宏观经济 | 数据点评 扫码关注浦银国际研究 美国 11 月 CPI 远低于预期，为明年 1 月降息保留可能性 美国 11 月 CPI 通胀率超预期下滑。按同比看，美国整体 CPI 通胀率从 9 月的 3.0%下滑至 11 月的 2.7%，远低于市场预期的 3.1%。而核心 CPI 通胀率同期亦超预期下滑 0.4 个百分点到 2.6%（预期：3.0%，图表 1）， 创下了 2021 年 4 月以来的新低。由于此前美国政府"停摆"导致 10 月大部分价格数据收集的缺失，美国劳工统计局此次并未公布 CPI 环 比数据和 10 月同比数据。因此，此次数据发布的可靠性受到了市场和 美联储的质疑。 从同比细分数据来看，核心服务 CPI 的下滑、尤其是住房价格的走低， 是核心 CPI 超预期下滑的主要原因。核心服务 CPI 同比通胀率从 9 月 的 3.5%下滑至 11 月的 3.0%。其中住房 CPI 通胀率同期从 3.6%下降到 3.0%是主要推动力（业主等价租金 CPI 通胀率下滑 0.4 个百分点到 3.4%， 离家住宿 CPI 大跌 4 个百分点到-4.1%，图表 2）。排除住房外的服务 CPI 通胀率亦下滑 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the sentiment index for the Hong Kong stock market is at 59.1, a significant drop from the previous high of 83 in November, but still above the pessimistic threshold of 40 [1][3] - The report highlights that the market sentiment has been volatile due to fluctuating expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a pullback in the US AI sector, although the sentiment index has shown some recovery following the anticipated rate cuts [1][3] - The Hang Seng Index's forward P/E ratio is currently at 12.7, reflecting a 5% decline from its peak earlier in the year, suggesting a potential period of market consolidation without new catalysts [3][6] Group 2 - The report identifies that out of the 13 indicators constituting the sentiment index, only 2 have shown strong improvement, namely increased stock buybacks and a decrease in the put/call ratio, while 9 indicators have weakened [3][6] - The suggested short-term investment strategy is a "barbell strategy," focusing on both defensive sectors such as banks, insurance, and utilities, as well as technology stocks with strong AI attributes and reasonable valuations [3][6] - The report notes that the IPO fundraising amount has decreased significantly, with a total of 10.76 billion HKD raised in December, down 76% compared to the same period last year, indicating a challenging environment for new listings [6][11]

数据 点评 中国宏观数据点评：实体经济数据 11 月 增速继续放缓，明年年初政策刺激可期 核心观点：11 月实体经济数据增速继续放缓，其中需求的走弱仍快 于供给。在没有假期错位效应影响下，供给端的工业生产略微走弱， 而内需的持续放缓则令人担忧：房产销售动能仍在持续走弱。财政政 策支持对基建投资的推动作用尚未明显体现。零售增速的下滑速度亦 有所加快。不过，在超预期的进出口数据的支持下，我们预计今年仍 能实现 5%左右的经济增速。短期来看，内需的持续走弱或触发明年 年初政策刺激提前发力，潜在政策支持包括降息降准、新一轮房地产 调控政策、地方政府专项债前置发行等。中期来看，结合上周刚举行 的中央经济工作会议，我们维持明年经济增速目标或定在 5%左右以 及政策刺激将是适度的基本判断。 11 月社会消费品零售总额同比增速连续 6 个月下滑，或受到房地产 销售走弱和消费品以旧换新政策退坡的影响。社会消费品零售总额 同比增速从 10 月的 2.9%进一步下滑到 11 月的 1.3%，显著低于市场 预期的 2.9%（图表 2）。细分来看，商品零售增速的减慢（走低 1.8 个百分点到 1.0%）仍是主要原因（图表 1）。其中， ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of boosting domestic demand and economic growth, with a focus on moderate policy stimulus that is data-driven and efficiency-oriented [3] - The central economic work conference outlines three main investment themes for the upcoming year: expanding domestic demand, promoting technological and industrial innovation, and advancing the construction of a unified national market [3] Group 1: Expanding Domestic Demand - The conference highlights the need to implement special actions to boost consumption, develop urban and rural income plans, and optimize the supply of quality goods and services [3] - It suggests that improving consumer capacity, enhancing willingness to consume, and creating favorable consumption conditions are essential for driving future consumption growth in China [3] - Key sectors to focus on include new retail, dining, hospitality, cultural tourism, and modern services such as healthcare, elderly care, childcare, and finance [3] Group 2: Technological and Industrial Innovation - The report calls for a comprehensive plan to advance education and technology talent development, strengthen the role of enterprises in innovation, and implement high-quality development actions for key industrial chains [3] - It emphasizes the strategic direction of artificial intelligence (AI) development, advocating for the "AI+" initiative to enhance technological research and industrial upgrading [3] - Investment opportunities are identified in high-end manufacturing, renewable energy, and AI-related industries, with a particular focus on AI application implementation in the coming year [3] Group 3: Unified National Market Construction - The conference indicates the need to establish regulations for a unified national market and to address "involution" competition [3] - The "anti-involution" approach is expected to support inflation and improve supply-demand relationships in traditional cyclical industries, while also benefiting emerging industries by regulating competition [3] - Sectors likely to benefit include new energy vehicles, e-commerce, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, as they may experience enhanced output efficiency [3] Short-term Market Judgments and Investment Strategies - The report notes that while the central economic work conference has released positive policy signals, the short-term market will still be influenced by liquidity factors and market sentiment [3] - It suggests a balanced investment strategy, combining defensive sectors like banking, insurance, telecommunications, and utilities with growth sectors in technology, particularly those with strong AI attributes and reasonable valuations [3] - The report recommends focusing on AI-leading companies in the Hong Kong stock market and opportunities in the A-share computing power industry chain and AI application layer [3]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in December, aligning with expectations, marking the third rate cut since September[2] - The Fed plans to purchase $40 billion in short-term bonds over the next 30 days to maintain adequate reserve supply[2] - The Fed's internal divisions regarding rate cuts have increased, with three voting members opposing the decision, the highest dissent since 2019[5] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The Fed significantly raised its GDP forecast for 2026 by 0.5 percentage points to 2.3%[3] - Unemployment rate projections for 2026 and 2027 remain at 4.4% and 4.2%, respectively, with slight adjustments made to future years[6] - The PCE inflation rate forecast for 2026 was lowered by 0.2 percentage points to 2.4%[4] Group 3: Future Rate Expectations - The Fed maintains expectations for two additional 25 basis point rate cuts in the coming year, with a target federal funds rate of 3%-3.25% by year-end[1] - Future rate adjustments will depend on economic data and evolving risks, indicating a cautious approach[4] - The potential for rate hikes in the second half of next year is limited, as the economic conditions may not warrant such actions[1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - US stocks - Overweight [34] - European stocks - Equal - weight [35] - Chinese A - shares - Equal - weight [36] - Hong Kong stocks - Overweight [39] - Japan - Equal - weight [40] - Indian market - Overweight [42] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global stock market in November was generally poor due to insufficient liquidity and the US AI bubble theory. Tech - heavy indices underperformed their respective blue - chip indices. Different regions' stock markets had their own influencing factors, and investment ratings were adjusted based on various factors such as liquidity, interest rate expectations, and corporate earnings [31][33][34] - In the bond market, different regions and types of bonds had different performances in November. The US bond market was mainly influenced by "interest - rate cut games," the Japanese bond yield rose due to economic stimulus plans and inflation expectations, and the Chinese bond market lacked a clear direction [55][59] - The foreign exchange market was affected by central bank policies and interest - rate expectations. The US dollar index was volatile, the yen was weak, and the RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar [63][64] - In the commodity market, gold rose significantly, oil was weak, and copper was in a volatile state, each affected by supply - demand relationships, interest - rate expectations, and geopolitical factors [68] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overseas Macroeconomics 3.1.1 US Macroeconomic Review - ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000 jobs, the largest decline since March 2023, indicating a potential 25bp interest - rate cut by the Fed in December [9] - In September, PCE and core PCE inflation data provided support for an interest - rate cut [11] - The November Michigan consumer confidence index was at a low level, which may affect economic recovery [16] - The November manufacturing PMI was in the expansion range but lower than expected, and future factory output expansion may slow down [17] 3.2 Domestic Macroeconomics 3.2.1 Chinese Macroeconomic Review - In October, consumption growth slowed down, affected by car and home - appliance sales [21] - Exports decreased in October, while imports increased. The overall import - export volume in the first 10 months increased [21] - From January to October, fixed - asset investment declined, especially in the manufacturing sector [21] - In October, credit was weak, especially on the household side [21] - Industrial production in October was affected by multiple factors, but equipment and high - tech manufacturing showed good growth [24] - In October, CPI and PPI showed certain trends, and core inflation continued to rise [24] - From January to October, real - estate investment and sales declined, and policy effects were limited [24] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.3.1 November Global Central Bank Policy Review - The Bank of England maintained its benchmark interest rate, with divided views among committee members, related to the upcoming fiscal budget [27] - The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged due