflecting strong anticipated revenue growth driven by AI-related income [1][6]. - TSMC's AI-related revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40% over the next five years, contributing to an overall revenue CAGR of 20% [6][9]. Financial Projections - TSMC's revenue is projected to reach 3,713,586 million TWD in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28% [2][11]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 58.3% in 2025, with net profit projected at 1,555,461 million TWD, reflecting a 33% increase from the previous year [2][11]. - The basic earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 60.0 TWD in 2025, up from 45.2 TWD in 2024 [2][11]. Performance Review and Guidance - TSMC's Q4 2024 revenue was 868,461 million TWD, a 39% increase year-on-year, driven by strong demand for 3nm and 5nm technology nodes [9][10]. - The company provided guidance for Q1 2025, expecting revenue to grow by 41% year-on-year, despite a seasonal decline due to smartphone demand [9][10]. - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was reported at 59.0%, exceeding previous guidance, and the operating margin was 49% [9][10]. Valuation - The report employs an EV/EBITDA valuation method, assigning TSMC a target EV/EBITDA of 14x under the base case scenario, leading to the target price of 1,401.1 TWD [13][14]. - For the ADR, the valuation considers a 20% premium over the local stock price, resulting in a target price of 256.3 USD [13][14].

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 策略观点 中央经济工作会议释放积极政策信号， 扩内需为首位 策略观点 | 投资策略 浦银国际策略观点：中央经济工作会议 释放积极政策信号，扩内需为首位 赖烨烨 首席策略分析师 melody_lai@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6441 2024 年 12 月 13 日 政策刺激继续，将扩大内需摆在更重要位置。根据我们宏观分析师金 晓雯的观点，新一年经济工作重点将聚焦在继续加码政策刺激以稳经 济和促通胀上，尤其在扩大内需方面。在财政和货币政策上，明确提 出将提高赤字率、超长期特别国债和专项债发行规模，"实施适度宽松 的货币政策"，并将"适时降准降息"。会议还强调"稳住楼市股市"， 房地产和股市的企稳将有助于提振居民的消费能力和意愿。重点产业 政策涉及地产、消费、基建、科技和生育等多个领域。我们认为会议 明确了两大投资主线，将是贯穿明年全年的投资方向。 主线一：大力提振消费以扩大国内需求。会议强调，"实施提振消费专 项行动，加力扩围实施'两新'政策，更大力度支持'两重'项目， 加强财政与金融的配合，以政府投资有效带动社会投资，大力实施城 市更新"。今年以来，大规模设备更新和消 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Aikang Medical (1789 HK) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 6 8 [1][2] Core Views - Aikang Medical is positioned as a leading domestic orthopedic joint company with strong performance in the national joint procurement program The company is expected to see accelerated revenue growth in 2025 as the impact of industry anti-corruption measures subsides and joint procurement risks are cleared [1] - The company is a pioneer in applying metal 3D printing to orthopedic implants and is leveraging technologies such as 3D printing ICOS and surgical robots to build a digital orthopedic platform which will help expand its presence in the mid-to-high-end market [1] - The orthopedic industry is under short-term pressure due to anti-corruption measures but will benefit in the long term from a large patient base increasing surgical penetration rates and domestic substitution [1] - Aikang Medical's core products have cleared procurement risks and the company is expected to see improved earnings visibility in 2025 with revenue growth potentially accelerating on a lower base in 2024 [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 22% from 2023 to 2026E with 2024E and 2025E revenue expected to reach RMB 1 305 million and RMB 1 625 million respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 22 9% from 2023 to 2026E with 2024E and 2025E net profit expected to reach RMB 261 million and RMB 324 million respectively [3] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decline from 30 8x in 2023 to 17 5x in 2025E reflecting improved earnings growth [3] Industry Overview - The orthopedic industry continues to face short-term pressure from anti-corruption measures but is expected to recover in 2025 with revenue growth driven by a large patient base increasing surgical penetration rates and domestic substitution [16] - The industry saw a 3% YoY increase in revenue and a 1% YoY increase in net profit in 9M24 with signs of recovery in 1Q/2Q/3Q24 showing revenue growth of -9% +3% and +17% respectively [1] - Domestic