to rising inflation and uncertain economic prospects [27] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the official cash rate due to high unemployment [27] 3.4 November Major Stock Market Review and Outlook 3.4.1 Global Stock Market Performance - The global stock market in November was generally poor, affected by liquidity and the AI bubble theory. Tech - heavy indices underperformed [31][33] 3.4.2 Regional Stock Market Analysis - US stocks: Despite short - term challenges, they are maintained at an overweight rating due to expected liquidity improvement, interest - rate cut expectations, and new AI narratives [34] - European stocks: They are maintained at an equal - weight rating, affected by multiple factors such as central bank policies and geopolitical issues [35] - Chinese A - shares: Maintained at an equal - weight rating, with policy, capital, and structural opportunities as key points [36] - Hong Kong stocks: Upgraded to an overweight rating due to expected profit improvement, attractive valuations, and improved liquidity [39] - Japan: Maintained at an equal - weight rating, with interest - rate hike expectations and government stimulus policies as influencing factors [40] - Indian market: Upgraded to an overweight rating due to central bank support, potential trade agreements, and reasonable valuations [41] 3.5 November Chinese Offshore Debt Market Review and Outlook 3.5.1 Primary Market - In November, 70 bonds were issued in the primary market of Chinese offshore debt, including 23 US - dollar bonds worth $10.21 billion and 47 offshore RMB bonds worth 82.35 billion RMB. Issuance increased compared to the previous month but was lower than the same period last year for US - dollar bonds [47] 3.5.2 Secondary Market - As of November 30, the Markit iBoxx Chinese US - dollar investment - grade bond index rose, while the high - yield bond index fell. Different sectors such as real estate, urban investment, and finance also had different performance trends [50][52] 3.6 November Overseas Bond Market Performance Review and Outlook 3.6.1 November Major Bond Market Performance - Different bond indices in the US, Europe, Asia, etc., had different performance trends in November, with yields and returns varying [55] 3.6.2 Regional Bond Market Analysis - US: The bond market was affected by "interest - rate cut games," and yields showed a "first - up - then - down" trend [59] - Japan: Bond yields rose due to economic stimulus plans and inflation expectations [59] - China: The bond market lacked a clear direction, but future sentiment may improve [59] 3.7 November Foreign Exchange Market Performance Review and Outlook - The US dollar index was volatile, affected by Fed officials' views on interest - rate cuts. The yen was weak, and the RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar [63][64] 3.8 November Commodity Market Performance Review and Outlook - Gold rose significantly, driven by interest - rate cut expectations and central bank gold purchases. Oil was weak due to oversupply concerns, and copper was volatile due to supply and demand factors [68] 3.9 This Month's Selected Funds - Various types of funds, including money - market funds, bond funds, and stock funds from different regions, are presented with their performance data [70]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the uncertainty in the macro - environment is expected to decline. China's economic growth may be driven by rebalancing, with a slight slowdown to 4.7%. The US economy may be driven by fiscal - stimulated consumption and AI investment, and there may be three 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the end of next year [3][10]. - In the Chinese market, valuation growth will shift from being liquidity - driven to profit - driven. Hong Kong stocks are cost - effective. Investment should focus on high - growth stocks and core asset themes such as overseas expansion, AI, and new consumption [3][10]. - In the consumer industry, the competitive environment is expected to improve. The investment strategy is to embrace new trends and new consumption. Traditional consumer industries offer opportunities in individual stock fundamental reversals, while new consumer companies focus on valuation rebounds after improved performance certainty [3][10]. - The pharmaceutical industry is optimistic. The innovative drug and CXO sectors are recommended due to factors like China's innovative drug R & D capabilities, policy support, and expected improvement in overseas biopharmaceutical investment and financing [4][10]. - The AI industry in the technology sector will continue to grow strongly, driving the growth of multiple industries and experiencing explosive demand growth in downstream applications [4][10]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 2026 China Macroeconomic Outlook: The Road to Economic Rebalancing in