substitution is expected to accelerate as foreign brands focus more on top-tier hospitals and reduce overall investment in China [1] Company-Specific Analysis - Aikang Medical's hip and knee joint products which contributed 85% of revenue in 1H24 performed well in the national joint procurement program with most products achieving price increases in the procurement [1] - The company is a leader in 3D printing technology for orthopedic implants and has developed the ICOS platform which offers customized solutions for patients and surgeons [2] - Aikang Medical has a dual-brand strategy in overseas markets with Aikang and JRI which provides a full product line advantage and potential for scale making international markets a key growth driver [2] Valuation and Target Price - The target price of HKD 6 8 is based on a 22x 2025E PE multiple in line with the company's historical average over the past three years [2] - The target price implies a 27% upside from the current price of HKD 5 4 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the global AI computing chip industry, with specific buy ratings for AMD and MediaTek, and a sell rating for Intel [15][20]. Core Insights - The global AI industry is experiencing explosive growth, with the generative AI market expected to reach nearly $1 trillion by 2030, driven by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40% from 2024 to 2030 [15][52]. - AI computing chips are essential for the development of AI models, benefiting significantly from the industry's high growth [15][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI computing chips in both cloud and edge applications, highlighting the increasing demand for these chips across various sectors, including smartphones and electric vehicles [17][20]. Summary by Sections Global AI Computing Chip Industry Investment Highlights - The AI industry is in a rapid growth phase, with significant capital expenditure from cloud service providers on AI computing chips [20]. - The demand for AI computing chips is expected to grow as AI models penetrate consumer devices, enhancing user experience [20][28]. Overview of the Global AI Industry: Explosive Growth - The generative AI market has seen a sixfold increase from 2020 to 2023, with substantial growth expected to continue [52]. - The report notes that the AI industry is still in its early stages, with ongoing advancements in AI model performance and capabilities [21][23]. AI Computing Chip Development Trends - GPUs are identified as the most critical computing foundation for generative AI, with CPUs and SoCs also benefiting from increased demand [20]. - The report highlights the rapid expansion of AI computing chip production capacity, leading to a more balanced supply-demand dynamic [20]. Review and Outlook for US Tech Stocks - The report suggests that the current economic environment, including a potential interest rate decrease, could support the valuation of growth tech stocks [20]. - The Nasdaq and M7 indices are expected to show long-term growth potential driven by fundamental factors [20]. Company-Specific Coverage - AMD is positioned to benefit from multiple AI computing chip layouts, receiving a buy rating with a target price of $168.7 [11]. - MediaTek is also rated as a buy, with a target price of NT$1,468.5, benefiting from AI penetration in consumer electronics [13]. - Intel, while benefiting from AI demand, is rated as a sell due to delayed financial performance, with a target price of $20.4 [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mobileye (MBLY.US) with a target price of $16.2, indicating a potential upside of 19% [2][6]. Core Insights - Mobileye's Q3 revenue was $486 million, a year-over-year decline of 8% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 11%, outperforming consensus estimates [2][11]. - The company expects continued strong cash flow and has confidence in its technological capabilities, particularly in AI and related technologies, despite lowering earnings forecasts for 2024-2026 [2][3]. - The report highlights the normalization of inventory levels among downstream Tier 1 and OEM customers, with EyeQ chip shipments expected to recover significantly by 2025 [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue: $486 million, down 8% YoY, up 11% QoQ [11]. - Q3 2024 adjusted gross margin: 68.1%, down from 69.1% YoY [11]. - Full-year 2024 revenue guidance: $1.62 to $1.66 billion [3]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected at $199 million, a significant decrease from previous estimates [12]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2024E: $1.635 billion, with a year-over-year decline of 21% [5][12]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025E: $364 million, reflecting an 83% increase from 2024E [5][12]. - The report anticipates a recovery in revenue growth rates, with 2025E expected to grow by 18% and 2026E by 23% [5][12]. Valuation Metrics - The report employs a DCF valuation method, maintaining a target price of $16.2, corresponding to a 2025E adjusted P/E ratio of 35.9x [4][15]. - The WACC is estimated at 8.0%, with a perpetual growth rate of 3% [4][13]. Market Expectations - The report outlines optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for Mobileye's stock price, with a bullish target of $18.8 and a bearish target of $11.7, reflecting varying expectations for revenue growth and market conditions [18].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the tourism industry, indicating a resilient market with a recommendation to focus on OTA and domestic hotel sectors [2]. Core Insights - The tourism market is experiencing steady growth, with domestic travel reaching 765 million trips during the National Day holiday, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% and a 10.2% increase compared to 2019 [1]. - Total domestic tourist spending during the holiday was approximately 700.82 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.3% and a 7.9% increase compared to 2019 [1]. - The report highlights a trend of increasing travel demand despite a decrease in average spending per person, attributed to lower prices for flights and accommodations [1]. - International travel is also recovering, with outbound travel bookings nearly doubling year-on-year, particularly from lower-tier cities [1][2]. Summary by Sections Domestic Travel Trends - Domestic travel during the National Day holiday saw 765 million trips, with a 5.9% increase year-on-year and a 10.2% increase compared to 2019 [1]. - Average spending per person was approximately 916 yuan, nearly flat year-on-year, recovering to 98% of 2019 levels [1]. - The decline in travel costs, with flight prices down 15.1% and hotel prices down 6%, has contributed to the increase in travel demand [1]. International Travel Trends - Outbound travel has shown strong growth, with bookings increasing by nearly 100% year-on-year [1]. - The majority of outbound travel destinations are concentrated in East Asia and Southeast Asia [1]. - Residents from lower-tier cities are increasingly participating in international travel, with a threefold increase in orders from these areas during the holiday [1]. Market Outlook - The report indicates that the tourism market will continue to show resilience, with a trend of rising travel demand and falling prices likely to benefit OTA and domestic hotel sectors [2]. - The focus on lower-tier cities and the potential for international business expansion are highlighted as key areas for growth [2].

Economic Indicators - The core CPI inflation rate in the US for August rose to 0.28%, up from 0.17% in July, exceeding the market expectation of 0.2%[1] - Overall CPI growth increased by 0.04 percentage points to 0.19%, aligning with market expectations[1] - Year-on-year, the overall CPI decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 2.5%, while the core CPI remained unchanged at 3.2%[1] Housing and Services - Housing prices saw a month-on-month increase of 0.52%, the highest since February of this year[1] - The owner’s equivalent rent inflation rate rose to 0.50% in August, up from 0.36% in July, marking another peak since February[1] - The inflation rate for temporary lodging surged to 1.75% in August, up from 0.22% in July, driven by seasonal