the First Year of the 15th Five - Year Plan - **Core Situation in 2025**: Thanks to pre - emptive policy efforts and better - than - expected external demand, the annual economic growth target of about 5% can be achieved. However, economic development still faces challenges such as imbalance between supply and demand, the unstable real estate industry, and low inflation [11][16]. - **2026 Outlook**: - **External and Internal Uncertainties**: External trade relations between China and the US may reach a new dynamic balance, and internal risks such as local government debt and real estate have decreased [17]. - **Challenges**: Economic imbalance persists, the real estate industry remains unstable, and low inflation affects investment and consumption confidence [18][19]. - **Policy**: Fiscal policy will maintain a 4.0% budget deficit rate, issue 1.6 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, and may increase local government special bonds. It focuses on promoting consumption and stabilizing investment. Monetary policy will remain loose, with possible interest rate cuts of 10 - 20 basis points and reserve requirement ratio cuts of 50 - 100 basis points. Real estate policies will be moderately advanced [21][22]. - **Economic Growth**: Real economic growth is expected to slow to 4.7%. Consumption and investment will contribute 4.3 percentage points, higher than in 2025. The economic growth rate may be low in the first half and high in the second half. Inflation is expected to improve, with the CPI rising to 0.6% and the nominal GDP growth rate rising to 4.5%. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate will remain stable [23][24]. 2026 US Macroeconomic Outlook: The Road to Economic Recovery Led by Policy Stimulus No information provided. 2026 China Market Strategy Outlook: Demand - Driven Growth, Embracing New Core Assets - **Investment Strategy**: China's market liquidity will remain abundant, but valuation growth will be profit - driven. Hong Kong stocks are cost - effective. Investment should focus on high - growth stocks and core asset themes like overseas expansion, AI, and new consumption [10]. Consumer Industry 2026 Outlook: Find Opportunities in the Quiet and the Ordinary - **Industry Environment**: In a weak demand recovery environment, the competitive environment is expected to improve through upstream capacity reduction, downstream inventory clearance, and anti - involution [10]. - **Investment Strategy**: The key is to embrace new trends and new consumption. High - cost - performance domestic substitution, emotional consumption, health - related consumption, new retail formats, and domestic brands going overseas are important investment directions. Traditional consumer industries focus on individual stock fundamental reversals, and new consumer companies focus on valuation rebounds [10]. - **Preferred Stocks**: Pop Mart (9992.HK), Luckin Coffee (LKNCY.US), and Topsports (6110.HK) are preferred in 2026 [10]. Pharmaceutical Industry 2026 Outlook: Reach New Heights - **Optimistic Outlook**: The pharmaceutical sector is optimistic. The innovative drug sector is recommended due to China's leading R & D capabilities, policy support, and more biotech companies entering the profit stage. The CXO sector is also promising as overseas biopharmaceutical investment and financing is expected to improve [4][10]. Technology Industry 2026 Outlook: AI Algorithm Iteration Expands the Computing Power Base, and the Prosperous Ecosystem Reshapes the Growth Boundary - **AI Growth**: The AI industry will continue to grow strongly. Its underlying technology is in a flywheel - iteration stage, driving the growth of multiple industries and experiencing explosive demand growth in downstream applications such as C - end, B - end, and G - end. In the long run, it may bring growth to emerging industries like embodied intelligence [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luckin Coffee (LKNCY.US) [8][22]. Core Views - Luckin Coffee is focusing on scale and market share expansion, with short-term same-store sales and profit margins potentially under pressure due to increased delivery costs [8]. - The company has accelerated store openings, netting 3,008 new stores in Q3 2025, marking a record for quarterly openings in the past three years [8]. - Despite short-term challenges, Luckin Coffee is expected to benefit from long-term structural trends in the coffee industry, including increased market concentration and consumer habit formation [8]. Financial Performance Overview - In Q3 2025, Luckin Coffee's GAAP operating profit grew by 12.9% year-on-year, with same-store revenue increasing by 14.4% [8]. - Revenue for Q3 2025 reached RMB 15.