tourism[1] Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls added 142,000 jobs in August, a recovery from July but still below market expectations[2] - The unemployment rate slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in August, with temporary unemployment dropping from 1.062 million in July to 872,000[2] - The three-month moving average for new jobs fell to 116,000, the lowest since the second half of 2020[2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The report suggests a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, supported by the recent inflation and employment data[2] - The potential for a 50 basis point cut in future meetings remains if economic data indicates signs of recession[2] - The JOLT job openings to unemployment ratio fell to 1.07 in July, below the pre-pandemic average of 1.19, indicating a weakening labor market[2]

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 财务模型更新 财务模型更新 | 消费行业 贝泰妮（300957.CH）：并购子品牌驱动 收入增长，主品牌调整成效仍需时间 贝泰妮 2Q24 收入同比录得增长 13.5%，主要是 2023 年收购的悦江旗 下品牌 Za 和泊美收入共人民币 1.3 亿元带动。如剔除悦江收入，贝泰 妮可比口径在 2Q24 仅同比增长 5.1%，薇诺娜品牌的战略调整效果尚 未展现。我们下调贝泰妮 2024-2026E 盈利预测，下调目标价至人民币 43.0 元，维持贝泰妮"持有"评级。 悦江为收入带来增量，主品牌增长乏力：尽管贝泰妮 2Q24 收入同比 增长 13.5%，但这主要是因为悦江旗下 Za 和泊美两品牌录得收入人民 币 1.3 亿元。由于悦江仅仅是在 2023 年 10 月 31 日并入公司，因此 上年同期无此项收入。如剔除悦江带来的收入，贝泰妮自有品牌 2Q24 收入仅同比增长 5.1%，低于 1Q24 自有品牌 11.1%的同比增长。虽然 悦江的加入有力地提高了公司多品牌矩阵的成熟度，并增加了收入来 源，但是目前悦江的收入贡献占比仍较少，仅占公司收入的 7.4%，尚 未能有效地拉动公司整体收入的 ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 浦银国际 公司研究 华熙生物 （688363.CH） 华熙生物（688363.CH）：调整进行 时，业绩反弹道阻且长 在功能性护肤品业务条线大举调整的背景下，2Q24 公司收入负增长 18.1%，又因资产及信用减值令归母净利润同比下降 56%。季度业绩的 同比下降再次印证我们对于华熙生物业务重回增长轨道仍需时间的观 点。我们维持华熙生物"持有"评级，下调目标价至人民币 48.9 元。 功能性护肤品调整进行中，但恢复增长有待时日：公司自 2023 年中开 启对功能性护肤品业务线的调整，也直接造成了 1H24 功能性护肤品 业务收入同比下降 30%。公司表示，在四大品牌中，尽管润百颜的业 务及组织结构调整已相对完善，但收入仍同比下降超 10%，其余品牌 则降幅更高。作为对公司收入贡献最大的业务线，功能性护肤品收入 的下降也导致公司整体 1H24 收入增速由正转负。我们认为，功能性护 肤品条线在下半年将环比有所增长，主要是由于：（1）新产品：润百 颜、夸迪两大品牌将推出新产品，利用新产品、新原料吸引消费者； （2）提早备战双十一：管理层表示四大品牌均将双十一作为业绩达成 的主要 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Baosheng (3813.HK), with a target price of HKD 0.73, indicating a potential upside of 15.9% from the current price of HKD 0.63 [2][4]. Core Insights - Despite a significant revenue decline of 9% in 1H24, Baosheng achieved a 10% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders through cost reduction and efficiency improvements, showcasing strong operational management [2][9]. - The company’s ability to expand its operating profit margin amidst declining revenues reflects effective cost control and operational efficiency enhancements [2][9]. - The second half of 2024 will largely depend on revenue performance, but the benefits of cost-cutting measures are expected to continue [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: The company reported a revenue of RMB 18,514 million for 2024E, reflecting an 8% decline year-on-year [3][11]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 516 million for 2024E, a 5% increase compared to the previous year [3][11]. - **Profit Margins**: The operating profit margin is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase anticipated in 2024 [2][9]. - **Earnings Per Share**: The diluted earnings per share is projected to be HKD 0.10 for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio close to 55%, leading to a dividend yield of 9.5% based on current stock price [2][9][10]. Operational Efficiency - The company has successfully reduced overall operating expenses by 9% year-on-year, attributed to the closure of inefficient stores and optimization of rental costs [2][9]. - The gross profit margin improved by 2.0 percentage points in 2Q24, driven by better retail discount management and a shift in channel structure due to a decline in wholesale revenue [2][9]. Market Outlook - The demand in the international brand retail market remains weak, and Baosheng is expected to focus on maintaining healthy inventory levels and improving retail discounts in the second half of 2024 [2][9]. - The company may increase the scale of its wholesale business to compensate for the decline in direct store sales, which could positively impact channel structure and gross margins [2][9].