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50.2% [8]. - The gross margin expanded by 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, despite significant pressure from raw material costs [8]. - Delivery costs surged by 211% in Q3 2025, leading to a decline in GAAP operating profit margin by 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Luckin Coffee are as follows: - 2023: RMB 24.9 billion (YoY change: 87.3%) - 2024: RMB 34.5 billion (YoY change: 38.4%) - 2025E: RMB 50.3 billion (YoY change: 45.9%) - 2026E: RMB 65.2 billion (YoY change: 29.6%) - 2027E: RMB 73.5 billion (YoY change: 12.7%) [9]. - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: RMB 2.8 billion (YoY change: 483.3%) - 2024: RMB 2.9 billion (YoY change: 2.9%) - 2025E: RMB 3.6 billion (YoY change: 21.3%) - 2026E: RMB 4.1 billion (YoY change: 15.1%) - 2027E: RMB 6.5 billion (YoY change: 59.6%) [9]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the competitive landscape will improve, leading to increased industry concentration, which will benefit Luckin Coffee as a market leader [8]. - The company is expected to continue leveraging its strong product innovation, brand marketing, and efficient supply chain to maintain its leadership position in the coffee industry [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD.US) with a target price of $123, indicating a potential upside of 3% from the current price of $119.58 [1][2][8]. Core Insights - Pinduoduo's revenue growth has stabilized, with a 9% year-on-year increase in Q3 2025, primarily driven by record high transaction service revenue, which grew by 10% [8]. - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 314 million RMB, exceeding market expectations of 251 million RMB, reflecting a 14% year-on-year growth [8]. - The company is cautious about future guidance, indicating that ongoing investments may lead to profit volatility [8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - FY23: 247,639 million RMB - FY24: 393,836 million RMB - FY25E: 430,832 million RMB - FY26E: 480,330 million RMB - FY27E: 548,415 million RMB [2][9]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - Operating profit for FY25E is projected at 94,679 million RMB, with an adjusted net profit of 109,881 million RMB [2][9]. - The adjusted net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 29.0%, slightly down from 31.5% in Q2 2025 [8]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - The adjusted target P/E ratio for FY25E is set at 12x, with a projected decline to 9.1x by FY27E [2][9]. Market Expectations - The report indicates a cautious outlook for Pinduoduo, with short-term catalysts lacking for revenue growth, suggesting that the company may align more closely with overall market growth rates [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 286.9, representing a potential upside of 32.0% from the current price of HKD 217.4 [1][5][15]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the company is not solely reliant on the popularity of its Labubu IP, but rather operates as a platform for creating and commercializing multiple IPs. The ability to launch new successful IPs is seen as a key competitive advantage [5]. - Recent sales trends in the U.S. market have shown a recovery, with expectations for continued growth during the holiday season. The report suggests that the recent slowdown in sales was largely due to pre-sales in previous months [5]. - The company has significant growth potential in the North American and European markets, which currently represent a small portion of total revenue. The report highlights the potential for expansion through physical retail stores in these regions [5]. - The current valuation is considered attractive, with a P/E ratio of 15 times the estimated earnings for 2026, indicating high value for investors [5]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company is projected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with estimated revenues of RMB 38,003 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 191.5% [7][10]. - Net profit is expected to reach RMB 12,920 million in 2025, representing a significant increase of 313.4% compared to the previous year [7][10]. - The report outlines a steady improvement in profit margins, with gross profit margins projected to rise to 70.8% by 2025 [10][11]. Market Performance - The company's stock has experienced volatility, but recent data suggests a recovery in market sentiment, with short-selling activity decreasing [5]. - The report notes that the company's sales in the domestic market have shown impressive growth, with online sales increasing by 212% in the first half of 2025 [11]. Regional Revenue Breakdown - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a 440% increase in overseas revenue, with North America showing a staggering growth rate of 1,142% [11]. - The report indicates that the company has only a limited number of retail stores in North America and Europe, suggesting significant room for growth in these markets [5].